The Stock I'm Closest to Buying Right Now

Hey everyone and welcome back to another portfolio update for you today. So what goes up must come down over the past week. Couch investing portfolio went down by almost 6% whereas the S&P was down 1.37% which means year to date we're now only up 39% whereas the S&P is up 12.2%. And so in today's video we shall have a look at the upcoming earnings week which is a very very important one. We'll go over the usual technical analysis for certain names and then go over some news related items when it comes to Nvidia. There's of course the upcoming earnings report. So that's going to be quite important. And so if we have a look at the upcoming earnings week on Monday there is Pinio before the open but other than that not that interesting. On Tuesday we do have in it after hours zoom box but Wednesday is of course the big day. We have Nvidia, we have Salesforce, Crowd Strike, Octa, Synopsis, Viva, all of that after the market closes. Rest assured, we are going to go live with the gang. Still trying to figure out what the name of that podcast will be. But of course, we are going to focus on Nvidia. I'll show you already what the market is expecting the company to report and then we'll have a look at the other news related items. Salesforce is yes going to be important when it comes to that sentiment around software names. When it comes to sentiment around cyber security names you know cyber security they are very very expensive stocks to own. Crowdstrike being probably the best in class out there. We hope that they can produce the goods. Now the day after we have Iran, we have Marll, we have Autodesk Affirm, Sentinel One and also Rubric. So again some other cyber security names. Me personally, rubric I own. So that's the most important one. But for the whole team, I guess the AI team, Marll and I are also important. We'll have a look at what the market expects from these companies. And then on Friday, we have, I assume, more Chinese names. Chagi is one that we briefly touched on a long, long time ago. Wasn't that interesting, and so we skipped it. Now, before looking at what the market expects from Nvidia, there was a report that said that Nvidia AI servers prices are set to rise over 15%. Some Nvidia customers have been notified that AI server prices will rise more than 15% in many cases for systems shipping early next year, including Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell. According to Bloomberg, the increase will vary by chip generation and memory configuration with soaring DRAM cost from Samsung Skhinx and Micron driving much of the pressure. Apparently, the price hike generally applies to Grace Blackwell 300 and Vera Rubin 200 chip systems that are due to be delivered next year. The changes could increase the cost of a gigawatt data center by at least $5 billion based on the current price of chip systems for such facility. We'll see what Nvidia tells us a couple of days from today. Then they've also invested it's it's another type of investment slashquire. So Nvidia signs a $6 billion poolside deal for US Open AI. So they will pay $6 billion to license PID's AI technology and invest another $1 billion in the startup at a $12 billion pre- money valuation. But more than 100 poolside employees are expected to join Nvidia and work on Neotron, its openweight AI model family. The goal is to build a US-based OpenAI ecosystem capable of competing with Chinese models such as DeepSeek and Kimmy while also offering a lowerc cost customizable alternative to closed models from Entropic and Open AI. Now, what's interesting here is that Entropic and Open AI is of course two of the biggest play well would say two of the biggest players in this whole AI team. And so it is interesting that Nvidia goes in this direction because if they are super successful well what does that mean for an open AAI anthropic right are they going to need 100 billions of dollars to survive in the future if Nvidia and all the other let's say open source open way model are going to be bestin-class what's going to happen with the closed source ones like openai and entropic yes there might be successful. But if the open way and open source models are going to be cheaper and can perform almost as good as the closed one, what's the angle here? This is going to be a very interesting conversation to have. We'll probably talk about this more on Wednesday, but it's it's very interesting to to hear maybe Nvidia explain this move because if they do make open way model super successful, super affordable, well, you are going to go against some of your biggest customers, which yeah, I guess if Nvidia does it, they know what they're doing. But this is still a very interesting move. Now, as for what the market expects, first of all, Nvidia is is not an expensive name to own. Yes, it's a $5.2 trillion company. It's up close to 14% year to date, but the forward the forward estimates aren't high at all. It's 21.4 times forward PEG ratio.5 times. Price to free cash flow, let's call it 22 times. This is not an expensive name to own. And when you look at the size of this company, 5.2 $2 trillion and you look at the expected growth rate for the upcoming quarter, the expected growth rate there, the market is expecting approximately 100% year-over-year growth. 100% year-over-year growth for a company that's $5.2 trillion. The quarter after that, you can see this right here, it's 88.8% growth year-over-year, which means I assume Nvidia is going to beat it. And this is going to be the first quarter of $103 billion. So that means that we're might be getting now a quarter of over 100% year-over-year growth. Next quarter close to 90% year-over-year growth. The quarter after that, let's call it maybe closer to 80%. This is this is incredible because this is a company that's worth over $5 trillion. Yes, it's now going to generate over a hundred billion each and every quarter. Yes, the growth rates are coming down, but look at the size of this. There are small companies that cannot even grow like this. And yes, even an AMD, AMD cannot grow this quickly as of right now. Me personally, of course, I expect Nvidia to comfortably beat the expectations. Could the stock drop? I mean, the stock is not expensive. I don't think a lot of the success is baked in. There will be some questions in the call talking about okay you're generating an insane amount of free cash flow you're making some investments how risky are those investments what about the the new investments in open way models how do you compete with the rest how is that going to work out it's more questions about 2728 than about what's going to happen in the upcoming quarters and if we look at the free cash flow estimates it's a bit all over the place consensus sits at 48.7 7 billion but the high end sits at $83 billion and the low end at 34. So it's a very very big uh difference. Looking at IN of course they are still making that switch from Bitcoin mining revenue to AI cloud revenue. market is expecting $140 million in a revenue which means for this quarter it's a drop year-over-year of close to 25% but then it's expected to go up significantly of course as more and more GPU clusters go online now the thing with INE is one it's been underperforming this year compared to the other Neo cloud players and compared to the market as well it's down 1.8% 8% $15 billion of market cap. The thing with Iran is they need to show the market that they are on track to reach their ARR target. Okay, they cannot be late again. They cannot show again some some pennies here in AI cloud revenue. They really need to show that yes, big clusters are coming online. We're now expected to grow significantly. the switch is behind us and you will see us generate a billion dollar or so over the next 12 months plus. Of course, they are reporting a day after Nvidia. So, Nvidia's earnings report will definitely have an impact on Iren's stock. What's also interesting is that Iren did have a pump, right? They went all the way to I think 4647 after they announced that Horizon 1, right? the first batch was delivered to a Microsoft but they lost all of that momentum. So this report for the stock itself for the sentiment around the name it needs to be a very very good one. It's nice to always say oh the guidance is this but you need to start delivering. Moving on to Rubric then we'll jump into the technical analysis and jump into the portfolio itself. Rubric is a company worth now $20 billion stockwise close to $100 per share. has been doing excellent over the past couple of months and weeks. Actually, it's up 32.5% year-to- date, but as you know, it is a very, very expensive name. And yes, to the core, it is not profitable right now. It generates free cash flow, but it is not profitable from an earnings standpoint. What do I want to see? Growth. We want to see growth across the board. Do I think they will beat again? I do think we we can see another beat. They've been beating comfortably as you can clearly see right here. Although the beats are expected to be a bit smaller purely because they've been a publicly traded company now for a little bit longer. So the beats are expected to be a little bit smaller, but I'm still expecting them to beat their own expectations. I really think that Rubric has a lot of momentum. It is not a cheap name. Again, $20 billion in market cap, expected to generate close to $400 million in revenue for this quarter, which means they're expected to grow 40%. And look, they've been growing above 40% for a while now. The expectations are for the growth rates to come down quite quickly. I do think that if there is strength, if there is momentum, they can continue to grow close to 40% for the next couple of quarters because revenue-wise, we are still very very low here. Very very low. So for me, what I'm expecting from Rubric is yes, a beat across the board. Hopefully hopefully they also have a triple beat. So that means that guidance is going to be better than expected. so they can continue to have that aggressive growth rate to defend the high multiple that the market is giving uh this company. Of course, Rubric reports after a crowd strike. Whatever crowd strike says will have an impact on all the other cyber security names. I own Rubric. I did trim already, right? I think a week or two ago. I'm quite happy with the exposure I have right now. If we go up, great. If we go down and the results are good, then I'll probably accumulate over time more. Moving on to the usual checkup, Alphabet, SoFi, Nebus Netflix Marcado Libra etc. etc. Some of these names are now very close to their support area. We would like this to stay that way, not to break under it. If you stay that way, then we could retest again for an alphabet. It's the 360 area or so. Close out the week at 344. Moving on to Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab over the past couple of weeks, it's been all over the place, right? We've been at 100. We've then been at 6080. We're now closed out the week at $72.5, which is quite close to a support area. We need to hold above $70 to then try and go and reclaim the high70s, ideally go back to the 80s. I wouldn't mind if Rocket Lab stayed around 70 for a while to really chill out, make sure that that becomes a new floor because this as well is one that is, yes, trading at a very high premium. a name we all like and finally finally is moving in the right direction. That's of course uh Sofi. So they've reclaimed a critical area here. We would like it to start to stay around the $19 mark for a while and then of course we can go and tackle finally above 20 and above $21 to really continue that momentum. But right now it's been two weeks in a row where we closed out above $18 now closer to 19. So finally finally a little bit of momentum there with regards to Amazon here consolidation happening after the big runup after the earnings report back closer to 260. As long as we stay above 244 245 or so we should be quite good in this area right now. The usual ugly duckling is of course Meta Meta platform. We couldn't we couldn't stay close to $600 per share. went all the way back down to around 550. It's a shame we are now expected well expected to trade around these prices in order to have some stability. This either goes back a little bit lower 520 or so or maybe maybe we can go back closer to 600 and try to get some momentum. Although the only way we get some momentum is if we get some positive headlines either with their AI models or with the trial. As for new holdings, this one last week was a bit better. Right now we are more in the support area $14.6. If we do reclaim above 15, that's great. We can then go towards $16 which was a previous critical area. Now moving on to Netflix here as well. Finally, finally, we are getting a little bit more of a momentum here. We have closed closer to $80 per share. Holding above the previous close, which was close of the week was $78 or so, could then finally push us back above $80. And to try and close out the week above $83 per share. Nebus, of course, extremely volatile name. Last week was $277. I think two weeks or so ago was $190 or so. We closed out the week at $219. It is between a support area of 208 to 225. Again, this is a very volatile name. And of course, with Iran, Nvidia, Marll, all these companies reporting over the next couple of days, I'm still expecting a lot of volatility with regards to Nebus. If you're selling covered calls, the premium in my opinion is still going to be quite high because the volatility is going to be high as well. If we can stay above $200 per share, I think for a while I wouldn't mind. That could be a nice support area. One name where I thought we finally get some momentum because of the S&P inclusion was Reddit, but that didn't happen. So, they lost all of that momentum. We are still in a sort of supportish area, but in order to really get back some momentum, we would like to see this go back to $160. In the meantime, of course, all of these names that have these types of retests, if there are good companies, then you just have an opportunity to add more in case you've missed the previous bounce because of a headline. One name where we do not have that opportunity is of course Axon. Axon continues to go up and up and up. It's trading at a big premium. I thought we would see a retest of mid500s, maybe low 500s. Didn't happen anymore. Another name that's also slowly but surely getting back closer to $2,000 per share is Marcado Libé. We closed out the week at $1,922. Went really under the radar. So here as well, we do have a lot of momentum with that name. Lastly, also a good one is Uber finally getting closer to $80 per share. If we can get a week where we do close above $80, then maybe yes, maybe sentiment around that name is also going to change. As you know, when you look at technical analysis, it is a lot about sentiment and momentum. It has very little to do with oh, is the business doing well or not? All the companies that we are covered right now are good companies but sometimes one gets a positive headline the other gets a negative one and that hurts the momentum of the name. Moving on to the portfolio itself I don't think much has changed with regards to the ranking. So we still have Nebus at number one, Sofi number two, AMD number three, then we have Google, Rocket Lab, Oscar, Meta, Dlo, Micron, the cash position, Robin Hood. Robin Hood had a very good week. Robin Hood and so far had a good week with regards to a crypto sentiment changing, crypto going up, Robin Hood of course having a more exposure to crypto. So back above $100 per share. Then we have Rubric, Uber, Palanteer, New Holdings, Axon, Netflix, Reddit, and a couple of shares of Nvidia, which means I'll probably have to buy an extra share when we're going to cover uh that earnings. Now, I didn't buy anything, didn't sell anything either, but like I said on Friday, there are definitely certain companies where I wouldn't mind adding more in the back half of this year or maybe even over the next couple of days, right? A meta, I keep saying this time and time again. I still believe this is extremely undervalued and it really only takes one or two headlines for this name to start to go back up because the results of the business itself have been very good. It is purely sentiment based. Now of course the trial can change things for meta in a negative way. The probabilities if I have to look at the probabilities riskreward-wise I think it favors the reward. And so if we're still under $600, I will have to buy more of that. As for the rest, yes, I think I will focus now more on building up the position in Reddit. Although this one I'll do it slower than previously intended because I want to see some data licensing deal. I do believe that the biggest bare case here is if they cannot convince a Google and OpenAI and entropic whoever is using the Reddit data, they cannot convince them that hey you need to pay up for our data pay up big then then yes it it is part of the bar thesis because if Google AI overviews or so steals traffic or takes the traffic away from that platform it is a big issue especially if you do not get paid. So, I still want to grow that position, but I'll do it slower than before. New I will I will grow it because well, the results are great. The valuation is good. I still think this is an undervalued name with a DLO. I think we have time. I think I have time. It's been at $15 for god knows how long. So, I have time there. With regards to the rest, I'll keep some cash in case we do have further pullbacks. Right? If you do have further pullbacks for me in an axon with a Netflix as I said before it is fairly valued if not undervalued right now but there are still some question marks around that name so I'm taking my time with that with the rest here Oscar is doing very well for me so far I do think I've added enough with regards to Nebus I do have a put that I sold for December so I'm fine there Google ideally we go back closer to $300 per share maybe I'm too greedy maybe that never happens that also good. Micron, I'll leave it as is. N AMD, I'll leave it as is as well. Palanteer, ideally, we do have a pullback, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. So, okay, I guess I'll have to live with that position being only 3.6% of the portfolio, but it's already up 62.4% in what a matter of a month or so. So, yes, there are certain companies where I would like to increase those positions even at these prices. And there are some others where if we do have a pullback then yes I'll add more. This is something that I've been saying more and more. Sometimes the best opportunities are just in your portfolio. You don't have to look at others. Sometimes yes sometimes others are very interesting and maybe maybe a position in your portfolio is not that interesting anymore or the thesis has changed and then you do the old switcheroo. Right? I previously had some companies in the portfolio. At first, everything was fine and then sentiment around the name switched. We didn't have the momentum with the business. The guidance wasn't great. The result weren't great. We're like, okay, we're losing money on it. But what's the point of keeping a position just for the sake of, oh, it's red, let's wait for it to recover. No, you sell, you buy better business. Usually, that better business outperforms the other, and that's how you'll be making your lost money back. Closing out with the external positions. Nothing has changed there. The core reef January 2028 $60 calls are still the same. And with PayPal still the same as well. I'm just waiting. I'm just waiting with that one because if we do have an improved bid, then it's definitely going to be something closer to $70 because we are now higher than the previous bit from Stripe at $60 or so. We're now at 61 or close to it. So, whatever new bid comes in will have to be higher than that. If it's at 70 or higher, that's good enough for me. Thank you very much. I'll take my winnings and move on. And if not, then I sure hope that the company continues to, let's say, beat and slightly improve uh the business. So, all in all, that's about it for me in today's video. It's a very, very exciting week ahead. Make sure you're subscribed. Don't miss any of the upcoming live stream, and we shall see each other in the next one. [music] Bye-bye. [music] >> [music]