Why Is Bitcoin Suddenly Exploding? Will The Rally Continue? | Ben Cowen

The whales were very active at the lows. Like you can zoom in and see that there was a lot of whale activity at the lows. But there isn't really a lot of whale activity right now. You know what is really driving this? If we're just rejected here at around like 80 81k, then there's still a chance that we go lower and and and you know, search out the realized price. Historically, the right move for Bitcoin is to accumulate it throughout the second [music] half of the midterm year and just prepare yourself ideally for a bull run. Bitcoin has been on a tear, up 25% since August 19th, the day that the Treasury announced that it would double bond buybacks from 2 to 4 billion per operation. It's not just Bitcoin, by the way. Ethereum's up almost 30% since last week. Some altcoins even doubled in the last week or so. And so, the question remains, is this move the beginning of a new bull market? How sustainable is this rally? Should we be buying or selling into this rally? These are the central questions we'll be exploring with our next guest, Benjamin Cowan, founder of Into the Cryptoverse. Right now, there's a trade on Koshi for whether or not Bitcoin will hit $50,000 before $100,000. Traders are placing a 22% chance that Bitcoin will go to 50 before 100, which is rather bullish. We're right at the midpoint right now at $79,000. So, what will it be? 501st or 100,000? Ben's going to give us the answer. This video is sponsored by Koshi. It's the largest prediction market in the United States. Unlike a sports book, you're trading peer-to-peer on real world events. From economic data to political outcomes, the price moves based on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below or scan the QR code here to get started. And use my code, Lynn, L I N. New users who use my code Lynn can get $25 if you trade $25. Cashia is CFTC approved and available in all 50 states including California and Texas. And if you're trading on the trade I mentioned earlier, which is whether or not Bitcoin will hit $50,000 before $100,000 and if you agree with the premise of that trade, a $50 trade on that question can yield a payout of $215 if you're right, which is to say Bitcoin goes to 50,000 before it hits $100,000. link down below or scan the QR code here. And on that note, Ben, welcome back to the show. A lot to go over today, so let's just get right into it. Thanks for coming back. Welcome back. Bitcoin is on a tear. It is now up 25% at least since August 19th, and it's having the best run in 3 years. It's not just Bitcoin, by the way. It's all of crypto, which we'll talk about. Well, not all of crypto, but you know what I mean. It's the entire crypto space waking up. ETH is up. Bunch of altcoins are waking up. And um the question is whether or not this is the start of um a new cycle or just a knee-jerk reaction to what the Treasury announced on the 19th which to recap for the audience last week they announced they would double bond buybacks from 2 to4 billion to support the Treasury market the long end of the curve to prevent the long end of the curve from going up. And just today, actually on the Monday, August 24th, Scott Besson said that he could use the Treasury general account, which is up to or close to $1 trillion in it. And now, I've heard the other theory that perhaps the start of the four-year cycle is going to be in October. And so, people are front running that. Uh, but it seems to be a rather big coincidence that the entire crypto market has woken up or decided to wake up on August 19th when the Treasury made that announcement. Anyway, how do you see it and why is this badly happening right now was my first question. >> Well, it's interesting because the things that they're doing to try to, you know, slow down the long end are likely only going to make the issue worse. Um, you know, what they're doing doesn't necessarily solve any of the problems for why the long wants to go higher in the first place. So arguably what they're doing would be more so a short-term solution rather than a a a long-term fix. Uh but no, you're right. I mean, Bitcoin has had a fairly impressive rally off the lows in July. And um you know, at this point, when we've seen rallies like this in the past, once you you know, think about it like this. A rally off the low would look like this, right? If you were to form a market cycle bottom, you would expect the rally off the low to be a really strong rally that would not leave people room to get in who chose sort of not to to buy any. Uh with that said, right, there are a couple of examples throughout history where we've had rallies like this that that stall out around the 50we moving average. So, I I would argue that my read on this essentially is that it is certainly an impressive rally to take note of. Uh and and not to diminish that, not to pretend like it it's nothing. If if we were to see weekly closes back above the 50we moving average historically, that would be sort of the the nail in the coffin for the for the bare thesis. So, I I suppose that's the main thing to watch now uh as to, you know, really decide whether the low is in or not. We're going to get into your technical analysis in more detail just a bit. But before we do that, there's been a lot of talk on social media of course in the last week understandably so with the um many influencers analysts basically coming back to life after hibernation. What do you not agree with? Any narrative out there that you think doesn't make a lot of sense to you >> as far as crypto goes? Yeah. As far as the reawakening of crypto, uh, Bitcoin rallying, crypto rallying, um, a lot of talk, anything out there that you've seen that, um, [snorts] you don't agree with? >> I guess I haven't followed the narratives too much. Um, >> okay. >> Yeah. I mean, this was a a fairly large s short squeeze that has also been supported by some spot demand as well. Uh the question now is basically is there is there enough spot demand to continue the buying pressure that was existing from forced buyers during the you know during the short squeeze higher. And I I think that's sort of the question that that that remains right now. I I think you know it it is natural to want to know like whether this is the bottom or not. And there's indicators that suggest that it is. There's indicators that suggest that it's not. It it really just depends on on what you want to put your faith in, right? So I I think any good analyst would be able to make the case one way or the other and perhaps we could talk about, you know, what those what some of those are. >> How would you answer the question as to whether or not this rally is sustainable. >> All right, let me share my screen here. Okay, >> so historically midterm year bare markets have been over once Bitcoin has really crossed through the 50we moving average, right? So you can see that it did it uh once we got through it in 2015 um and as well in 2019 and of course in 2023. So you can see that every prior cycle, Bitcoin did not get through the 50we moving average until uh the preh having year. But with that said, it was earlier and earlier in the preh having year, right? So few cycles ago, it didn't happen until October of 2015. The next cycle it was in April. The next cycle it was in in March. Now that's where Bitcoin is right now, right? So you can see that Bitcoin is right at that 50week moving average. Now there are a couple of examples where you have seen rallies like this that were rejected by the 50we moving average. For instance in 2018 Bitcoin blasted through the you know the bull market support band went up to the 50we got rejected and then we came right back down. And then of course the same thing happened in uh in 2015. we we sort of blasted through the bull market support band got rejected by the 50we and and then came right back down uh before then picking up and and starting the bull market. So that's what I'm looking at right now for the sustainability of this rally. weekly closes, I would say like multiple weekly closes above the 50week moving average would would really make the bare case not as strong because all prior bare markets that got through the bull market support band, the 20week moving average and or 21week EMA, every single one of them that was a fake out was rejected at the 50we, which is essentially where we are right now. I believe the 50we moving average is in like the low 80s. uh somewhere in there maybe like 80 81k. So that you know that's sort of the line in the sand I think for for sort of figuring out if there's further downside to go or if this is the first time that Bitcoin has bottomed out earlier in the midterm year rather than waiting until the fourth quarter. If you had to explain to the layman watching this why a signal, not just interest rates coming down, but a signal for capping the long end of the interest rate curve would be positive for the crypto sector. How would you explain that? >> Well, I mean, I think the argument is that they're just going to do whatever they need to do to try to to [laughter] try to, you know, to try to help markets, right? Uh but again, like those are all short-term fixes. The problem is oil has actually gone back up the last couple of months or so. And I don't think that's necessarily been reflected yet in CPI. And so what they're doing is arguably inflationary, which is by the way the same reason why other assets like gold are trading higher as well. I mean, it's all basically the same trade that is that the market or the the the you know, they they'll do whatever they need to do to try to support uh risk assets. But again, right now you're not really seeing stocks follow through on that um at the current time. But you know, arguably one of the reasons for that is that we are approaching the midterm year window where stocks often uh show weakness, right? So we've had since Bitcoin's been around, we've had three midterm years uh not including this one, 2014, 2018, and 2022. I guess 20 2010 as well, but we don't really have a lot of Bitcoin history back then. Um and and every single one of those midterm years, there was a correction in stocks at the beginning of the year and there was a correction in stocks at the end of the year. So maybe the stock market is starting to sniff out that midterm year seasonality and and perhaps that's the reason why it's not joining the party here, at least in the short term. >> Interestingly, Bitcoin dominance actually went up uh when even when a bunch of altcoins rallied double digits in percentages. Um, let's take a look at Bitcoin dominance and um whether or not the rise in dominance over the last week is a signal for whether or not altcoin season is not back. But I'll let you answer that. >> No, I mean Bitcoin dominance has been going up for years. And and this chart here just shows you Bitcoin dominance including stable coins. Um, but you can you can look at at Bitcoin dominance excluding stable coins. And when you do that, uh, let's just change this to excluding. You can see that dominance has just been in an uptrend for years and years and years and years. And so this is always basically the base case is that in order to get a full-blown alt season as a lot of people would like, it would actually likely require a parabolic Bitcoin rally first. Okay? So it would be a euphoric Bitcoin that's going, you know, far beyond all-time highs that would then, you know, precipitate the idea of an altcoin season. Um, that doesn't mean you can't have windows where altcoins do better or worse, but I would not expect this to be a massive rotation into altcoins away from Bitcoin. And if if there is any type of rotation, I think it would be temporary because, as we've seen in all prior Bitcoin bull markets, the the move by altcoins, the the real move by altcoins doesn't actually occur until more or less after Bitcoin uh has had its its parabolic rally. And while this rally by Bitcoin recently has been impressive, you know, we're still trading at at at at basically 80K. I mean, we were trading at the same valuations in May. We were at the same valuations in in January and of course last year many many times. So, while it's been an impressive rally, this does not really constitute a a euphoric rally. It just I think it woke a lot of people up because of how quickly it happened. >> Yeah. And when when we have a macro-driven narrative for why the entire m crypto landscape is going up, do you think to yourself there are certain crypto sectors that will do better than others? Because as right now, it looks to me and correct me if I'm wrong, it's it's the tide that's lifting all boats. It's not because uh you know, for example, Ethereum just I don't know went through a different protocol change, but I you you get my drift. It's not a story about about about the protocols themselves. It's a story about liquidity. >> Yeah. I mean, I think a lot of it is related to liquidity. I think that I'd like to think that the next Bitcoin cycle will be more so focused on um less about memecoins and more about other things in the market. You know, I think that would be one way the asset class could show to be maturing, >> but I mean that still remains to be seen. I've hoped that every cycle and every cycle uh that's not been the case. So, um, that would be one thing I'd be I'd be looking, you know, looking towards, but yeah, I mean, in the short term, I I think there it's no coincidence that Bitcoin had this rally shortly after Treasury Secretary Bessant made his comments. Um, I'm not yet convinced that I mean, I know what they're trying to do. They're trying to devalue the dollar, but what's interesting about the dollar is that it it it's still kind of holding on here. And one of the things, and I know this is not really what you asked me exactly, but obviously the dollar affects risk assets. Um, a lot of times if the dollar is going up, you'll see risk assets kind of fade off or vice versa. And what's interesting about this dollar move following Besson's remarks is that it it we actually saw something happen. We saw the dollar do something similar uh during Trump's first term as well. >> And and you know, I I don't like obviously these things can can diverge at some points. You could argue that Bitcoin recently has diverged from what it sometimes does in in some of the midterm years. But just taking a look at at the dollar in Trump's second term with respect to his first term, you also saw a sell-off in the dollar around this time, but it still butgrudgingly went higher. So part of me wonders if what they're doing is they're trying to like throw a lot of things out and just kind of see what sticks and it's like they're sniffing out what the market thinks about various things, right? And we, as you said, we even got some news this morning um about what they're wanting to do with the TGA. Last week, we got the news that what, you know, that that that Bess said in terms of wanting to control the long end of the yield curve. And so, I just wonder if the dollar will begrudgingly go higher still in the short term until they bring out, you know, a larger a larger thing that the market perhaps can't ignore because despite everything they said, the long end long end of the old curve hasn't really gone lower since they've said it. That's right. I just wonder if we have any data to show how Bitcoin and cryptos, but Bitcoin in particular, has performed relative to yield curve steepening or flattening. Um I don't know if we have that ready on hand. If not, we can pull it up for next time. >> I don't know if I have that chart on hand. >> Yeah, because I was looking it up on Trading View while you were talking and I I don't know if they can do a 10 year minus twoear. But the idea here is that people are comparing this to Operation Twist, which uh 10 years ago uh meant you're raising the end the short end of the curve. If the Fed hikes rates in September, the two-year is going to go up. And they're trying to limit the long end of the curve, the 10 year and the third year from going up. So the steep the yield curve should flatten. And under that scenario, I wonder how risk assets will perform. >> Um something to watch, I guess. Yeah, >> here's the 10-year minus the 2-year, right? So, I mean, it's not I mean, you can see that normally it's just been dropping, right, throughout throughout Bitcoin's uh Bitcoin's history. It looks like, you know, in general, I guess since 2021, it was dropping and then it started to go up uh during Bitcoin's bull market and then it it Bitcoin sort of topped out first and then this started to drop again. My guess is that the the Fed will raise rates later this year. Uh and I I would I would assume that the Bank of Japan is also likely going to raise rates. probably Bank of Japan's probably going to raise rates in September and they might even raise rates they might even raise rates twice uh this year because I mean yields in Japan are actually getting pretty far away from where they need to be for for at least where their where the where their policy rates at >> and I think what's have been happening over the last month is that the Treasury has been signaling more action. So yes, the Bank of Japan uh might raise rates. The Treasury intervened once at the end of J July, but that didn't hold up the yen for very long. The yen's back down. And so, um, same thing last week. Uh, the Treasury announced they would double bond buybacks when yields went down for literally one day, then it went back up. And so, what we've learned over these last couple of weeks is that the Treasury is going to have to do a lot more than what they've already done. And so if we were to speculate, dubiously, might I ask, might I add, what the next bazooka, people have been using that word a lot on my show, might be, what other tools do they have in their tool set? I mean, I think one of the one of the things that, you know, arguably like, if you were to look at at the balance sheet of the Fed, Kevin Wars has come out many times wanting to basically reduce this, right? I mean, he I think he views it more of like as a liability, but you know, >> it's actually been if you look at the total total balance sheet, it's actually been trending higher uh since December when they ended quantitative tightening. Um I I think one of the things to sort of think about and and how this whole thing may play out, again, I don't have a crystal ball. This is, as you say, dubious speculation, but if if there is a correction in the stock market before the end of the year, and and and that's what we've seen previously, like throughout the last three midterm years that Bitcoin's been around, we had a a correction in stocks at the beginning of 2018 and the end of 2018. At the beginning of 2022 and the end of 2022, and then also at the beginning of 2014 and the end of 2014. And so far we had one at the beginning of 2026 and arguably maybe we'll have one again at the end of 2026. But the point is is if if we do get a correction in the stock market near the end of 2026, I mean that might encourage them to uh start printing more, right? I mean that's obviously and again the issue with that that that might lead to more issues down the road. But it would be a short-term fix. But the issues down the road is that it it would only likely uh contribute to inflationary forces, which again is is the bull case for a lot of hard assets. And it's why you also see gold performing well uh you know, right alongside uh Bitcoin over the last over the last week or so. So I I think they but but in order to do that, they would arguably need a reason to. and with the stock market at all-time highs, you know, you can't really justify that uh as much. So, what you could have what you could have happen is that they raise rates. Um there's some type of scare in Q4 like there has been the last three midterm years and and then that justifies, you know, only that one rate hike, right? Just getting interest rates back to 4%. and then completely uh you know wiping out all all future potential hikes because the market is is sniffing out some weakness in the labor market. But I don't I don't really think the labor market as it stands right now is the main concern for the bond market. I think it's more so in inflation that is what it cares about right now. And until the Fed raises rates, they're going to have a hard time getting the long end to come down in any durable fashion. I mean, the thing the thing that would probably do the most to help the long end of the yield curve is the thing they keep not wanting to do, and that's raise rates. >> Yeah. Um, your your point about waiting for the 200 day moving average to hold is important as history has shown us that there's many examples of uh of uh short-term rallies followed by a major correction. By the way, I encourage everyone to check out Ben Cowan's channel. Just showing it on my screen here. You have a video that came out uh just a few days ago. Dubious speculation. Congrats on hitting a million subscribers. By the way, everyone should check out Benjamin Cowan. Was it called Into the Cryptoverse before you changed changed it to just Ben Cowan? Okay. Anyway, um >> No, it's all it's always just been my name. Like the my channel my channel name has always my my the handle for it changed, but the actual channel itself is always just my name. >> Anyway, do follow Benjamin Cowan. He gives our regular updates on not just Bitcoin but also talks about the Federal Reserve, talks about gold as well, talks about the dollar. Uh back to your point about the 200 day moving average. This is a trade on cashi while Bitcoin hit 20 50k before it hits 100K. I guess we're right above the midpoint, right? We're right right at 79,000. So 75,000 is mid midpoint between 50 and 100K. And sentiment has shifted wildly more bullish. Now it's only a 22% chance it's going to go down to 50 before it hits 100,000. uh at this point if you had to position yourself for basically long or short which is ultimately what this question is asking uh how would you how would we evaluate that? >> I mean I so as I've said on my channel many times like in the time to accumulate Bitcoin is just throughout the second half of the midterm year. Uh so like I'm not looking to short Bitcoin at all in the second half of the midterm years. And I never short Bitcoin, not even in the first half, even though, you know, I was arguably really bearish on Bitcoin. Um, no, I I think the historically the right move for Bitcoin is to accumulate it throughout the second half of the midterm year and just prepare yourself ideally for a bull run, get getting us out into 2027 and and 2028. So, that's that would be what I would focus on over the next few months. >> Okay. Uh Ben, right now um besides Bitcoin, you have a you have a whole dashboard of uh things that are moving. Besides Bitcoin, what else looks uh promising? Um you have a variety of technical tools that could help answer that question. I know it's a very broad question, but in we're looking into the cryptoverse now, not just the Bitcoin verse, the cryptoverse. Um a lot of things have been moving. Um anything else on your radar that's interesting? I mean, the main things I've been bullish on this year in the first half of the midterm year were things like energy, the manufacturing sector. Energy just put in new all-time highs. Uh, and and actually Bitcoin has been bleeding to energy basically the entire year. And I think the the bull case for energy is that throughout the last several business cycles, energy has remained strong well after the stock market has. And considering the stock market keeps putting in new all-time highs, it's been fairly easy to stay bullish on on the energy sector. So, I think the energy sector uh still has has room to run for a while. Um I mean, it might get caught up in a in a correction in the S&P, but I I think that would be relatively shortlived. Gold I I would still remain long-term bullish on. If you do get a little pop up in the dollar in the short term, it might lead to risk assets like Bitcoin and gold and stock market to get a pullback. But for gold, you know, I think there would be a really strong case to be made for a higher low rather than a lower low because on average throughout all past midterm years going back the last several decades, while Bitcoin often will bottom in the fourth quarter of midterm years, gold often finds a low in the summer of midterm years. In the last two midterm years, it didn't bottom until say like September, October. But if you go back far enough, there have been plenty of times where gold bottomed out a lot sooner. So, if there is a correction across the market later this year, I I think that that gold, you know, could very well print a higher low. And as far as crypto goes, it will depend on on how steep that stock market correction is. If you if you're just getting a 10% drop like you got in 2014, then there would be a higher chance that cryptos would be putting in higher lows. If you get a 20% drop like you got in 2018 and 2022, then you have to then, you know, sort of face the uncomfortable question as to whether Bitcoin could in fact put in um, you know, one more lower low in the fourth quarter before you kick off the the bull market. >> Was $60,000 the low for you? >> I mean, I think 50 So, I think it was 57K. I It's It's fairly low, right? It's still mimicking kind of like the 2019 style pullback where it was about a 50% drop. it there's still a lot of onchain indicators that have not fully reset and then so the question becomes is will they reset or or not and my argument would be if if they don't reset then the bull market might be less spectacular than it could be as if they did reset. Um I mean even the last bull market wasn't even really that great for Bitcoin. We only went up what two times the prior all-time high which you know that's more or less in line with diminishing returns. I I think the the odds of 57k being the low after this rally are significantly higher. And I I would argue that if if we get above the 50we moving average on a couple of weekly closes, then I think you're looking at least at a 50% probability uh that the low is in. But it's so hard to say, it's so hard to sort of make those declarations when you're in the middle of a rally because we've we've also seen rallies like this before in, you know, in 2019, in 2022, and in 2015 where the gains were just given back, right, back over the next two weeks, and then, you know, sort of the declarations that were made during the rally look silly a few weeks later. So, it's kind of hard to know. I mean, I I think if people just watch the 50we, if we get above that, the odds go up considerably. If if we're just rejected here at around like 80 81k, then there's still a chance that we go lower and and and you know, search out the realized price uh which is in the lower 50s and and and maybe some of the other indicators. But I mean, for now, it it's been enough to reset a lot of the sentiment, but has not been enough to reset every onchain indicator. But as we saw at the highs, not every indicator always has to flash for the market to to turn in the opposite direction. If we had data to show where the buying volume over the last week came from, would that confirm any uh long-term bullish or short-term I guess uh the basically the strength of this rally? In other words, if it was mostly institutional buying, which I suspect it may be given that it was coordinated on the August 19th, um versus let's say retail buying at the top, would that confirm to you that this is more of a sustained rally or not? Does that matter to you? >> So, I I recently added this to the website. I don't know if you can see my screen. It's called the whale activity scores. So, we're basically looking at exchange activity, whale transactions, inflow composition, and whale holder positioning. Um, and it's a lot of different metrics. And what I see with this, which is kind of weird, like I would have assumed that given the large volume uh that we've seen and just how quickly we spiked up, I would have assumed that this would have been firing off that whales were in fact getting positioned, right? But this like this indicator here is not really reflecting that. Like so if you look at if you look at the 2022 low for instance you can see that this whale activity score increased a lot around the time of the lows uh where it went all the way up from you know.1 basically to 0.9 showing that whales were in fact active at at the lows in 2022. And in 2018 the whales were very active at the lows. Like you can zoom in and see that there was a lot of whale activity at the lows, but there isn't really a lot of whale activity right now, right? I mean, like it we're we're barely off the lows. And so when I look at a chart like this, I I just can't help but wonder, you know, what is really driving this? Is it obviously a lot of it is is shorts having to cover, which has increased the buying pressure a ton. And then the the question just simply becomes can can spot demand kind of take it from here or is it going to fall fall short of what was you know really happening during the squeeze back up to the upside where there were tons and tons of liquidations not that dissimilar from what we saw back on October 10th of 2025 just in the opposite direction right you know that was that was uh longs getting liquidated rather than shorts and now it's shorts getting liquidated and so like there are times where Bitcoin gets rallies like this where whale activity stays low. Um, for instance, right, if you look at at, you know, 2023, we had a couple of major spikes where Bitcoin went up like 20 to 30%. But whale positioning didn't really change a whole lot and then the rally stalled out. So, I would be watching whale activity to see if it actually increases. And if it does, that might help support some of that, you know, some of the case for how can spot demand kind of compensate for perhaps the short squeeze and people getting liquidated no longer being a contributing factor. But if if whale activity does not increase in the short term, I I think that could, you know, that could certainly be the case for for for Bitcoin getting at least one more scare in Q4, at which point hopefully we would see whale activity pick up. >> Let's talk a little bit about you. this I I got got a qu couple questions to finish off the session that have nothing to do with Bitcoin. So, people, by the way, should once again check out Ben's channel for uh for regular updates. Uh he'll probably be talking about his analysis before we have him on again next time. So, check him out. Um you had a background in engineering. You have a PhD in engineering. And what I'm trying to get at is how an engineer's framework to trading investing could differ from somebody who started off in finance or had nothing to do with engineering. And to to to get at that obviously you you can't assess yourself based on a prior history that you've never had, which is which is finance. But to assess that I I like to just understand whether or not principles of engineering that you've learned were applied to how you analyze markets today. That's a very broad question. I'll let you handle that however you like. I mean, I think there's a lot of like risk management. Like I, you know, I talk about crypto a lot, but I would argue that out of everyone that talks about crypto on YouTube, I'm probably one of the most riskaverse out there, right? Like I'm I'm less likely to get super hyped up during rallies. Um uh and and I I think probably part of that just comes from the background of, you know, just like risk management, working hard, and just kind of keeping your head down, you know, and and not trying to um extrapolate too much. And that's why whenever I do extrapolate on any trends, I basically call it dubious speculation because half the time it doesn't even work anyways. Um I I guess like you know I I I would argue that it it's having an engineering background you know I mean I I worked really hard when I was getting my when I was you know working towards my dissertation right like I have more than 10 publications in academic journals um some people ask me like why do I you know work all these years later like why not you know how do I have the motivation and energy to keep doing it but I mean what's the alternative right just you know uh not do it at all I mean this is what I I actually quit my job at the national laboratories to to speculate on on markets. Um, as far as far as what someone in finance I I couldn't tell you because I I wouldn't know what I would be doing differently. >> I I couldn't tell you. But I I would say that going through the engineering world um and you know and and and designing things and whatnot, I I do think I try to mitigate risk a lot more than maybe the average investor in the crypto space. There's a lot of theories out there as to why markets move. Um there's just everyone's got a different opinion. We can go on and on and on and on. Um that the concept of markets moving completely at random seems to me to be completely at odds with the concept that markets move in cycles because one cannot move in cycles if it's completely random. What based on your own observation, do markets follow any laws of physics or just natural uh patterns that you can observe in nature? Does it follow the Fibonacci sequence? Does it does it does it does it follow cycles that we can observe in nature or do you think it's just completely based on human psychology which ultimately is what I could argue was completely unpredictable to begin with? >> I think both are true. So I think I think in the short term price price moves like a random walk or in physics geometric brownie in motion. Um so you cannot really hope to predict what's going to happen in the price of Bitcoin uh in a day, right? I mean it's equally likely that Bitcoin could be trading at $82,000 as it would be say $76,000 a day or two from now. like no one really knows and whatever the outcome is there's no way to really know it ahead of time as to what that's actually going to be over the long term it seems like there's this cyclical nature that we've observed not only in Bitcoin but also in the stock market you know is it possible we're seeing things that aren't really there maybe but there is still a cadence to you know to to a lot of these different cycles and how Bitcoin tops out when you know in the post having year and it bottoms out in the midterm year it it seems like there is something that you can observe there over the long scale over the long time horizon but over the short horizon I think it it's more so a random walk and and it's it's completely unpredictable and that's one of the reasons why so many people lose so much money even though they get it right like even though they might view um let's say someone entered into 2026 and they were bearish on Bitcoin but they shorted every low they might have lost money even though they were directionally correct, you know, for the last 10 months up until the recent rally, right? Or the opposite can be true, right? You could be you could be bullish on Bitcoin, but if you only ever go long after it's having a ma a massive breakout, you might end up getting uh liquidated on on pullbacks. So, I think in the short term, it's a random walk and it's really really hard to to get right. And I tip my hat to those that do, but I don't try to spend too much time thinking about that. over the long haul, I do think there is something to be said about about market cycles and business cycles. >> And then my final point is that a lot of the analysis that you've given at least today and over the years I've spent talking to you was based on historical patterns. You've talked a lot about how this may look like 2019 or another year and you've talked a lot about how midterm election cycles have uh historically impacted prices. Is there a reason for why you're looking at history as a guide? basically because it's it's worked so far, you know, and and I mean at some point I I would argue that it'll break and that the stuff won't won't matter anymore as much, but it's like why why over complicate things, you know, going into 2026. There were a lot of people that were really really bullish, right? And and the argument back then was that the four-year cycle was dead. Uh but it wasn't, right? I mean, Bitcoin ended up selling off for the next 8 or 10 months um after that top and and it ended up working out. So, I mean, I I know that extrapolating on just a few data points is is dangerous and it and it's kind of easy to make fun of. Like, it's easy to sort of say, well, you're only using a few data points, but as long as it continues to work, I I feel like that method is just as valuable as say other methods that people come up to come up with to try to predict the price, right? Like earlier in 2026, the argument was, well, the ISM is going up, therefore Bitcoin will go up. Or lagged money supply is going up, therefore Bitcoin will go up and and people put a lot of weight into that and then that ended up failing while they then criticized people that were kind of using his history, but ended up being the case that the people that use history ended up being more so on the right side of the market and the people that were lying more on the ISM and and the money supply ended up ended up not. And so, you know, I know looking at history is has its has its issues and it does not always work out, but I think it it gives a slight edge a lot of the time even though it it doesn't necessarily always work. >> Finally, you have a conference coming up. I'll just leave this on the screen. The Into the Cryptoverse conference that's coming up in uh end of November in Miami. Uh was this your first conference that you're putting together? >> Yeah, it's the first one that I've put together. Yeah, for sure. We're learning a lot. >> What's the um what's the idea behind this conference and why are you doing it? >> Yeah, so it's it's ITC investing through the cycles. Um and the idea is that we'll talk about, you know, different markets and bring in different people that can talk about different markets. Uh, and and you know, I was really wanting to to bring together people where we could have more of like a rational discussion about where different markets are and and not focus so much on just like being price cheerleaders, which is kind of what it feels like a lot of the conferences I go to are. They're just kind of like everyone's cheerleading the price and and we're all rallying around about how the bare case for Bitcoin is $20 million in 5 years. Um, I was like, what what if we can put together a conference where we can have maybe a little bit more of a realistic dialogue and and bring people together that have differing opinions, right? And and I think it's when you talk to people that have differing opinions, it can actually help uh, you know, change your own view and and and help you articulate how you think the market's going to sort of unfold. And so that's the goal is to just bring people together, have a realistic talk about where we are in the cycle and and what we're likely going to expect going into 2027 and 2028 and and hopefully it's a it's a success. >> Okay. Excellent. Thanks. I'll be going as well. So, I'm looking forward to it. Appreciate it. Ben, um besides your YouTube channel, where else can we go to follow you? >> Uh you can go to benjamanc.com. I I put out some monthly reports there that are completely free. Um so people can go read those if they want. >> All right. Appreciate it. Please do follow Benjamin Cowan. Links down below. Thanks, Ben. See you. See you next time. >> Thanks for having me. >> And thanks for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe. Follow Ben in the links down below. And please use my code lin when you sign up to Koshi. Remember, new users who use my code lin can get $25 when you trade $25 for the first time. Link down below or scan the QR code here.