Big Tech Buy Alert 🚨 Hold into 2027 🚀 Plus NVDA Pre-Earnings Analysis

Good afternoon. Today I'm going to be talking to you guys about the overall market macro, the spy, and the most important stock on watch this week. And I've got a Cristóbal Nancy Pelosi buy alert to share with you guys. The spy, we've been slowly descending. We aren't really holding structure anymore, and there's even an evening star pattern, which is bearish, on the charts right now. The big trigger for the next leg down is 762. Let me show that to you in the charts. All right, here's the 762 that has to hold. Here is the evening star pattern that we're watching out for. It's just a small one, and all that it would signal if 762 broke down is it would fill this gap right here, and we could find support at previous resistance right here at 757. Beneath that, of course, is 753, and that's where we would have our last chance to have a big bounce that could push us all the way back up to 800. One of the biggest news events that the market's trying to process right now is that the Fed owns more than half of this Treasury market. Take a look at the yellow bar on this chart. The Federal Reserve owns approximately 52.5% of all outstanding coupon Treasuries with 10 to 15 years remaining until maturity. That's roughly $540 billion out of a total market of just over $1 trillion. Now, let me be very clear. This does not mean that the Fed owns half of all the United States government debt. It means the Fed owns more than half of this specific maturity bucket, but that is still a very big deal. What happens if inflation stays high and the Fed needs to keep monetary policy tight? What happens if buyers begin demanding higher yields to hold United States debt? And what happens if the Fed ever decides not to roll over those securities or begin reducing its holdings again? Suddenly, the private market has to absorb much more supply. Bond prices could fall, long-term yields could rise, and those higher yields would spread throughout the economy. Mortgage rates would move higher. Corporate refinancing would become more expensive. The federal government's interest expense would continue climbing. Stock valuations, especially high-growth technology stocks, could come under selling pressure. This is the macro problem we have in the market that is at all-time highs. There is also a major policy conflict developing here. The Treasury needs buyers for an enormous amount of government debt, but the Fed's job is supposed to be controlling inflation and protecting the value of the dollar. Those goals do not always point in the same direction. If inflation remains elevated, the Fed may need tighter financial conditions, but tighter conditions mean higher borrowing costs for a government already carrying a massive debt load. This is the trap. This is the macro that we're in. Fight inflation aggressively and you risk crushing the markets, housing, and government finances. Support the Treasury market and you risk keeping financial conditions too loose and allowing inflation to return. Inflation versus financial stability. There's another detail that people don't understand. The Fed can't go bankrupt like a normal company or a commercial bank. It creates the reserves it uses to settle its payments, but that does not mean its losses are meaningless. Under the current policy, the Fed is rolling over its maturing Treasury holdings rather than allowing them to run off, but the concentration shown here tells us something important. The Treasury market, and therefore the entire financial system, is extremely sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy. When one institution owns more than half of the major maturity buckets, even a small change in its policy can have a very large effect on yields, liquidity, and investor confidence. And that's the real warning. The danger is not necessarily what the Fed owns today, the danger is what happens when inflation, government borrowing, and Fed policy eventually move in opposite directions. So, watch long-term Treasury yields, watch demand at Treasury auctions, watch the Fed's balance sheet, and watch whether the Fed continues rolling over its holdings. Because if the bond market begins demanding higher yields, while the government continues issuing record amounts of debt, the consequences will not stay inside the Treasury market. They'll reach mortgages, stocks, banks, corporate debt, the dollar, and ultimately the entire economy. And that's why this one yellow bar that I showed you matters. Currently, we're in an uptrending market, but that up move is fragile and extremely dependent on what the Fed does from day to day. So, just be mindful of that. Okay, we're going to talk now about the most important stock on Wall Street that's been leading the AI rally, and that stock, as a side note, has been dropping for the last seven straight days, and today was a complete flush. And if you know what I'm talking about, I'm talking about Nvidia. Now, that's how Wall Street's got it priced, but how is Nvidia been performing? The last four quarters in a row, they've beat Wall Street's expectations, and yet Nvidia has fallen the next day in all four. And it seems like Wall Street's front running it with this current 7-day losing streak, and that has only happened twice in the last 10 years. Nvidia bounced 1.8% the following session. The bounce failed, and the stock still went down 1.9% a month later. It ultimately fell another 16.6% before bottoming out on October 14th. Now, 3 months after the seventh red day, Nvidia was up approximately 23.4%. The 2019 episode was even stronger. Nvidia declined for one additional session, then recovered quickly, and was up about 23% 3 months later. So, here's what I'm looking at, and here's what I'm expecting. I believe that we're going to get a little bit of bounce tomorrow. I'm going to try to participate in the little bit of move up that might occur between now and Wednesday. I'm going to go long on the stock looking for that move, because a 7-day down streak is not typical for Nvidia. Let's take a minute now and go into the Nvidia chart. All right, I'm going to drop this dotted line so you can identify past earning events. The day of earnings was an up day as it had reversed a a move only for after earnings for the stock to continue lower. Then back here in February, we actually ran up the week before earnings, and then the day after it sold off. In this particular instance, we had sold off between the day before and the day of earnings. It even went higher 1 day later, but that was a sell the rip moment. And then in this last example, you can see that it ran up the week before and sold off the week after. So, in this particular instance that we're in right now, earnings is Wednesday. We sold off hard today. I'm expecting that tomorrow we'll see green and on Wednesday we'll see green and I will be taking profit on some options I entered today roughly with a target of 217. Now, what I've described to you and shown you is that Nvidia often climbs before earnings and sells off after earnings. Now, we are doing things a little different this time in that we are currently in a 7-day red streak. I'm expecting the next 2 days to be green and I'm going to trade that little bit of movement. Of course, I will have a stop loss at around 205 on this trade. And having said that, I want to identify another visual pattern that I see in these charts, which is a very clear rounded double bottom cup pattern here. So, I'm expecting a potential reversal that could have some follow-through that would take us all the way up to this 235 level. And that would go against the grain of the past four earnings events, which have largely increased as you've moved towards earnings and then sold off afterwards. This is a different setup. It's been selling off before earnings. Perhaps we're going to have a nice little move higher. I'm in it right now. I've entered today. I'm watching for that $217 level to get hit and I'll decide what I want to do with Nvidia from there. Now, the Nancy Pelosi pick is Intel, INTC, the true goat of Wall Street out of Washington who only competes with Donald Trump himself as a day-to-day stock trader has bought some Intel. Let me share with the details with you guys. She bought 10,000 shares of Intel and she spent half a million dollars on leaps. So, this isn't a quick swing trade for her. She thinks this one's worth holding into 2027 and I do too. Now, I don't know what she knows, but I think that Intel is in a bottoming phase right now and I've been trading this with a tight stop loss that's actually knocked me out of my position twice and I got in again today. So, I keep giving it a chance and I'm watching carefully for a reversal. Let's go look at that chart together. Okay, I told you guys that there is a neckline right around 108 and a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern that's formed on the chart. We took a targeted entry at 90. I got stopped out at 92 after it ran up to right around 9260. I got in again today on the dip and I put my stop loss here at around $86. And so, I've got a little bit of a room if this wants to continue higher. It's only beginning to get safe when it's back above 90. That's a pretty critical level for Intel. I will tell you that if I get stopped out at 86, I will take another shot at 82. This one's kind of like Palantir was for me a while ago when I was actively trading it around $132 and eventually it had an incredible breakout movement and shot all the way back up to the top of the range. I think that Intel will do that. I'm going to continue to ride Intel higher and so is Nancy Pelosi. Let me know what you're doing with Intel and Nvidia. I'm going to leave it right there. Come join the Stocks with Josh community where you can get my active alerts as well as my trading tools and my A+ scalp levels each and every morning. It's my trade system. It's how I take risk on Wall Street. Come check it out. Peace and blessings my friends. I'll see you in the next video. >> Mhm.