Watch this Big Tech AI Stock Sitting on Support

All right, today I'm going to cover the overall market and I'm going to give you some spy analysis. I'm going to talk about a big tech stock and a swing trade that's getting ready to trigger. It's pretty important for the AI story and I'm gonna cover some other hot stocks and important news. Welcome to Wall Street. This is the Stocks with Josh show. Thank you for taking a minute. Hit the like, hit the subscribe if you're trying to get 1% better on the charts to take measured consistent risk on Wall Street and not lose all your money. That's what I try to do is teach some charting in this channel. Let's talk a little bit about some things the Fed has been saying. And this Fed story is the biggest story for this month come the 15th when we get a new Fed rate decision. But right now, the market's sitting back and listening carefully to what might be said or whispered by the various Feds between now and then. One of the things that he has said is the rates are in a good place to address the problems ahead. The labor market is solid. And that's the number one indicator that he's going to be watching is he's got a dual mandate to make sure that the labor market remains solid and that inflation doesn't rage out of control. Inflation isn't too bad. It's elevated and that's why he's got to keep rates higher for longer. But that brings into focus this Friday we're going to get the new jobs report and the market will absolutely respond to it. Now they've also said that the data that they've been looking at is encouraging and that data is the jobs report that's coming out this Friday. So that'll be a big day for the markets. Now, before I get into the spy analysis, I just have to shout out the stocks with Josh Discord live trading session that we had today. It was a lot of fun. We made a lot of money. We caught the hot stocks for the day, which were Nvidia and Meta to the upside, and there was folks in there making a ton of money. Let me know if you were able to participate in that. And if you weren't, then come check out my website, which is the same name as my show www.stocksswithjosh.com and get in there and trade alongside me or one of my crown traders this week. Okay, let's first kick things off with talking about the spy. Let me jump into that chart right now. Okay, the last time I talked about the spy, I highlighted the RSI and that the bulls really weren't able to push this market higher until it got above 60%. Now, we're looking at the daily chart and we got rejected right there and we've come down. Now, I also mentioned at that time that we were in a large ascending channel and that we had recently found support on the middle of that channel and it allowed us to make another move or another attempt higher which did fail. And I said at that time that as long as we were in the top half of the channel that the bulls were in charge. Well, we fell into the bottom half and today, even though it was a green candle, we printed it in that bottom half, which means that we are in bare territory and that there is even more danger of a continued move to the downside. And if you stop and look at the candles, even though we're doing quite well, we are stairstepping down. And so, even if we consolidate for a few more days, we may be heading back towards this 753, which has been a long-term target on my chart ever since we made a brand new high right under 783. So 753 is an area where I'm expecting some sort of a bounce. So just taking a step back and reconsidering everything I've said, some of the fading momentum, the loss of structure being in the bottom half of this channel, all of those things taken into consideration, I would say that if we do not get back into the top half of this channel tomorrow, then I'm expecting that we're going to continue to fade and move back all the way to this 753. So today, even though we had a green day, we ultimately failed to get back into the top half of that channel. And if we're not in there tomorrow, I'm expecting a flush. All right, I've got to talk about AVGO, a big part of the AI story. That's Broadcom. And this video will be out while their earnings is unfolding. And I'm going to tell you how to read their charts and how to read the results of earnings. So regarding Broadcom, tonight, Wall Street wants more than a standard beat. It's all about strong forward AI guidance. Wall Street already knows that the advertising numbers are roughly going to come in at 29 billion in revenue and 16 billion from AI chips. The real test is what is revealed inside the conference call. The question is, can Broadcom prove its 100 billion AI vision is a real deal. Is Google discreetly shifting some of the future chip design and supply contracts away from Broadcom and toward rivals such as Marvel? Can Broadcom secure enough supply without destroying margins? And is VMware becoming a cash machine or losing customers? The whisper on Wall Street is not about this quarter, but what management promises next? If CEO Hawk Tan raises the forward outlook, then the algorithms are going to go wild. If he simply repeats the old targets, Broadcom could beat earnings and still get crushed. That's today's uncomfortable truth. On Wall Street, excellent results can be bearish when expectations are even bigger. Forget the headline, earnings per share. I want you guys to watch the AI orders, customer concentration, margins, and guidance. That's going to be where the real story unfolds. Now, let's take a minute and go into those charts here on the daily time frame. This yellow line marks the 200 day moving average, which is an incredible springboard for a potential move higher. Basically, this has pulled back significantly and has been postured in the hands of the bears. and if they've been holding too long and there is some positive news coming out tonight. There's a ton of room for this thing to trigger and go higher. Now, the important price points on the chart are the 20-day moving average at 378 and the 50-day moving average at 385. Now, a move to 385 would fulfill this bullish inverse head and shoulders on the smaller time frame, but that would be just the beginning of the move. There's a potential for a move all the way back up to 410. There is a large range that this is within and we are sitting at the bottom of the range. Which means that if these guys do a good job, this can move very quickly with a massive green candle pushing us back up towards the top of the range. Now, that all sounds a little exciting, but I want to remind you it hasn't happened yet. This video will be out while earnings is unfolding, and we will be getting at that time the good or bad news. Now, let's talk about the bearish outlook. If we lose this 200 day moving average, which is right around 364, we've got a pivot low here at 356. And if we lose that pivot low, we have the potential to come all the way back to the nearest significant structure all the way down here at 336. And I want to comment on that because I actually think Broadcom is a great investment and if they had a bad earnings event and we were to get anywhere near this zone, I would be interested in going long in my investment portfolio and potentially selling puts beneath 336 could fund a good long-term investment. So either way, I kind of want to keep eyes on AVGO if it were to break down. I think this is the ultimate buy zone between 356 and 336. And it wouldn't shock me if they did deliver some good news. And if they did that, well, then you've got the targets ahead. And I want to remind you that it's really not a bullish story until it can get back above 410. That would mean that it would be to go back on a long-term uptrend. Until it gets above 410 or 412, this is a rangebound story. What do you guys think of Broadcom? It's sitting on support. It's neutral to bearish. It's a significant player in the AI story and it could be setting up for a potential powerful long-term investment. Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Hit that like and subscribe and I will see you again in tomorrow's video. Peace and blessings, my friends.