Global Markets Are Selling Off… What You Need To Know

Happy Wednesday. What's going on guys? It's Ricky with TechBud Solutions. Hope that you guys are all having a great start to your morning. Markets are set to open in 3 hours and 15 minutes for people back in the United States. As of right now, it's 12:18 p.m. here in Italy. Today I do have a wedding, so I'm not going to be able to update you guys a little bit later today, but wanted to provide you guys with a quick little update of what we know so far. So, on the 5-minute time frame, you could see that direction is still incredibly bearish. Lower highs, lower lows. We surpassed yesterday's lows, but I want to remind you right when markets opened, they sold off, they bottomed, and then they began to recover. Then, it formed an overbought reversal and got rejected. So, again, the big moves were the sell-off, the recovery, and the sell-off once again. Other than that, markets from open to close were relatively kind of flat. The same thing is kind of happening as of right now. QQQ is down half of a percent. This is a great reminder for beginners that always feel the need to take a trade right at market open. Just like we talked about it yesterday in our live trading session with our LPP team. A reminder to stay patient, really allow the market to identify its direction for the day, and to not be afraid to stay cash for a true opportunity to present itself. For me, I love trading either extremely oversold or overbought reversals. It makes it easier. It's still not easy, but makes it easier for me to determine, "Okay, now if it does recover, there's decent upside. And now if it doesn't, you know, push up enough that if it becomes overbought RSI MACD whatever indicator you like to look at, then we wait for price action to follow, and now there's decent downside. You wait for enough opportunity to present itself to take action when it makes sense, not just because you want to. Again, I do do I do normally go live every day at market open when I'm not traveling. If you ever want to join us, it's the second link in the description down below, and it's a one-time payment for lifetime access. So, although for this week, while I'm traveling, I'm not going live, you can always tune on in every day moving forward, and you can take advantage of the current sale we have going on. With that being said, there's a few things that I quickly want to touch on. Over $500 has been wiped from the Asian markets. Here's why. Asian markets are falling. US and Iran conflict escalates with both sides launching attack. We also did just receive an update that now supposedly Trump wants to hold back on further attacks. In my opinion, and that's all it is, is Trump cannot afford more uncertainty. Bond yields are screaming. The likelihood for an a rate hike in the next meeting is incredibly high. He literally cannot afford it. I know he wants to, and that's normally his temperament, but he cannot afford it. There's too much uncertainty unfolding. I think it would cause more harm than good. With that being said, it seems like he's going to call off the retaliation attack to Iran, and we'll see how things continue to develop. Oil surges above $90 as supply distribution risk grow, and global bond markets are selling off sharply with the 10-year yield treasury rising to nearly 4.8%, and Japan's 10-year yield nearly hitting 3%. Treasury Secretary Bestnet has already stated that Japan needs to start possibly raising interest rates, right? Um and what that might look like. So, um as it looks like Japan's rate hike odds have now jumped to 97% adding pressure to the Japanese tech market. Remember, when they do raise rates, it's going to slow down their economy and it's going to increase the cost of what it takes for businesses, for their people, and their government with the money that they borrow. The thing that I want to remind you is Japan is one of the largest foreign holders in US treasuries, and there's the carry trade risk. I would encourage if you don't understand what that is, look into it. It unfolded August of 2024. And it was again when the Federal Reserve had to step in, raise rates, and there's a quick shift in the carry trade because of how they were able to hedge the dollar, the Japanese dollar against the US dollar. So, we'll see how things continue to develop. Trump says, "I could care less about Iran. I like our position on the Strait. When the Iranian When will the Iranian people stand up and fight?" I think now he's just trying to create disruption inside of Iran because he knows he's not going to retaliate because, again, markets cannot afford it. It's very simple. If he didn't care about the Strait, he wouldn't be in such a terrible position to figure out a solution for our current oil reserves, which are at like nearly 40-year lows, right? It's obviously having negative implications into our markets, not just the stock market, but now the bond market and the oil markets. Inflation is beginning to rise, and the average American is feeling the pressure. So, that is where we are so far. And like we said, the likelihood for a rate hike in the next 2 weeks, again, you guys should all have access to the Fed rate monitor tool. This is something that gives you the probability of if the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates or to cut interest rates. And as you can see, in 2 weeks, September 16th, that's when the Federal Reserve is supposed to meet, 68.1% probability that the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates. This will make it more expensive for people like you and I, for businesses, and for the government to borrow money. Remember, Trump has been begging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. A lot of people have it confused. They're like, "Well, Trump put Kevin Warsh into power. Kevin Warsh is never going to raise interest rates." I don't think you understand how the FOMC committee works. It's a committee. It's not just Kevin Warsh. He's just one of the many votes. And if enough people vote to raise interest rates, Kevin Warsh's vote is insignificant. And I think this is the important thing to remember is that he is just one of many members that is part of the Federal Reserve committee. So again, important to understand what you're talking about before just making claims that you don't understand. Japan's 10-year yield is something for the history books. This is definitely not normal. Uh and if you zoom out, this is looking back to the past 15 uh to 20 years on how their yields are at one of the highest levels in the past 15 to 20 years, which is going to make it incredibly expensive for their businesses and their people to borrow money, therefore slowing down their economy. This is happening globally. Yet, markets in the United States are still trying to trade nearly at all-time highs. So as of right now, just like we talked about it yesterday, Nasdaq has a common support range right around 700. We have not broken below that support. I'm here to wait for confirmation before we take aggressive shorts. I'm okay with taking shorts intraday. What that means is I close out my shorts every day. It's not until Nasdaq begins to trade below 700 that there's a huge gap down to fill based off of previous lows of 650. I'm willing to short into that, but we need confirmation that Nasdaq is going to break below 700, and we simply don't have that yet. Remem- Remember, markets are more bullish than bearish, and this is a great reminder for any person that wants to jump the gun into shorting, just know it comes at a greater form of risk, and shorting should not be done by those that don't know how to manage risk and or beginners that don't want to accept the risk. That being said, uh pretty simple start to the day. Um as of right now, I'm trying to close out part of my short. I'm up $1,200 on the day. I was up a little bit more on the open, but um it is what it is, right? So, obviously, um I'm up a lot earlier here in Italy in comparison to, you know, the United States. So, with that being said, I was taking advantage of some of this pre-market activity with lower highs and lower lows and shorted into the close. So, we'll see how the overall day um plays out. Again, I'll do my part in keeping you guys up to date. And like I've said before, whenever you're ready to join our LBP team, it's a one-time payment, lifetime access. There's a $299 off sale going on right now, and it's a one-time for lifetime access. If you want to watch a recent live session before you join, please do so. We provide it for you right here. And when you're ready to join, like I said, there's people that signed up back in 2018, and they still have access to watching me trade live today, and they only paid once. It's not a monthly subscription, it's not a yearly subscription, it's one-time payment for lifetime access. So, whenever you're ready to join us, second link in the description down below. I hope that I earned your thumbs up. Please consider subscribing, and like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take care.