More & More Signals Popping Up That Suggest A Pullback Is Near | Lance Roberts

So, I'd be a little bit cautious here with exposures. We're still short-term on a sell signal. Markets are not are not overbought by any stretch of the imagination, but that's also that decline in momentum is also kind of a bit of a quote unquote bearish indicator uh in terms that that momentum itself is is starting to weaken here a bit. So, kind of from a riskmanagement standpoint, I would have stops uh kind of set around the previous highs, maybe around the 50-day moving average. Um, and expect potentially a pull back to that level. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Tagert, welcoming you back at the end of the week for another weekly market recap featuring my good friend, the Epicurian portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. How you doing, Lance? >> Doing fine this morning. How are you? >> Uh, honestly, as we talked about before we turned the camera on, um, I'm kind of running close to empty on gas this week. It's just been a crazy week. Um, I can't really complain about it. It's all largely good things, but that just sometimes things come so fast and so furious, uh, it's a little hard to process at all in real time. But hey folks, not looking for sympathy. Uh, these are all high quality issues. Um so Lance um let's let's start early on here maybe with you know the markets the TA etc. Um a big development this week was that Nvidia had its earnings call and >> crushed it again um gave unbelievable guidance. Um and so you know the question that's sort of hanging out there right now is hey in did Nvidia just save the the markets especially the AI trade. Um was this big enough to actually give uh you think a material sustainable boost to to stocks here? >> No. I mean you still got a lot of narratives going on. I mean if you take a look at you know market headlines and you know people putting out views about this that and the other thing there's still you know this ongoing debate about you know offbalance sheet financing and you know every time somebody says something then there's like yeah but over here you know open AI is not ever going to make any money. It's a complete fraud. It's an inron. So you have all this stuff that's weighing on that trade. It's just sentiment. But when you look at the actual data and again um if you haven't been to our website today at real investment advice.com we just published a daily market commentary today which is a full discussion on Nvidia and its earnings announcements and those type of things. This is kind of a analysis that we published this morning. You know revenue was up 106% on a year-over-year basis to 96 billion. That's almost a hundred billion dollars in revenue. Data center data center revenue was 89 billion. that was up 117% year-over-year. Operating income. Now, operating income is important because that strips out one-time gains. So, you know, there was a lot of conversation about Google was like, well, their income, their net income had a lot of one-time gains from their anthropic stuff. Well, operating income strips all that out. Uh 63.7 billion, that was up 124% year-over-year. Gross margins were 75%. EPS on non-GAAP was 222 that was up 122%. Now, um look, the growth is real, right? And there's certainly some, you know, issues on the balance sheet. Accounts receivables are up, no doubt about that. And a lot of the stuff that is being done on the accounts receivable side is certainly a concern because if you know the the end customer doesn't pay that accounts receivable, that's certainly a concern. That's certainly going to impact, you know, their revenue down the road. if of all their if you would just assume that a 100% of their accounts receivables are never going to get paid well you know then that's certainly worth you know being careful about right and and that's something certainly worth considering. So it it's it's not an absolute pristine you know kind of report. There's some there's certainly some things to be concerned about but that's every report. The problem is is that the markets just and particularly people trying to find the bearish case for Nvidia because they they want to they you know they're hoping for AI to crash and it's you know it's all going to come crumbling down which I'm not sure what the benefit of that is but you know that's what they want. U maybe it's because they missed out on owning the stocks that went up and so now they wanted to crash whatever the reason is. So, you can certainly nitpick um you know an earnings announcement and try to find things, but you have to make some really really big assumptions that everything that's going on with AI is a complete sham and it's never going to work out. And you and I both know that that was what everybody was saying back during about the internet back in the late 90s. And there were certainly some some ugly hickeys that came along, you know, with the dot crash. But there's a very big difference between the companies reporting earnings today versus the companies that reporting earnings like Global Crossing and and uh you know Lucent some other companies back then. Huge differences about where that revenue generation is coming from. And there is a lot of revenue coming right now. So even if there's a little bit of a ding down the road, it's not going to be this.com crisis that you know we experienced back in the the early 2000s. Um, all right. First, I just got to ask, is ugly hickeying hickeys, is that like a Texas saying or something? I've never heard that before. >> Oh, come on, Adam. You've had a hickey when you were growing up at least once, right? >> Oh, I'm I'm not saying I don't I'm not experienced in the hickey department. I've just never heard that used in the way that you used it. Um, >> that's definitely Texas slang for you. Absolutely. >> All right. All right. Good. Uh, folks, real quick, public service message. Um, Lance is having trouble with his internet. His house, wherever he lives, just seems to be a permanent lightning rod. Um, >> no, I didn't I didn't get hit by electric lightning storm last night. Apparently, somebody else got hit and our internet's been out for the last 24 hours, so I'm on a hot spot right now, so bear with me. >> Okay. Um, so we'll do the best we can, folks. But, um, okay, Lance, so here is my question to you. Um, I've got to imagine that most of Nvidia's revenues right now are coming from other companies balance sheets, right? It's it's where they're they're taking their what would otherwise would be retained earnings or, you know, their their cash flows. Um, and they're giving it to Nvidia because they're building out a whole bunch of data centers. They need chips, all that type of stuff. There's right now there's sort of a surge of of investment going on, right? Let's go ahead in the future a couple years um when these companies have have largely built out their data centers presumably. Um how much how much receding in demand for Nvidia's products do you anticipate if any? Right. I mean the the flip side of this is well there's going to be all these new data centers and they're going to need to have their chips refreshed on an ongoing basis. Um, but I wonder, is there just so much spending going on right now, capex driven spending, um, that when that abates, Nvidia might not be making as much in the future as they're making right now? >> Well, no, there's certainly going to be, you know, because there's a lot of demand right now that's coming in for the construction. And this is, look, this has been our thesis for the last year, uh, actually last two years. What, what year is this? 26. >> Yes, it's 2026. >> Yeah. So since 2023 our thesis has been that you know Nvidia is in the front and center of this whole data center AI buildout and you want to be participating in that while that buildout is going on. Now eventually at some point in the next year or two the data center construction will end. We will have built out most of the data centers. Most of that stuff will end. And then you turn into the re revenue generation side of the data centers. And this is one of the big misnomers and we've talked about this before, but you know, everybody's focusing on right now is they're saying, well, you know, there there's, you know, the the data centers aren't generating any revenue. Well, no, not yet because they're just being built. These are the factories, right? We're just the process of building the factory. The revenue comes after they go into operation. So, in the next two years, these will go into operation. And yeah, they're going to need continual upgrade cycles of chips and those type of things. But yeah, you know, there's going to be a point when we start to make that switch back that the growth rate for Nvidia's earnings, they they they can't maintain a 100% growth rate in earnings when you're generating 96 billion in revenue. You can't double, you know, you're not going to double that, you know, a year after year after year, right? I mean, it's just there's a law of large numbers. So that rate of increase is going to slow for sure. >> Okay. Um I guess a counterargument could be well hey guys that's US- ccentric maybe a bunch of other countries are going to start building a ton of data centers and want Nvidia uh to you know supply them with chips for those though it's hard to see somebody you know enough countries making up the demand that's been going on in America right now but but who knows so when the data centers start making revenues serious revenues that's really going to the hyperscalers and the companies that are building out these data centers right not not necessarily Nvidia Although of course a good chunk of that will go to Nvidia for ongoing upgrades and servicing. Right. >> Yep. And again that's when you know and again when we start to see that switch then we'll switch our holdings in our portfolios more towards the hyperscalers and and you know the guys you know the Microsofts, the Amazons, the Googles, the guys that are benefiting from the actual data center revenue. That's where you want to have your money invested then. >> Okay. All right. Um, so okay, anything else to say about Nvidia and its impact on the markets right now? >> No, I mean look, I mean it it's it quelled a lot of fears temporarily, but that that quelling of fears is going to last about 37 minutes until somebody else comes out on, you know, zero hedge or somebody else saying, "Oh, it's the, you know, the AI data center is a fraud thing." Then we right back into this whole, you know, whole cycle again for the bears. But again, it's just, you know, are you investing for, you know, in your portfolio properly? That's what we always talk about. And you know, you don't want to be heavily overweight invidia, right? We carry right now about a 4% weight in Nvidia, which is underneath we're underweight Nvidia relative to what our allocation would be otherwise if we were tracking the S&P 500 benchmark. So, you know, we're yes, we're still longing the stock, but we're underweight that position to a small degree because there is some risk to it and and we understand that risk, but we don't want to be not in that trade either because that's where the revenue growth is coming. Now, eventually that'll change. And again, all these bearish narratives are great, but how much money have you lost since 2022 following the bearish narrative, >> right? As is always the case. >> Okay. So, talking about quelling fears and I I'm working up to asking you to pull up the S&P. Um, but another big development this week uh just happened like an hour or two ago, Lance, which was Kevin Walsh gave his speech at Jackson Hole and um I actually haven't had a chance to actually view it yet. I know you've at least spent a little bit of time being able to digest it. Um, but the markets seem to like what they heard. So, you know, so it's it's another kind of fear quelling development this week. What in a nutshell, what did war say today? >> Basically, you know, he's he's he came out and reiterated what he's been saying is that, you know, for too long the market has been relying on the Fed for direction and that the Fed now wants the market to kind of operate on its own, go back to looking at the fundamentals and and pricing accordingly from there. Um but you know he he maintained his inflation outlook that that he will be getting inflation back down to 2%. Has not changed that outlook at all. Um kind of the lynch pin was the financial conditions are not restrictive at all. So so that kind of you know gave you know he kind of walked up you know kind of the capex at at 9%. S&P profits are up 20%. Credit I'm read I'm reading this right now. Credit spreads near cycle lows. um banks are easing lending standards, stocks are near highs, there's very low volatility. So from his view, policy is not restrictive at all. And and gives him a that gives him a little bit of wiggle room that if he needed to hike rates some, he could. But you know, he also came back and he said a lot of this is caused by oil prices right now, which are going to be transitory. Tariffs are going to be transitory. And so I think the overall message is is a the Fed is not going to be hiking rates at the next meeting. They still have an inflation target of 2%. That's not changing and they have every intention of getting it, you know, to that point and the markets are going to have to come to the realization that they're not going to get fed by the Fed anymore. >> Okay. Couple of things on that. Um so first off I'm just looking at gold, silver, and bitcoin which tend to you know um react disproportionately uh to liquidity >> and presumably and I'm I'm just inventing this you know as I'm looking at this but presumably uh they're they're declining after the speech because perhaps the market is thinking the likelihood of a hike is maybe higher now after the speech. than it was before. >> Well, again, you know, he gave room to hike rates and so, you know, certainly can I have not looked at Fed funds futures and they may be pricing in a slightly higher rate, but again, he did give himself some room for a hike if needed. But again, just from the rest of the tone, my takeaway is is that the Fed's probably not going to hike in September. Could they hike by the end of the year? Absolutely. >> Yeah. And we I think we talked about this last week. That's that's Darius Dale's prediction. at least it was the last time I talked to him, which is like two weeks ago, um was that he thinks the Fed's going to kind of kind of flex um in the short term here. Maybe do one rate hike, probably not, but maybe even do 50 basis points by the end of the year. Uh but that's in the process of setting itself up to then start an easing campaign. And I think you said you wouldn't be surprised by that. >> No, not at all. >> Okay. Um I'm just curious. I'm going to ask you this question. And I asked um Art Laugher and and Art knows Kevin well personally. Um they've had a relationship I think for decades. So he he knows Kevin Worsh the person. Um and he he thinks that Kevin Worsh is is going to be in that seat for a long time. He thinks he's going to be u and he's thrilled by the way that that Kevin's there. Um, but he thinks that uh Kevin's tenure is likely to be long, like 25 years type of long. Um, and he thinks that Kevin has the uh potential to be one of the greats uh in terms of the the Fed Fed chairs, at least those that that Art has known over his lifetime, but Art's lifetime is pretty long. Um, so we'll see. But the question I asked him was, you know, Wars has been really clear so far that he wants the market uh not to be uh monkeyed around with by Fed job owning or Fed policy. Um he wants to restore the market signal to be a true signal, an unadulterated signal because he said that's one of the most important signals we can have out there and rather than influence it, we want to listen to it and then use that in our decision-m. Um but then lo and behold, you know, two weeks ago or so, um the guy that put him in his place, Scott Bessant, all of a sudden did this Treasury Operation Twist. And I just got to imagine that Wars somewhere in his mind is like, "You freaking kidding me?" Like, I I just took this role. I'm sure he and Scott had talked about this and said, you know, we think restoring the market signals is a great idea. And then here you come intervening in the market, trying to influence interest rates. So do you think he feels a little punked right now by uh by the administration? >> Yeah, probably. I mean, you know, it's and and there is certainly some friction between, you know, between Worsh and Bessant and and we'll kind of see, you know, how this works out. But again, you know, as you said, you know, Wors wants a clean kind of unpolished market signals and, you know, Besset has been putting his kind of his thumb on the scale, so to speak, with with his buybacks, but those are only temporary, right? So the the buyback starts September the 4th and runs through September the 9th. So it's not a long-term operation. Um so while it may provide some near-term, you know, kind of pressure relief, you know, step back for a second. So last weekend's newsletter I told you was all about the basis trade >> and there's some distortion going on in the bond market right now because of that basis trade. Hedge about 50 hedge funds own roughly about eight and a half% of the bond market. And that's all very shortterm and they're just basically trading bonds. They're shorting bonds heavily to capture, you know, to help boost their their basis trade transactions. They've got 10 times leverage in this fun in these types of trades. So there's a lot of risk on that shorting, but that's also pushing up interest rates in the near term. So the interest rate signal that you're getting is not actually operating off the fundamentals. So when you when you take a look at the the Treasury yield, it should reflect, you know, economic growth and inflation and a little bit of a term premium. So just a little bit something a little bit extra right above the fundamentals. There's a huge gap in that term premium right now because of what's going on with the basis trade, because of oil prices, because of tariffs, and that's and and so what Bessa is trying to do is trying to get that term premium back down towards at least a a reasonable term premium above the fundamentals, which currently we don't have. So that is kind of working short-term against what Worsh wants because Wor wants a really clean signal from the markets. But at the same time, and even worse has has recognized this is those short-term traders are are are distorting that signal to a pretty significant degree from what it would be otherwise. >> Yeah. I guess a good question though is isn't that just part of the market right now, right? Like to intervene to try to bring it down to what you think is a reasonable level. That's what we've been doing, you know, for the past 20 years or so is, you know, we can always defend any one of these tactics that the central planners have intervened with to say, well, we needed that to rightsize the market. It's like, no, you don't rightsize the market. The market does what the market does. And yeah, it can get, you know, it can get too overvalued or undervalued at times, but but then the market system should clear that, right? >> Yeah. No, and and you know, it's it's, you know, you're right. for the last 15 years. And this this was, you know, last Friday's article about normal interest rates. >> You know, we're all looking at interest rates going, "Oh, these interest rates are so high. They're the highest level they've been since 2007." Well, you got to remember from 2008 to present, we had zero interest rates and massive quantities of QE. And so, the interest rate was being suppressed artificially. Now, it's returned back to normal levels. And it certainly seems high, but it's not. And we're getting back to these normal levels. and everybody's having this hard time getting norm getting getting back to used to normality. But, you know, the government is dealing with the impacts of those higher rates on the economy. You know, you've got higher interest burden coming from the higher rates. You've got impacts to the economy that are occurring from higher interest rates. You have demand destruction occurring. We just saw a Chicago PMI this morning is a good example. Went from 56 58.3 last month to 47.1. a huge in the Chicago PMI. And then this this morning we had the the revisions to non-farm payrolls. Goldman Sachs was expecting that non-farm the revisions to non-farm payrolls which we get every year which show an increase between 50,000 and 450,000 jobs more than what we originally thought were created in the economy. That revision came in at a negative 79,000. So we actually despite the fact we've had a whole slate of weak e employment numbers since the beginning of this year it was actually 79,000 jobs worse which certainly is not inflationary by any stretch of the imagination. So that you know that you're getting these signs of economic destruction that are being caused by of the combination of high oil prices from the Iran issue, higher tariffs from the administration, and then lay on top of that a push higher in interest rates because of what the Fed's been doing in terms of hiking the Fed funds rate, moving things back to normal. It's all pressuring interest rates and yields higher, which is impacting the economy. So you've got this this counterbalance of higher yields and the demand destruction occurring. it just hasn't caught up with each other yet. >> Okay. And I I really want to dig into that um with you. Um I again when I was talking with Art Art Laugher, he's very optimistic about the economy and he said I think the economy is doing great and you know very optimistic about where things are going to go and I said it's really interesting uh because I'm hearing from some people that I interview who agree with Dr. laugher. Um, but I'm hearing from a number of other people, which is no, there's a lot of evidence that is showing that the the economy is starting to cool down. Um, and I think you're you're making a good case for the latter. So, I want to I want to give you a chance to give a fullthroated answer to that. real quick. Um, one of the other factors I would put in there too is, uh, you know, because the debt service cost at the national level has grown so much. Um, and the government's response to that is to not just spend less, like oop, we got less to spend. It's just to increase deficit spending, right? So, there's a there's an interesting dynamic going on there about these these higher borrowing costs and and right now, you know, yeah, the deficit spending can be a short-term stimulus, but it creates a longer term problem in the end. >> Yeah. And look, if you get interest rates back down to where they should be probably, you're going to reduce a lot of the federal spending because that's a big chunk of it, >> right? >> We hope. Right. We hope that we hope that our politicians just don't use that as an excuse to say, "Oh, well, we can just keep spending what we were spending because everybody's used to it now." >> Well, no, just just No, what I'm saying is is that if you just if you reverse the interest on the debt that we're currently paying, right? Get interest rates back down to where they were before, you know, like back 2022 levels, right? Kind of more normal level. You're going to clip about 500 billion off spending just in interest rates. Um you're Look, the bottom line is is that >> Yeah, I agree with that. But do do you think they'll really just not spend it or do you think they'll be like, "Hey, now we got 500." >> Okay. Well, name me a politician that doesn't want to spend money and I'll agree with you. >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Okay. Um, so I'm I'm cognizant that we haven't gotten to the TA yet, folks, and we'll get there in a second. But to this economy slowing down, I I assume it's pretty clear you're on that team, right? >> No. Uh, I I think you got to be careful. um we certainly have some data that's showing that the consumer is under a lot of pressure. However, if you take a look at some of the other economic statistics, ISM manufacturing, um PMIs, those type of things, that's showing an economy that's kind of running on all cylinders. I I think I shared with you last week our economic composite index, which has gone from basically 30 to 40 in just the past few months. Mhm. >> So, but that's all economic activity. What's actually happening in the economy? Well, that's all the data center buildout. So, that's, you know, people are moving dirt, they're building buildings, they're doing all these type of things. They're spending money in the economy. So, you do have this one facet of the economy that's doing exceptionally well right now. And that's certainly feeding into the the the business investment side is certainly feeding into inflationary pressures because that's increasing the amount of commodities being used to build these buildings. More concrete, more steel, more, you know, more power, these type of more gas, more oil, you know, all that's kind of feeding in or getting fed by a data center buildout. But then you flip to the other side of this and take a look at what's happening with employment, what's happening with incomes, you know, those type of things. Those certainly show some signs of weakness. So we we have this economy that's you know generating about 1 and a half% growth but it's definitely dependent on which side of that growth factor that you're looking at because you can certainly make the case that there is some real weakness in the economy and that was my point a second ago is that if you take a look at what's happening because of high interest rates, high oil prices, tariffs, we're seeing that demand destruction occurring. it hasn't fed through to the rest of the economy yet because that business investment side that's going to last another 18 to 24 months is kind of kind of masking over what's happening for the rest of the broad economy. So going forward, however much you want to, six months, a year, is it going to be a stalemate? Meaning, you know, the the AI capex boom is is basically going to offset the um I guess disinflationary forces that you're talking about um or do you expect it to trend one way versus the other? Well, I I don't know in the next if it's the next 12 months, next 18 months, next 24 months. Eventually, the de the disinflationary forces are going to win out because those are long term. It's demographics, it's debt, it's those type of factors. So, all those are going to lead to lower economic growth and lower rates of inflation longer term. But in the near term, while we're doing all this buildout, again, you you and I have had this discussion before, the value of productive investment is that it creates economic prosperity. And what we're getting through the AI boom is we're getting a lot of productive investment for the first time since the 50s. And we're seeing that and we're seeing increases in productivity rates. This goes to your Lacy Hunt discussion you had the other day. That's increasing productivity. It's increasing onshoring back in the US. Those are all inflationary trends. That will end. Those are those are temporary, not long-term effects. The long-term effects of debts and deficits are disinflationary. And we're going to get back into that cycle at some point. Particularly as demographics continue to age and the younger generations aren't bringing in enough of of younger workers into the marketplace, those those disinflationary trends are going to continue. >> Okay. Um All right. Well, then make sure I don't forget it. Um let's trundle over now to uh the TA to the S&P. Um >> I got some questions. >> We'll see. We'll see if we can do this. Hold on. All right. >> We don't hopefully the internet connection will hold up. Hold on. >> All right. Let's see. Maybe we're about to blow up this whole interview. >> Exactly. >> No, I see it. >> Yeah. Good. Good. Hold on. Let me refresh it here. Get a real time quote here just because things have been moving while we've been talking. Yeah. Here we go. Okay. Um technically, you know, um we've had a very nice pull. So, we had this big rally um back in early August and the market kind of peaked at an all-time high that was great. We've had a bit of a pullback uh since then. We came down to the 20-day moving average. Uh came down, retested those previous highs. That's that solid black line. And the market's kind of rallied back off of that a little bit. August has actually been a pretty decent month. Surprisingly for August. August is typically one of the weaker months of the year. It's not been a bad month. We've had a positive month. Uh statistically speaking, when you have a positive August and a year where the market is up more than 10% uh about 91% of the time you've had a decent return through the end of this year. Doesn't mean you can't have some short-term volatility, but the momentum behind the market is certainly there. That's going to probably continue to carry forward. Uh we are entering September. September tends to be statistically a weaker month and it's also a midterm election year. So again, we've talked about before potentially having a bit more of this kind of correction that we're already in. um will likely potentially continue. We could either consolidate or have a a larger correction, maybe down to the 50-day moving average as a as a as a target. So, I'd be a little bit cautious here with exposures. We're still short-term on a sell signal. markets are not are not overbought by any stretch of the imagination, but that's also that decline in momentum is also kind of a bit of a quote unquote bearish indicator uh in terms that that momentum itself is is starting to weaken here a bit. Retail investors have stepped out of the markets to a large degree and we haven't seen them come roaring back into any particular trades like we haven't seen the semiconductor trade take back off again. We haven't seen a lot of other sectors, you know, kind of doing really sharp moves higher from retail trades. So, they've been a bit muted here. And of course, institutional investors are out most for the most month of August, uh, on an international basis. So, they don't return till September. So, once we get into September, we'll be, you know, basically, we just finished up earnings. So, come September, uh, we'll have that midterm election set up. We'll see what the markets think. Are they going to derisk um or or not? And then more importantly, just kind of where the next stop is. So, kind of from a riskmanagement standpoint, I would have stops uh kind of set around the previous highs, maybe around the 50-day moving average. Um, and expect potentially a pull back to that level. If we break out to new highs from here, then, you know, basically we're good to go. >> All right. Um, so pull pull that back up if you can. if you don't think it's going to blow up the connection here. Um, so we talked last week about much of what you just mentioned there, which is, you know, particularly with the mid the uncertainty of the midterm elections and the volatility there, but also um, you know, just the fact that the markets had a pretty darn good run so far this year. um that you and Mark Newton um your default is Mark's default outlook is things are going to get more choppy and volatile um between now and the midterm elections and and he expects some sort of pullback within there. Maybe not a huge one, but some sort. Um, and then again, he thinks after the midterms are over and the dust is settled, uh, he sees the market having a a pretty big end of the year and and ending at, uh, 8,000. >> Right. >> Right. Yeah. I think your outlook seems somewhat similar to his, right? >> Yeah, it's very similar. >> Very similar. >> All right. So, um, after big runs, um, assets that have have run big can can experience a pretty big pullback before they get their sea legs again to be able to move higher. Um, or they can just kind of chop sideways for a period of time and work off that overbought condition. Um, there's been a lot of horizontal movement since uh, I don't have my glasses on. I can't can't see what the uh the date is there. Uh since >> April, May. >> Yeah. Since kind of end of June, right? >> Um and then then we've had a another breakout and then we're chopping sideways again. So, I mean, could we basically just kind of go chop around in a in in a sideways range until the midterms and then things come up from there? >> Absolutely. Um again, you know, the the process of the consolidation is working off kind of the overbought momentum, the overbought relative strength. We've been working that off for the past three, four months. Um you know, and this has been a pretty challenging market this really since April, May, it's been a pretty challenging market because one day tech does well, the next day it's healthcare and financials, the next day it's tech, the next day it's healthcare and financials and staples and and it just jumps back and forth. So, it's made it, you know, if you're trying to trade the market, it's been a bit more of a challenge. If you've got a good diversified portfolio, you haven't done a whole lot this summer, but it hasn't really hurt you either. Um, and that's kind of where our case is is that, you know, we just kind of have captured that rotation back and forth within portfolios. But, you know, to your point, there's a lot of volume control right here around that 50-day moving average. So, again, I don't expect a big pullback here. But yeah, you if we get through October, we could look back at this in two months and say, "Wow, yeah, we're at the same level we were back in June. We've gone nowhere. Markets are pretty oversold here." And then that gives you that November, December setup for a rally into year end. >> Okay. Um All right. Uh I'm trying to think if there's anything else I want to ask about this. Uh no, I mean, I guess this is really kind of a real wait and see. That was the question I wanted to ask you, though. Um, one of the things that has made say the past 6 months different than much of the past recent years is that breath has really started to widen, right? That that more and more sectors have started to participate uh in the upward momentum of the S&P. So, it's not just driven all by, you know, the AI train. Um, and that's a healthy thing. Um are we still seeing that kind of widespread breath or is it starting to narrow at all? >> No, no, it's still it's still pretty broadspread right now and but it's also while it's also a bullish sign it's also a contrarian signal. So once you start getting breath the number of stocks for instance above their 200 day moving average start to get above 70 say 70 75 you know around there that's very bullish for the markets right that means kind of all pistons are firing everything's doing great but that's also where markets tend to start to peter out right because everybody's in the market at that point everybody's bought in and then whatever next piece of negative news pops up then you start to get the correction in the market so you know this is the same thing with our market breath you know we have the indicator we talked about last week, which is our market breath indicator, which you know is works exactly the same way is is that when that market breath indicator gets to very high levels, that's super bullish. It means the markets are really doing well, but historically that's also a good contrarian signal to start reducing overall risk and and and so that's something we're paying really close attention to because when that signal starts to reverse, that means money flows are starting to come back out of the market again. And so we're waiting for that kind of that reversal of money flows combined with high breath that will kind of give you that early signal to start reducing equity exposure risk and raising some cash. >> Okay. So timing of when we get to that point isn't really knowable. But in terms of your sense of our closeness to it, >> are we knocking on the door? Are we, you know, seeing it in the middle distance or is it way far? >> No. No. I mean, this could be that indicator runs uh fairly real time. It's a it's a weekly indicator, so we measure it once a week. So, we'll measure it tomorrow on Saturday when we publish our newsletter. Um, so that indicator will be in the newsletter. And what we're looking for is for that to reverse. And then we take a look at that plus the four-week average and see where we are. And if we're starting to see a reversal over the four-week average, then that's a good indicator historically to go ahead and start reduce. So, you know, what we're talking about here potentially, if there's going to be a risk reduction signal, it'll be within the next two to three weeks. >> Okay? So that means we're we're if we're going to hit it, we're relatively close. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> No guarantee we're going to hit it. But >> again, but that doesn't mean oh my gosh, the markets are going to crash 50%. >> Right. >> It just means you have a 3 to 5% correction, maybe a 10% correction and then you have your next buy signal, >> right? And again, that's consistent what you would with what you and Mark Newton have as your default outlooks. >> Correct. >> All right, we're going to move on from this. And um folks, I'm going to take just a quick moment here to talk about Thoughtful Money's newest sponsor, which I'm very excited about. Uh company called Element. Um so, uh Element is all about providing the right balance of electrolytes. And that's important because staying well hydrated isn't just about drinking water. It's about optimizing your body's fluid ratios, especially when it comes to electrolytes. Electrolyte deficiency or imbalance can cause headaches, cramps, fatigue, brain fog, and weakness. Geez, Lance, maybe we got to get you some elements. That just sounds like you're describing you, buddy. >> Exactly. >> Uh element was created to keep your electrolytes in good balance. It's a zero sugar electrolyte drink mix and sparkling electrolyte water born from the growing body of research revealing that optimal health outcomes occur at sodium levels two to three times government recommendations. It's funny, Lance. I I come from a family of doctors, so I grew up with kind of this like, you know, salt equals bad uh guidance. Um and and really what the research is finding is we need a lot more salt than we've been told we do to to function properly. Um each stick pack, and this is what a stick pack looks like, folks. Um delivers a meaningful dose of electrolytes free from sugar, artificial colors, and other dodgy ingredients. element is formulated for anyone on a mission to restore health through hydration and is perfectly suited for athletes, folks who are fasting or those following keto, low carb, whole food or paleo diets. Element was actually founded by a good buddy of mine, Rob Wolf. Rob is a pretty amazing guy. He's a former research biochemist, two times New York Times best-selling author, and he's now sat on the Navy Seal Resiliency Committee for over a decade. He was also a really early CrossFit pioneer, co-founding the very first CrossFit affiliate gym in the world. I personally have been drinking Element daily for years now. In fact, you've likely seen me on drink it on this channel many times. It's been hard to tell because it's been hidden inside this big stainless steel thermos I use. Um, but Element comes in a ton of different flavors. They're all great. Uh, since I'm more drawn to the citrus style flavors, my favorites include orange salt, uh, citrus salt, pink lemonade, and their newest flavor, uh, which is ice lemonade iced tea. In fact, I am going to have some of that right now, uh, while I'm talking here with Lance. So, um, I'm going to take this, I'm going to put it in this fancy new element, uh, thermos that they just gave me. So, all you do I've already got some water in there. So, you just you just pour the crystals in. You give it a stir or in this case, I'll just give it a little shake. Here's the cool element thermos. Um and uh tastes great. Yeah, I'm totally addicted to this stuff. This newest flavor is awesome, this iced tea. Uh so, to learn more about Element and enjoy it yourself, go to drinklntt.com/thoughtfulmoney. And if you go there now, you'll get a free 8count sample pack of Element's most popular drink mix flavors with any purchase. Again, just go to drinklementnt.com/thoughtfulmoney and start your journey to optimal and great tasting hydration. >> All right, that was most of the stuff. Oh, no, here's another topic. Fairly big topic. Um, so another development uh this week uh is a move that Trump made, and I'm not I'm not talking about naming Lake Ontario Lake America. That guy is just he is just a master of like the schoolyard taunts, right? Yeah. >> Um but um it it it it is being reported that the US is very close, if you've listened to the reports, uh to striking a long-term like 100-year lease deal with Venezuela uh for basically operation of a number of its its different oil fields. um >> which they're saying would essentially double the US proven oil reserves, >> right? Um so this would be a this would be massive. Um so I'm going to ask you in a second what you think about that, but but uh I don't have the latest numbers in front of me, but from what I have heard in the past, I think the world is buying more oil from America than any other country right now. Um, and obviously if if we we get access to these uh get the right kind of access to these Venezuelan fields where we know that we're going to be able to operate them for the next century um and that therefore oil majors can get in there and start really making the investments that that that whole supply field has needed for decades. Um will America will that just cement America's role for the foreseeable future as the world's gas station? Um maybe um look I you know one of the big concerns was over the straight of her moose right so it was like oh my gosh it's going to cut off 20% of the world's oil supply and you know that's going to be super high prices for oil in the United States and you know and all those and this is going to lead to the next financial crisis and so forth and so on right so there was all those headlines um you know when you know President Trump first took action um you know in Venezuela earlier this year everybody was like oh my gosh this is terrible outcome right but there was always kind of this plan in the background of where he wanted to get to and I think this is just the finalization of that plan that he wanted to get to which is >> to gain access to those oil supplies because the US was already energy independent and this just makes it permanently so >> so no longer does the US have to be dependent on OPEC what OPEC's doing in terms of setting prices those type of things. Um, we don't have to worry about the straight over moose because we'll have plenty of access to oil and that that that does provide a very substantial leverage if this all comes to fruition by the way. Right. So, >> this let's assume for argument sake right now it does. Yeah. I mean it it certainly provides or or certainly puts you know the US on a much firmer footing for energy policy going forward and and for energy security which is a huge a huge factor for the US is having energy security and this certainly helps provide for that. So you know it I think this will be a good thing long term and you know we'll go from there. >> Great and at least a good thing for America's interests. I'm sure other countries can can argue differently. Um OPEC will not like this. Um because it sounds like as part of this deal, Venezuela would leave OPEC, right? Yeah. You've already had what is it? The UAE has already left OPEC. So OPEC is in danger of fracturing here. Um and maybe a lot of people would think maybe that's a good thing. >> Yeah. As I say, it's been a cartel for a long time in terms of price setting, so maybe it's not so bad, >> right? Um, and some may fear that it's just a cartel under a different flag. You know, if America uh controls, you know, a huge chunk of the world's oil. Um, so that that's a debate that can be had. Although, of course, I think a lot of people would say, look, if it's going to be in one country's hands, we'd love it to be in America's hands because, >> yeah, >> they do a lot of things wrong, but they do more things right than basically anybody else, too. Um, okay. Uh so um we've got uh you know obviously there's there's always a risk of at some point you know they we we we sign a 100red-year lease agreement with them and then in you know 12 years somebody else comes to power in Venezuela and wants to nationalize which has happened before. Um, I've got to presume that that there's, you know, a lot of provisions in here that really try to minimize that happening. And and there's probably a lot of like, hey, if you guys do that, too, you know, we're going to take our warships in and just, you know, destroy everything out there. So, you know, don't don't cut off your nose to spite your face. But, you know, you can see why this would be in the long-term best interests uh of of the V Venezuela um regime there because I just to all Venezuelans, which is one presumably they'll be getting a lot more compensation for their oil than they were doing themselves beforehand, right? Um and one was because you know there was some effort from the US to you know minimize uh what they could export although they were still exporting a good amount. Um but also they just proved that they were terrible at uh at at maintaining the infrastructure and running it. And honestly Lance that's generally a hallmark of a socialist regime. So, you know, as we've been having our back and forths uh about capitalism and socialism over the past couple of months, this is definitely a modern real world example of just how, you know, socialism just destroy that c country. Um and uh and a big hallmark is that they just they just leech off the infrastructure that was there before and they're terrible at running it and then eventually the infrastructure starts collapsing and uh prosperity then commensurately uh collapses there too. Um, and presumably, I'm sure with these leases, you know, we're paying them annually, um, for those leases. Um, and I don't know if it's going to be a percentage of, you know, the the oil that we take out or whether it's just some flat fee that's already been negotiated, but presumably they'll be getting a lots of new capital from there that they can then reinvest both inside the country, but also offshore in making their own efforts to to um modernize their existing uh oil infrastructure. and and I'm sure there's probably some guarantees here that, you know, our engineers will help uh educate you and uh help you do it right. So, you know, to me, this for American Venezuela, this really does feel a lot like a win-win. And then, you know, in 100 years, if Venezuela feels like, hey, we're really good at running stuff ourselves now, you just don't renew the lease. Um, now 100 years is a long time. You know, who knows what the world's going to be like then. >> Oil might not even be an issue. We're probably, you know, all nuclear by then, right? >> Exactly. That's what I was just thinking. I was like, yeah, we may not be using oil by then. >> Yeah. And so, again, that's kind of a lifeline for Venezuela where they're like, look, as long as people are going to pay for oil, let's get some checks, right? You know, while we still can. So, um, I don't know much about the details of this deal, but kind of in theory, I kind of like it. >> No, I I I agree with you. And again to your point, you know, it's it's, you know, going to certainly help, you know, Venezuela to a large degree. Um, how how much how much it will actually translate through, we'll have to wait and see how this all works out. But, you know, you can't it it seems pretty clear that this is certainly going to b, you know, benefit their economy uh to a large degree, help make their lives better. But again, you know, this is been a lifelong history with Venezuela. In fact, I've got an article today talking about, you know, there's this whole push in the economy in the US, right, on this political run in the Democratic party for democratic socialism. And so I wrote an article today about capitalism versus democratic socialism. And you know one of the the primary you know kind of examples is Venezuela uh for socialism and how it works out and that it create you know if you think the K-shaped economy is bad in the US now you know kind of push towards democratic socialism and see how bad it gets because that's kind of what we've seen previously and they've been a poster child for that. So hopefully with the removal of Maduro and and hopefully we'll start to see a breakdown in and their kind of social elite and we'll start to see money kind of migrate through and improve their economic prosperity on a broad basis. It could be very good for them. >> Yeah. Um I'm trying to think of an analogy here, but it's it it's it's kind of like a space barshaped economy, right? Where you know it's not a hyphen that's that's rising in the middle. It's it's whatever that whatever you call that hyphen that's on the ground, right? where it's just everybody's at the lowest tier, right? >> Exactly. >> Yeah. Except for the, you know, the ruling elite or the military hunter, you know, that is >> Yeah. They're they're gia. Yeah. >> All righty. Um, okay, Lance. Um, I'm about to ask you about trades, but real quick, is there any other big topic that's on your got your focus this week? >> No, not not at all. And we didn't do any trades this week. Um we've got some kind of in the pipeline that we're setting up, but just kind of waiting to see what the market's going to do here. Again, we're kind of just stuck uh in the markets. So there's not been, you know, this is one of the the traps that investors get into, which is sometimes when the markets just do this not going anywhere thing, you start to feel like you have to do something. I need to do something. you know, I'm just I'm, you know, I look at my portfolio, it's the same as it was yesterday, or this position isn't working and and it was working before and it's not working now, so I need to do something. And sometimes doing something is the worst thing is the worst action to take. When you feel like you need to do something, you're typically better off just not doing anything, stepping back, let the market do what it wants to do, wait for a clear signal, and then take some action. And that's kind of where we are right now. This market's just been kind of grinding sideways for three, four months now. you kind of feel like you need to do something, but when you start to, you know, like yesterday the market's doing X, so I'm going to do, okay, so tomorrow morning I'm going to do XYZ, and then the next morning whatever you were about to sell is running off to the moon that day, right? So, you know, Nvidia is a good example. It was up big yesterday when everybody thought it was going to be down. So, you know, it's just been that type of environment where it's very difficult and sometimes it's better just to sit still and wait for the market to tell you what it wants to do and then take some action, which is kind of where we are right now, >> right? And also, um, August is a bit of a unique month for the markets because you have a big chunk of of traders and investors from Europe um, who basically take the month off, right? >> Yep. So, it's it's it's not uncommon to kind of have a quote unquote kind of boring market, especially in late August. Um, it's just because there's just a lot less of the players are on the field. So, wait until post Labor Day and then, you know, that that'll give you a truer sense of really where things want to head. >> Um, all right. So, >> then let's get to uh let's get to the rant. Um, and this one will be short and sweet, but um so I I called you the um Epicurian portfolio manager there. Um and epicurion means, you know, a lover of the finer things in life. Um and and typically while it means, you know, somebody who who um truly goes to the finer things like the fancier restaurants and the high quality hotels and stuff like that. Um, I I'm I'm just going to tweak the the word and the definition and the way I want to use it here is as you and I have talked a long time ago, talked many times, Lance, the things that really matter in life um are generally not financial. You know, hey, look, money is a great catalyst to a lot of things, but it's it's a means. It's not an end in itself, right? As we've talked about many times, it's quality relationships. It's living with purpose, having meaning in your life. uh and good health are the things that that really truly matter. Um so uh I think I told you I was going to do this, Lance. Um but last weekend um uh a fellow who I've met here and one of my one of my neighbors um he's got a a family cabin um out on the Truckucky River. Um and uh he's been going there for generations. But every year he brings all his high school and you know buddies that he's made sort of through his life and they have a man manation is what they call it. So you know it's a lot of guys having fun drinking a lot of beer um you know playing a lot of cornhole or whatever. Um but uh it was a fantastic day and what we did is um his cabin is literally right there on the river. So um got a bunch of inner tubes. We drove up in a car, you know, a couple miles up the road up river. Um and then we just floated down river for 4 hours. Um much beer was much alcohol was consumed by this crew. uh not me, but they had a really good time and I had a really fun time just hanging out with guys being guys. Uh and then when we floated down to where his cabin is, we just pulled out and then we spent the rest of the night, you know, eating uh uh you know uh what do you call it? Um broughtwurst and uh playing a lot of poker. I think I went to bed at like 3:00 a.m. that morning. Um, but it was just a great reminder of it was amazing. Like I say, this is probably the longest I've been without my phone uh in recent memory. Uh, you know, we all had to leave our phones in the cabin and just literally be humans for a day. Uh, humans out in nature, uh, with other humans, which is really how, you know, for for the vast majority of, uh, homo sapien existence, that's what it was like. So, it was real true living. and um you know getting away from everything both just the the chaos of regular life but of course the constant connection with digital world and it was amazing Lance I mean I I really felt that day was like 4 days worth of living relative to my average days which are you know spent reading websites and editing videos and stuff like that. So, um, for me it was just a great reminder of, you know, the importance of taking time in life to, as they say, smell the roses, but just just live authentically the way that we're supposed to, you know, interacting with other humans for prolonged periods of time. Um, which is wonderful. So, um, I guess that's my point uh for for this rant, which is, you know, try to make that space in your life. Um, you know, I understand if you've got a busy job and you've got things you want to get done. We all have to work hard for that stuff, but don't have that be a 100% of your life. Uh, and when you do make the time to quote unquote touch grass, right, and just get out there in the world and and leave the digital and everything else behind you, uh, there's just something about that that space, that breathing room you're giving yourself and the energy that comes from other people that that really does just feel like a higher order magnitude of living than kind of a regular routine. So, you know, I think everybody should try to try to I mean, try to make some time to do that at least every week, maybe even a little micro moments every day, but do something like what I did at least once a month. Um, and and you know, chalk up your living life score. Um, and again, as we've talked before, like you may be doing everything right in life, too, but it doesn't mean your number might come up tomorrow, right? So you you don't want to have when your when your life flashes before your eyes, you don't want to say, "Oh my god, all the things I was trying to set myself up to do, I'm not going to do, and therefore, I've got no good memories to reflect back on here because I just had my nose to the grindstone 100% of the time." >> Yeah. And and and you know, this goes back to, you know, what we've talked about before where, you know, there's so much social media commentary about, you know, houses are unaffordable, this is unaffordable, can't do anything, cost of living so high. And you know, and and some of that's true, but a lot of and this is the problem with a lot of sentiment surveys that we have, consumer sentiment, etc. I ask Adam, so Adam, how do you feel about things? Well, your your life may be actually okay. like you're putting groceries in the the refrigerator, you're got gas in your car, you're going to a job every day, but everything you're reading and everything you're seeing on social media is so negative. You go, man, it's just everything sucks, you know? And so we get we get embedded with this kind of psychological feeling that everything is terrible because that's all we ever hear about. And so we start benchmarking ourselves against the wrong benchmark. And you know, you look on social media, I saw this funny video yesterday. this young girl. She's probably in her her mid20s. Of course, she might have been a little older, but everybody looks like they're in their mid20s to me these days. >> Once you're in your 60s, everybody looks 20. Yeah. >> Yeah. But she's sitting in a Ferrari and she's like, "I don't know about you, but I like my Ferrari." And I'm like, "Okay, that's great. Um, but you've got a Ferrari. Okay. How did you buy? How did you pay for it? You know, how how much debt do you have? Those, you know, my mind starts going to the financial situation." Right. >> Right. And the reality is is you probably went to the dealership and said, "Hey, can I give you a couple hundred bucks to let me sit in this Ferrari and shoot a quick video?" Right. Yeah. >> But that's the point. And so now everybody sees that video and they go, "Well, you know, you know, look at me. I don't have a Ferrari. I'm really behind the curve. You know, my life sucks because I don't have a Ferrari." You know, and and I see all these people on social media is like they're, you know, they're shooting videos inside their big houses or again what you may say staged houses as well. um you know they're shooting their videos inside their houses to really just show off what they've got rather than actually just trying to produce content or whatever. But you know that you know we get sucked into that and we start measuring our bench and and your point the benchmark we should be measuring ourselves to is based on what makes us happy. Right. For me, it's it's not about having a lot of money. That's not it. It's spending the weekends with my wife out in the park, taking a walk with our dogs. That stuff makes me super happy and it costs nothing. But, you know, I I you know, look, we all need to pay our bills and that's very stressful if we're financially underwater. Absolutely, that's a problem. And we need to focus on, you know, making sure we're living within our budgets and saving some money and doing the right things. But it's important to also have a really welldefined, you know, kind of vision of what happiness is for you. You if you're trying to benchm, you know, you're never going to have a mansion worth $60 million. Most people don't. You know, yeah, there's the few that do, but the the odds are just like your odds of playing in the NFL, it's a really really smart benchmark. You know, I think everybody should benchmark themselves to living like Adam and you'll all be much happier. >> But you get my point. >> Yeah. And just FYI, Lance, um we're definitely having some technical issues with your uh with your hotspot here. Um >> yeah, I I Yeah, >> but your your audio is coming through enough that I think it's worth soldiering through here, but we only have a couple minutes left and hopefully the connection lasts for that. Um so I I agree with everything you said. you know, humans are uh we're very relative in sort of how we see the world, right? So, when we see somebody doing better than us, it's hard for us not to be bitter, feel bitter as a result uh because we feel like it's unjust. And I've I've talked many times about how how not just humans, but but most mammals are are wired for, you know, fairness or injustice, right? um they they when they see somebody getting treated better than I mean this even goes to monkeys and dogs and stuff like that um they react very negatively. They have a sense of hey wait a minute I deserve that too, right? Um so uh you said something there at the end though that I I thought was was very important which is um you let me make this claim. I'm going to bet that most people watching this video when they look when they reflect back on their life and they um they think about the times kind of where they were happiest, I'm going to guess that in most cases very little money was involved, right? This is the um neighborhood potluck. This is playing whiffle ball with your buddies, right? Um uh you know it's women gathering for ma jang which is something my wife's getting addicted to here. Um these are things that don't cost much if anything right and it's it's the the value comes not from the Ferrari that you drove to the event in or not whether you have a Ferrari or not um the the the value just comes in the living of it. And for for a lot of cases, you know, that living of of it is my point about quality relationships, right? It's just it's just being present with people and, you know, enjoying your time with them and and letting your energy bounce off of them and and uh you know, so to your point, you know, people, you know, I I think largely due to social media, um they they ch they chase the wrong finish line, right? They think, "Oh, if I if if I just have this Ferrari or if I just have XYZ, then I'll be happy." And the reality is is kind of like I said earlier about money. No, no, the Ferrari is a means to something. Um it's it's not the the end goal in and of itself. Um so, you know, don't don't misguide yourself and chase a mean uh versus chasing an end goal. And like I said, most of these end goals, whether you're a, you know, centaillionaire or whether you don't have two cents to rub together, um, the things that bring you most joy, tend to tend to be available to to that entire socioeconomic spectrum, right? To, uh, go on a walk with a good friend. Uh, to, you know, again, neighborhood pot I'm a huge fan of neighborhood potlucks, right? You all have to eat anyways. Um, so you know, why not eat together and and make it kind of fun and, you know, get to know everybody a little bit more deeply. Um, you know, it's transformative in the sense of, yeah, I could eat my meal at my table alone. Um, or, you know, I can share it and and and enjoy what my neighbors have created as well, you know, in exchange and just get to spend a lot of time with them. And again, it didn't cost us anything more than just dragging some card tables out into the culde-sac and uh you know, sitting down and and just having the courage and the will to do it. So, anyways, I'll I'll wrap this up here, folks. But um you know, a huge part of of I hope the message that you're taking from this is, you know, protect some time in your schedule for for some real living. And yeah, if you want to go do something that requires money, that's fine. I'm not saying that's bad. But I'm saying in most cases, you're probably going to get the most joy and the greatest memory for it um by doing something that probably doesn't cost anything, right? So, um go forth and and touch grass, folks. >> All right. >> And and compare yourself to the right benchmark, >> you know? Go put your get the right benchmark. It'll make your life so much better. >> Yeah. And it's funny I say this like buying this house, which is way more money than I'd ever thought I'd spend uh on a house. Um but uh you know what I'm trying to do is kind of try to sort of like these these AI capex capex investments. Um I'm trying to create something that will then be a long-term memory creator at at low cost, right? High cost getting into it. Um, but creating something where, you know, people can gather. My kids will want to come, bring their bring their, you know, bring my grandkids when when when they begin to have kids of their own. >> Um, and it's also near a bunch of things, you know, hikes and stuff like that. We're we're right near the Sierra Mountain Range. I mean, I'll from the new house, I'll be be able to be up in it in like 12 minutes. Um, so, you know, doesn't cost you anything to take your dog on a hike, right? Um, so, um, yeah, create create that space and create those opportunities, uh, to to have these type of experiences, folks. And I guarantee you'll you'll increase your quality of life and probably even increase the money in your wallet because you're not spending a lot of money on chasing some false goal because you saw somebody on Instagram hit something that you didn't. >> Yep. Exactly. >> Yeah. So, with that said, I need to go get my I need to go get my Ferrari out of the garage and uh you know >> Yeah. Make sure not to scratch the Bentley when you go by. >> Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. You know, trying to get trying to get them, you know, wiggled out. I drive a 2019 used Toyota 4Runner, just to be clear. So, >> yeah, I've been in it. I've been in it. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Nothing fancy. >> Yeah. Well, it's funny. We when we came to Nevada, we bought a car that was a couple years old. >> Mhm. >> Yeah. you know, we'll never buy new. Um, and for us, it was like going from the stone age to the nuclear age because every car that we' had before then was, you know, at least 10 or more years old when we bought it used, right? So, we're just, you know, and it's funny, we we, you know, we have all these features that kind of mesmerize us, >> but it's funny, we we hardly use any of them, >> right? >> Same way with me. So >> yeah, >> I get in my car, I drive to work. I live about four I live about four miles from work. So I'm like in the car for like five minutes, >> right? Yeah. >> So and and at the end of the day, that's 99% of what you need from the car is just to get just successfully from point A to point B, but kind of your point about Tik Tok and whatnot. You know, you go you go to the dealership and the guy is selling you on all the features in the car and it's hard not to be like, "Oh, wow. That sounds really cool." But the reality is is you really don't use them all all that much. Um, so I think it's kind of a good analogy I was saying earlier, which is yeah, there's a lot of things that you can get dazzled by and and start to chase, but you you really don't need them. And the things that bring you fulfillment and happiness and whatnot are the things that you do need, right? So that's, you know, connection to people, connection to nature, um just living living authentically versus reacting to the next text or email that comes in. Right? So anyways, I think I made that point here. Um, so in wrapping up here, Lance, um, folks, first off, if you think one of the the best ways to increase your quality of life by living authentically is to continue watching Lance Roberts on this program week in and week out, please let us know that by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below, as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Um, and if you would like to get some guidance uh for how to position your portfolio for some of the trends that Lance and I have talked about here, uh, if you have a good financial adviser who's successfully guiding you in that, great. Don't mess with success. Uh but if you don't or if you just like a second opinion uh from one that you know meets the criteria of uh you know taking into account all the the macro issues that we talk about in this channel then consider scheduling a consultation with one of the um financial adviserss that thoughtful money officially endorses and maybe you want to talk to Lance himself and the team there at RAA. To do that just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com. Only takes you a couple seconds. It's free. There are no commitments and it's a service these firms offer to help as many investors like you. Lastly, I just want to remind folks that the thoughtful money fall online conference is available for registration right now still at the early bird price discount which is the lowest we're going to offer. The conference itself is going to take place on Saturday, October 17th. Don't worry if you can't watch live. Everybody who registers will be sent replay videos of the event and you'll be sent them by the night of the event itself. So, you'll get them in just a couple of hours. Um, a lot of these conferences, they take weeks to get you the replay videos. We know they're important to you, so we try to get them to you the same night as the conference. Um, and the conference faculty is uh it's amazing. Uh, I'm not going to run through the whole list, which is getting now quite long. Um, these days are like 10 hours worth of content. So, you definitely get your money's worth. So to see the faculty and register for the conference, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/conference. And a reminder that if you are a premium subscriber to the thoughtful money newsletter, our Substack, um you'll get you've been sent a code or you'll get sent a code if you become a member, um you'll uh that code will give you an additional $50 off of that early bird price discount. Um so I want to make sure everybody registers now so that you can lock in the lowest price possible. And if you're not a subscriber to the newsletter right now, um, but you want to quote unquote game the system, I'm fine with that. You know, sign up for a month. It costs 19 bucks. You'll save 50 bucks so you can pocket the 31 uh dollars of profit. I don't care. Like I said, I want the most number of people to get the lowest price possible to attend this this conference. Um, so to sign up for the newsletter, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/newsletter. All right, Lance. Good week. This one's a little bit short and sweet. um by our past track records where we usually go to two hours. So hopefully folks enjoyed a little bit of a concise one today. >> Um >> yeah, and I apologize for the internet connection. Next week it'll all be fixed. So >> yeah, but hey, you soldiered on well and I think you know technology limped us along. We we still made it through. Okay. >> Um all right, my friend. Look, my parting words to you is, cuz I know you're a super busy guy, is to take our advice and go make some space to touch some grass and spend some time with real people in the real world. >> Absolutely. Have plans this weekend, long walk with a wife, with the dogs in the park. Can't I'm looking forward to it. So, yeah, absolutely. >> No better date with your wife than that. Um, all right. Absolutely. >> Good one, buddy. Have a great time with that. I'll see you back here in a week. Everybody else, thanks so much for watching.