Andrew Arons on September Volatility, Buying AAPL, NFLX & TJX

Thanks to Alex Coffee, our senior equities contributor, for diving into those numbers for us. Do you want to welcome in our next guest though. Take a broader look at the markets with Andrew Arons, founder and partner at Synergy Advisory Management Group. Andrew, great to talk to you this morning. We've got a nice day of green across our major indices positive gains. We had some positive earnings reports yesterday. But September is historically a much more volatile month. Are you expecting that to be the case for this September. Or are you looking at as being potentially different? Well I think that it might be different this year. I don't know if we're going to see the volatility that we typically see. But you know you got to play a little defense here. We know that seasonality sometimes works against us in September and October. So you know I just want to you know make sure that you know we're in stocks that are have really strong fundamentals and some strong earnings. And there are some stocks that have sold off with their earnings reports that we're trying to take advantage of. And you know, that's what we're looking at right now here in the markets. All right. So as you're looking at that, I see your recommendation to investors is that you use this volatility to buy dominant companies. And also how much cash should people be keeping on the sidelines right now. Andrew. How much how much goes into some of these dominant companies, which we're going to get to in a second? And how much are we holding off to the side to determine just how volatile September is really going to be? You know, we always have some, you know, gunpowder on the side here, you know, maybe five, 10%, you know, that you could add in any time, you know, if you see a dip here in a stock. So, you know, right now we're looking at like a stock like TJX just kind of sold off. And you know, we think that maybe it's a little bit unwarranted here. So we think that that may be a great opportunity as we go into the fourth quarter. And you know they should have some pretty good earnings, you know, towards the end of the year in our opinion. All right. So TJX that's an interesting one because they had I think a roughly 16% sell off. There were some concerns around an inventory sorting issue. If I'm thinking of of the REIT earnings report which I think I am, how are you looking at the health of the consumer with TJX on on your buy list right now, Andrew. And all of these concerns about inflation and tighter wallets and spending and sentiment being low. Yeah. Well, you know, if that being the case, TJX does very, very well. And right now, you know, I still think that whether, you know, inflation is up and right now, you know, we're seeing it, you know, kind of in check here for a little bit. But I think that people are still going to be looking for deals. And you know, TJX did have that issue with the sorting issue, but it looks like this could be a great opportunity. The stock you know has done very well. They're expanding in their stores and their footprint. And I think that this may be a short window here to be able to pick up some shares at a cheap price. All right. So potential dip buying opportunity here. Another pick you brought us not necessarily buying on a dip here but buying at a transition point for sure. We're going to talk about Apple here with John Ternus taking over. And also in advance of this sunrise and shine event where the expectation is we may get a foldable iPhone. Yeah, it looks like we're going to get a foldable iPhone here and some interesting new products. And, you know, with the new CEO, that should definitely bring some energy into innovation at Apple. And I think that they're in a really great spot right now. You know, and I think that this is only going to make things better for Apple in the future here. And how are you looking at this foldable phone as an actual revenue driver and market share gainer? Andrew. Because I think it's a fascinating idea, but does it really broaden out their potential market share gain? Or is it just offering another upgrade to some of their higher end consumers because the expected price tag is going to be very high? I think the estimate right now is a little north of $2,000 a phone. Yeah, that's not going to be for everyone, right? That kind of price tag. So you know, but it is definitely appealing to some people. And I think, you know, I think they're going to do pretty well with it. It's definitely offering something different in the marketplace. And you know, I think they're technology is just getting better and better as we're seeing. And I think it's going to be a huge advancement for Apple. All right. Your third name that you've brought today is a bit beat up this year. We're talking about Netflix here. Probably the least offensive of the three. So how are you looking at Netflix and what's driving the opportunity here. Well I mean their revenue their they reported a revenue of $12.5 billion with expectations for ad revenue to double, which looks really, really good here. Their core, their ad tier growth engine is to double to 3 billion this year. Like I said, enforcing separate profile emails or forcing viewers into more paid accounts. Their live sports expansion looks really good. The highly anticipated NFL holiday streaming games, you know, bring massive new ad inventory for them. And I think right now their compressed valuation, it's trading well below historical highs. And I think we're going to see, you know Netflix maybe start to move quite a bit here as we get towards the end of the year. And I love the live sports component to Netflix and how important that is. We keep hearing all these conversations around live sports with the streaming services and Allison coming out and saying he can't get his hands on enough of the sports broadcast. But when it comes to Netflix and the NFL games, particularly as we come into the holiday season, which is where a lot of their bread and butter is in terms of these live sporting events, how much of a growth driver are these live sporting events versus the advertising opportunity that these live sporting events are present for Netflix? Yeah, definitely. The advertising is really what's driving, you know, the revenue here for Netflix. But, you know, the more popular they get, the more they bring on is definitely going to help the bottom line for Netflix. All right, so you've got three different ways that we play September here. You've got Apple, you've got TJX and you've got Netflix. If we see the market pull back another 10%, 5 to 10% seems to be the number I keep hearing in my interviews. Which one would you want to buy most aggressively? If the market pulled back? I think I'd be buying probably Netflix right here. I think Netflix has some real upside to where they're trading right now, and I think that they're going to do extremely well. All right. And then let's play devil's advocate on that one. If we get no pullback at all we continue to move higher. Which name has the most upside potential that perhaps the markets aren't seeing right now. I think I think we could see Apple move quite a bit higher. I mean we're looking at maybe a $400 price target here on Apple. And does your thesis change at all Andrew. If we end up getting a hike from the fed in mid September, if we end up getting a hike in September, I don't think that that's going to totally kill the market we're looking at. Maybe that's a little bit priced in here, but we'll see what happens. I would say that Apple looks pretty good to me right now as well. All these stocks that I'm highlighting I feel are really good buy buying opportunities as we get into the end of the year here. All right. Really appreciate you being with us, Andrew, and taking a look at some of those picks that you may see some great opportunity in through year end. Andrew Arons fou