The Stock Market is about to SHOCK EVERYONE.. (Big Catalyst Coming)

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. We have a very important video to get into today. Number one, we had big news for the stock market today. And if this news does actually get confirmed, it would be something that I would expect to power a broadening move, a larger rally in the markets for the next couple of weeks. So, that's number one. Number two, what's going on with AI hardware stocks? How has this story changed and developed over the last couple of days? Number three, we have big catalyst for next week. I will share that with you in this video and why they could be important for the markets. Number four, Mark Newton with Fundstrat says, quote, "Stocks will run to new highs potentially even by next week." Number five, my thoughts about the market ahead just broadly. What do you do right now? What am I doing right now? And number six, I sold another $50,000 worth of stock today. And this is a stock that a lot of people own. There's a very specific reason for it. And I'm I'm going to share the logic behind it in this video because I think a lot of people can benefit dramatically from the logic behind why I sold. It's not because I'm bearish on the stock. It's because something fundamentally like changed from when I was buying the stock and we like doubled up on this stock. The stock doubled for us. So ladies and gentlemen, we got a lot to get into in today's video. But before we begin, if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, we are up 93 and a half% year to date in the trading community. Look, I am not a financial adviser. I'm not a financial planner. You are not guaranteed to make money if you join this. What I do is document what I'm doing, why I like a stock, why I think there's opportunity, and that's it. The only thing that I am striving to do is beat the markets to the opportunity. When Wall Street is emotional, I like to execute if the opportunity makes sense. If a stock meets the criteria here, and that is how we are up 90 plus% year to date. That's it. That's all you have to do is is beat Wall Street to the opportunity. And I think we do that exceptionally well. If you guys would like to come join us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. So, number one, what was the big news for the stock market today? Well, that's kind of a loaded question because there was a lot of news today for the stock market. But one thing in particular that I do think the markets are are heavily discounting that could happen that would be an outsized positive event would be the war with Iran ending. Now, we've been following this story for many months and in the last couple of weeks, the story has kind of changed a bit, right? Scott Bessant said yesterday that this economic D-Day means we're not heading back into another kinetic war with Iran. So the bombs, they're basically done at this point unless Iran were to escalate in an offensive capability. That is kind of a deescalation right? A couple of weeks ago, Trump said he would be willing to just leave the Middle East if the straight of her moose opened without having a nuclear deal signed um like beforehand. Right? That's not a stipulation to actually ending the physical conflict. Well, Iran is in talks with Oman to finalize shipping corridors through the straight of Hermoose. That is step number one. Once that happens, the war basically ends. Well, a couple of days ago, it was announced via a US official that the US and Iran had communicated that there was positive developments, but Trump said, "Yep, don't talk with Iran until they're ready to make a deal to end this thing." putting that together and now China calling on the US and Iran to return to talks which China really stays out of things that is it's all leading in in the same direction now Xi Jinping here on screen China's president is heading to the US in late September as well so I think the idea would be to probably end that conflict before you know Xiinping heads to America because economic D-Day is heavily focused towards China. China buys like 90% of Iran's oil. So economic D-Day on Iran would have big consequences on China. And I don't think the US or China want that at this point. But even then, Iran's president says Iran should end the war now that it is in a position of strength and the world acknowledges its victory. Now moving into AI hardware stocks. They've been very clear about hardware and I think I think at this point the the story has changed, right? We've seen a lot of moments where oh my gosh, one company doesn't have the best earnings like Broadcom, right? Broadcom last earnings, it wasn't that great. You had a selloff in AI hardware stocks. We've had deepseek moments, right? Where it's a a a sentiment flip quickly that rebounds quickly. You know, we've had a lot of these these moments over the past couple of years. So, people are kind of used to that. But the story is fundamentally changing. Why? Because Enthropic came out with 65 billion in ARR, which the estimates were over 80 billion. They gave you 2028 ARR targets of $200 billion. That was like half of where some of the the bulls were at, right? So it really just makes you question how sustainable the capex trade is, how sustainable the AI trade is with disappointing ARR numbers, right? The math doesn't math. And same for OpenAI's numbers. They came out with 6.7 billion in revenue for last quarter with losses accelerating. It's just really unsustainable. And now you have Enthropic that's trying to IPO as quickly as possible at the highest valuation possible because sentiment is flipping. And it's like dude like the the gimmick is over at this point. And I think hardware stocks, some of them could do well, but the overall trade, the FOMO is not coming back. That ship has sailed. And I think you want to be very careful with the hardware stocks that you are buying. Right now we are starting a new AI trade. Robotics, automation, AI software and cyber security. This is where the real opportunity is at this moment. I think these four areas are like AI hardware stocks a year and a half ago, right? You you kind of see the opportunity ahead, but Wall Street doesn't know about it. It's not super crowded. That is where the next 10bagger lives. Let me just tell you now. Now, if you thought earning season was over with, you are mistaken. And this brings us to your big catalyst for next week. You have a ton of earnings for next week. A lot of software. Tuesday, Intuitit, SEC, uh, Zoom, Box, and others. Wednesday, you have Kohl's, Aboci, and Fitch. In the morning, in after hours Wednesday, you have Nvidia, Salesforce, Crowdstrike, Octa, Synopsis, Viva, and some others. Okay, so Nvidia is going to be huge for the AI trade for the broader markets, but a lot of software reporting this upcoming week. A lot of cyber security even then Thursday pre-market, Best Buy, Billy Buy, Dollar General and others. And then in after hours Thursday, Marll, I autodesk, Affirm, Alta, Workday, Centennial 1, Rubric, Elastic, and Gap. Dude, this is the week next week of cyber security and AI. the final dagger for AI. Nvidia is gonna either send these stocks higher near-term, send them lower, but software, it's going to be massive next week. Now, the other big catalyst next week is your Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. This is going to be Thursday and Friday of next week. So, you're going to have a pretty chill, slow Monday and Tuesday. Things get crazy Wednesday in after hours with Nvidia earnings and then Thursday and Friday with the rest of your, you know, software earnings and the Marll's and the Rubrics on Thursday. Um, and then whatever happens, Jackson Hole Thursday and Friday, Jackson Hole has this big expectation that you always get something new because of Jerome Powell in 2022. And that's just simply not a guarantee. I don't think we're going to have a Kevin Walsh that flips the script this Jackson Hole meeting. So, I think while there's a lot of hedging, there's a lot of fear from the institutional world heading into Jackson Hole, I'm not expecting much of a change. And based on where I see the market sentiment right now around Jackson Hole and look at what's happening with treasuries, for an example, I think you probably get a buy the news event following the Jackson Hole meeting. all else equal forgetting about earnings here. I think Jackson Hole in and of itself is a sell the sell the rumor buy the news situation. Now you also have big economic data next week again starting off on Wednesday. So really slow Tuesday or or slow Monday, slow Tuesday. Things get exciting starting Wednesday throughout the second half of next week. You have core PCE month over month Wednesday morning. durable goods orders month overmonth GDP growth rate uh second estimate for Q2 uh personal income and personal spending all Wednesday morning then on Thursday you have initial jobless claims the good trades balance some bond auctions and Friday you have non-farm payrolls your analyzed revision preliminary numbers the previous uh time we got this was negative 900,000 for last year and uh we'll see what it looks like for this year you know, so add that to everything else and yeah, you're shaping up to have a pretty insane next week. Now, number four is Mark Newton. He says, "Stocks will run to new highs." And that video is like 2 minutes long. I will play it at the end of this video. I want to skip over that for now. I want to go to number five. My thoughts about the market ahead. Look, again, we are in a volatility period. I think things are going to be amplified here um to the upside and to the downside. I think the markets are underpricing the risk that the Iran conflict could end. I don't know if it's going to happen, but if it did end, which I think makes the most sense from a policy, you know, politics perspective here and from an economic perspective here, just end the conflict. You're not getting anything done at this point. You're just prolonging it. You know, I have a lot of thoughts around that, but I think the markets are underpricing the probability that that could happen. So, if the Iran war does end, that's going to be a big positive catalyst for the broadening trade for everything outside of oil and gas stocks, outside of defense contractors and outside of AI hardware. Everything else is going to benefit a lot from that. But again, even if that doesn't happen, I think the markets are pretty bearish on Jackson Hole. I think even then the AI trade, a lot of people are starting to sour on that. If we do get positive developments on those fronts or things are not as bad as feared from Nvidia earnings or from Jackson Hole, you are set up for a near-term positive reaction. But again, you do tend to have downside volatility during this period of the year. And I wouldn't rule that out at this point, although I'm not super concerned about that. What we need to be positioning into is the new AI trade. robotics, automation, AI software, cyber security, and then other areas like cyclicals and non-AI financials and some of those quote unquote boring companies that Wall Street kind of forgot about over the last 3 six months as the hardware trade was ripping, right? Because you tend to get a 9 to 10 month just vertical rally after the midterms. And I think we're set up for a similar kind of move. And that's just kind of my thought process right now. I don't see a recession. I don't think the Fed's going to be hiking rates. I think the markets have quite a bit of fear out there. There's a lot of event risk hedging around the midterms. So, between now and the midterms, anything can happen. After the midterms, I become a lot more bullish on, you know, again, I'm bullish now, but I become even more bullish on the broadening trade, robotics, you know, um, automation, AI software, cyber security, cyclicals, nonAI financials, a lot of parts of the markets essentially, right before the midterms, anything can happen. And I'm still not going to be bullish on AI hardware stocks until the sentiment gets so bearish and the prices get so low that people begin to underestimate AI software, AI hardware, right? And I I don't think we're there yet. I don't even really think we're close to there yet. Now, that moves me into number six here. I sold another $50,000 worth of a stock today. This is a stock that a lot of you guys also own. The stock is ELF. Okay. Now, why did I do this? And I and I think you guys can walk away with a lesson here. Um, no matter if you own the stock or not, because I was buying ELF between the 40s, I bought a lot in the 50s and I bought a lot in the low60s, right? I bought some in the 70s, 80s, a little bit in the 90s, but most of the positioning was bought in the 50s really. I think my average cost was like $53. So back then, just literally, you know, a month or two months ago, the stock's up 90% in three months, I thought ELF was a really un like misunderstood company, very discounted. Wall Street was forgetting the opportunity ahead of ELF. Well, that was in the 40s, 50s, 60s. Now, the stock's 100 in the last three months. So, Wall Street has figured out the opportunity with ELF. I think there can still be upside. I think the stock could run in fact into the, you know, 130s to 150s in the near term, right? Like the stock can go higher from here. But we were up, you know, basically 90ome percent on this position and it was a six-figure position, right? It was a large position. Um, and back when I bought it, again, Wall Street was wrong about it. Now, Wall Street's figured it out, right? So, I just don't think there's the same level of fear behind ELF that there was in the 40s and 50s. While I do think the stock can go up, I think there are other better opportunities. Like, ELF trades with a PEG ratio of about 2.5. Some of the stocks that we're buying right now have stronger growth, better profitability metrics, larger opportunities in the near term that are trading with PEG ratios at 0.6. Right? A good example is Apploven. Apploven, a stock that I have recently started to buy, is down from the 600s in the last 3 months down into the low 300s. Stocks growing revenue at 54%. trades at 15 times PE multiple for 2027 earnings. Their total addressable market is 6xing from a 100red billion to 600 billion with the launch of their their open web portal and they have a PEG ratio of 0.6. This company has 64% net profit margins after everything after taxes everything right. Micron has 55% net profit margins. This company has the high 80 gross margins. It's it's one of the most profitable companies in the history of the world, right? And uh you know, they're at a pivot point where they're starting to target a larger market. So, Wall Street's fearful. Apploving is now a show me story. I love to buy. When you have these pivot moments, when Wall Street just doesn't understand a company anymore, I think you get big disconnects, right? Applovin should be a $600 700 stock right now based on fundamentals and business trajectory going ahead, but it's 300. I think that offers a much better nearterm opportunity for apploving. And again, there's there's other stocks that I that I'm buying that I like that have PEG ratios far lower than 2.5. 2.5 is really kind of what you would say is price for perfection. And look, our portfolio again in the trading community is up 93% and while I think we're early to a lot of opportunities, I think a lot of the stocks that we own still have a ton of fear from an institutional perspective. ELF was the one stock that's like, okay, I think the markets are starting to figure this out. I think the markets have kind of figured it out, right? And hence the stock doubled from where we bought it. So, it was time to cut that one loose and target better opportunities. And again, while I do think ELF has a multi-year runway ahead to continue to do well, I see other stocks as having better opportunities. And that's one of the hardest things that I've personally struggled with is I can figure out a good time to buy a stock. I've struggled with when to sell a stock, when to take a profit on a stock, when has the markets fully realized the opportunity. And while I don't think the markets have fully realized the opportunity with ELF, they've realized like 80% of what they were missing 3 months ago. So, the riskreward is just less compelling now. All right, now it is time to play this clip from Mark Newton and um he talks about the markets, the coming decline and the run to new highs that he sees soon. While you guys watch this, it's about 2 minutes long. I'm going to eat a I'm going to eat a tendy. Okay, that's hot. Next guest thinks the Treasury's intervention on interest rates could send stocks to new highs as soon as next week. Mark Newton is Funstrat's head of technical strategy. He's here at Post Nights. Good to have you back. >> Thanks, Scott. >> So, this was that significant that you think the S&P the cues equal weight leading into Jackson Hold like we've got a little bit of room here. >> I do think it's a game changer. I think we need to see the extent of what they're going to start to buy in terms of securities and how much and a lot of that has to do with probably the Treasury put which is now at about 475 for 10 year potentially 530 for 30. So, you know, in general, it's a hugely reflationary trade that does address liquidity concerns. We saw gold, we saw Bitcoin surge. Uh, near-term, the one-two combo of rates pushing back up along with crude is temporarily something that stocks don't like. But I think in general, the amount of breadth improvement that we've seen in recent months along with this ongoing skepticism uh is definitely uh a positive with regards to stocks. the messaging alone from Treasury is enough to get us to where you think we can go. I mean, combined obviously with the robustness of earnings, right? I mean, that's the story. The the one big problem was that the velocity of rates had really gotten out of hand on the long end. We saw breakouts on the 30-year, we saw breakouts on the 10-year, and it wasn't the level, it was the velocity of that move. I think the administration as well as the Treasury noticed. Yeah. >> So my thinking is that they're stepping now at a time when TLT puts Q it's very elevated to say look we have to do something to help liquidity. Emerging market currencies are falling. The US of course has a huge balance. You know they have a ton of overseas securities and emerging market currencies. Meanwhile the liabilities are in dollars. It would certainly help them to have the dollar go meaningfully lower at a time when growth remains still pretty decent and that could actually decrease the debt to GDP that everybody's concerned about that now become a big hot button. Forgive me for interrupting you. It was it was Rick Reer who used the word untethered to your point at at the long end. It was starting to look that way in his mind. What do you like best in the market right now? What sector? What area? >> Honestly, I like three sectors. I like healthcare, I like energy, and I like materials. I think those three are likely going to benefit and be a good source of alpha for investors over the next few months. >> Why so? >> Well, healthcare per se, it broke out of nearly a three-year downtrend. We we used to have concerns about drug pricing, about the ACA subsidies. Now that has turned. Biotech is surging. We're seeing deals happen. Not only is it biotech, but pharma, but HMOs. Uh healthcare looks still very, very good to me. Obviously, the GLP1 helps some of these other pharma stocks, but energy, my thinking is crude is going to revisit $100, which is going to make ending the war probably tricky in the near term. >> Wait a minute. Isn't that a problem then for stocks? >> It could be a problem in September, October. Yes. So I think it's going to prove short-term only, but we have one big final push up to right around 100 110 and then crude should end the year down near the lows. So I think there is going to be an eventual solution better than what we're seeing now, but we know that they're using pipelines to take oil right now through the Red Sea, through the Gulf of Oman. We don't necessarily need to have the straight as much as we did already. some traffic is starting to be circumvented, but energy right now is is very much a short-term long along with materials. Commodities surged yesterday. I think that's going to be an ongoing theme just given uh what we've seen with rear rates hopefully starting to pull back, which will be a source of gains for most metals, precious and base. >> All right, we'll leave it there. It's good to see you again, Mark. Fun strat. >> But yeah, crazy times ahead. Let me know your thoughts on all of this down below in the comments section. Again, if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, link is down below in the description of today's episode.