The Big 3: GOOGL, AMZN, SPCX

Welcome back to Trading 360. I'm Mara Kaden. It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks, three charts, and three trades for you. Rick Dat will take us through the charts. Here to take us through the trades, Charles Moon, stock strategist at Prosper Trading Academy. Charles, great to have you back on for Big Three. Would love to kick things off with your thoughts on this market action we're seeing. I I had someone describe it as the calm before the storm these first two days before all of the data and the earnings that we're getting tomorrow. Yeah, that's essentially what we're seeing. If anything, we're seeing more riskoff trading within the sector of AI. Uh, obviously, you know, the history of Nvidia's performance after earnings hasn't been great. Uh, they've certainly destroyed earnings going on for several years now. Uh, so the beats and the raise in guidance isn't going to be a surprise. Uh, it's been the the general performance of Nvidia, which has been down after earnings. Um and I I think that people are kind of anticipating that. So we're seeing a little bit more riskoff trading. Uh we've seen this, you know, the markets in the in the last week and a half kind of uh hit these kind of gap ups or open higher only to work lower intraday as well. So you know there's a buildup in anticipation. Uh this is obviously ahead of the inflation data as well. And of course, uh, you know, Fed Worsh's, uh, you know, uh, uh, remarks and comments coming on Friday could certainly have, uh, massive implications for the rest of this year as well. So, it's not too surprising to see kind of this choppy weakness that we're seeing drawn out overall. >> All right, so let's dive into your picks then today. Your first trade, you've got Alphabet here. We had a nice pop in Alphabet beginning of the month, but we've been pretty sideways since then. So, how are you looking at Alphabet right now, Charles? >> Yeah, I love the upside. They're getting trapped up by these faster EMAs. So, there's definitely some technical resistance, but that also leads to a buildup of potential breakouts, right? So, when we see sellers stepping in to try and fade the stock, uh we always want to focus on those points where the stock could get above and really move. And what really coincides that is that there's a lot of upward trajectory without much you know what we would say technical interference. So two things number one I need Google to break above 352 and stay above that price. And if it does I love the potential to run to 370. So I'm actually looking at a shortdated option in this environment looking at the September 4 362 half calls. Those will be trading at around 385 at the time. I would like to get in at that price or lower. I'm going to be risking 40%, but again, if it works out, you should easily be able to scale it over 100%. And again, I wouldn't take this trade until it breaks that 352 threshold. >> All right, we're just below that right now, that 352 threshold. We're right about 34638ish right now. Rick, what are you seeing in the technical setup? And did that level also stand out to you? >> Right. I have highlighted 352 here. That's roughly where we had our highs in yesterday's session here. So if we were to keep moving up from beyond that point, uh we could see perhaps uh some uh resistance here around 360 that was a high point during our decline or 383 perhaps. That was another high that we established recently after earnings. Never quite uh reached these old highs that we saw here near 394. Either though if we were to keep moving lower, our green lines would be in focus here. 340 our low points that we repeated several times after this gap to the upside. and also another more extreme low after earnings near 315 here. So when we think about our moving averages next our exponential moving averages that we follow 5day 21day 63-day all clustered together between about 345 to 350 here. So these tightly uh uh kind of clustered moving averages suggest lack of clear trend directionality kind of just moving sideways. We've had some chop but overall not really a lot of net movement. Meanwhile, the 251day EMA, our long-term yearly EMA in orange, comes in right around 313. So, that could be another area to watch here. RSI triangular shape right below the 50 midline here. So, a very slightly more bearish lean, but uh we could see that change quickly if we do start to break out and solidify to one direction. Finally, our volume profile study shows that we have one node here 357 to 367 and another one down here around 340 or so. Our point of control comes in near 318. That's the heaviest trading area of all on our yearly chart. >> All right. And we are again just a little bit lower about a half not even a half of a percent lower on the session around 34640 but again waiting for that 35250 mark before executing that potential trade. Your next one here is Amazon. We've got Amazon also trading down just a little bit today as well, but year-to date up about 13%. What do you like about Amazon right now, Charles? >> Yeah, I mean it's the same thing as Google. Both Amazon and Google have hit these, you know, faster EMAs and have actually rejected today. That's why they're getting pushed lower and certainly with the market retracement that's not helping. So, this is pretty much the exact same setup. I'm looking for that trigger breakout potential just above 265 for a rally all the way up to 280 plus. And if they do break and hold that 265 level, same thing forth I like the 270 strike calls. Uh 350 or lower, same risk values at around 40% and same type of return easily over 100%. They both have these unobstructed what's what I call uh as a chartist profit pockets where these stocks can move without much interference. uh there's you know a lot of retail traders use technical analysis and usually when there's come you know key technical levels coming up they use these as an excuse to take profits sellers will lean on these levels as a backs stop to short so without any reason for riskoff trading or for initiation for shorts these breakout potentials are certainly in the picture so Google and Amazon very similar and uh very similar structure and very similar opportunities here >> all right so as we Look at the setup for Amazon. A similar style trade here for Amazon from Alphabet in terms of how Charles is looking at these names. But is the technical setup also similar here? >> Well, what I see here is that we had our highs 28720. We've had a rather steep decline. We did uh make our way below the initial lows that we saw after our earnings gap to the upside. Now we've seem to have bottomed out around uh 258 257 roughly. But uh we have not uh taken out these old highs that we saw here yet near 255. So overall our shape could be described as a falling wedge type shape that we have here. So typically regarded as more of a bullish type of setup here, but really it can go either way. What you'd be looking for would be a break beyond either of those two boundary lines to give us that type of breakout price activity where you get the cascade of orders triggering when one of these established support or resistance levels is eventually breached. So when we think about our moving averages in this case kind of a similar situation in some ways to our last chart. We again have two very tightly clustered moving averages. Our 5-day and our 21day in this case both coming together near about 261. But in this case, it's not really that same sideways grind. We had a very uh sharp spike to the upside. We've kind of retreated a little bit. So, our shorter term moving averages kind of just coincidentally are on top of each other. So, not really the same situation, even though it may have some similarities at a glance. But, we do also have our 63-day EMA. 250 361 is where that one comes in. Our quarterly EMA just a bit below. So, if we were to break down below our old downward sloping white trend line, which now would be supportive, that could be another area to watch for uh uh potential support. RSI 51 trending downward, still above the 50 midline. So, slightly more of a bullish read. When we do think about volume profile as well, our two nodes that are closest to our current activity come in here, 260 to 265, and here 272 to 275. If we were to move lower, things start to pick up again quite heavily near about 250 or so. >> All right, right now, right in between there, we're at 26050 down about 610 of 1%. Now, your last pick here is SpaceX, and we've talked about SpaceX before. Last week talked about it, Charles. You wanted it to get above 135, that IPO price, and hold above 135. We are now above it. We're holding. We're at 13722. We're up a little more than a percent and a half today. So, how would you approach SpaceX now? >> Yeah, and again, if they remain, you know, above that 135 threshold, I love the upside. Now, uh a little notch on the chart, the 50 SMA just started showing up. So, that's right around 140. So, that's going to be short-term interference in my opinion, but I think they close above that level, there's a pretty easy route to profitability up to the 150 155 marker. and above 155 there's that breakout potential to 175. So same thing if they remain above 135 they get above 140. Once they get above 140 I'll be looking at the 143 calls for the sept uh SEP fourth expiration uh 385 or lower same variance of stop 40%. These stops are designed because once they get below these levels essentially that's where you'll see the retracement in premium. So there's no reason to be long if they're below those levels. I don't think the upside will be as as significant as the others because I do have some concerns that they may not be able to break 150 in the near term. But if they do uh get up to that 150 price, your return should be easily 90% plus. But if it does break through 155, I could see a very explosive move towards 175 and then it becomes a home run trade. >> All right, so let's take a look at the technicals then, Rick. And of course, we don't have a lot to work with here because they've only been public for the summer here. But as we look at SpaceX, that 135, that IPO price, a significant level, then we were looking at potentially 140, then getting above 155 with potential for a breakout. What levels were sticking out to you? >> Well, you are right. We don't have a ton of data, but the nice thing about technical analysis is that it's more fractal in nature, meaning the same concepts apply regardless of the time frame. For example, we still could see we have a trend line here. Even though we're on an hourly uh chart in this case, we still have a low point and successively higher points from which you could draw this line. Same deal here. We had a downward sloping trend line connecting these highs that has now been broken. So uh again some of the the horizontal levels we would be looking at then double top type of highs here near 150 like repeated lows and then subsequent highs around 150 or so or excuse me um 136 or so and then old highs here and then subsequent lows here again near about 130. So if we were to again advance our chart now and think about our moving averages here we have a different setup. We're using simple moving averages instead of exponential moving averages to your point of having a little bit less data. Here is our 20-day SMA. This olive colored line near 130, but we do also have enough now for our 50-day SMA. Very exciting. The small blue blip on our screen. 140 83 is where that one comes in. So, we're kind of between those two uh common moving averages at this point. RSI has broken its downward trend line here. A shorter term trend line here. We have uh 14 day. We need 14 days for the RSI. So that's why there's that large gap in the beginning there as well. Uh we are above the 50 medline and we've broken our trend line there. So more of a bullish lean in this case. Switching back to our hourly chart now. We are right on the nose of our point of control for the available data that we have above 142. Things thin out a little bit. Then they pick up again between 149 to 163. Meanwhile, to the downside, the important areas 121 to about 126. >> All right. and right now hovering right in between those averages. We are at 13750 looking for a move to the upside on that trade but SpaceX is higher on the session right now up about 1.8%. Charles want to thank you for being with us for big three today. Charles Moon and of course Rick Cat our lead market technician for always breaking down the technicals.