Recommandations
L'entrée est le cours de clôture de l'actif à la date de publication. Le cours actuel est la dernière clôture enregistrée.
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Entrée $100,61 04 sept 2026Actuel $100,61 04 sept 2026Résultat +$0,00vs. indice +0,0% SPY +0,0% sur la même période
it might be really value.
Contexte So from this perspective, the ugly is getting so ugly that at this point it might be really value.
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Entrée $100,61 04 sept 2026Actuel $100,61 04 sept 2026Résultat +$0,00vs. indice +0,0% SPY +0,0% sur la même période
1.5 is a great buy.
Contexte that a PE firm might be happy to pay 13, 15 billion for 1 billion in cash flows, 1.5 is a great buy.
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Entrée $100,61 04 sept 2026Actuel $100,61 04 sept 2026Résultat +$0,00vs. indice +0,0% SPY +0,0% sur la même période
he will be doubling down around 100 and below
Contexte however better than this it doesn't get it's Michael Bur's biggest position he will be doubling down around 100 and below
Transcription Complète
Good day, fellow investors. I couldn't sleep this night. Woke up around 2:30. I sensed a disturbance in the force. Or maybe it was just a mosquito. Anyway, Michael Bur did send an email. Whether he disturbed the force, I don't know. However, Lululemon is a lemon and now below 100. Don't know where it will open today, but it's always an interesting story. What happened? Well, we have revenues finally decreasing significantly 4%, comparative sales decreasing 9%. If you compare that to the previous quarter, it was bad, but not that bad. It was still a growing company. Comparable sales also up. If you compare it to 2024, it was looking much much better with higher profits. Now we discussed the sportsear industry recently looking at all Nike Lulu's on on and concluded how at the end it is all about customer preferences first what will be in fashion that year what will grow what won't grow and that is very very hard to predict something is in fashion then next year something else the problem is people buy the People buy those stocks that are in fashion and then they are surprised when those stocks like Nike fall 75% or 80% like Lululemon as the trend shifts. However, we also said that at some point it gets so ugly it has to be value. Let's discuss that market cap now after 18% down will be 11 billion. P ratio will be eight likely around 10 on the guidance and then if we look at the situation yes sales are down 12% international sales also down there have been some issues in China however earnings still there still profitable there are some tax refunds okay and they also did repurchases all in all the company still profit profitable. The company is still there. Inventories are not booming. So they are managing that. Okay. Revenues outlook still declining doubledigit decline. This is big for a company to say for the year still $9 per share in profits. Even if the situation is terrible next year, they will still make around $56 in profits, but net income is still there. So just what's that? 20% down. If we look at the earnings call, revenue grew only 4% in China. That is because they made the big mistake with using a Japanese drum at their main Chinese event for the year and that happened in June. So this heat should been even greater as the quarter ended in July. So revenues much lower than expected and that will also trickle down likely in this quarter. But then I looked a little bit at the conference call and what can one say? Scuba steady state super loft fabric. The fine friend metal vent tactis golf tops mean woo leave Louis Haml this is getting crazy the breezley dance studio pants of course the company is having declining sales of 10%. However a bit of a slow start can also be a way to put it. However, we have a company that has been growing. If it stabilizes somewhere, people like this breezy, dancy, pency, and then we still have trailing revenues. We still have trailing net income and free cash flows of above a billion. The guidance is still for EPS of nine. That might be a little bit lower, I don't know, at seven. That depends on where analysts see it next year. Times 15. And there you are close to the price. New co will do her best to revamp things. Trends always change. It is cheap. Yes. And then there is the private equity takeout situation. If you look at the owners institutional so that might go there. The problem is those who bought at 500, at 400, at 300, at 200 would not be happy with a takeout at 120, 130 that a PE firm might be happy to pay 13, 15 billion for 1 billion in cash flows, 1.5 is a great buy. Perhaps even 20 billion, which would be a price of 200. So from this perspective, the ugly is getting so ugly that at this point it might be really value. The margin of safety 1.5 billion in cash market capitalization. It is profitable. The brand is there 50% or more upside on private equity speculation if the CEO is hired to sell the company. So something will happen. This might be the ugliest perhaps next quarter still the CEO with will kitchen sink things try to rebalance new this new that we'll see what her plan will be however better than this it doesn't get it's Michael Bur's biggest position he will be doubling down around 100 and below I don't know how much yoga he does but maybe some crazy sluffy design then studio pens would help him in making a better decision. Me personally, I said I don't need this kind of disturbance in my life. So for me it's not. But it certainly looks like a goodbye now. We discussed Nike. So you can check also that video in the link in description below. And I'm looking at it and I'm saying now it is cheap. Somebody will take it out. Something will happen and that's about it. But it's always fashion. It can always go even lower depending on what happens with the tricky fashion trends.
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