Big Moves: NVDA, SPCX, ORCL

Welcome back to [music] the watch list. I'm Nicole Pedalites. It's time for Big Moves where we highlight outsized options trades taking place in the market. And joining me, Tom White. And I'm so glad we're starting with Nvidia because I wanted to ask you about Nvidia, but I wasn't sure which ones you were covering. And I was pleasantly surprised because I wanted to hear your thoughts. I mean, we saw the options market yesterday with so many calls, the strike price at 220, very few under 200. Most people were betting very positively despite the fact that for the last four quarters, great numbers, but the stock went down. Now we're bucking the trend. I wanted to see what stood out to you in the options market and your thoughts, Tom, today on Nvidia. >> Yeah, Nicole, we've seen a lot of volume in there and the call skew has been pretty steep uh in here because the expectations were pretty low. I mean, you looked at it like I believe it was 10 out of the last 12 trading sessions, the stock was in the red. uh they had a 7-day losing streak. So, the bar was relatively low, but the option traders in here were actually skewing towards the upside uh over the past couple of days. Now, today, uh call volumes about four times normal daily average volume that we've seen over the last week of trading. So, they're piling more into calls. Nearly 4 million calls traded on the day. Uh only about 1.8 million puts. Uh but that uh calls uh call volume is about four times uh uh normal daily average volume that we've seen over last week, but put volume issues about three times normal daily average volume also in there today with the stock up over 8% today. Now up 22% on the year. It's now only about 4% off of those all-time highs that we saw in May. Remember we had been rangebound between about 190 and 210 uh you know for the past month and a half, two months or so. So think about this. The move today puts a market cap up uh surging about $400 billion. That's the size of Costco, Bank of America or Cisco. I mean basically they gained a market cap one day uh the uh the market cap of those uh each one of those uh companies which is about 400 uh billion dollars. Uh so having a record day on that 106% revenue jump on a year-over-year basis. the revenue growth outlook of 70% for fiscal year 2028. So yeah, they hit everything across the board except for margins. They got it a little bit lower down to 74% for the current quarter and maybe bottoming out at 71 to 72% over the next year or two. Uh so that was probably the the only caveat in this really groundbreaking uh record quarter for the company. Uh but we did see some bullish activity in there. A lot of short-term stuff in the August 28th weekly cycle. Of course, you get a lot of uh you know uh you know speculators in there uh you know just looking for one day moves. But this was out in the September monthly options. So these expire in about 22 days. Uh early this morning trader bought over 20,000 of the 230 strike calls paid an average debit of $4.50. So these are already working out really well for this trader. So the break even for the uh uh is 23450 to the upside over the next three weeks uh to get to profitability on this one. That's only about 2 and a half% 3% above the current share price in there. So another day like today and this uh traders already profitable, but they got three weeks in this position and a lot of calls getting traded in there more than double what puts are uh in today's session. >> And I start to think about how the NASDAQ gets to resistance at this level. And so while it's only a few percent away, a couple of percent away, and it seems so doable, at the same time, it's so hard to break out and above. Thank you for your perspective there and all that information on Nvidia. Let's turn our attention over to SpaceX. Those shares are up nearly 30% this month. What stood out in today's session, please? >> Well, it's back above its uh IPO price of $135. It's been a choppy trade recently. Uh but yesterday they did announce that uh hundred billion dollars was getting invested in their largest launch facility in Louisiana designed to support thousands of launches annually. That was the big news uh in there. Uh and you look at some of the commentary from uh Southside analysts on this. Morgan Stanley noted they're slated to have at least three Starship pads operational by the end of 2027. Um this is a big uh deal and this comes after the release of their Gro 4.6 uh their uh AI model uh that's doing really well at this point. Uh they said uh the in uh the uh the buyout of cursor and in incorporating their data into the new uh Grock model uh has made tangible improvements in recent performance for that model. So, it's catching up to some of its competitors, whether it's Anthropics Claude probably outstretching OpenAI at this point. Uh, so some positive news on uh this. Um, they got lockups coming on September 9th and 10th, though, so those will be a couple key dates to watch in the near term. Uh, but we did see some bullish activity in the option market, and they're also in the September 18th monthly options that expire in 22 days. Trader bought 5,000 of the 150 strike calls. It's about 10 bucks out of the money to the upside. They paid an average debit of about $3.80 for these. So that break even of 15380 over the next three weeks. That's about 10% above the current share price. So this trader is going to need a move to the upside. But it's been a choppy trade. It could easily see that stock go 10% in uh in three weeks. But uh yeah, some more call buying here in uh SpaceX with the expectations. We're going to see some more gains over the next three weeks. Yeah, the traders are betting to the upside there on SpaceX. And I'm glad you mentioned the lockup expiration. There's going to be rolling expirations. We'll even go into next year into June when uh Elon Musk has his own shares coming up. And Oracle, that's up about 15% this month, but down nearly 25% for 2026. Your thoughts? What caught your eye? The trade? >> Well, this one's been uh you know, it's relatively flat today, right? uh when you see massive tech gains across the board, uh but it's still off 57% about from its all-time highs last September post earnings. Uh and remember, they've got all these deals uh that they've done. They've taken on a lot of debt recently. Uh they're supposed to burn another $90 billion over the next couple of years building out these uh AI data centers. Uh but yesterday, city came out with a positive note on them. uh upside 90-day catalyst watch uh buy rating. They had a $330 price target on this stock still uh Nicole uh and they said that uh investor capitulation and technical selling factors led to the downfall, but they believe that robust AI demand trends can drive positive estimate revisions and the stock higher. They said it is a buy at current levels. That note came out yesterday. So, pretty bullish note there. And we did see some bullish activity in the option market today, too. And this was out in the September 18th monthly options. Uh trader bought over 3,000 of the 165 strike calls out of the money to the upside. Paid an average debit just under five bucks for these. So, that break even just under 170 over the next three weeks. That's about 13% above the current share price. I think one of the keys and maybe what this trader is setting up for and we might see some more activity uh over the next couple of weeks is they they report earnings on the 10th of September. That could be a key catalyst uh for this stock. We'll get some more clarity on the debt load that they're taking on the partnerships that they have uh the uh you data uh data center buildouts how those are going at this point and see if growth is accelerating because they the free cash flow is actually negative right now. So, uh, the investors need to hear some good news out of Oracle, uh, and that earnings report and this trader may be setting up for an upside surprise >> September 10th. Got it. Tom White, thank you so much. You can see Tom every day on Fast Market at noon. Thank you, Tom.