Brian Shannon on TraderTV 9/1/26

and Brian Shannon of course of Alpha Trends. Um this man is such an amazing guest for us comes through talks about anything we ask. So Brian, how are you doing on this lovely Tuesday? >> I'm doing well here. We've got uh we've got a nice downtrend and I think we're going to see it for a little bit here. We we need to build some fear and I think it's going to take a couple days. I would not be buying this dip. >> No. Do you ever look at that fear index? Sometimes we see and it's probably today maybe it's overextended. I I really, you know, it it it starts to prop up. I I think on Twitter, people start mentioning it when it's like, you know, 25 and then 24, then it, you know, they start acting like it means something. Then it goes down to 12 and then they say, "Well, that's got to be the bottom, then it goes to eight." So, it's not really I mean, it's a good sentiment indicator, but it's definitely not a timing tool. It's good to know when we get to those oversold levels, but uh I don't think we're probably anywhere near that. I haven't looked. >> Yeah. You know what, Brian? Um, even even right here today, we started with our short takes uh on the note of uh today and it was like overall feel short bias. We had short short short everything was short written down here today. So, I'm glad that we're sort of on the same page right now. We've done >> Yeah. Yeah. We we we've done pretty good today uh running that and right now we're shorting to SpaceX uh right here. Brian, let's go over some SpaceX if you don't mind because we've been into like a little bit of a consolidation phase right now in SpaceX. We are holding above the 50 period moving average now that we have 50 days uh to go on. I don't know if this is even accurate. I should actually look at E signal, but um right there, we're going to wait to see if it does wind up holding this 130. It looks like a good bottom and 150 looks like a good top. So, I think you're going to tell me maybe do nothing right now because it's kind of in the middle, but I want to be bullish on SpaceX. I do think that, you know, there is going to be a time where this starts to run again, especially with all the Tesla news and the tieup and whatnot. Is there a price we should be looking at? Where does the anchor lie maybe from IPO? And how do you look at these things, especially with it being a relatively new name to the market? Yeah, the anchor from the IPO of course is the first thing I look at on something this fresh and you can see that we have found supply there twice perfectly two days uh about three weeks ago and both of those times we hit it we were rejected. Now we do have we are above a 50-day moving average. However, the 50-day moving average is declining. So I don't trust this rally. I kind of like your short bias based on that but I also don't like the short bias based on the fact that we're making higher highs and higher lows above a rising 5day moving average. So for me I look at it and say why bother with the stock? And you know, if you're day trading, that's a different story. But, uh, from a swing trader perspective, I see just kind of no man's land. That anchor is at the prior support, which has been resistance. What I think is likely to happen is, you know, it breaks beyond here and then it's likely, I think, to fail. You've still got all those things, you know, lockups still expiring, overvalued, all that story. Everyone knows the story. Um, so I think you're going to see a breakout that traps people and then it comes down to the anchor off the low and we'll see what happens from there. But no position, so really don't care. >> Do you do you trade? Yeah, I I I sort of started that question. I was like, I'm pretty sure he was going to tell me that this is nothing right now. Um, but as far as like right now, we're in the SpaceX trade. It's 70 cents in the money. It was only risking 11 cents, so five or six to one. Obviously, we got out way too much. We were talking about that as that was happening because it didn't look like much was going on. But when you trade intraday, and I don't know what percentage of your trades are actually intraday trades, I know, very technically based, and if it breaks, it breaks. If it doesn't, it doesn't. But do you ever look at risk-to-reward? Is there um a common risk-to-reward ratio that you look for? I know some traders are at 3:1, some traders are 2 to1. Does that ever come in or are you just simply I'm trading what the lines tell me and whatever the risk is the risk is. How does you know Brian deal with and I'm just talking about intraday you know is there any sort of a mode that you follow for intraday trading as far as riskreward ratios are concerned. >> Sure. I want to know always where have we come from where do we have the potential to go how far have we gone um looking at the spy for instance I I did take a long trade on this bounce over here and then I'm still short some from over here. So, um, that I covered most of it and actually I covered a lot of it right here and sold back a little bit right here, but I I still have a core position short the SPY and the semiconductors as well. Um, because these the semis are the weakest. So, I look at this and I say, you know, do I have a price target? Yeah, it's lower, but I want to manage risk. And for a day trade, if I see it, you know, making the lower highs and lower lows, I'm going to stick with it. And if at the end of the day it still hasn't broken that pattern, I will cover some of it and then look to the bigger time frame and say does it look like it still has potential for further weakness here and decide whether I want to hold some or not. And when I look at the bigger picture, my answer is absolutely yes. I want to hold some of this overnight. We're I think heading down towards the anchor from the year-to- date anch uh I'm sorry from the year-to- date anchor. We've broken below the anchor from the year-to- date low right here. That's that blue line. And we're below declining 5day moving average. We saw a rally up this morning that failed. So to me it looks inevitable that we come down to about 510 in these semiconductors. Doesn't mean straight down although when you have a short position you know that's the preferred way to do it but uh as I like to quote Linda Rashki on all the time is markets will do the obvious thing in the least obvious way. So getting down there I think is highly likely but it's going to be a lot of fakes back and forth before it does it unless maybe we get lucky and it just gaps down to that level. But you know you got to look at probabilities uh you know uh not possibilities. >> Yeah. Per perfectly said, probabilities not possibilities and that's what trading is all about. So two two questions for you. The first one just an extension of socks. I wonder if you could maybe do uh some work on maybe DRAM the ETF just because the memory the memory names had been moving around quite a bit and offer a lot of volatility. Sandis was a huge uh move at the close yesterday and it's been bouncing around. You're down three and a half points today. We just lost the 50 period like a lot of the structure looks like it's falling. So that' be the first thing. What do you see there? Do you see it as weaker than socks? I feel at times it seems like it could be. Um but the second >> I think it's yeah >> yeah I'll save the second question but like start with DM >> I think it's holding up a little bit better than the SMH um you know this is the anchor from you know what would be year to date but we don't have a full year so since basically it's IPO um we're below declining 50-day moving average that's that dash blue line and we're just breaking the 20-day moving average this is the anchor from the Leupold low right here that blue line so when we look at that versus where it is on the SMH we're breaking below the anchor from the uh leopold low on the SMH And we've got a declining 20 below a declining 50. Structurally, it's just clearer to me that SMH uh is weaker here. And you know that when you look at like, well, Micron is basically here in a range really. It's it's it's tight, but it's not doing anything. Just because it's tight doesn't mean it, you know, if it if if we lose Micron, you know, back below probably this level, then we've got bigger problems for the for the DRAM, of course, obviously, for the semis, for the NASDAQ, for the entire market, I think. So, um, this one I think you got to keep a close eye on. It keeps baking people out long and short, but with a declining 50-day moving average, which will continue to decline for at least the next week and a half unless we break above this level. So, these are the last seven days that we'll get these will be averaged out in the next seven days. So, that means that 50-day moving average will continue to decline and then the 20-day moving average will start to decline here shortly as well. So, um I think DRAM is more neutral but in danger of breaking down. >> Okay. So yeah, not yet. But in danger breaking down gives an opportunity for day traders because we like the fact that we can take some of those breaks. So the second thing I wanted to ask you is okay, if we're feeling that things are still bearish and obviously we're pulling back off the highs, is there anything and the answer obviously is there something out there in this pullback that is starting to get to interesting dip levels for you where you'd say like if everybody's always looking for longs. I shouldn't say everybody a lot of time people are looking for long opportunities when the market starts to pull back. Is there anything pulling into interesting levels or that maybe you've put on or that you you're eyeballing for a bounce um or just a continuation because it's been strong? >> Well, I think that you know if you look at gold for instance and you look at um I'm just going to share the uh Trading View screen here for a moment. Um this is by the way before I do that here's the S&P 500 with the anchor from the Leopold low and you can see that and the NASDAQ we're breaking those currently whereas the semis have already broken. Biotechs are hanging out a little bit better. But let's talk about Bitcoin for a moment because I've been looking for a move down to the anchor off the beginning of this move and that seems imminent. So, you know, I wouldn't say short it here because we've just dropped from 79 to 76 and a half. Maybe we get one more little bounce in here. I've been shorting this one today as well with ESBIT. Um, but that seems headed down towards this level. And then you look at um where is that chart? So, let me bring this down. This is gold. And let me just clean it up a little bit. So, on the left is the daily time frame. Gold came into the orange year-to- date anchor and the anchor off the all-time high. Um, I had posted, you know, look for the potential of supply in this zone and it failed nicely from there. Yesterday, it came down to the anchor from this low right here, which is the Leupold low. And, you know, it it bounced slightly and the number of people that were calling that the bottom because it was also the 20-day moving average. And I drew this that we had prior support in here that acted as resistance. They thought it was going to be support again. We're still below declining fiveday moving average. I think you're going to see a test of the year-to- date anchor in here, uh, near 4,300 in gold. And then if it can settle down in that area, that might become a bounce candidate. But when we look at, you know, the SPY and you look at the cues and where they have the potential to drop down to, I don't think we're in a get ready to buy things hurry basically. >> Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. kind of like a get the shopping list out or at least start looking at some names that are interesting, but let the short uh sort of play out as it as it stands. But you you mentioned you mentioned the biotech names that are holding up a little bit well. Um X. So would you I mean that there hasn't really broken the floor. So would that would there be an argument that especially given if tech is going to be weak and the chips are going to be weak, wouldn't there be at least a subtle argument that that could be a bit of a buy opportunity because you're not in the sector of the markets that are the weakest and it's something that has the ability to go counter trend. No. >> Yeah. So, biotech actually, you're right, that, you know, they came down to this little breakout area, which is also the location of that red 20-day moving average, and the anchor, this is the Leopold low, but we could also put an anchor off of their low, which was right here. And you can see we're stabilizing around that. Let me just change that color so it's a little bit easier to see. So, that's the anchor off of the biotech low at the beginning of the month. And the the issue is here that we have a declining 5day moving average. So, as I always point out in this type of situation, what I'll be looking for in these biotechs is for maybe a rally up to the five. They even slightly through it, get people excited, then it comes back down, does something like this, and then tomorrow and then uh tomorrow's t Wednesday, Thursday. So, by Friday, so we could say this could be tomorrow, this could be Thursday. By Friday, we would be above a flat to rising 5day moving average by the end of the day. So, these might be setting up for Friday to early next week, the way I look at them. And it's good to see that mRNA is recovering in here as well. mRNA of course is the the one that you know had that big move uh based on their you know cancer trial. And if they start to do this I think mRNA will be the one to keep a close eye on. The interesting thing is most of the genomic stocks and you know we can look at them here. You know BNTX failed miserably. Crisp down Nutra that's uh Burken Miller's big one. These are all below the declining fiveday moving average. But mRNA continues to be, you know, the the the standout here and that's the one that had the news. So if if if Madna continues to hold up well and kind of digest these gains for a day or two, then I think by Friday or Monday, biotechs are the are the one to go. Yeah, I love that look and thank you because I I think that's that's always something people are looking for like where do you go um to long but it's worth keeping in mind that anchor we were talking about the 130 and the thing about a short squeeze is if that if if that kind of a support doesn't break I promise you there were new shorts that got into that thing that were praying that it was going to break that support and now that it hasn't every single day they're probably a little bit more uh nervous. I'm glad you pointed it out and again I'm not cheering for any what what we always cheer for stocks to go up but more than more than down. So I guess I am kind of halfway cheering for the shorts to get burned there. Just just one last >> cheering for whatever my position is and whoever's on the other side I want them to get burned badly. >> Well, that's sort of the thing. It's that's how the game that's how the game is played. But just out of curiosity as a technical as a technical trader, do you ever break ties with something like that? like that short float that it still has, is that something that gets you a little bit more excited in a MADNA over whatever perfect chart setup or similar chart setups, I should say, two identical chart setups. Is that a tiebreaker for you? >> Yeah, absolutely. I mean, short interest is a technical indication. It's got nothing to do with fundamentals of the stock. It's about supply and demand. And here's a future source of demand. What it's going to take for them to cover is either higher prices or maybe they squash the stock somehow. But I, you know, I I was I said to my wife the other day, which I don't really talk to her about this stuff much. They said, "I've got this feeling." I said, "And I, you know, when I trade on my gut, I'm just awful. I can't do it. That's why I look at at technicals." I said, "But I I really think the semiconductors are about to fall apart, and I really don't know how to position myself. The options are so damn expensive that I wanted to buy puts." And I've been basically day trading the semi on the short side. um and and trying to hold some for a little bit longer. But it it ju it's so tough to reconcile it uh for me, Neil, because when I look at my results based on anything other than strict risk management based around the technicals, they just aren't that good. I I don't my gut isn't, you know, I don't my my elbow doesn't, you know, twitch when it's about to rain and I I just don't have those gut feelings that really pay off well for me. >> Well, I don't know. My elbow does when it's I got the tenonitis in the elbow, so mine does feel a little bit bad when it's starting to rain. That's not necessarily a good thing. But no, stick to the technicals and just I know I love having you on. Just one point of clarity. When you look at short float, are you more concerned with the net short float like what the percentages or like the days to cover? Because that's one thing I know sometimes that's a little bit better of an indicator at times of how how good a squeeze can a stock could be. >> Yeah, days to cover is definitely more important um because it tells you how difficult a time are they going to have getting out of it. they really have to get out of this thing and start buying or margin clerks start buying for them, it's going to be a very difficult way to get it done. I mean, we had the opposite of a long a short squeeze. We had a long squeeze with Leopold, right? I mean, that's what happened to him. He was long, he got squeezed and the margin clerks did a a terrible job selling for him. It was very sloppy. And now when we look at, you know, the the days to cover short, you know, short, also known as short interest ratio, I like to see at least five. So, it would take at least five days of average daily volume. here on Madna. Now, the average daily volume has gone up tremendously the last uh you know, two weeks. Right now, the 20-day average is 31 million shares. Uh I don't know the number of shares, but I know that they're, you know, the other thing is they're they're just you they're out out, you know, 100% or or more, right, at this point. >> They're so they're so out of the money it's and it's getting worse and worse. And good luck to anybody that um is is brave enough to actually short the stock and more than a day trade that you're in for a couple of minutes or second. But uh Brian, as always, it's always a pleasure having you on here. But at the very beginning, Sean was asking something about we were having conversation about food and he said, "Is Brian into into hot dogs?" And I under my breath said, "I bet you he prefers hamburgers to hot dogs." So >> I think everybody who doesn't, right? Maybe Brian does. >> Maybe settle it for us. >> I thought maybe vegetarian Brian. >> Hamburgers. Yeah. No, no vegetarian at all. I I am a carnivore to the max. I >> need I need, you know, 80 grams a day or more. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> I can picture you on the grill, brother. >> Grab that protein and not tofu style. I do. Not only is is this man an absolutely great uh follow, but I'm going to tell you about this book that you all got to get. This is Maximum Trading Gains with anchored VWAP. This is Brian Shannon from Alpha Trends. But not only are you a great follow on X and Andre, you're ready to show my screen over here because you sent this to me last week and you had talked about it here. I mean, your trip to Alaska was probably an unbelievable one. These little uh cubs there. Look at the paws on this. Go find Brian. It's just like the fact that you got, you know, this close that close. >> Yeah. Like look at this. And then there's even this one you mentioned here. Feel sorry for my fish guy down there, but um what a great follow you are, Brian. And you know, thanks for sharing some of those vacation pictures with us. You know what a trip that was. I mean, I know we talked about that. It was uh before, but those bears quite quite amazing, I'd imagine. >> Unbelievable being in the water with them, having them 20 yards away. I mean, super crazy close. But, you know, like I said, they they just don't care about you. They've got so much fish in the water that they're eating and and they just look like, "Get out of my way." And of course you do. >> Amazing. Well, than me. >> Yeah. Brian, I hope everyone goes and gives you a great follow at Alpha Trends. All your details there are at the bottom. Uh now that summer's sort of wrapped up here and we start into the month of September. Give me a a quick prediction. Are we going to have an up month in September? Generally speaking, September known to be a negative month. Uh if you could make a call, I'm going to say you maybe think week because of your semi call there with semiconductors. >> I think at least the first two weeks are probably negative and then you ask me in two weeks again or we can do it again next Tuesday. >> Well, we'll mark it down and we'll keep asking you every week because we do have a big reports coming. We have Dell and Broadcom all this week as well. So that should, you know, give us a little bit more of an indication of what the sector looks like. So that's Brian Shannon, our good friend. I think you've been here forever and I actually told a story about how you and I and all of us sort of went back and we looked at that anchored view of Intel that was 30 or 40 years and I know that you and I all of us had a good laugh uh back in the day as well. So always providing the best information. It's Brian Channon and we'll do it again next week. >> All right, sounds good. Thanks everybody. Thanks, Ryan.