Treasury’s $1 Trillion Rescue: What’s Next For Stocks, Gold, Oil | Todd Horwitz

Again, this is just another sign and I go back to 2008 that it would not surprise me if if December oil when it goes to comes to contract is below is not below $70 a barrel. The interest rates are going much higher and that means that the bond futures are going much lower and the way to play that market in my opinion is to sell the futures. I think that the banks got problems. I don't think they could look past a legitimate stress test. I think that's why the Federal Reserve is trying to do something. That's why the Fed's trying to do some things and we know that eventually those things don't work. >> Treasury Secretary has announced today on Monday that the Treasury could use and access the Treasury General Account to buy back bonds. The Treasury General Account has up to $1 trillion of funds available. On the news, gold went up, Bitcoin went up, stocks are down actually because of semiconductor selling off, not because this news. And concurrently, Scott Bessent is making announcements right now live that new sanctions will be placed on Iran. Oil is down on the news. So, what should we do? How should we trade? Todd Bubba Horwitz is here to bring us the latest trading updates. What is he doing with gold? What is he doing with Bitcoin? What is he doing with bonds? And what is he doing with oil? And of course Bitcoin, as you know, is extending its biggest gains in 3 years. It's up 25% since last week alone. Bubba's here to bring us his latest updates and tell us which ones are overbought and which ones have more room to climb. Stick around. This is a very important fast-paced moving interview. This video is brought to you by Kalshi. It's the largest prediction market in the United States. Unlike a sports book, you're trading peer-to-peer on real-world events from economic data to political outcomes and the price moves based on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below or scan the QR code here to get started and use my code LIN L I N. New users who use my code can get $25 if you trade $25. Cash is CFTC approved and available in all 50 states including California and Texas. So, right now there's a trade for how high the WTI oil price can get by the end of the year. There's a 54% chance it'll get to 75 or above and a 52% chance that it'll get to 80 or above. If you put $50 down on this particular trade, $80 or above because that's what you agree with, your payout could be $89, $90 if you turn out to be right. Bubba's going to give us his opinion on oil and whether or not he's buying or shorting it right now. So, Bubba, on that note, welcome back to the show. Good to see you again. >> David, always great to be with you and yeah, we have a lot to talk about because this these interventions never work and interest rates are going higher, but I know we'll get into it. >> Big moves for gold, Bitcoin, stocks, interest rates. We'll get into that. I had a guest on right before you who told me that this is basically a financial crisis even if it's not really showing up in a lot of the data. The government doesn't just randomly announce on a Monday morning that they're going to access the Treasury General Account to buy back bonds unless something big is happening. >> Well, and that's true. You you have the Listen, again, we go back to just a few weeks ago when they tried to intervene with the yen and of course the yen has fallen one once again and and Japan wants to hike rates again. You have now the Fed really what they're really doing here by accessing the money is we're actually printing more money or making more money available because of the debt is so out of out of reach and out of sorts that you have some intervention going on here which tend to me says that the interest rates are going a lot higher than they are now. Yes, we're having a little bit of a pullback in yield right now, but I would not be surprised within the next 6 weeks if we hit over 5% in the 10-year notes because of this intervention. They're telling you and they're signaling that there is a lot of trouble that they have to get themselves out of and they're trying to do it quietly. This is the the the way that they try to do things, but as we've seen in every major intervention from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to what we did in Japan to what we've done here in the past, they never work out well when it's all said and done and you're going to see some reversals these move, but at the end of the day, this is really trying to combat inflation and it's it's going to create some more hyperinflation than anything else. >> The intervention is going to create more inflation. Is what you're saying? >> Of course, because they're they're taking your dollar and they're making it worth less. If we go back to the beginning of the Federal Reserve in 1913, a dollar was let's say worth a dollar. You know what that same dollar is worth today? 2.9 cents. So, this is all from Fed intervention from a a lousy organization that has no clue how the free markets work, that does not care how the free markets work because they wanted the banks want to control it and of course that's how they we are all allowed to get into over leveraged positions. That's how they were allowed to to to break down in 2008, but yet get bailed out by the American taxpayer. >> How do we trade this? Intervention, failed intervention, hasn't failed just yet. You think it's going to fail. Okay, either way, what do we do as investors and traders right now? Are you chasing this rally in gold and Bitcoin by the way? >> I am not chasing it as I talked to you before. Last time we talked and I said to you that I thought 60,000, 65,000 was a good level to buy Bitcoin and 4,000 was a good level to buy gold. So, I've been long those products since you and I have talked over the last couple of months and I think that they're going to continue to go higher. I wouldn't jump to chase here. If I wasn't in, I'd wait. There'll be a pullback. There there's no nothing changes in markets. And as far as the interest rate market goes, I'd like to see the interest rate market rally a little bit harder. I mean, I give you two numbers. In the 10-year notes are trading at 108.18 right now. I'd be a seller at 109. Okay, and then the and the 30 years, I'm a seller at 110, which we're we're coming close to it right now, about five or six ticks away. To me, these are great selling opportunities. This is no different than what we watched in the crude oil market when we had the first invasion in Iran and crude ran to 120. And every subsequent on the same news, crude continues to make new high and lower highs. So, and I think you're going to see the same in the interest rate market. I I'm a believer and you know that the interest rates are going much higher. And that means that the bond futures are going much lower. And the way to play that market, in my opinion, is to sell the futures indicating that you believe that high interest rates are coming cuz I do. >> Why do you think it's going to fail? The intervention is going to fail and interest rates are going to go higher. Just for the audience to recap here. >> Okay. >> is trying to prevent the long end of the interest rate from going up. Bubba's saying that's not going to work. Why not? >> Because the reason that they try to get involved, the reason that there are interventions, is because they see some problems that have not yet shown up in the general market yet. They haven't made it to the mainstream media yet. They haven't come out and told you that 18% of the people are are are 90 days past due on their credit card, 8% are are defaulting on their car loan, 7% are defaulting on their mortgages. They're not telling you all that information that creates it. So, what they're trying to do is they're trying to get ahead of it. But, it does not change the overall economy. It does not change the overall free market. And there's always consequences when you do something like you're doing now, which is printing more money in effect, because they're creating a bond to buy it themselves and what that does is it devalues the currency that you have, which will then allow inflation to continue to spike higher once again. I mean, the numbers that we get in inflation are inaccurate enough as it is because there's no way we're at 3.4%. We're probably somewhere north of 10% in overall inflation. We have not seen prices fall and especially the biggest component to all of this is the crude oil component because crude oil has not come down anywhere near the price that the futures have fallen and it's making it very hard for the average consumer to afford to live and to pay their day-to-day bills, which is why we have all these other issues and these are only going to get worse. This what with the Fed is doing here is is going to end up hurting the average consumer because it's going to make inflation spike higher and it's going to take basically money right out of their paycheck the way that they're trying to manage this whole system. >> So right now you're staying long on Bitcoin and gold. What about stocks? The stock market right now today actually took a turn into the red because semiconductor semiconductor stocks were selling off. So it wasn't moving because of the announcement, it was just because semis were selling off and that led the entire index down. But anyway, it seems to me that uh a Treasury's announcement to buy back bonds isn't strong enough to pull up stocks when there's more micro company specifics specific stories at play here. What do you do in the stock market? >> Uh well, again, remember from an investor's standpoint, I'm long and I'm hedged, so I don't worry about that. But from a trader's standpoint, I'm shorting the market. I'm [snorts] looking for opportunities to short into this market. Uh you've got a big week. Now you we're at a very tricky time of year, David. You've got the these two weeks of the slowest two weeks of the year next to the two the two weeks between the the the December expiration and and and New Year's. So, we have a very slow period. You've got Nvidia earnings coming out this week, which could be big. You've got Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And and because worst has been so quiet, you know, unlike the last few Fed directors or presidents that we've had, he's been very quiet. But, it's going to be hard for him to be quiet in in Jackson Hole because of all the media coverage, because of the big deal that's made about it. So, there's a lot that can happen and we're still dealing in very thin markets. But, as a general rule, I'm a definite seller as a trader looking for opportunities to short this market. Uh and of course, you know, we've seen some big moves. And what I'm when I used to want to short something, I'm looking for something that is extended on a rally and gone up too far. I just a couple of positions that I'm trading, just so you get the the feel. You go back and look at Microsoft, the big rally. I sold into the Microsoft rally. In the meantime, I bought into the Tesla sell-off, the Apple sell-off. Okay, because those were stocks that were overextended. I think as a trader, uh I have a lean, a bias to the downside. But, certainly, I would have no problem buying something that got oversold. For example, I bought SpaceX at 113. And, you know, obviously, it's had a nice little rally from there. And again, I don't have to be right. But, what we're trying to play it from a trader standpoint is not what my opinion is, not that I think the economy's in horrible shape, which I do. But, really, a math probability model saying that if we go too far in one direction or the other, there's a good likelihood from a trader standpoint that you'll have an opportunity to make some money on either side of the market. But, my bias is certainly to the downside. I think we're just in the beginning of that 40 to 60% sell-off that I'm looking for. And I think that we'll see some acceleration once we get out of this next 2-week cycle and after Labor Day, I think we'll see some some acceleration to the downside. >> Okay. The other thing that I'm kind of worried about is the ever marching rally upwards of the agricultural in commodities. So, look at this is the uh This is the Bloomberg uh agricultural commodity index. And as you can see uh it it it's been moving towards all-time highs for quite some time now. And and I I I know you're a trader. You've you've you've touched the eggs before. Uh I a lot of people don't trade the eggs, but everybody eats. And so, if this keeps going up, our food's going to get more expensive. How do you see this playing out? >> Well, I think food's going to get more expensive, but I think we have finally seen for our farmers and producers, you finally seen a little positive momentum in the grain markets. I mean, the grains are at ridiculously low prices in comparison to the cost of production. Uh but I think what you've seen here is the the the failing and the falling of cattle and the falling of hogs making poultry all that much better. And I mean, we've seen cattle has dropped about 20% from its highs. And I think there's still a lot of room to the downside. So, you know, the the makeup of the index, you know, pinpoints certain things, but the grain markets are still relatively cheap to where they should be and where they should can be. And of course, you also have to you know, factor in the pricing that goes along for a farmer, you know, diesel fuels are near record highs. Hydrous ammonia is near record highs. And those are all key components in there for the production. So, even though grain prices are higher, the farmers are still not making a heck of a lot of money here. They're probably just now at $5 corn, they're probably just starting to get profitable on their corn and on their planting of the the row crops. >> Okay. Of the assets that we talked about so far, what do you think has the most short-term upside potential? We talked about Bitcoin, we talked about agricultural products, gold, uh bonds, and of course the stock market. >> Well, I think I think silver's probably got the biggest. We didn't talk about that yet, but >> Okay. >> I I out of all everything you just named, I think the grain market's got a great chance, and I think gold's going to continue, but again, remember we get to these points, you had the two weeks two days last week, you had gold up $115, okay? To the one Wednesday and Friday. So, I think [snorts] that's probably due for a little bit of a pullback. It's not that I'm not not bullish, it just means that I would look for a little bit better better entry if I were going to be a buyer. Uh Bitcoin is probably the biggest wild card all of all these because we've now seen the biggest rally since 2023. And you know when these more thinly traded assets, especially like a Bitcoin, which is a wild dog to begin with, I mean, it could rally another 10,000 before pulling back. It will have a pullback at some point, but we are now in the midst of the biggest rally in three years. >> On silver, I know it tracks gold. Uh so, you are you're assuming that basically whatever rally is happening right now is going to be extended, and silver is going to outperform gold because it traditionally has outperformed gold in the bull market. Is that Is that your rationale here? >> Yes, I think that, and I also think that silver has not had the same type of movement that we've watched uh in gold recently, and of course, the sell-off in silver was so much more severe. I mean, remember, silver got halved. Got actually was down 55% from its high. Okay? We're still down right now as you and I speak, we're down about 44% from its all-time high. >> [snorts] >> To me, you would look for some some pretty significant movement, and I think you'll start to see the flow of money coming in there. We're seeing it kick off with gold, but I think the the lesser buyers and the the the poor man's gold, they'll start participating and start to step into silver here. >> By the way, as we're speaking right now, this is developing live as we speak. Secretary Secretary Bessent is making a live conference call right now on new sanctions for Iran. He's calling it economic D-Day for Iran. The Iranian currency has dropped to a record low against the dollar. President Trump insists Iran is collapsing and according to this article from CNN, there appears to be growing differences within Iran's leadership on how to handle the conflict. The president said Iran cannot continue with the war forever. Let's see how oil is reacting right now to this as we speak. Oil is >> now. >> Yeah, oil is getting hammered. Yeah, you've been short oil before at $85 a barrel. Are you still short? >> Oh yeah, I sold more. I again, I sold it live on an on an interview last week. Look, again, if you look at that chart that you're looking at, you can you you see that each subsequent news we make lower highs and and this is another thing. The sanctions are not going to work on Iran. There's only one way to settle Iran and it's either them to get rid of them or it's them to get out because they don't succumb to these pressures and if you remember the Biden sanctions on Russia, Russia never flourished more when they had the sanctions. There's There's too many things that go on and there's not enough control and [snorts] sanctions aren't Sanctions do not work. They have not worked. They're not going to work this time and certainly in a place like Iran where the religious fanatics there, the the small percentage of the population that controls the country, they could care less and they could care less about their people. So, they are not going to relent until somebody takes care of business there and that means President Trump needs to take care of business in Iran and quit with the nonsense. Economic D-Day, I I call BS. If you just take the politics out of the equation, just take a look at this chart. And I I'm I'm showing you oil going back to the start of the war, late February, early March. Uh two-month trend upwards, and then two-month trend downwards, and it looks like it's on another two-month trend upwards. How would you evaluate this chart pattern here? Just looking at the technicals. >> Very very bear very bearish chart making lower highs. If you go from the 120 tip, and every time we've had an issue in Iran, you've seen a lower high come in, and I expect to see lower lows. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if we get back into the '60s or mid-'50s before year's over. >> Does this surprise you that the Iran war hasn't pushed oil up to above 150, and in fact we're talking about shorting it right now? >> No, I thought it was a short from the day If you remember, I thought it was a short the day it came out. I thought it was a selling opportunity of a lifetime. Uh there's no there's a glut of oil. The problem we have right now is they don't have enough refineries open to refine the oil that we have. But they'll get that solved out as well. It's it's This is a a very tricky situation and a very tricky comments, okay? You know, they could [clears throat] refine more, but of course they wouldn't be able to keep the prices up. If as I re- If you recall, I told you that the oil companies would have record profits when all this was going on. Everybody was worried, and of course they all had record profits. Shell, Exxon, all of them, because they're controlling these prices and keeping them too high because they're not refining enough, so they're creating the shortage. It's very similar thing that would happen in the cattle markets, where the packers were not putting out enough, so they kept prices artificially high. The price at the pump is dramatically way too high based on the fall of the price of oil since the peak at 120. >> Yeah, prediction market, 62% chance on Kawachi that it's going to go WTI is going to go to 75 or above by year end. So, that isn't People aren't really I I think the markets are more or less aligning with you, because people aren't really that bullish on oil. Look at this, 85 or above, 38% only. If you go even higher, 90 or above, 34. So, right now, people are saying it's going to go people are predicting it's going to go flat or sideways. I mean, this sounds like to me, if I were just as an observer, as a consumer, probably good news. Nobody wants the oil prices to go up, unless you're an oil trader or oil company. Right? The average person doesn't want oil prices to go up. We also don't want interest rates to go up, and it looks like the government's trying to do everything they can to backstop that. So, I I know you've talked about the economy being bad, but I'm looking at these two pieces of news together, putting it together, things are looking pretty good. Oil prices coming down, or at least staying flat. Interest rates are going to get backstopped by the government from going up. You know, what what what's wrong with >> I I I I I I have to I have to disagree. >> Okay. >> please do. Interest rates are only down a little bit, and they're still much higher than they were, and they have no chance of coming down further, unless there's a financial calamity where the Fed actually goes back into another full-blown program as they did in 2008, which I hope never happens again. And I'm not talking about the sell-off, I'm talking about the Fed intervention. Uh oil prices at the pump, maybe at the at the barrel level that we talk about, they're coming down a little bit, but at the pump, they're not coming down. And of course, the consumer can't afford to pay for it. Again, we go back >> how much consumer debt there is, and it's way too much. And you cannot survive. And and again, this is just another sign, and I go back to 2008. We've had very similar action going into the September fascination, where Paulson said, "The banks are safe and sound." We're getting a lot of the same messages right now, and I'm saying that I disagree. I think that the banks got problems. I don't think they could pass a legitimate stress test. I think that's why the Federal Reserve is trying to do something. That's why the Fed's trying to do some things, and we know that eventually those things don't work and they end up failing. And again, you can go back and and look at when they've drained [snorts] the SPR and what's happened to oil, has it gone back up? You can go look at what happened to the yen after they intervene intervene there, and you can look right now at the bond market and watch this play out in lifetime. >> So, if you had to take a guess as to where WTI ends by the end of the year, right now we're at 89 85 We're now we're at 85. >> Well, actually you have to you have to take into consideration, okay, in oil there's one thing you have to remember they have what they call, you know, there's a curve and oil has expiration. So, right now if if I look for you, okay, oil right now in December, so we'll call that the the end of the year, okay, December oil right now is trading $81. Okay? So, the fear premium is in the front month, which is what we're watching. I would say to you that it would not surprise me if if December oil, when it goes to comes to contract, is below is not below $70 a barrel. >> What happens when the the contract price further out is lower than the spot price? What does that usually signal? >> Well, that usually means there's fear in the front right now, so there's fear in the near term because of the uncertainty in what's going on in Iran and the chance for more war, the you know, the all the things that go along with it. But if you go out and further in the curve, I mean if we go out actually right now if we go out to August of 2027, so a year from now, oil is at $72 a barrel. >> Mhm. >> That's a that's a fear premium that is built in into the near term. That is called, for those who may understand the words, that is called backwardation. >> Yeah. >> Most markets trade in contango where the prices get more expensive as you buy into the future, and the oil market, especially when there is fear in front, it's called backwardation, where the front month is the most expensive, and and the back months are cheaper. It's kind of like the yield curve, when the yield curve starts to invert. Okay, so the the prices are reverting because the only that's trading right now is the fear premium that is trading in the current month. >> Do you follow the future markets as as a guide? In other words, when when when something has backwardation, when the future's price is lower than the spot price, is that an indicator for you to sell? I mean, that must be too simple. It is, okay. >> I mean, it's not that simple. Listen, you know, we can all want to sell, but if you were short oil at 90, when it went to 120, it wasn't a very comfortable feeling, right? You know, there's a there Listen, if you're doing your diligence and you're watching and you're watching markets, that's another indicator or another trigger that will help you as a trader. It's the same thing as if you're an options trader, the volatility on options. You know, there's no such thing as a cheap options. Options are fairly priced unless they're expensive. So, when volatility is falling, that usually means more stability, and there's not a great likelihood that volatility would bounce. But when you get volatility that gets so inexpensive, it makes more sense to be long volatility versus short volatility. So, in the oil market, if you [clears throat] have a reason to sell, especially if the market's in backwardation, that's another signal to you that if you've got a pretty good of a green light. Again, there's no guarantees, but it's a more of a green light to be able to sell. >> I need to ask you about this chart. This is Bitcoin. Are you trading Bitcoin right now, by the way? >> Yeah. >> Okay. This is the biggest move all year, and it's important because >> move in 3 years. >> Biggest move in 3 years, okay. Well, I Thank you for correcting me. Biggest move certainly this year and in 3 years. This is important because Bitcoin has had so many opportunities to trade alongside gold this year and move up when the news is positive for gold. It just didn't. It just Look at this chart. I'm going to overlay this with gold and you can see how all throughout all throughout the year all throughout last year basically when gold was moving up Bitcoin was just sliding down. Anyway, the point is it's finally starting to break out and social media has woken up alongside the price. It's not just Bitcoin by the way, it's all of crypto. What are you doing with this chart? How would you react to this chart? >> That chart I'm selling. Okay, now again, [clears throat] this is there's a long-term position that I carry and that I'm going to hold and I'm hedged against, but as a trader, I'm looking to sell this market right now. Okay, we are now as as we look at the chart, we are right now on a on a on a daily basis, we are about four standard deviations from the mean, which means that there's about a 95% probability that if you shorted it here, you'd have a 95% chance to make money. Now again, it doesn't guarantee it. There's never Remember, there's never a guarantee when you're trading. >> Yeah. >> But from a trading standpoint, this is exactly what I'm talking about. This is so overbought right now and it's overbought on volume. So I would we would call this a blow-off top for now. And and if you look at the chart and you go back to its most recent high, which was in May, we are now reaching a double top in a market that's overbought in a market that has been downtrending for the last year. Which is a excellent selling opportunity. >> I I've looked at this market over the last couple of years and every time we have this happen, uh FOMO kicks in. People start piling money in when even technically it's overbought. Um is this time going to be any different, you think? >> No, that's that's what drives the markets. It's the same on the downside when the panic kicks in. The FOMO, the fear of missing out, has people chasing this, which is why professional traders are looking for opportunities to sell this chart. This chart is a sell, and I would venture to say that the next time you and I talk, if you write down the price, what is it? 78,000 right now? >> 78,000. >> Okay. I would venture to talk that the next time you and I talk, it'll be it's It may not be there when we talk the next time, but at some point between now and then it'll be four or five thousand dollars cheaper than it is right now. >> Excellent. Good stuff. Thank you so much. Where can we follow you, Bubba? >> You go to go.bubbatrading.com. That's go.bubbatrading.com. And of course, you can always email me if you have any questions, you have some need some some recommendation, not recommendations, but some questions about your own positions, email me at bub@bubbatrading.com. I'll be happy to help you out. It's my pleasure to be with David and help his people. >> It's my pleasure to have Todd on. He's a regular on the show, and uh we appreciate his trading updates. Go to the link down below to follow more of Bubba's work. Thank you so much, Todd. Good to see you again. >> David, thank you so much. Have a great day. >> And thanks for watching. Please do like and subscribe. Follow Bubba in the links down below, and don't forget to use my code LIN, L I N, when you sign up to Cashu. Remember, new users who use my code can get $25 when you trade $25. Link down below or scan the QR code here to get started.