BMNR Is About to Own 5% of Ethereum… Then What?

BMNR is supposed to be a leveraged way to own Ethereum, but the stock and Ethereum don't always move together. So, in this week's video, I'm breaking down how BMNR has performed comparatively to Ethereum, what has to happen to its valuation in MNAV, and the biggest long-term question that investors need to consider. What exactly does Bitmain become whenever it already owns 5% of the entire Ethereum supply? They are above one times MNAV here, which is one of the big reasons for why I'm getting excited again, but they put out this update yesterday, August 31st, saying that they've reached 5.9 million tokens, and their holdings are back above 15.6 billion, which is nearing some of their all-time highs. The initial goal whenever starting this treasury was 5% of ETH's supply. They wanted to get to that. That current number right now is about 6,034,000 Ethereum, which is what 5% would come out on today's supply. As of taking this screenshot, Ethereum was up 32.95% over the last month, while BMNR has been up 46.2%. As of the last screenshot that we took a week ago, Ethereum has actually climbed up ever so slightly on the month, where BMNR has come ever so slightly down. They're at like 48%. Now, they're still I mean, they're up 46%, but regardless. The last times that we've seen this appreciation, as I've shown previously, have sort of held flat for a bit. Now, there's been periods where it has drawn down a bit. So, these small drawdowns, where like even today, we're down 1.4% on Ethereum, are not indications that we are destined to lose this rally. Last time we were up 30% in a week, held for 2 months before exploding much higher. And as you can see, the price of Ethereum versus Bitcoin has been staying quite strong over the last little bit. So, you're actually seeing more of a rally into Ethereum than you are into Bitcoin. Ethereum up roughly 32% over the last month, Bitcoin up 25.25%, which did grow a little bit faster than Ethereum over the last week or so, but not necessarily in the investor interest through ETFs, which is where a lot of retail investors will invest. BMNRs Ethereum holdings took a big climb up 5.9 million outstanding tokens, which actually increased in their overall buys. They bought 53,000 total Ethereum last week. They are only 133,000 Ethereum left, which at this pace that they're doing sort of 30 to 50,000 could be maybe done in 2 weeks if we re-accelerate those purchases or about 3 weeks if we stay on pace to where we are today. They are 4.89% of the entire Ethereum supply being held by one institution, Bitmain Technologies. A lot of this, in order to gain this amount of money to buy this much Ethereum, they had to raise an additional 367 million dollars, and none of that went into buybacks because we are back above 1 times MNAV. So, although we have done a lot of buybacks previously, that has stayed flat for the last couple of weeks, but yet cash position is returning back into a healthy state. We got as low as about 74 million. It's starting to climb back up now, back up to 541 million dollars, which might be good enough in terms of the outstanding amount of cash that's in Bitmain to buy the rest of the supply. Now, in order to raise this amount of money in terms of the cash that we're generating and the amount of ETH that we added, 53,000 more ETH, outstanding shares are going back up. You see this little dip here for a while. That was during their buyback phase. We're done with that right now as MNAV has appreciated back above 1%. Now, another way for them to make money and not have to dip into just going into selling shares and raising would be through staking. They're continuing to stake the same amount roughly a little over 5 million outstanding ETH, which represents about 86% of their outstanding holdings and generating based on the prices of this screenshot 374 million dollars of Ethereum. Generated in Ethereum, but obviously if they wanted to sell that, they could. But this is essentially the cheat sheet that I'm looking at to follow this company. Right now the market cap's roughly 15.5 billion dollars, but the overall amount of holdings that we have in this company is 15.37. For the longest time their holdings have been higher than where the actual market cap was set by investors. So on the new amount of outstanding shares and on the price of this overall stock and the amount of ETH that they hold and including things like Aiko holdings and Bitcoin and Mr. Beast Industries and all of these different investments that they've made, they're actually back above one times MNAV, which is a really, really good place for you to be. It means that it's appreciating faster than a just a solo Ethereum holding would do. This is a really big question. What happens after we hit 5%? I alluded to it a little bit earlier, but just like what Aiko holdings did, they could potentially look to get into new investments. Potentially even investing more into Aiko holdings. Now that stock has dropped ever since because they've been making multiple bets on things like Worldcoin that has not done so well and OpenAI, which of course the valuations in private markets, but whenever you have a ticker like Orbs in public markets, that public perception dictates where those positions go in real time. And for the longest time and even after we saw the OpenAI Q2 report that we ended up seeing, this position and many of the OpenAI proxies ended up selling off. Could BMNR be a direct investor in companies like OpenAI for which Tom Lee is quite positive of those businesses. Maybe Anthropic, maybe completely other different either private or public businesses, maybe ones that also have income-generating purposes. That's the only thing where I find could they go and invest in Bitcoin? Yeah, I mean, maybe. They've done it in the past. But, it's not really income-generative. And I believe that Tom Lee really likes that strategy because then it separates the treasury as a different type of investment than just a way to sort of keep the value of your money. It's almost like gold or Bitcoin or some of these things. That's not really why I'm investing in BM and R. I want these assets to appreciate. So, honestly, they could be investing in other assets, whether that's Solana, whether that's continuing to invest in Ethereum. Tom Lee has also suggested that they can get as high as 10% of the outstanding supply without affecting the security. So, we could continue to see them just invest back into Ethereum or take on other potential investments like their Mr. Beast bet. Now, speaking of other investments over the last week, we've also seen quite the inflow. The highest inflow that we've seen in crypto since October of 2025 for ETF funds. And weirdly enough, well, we have seen a string of just very, very successful ETF net inflows into Ethereum and Bitcoin over the most recent day that this was taken, which was August 27th, Bitcoin actually decreased while Ethereum still stayed green. So, that's 10 consecutive positive days of ETF inflows specifically for Ethereum. Now, Bitcoin still doing very well, and a lot of these ads would make up for the drop that we saw lately, but Ethereum is currently clutching at that win right now. And we do have the Clarity Act potentially passing on September 15th. That's the big bet right now is whether or not that's actually going to go through. The Clarity Act, as Coin Bureau ended up highlighting, is just a few days away. It's now September 1st, so we're 15 days away from that decision. Previously, the house had actually passed this 294 to 134 back in July of 2025 with 78 Democrats voting yes. Then as it's gotten passed down, it's not that the votes have ended up going sideways, it's just that this final vote is being delayed. So, if senators end up returning back and voting, we need 60 votes in order to get this passed. If it doesn't go through, it's going to be a really, really long time before they can end up bringing up this issue once again. So, this is going to be either a really nice rally potentially for crypto or a good reason to sell off some of those positions if this ends up getting delayed once again cuz that delay is going to last a long time. But that should end up clearing up some gray area for some of the institutions and other investors that have been wanting to play in the crypto space or building things on crypto that they don't have the complete green light and maybe some of that Clarity Act would give you clarity about what you can do in the crypto space. So, if that's the case, treasuries of the underlying asset would appreciate over time as well. Anyway, that's my update.