I Just Bought $7,200 More of These 4 Stocks

Hey everyone, welcome back to another portfolio update for today. So over the past week, the Couch Investing portfolio went down by 2.71% whereas the S&P was actually up 47% which means that year to date we are still up 35.32% whereas the S&P is up 12.82%. And so in today's video we'll talk about the current state of the potential rate hikes, the upcoming earnings week. We're almost almost at the total end of the earning season. I'll touch on the big US and Venezuela oil deal and how that might impact the market. We'll also talk a little bit about this whole GTA story and what you might be looking for as a potential investment. And then as always, we'll look at some of the stocks that we've been following on a technical analysis basis and see whether or not it's worth buying. I'll first start off with the upcoming earnings week because well we'll keep it short. We have Credo, Dell, Palo Alto Networks, MongoDB and GitLab Thursday after the market closes for this whole AI story. Credo Dell probably the two. Then cyber security Palo Alto already had a rubric and crowd strike last week already covers rubric in Friday's video on Wednesday after the close. The big one here is of course a Broadcom. Then we also have Snowflake, but Broadcom is probably the one that we will all cover and follow because well, it is a huge player in this whole AI story. Did they get maybe a new big client? Are they growing even faster with their big customer base, the big tech companies basically? So, we'll hear more about that Wednesday after the close. Then on Thursday before the open, we have Victoria Secret. It's not really a secret anymore. And then after the close some smaller companies UiPath, Dokusin, Lululemon also have a Zcaler another one here in the cyber security space. So all in all some interesting names but I do think that the best ones are behind us although there still is Oracle and Micron. Moving on to the FOMC meeting which will happen 17 days from right now. Now, if we go all the way to the January meeting, basically this is what the market expects to happen until the first meeting of 2027, which means the market is now pricing in 39.2% chance of two rate cuts in 2026. Now, that's 39.2% right now. A week ago, that's set at 27.5%. A week ago, the current rate was at 22.5%. Now that's only 8.1. Now the upcoming meeting is of course in September. And in September, as you can see, there's still a 43% chance of no rate hike, but there is a 57% chance of one rate hike. Now, it is important because for companies that we do follow and maybe even own such as SoFi, in their guidance, they're of course guiding for one to two rate cuts. We've always talked about okay what if that doesn't happen or what if there is just one rate cut that is positive for that uh business. Now of course if we do have a rate hike one or two it will put pressure on the growth companies the companies that are not that profitable. Now just for the fun of it if we go all the way through mid 2027 the market is expecting us to be around still these two rate hikes. So 32.6% that we're still going to have those two rate hikes by mid 2027. Of course, lower oil prices, lower energy prices could help with that. Now, on Friday, we've got a pretty big deal. We've got a US and Venezuela oil deal. The historic deal gives the US majority control over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves in a 100year joint venture. Now this is the important thing to understand in the short term. Yes, in the short term we might see on Monday prices of oil come down purely because of that headline. Now what will immediately happen is this. Venezuela will transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of already produced sanctioned oil to the United States. This help refill the strategic petroleum reserve which is at a 40year low and provides localized relief. Now, what will take much much longer is of course rebuilding or building the infrastructure and that will require apparently up to a hundred billion dollars in private investments to rebuild pipelines, rigs, and production facilities. So, if you think this is going to be oh 65 billion barrels, okay, we might get them by uh the end of No, it's not going to happen this quickly. Then as we've discussed a long long time ago, basically in January when this whole thing happened in well Venezuela, there is difference here in oil. I'm not an oil expert, but a quick Google search and you become an oil expert. That's how it works today on social media. I don't make the rules. So the oil type in Venezuela, they're heavy and sour crude, which is still useful. It's useful for diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt, which means long-term downward pressure on industrial fuel and transport cost once production capacity is rebuilt. Now, the light and sweet crude, which is the standard US production, this of course is good for commercial petrol and gasoline. So, if you want to see the prices at the pump come down, well, it's going to take some time because we still have, of course, this straight over moose situation going on right now. Every day we hear other headlines, other tweets, other posts, both sides making jokes, making we don't know what the heck's going on there, let's be honest. So, we live and we learn. But jokes and sarcasm aside, this is definitely more positive than negative. Quickly touching on the two outside positions here. My corre January 2028 $60 call. I'm now in the red. I don't really like this call anymore. So, might just sell it and buy shares straight out. As for the PayPal bull spread. Now, PayPal had a big news. PayPal stock crashed. While this position didn't really crash by much, that's purely because it is a bull spread, which means when the stock goes down, I am a little bit protected. But with PayPal, to me, it was quite simple. The reason why I kept it even when the first deal was well the report of a acquisition was announced was one I don't think they would accept it and two if they were to come back with a better deal then yes I would probably sell because the better deal would probably mean closer to $70 or more but right now apparently Stripe and the bank do not want to improve their bid anymore stock went down by 12 13% or so on Friday which means that I still have time until the end of 2028 to see if there is a real turnaround with PayPal's business or not. But the message from the market here was very clear. An outsider does not want to buy your company. We'll put the stock down because we do not really trust the current management. Now, last quarter, yes, they did improve a tiny bit, but the bar has been set quite low. But if they can manage to put another two consecutive quarters of some positive growth, cost cuts, profitability, improvements, then yeah, then maybe the stock will be rewarded and whoever would like to buy the business will have to pay a bit more. I since the start, I thought the first bit was an absolute joke. You would be getting this company way too cheap. So they had to pay a little bit more. Now we are still much higher than where we were before. Stripe put in a bit. So at least there's that. Moving on to some quick technical analysis. We'll start off here with Google Alphabet. So this one is sitting right on the 100 day exponential moving average on the daily. The simple moving average sits at 358. So a little bit higher than that. if it can defend this area right here should be a good sign of us going a little bit higher. Now the other name which is a name that I actually bought a little bit more of. I'll explain in a bit and that's Rocket Lab. Now Rocket Lab is of course under key levels which sits right over the $70 mark right now. I bought a tiny bit because we are in the range where I feel we might see this stock just float around these areas which is around $60 or so for quite a while. And so I was okay with buying a little bit more. I'll show you how much after this. Then we have SoFi. So is still holding up okay right now. Right. The reclaim floor was $17.80. So, at the moment, as long as we stay above $18, we should be okay. Amazon also support area right now sits right under the price that we're at, $265. So, that's completely fine. Yes, it's down around 6% or so since the highs after the earnings report, but that's okay. Meta Meta is still trying to get back to $600. We're not even managing to stay above $580, $585. But as I said in plenty videos, this is an undervalued name and the moment sentiment switches here, we are going to see this stock go higher and higher. But as of right now, it is undervalued. To get a little bit more momentum, we should be getting closer to $600 per share. Another name that you might think has been sitting around these areas for quite a while and that's new holdings around $14.20 or so support area is literally around those prices. But as long as we stay above that $14 mark should be fine. And then yes, last week we were above 15. If we want to get that momentum back, we should get back above 15 and then try to make our way back to $16. As for Netflix, Netflix has been getting a little bit more momentum since we've got that news that Bill Aman bought or reinitiated a position in Netflix. Went from $72 to then 77 and now $80 $81 or so, which is a good area to be at as of right now. If you want to make our way back to $85, $90, I would like to see the stock show some strength around $80, $81 for the next couple of days. As for Nebuse, many of you asked me where should I start buying Nebus or not. Well, first of all, when you see these types of questions, it's it's subjective. It's not objective, it's subjective. I have a huge position in Nebus already, so it's very different for me. Now, when you look at the stock, you might say, "Oh, year to date, it's up so much. I cannot buy it at these levels." But technically speaking, the floor or the support area as of right now sits at around the the prices that we're seeing around $200 around $200. Of course, if we go under $200, then look down uh below well well below. But if we can stay around these prices, $200, $28 for the next couple of days to really try to stabilize, then we can try to go back above $215, $220. If we do drop a little bit under $200, I think for long-term investors should be fine. Reddit. Reddit sits right under the daily exponential moving averages and the simple one which sits at 1676 but above the support shelf of $146. On a pure valuation basis, Reddit is cheap. Okay, I've said it time and time again. Reddit is cheap. The only issues with Reddit is again the market and investors want to see a data licensing deal because if they will keep losing traffic because of Google overview because of AI models answering questions then at least at least get paid for that because if you do not get paid for it and you lose traffic for the long run it is an issue for the short term their average revenue per user is well well below that of a meta. I think Meta is is close to six times higher than Reddit right now. Global average revenue per user. So there still is a lot of upside potential, but here as well there's more maybe sentimentbased pressure. Moving on to Axon. Axon is a name where yeah, maybe I should have bought way more when it was at $400, $500. Doesn't seem like we're going to get back to $500 anytime soon. As of right now, if it stays around $600, that's pretty powerful for uh the stock. It did break the resistance at $590 or so. If it do drop under $600, then that $590 will maybe serve as a rebound area. But yeah, if you wanted to buy this name for cheaper or should I say less expensive, I guess we will have to wait a little bit longer. Marcado Libre, Marcado Libé, without anyone noticing, is almost back at $2,000 per share. Of course, that $2,000 per share now becomes that psychological resistance point. If we do get back under $1,900, the primary deep support area sits literally right under it. $1,888. Yes, I know they should split, so it's a bit cheaper to buy. Lastly, Uber reclaimed the floor, closed above it. We're at $78 per share. That's quite good. a little bit of momentum here. Even with all of the autonomous driving news, Uber stock is trying to uh have a little bit more stability right now. Moving on to the portfolio itself, we don't really have that much change I believe in the rankings. So, Nebus is still the number one, SoFi number two. Then we have AMD, Google, Rocket Lab, Meta number six. Maybe Meta was seven before, but Meta is six right now. Oscar is seven, the local eight still is quite crazy. Still around $15, Palanteer is already number nine, Micron is 10, Uber, Robin Hood, Rubric, New Reddit, Axon, Cash Pile now sits at 2.5%. Netflix and Nvidia. Now, Rubric, as you know, I did take some profits before they reported, right? I explained this right here, which was at $97. So only a couple of dollars above the prices that we're at right now. Why is that? It became quite expensive. Still a good company as I've said on Friday. Still a good company. Beats across the board raised. But that doesn't mean that I could not take some profit. It was quite stretched. I'm very happy with the position. If we do drop even lower, then yes, I'll just buy back my shares again. Now I did buy more shares of new holdings. increase that position by 11.8% at $14.31. Why is that simple? Still want to grow that position. It's an excellent business. I still wanted to grow that position. I did say this might be my last ad right here. Unless, of course, something drastically changes with the business. We drop even lower or the business just becomes better and better. But yeah, it's a very very solid company. And yeah, again fintech, but at least it's non AI semiconductor data center related. As for Rocket Lab, yeah, this is probably my most say controversial buy right now because yes, it is expensive. Not going to lie, it is expensive. But as I said before, and we can actually see this right here. As I said before, I did sell when it was even more expensive. So I sold back here in January at $86.97 100 shares and also sold in May on my birthday actually I sold another 45 shares at $114.50 50 which means I sold 145 shares. Then along the way, yes, I rebought a little bit more. Some of them a little bit higher or at the same price and then more recently under the price that well under the price that I've sold them, especially the most recent one. So I still needed to buy 55 shares to get my full position basically backed. Now with the extra 30 shares, it's only 25. If we go lower, I will accumulate more. It's not a cheap name. It is just less expensive. So why am I doing this? Why am I buying more shares of an expensive name? Well, I just told you that I sold some Rubric because it was getting too expensive. Well, to me, it's quite simple. Rubric more than doubled over the last couple of months. Rocket Lab more than halfed over the last couple of months. Plus, I sold Rocket Lab at higher prices. So, buying much lower to me makes sense because I do want to own again this company for the foreseeable future. And so, if I can have more shares at a cheaper price, so be it. I also think that maybe yes, maybe the recent podcast with Molly O'Shea was one of the reasons why I wanted to buy a little bit more already right now, even if it is too expensive. And yes, maybe also because my average is anyways super low, so it doesn't really change that much for me. And then the last two, well maybe three cuz the one share of Nvidia should not really count, but hey, it's it's become a habit. I buy one share every earnings report or time we cover a big event for Nvidia. Hey, could have been a worse company. All right, still one of the best ones out there. Then I did buy 10 extra shares of Reddit, 11.1% increase at $156. This one is one where I said I'm going to grow that position, but slowly but surely because yeah, if we do not get an AI data licensing deal, it might be an issue. So right now, I think I am quite happy with my exposure in Reddit. Yes, 2.6% of the portfolio, but dollar amount. I think I'm quite happy there. And then, as you know, I had to buy more meta. So, I increased that position by 5.5%, three extra shares at 569. They settled. Overhang is done. And so, yeah, it's now 5.6% of my portfolio, but it is here in this one. Quite a big position. It's basically 30 close to $33,000. I do think that Meta is going to be one of those positions where yes, maybe maybe 18 months from now, we might see the same return as a Google, right? Who knew that a Google could return 116% in what 12 months, 16 months, 18 months or so, a Metam might be the same story. And so, I'll gladly buy more shares of that great company. Last but not least, GTA 6. You've probably seen the trailer. You've probably seen the content on Netflix, which by the way, Netflix is probably going to see or already seeing a huge increase in traffic, which is good for them, but everybody's trying to say, "Oh, the amount of hype and look at this. Everybody's talking about GTA 6 is going to be amazing for Take 2 stock." Well, first of all, this is literally the most anticipated, most hyped game of all time. And if you think that nothing is priced into take 2 right now, then maybe you're not paying attention at all. Second of all, I've been playing GTA since I was a kid. Yeah, I know. Who plays GTA when they're a kid? Are you crazy? Who are your parents? Don't blame my parents. I had a big brother. So, it's completely different. But GTA 6 has been 13 years in the making. The last big trailer that they gave us was three years ago. The difference between the last 3 years and today trailer-wise quality-wise it's been zero. So, what the heck have they been doing? I don't know. Is this going to be a huge success? Yes. Does it look nice? Yes. Do I care about all of the extra things that you can do? You can now play what? Fishing and diving. I couldn't care less. Just let me play the story, use some cheat codes, whatever. Now, if you really want to look at who benefits really the most of this lounge, maybe have a look at Sony because this game, of course, is going to be digital copy only as of right now. This game only comes out on PlayStation and Xbox. So, yeah, maybe you could look at Microsoft, but Sony gets a bigger impact. So only these two right now, Sony and Microsoft or Xbox of course take 30% cut of a transaction. If you buy the game on PlayStation, 30% goes to Sony. Guess what? Sony didn't have any expenses to create this game. Much better for them. Second of all, people might be buying a new console for this advantage. Sony. Third, when online comes out 12 months, 18 months down the line, I don't know. Guess what you need to do? You need to buy an online pass on PlayStation store. Advantage Sony again. And so if you really want to play this whole, oh, GTA 6 comes out. How can I make money from it? Yeah, maybe the most obvious one is to say, oh, take two, right? Cuz it's the easiest one. They make the game. But if you dig slightly deeper, you might find that maybe Sony is going to be a bigger winner. Oh, I'm not even going to talk about the indirect effects, right? If suddenly more people buy a console, they might be buying other games on that console. Also, if there won't be any physical copies of games anymore by I think 2028 or so, which yes is a shame, is a loser move. But for Sony, for PlayStation, well, that means that costs are going to come down. You just have to buy a digital game, which also means that for the next PS console, guess what? They don't have to include one with a disc cost them less to make. Now, will I be buying Sony stock because of this? No. Will I be buying the game? Probably yes. So, whoever owns Sony, you're welcome. And so, that's about it for me in today's episode. Hope you all have a wonderful weekend still and see each other in the next one. Bye-bye.