BIG RUMOR for the Stock Market.. (PREPARE ASAP)

Wow. Ladies and gentlemen, we have big news and big rumors to share with you here today. And if some of these rumors are confirmed, the stock market is going to rip. I mean, it's going to go insane. Ladies and gentlemen, I want to get right into it. I don't want to waste your time here. The only thing that I ask you to do is hit the like button for the YouTube algorithm to help push this video out to more people that need to see it so they can also benefit from it. So in the news today, Oman and Iran's foreign ministers came to an agreement to basically open the Straight of Hermoose. The proposed framework between Oman and Iran includes the establishment of a joint temporary shipping lane through the Straight of Hermoose and an agreement to implement a joint project to clear the Strait of Mines. But Donald Trump says today that the Straight of Hermoose mines have already been cleared. He says the US Navy has already removed or detonated all of the mines in international waters of the straight of Hermoose. Trump warned Iran that any vessel placing new minds will be immediately and systemically destroyed. And also earlier in the news today, it says Iran sets Hormuse conditions through Pakistan. A source close to Iran's negotiating team told Tasnim that Pakistan's army chief carried no US threat during his visit and instead sought to reopen negotiations. Iran reportedly outlined its straight of Hormuse conditions including a US return to the Islamabad agreement and implementation of clause 5. Pakistan is expected to relay Thrron's position to Washington. So basically behind the scenes there is likely some kind of communication to end the war or not to end the war at this point. And let's be honest, the markets do not care about who dies or who is bombing who. The markets could care less. the markets care about oil and the straight of her moose in which I will tell you Donald Trump said a couple of weeks ago he would be willing to walk away from the Iran conflict altogether if the straight of her moose opened without tolls. So we'll see if there can be an agreement done here. It is in Trump's best political interest to end the conflict to get gas prices lower heading into the midterms. And boy, let me just tell you, if this happened, the stock market would rip on this news because the straight of her moose being closed and oil staying elevated is having an impact on bond yields. Bond yields are going higher. Inflation expectations are going higher. The Fed is, you know, these bearish expectations are being priced into the Fed. A lot of that just because of what's happening with oil. So, if the conflict with Iran did come to an end, that's a big if, it would clear up a lot of the market's problems right now. Not all of them, but a lot of them. And again, it would be fuel on the fire, per se, to continue this broadening trade. AI hardware stocks, that trade's not coming back. It's going to eb and flow. There's going to be little bounces here, little bounces there, big drops there, big rallies here. But the AI hardware trade is the least positive affected area of the markets by any deescalation in the Iranian conflict. Instead, cyclicals, communication services, financials, nonAI industrials, maybe even healthcare and software would be the outperformers. Hell, even consumer defensives like a Walmart could benefit a lot from that as well. Now, it was reported today via a White House official that no talks or discussions are currently underway or scheduled with Iran, but again, it's the fog of war. That's what both sides continue to say. Donald Trump today orders a substantial reduction in US South Korea military exercises. Trump went on to say that the United States is basically paying for these military exercises, that Iran has been unthreatening. They really haven't done anything wrong. and it's sending a hostile message to North Korea. Donald Trump went on to say that when he asked South Korea for help in the Iranian conflict, South Korea said no thanks. Donald Trump also says today, quote, "Canada has been ripping off the USA for decades. They have been charging our farmers 400% tariffs and more." He says Canada spent 10 years refusing to certify Gulfream jets until he intervened adding that quote they wanted 100% of the market for Golf GFream Canadian competitor and closes they feel entitled but they are not a state and will not be entitled no longer. So trade war with Canada is getting worse today. And you would think Donald Trump knows better right before the midterms. can't have everything going wrong. Like Canada trade war in and of itself, not a big deal. But Canada trade war on top of an Iran war on top of sanctions on China via economic D-Day and you're going to crash the markets, bro. I don't think Trump wants to do that before the midterms. So, I do think if you're going to escalate things with Canada, you are probably going to deescalate things somewhere else. And that could be Iran. US CB consumer confidence today came in at 89.4. The forecast was 90.2 and the previous month was 90.8. So that missed expectations. US July new home sales fell 10.5% to 607,000 also missing estimates. That is also down for the median sale price about 1% from July of 2025. So yeah, really bad real estate data today. US Conference Board says consumers average and median 12-month inflation expectations were slightly higher in August. Most consumers uh 61.3% still anticipated higher interest rates over the next 12 months, down moderately from 62% in July. Fed Collins today says, "I will be looking for evidence in the coming months that inflation is durably returning to 2%." Fed Collins says, "I consider disinflation as the most likely outcome based on limited additional tariffs and progress on reopening the straight of moose." Fed Collins says the rise in longerterm interest rates should work against a reaceleration in demand. Fed Collins then went on to say it is appropriate to raise interest rates quote soon absent evidence of sustained disinflation. The Canadian trade minister LeBlanc says the government intends to announce retaliatory tariffs today. The ADP employment change weekly came in at 11.75,000 jobs. The forecast was 9.5,000. So that was a little bit better than expected, but still there's been a lot of weakening here in the ADP employment change from a weekly basis. We were running at like 40,000 jobs back in April or March. So you've been falling pretty consistently here. And this is not really that much of an improvement. And look at this croc of Enthropic is expected to tell investors its potential revenue opportunity exceeds $30 trillion. Get this. The 191 technology companies in the S&P500 brought in 2.4 trillion in revenue last year combined. Yeah, they're they are literally working it to dump on mainly retail. I don't really think anyone in the hedge fund or institutional world that is not already invested in Enthropic is going to be participating in that IPO. That that is literally a liquidity dump as the markets are flipping on AI hardware. Now, we do have some major earnings today in after hours specifically for some of you software investors. Inuit, that's a big company reporting earnings today. What is that over a hundred billion dollar market cap? That's going to move the needle for software. You have seen, you have Zoom, Box, Joy, and others. Tomorrow morning, you have Kohl's, Abocrombie, and Fitch, William, Sonoma, JM Smucker, Bath & Body Works. And after hours tomorrow, that's the big day. Nvidia, Salesforce, Crowdstrike, Octa, Synopsis, Viva, and Nanix. And then Thursday, pre-market, Best Buy, Billy Buy, Dollar General, RBC, TD Bank, and Hormeell Foods, as well as Burlington. in after hours on Thursday. Marll, I autodesk, Affirm, Alta Beauty, Workday, Centennial One, Rubric, Elastic, and Gap. So, the next 48 hours are going to be absolutely insane, at least from an earnings perspective, and it's going to get even crazier if the Iran conflict does come to an end, which we could probably hear some news on that in the coming hour. Canada today unveils retaliatory tariffs on about 20 billion of US goods. Again, it's it's very nominal, so it shouldn't affect things all too much. Stanley Ducken Miller leads doubters who think Bessen's bond PS will fail. In a published oped, Dereken Miller said Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's efforts may not only fail to bring down government bond yields, but also damage the department's credibility. Drunken Miller was a mentor to Besson when the two worked for George Soros. If we take a look at your indexes today, the Russell 2000 is up 0.31%, NASDAQ 100 up 0.67%, NASDAQ up 0.62%, S&P is up a third of 1% and the Dow is up about a tenth of 1%. 10-year Treasury yields today are down about six basis points. I think this is probably because of the good news or rumors that we're hearing about the straight of her moose and what the next, you know, government headline could look like. Oil today also falling 3.32%. So again, people are kind of positioning for the next positive headline in the Iranian conflict. Now, if we take a look at the heat map today, you guys can see semiconductors definitely the bright spot. I think you've just seen so much selling in semiconductors recently. Getting a little bit of a bounce here does not surprise me again within computer hardware, semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, materials all doing well. Communication um uh equipment as well like a Cisco also doing okay. Software is kind of a mixed bag today. Some are doing okay, some are not. Communication services again, Netflix doing quite well, streaming services doing quite well, Apple 11 doing quite well. But the group as a whole, nothing stand out here. Again, within financials, your AI financials like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, they're doing well today. But everything else, not as much. Industrials, some of your AI names are doing well, like Eaton, right? Doing quite well. Tesla consumer cyclicals doing very well. Other names not as much. Healthcare kind of a mixed bag there. So it's kind of a weird day from a rotation perspective. You've you're kind of going back to AI stocks a little bit today, but there's a lot of riskoff behavior and that doesn't surprise me as you have, you know, intuit earnings today and after hours. So that's going to be big for software. But then tomorrow morning you have PCE. Tomorrow and after hours you have Nvidia earnings. Thursday you have more software earnings, big software earnings. And then Friday you have Jackson Hole and Kevin W's speech. And then Friday morning you also have the annual revisions for payrolls. So I'm not surprised that it's kind of a mixed bag out there. Even though the probabilities of a pause by the Fed are moving higher today, you are now pretty much pricing in a pause for October 28th as well. Yesterday, the probability of a pause was 42.4%. Today it's 46.5%. Normally, as bond yields fall, as the markets price in a less aggressive or less hawkish Fed, you would expect financials and cyclicals and software and some of these areas to outperform. That's not happening though today. And again, I think that's because there's a lot of event risk hedging for other catalysts later this week. This morning, you also had the Richmond Fed manufacturing index that came in at 4. The estimate was seven, so that missed expectations. Manufacturing shipments came in at 11. The expectation was seven, so that was better than expected. Enrichment Fed services revenues came in at -8. The forecast was -1, so that was uh worse than expected. Again, tomorrow you're going to have PCE, durable goods orders, GDP, um the second estimate for Q2, personal income, and personal spending, not to mention Nvidia earnings. and we will talk about that in the next video. Ladies and gentlemen, that is going to do it for today's episode. Do me a quick favor and hit that like button, subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already, and if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next