Peter Thiel Just Bet $419M On This

Folks, Peter Thiel just made a massive bet totaling about $419 million. And after looking at what he bought, well, I got to tell you, you're going to want to pay attention to this. His Teal Macro just disclosed eight brand new public stock positions. And at first, they might look completely random, but they're anything but. And if Teal is right, he could be set to make a very insane return. And so in today's video, I'm going to break down each of the companies that Teal Macro bought, why I believe it bought them, and you're going to want to stick around for the whole video because by the time we get to number one, everything is going to connect and make sense. And then we're going to go on to our sponsored segment on Mayfair Gold Corp. ticker symbol ME on the NYC American. Mayfair Gold is a development stage gold company based in Toronto. It owns 100% of the Fengib Gold project in the Timmans region of Northern Ontario. Feng Gibb is a large nearsurface open pit gold deposit sitting on the same ground that hosts some of the biggest gold mines Canada has ever built. This gold mining company's also seen a lot of insider buying at the same time that gold is getting more attention than ever. I'll break down what this company does and why you may want to put it on your radar. I'll break it all down for you and let you be the judge. And as always, if you're the one taking the ultimate risk, you got to be the one doing the ultimate frisk. Always do your own due diligence on all ideas presented. Okay, so why the hell does anybody care what Mr. Teal bought? Well, Peter Teal is one of the stranger investors to come out of Silicon Valley. And I mean that as a compliment. He co-founded PayPal, helped build Palunteer, and was the first outside investor in Facebook. He spent decades putting money into things well before the crowd showed up. And he has built quite the infamous reputation here on YouTube with video after video painting a very interesting picture of him to say the least. But what makes him worth watching is that he usually isn't buying whatever Wall Street likes this month. He's not a trend writer. He likes to buy ahead of the trend. His whole approach has been finding spots where he thinks the market is missing something, then concentrating money around a big technological or economic shift. Now, of course, that doesn't mean that every pick Teal has ever made has worked out. And certainly doesn't mean that anybody should copy him blindly. But when a guy with the record of Teal puts $419 million into one specific bet all at once, well, I would say it's worth watching to say the very least. Okay, number eight. X Energy, ticker symbol XE. Hill Macro disclosed around $4 million invested here, which is tiny compared with the rest of the portfolio. X Energy is easily one of the riskiest companies on the list, but it may have one of the biggest long-term opportunities. The company's trying to commercialize a new generation of smaller nuclear reactors that could eventually be easier and more standardized to deploy than the gigantic traditional nuclear projects we're used to. As you know, traditionally nuclear power means these massive conglomerate construction projects, billions and billions and billions of dollars, years of delays, the occasional massive meltdown, and endless paperwork. But X Energy's main reactor, the XE 100, is designed around the idea that smaller reactors could eventually be built in a more repeatable way and deployed in groups depending on how much power customer needs. Now, the micro reactor space is one of my favorite areas, and we've talked about these types of companies again and again, and I think there's a lot of opportunities in the space, but Xenergy is one of the smallest ones and arguably one of the most speculative, which leads to the question, what does Peter Teal know? Now, obviously, this company has a lot to prove. We're not talking about a mature utility generating billions of dollars in profit. Today, there is regulatory risk, construction risk, financing risk, execution risk, basically all the risks you can think of. But there is something very, very interesting here. You see, Amazon has already invested in X Energy's technology and is working with the company on potential future nuclear projects. Keep that Amazon connection in the back of your mind because we're going to go back to that later in the video. Next, we have number seven, CMS Energy with roughly $40 million invested. CMS owns Consumers Energy, which is basically a giant Michigan utility providing electricity and natural gas to millions upon millions of customers. That might sound incredibly boring, but something very interesting is starting to happen inside companies like CMS, and it might explain why Mr. Teal has bought it. Their customer base could be changing dramatically as new data center, semiconductor facilities, and advanced manufacturing projects look for places where they can access huge amounts of electricity. Historically, an electric utility grows pretty damn slowly. More houses get built. Some businesses move into town. Maybe a factory opens and electricity demand gradually moves higher. But a giant data center is a completely different type of situation. One project can consume like five towns worth of electricity all by itself. So, the normal grid can't support it. BCCMS has talked about roughly 9 gawatts of potential new economic development demand and the company has estimated that just one additional gigawatt of new load could create somewhere around 2 to5 billion of investment opportunities. CMS is likely going to need new substations, upgraded transmission, more generation, more storage and expansion across huge chunks of the grid. Usually when I hear investment opportunity in regards to a company, I think, oh, that means a big capex requirement is coming. However, it works a little bit differently with a stock like this. You see, a regulated utility does not grow by winning customers away from a competitor. A regulator sets what it's allowed to earn, and that number gets calculated off the value of the equipment that the company has in the ground. So, for example, when CMS puts $2 billion into substations and wires, it doesn't just get the $2 billion back, it gets to earn an approved return on top of it, usually somewhere around 9 to 10%. And so, when capex is increasing for these types of companies, well, that's actually really good for them. Next at number six, we have First Energy, ticker symbol FE, with another roughly $40 million position. Now, First Energy provides electricity across states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey. And recently, the company has been seeing a massive increase in electricity demand with one particular type of customer, data centers. Starting to see some patterns here. First Energy has discussed roughly 6.4 4 gawatt of contracted data center demand and its overall contracted and potential data center pipeline recently increased around 30% in just one quarter for an industry that historically grows at snail speed. Oof, is that a fast timeline. Think about what's actually happening here. Companies are showing up and saying, "Hey, we'd like to build a giant new facility here, and by the way, we need enough electricity to basically power a small city." And that demand is being fulfilled at high costs. that becomes a massive infrastructure problem and one that this company can really sell into. Number five, DTE Energy, ticker symbol DTE. Roughly $40 million investment, DTE is another Michigan utility, but one of its major upcoming customers is tied to a huge Oracle data center project that is expected to support AI infrastructure connected to open AI. You have to understand this is the second order effect of AI spending and DTE has increased its infrastructure investment plan substantially with roughly $30 billion expected to go into its electrical system between 2026 and 2030. So with that, this starts looking like a very interesting setup and a very timely buy. With this company, Teal potentially gets the stability of traditional regulated utilities, but now also with an entirely new growth driver coming from these enormous data center projects. Number four, American Electric Power A. He'll disclosed roughly $42 million invested here. A operates one of the largest electricity transmission networks in America. The easiest way to think about it is that power plants create the electricity while A owns a huge portion of the highway system that moves that electricity to wherever it actually needs to go to and those highways are becoming extremely important. You see, America is trying to build more and more data centers, semiconductor plants, factories, and other massive energyintensive projects. But the electric grid was not designed for this kind of sudden demand growth. And a says it expects roughly 69 gawatts of additional electricity demand by 2030, backed by customer financial commitments. And in order to prepare for this, the company has expanded its 5-year capital investment plan to roughly $78 billion. Number three, Vistra VST. Vistra is a roughly $59 million position, and it's a different animal from the utilities we just covered because Vistra owns a gigantic fleet of power plants, natural gas, nuclear, solar, and battery storage. Vistra makes the juice. We've covered this one a lot on this channel, actually. Now, it's worth noting that this is actually a re-entry idea rather than a brand new one. Teal Macro has owned Vistra before and just built the position back up to 372,755 shares. And the customer list tells you why. Amazon signed a long-term agreement involving nuclear electricity from Vistra's Comanche Peak facility. And Meta has entered major agreements involving Vistra's nuclear power, too. This company has proof of concept. They're locking in deals with major companies, Meta, Amazon, so on and so forth. New plants take years and years to develop. Nuclear takes a decade or more. And every project drags along, permitting, construction costs, grid connections, and billions in capital. So, when demand climbs faster than new supply can physically arrive, well, well, whoever already owns the generation gets to name the price on the next contract. Next, Vista Energy, ticker symbol VIST. Don't get this confused with Vistra. They are two different companies. Vista is the second largest position in this whole portfolio at roughly $76 million and it has nothing to do with the American grid. Vista actually pumps oil and natural gas in Argentina. Specifically, Vista sits inside Vakam Morta, which holds the world's second largest shale gas resource and fourth largest shell oil resource. Think about what shale did for the United States. This country spent decades knowing huge amounts of oil and gas were sitting underground, but pulling it out was too hard or too expensive to bother. fracking and horizontal drilling flip that math and America turned into one of the biggest energy producers on the planet. Argentina has its own version of that story sitting in Vakam Morta and Vista has been going after it hard. The company produces roughly 156,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day with about 70% of that headed for export. So why does an Argentine oil producer belong next to a bunch of American utilities? What could the bet be here? Well, the first is that energy supply is simply getting more valuable no matter where you look internationally. If you look at the whole book here, nuclear electric utilities, power generation, transmission infrastructure, now oil, Vista controls one of the largest underdeveloped energy resources in the world. The country spent decades stuck in inflation, currency controls, government intervention, and investors who wouldn't go near it. President Mle over there is trying to flip that with spending cuts, deregulation, and an open door for foreign money. Vista's Bura Norte project carries 30-year tax and customs stability under Argentina's new investment regime, which strips out a huge amount of the policy risk that used to scare capital out of the country entirely. And Tila is not watching for a distance. If you've been following the news on this, he moved to Buenos areas with his family earlier this year, bought a house there, and met with MLE at the presidential palace in April to talk economic policy. That does not prove why Teal Micro bought the stock. However, it is quite interesting considering that he just moved to this country and now he's buying up a very key player in it. Okay, next is biggest holding Amazon Amzn. Til Macro disclosed $495,000 shares of Amazon worth roughly $118 million, about 28% of his entire reported portfolio. Now, of course, most people hear Amazon and they think about packages showing up at the door and that's great. My girlfriend orders way too many of those. That's a gigantic business, of course, but it's not the piece that matters here. The piece that matters is Amazon Web Services. Instead of every company building its own room full of expensive computers, Amazon builds enormous computing infrastructure and rents it out. And AI has sent demand for that through the roof. AWS revenue recently grew around 37% and Amazon's AI business is already running at a $25 billion plus annual rate. On top of that, Anthropic has made enormous computing commitments with AWS and OpenAI has entered major infrastructure arrangements involving Amazon. So this demand is contracted rather than just projected. Amazon is also building its own AI chips, which means it keeps margin at the silicon layer instead of handing it all over to Nvidia. Every server rack uses power. Every data center needs power and cooling around the clock. And so when you consider that this is his biggest buy, and you think about all the other stocks that we covered earlier, well, it all starts to make a lot of sense. Amazon creates enormous amounts of computing demand, which needs enormous amounts of electricity. Vistra produces the electricity. AE helps move that electricity. DTE, CMS, and First Energy operate the utilities serving giant new customers needing electricity. X Energy is attempting to create an entirely new generation of nuclear supply. Anyways, what do you think about Teal's latest buys? Let us know down below. And now it's time for our sponsored segment. Today's sponsor is Mayfair Gold, ticker symbol M I N on the NYC American. Mayfair Gold is a development stage gold company based in Toronto. It owns 100% of the Fengib Gold project in the Teamman's region of Northern Ontario. Fengib is a large near surface open pit gold deposit. It sits in the Abatibby greenstone belt along the porcupine dust or fault zone that is the same ground that hosts some of the biggest gold mines Canada has ever built. The company's whole job right now is turning that deposit into a working mine. I'll present the company and why you may want to put it on your radar and begin your due diligence on it. Okay, so gold mining stocks are sitting on the lower end of their historical range. So, let's start with the gold setup. Now, this chart plots gold miners on price to net asset value against free cash flow yield. The NAV data runs from 1985 forward. Across that history, the average sits around 1.44 times NAV with a free cash flow yield near 4.1%. Now, look at where the 2026, 2027, and 2028 estimates land. They cluster down around 0.85 times NAV with free cash flow yields between 7 and 12 and 10%. That is the cheap corner of the chart and very little from the last 40 years sits down there with them. Now, keep in mind these three points are forward estimates, not results. This the 2026 through 2028 dots are what analysts think will happen. If the estimates are wrong, obviously the chart's going to look different. So, keep that in mind. The direction is hard to argue with. Gold equities are priced cheaply against their own history. And it's not because the business is bad. This compares median profit margins across the S&P 500 sectors across the 20 largest precious and base metal miners. Financials and technology both come in at 17%, utilities 15, energy 13, industrials 12, healthcare 11, consumer discretionary and materials 9, consumer staples and communications 7. The mining industry comes in at 31% the highest on the board. So there is a lot of potential in the mining space. On policy, the administration has made domestic mineral production and hard assets a stated national priority. That is directing capital toward the sector. And Wall Street is paying more attention to gold equities than it has in years. And Howard Marx is very in on this sector. If you don't know Howard Marks, Buffett has said that when he sees memos from Howard Marks in his mail, they are the first thing he opens and rates. Now, who is Marks? Well, he co-founded Oak Tree Capital Management in '95 and is co-chairman. Oak Tree is the largest distressed debt investor in the world. And as of June 30th of this year, it managed $227 billion. Brookkefield completed its full acquisition of the firm this year with Markx staying on. His memo series and his book, The Most Important Thing, or standard reading for institutional money managers. And here's why this matters today. You see, Oak Tree filed a schedule 13G with the SEC disclosing 5 a.5 million shares of Mayfair Gold. That is 8.19% of the company. And a million of those shares were bought on August 19th, which is this month. Oak Tree is a credit shop. Direct equity in a pre-production gold mine is not their usual lane. Think about the work an institution like that does before it takes an 8% stake in a company this size and then adds to it. Now, let's talk about why a project like this is scarce. Mines get created by permits, by construction crews, and by about a decade of work before any of that. The big producers have been pulling ounces of gold out of the ground faster than they have been replacing them. Meanwhile, the number of genuinely new gold mines getting built in North America small, permitting is slow. Capital is picking and a lot of projects sit in places where nobody wants to spend half a billion dollars. Mayfair is advancing its flagship project and targeting production before the end of the decade. That would make it one of only a few near-term new producers in North America. Now, Mayfair does not sell anything yet. It does not produce gold. So, it is worth being clear about how a company like this is supposed to create value. A development stage miner moves an asset up a ladder. You start with a resource, then you drill it and publish a study that says what the mine would look like. Then, you get your permits. Then, you make a construction decision. Then, you build. then you produce. Each of these steps takes uncertainty off the table. In mining, people call this the Lande curve. Look at where Mayfair puts itself. They are at the bottom of the trough between feasibility and permitting with what they describe as a catalyst rich schedule over the next 6 to 12 months. Look at the two timelines underneath. The slow path, the one most projects take, spends about 8 years in permitting and financing, hits construction in 2033. Mayfair's plan compresses permitting and financing to two to three years. targets a construction decision in 2028 and the first production in 2030. Fen Gibb sits in the Timmans gold district in northern Ontario right on the porcupine Dester fault. The Timmans region has historically produced more than 100 million ounces of gold. The project has highway access to site the power grid within 10 kilometers and a workforce in Mat and Timonss. Look at the neighbors on this map. Anako Eagle has three mines here. Hisop Hulaway and Halt McWin Mining has Black Fox and Grey Fox. There is the Ross mine. On X's gold Monroe Crosis sits just north. Discoveries porcupine complex is 80 km up the road. This is not a company trying to build a mine in the middle of nowhere. It is building in a camp that has been producing gold for a century. Now, what about the insider buying? Well, HCP Riotta in the director and senior officer group bought 218,000 plus shares at $2.90. That is the single largest purchase on the list. In May, Muddy Waters bought 65,000 shares at $2.21. In June, CFO Kevin Annette picked up 2500 shares at $1.98. Small, but he is the CFO and he is buying rather than selling. Later that month, CEO Drew and Wall bought 68,500 shares at $2.76, his own money in the open market. And in early August, Muddy Waters, who usually tends to be very bearish on a lot of things, came back for another 141,400 shares at prices between $343 and $368 Canadian, which is close to a half a million dollar purchase. So, this is why this is worth the research. You got 35% insider ownership, a CEO buying in the open market, Oak Tree taking an 8% position and adding to it this month. At the same time, Mayfair's management team has built mines already. They came together at Mayfair after a time at Detour Gold, Bareric, and Kirkland Lake Gold, which built and ran some of the most profitable gold assets in the country in the same jurisdiction as Mayfair's project. Now, it's time to talk about the risks. Mayfair Gold is a small company. Small companies move hard in both directions, and they trade thinly compared to a major producer. That cuts both ways, and you need to be comfortable with that. Second, this company does not produce gold yet. It does not have a mine. Every projection you have heard in this segment describes a plan, not an operating business, and plans and mining can slip. This is also a very small cap company. So again, volatility is a big concern. Dilution is a big concern and these are all things that you should consider. Mayfair Gold is a development stage company with one asset that matters. Fen Gibb is a 4.3 million ounce indicated resource in the Timmans district of Northern Ontario with a higher grade million ounce starter reserve near surface, a prefeasibility study behind it, and a provincial permitting track aimed at a 2028 construction decision in 2030 production. The team has built mines in this district before and the two newest hires got a major Ontario project permitted together. The share register is unusually concentrated with 35% insider ownership, more than 20 million Canadian dollars of insider buying since October of 2024. Oak tree holding 8% and a former short seller sitting on the board and still add it. Anyways, I'll put the link below. Make sure to go off and do your own due diligence. This is not financial advice. Have a great rest of your day and we'll see you in the next