When Everyone Went Quiet, Smart Investors Got Rich. It's Happening Again.

It's one of the highest growth investments in history, but many retail investors are still passing it up. A $5,000 investment back in February 2019 turned into more than $13,000 less than 3 years later. Another $5,000 investment in the summer of 2023 turned into more than $38,000 by the fall of 25. Well, now that same scenario could be setting up again, but very few investors are actually paying attention. Our guest today is Joel Peterson with the Crypto Code. And yes, we are talking about the Bitcoin market today. We are going to dive into the historical cycles of Bitcoin and what the charts are telling us about where we are right now. We're also going to look at what investors have made in past cycles and whether that opportunity could be setting up again. But first, let's start with what Bitcoin is doing right now and why we're really not seeing too many headlines about Bitcoin. Even though the market is seeing a little bit of a bounce back, >> most people have their brains wired differently when things are going up, Bitcoin's going up, they see it on the news, they see it on Fox, see it, whatever, you know, and everyone's talking about their taxi drivers talking about it. That's when they think it's time to buy. That's the opposite. That's actually when you should be taking profits. So, if we look right now and where we're at, we're not hearing much about it. All we hear are the negative news, the negative stories. And if we look at the actual charts and the cycles, we can see we've been in this bare market for even since way uh past uh last year. Bare markets are actually started at the top, believe it or not. Bull markets are started at the bottom. And people have to really change their way of thinking. And so we are in this period now where we're coming out of this bare market and we're in an accumulation period now. >> Yeah. And I feel like when you look back at the chart specifically for Bitcoin, you can kind of see these cycles exactly like you talked about. And I think the most fascinating thing is to look back historically at what these cycles look like and the kind of gains investors in the Bitcoin market made during each of these cycles that you're talking about. So everything goes in cycles and it's not going to always be perfect, but so far Bitcoin has been on about this 4ishy year cycle. You probably hear about the four-year cycle. So if we were look at the last low, the last low was in December of 20 uh 2022 right in this time frame here. And you can see that these cycles repeat uh 4ear cycle at about 1,400 days give or take 50 20 you know 75 days in here. So between 4 years um from the last the lows here back in let's go about 2019 um basically it took us 1,476 days to get to the low here. From there to the top of 2021, there was a 1,976 gain. Um, from 2022, from the lows took 1,334 days to get there. Um, from the top of back uh 126 basically of October uh 15th um took it was about a 662% gain. And you can even go back in the past and you can even go one of the cycles here. The low took 1,168 days and that gain was 12,84%. So we have what are called diminishing returns on our cycles. Our cycles are getting smaller and smaller each time. There's no guarantee that this cycle is going to play out exactly like the last cycle, but it's been very interesting to see that it has. this may be a time to um start to accumulate in the market. However, it does look like we probably have potential to go considerably down a little bit even further this cycle. So, that's why we call it the accumulation phase rather than the bare market phase. The bare market starts at tops. Bull markets actually start in the bottoms. So, we're getting close to these accumulation times. >> Yeah. One thing that stood out to me listening to these cycles is that it's very consistent with how many days it's in that downward trend that about 1100 days or so I think you said. >> Yeah. So the full 4year cycle is that 1100 to400 days what it's been that's the whole from peak to top. So the actual bottoms from from top to accumulation phase is generally been about 422 days or so. So just a little bit over a year is when it has been time-wise. So right now if you look we are only on day about 221 and so if you were to look at like a previous cycle. Now some people say that the top was was here in April 2024. So that would have been about 631 days. Um, if you look at the actual top top top here, this was about 431 days, 422 days from top to bottom. So, and you could do that with the previous cycles as well. About a little over a year from that that that top to a bottom. So, we're about little over maybe halfway there where between now and towards the end of the year is where we could be seeing from what we see in the charts, we could even be going lower from here. Even though we're probably in this bare market rally right now where we could see Bitcoin getting up even higher up to 84, potentially even up to 94 to 96 area and then if we follow the same cycle, we could be rolling down to some lower levels down here. But no guarantees of that. This could be a short shorter cycle. It would be the first time if that was the case. >> Yeah, there's no guarantees that history will repeat itself. But when you look at this chart and you have been in Bitcoin for a long time, history does tend to repeat itself almost exactly it sounds like looking at the historical patterns of Bitcoin in particular. I know this is the thing that you teach on your program all the time on the crypto code. If you want to learn more from Joel and his team at Crypto Code, you can scan the QR code or click the link in the description and you will find more about his program and really dive into crypto and and how to actually get into this trade. And that's what I want to talk about a little bit more in this video today, Joel, is uh we have a lot of retail investors on this channel who have completely stayed away from crypto or who maybe dabbled in it a little bit during one of those highs that you talked about and maybe lost some money. And I think one of the general feelings that some people who aren't in crypto can feel is when they're uh on the uptrend, when they're in those, you know, tops that you're seeing, that's when people start to feel like they're missing out and oh, maybe I missed the boat on this crypto thing. And then when you have a downtrend that lasts almost two years, then I think investors who stayed away from crypto start to feel validated. Oh, I'm so glad I didn't get into crypto. Uh, this really isn't a thing. This is never going to come back. And then somehow it ends up coming back. And so I want to talk about that feeling a little bit. Is that what you've heard from people who are still staying out of the crypto market? >> Yeah, it's it's a tale as old as time. Once you've been in any kind of markets for a long time, you know that these cycles happen. They're always going to happen and it's human nature to want to not pay attention to it when prices are down and to like you said to feel validated. I'm so glad I didn't get into that. That thing is going down. But if you look historically if you were just to be in these markets of the long term, you just it's the best one of the best performing assets of all time. And so the thing is you have to really pay attention to these cycles because there's some people that are just what we call hodlers or holders. They'll buy Bitcoin and hold on to it for, you know, 5, 10, 15 years. Historically, that's actually worked out really well for people, but most people, they want to get in at a good price and they want to sell at a good price and then turn those profits and and then reinvest those into something else. So, it kind of depends on your plan, but you have to change your mentality and realize that we are in these accumulation phases now. So these are actually the should be the exciting times for people to look when can I get Bitcoin for cheaper. >> Yeah, I think that's the story that everybody was asking themselves back in October when it was reaching that high and it was reaching new record highs and everyone was feeling like they missed the boat and now it's hard to get again human psychology hard to get excited about something that is in a downtrend. Let's talk a little bit about what you are telling your subscribers and your the investors that you're training. Are you expecting the downtrend to last a little bit longer? I know you you already mentioned it would be a surprise and the first time ever if that bare market was over right now and this little rally that we've seen the last couple of days in Bitcoin was the full full rally starting. Um so what are you telling people to expect right now? Nobody can predict the future and so I never claim that I can predict things. But if we just look at the charts and we look at the probabilities, I do think we're still midcycle and that we are coming out of this bare market now. The bare market is over. It might not feel like it's over, but we are now in this accumulation phase. And this is the point. If you can see down here, if you're looking at my charts here, when we get into these buys and extreme buys areas, um especially in in our phases that we are now, this is the time where you're looking to accumulate when we get into these buy zones. So, down below the line, when we get into these buy zones, especially if you get to the extreme buy zones, this is the time to consider DCA or getting into cheaper Bitcoin. So, for example, we hit 59. If I move this chart over here, we have 59930. That was our low here right back in February. So, will we revisit and just chop around sideways? Will 59 be the low this cycle? It is always a possibility, but it does look like from what we're seeing, and again, it depends on a lot of economic uh what's going to happen. Stock markets going crazy right now. If it continues on and goes crazy through the fall, we could see Bitcoin rallying up before another drop down. The interesting thing would be is if we get into that October, November time frame and then the stock market decides to roll over big time at that time frame. What would Bitcoin do? Because that would be in our area of accumulation. So think about that if Bitcoin rallies up here as the stock market continues to rally up here and let's just say that stock market rolled over October November time frame and we had a major major correction. What would Bitcoin do? Well, Bitcoin would probably roll over with it and go down into these areas. And where does it fall into? Yeah, it falls into that window. Probably October, November, December time frame. Maybe potentially good times to really get some cheap Bitcoin. >> Yeah. Again, I love that that you said you can't predict the future. Nobody can. But giving us a couple possible scenarios of where this market could be going. I'm going to talk about the the big question that many investors again who've been slow to add crypto and and I we'll get to this question a little bit later, but no, it's one of the big ones that I want to ask and that's the fear of will this ever actually just crash? Is this a real thing or will there be a time when that cycle never really cycles back up? I think that's the big fear factor. We'll get to that. We'll address that a little bit later on in the interview. But first, you you mentioned some different points there that I really want to talk about for people new to the Bitcoin market. And that's what economic factors, what market factors, things happening in the economy tend to impact Bitcoin markets in particular. >> Pretty much Bitcoin uh follows the stock market. Now, it's not it's not in sync at all times, but generally when you'll have uh the stock market decline substantially, you'll see Bitcoin uh go down quite a bit. recently, you know, the stock market has been on fire and we haven't seen uh Bitcoin until just recently kind of catch a bid with that, which is a little unusual. Many times you'll see Bitcoin really starting to fly when this when the stock different stock markets are are heading up. But there's other economic factors, you know, the bond markets, you've got world events that are happening. Um, you can look at a lot of the things, but at the end of the day, it's about the money in the system as well. So if we start printing all kinds of money and putting money in the system and uh whatever it starts doing with the Fed and um all of those things do play an effect. Bitcoin was created because of the banking crisis and the debt crisis and all the uh people got sick and tired. Whoever it was that created it got sick and tired of seeing that our dollar was going down. They were just losing our our purchasing power and they wanted to to create something that couldn't be manipulated or controlled. And if you believe in Bitcoin, that's what it is. It's the largest decentralized network that cannot be controlled by any government or any any one entity and it's the decentralized and that's kind of the power behind it and if you believe in Bitcoin you believe in this decentralized network it'll continue to go up and up and up especially if more money comes floods the market in different ways throughout you know what what governments do and what what banks do they print more money and they put it into the system. It looks like it's probably just going to continue to happen again and you'll probably see Bitcoin um have a pretty considerable upside in the future. >> Well, let's talk about that money going into the Bitcoin market in particular. Are we seeing more of these institutions, these, you know, countries and nations and and other kinds of investments pouring into the Bitcoin market? Are we starting to see some of these bigger entities you're talking about accumulating Bitcoin? Yeah, there definitely are some countries um more even companies companies doing u buying Bitcoin putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet to El Salvador you got some of these other countries maybe countries are acquiring Bitcoin without even telling anybody I mean that would be the smart thing to do right there's some talk you know the you the US is uh h is preparing a Bitcoin strategic reserve I saw an announcement today that something might even be you know who knows those might be announced in the next couple weeks officially. Um I think once if the US government ever actually starts to buy Bitcoin or do something to accumulate more Bitcoin rather than just confiscated Bitcoin because that's pretty much all their Bitcoin has been just confiscated Bitcoin from hacks and scammers and that which actually considerably gets added quite often. But if they actually do something to move something and actually accumulate Bitcoin that's not confiscated Bitcoin, boy, I think you're going to see uh other countries follow in lock step and that's probably when you're going to see some prices pretty explode in Bitcoin over the next few cycles. >> Yeah, that's a potential catalyst for this kind of currency out there too. Let's talk a little bit more about Bitcoin moving with the stock market. We've also seen, you know, back in October, November time frame, we saw Bitcoin reaching all-time highs. We saw the stock market reaching all-time highs and we saw gold reaching all-time highs kind of all at the same time. What does that tell us about the market and then what has come in the last 6 to 8 months since that time frame? >> When gold goes up, that means that these central banks and and everyone have been losing confidence in the markets. So, Bitcoin was created to be the same thing. So, will Bitcoin become the new gold? Will it become is will people investors will central banks ever buy Bitcoin? I don't know. I don't know if they ever will. But I do think that Bitcoin has some time to catch up to gold to other um larger um investments that are there for to keep your value and your money and your staying power. Right now, Bitcoin has uh done a great job of of keeping your value. If you've ever looked at the statistic of what it costs in Bitcoin, if you buy a home in Bitcoin, uh how many Bitcoin would it take to buy a home? It just keeps going down and down and down as far as like the amount of Bitcoin to buy a home. If you look at the price, how many Bitcoin would it take to buy a home, you know, 10 years ago versus now the numbers are really staggering. And so that's the kind of thing if Bitcoin can continue this and have this decentralized. It can't be manipulated, it's going and the power of the network continues to grow, it's just going to go up and over time to the right. >> Yeah, it's an interesting theory and it's a confusing theory for those who have, you know, been in the the regular US currency system for forever. Sometimes thinking about a different way to look at currency and value is definitely a little bit of a learning curve and sometimes scary and sometimes easy to just write off is something that I don't want to get involved in. And so that's kind of what this video for today is talking to those investors that haven't really been that engaged or been curious about what might be happening in Bitcoin. The other thing about this is we've been talking just about Bitcoin, but there's so many other cryptocurrencies out there, these altcoins. Let's talk about those markets and if there's any of those that you are actually following too, Joel. >> Yeah, so anything that's not Bitcoin is called an altcoin. And there are a lot of altcoins out there. There are millions of them, but really there's a handful of kind of what we call top tier ones. And yes, we do follow altcoins. And to understand, think of altcoins as like uh back in the dotcom days when all these new companies were launching and think of them as little companies. But yes, we definitely are launching. I'll show you kind of something interesting. Um, this indicator that we use um, shows us when we flip green, this is the time to start considering getting into this asset. When it turns red, you should be getting out of this asset. But I'll show you something kind of interesting. We could see that we were starting to turn up here on Bitcoin. But when you do that, you start to see some of the altcoins pop. I'll show you one that went up 70%. This is called Zcash. Zcash was one of the the big gainers from this last cycle. Um, back here, Zcash from July 20 24th to the top um, did a, you know 4,652% up to just in one year, a little over a year and a half. And so that's kind of crazy, right? I mean these these altcoins here's another one called Hype Hyperlquid is a decentralized trading exchange and that flipped green has gone up and done another uh 60% not a yeah 60% already on that and if we look at some of these others some of these are starting to turn green uh Dogecoin just flipped green by the way this is not financial advice saying to get into these right now you need to do your own research and look at the charts but if Bitcoin continues up to the Okay, most likely some of these altcoins will continue. And Ethereum is the another one that everyone looks at. Most people look at Bitcoin and then Ethereum. They say Bitcoin's the gold, Ethereum is the is the silver in the market. So, it also just flipped green. So, will we continue up on our trend for a little bit? I think there's some probabilities that that we will, but these are some of the altcoins that we're watching, including Oh, so see another one here. BNB is another one that we really like. um any any of these altcoins that are tied to a real business or to a real use case or something that they will be useful for and that someone and a company or people will actually really use in the future. That's the ones we like to invest in. We're not really into many of the meme coins. We we like the volatility. We like to make money. So, yeah, we might do some of those as more like a gambling. and we've done pretty well with some of those. But for long-term uh by I I don't hodddle any any altcoins and I don't recommend anybody else as well. Altcoins are to make Tether USDT more make more stable coins and put it back into Bitcoin for the long term. >> These are not buy and hold kind of investments. These are ones that you can get in the market like you said a little bit like gambling. Get in the market and get out when they start to turn red. Like you said, I think that's great advice and and it makes it a little bit more simplified for investors who are just starting to get involved in this. I know we have had a few different viewers out there. I'm sure there's plenty of people watching who have dabbled in cryptocurrency markets a little bit. We've had some viewers who've asked about Ethereum and wondering when that market is really going to take off. Has Ethereum seen the same kind of gains that Bitcoin has or have those gains been maybe not quite as impressive for investors? >> So, Ethereum has actually done really well um historically. You can go back here. Let me kind of scroll back here and kind of show you what the gains of Ethereum originally um when it started had like crazy crazy gains. We're talking like 20,000 gain, you know, here's a here's a 5,000 you know 20 gain in that that cycle from that top to bottom. Um, but it struggled a little bit more over the last little while while although it had a pretty decent gain. If I were to look here at the last gain, it had a it had a 315% gain this last from bottom to top. Um, versus uh Bitcoin um having a you know a larger larger gain on that one. Uh if I were to see there was a 5,000% gain from here of 2020 up to um 2021. So that was a pretty incredible gain. didn't perform as well um this last cycle. However, I do think Ethereum is got some huge upside in the future. There's a lot of investors, Tom Lee, you know, all these people that think Ethereum is going to be the next thing since sliced bread. Um we just play the markets as we see them. When we flip green, we consider going in. When we flip red, we get out. Um I don't recommend anybody, like I said, hodling um any kind of altcoin. um for the long term if if there was any Ethereum would probably be it of anything that I maybe hold maybe Salana and then maybe BNB for the long run. But you've got to have a a a good stomach to do the volatility because sometimes these things will crash down 70 to 98% and if you can stomach that volatility that might be for you but for me I'm a trader more of a trader than a long-term investor. >> Yeah. And I feel like that is the key point here. We have plenty of viewers who like the buy and hold kind of companies where you're buying now and waiting for that really three to five even 10-year return versus this is a it can be a very quick trade. It can be a matter of a few weeks or days when it flips green and flips red. So you've got to be in the market looking at these charts more often. I think that's a key point. Talk a little bit more about the volatility in not just Ethereum but also the Bitcoin market, cryptocurrency in general. How comfortable do you have to be with volatility to be able to be investing in this kind of a market? >> The beauty of crypto is it is volatile and that's why people like to trade and get into it. Give you an example. I particularly like to use this chart where I can see our extreme buy zones or buy zones extreme buy zones and this is where we start accumulating. So, for example, March 2025, we were screaming into the extreme zones, which doesn't happen very often in Ethereum. And it's quick though if you look at that from there to just August, from March to August, you know, there was a 256% we started getting into our sell zone. So, you start to scale out. Um, interesting enough, you can see that we started to get to the extreme buy zones here this January and February and then we've been in these buy zones and now we flipped out of those buy zones. We've started to flip green. So, more likely will we cycle up a little bit higher? Yeah, I think we will. Will we get to the sell zones here? Very, very possible. But we might have to wait a little bit more in the cycle. But I just like to trade the cycles because the volatility is I love a volatility and when you can finally learn to take advantage of volatility can be one of your best friends. You just have to change your mindset of how you do markets and get in when everyone else is discouraged and get out whenever is euphoric and excited. >> Yeah, that's a key point when you're looking at the crypto markets for sure. Let's end on that big question that everyone has is when you're buying on the low, you are counting on that high coming eventually. What happens if that high doesn't come again? And I think that's the fear for people who haven't touched crypto yet or they're just waiting for the the floor to drop out from underneath this type of investment. Just saying, "What if that high never comes again?" What do you say to that kind of a a thought? >> Yeah, that's basically when I bought the dip, but the dip keeps dipping, you know? So the thing with that is you just need to make sure you're really in the right dip. Now you have to remember think in cycles. That's the thing you have to consider. So where is Bitcoin in the cycle right now? Is Bitcoin at the bottom of the cycle? We're probably not at the bottom yet. We're probably close to the bottom. We're probably in this accumulation zone. Don't just ever go all in at once. Use some charts. Look at the extremes buy zones, the buy zones. And this is when you start nibbling away and you start accumulating and then selling when you get to these, you know, extreme euphoria, these types of of of rips. And then you're doing the same thing out. You're you're scaling out because you don't know how far it's going to go up, but you're scaling on your way up. So basically, buy low, sell high, but then do it. And when it's actually the opposite of what your brain wants to do, and then you need to look at some charts. >> I love how calmly you explain a very chaotic chart situation, too. And so no matter your personality type, if this sounds like something that is intriguing to you or a great way again to make some profits because as we talked about those returns made over time when people do buy these cycles are quite huge. And so that is the the attraction to trading in the crypto market. Uh Joel is a great teacher. If you want to learn more from Joel, again, you can scan the QR code or click the link in the description and follow along to the crypto code classes that that Joel teaches and the alerts that he brings out about when is a good time to buy, when is a good time to sell, and those sorts of things. Joel, thank you again so much for having a little indepth dive into the crypto market and what is happening right now. I really appreciate it. And for our viewers, if you are still not certain on the crypto market, know that it follows the stock market and there are plenty of other investors out there who are betting on the stock market, maybe not holding on to the highs that it has, too. See what Warren Buffett is doing right now. It's an interesting conversation on whether he's right or whether he could be wrong this time around. Make sure to watch that video here. You can find that full interview right