Recommandations
L'entrée est le cours de clôture de l'actif à la date de publication. Le cours actuel est la dernière clôture enregistrée.
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Entrée $310,54 25 août 2026Actuel $310,54 25 août 2026Résultat +$0,00
So that's why I have bought some app in my portfolio.
Contexte The fifth and final stock that I want to talk about in this video... So that's why I have bought some app in my portfolio.
Transcription Complète
I don't know about you, but I found this earning season to be quite dramatic and there was a lot that transpired. So, in today's video, I want to do an earnings recap and cover a lot of the stocks that I didn't get the chance to already cover here on my channel. This is going to be kind of a rapid fire style video where I try to cover as many stocks as I possibly can. Now, if you have been watching my channel for some time, then you're probably going to recognize a lot of these tickers because many of them I have discussed previously and this is kind of going to be an update on some of the stocks that I watch and think look interesting. However, there is a brand new stock that we are going to talk about near the end of this video and I actually ended up purchasing a small position and I'm going to explain why I bought it and the TLDDR is that I think its numbers and its price are just too compelling for me to pass up. So I did buy a small kind of more speculative position in this one. So that is what we are going to be talking about in today's video. And with that being said, let's just hop right into it. And the first stock that I want to discuss is Limbach with the ticker symbol LMB. Now this is a stock that I have discussed on my channel previously. And I actually took on a position in this one and shared my investment thesis with my YouTube channel. And unfortunately after the Q2 report, my investment thesis on this one broke. So, I did fully exit my position and I left with about a 20% loss. However, I was selling options against my position. So, my net loss, I believe, was around $5,000 if I'm remembering correctly, which is basically a scratch for my portfolio size. I also did keep this one very small in my portfolio because I did consider it a little bit more speculative for the time being. So the TLDDR from my investment thesis was that Limbach saw a very bad first quarter report. That is what initially caused the stock to fall from about 114 bucks all the way down to 70. And that is when I started to become interested in the stock and I took on a position. Now the reason I took on the small position is because in the Q1 report management said that the business was going through a little bit of an air pocket of demand where it was a oneoff week quarter. However, things were already improving and by the second quarter, revenue and profits should be growing and picking up again. They also had a very strong outlook for the full year of 2026. So, basically, they were saying, "Yeah, some of our customers in 2025 slowed down their healthcare spending and then we have about a 6 months lag between when we actually get that revenue." So, there was an air pocket. It has been realized and now going forward, our business is actually healthy and should be fine. And while the business was supposed to be seeing this one-off weak quarter of an air pocket in demand, I thought that it was an interesting stock to again take on a small position in. Now, the other part of the investment thesis was that Limbach is basically a construction and maintenance contracting business. They construct and help maintain buildings and a bunch of different industries across the United States. And they started getting into the data center industry. So I viewed their data center business as an accelerant on top of an already healthy and growing company. So just to quickly summarize my investment thesis in Lumbok once again Q1 was supposed to be a weak quarter where they had an air pocket of demand but things should rebound in the second quarter and then the data center revenue should be an accelerant on top of their already healthy business. That's really what it came down to. So now let's take a look at how their second quarter actually played out. So this screenshot shows us the highlights from the quarter and right at the top we can see that Limbach did increase their revenue guidance to 760 to 790 million. However, they revised their adjusted IBATA guidance down to 78 to 84 million. So Limbach is seeing more topline growth but its profits and margins are continuing to decline. Further down we can see that revenue increased by 22%. ODR revenue which is their higher margin revenue increased by 18%. Bookings also grew to 182 million with a booktoill ratio of 1.1x, which is good to see. However, Ibeta is down year-over-year even though the revenue grew 22%. And that shows you how much the margins of this business are actually declining. This is the same story for gross profits. Gross profits were down 2.5 million even on 22% more revenue. However, the business did have a strong quarter for operating cash flow and it produced $18.7 million of operating cash flow. So, the story of this quarter is that the top line is continuing to grow very strong, but margins and profits are way down on a year-over-year basis, and this is why the stock fell even more. Continuing on through the earnings report, once again, we can see that the revenue increased by 21.9%. And here they wrote that of the total increase in revenue, acquisition related revenue represented 21.7% of the growth. So almost all of Limbach's revenue growth for the second quarter was acquired growth, which is an initial suggestion that the second quarter was actually still weak for their core business. And it suggests that Q1 was not necessarily a oneoff quarter because in the second quarter, if they didn't acquire any businesses, then their revenue growth would be basically flat. Moving down, we can see that gross profits declined by 6.4% 4% and the total gross margin came in at 21.5% versus 28% last year. Now, some of this was expected because they did acquire a larger company last year that does have lower margins. And the margins of that acquired business should expand over time. So, I was expecting the margins to be down on a year-over-year basis, but not by this much. Moving on to the next screenshot. This one is their updated guidance for 2026. And here we can see that they're now expecting revenue of 760 to 790 million which is an increase of 30 million across the board. However, IBEDA is expected to come in around 80 million versus about 92 million previously. So they are expecting their profits to come in much lower even on higher revenue. And what's interesting about this is they increased their total organic revenue growth guidance to 9 to 14% versus 4 to 8%. However, the ODR organic revenue growth, which again is the higher margin revenue, is expected to only grow 6 to 10% versus 9 to 12%. And this is also why the margins of the business are declining and the profits of the business are also expected to be lower is because their higher margin revenue, which is really the key part of the business, is growing slower than expected. Then we can see they lowered their gross margin projections by 3 percentage points for the full year. However, they are still expecting free cash flow of 75% of IBITA, which works out to about $60 million of free cash flow for this year. So, the business is still profitable and growing the top line, but they are having a very real margin compression that is causing their profits to actually start declining. Now, moving on to some of the screenshots from the conference call. I'm not going to read all of this, but the TLDDR is that the CEO is now calling 2026 a full reset year. instead of just a one-off quarter of weakness. This again suggests that the investment thesis that Q1 was a one-off quarter is broken because again he is saying that 2026 now is going to be a full reset year. So the business is expected to see a pretty weak full year. Moving on to the next screenshot and by the way if you want to pause and read the underlying segments then please feel free to but in the transcript the CEO also said that the margin expansion is now a 2027 story. So, this confirms that Q1 was not a one-off weaker quarter, but that they are now expecting 2026 to all around be a weaker year. And this is not what I signed up for. I signed up for a healthy business that saw a one-off weaker quarter. And I did not sign up for a full-on turnaround story for 2026. Then, the final screenshot that I want to share here shows us that the CEO spent a lot of time on their conference call explaining how data centers are now the primary focus of the company. Now last quarter it was framed as the core business was healthy and data centers were additive and a new growth driver on top again of a healthy business. This quarter the framing changed dramatically and it's now that data centers are the focus of the company and a necessary expansion for their success. In my opinion this is because the core business is actually weakening more than they were expecting and management is using data centers as a way to escape. That's kind of how I'm viewing it. This isn't what I signed up for and this is not the investment thesis that I had. So now let's head over to Limbach very quickly here on Stock Unlock and we can see that the market cap of the business is now at $56 million. Now they are expecting about $60 million of actual free cash flow for this year which means that the business is trading for about $8.4 times this year's free cash flow now. So, I do see a side of the story where Limbach stock is actually extremely cheap now. If they can actually turn around the business and get the profits of the business growing again, but that wasn't my initial investment thesis. And when my initial investment thesis breaks, I get out of my position. And let's take a quick look at its financials to show you more about what I mean here. So, here we can see that Limbach's revenue is actually at an all-time high of $683.8 million in the trailing 12 months now. And again, the top line of the business is actually growing quite well. However, the gross profits have now been declining for the past two quarters and are down from their $169 million peak. If we also take a look at the company's IBITA, which is their preferred metric, we can see that IBITA has now been declining for two quarters straight and is down by $10 million from its peak as well. Then lastly, let's go and take a look at the company's free cash flow and they have actually produced about $50.6 million of free cash flow in the trailing 12 months. So the business is still growing the top line and its underlying free cash flow is still strong and it's producing profits. But again, I do not like to see that it's IBIDA and margins are declining across the board and that this is now more of a 2027 story and not just a one-off weaker quarter. So I do see the side where this stock is looking extremely cheap and it could be a great turnaround play now, but that's not what I signed up for and it's not what I really wanted in my portfolio. So, I did end up getting out of my position right after the second quarter results. And this is just how things go sometimes. Investment thesis don't always work out. But what I did right here is I understood that this one did involve some higher risk and some executional risk on the management as well since it really was just having faith that Q1 was a one-off and that the business would actually start rebounding in the second quarter. And that is really what I was waiting to see before I continued scaling up my position. So, for the time being, I left it very small until I saw more of that execution actually taking place. And since it didn't happen, the pain in my portfolio really wasn't all that much. And again, I'm pretty much calling this one a scratch. And I'm just going to move on. For me, it's as simple as when the thesis breaks, I get out and I don't look back. No one's going to hit 100%. And I don't really regret taking this position on. I don't think I could have done anything differently or anything better. It just happens sometimes and that's that's the game of investing in the stock market. So now let's move on to the next stock that I want to talk about which is Skyward. Skyward is a stock that I've also talked about on my channel here a few times and I actually bought a small position in the low 40s but I ended up selling it because I couldn't build the conviction in this business since it is in the insurance industry and the insurance industry tends to be out of my circle of competence. It's just a really hard industry for me to understand. That said, the stock has done very well, especially after reporting its earnings. And from trough to peak, it did see about a 53% gain there. And it is still up about 35% from the lows that it set in before earnings. And I continue to believe that this is still a very well-managed interesting insurance business. So, I want to run you through some of the highlights from the earnings report. So, this screenshot shows us the summary of the earnings. And here we can see that premiums were up 17.5%. Gross written premiums increased by 13.3%. The combined ratio is still very low at 89.5%. They have begun buying back shares. Book value is up 14.6% and earnings per share increased by 46% to $130. These numbers on their own are very impressive, but they're even more impressive because the insurance industry as a whole is going through a softer market. I don't know if you guys know this, but the insurance industry is quite cyclical by nature, and a lot of Skyward's competitors are seeing flat to slight declines in their growth. So, Skyward is one of the only businesses that I have seen in the entire insurance industry that is still growing and not just growing, but also growing by well into the double digits. And I believe that this suggests that the business is actually still very well-managed and they have a little bit of a competitive advantage. This next screenshot shows us some of the longerterm growth of their KPIs. And we can see that their written premiums are growing very strong. Again, earnings per share hit an all-time high of $1.30 and it is consistently growing on a quarterly basis. On an annualized basis, Skyward is also doing $5.20 in earnings per share now. And as we saw, book value grew 14.6% 6% to $28.55 now. So across the board, Skyward is still posting strong results and seeing very good growth. This next screenshot from their quarterly investor presentation shows us their insurance portfolio and it is very diverse. They operate in 11 different industries and divisions with the largest being only 12% of the portfolio. And this does give Skyward a competitive advantage because if one area of their portfolio is seeing weakness, then they can slow that down or even shrink that portfolio and go over to the different segments of their portfolio that are seeing growth. And this is how they continue to grow through different market cycles. And this next screenshot shows exactly what I am talking about. So their gross premiums written and their accident and health segment is up 58%. However, their captive segment saw a 16.6% 6% decline. And if you just pause the video and take a look at all of their different industries here, you can see the ones that they are accelerating and the ones that they are pulling back on. So again, if a certain line of insurance is seeing weakness, then they can slow it down and accelerate the ones that are seeing strength and that lets them grow through market cycles. So now, let's head back over to Stock Unlock, and I want to show you a couple of their KPIs here really quickly. And the first one is simply their long-term revenue growth. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, they have compounded their revenue by about 29.4% annually. And you can clearly see that their revenue growth rates are actually accelerating and this is a clear outlier in the insurance industry right now. This is the same story with Skyward's earnings. However, their earnings have been a little bit more volatile historically. But over the longer term, they have compounded by 42.4% 4% and in the most recent quarter, their earnings were still up 46% on a year-over-year basis, doing $188 million in earnings now and hitting an all-time high. Let's now quickly take a look at their PE and they're currently sitting at a price to earnings ratio of about 13.6. They're clearly not as cheap as they were when I initially started covering the stock when they were around 10 times earnings, but if you take a look relative to their history, the stock is still on the lower end of its range. If we also take a look at their forward price to earnings ratio, we can see that it is sitting at about 11 now, which is still well below the company's historical averages and median. However, again, it's not as low as it was back in June when it was selling for only eight times forward earnings. So, when it comes to Skyward, I think that it's huge valuation disconnect that it was seeing earlier on this year has largely corrected itself. However, I still think that this business is selling for a very fair price today, especially if it can continue to grow by double digits over the longer term, especially as we leave that cyclical down cycle in the insurance market. This business has done an incredible job growing. Its management seems very conservative and it seems like a very well-run insurance company. So, this is one that I would definitely add to your watch list, but again, it's not one that I'm going to be adding to my portfolio because I've tried and tried. I actually bought a small position and then I ended up selling it because it's just out of my circle of competence and I couldn't gain that deep level of conviction that I want in my portfolio. But I still think that it is a very interesting business and that's why I want to continue covering it and putting it on your radar. All right, let's now move on to the next stock that I want to talk about which is New Bank. New Bank had a fantastic earnings report and the stock was up over 10% the next day after earnings. However, it has pretty much given all of its gains back, which I think is kind of surprising because this was truly an incredible report from the business. Now, very quickly, for those of you who may not know, New Bank is a fintech business down in Latin America. Most of their business is currently in Brazil, and they're also expanding into Mexico and Colombia. They do have a small expansion underway in the United States. But personally, I would not view the thesis on this business as it's successfully expanding into the United States, but instead the thesis is that it is digitizing the Latin America economy, specifically again Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. It also competes directly with Marcato Libre's fintech platform, and Marcato Libre is the stock that I have in my portfolio. Both of these businesses are expanding rapidly. So, let's take a quick look at the highlights from New Bank's earnings. Now, this screenshot here shows us the highlights on an FX neutral basis. And we can see that customers are up 13%, purchase volume is up 16%, average revenue per user is up 22%, the overall portfolio is up 37%, deposits are up 18%, revenue was up 39%, gross profits up 43%, and earnings were up 49%. with the first quarter being the first quarter of over $1 billion in GAP earnings. So, New Bank's business is growing extremely well and again earnings were up 49% on a year-over-year basis for the second quarter. This next screenshot comes from their quarterly investor presentation and it really shows the thesis of New Bank in a single image. Here you can see that the customers of New Bank are continuing to grow very well. The average revenue per customer is also growing. the gross revenue of the business is pretty much exploding and then the cost to serve is actually coming down represented by the efficiency ratio also declining. This ultimately leads to earnings exploding and earnings being over $1 billion in the quarter now. So to put that simply, New Bank is continuing to grow its customers. Its revenue per customer is growing. Its cost to serve those customers is coming down and that leads to massive profit growth. In fact, if we head over to Stock Unlock here really quickly, I have a chart here that I want to show you. And what we're going to do is show the average revenue per customer and the average cost to serve those customers. And let's take a look at this on a line basis. And here you can see that the average revenue per customer is continuing to grow and scale very well. However, the average cost to serve those customers is not growing at all. And in fact, since the fourth quarter of 2020, it is down a total of 9%. While again at the monthly average revenue per user has grown 418% over that same time. This is how New Bank's business is continuing to grow its profits at an explosive pace. It is gaining customers. It's getting more revenue per customer, but its cost to serve on a per customer basis is not going up. But let's get back over to New Bank's investor presentation. And this screenshot shows us that New Bank is now the largest digital bank in Mexico. And the runway here is still massive. It also broke even in Mexico in the first quarter of this year. And now Mexico is adding directly to the bottom line and helping the bottom line grow faster. 35% of its users in Mexico had no bank account before signing up with New Bank and 52% had no credit card. Mexico is still a very underbanked nation and New Bank and Marcato Libre are the businesses bringing people online and giving them access to the digital economy. New Bank is also outperforming the credit markets in Brazil, keeping loss rates low despite the incumbents seeing loss rates starting to increase. In fact, New Bank's non-performing loans are actually declining while the rest of the market is seeing increases. This is at the same time as the business is growing 50% on a year-over-year basis and continuing to take market share. In my opinion, this shows that New Bank's underwriting capabilities are superior and better than the incumbents. Now, let's head back over to Stock Unlock and take a look at some of the KPIs. And here we can see that New Bank's revenue hit $19.34 billion in the trailing 12 months, and it is reacelerating. If we turn on the percent change in the trailing 12 months, New Bank's revenue has grown by 50.5%. Now, this is great growth at this level of scale. Next, if we take a look at New Bank's earnings, they have now done $3.61 billion in the trailing 12 months. And on a quarterly basis, you can see that this is the first quarter where they have officially achieved over $1 billion in earnings. On an annualized basis, New Bank is now doing about $4 billion in earnings as well. So, this business is growing very well and it is extremely profitable. So, now let's talk about New Bank's valuation. And here we can see that it currently has a valuation of 71.6 billion on the stock market. So, let's open up our calculator very quickly and go 71.6 6 billion divided by about 4 billion in annualized earnings. Now, which means that New Bank is trading for about 18 times annualized earnings if they can continue to produce about a billion dollars in quarterly profits. This is not a very high price multiple for a business that is still seeing its top line grow by 50% on a year-over-year basis. I understand that New Bank is obviously a bank, but typically mature banks trade for about 15 times earnings while they grow around 10% per year. So, New Bank is not selling for that much of a premium despite it seeing about five times as much growth as your typical bank. If we also take a look at New Bank's forward PE, it's currently sitting at 14.3. This in my opinion is an extremely low multiple for a business that is growing so rapidly and in my opinion has such a long runway for future growth. So I do think that new bank is actually quite undervalued in the market right now. Now the reason that I do not own new bank in my portfolio is because I have Marcato Libre and Marcato Libre has grown into a pretty large position of mine. Marcato Libre has its own fintech business that is largely the same as Newbank. But I think that Marcato Libre actually has some competitive advantages because it has even more data on its customers because a lot of its customers also use its e-commerce platform. So Marcato Libre can see what its customers are spending money on on the e-commerce platform as well and get even more insights and data there. Additionally, Marcato Libre's fintech business did $15 billion in revenue in the trailing 12 months, which puts it roughly two quarters behind where New Bank is. Or in other words, it's almost the same size as New Bank today. But Marcott Libresy's entire business is valued at around 100 billion in the stock market right now. So for an extra $30 billion I am getting roughly the same size fintech business maybe delayed by about 6 months. The largest e-commerce platform in Latin America a massive media and subscriptions business and also a massive highly profitable and rapidly growing advertising business. Again all of that for an extra roughly $30 billion. So I think that Marcado Libre has a little bit of a stronger moat, much more tailwinds and just a much more diversified business too. So I think that the premium for Marcato Libre is more than justified and I think that Marcato Libre is even cheaper in the market today than New Bank. But I still think that New Bank had a fantastic earnings result and I think that this stock is also undervalued in the market today. All right, now let's move on to the fourth stock that I want to talk about. And this one is Palunteer because Palanteer, I think, had the best earnings report of the entire season, at least from what I saw. So, let's take a look at the highlights. This screenshot shows us that Palunteer had 115% US revenue growth and it grew 23% quarter-over-arter. US commercial revenue grew 149% and US government revenue grew 90% year-over-year. Total revenue grew 93% which means that Palunteer's business nearly doubled on a year-over-year basis which is just insane. And operating in free cash flow came in at about 1.22 billion with a 63% free cash flow margin. So Palunteer's business is highly profitable while nearly doubling its revenue again on a year-over-year basis. That is truly impressive. Palanteer is also expecting revenue of about $2.16 billion for the third quarter, which is 83% year-over-year growth versus Q3 last year. It's expecting the fullear revenue to come in at 8.15 billion, which is fullear growth of 82%. So, Palanteer is expecting to nearly double its business in 2026. And then lastly, we can see that it is expecting free cash flow of 4.6 6 billion for the full year which is a free cash flow margin of over 50%. So it is expecting to be highly profitable for the full year as well. Now the next screenshot here shows Palanteer's cash flow statement and I want to show you this because it's truly ridiculous. Here we can see that operating cash flow came in at 2.1 billion for the first 6 months of 2026 versus 850 million for the first 6 months of 2025. So operating cash flow has more than doubled on a year-over-year basis year to date. It's actually up about 150%. However, Palanteer's capex, which is its property, plant, and equipment purchases, was only $22 million so far year to date, and last year it was only $14 million. So, Palanteer has more than doubled its operating cash flow, while its capex only increased by $8 million. and almost all of the operating cash flow has become free cash flow for the business which means that this cash is flowing straight to the balance sheet. So to put it simply, Palunteer's business is an absolute cash printer. Now the final screenshot that I want to show you is Palunteer's rule of 40 score which is sitting at 155. Nvidia has a score of 153 and then you can see all of the other very high quality companies that are much further down. And this is just ridiculous. A rule of 40 score of 155 shows just how much that Palanteer stands out on its own, especially in the software industry. So now let's head over to Stock Unlock really quickly and take a look at some of Palunteer's metrics here. And in the trailing 12 months, we can see that the business has now done about $6.2 billion of revenue. And if we turn on the percent growth rates, we can see that the revenue growth has been consistently accelerating since the fourth quarter of 2023. So, there has now been 3 years of consistent acceleration with the trailing 12 months revenue growing by 79%. Palanteer's free cash flow is also scaling extremely well with 3.4 billion produced in the trailing 12 months now and you can clearly see that the free cash flow of this business is growing rapidly. Now, as I said earlier, Palanteer is expecting about $4.6 billion of free cash flow for this year and its market cap is currently about 416 billion. So if we divide this by 4.6, then it means that Palanteer's business is trading for a price to free cash flow of about 90 based on their current year estimates. This is still a very high multiple to pay for any business. Again, 90 times free cash flow. This isn't sales we're talking about. This is their free cash flow guidance for this year. So I do think that Palanteer's business is still on the more expensive end. And I do think it is worth running a quick DCF to show you what I mean here. So here in this quick DCF just as an example I said that Palunteer will grow its free cash flow by 50% annually over the next 3 years and trade for 55 times free cash flow. And even in this DCF we get a 12% compounded annual growth rate to the share price. So don't get me wrong I think that Palanteer is an incredible company but it is priced for a lot of growth here. Buying the stock right now means that the business would nearly have to quadruple its free cash flow over the next three years and maintain a 55 multiple. It's not impossible, but I think that this is a lot to ask from the business just for a 12% annual return to the share price. So overall, I think that Palunteer's fundamentals are absolutely ridiculous. I mean, I don't think you can even question that at this point. Again, revenue is nearly doubling with a 63% free cash flow margin with capex basically not growing at all and with the balance sheet being pristine. My only sticking point is I think that a lot of this growth is already priced into the business. And even if it continues to see very strong growth and trade for a high multiple, then it could still produce around a 12% annual return. So, it's not impossible that the stock could beat this DCF in these estimates here. But I'm a more conservative investor and I don't really want to underwrite this growth into my portfolio just to get a 12% annual return. So for me, I'm going to continue passing on Palanteer. But seriously, the fundamentals of this business are absolutely incredible. All right, let's now move on to the fifth and final stock that I want to talk about in this video. And this is the one that I have started to buy and add to my portfolio. Now, full disclosure, I want to make it extremely clear. I am keeping this one as a very small position because I am considering it a little bit more speculative until I continue to see increased improvements from the business and I guess I should let you know that this stock is apploving with the ticker symbol app. So for now I am leaving it a small position and as my conviction grows and as I continue to see execution I will continue to grow my position. But let's talk about this stock now very quickly. Apploving is specifically an advertising business on mobile games. That is their entire niche and that is where they dominate. They have over 1 billion daily active users that see their advertisements every single day. And they act as the intermediary between the advertiser and actually placing the app in front of a user wherever they think that it would best suit the user. Now, the reason the stock has fallen so much after earnings is because they had a slight revenue miss by 1%. And I think the market is freaking out way too much because they still grew revenue by over 50% in the most recent quarter. And they are guiding for another 47% year-over-year revenue growth rate in the third quarter. So yes, the revenue growth is decelerating and they are projecting it to continue decelerating, but it's still growing extremely well and the business is trading for under 17 times forward free cash flow. To put it simply, I think the stock is now priced for about 5 to 10% annual growth and the business is still seeing well into the 40% growth rates. So the price to growth I think is just at a total disconnect which is why I have started to buy into the stock. So let me show you some of their KPIs here on Stock Unlock very quickly now. And the first one is obviously their revenue. Now Apploven's historical revenue is a little bit noisy because they did own gaming businesses to gather data. So the revenue growth not being very impressive is when they owned actual gaming studios. So what I like to do is go and take a look at their software platform KPI here because this is the business's growth as it stands today. This is their advertising engine, their software platform revenue, which is pretty much the entire business as it stands right now. And here you can see that in the trailing 12 months, their software revenue has been 6.83 billion. And it has been compounding by about 89% annually since 2020. Now, if we turn on the percent growth rates and zoom in here, we can see that the growth rates have been decelerating, but the business is still growing by 60% on a trailing 12 months basis. If we turn over to a quarterly basis once again we can see that the revenue growth rates have decelerated to about 53% in the most recent quarter but the business is still growing very very rapidly. So now let's take a quick look at Apple's free cash flow and in the trailing 12 months they have produced about 4.53 billion. Now, in the most recent quarter, they were hit with a large amount of international taxes, which is why their free cash flow was down for that one quarter. But over the longer term, management said that they believe their free cash flow margin will remain extremely high. And while we're on that topic here, we can see that even with that large one-time tax hit in the most recent quarter, Apple has produced a 66.3% trailing 12 months free cash flow margin with their average over the past about 18 months being 70%. And they believe that they can maintain around a 70% free cash flow margin going forward. So this is a highly profitable business. It has even higher profit margins than Palunteer and it is still growing its top line by over 50% with roughly 47% revenue growth expected for the next quarter. So now let's take a look at App's forward price to earnings ratio and it's trading for 16.7 times forward earnings. And you can clearly see that this is on the low end of how the stock has historically traded. Let's also take a look at its forward price to free cash flow. And it's currently trading for about 16.6 times forward free cash flow. Again, while the business is still growing by over 40%. So, let me show you a quick DCF on Apploven now. And on an annualized basis going forward, I believe that this business is down doing about $5.2 billion in free cash flow. So, over the next 3 years in this DCF, I have them growing free cash flow by 15% annually and trading for 20 times free cash flow. Now, if we take a look on a trailing 12 months basis, the business is actually trading for about 22 times free cash flow right now. So, this is factoring in some more multiple compression and simply saying that the business will continue to grow free cash flow by 15% annually, which is a significant deceleration from the growth rates the business is currently seeing. And in this DCF, I still get a 17% compounded annual growth rate to the share price, a fair value of 376 bucks, and a future stock price of $500 per share. And I want to make this extremely clear. I think that this is a very very conservative DCF for apploving. The CEO believes that the business can actually continue to compound by 30% annually over the longer term. And if the business can do so, then I think the multiple fairly could be at least 25. And in this scenario, the compounded annual growth rate to the share price is roughly 43%. The fair value would be 678 bucks and the future share price would be $900 or about a 200% return over the next 3 years. And again, this is simply the business achieving what the CEO believes the growth rates could be over the longer term and getting back to a 25 price to free cash flow, which I think is more than justified and fair for this business. So, in a very conservative DCF, I think Apploven could still produce strong returns. And in a more realistic DCF, I think the returns are absolutely stellar. And this is the entire reason why I have taken on a smaller position in this business. But for Apploven, as I said, I am keeping my position small at just over 1% of my portfolio until I continue to see continued progress and strong growth from the company and its future earnings results. But the entire thesis really comes down to the fact that this business is very profitable. It has extremely high free cash flow margins. It's still growing by over 40% per year and its forward price to free cash flow is only 16. Now the price to growth disconnect is one of the widest I have ever seen in the market. And that's enough for me to throw in some cash and say, you know what, let's see what happens here. Because even if the business continues to grow by very modest growth rates, it should produce double- digit returns. So that's why I have bought some app in my portfolio. I'm going to continue tracking this one and I thought that last quarter was still pretty dang good. Also, just very quickly, I have made a full dedicated video to AppLovven over on my Patreon. So, if you want to get access to my more deep dive on Apploven and hear me discuss this entire investment thesis, then you can sign up to my Patreon and you'll also get all of my buys and sells and so much more content from me. It's only $15 per month and my Patreon members have been absolutely loving it over there and I think that you will too. So, I'll leave the link at the top of my description. But with all that being said, that is going to wrap up today's video. If you enjoyed, please remember to leave a like. And if you want to see more content like this, then please remember to subscribe to the channel as well. As always, thank you so much for tuning in. I truly do appreciate it. And I hope to see you again in my next
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