And a couple of unique things to note about Amazon is yes its capex has increased and it is one of the only hyperscalers that is making a massive amount of money from AI.
you could justify dollar cost averaging into Walmart here.
Contexte
Walmart is not an immediate buy, but it was down 10% last week and it's down 24% from highs. When a quality stock is down by this much this fast, then my attention is definitely sparked. ... you could justify dollar cost averaging into Walmart here.
if it can break this $80 level here, then I think Uber can be off to the races once again.
Contexte
Uber definitely has a couple of markets that it hasn't even really tapped into that can increase its total addressable market. From a technical perspective, Uber did break out of a long-term downtrend ... if it can break this $80 level here, then I think Uber can be off to the races once again.
I think for a long-term investor, Intel is an excellent buy here.
Contexte
While I think for a long-term investor, Intel is an excellent buy here, I do think that a drop to that level at around 72 is not out of the question.
I do also have a position in Bloom Energy after we retested this demand level.
Contexte
In the AI portfolio, I do also have a position in Bloom Energy after we retested this demand level... if we break out of this trend line, I think that Bloom can easily make new highs.
I do think Nebus from my perspective is the one that I would rather hold shares of.
Contexte
In terms of a company, I do think Nebus from my perspective is the one that I would rather hold shares of.
Transcription Complète
The S&P 500 is finally pulling back to the 21 EMA after hitting all-time highs. This has been one of the best earning season on record. 92% of the S&P 500 companies already reported with an 87% EPS beat rate. But the last of the MAG 7 and arguably the most important company, Nvidia reports on Wednesday after market close. And we know that midterm seasonality is upon us as we exit August into September and October, two of the most volatile months in the market, especially during midterm years. So with that said, we will talk about the ongoing plan to profit from this environment from both an investing and a trading perspective as the dominant theme in the market from an investing perspective continues to be finding stocks with value. Now, this may seem obvious, but we know that the market is moving in different pockets with a certain section of the market being overvalued and another subsection of the market being undervalued. And there is still a ton of great value here. So, we will talk about seven stocks that I'm looking at right now for asymmetric value. And for those of you that are trading for short-term and mid-term plays, we will go over what the plan is as well from my perspective as I see it. But of course, we do have to get into the critical market catalyst first, as there is a ton of market moving catalysts upcoming before we even get into September. Then after that, we'll talk about the investing plan and the top seven stocks that I'm looking at right now. And then the trading plan. Let's get right into it. So, the traveling trader core portfolio is up 12% over the last month, definitely beating out the S&P 500. But here is what is upcoming that could affect our portfolios. The Treasury is definitely panicking here. As Scott Bessant said today, as of the time of this recording, that they could do up to $1 trillion in buybacks. The Treasury could tap near $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to fund bond buybacks. This was after last week's announcement of $4 billion. This is $250 times that amount. The Treasury is definitely panicking here. Now, the Treasury general account is used to pay back interest on bonds that the US government issues. I'm not sure that Scott Besson is going to do that. That just seems like tough talk. And the hope is that it lowers yields. Now, the US30 yield is down almost 1% today. You could say that it might have had a minor effect, but we'll continue to monitor that story as this is we're in historic territory here. Consumer confidence, core PCE, unemployment claims, Jackson Hole, consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations all due this week. We have consumer confidence on Tuesday. We have core PCE preliminary GDP on Wednesday, unemployment claims on Thursday, and then Kevin Worsh is going to speak on Friday. Remember, there is no FOMC for August. And because there is no FOMC in August, Jackson Hole continues to act as a de facto FOMC conference, which is why it's red folder news and typically moves the market almost as much as an FOMC would. Now, I happen to think because the last two FOMC's were seen as hawkish, there could be a chance here because this is not an FOMC for Wor to be interpreted as doubbish or at least neutral. This week, we do also have Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. Now, we'll talk about potential earnings plays for Nvidia when we get into the trading plan, but the expected move for Nvidia's plus or minus 6%. And news flash, but Nvidia does not beat the expected earnings move most of the time. So there could be an asymmetric opportunity here which we'll discuss later. And speaking of Nvidia, there is breaking news that they are raising prices by 15%. Now the reason that they are raising prices is because of they're passing the memory cost, the increase in memory cost down to the consumer. So until we see a reflection in increased earnings or increased margins, this is not immediately seen as bullish as some of the previous uh price hikes that Nvidia has done at the moment. This is just seen as Nvidia passing on costs to consumers and businesses. All right, so let's get into the investing plan as we see it currently. These are the top seven stocks that I'm currently watching. As I said, the dominant theme in the market continues to be finding pockets of value. And it's no surprise that big tech right now is cheaper than it has been in a long time as the price of the shares is coming down relative to the astronomical earnings that we are seeing from the hyperscalers aka the MAG 7. And I don't want you guys to interpret that these are the only stocks that we're looking at. Obviously, we hold more stocks in the core portfolio here. And a lot of stocks that we've discussed like Hood, which I've been mentioning since the low7s, have now since run. But these are just some in my opinion of the most important stocks with a ton of value baked in them still. So taking a look at Amazon, you can see it's trading at a 20p with a 4 PE of 24, which yes, is greater than the trailing PE. And I got a question last video, how could that be? Well, it's because Amazon completely smashed earnings. You could see here a net income on Amazon of $62 billion just in the last quarter, and it resulted in a 5.82 82 earnings per share. Now, because they beat earnings so handily, the immediate trailing PE is reflected whereas the forward PE which is based on a futures estimate of earnings, this has not yet uh been reflected in the 4 PE. Also, Amazon happens to be one of the largest positions in a bunch of institutional portfolios. It is the largest position in Peter Teal's portfolio. It is also one of the largest positions in Stanley Draen Miller's portfolio as well and he just added to his position by 10x this last quarter. And a couple of unique things to note about Amazon is yes its capex has increased and it is one of the only hyperscalers that is making a massive amount of money from AI. Its cloud backlog just hit almost half a trillion dollars. Andy Jasse said that AWS capacity is sold through 2026 and well into 2027 with commitments for 2028 already coming in. So there is no shortage in sight of demand for AWS. Next on the list, a non- tech stock. I'm looking at Walmart here. Now Walmart is not an immediate buy, but it was down 10% last week and it's down 24% from highs. When a quality stock is down by this much this fast, then my attention is definitely sparked. From a technical perspective, we are retesting a previous all-time high level, this major level here, where we also saw a ton of consolidation. And you could justify dollar cost averaging into Walmart here. However, I did a full write up on Walmart in the Traveling Trader Academy. And the reason that it dropped so heavily had to do with a couple things. One, guidance for Q3 was down. And two, they cited their consumer as being weak. So, they're taking the $2.9 billion in tariff refunds and they're reinvesting it back into the customer experience. Now, Walmart as of recent has been trading like a growth stock. So, if you take a look on Alphascope at Walmart's current PE, you could see that even with the price drop, it's currently trading at a 37P, 354 PE. Now, historically, Walmart has not traded like a growth stock. It has traded like a value stock with a PE in the 20s. And like I said, while I think that down 24% from highs is a decent dollar cost averaging level, I'm very curious to see if the market reprices Walmart back down to value levels. And I would be interested if its PE can get into the 30 range or below. At a PE of 30, Walmart would be around $78 per share. Now, I'm not saying that would get there because that would represent like a 40% drop from highs, but I'm still not quick to establish a full position here. However, Walmart definitely has my attention. Next, we'll talk about Uber here. Uber definitely has a couple of markets that it hasn't even really tapped into that can increase its total addressable market. From a technical perspective, Uber did break out of a long-term downtrend that really started in October 2025. And if it can break this $80 level here, then I think Uber can be off to the races once again. Uber has a 36% 5-year revenue ker 13% return on invested capital currently trading at a 17p and it crossed $10 billion in annual free cash flows for the first time ever all-time high free cash flow all-time high gross profit all-time high revenue with a very respectable balance sheet at a 0.5 debt to equity and it has seen an increasing amount of institutional ownership as well as the likes of Bill Aman doubling down on Uber it's trading near the cheapest it has ever been while breaking records and it has not even addressed the markets that it can enter just yet. Another company that has a major increase in institutional ownership is Meta. Now, from a technical perspective, Meta is just megaponing here in this wedge, really trading sideways since March of 2025. But like some of these stocks, Meta is also the cheapest it has ever been, trading at a 164P. You can see here return on invested capital. Even though Meta does have a reputation for wasting money, its return on invested capital is actually excellent at 17% 27% 10-year Kager all-time high revenue, all-time high gross profit, and it does have the imminent free cash flow problem that a lot of the hyperscalers do, which is basically increasing capex that is tearing into their current free cash flows, which means that the stock will trade at a discount until that problem is fixed. But it also means you get an opportunity to buy an excellent company at some of the cheapest valuations ever. Another company that has an increase in institutional ownership is Intel with its own CEO actually initiating his largest buyback at $95 a share. Intel is currently trading at $87 a share, about $8 less than the CEO buy. Now, we do have these equal lows from a technical perspective in the low8s along with this gap here, this earnings gap. There is the 200 day moving average below in the golden pocket. And while I think for a long-term investor, Intel is an excellent buy here, I do think that a drop to that level at around 72 is not out of the question. Now, Intel's value is not going to be seen immediately in terms of its fundamentals, although its forward PE is finally in the positive once again because their trailing PE was in the negative. But there are a couple of things that are helping Intel's case here. one, a surge in demand from CPUs, which is following the surge in demand that we saw in the last 3 years from GPUs, as the need for CPUs continues to become more of a use case in the AI buildout. And two, and most importantly, is Intel's role as a foundry. So, Intel just used to manufacture chips in-house and sell them to consumers as well as businesses. However, it has now it's now expanding its business as a foundry, trying to be the TSMC of the West. And so it is taking on external customers and building chips based on their chip design for those customers. And because of that initiative, Intel is seen as a very strategic government asset as well because it pertains to national security. And so the government holds a 10% equity stake in Intel, which means it also has a crucial interest in Intel seeing out the development of its fabrication plant in Arizona. I've talked about Netflix a couple times on the channel, but once it hit this previous all-time high as support, as it dropped almost 50% from all-time highs as well, this technical level was definitely of interest to me. And I did a write up in the Discord on June 26th talking about why from a fundamental and technical perspective, I like Netflix here. Now, admittedly, Netflix is not a huge position in my portfolio, but I do like it here as a point of diversification. We picked up Netflix when it was trading in the 19 PE. Currently trading at 24 and 24 PE. Return on invested capital. This is excellent here at 24%. 10-year revenue keer almost at 21%. This trades like a premium SAS company. Excellent balance sheet here with debt to equity at 04 all-time high revenue all-time high gross profit gross profit margin. And I do see a pretty easy path back to the 100 level, but I do think it needs a few more earnings to prove that it warrants a price back to the all-time highs where it trades as a growth company once again. And last on this list is Alphabet here. very similar to Amazon where it's trading at a historically low PE 17 PE ratio 224 PE once again marred by the negative free cash flows for the first time in history because of the increase in capex but still an excellent balance sheet.17 debt to equity ratio 18% 10-year keer still after all of these years 15% return on invested capital with a more than half a trillion cloud backlog driven by demand for not only its cloud services but also its TPUs. And in terms of other stocks that I'm looking at here, one thing I'm noticing is that a lot of whales are loading up on power. You've heard Elon Musk talk about how power is the number one constraint. And you could see that aside from Amazon and Peter Teal's portfolio, every other company here is an energy company. And as of Nancy Pelosy's latest disclosure, she just disclosed buying up to $12 million of Bloom Energy, which include not only shares, but also call options. And this was initiated very recently at the end of July. Now, in the AI portfolio, I do also have a position in Bloom Energy after we retested this demand level, which used to be previous all-time high as well as consolidation level here. And if we break out of this trend line, I think that Bloom can easily make new highs. It is a very high beta stock though. But other energy stocks that I've talked about is Vertive Holdings as well as CEG. Both of which look like pretty decent values here. Might make a separate video on energy. But just know that right now it appears to be a trend that we are seeing a lot of institutional buyership of energy stocks. And before we get into the trading plan, I just want to address TLT. A lot of people are asking me about TLT because TLT naturally has hit an all-time low here. If we remove adjusting for dividends, you can see that TLT is back at levels that we saw in 2002 and TLT moves inverse to bond yield. So, as the long-term bond yields increase, TLT decreases. Now, if the Treasury is expected to do an intervention here, they are basically signaling that they're not going to accept these long-term yields on bonds. So far, the bond market has told Scott Bessant to f off. But if they are, as a matter of fact, going to do $1 trillion in buybacks or, you know, a a much higher buyback amount than the 4 billion that was announced last week. If they can bring those yields down, you can finally start to see TLT move up. Now, TLT currently pays a dividend of about 5.2%, 2% which is almost the same as a 30-year treasury. But the difference is you can jump in and out of TLT like a stock. Obviously, you have to be in TLT by the X dividend date in order to get the monthly dividend. So, if you do buy TLT now, just know that you will get the guaranteed 5.2% yield, but also the price of TLT can fluctuate. So, although you will be getting 5.2% 2% on your investment. If you have a 100 shares, for instance, and the price drops by $5, you lose $500 while still gaining 5% on your money. So, you were seeing a lot of risk averse portfolios now dedicate some of their portfolios to bonds. And TLT is one way that you could do it. ESG is another way that you could do it, but esgo is short-term treasuries versus long-term treasuries like TLT. Also, ESG does not have the price fluctuation that TLT does. it is way more consistent. But the yield for esgov is 3.61% versus TLT's 5.2%. So it just depends what your riskreward is. Either no risk or limited risk and 3.6% or a little bit higher risk and 5.2%. If we do end up seeing that midterm seasonality and a lot of my positions at least in the high beta stocks or more short-term stocks are at, you know, are at levels where I want to take profit, I may then rotate into some of these bond funds. And lastly, pay attention to VIX spikes. As we said, September and October are very prone to VIX spikes. And just to remind you, your returns are exponentially higher when you buy when the VIX is high. I did a comparison here, but if you look at buying when the VIX is high, your returns are definitely greater than buying when the VIX is lower. And currently, the VIX is in this 15 range. And I went back and tracked the last 10 years of the VIX. And you could see here that between September and October, that 25 to 30 level is a very viable target, especially during a midterm year like 2018, 2022, and now we are in a midterm year as well. Now, on to the trading plan. As I said, you have to be in line with the market. When the market is easy, you go hard. When the market is hard, like it is now, you go easy and you don't take a ton of swing trades. I don't think that this market yet is very conducive to swing trades. Certainly not like the way that it was after March when the market was just with low resistance, very easily going up. Now, we need to we need to hit a regime like that again for me to be interested in taking a ton of swing trades. So, I'm still limiting swing trades here. QQQ and SPY are pulling back to levels where we could see a potential rally. Once again, we filled this gap here on QQQ down almost.5% of this previous range. If I pull up the 921 EMA, you could see here that we're sitting on the EMAs, especially on the weekly. And there's also this weekly fair value gap here. So, I do expect to see QQQ rally out of here. And then maybe if that does confirm, then I will be interested in swinging trades once again. You could see a break and retest here on SPY. We haven't even tested this previous all-time high yet. But this right here, if you look on the weekly, looks pretty healthy. We just need to confirm a breakout and a continuation in order to take more swing trades. But so far, to me, this looks like a very typical pullback. And there's nothing systemic here. Although the day-to-day can be very choppy. So, one thing I'm looking at here is Bitcoin proxies. Now, Bitcoin, as I told you guys, I think that Bitcoin is due here for an actual bull run. A lot of people are talking about this like it's a fake bounce, like we're going to go back down. But, I did some analysis on Bitcoin, and when we spend multiple months in a bare market on Bitcoin below the 200 day moving average and cross above the 200 day moving average, we never not see a bull market. And my expectation is that Bitcoin runs at least until that 90,000 range. Now, typically this does come with pullbacks. And if we do end up pulling back, one of the asymmetric bets that I'm looking at here is on Coinbase. Now, I did trade Coinbase a couple of times, but I don't currently have a position in Coinbase. However, if we do get a pullback in Bitcoin, Coinbase tends to outperform both Bitcoin and Ethereum when they when they were in their bull markets. You could see Micro Strategy here coming up against this long-term trend line that it established since July 2025 when it hit about 458. And although I personally would would rather trade Coinbase, Micro Strategy, if it does break above this trend line and Bitcoin is still in a bull market, then I could see swing trades being pretty easy on Micro Strategy for a short time period moving forward. All right, let's talk about Marll and Nvidia earnings. So, as I said, Nvidia has a plus or minus 6% earnings move. It typically misses the expected move, which means that an iron condor is a very high probability on Nvidia. You can see here that an iron condor has a 75% success rate because of the fact that Nvidia misses the earnings move. Now, if you don't mind owning cheap Nvidia, one of the things you could do here is sell puts at a price that you want to get Nvidia, which is currently trading at 210. So, if it does miss the expected move most of the time, you could sell easy premium on Nvidia. And if it does make the expected move and it and it drops by more than expected and you get assigned shares, at least you get to pick up Nvidia for cheap. So one example would be selling the 195 or 190 puts on Nvidia. The 190 puts currently hold about a.17 delta. The 195 puts currently hold about a 23 delta. And if Nvidia does not hit those levels, then you would just get the premium. If it does, then you would be assigned shares at much cheaper than where it is currently. I think that this is an asymmetric play, highreward, low risk for Nvidia in my opinion. Another thing you could do is sell an iron condor. So, you could sell the 220 225 call spread and then on the put side, sell the 1951 190 put spread for about a 230 credit. If Nvidia stays within the expected range, then you collect about 230. If it doesn't, then the max loss on this will be about 220 because it's a $5 wide iron condor. I will be sending out my video plays on the day of earnings. So, if you want access to that, make sure you click the link in the description. Now, Marll is also reporting this week. They report on August 27th and their earnings move is plus - 10%. However, Marll beats the expected move 50% of the time, which means it's a 50/50, and I'm not interested in playing Marll here. Although, I am bullish on Marll for the long term as a stock, and it is part of my core holdings, and we are up a good amount on these shares. And lastly, I want to talk about data centers and SPX. So, Iron reports earnings this week. It's the last of the big data centers to report and it typically does miss the expected move, but you could see that Coreweave and Nebius, which both already reported, have mostly filled their earnings gaps as you can see here. And although these stocks are high beta, I am interested in potentially going long on data centers after iron reports earnings. The best case is that iron doesn't move on earnings and then that sets up a continuation long on the data centers. In terms of risk-to-reward, I think iron does have the highest risk-to-reward of the data centers currently. But in terms of a company, I do think Nebus from my perspective is the one that I would rather hold shares of. And lastly, I'm monitoring SpaceX here as it's hovering around the $135 range, which is significant because that was the initial price of the IPO. One thing that caught my attention that was definitely surprising to me is how much SpaceX institutions hold and this was revealed in the 13Fs that were published in the last couple of weeks. But even Nvidia, its second largest holding is SpaceX. First largest holding is Intel. Now admittedly, I don't own any SpaceX. You could have made an argument that there was an opportunity around 104, but I think there is a very high chance that SpaceX and Tesla merge to become a super conglomerate with potentially SpaceX acquiring Tesla since it is more valuable currently and then that company turning into an AI powerhouse as opposed to just a car company or just a space company. But from a trading perspective, I will be interested if S&P hits this 127 range. Still not entirely sure on a trade here. I will have to see how it gets to that range and where the market is at that point. But this is definitely on watch for me here. If you want to trade live with us every single day at market open, you want access to our plays where we do option selling, access to the swing trades, as well as all of my long-term market analysis, buys the AI portfolio and the core portfolio, make sure that you sign up to the traveling trader academy down below. There is a reason that we have 25,000 members in the Discord currently. Let me know down below what stocks you are looking at. If there are stocks that you want to put on my radar or have questions about. Hopefully, you found this video helpful. Subscribe to the channel. Hit that notification bell. Stay safe out there, traders. Peace.
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