The Stock Market is BLIND to THIS | 100x Tesla

But don't forget it is coupon code expiration day today. [laughter] Okay, it's the morning after the Cyber Cap event that Elon Musk did not show up to and there are some bullish and some bearish things that we have to evaluate for Tesla and the Cyber Cab. Most importantly, this process that I call edge mapping and I think that's going to be the critical component going forward for Tesla. So I was thinking about this a little bit with the event we heard yesterday listened to yesterday listened to it multiple times. A key that stood out to me was the reiteration by the cybercap crew that they uh do not map that they use a vision-based only strategy. And so this is where I'm introducing a concept or or uh what what I believe what they're doing. So I'm calling it this. I don't know if this is what it's called but I think this is exactly what they're doing. I think what they're doing is they're vision-based edge mapping. And there are some comparisons to Whimo here that we have to know because it's going to factor into what we think about a Tesla future price target and the stock, which we'll also talk about in just a moment. So, uh, let's let's think about this. Whimo is deemed to be way more expensive for the vehicle, which is a fair assessment by Elon Musk. We think the unbox process for the Tesla Cyber Cabin, frankly, it's a no frills car, no glass roof on the inside, no back seat, no glove box, it's a monitor, flat dash panel, plastic like back of cop car kind of shell in the back. You could hose off. Great for fleet. Like, this is, you know, pretty no frrill. So, just put it straight that way. And the unboxed uh manufacturing process is supposedly going to reduce the overall assembly line length by 50% and then make it faster. We don't know how much faster. We know installed capacity is about 125,000 per year to manufacture cyber cabs. That's the estimate Tesla's giving us, which is great and that'll be important in just a moment. So, we do expect that cyber cabs are much less expensive. So, I put $1 sign. So, it's kind of like, you know, cheap fast food versus, you know, a three $ three signed meal or maybe even a $4 signed meal, right? Uh, obviously, Whimo uses a whole suite of sensors, LAR, vision, radar, and full mapping of the areas that they are operating in. Tesla on the other hand uh doesn't utilize that strategy. They utilize a vision only strategy, but it introduces the big concern for Tesla, which is uh expensive $3 sign expensive, not on the car, but expensive human edge mapping. Edge mapping is basically where you have a supervising driver, and they think this is exactly why they've also updated the FSD software in Tesla vehicles. uh if you're not familiar with it, every time you disengage FSD now, they have a persistent popup, which means it doesn't go away until you vote. And what they want is every time you disengage FSD, you press, oh, I'm disengaging FSD because I'm parking. Tesla don't really care about that that much. It helps a little bit for parking, but less important. Uh other, they don't really care about that much either. Safety, your critical alerts or navigation alerts, that's what they care about. And so you could hit critical. They want to fix all of those edge case scenarios and navigation useful as well. All of these are useful in their own right. In fairness, parking is useful. Navigation's useful. But killing all of those edge case scenarios with critical interventions of FSD is really, really expensive to do with only Tesla employees. So they've basically enlisted every single Tesla driver to deal with those edge case scenarios. And so a lot of people I see in comments, they're saying, "Hey, I see cyber cabs in Houston. I see them in Texas. I see them in Vegas." Great. The problem with these vehicles in these other states where edge mapping has not been completed yet is Tesla is actually manually edge mapping. You could see in this Florida shot here a clear steering wheel in the vehicle. And so I think what they're doing is they'll deploy, you know, maybe 20 of these with human Tesla drivers and they'll basically use the cybercap to go edgemap themselves the areas they want to expand to. That's an example of a uh Florida one. There are here's another uh South Florida example. I think the last one was Orlando. And in this example as well, you could see a steering wheel here. So I don't think it's a surprise. I don't think they're hiding uh this. kill that music there. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, but what it is is it's slow and that's the issue. Do I really think it's that expensive to hire 20 people to drive these vehicles with these, you know, steering wheels here? No. The problem is time. And that's probably the biggest issue that we face right now in edge mapping. I think manufacturing we're good. I think on the technology were good but only once the timeconsuming edge mapping has been completed and the part that uh I really think a Tesla investor should pay most attention to right now is that it took Austin 12 months to get to basically full self-driving robo cabs right on a steering wheel and pedalless vehicle. That's Austin. What you really need to see now is you need to see those dots compressed to like 3 month validation cycles for cities. That would be ideal because I think we're going to hockey stick past Whimo's robo taxi manufacturing. And so what we have is we have some estimates that we've put on a spreadsheet. So, Whimo reportedly had 700 uh robo taxis on the road July 2024, 2500 on the road by December 25, and 3,700 on the road by May of 26. I'm just interpolating and throwing in a 1500 here so I can actually get a chart, but this gives you the the Whimo ramp graph, if you will. The Tesla Cyber Cab has, you know, really moved up like 20 to 100 roughly. Uh, and these are like actually driverless vehicles. So, you have a little bit more of a hockey stick bend here. Not that this is really particularly useful because these are very small numbers, but it does highlight something very important. I think this is my opinion. [clears throat] I believe that the situation for Tesla is we are now at a critical inflection point on how fast we can edge case map. That's it. I agree. They're probably not fully mapping. They're just edge mapping. Okay, it's different. Don't call it mapping. Fine. Edge casing. We could, you know, we'll just simplify it. Edging. Okay, Tesla is in the edging phase. And what we're really looking forward to is their ability to accelerate edging. So getting from edging to completion. That's what's critical here for Tesla. in Austin it took 12 months maybe in South Florida it'll get down to eight months the faster those ramps go so basically time to you know time from we just started testing in Vegas and we just started testing in uh you know Houston or whatever to we are now launching fully selfdriving robo cabs or cyber cabs that's your inflection point for Tesla that's when things get really bullish why because they could actually manufacture are a whole lot faster than Whimo. It would not be unreasonable for, you know, if we go out over here and, you know, we end up seeing Whimo go something like, you know, 4,000 to maybe 5,000. Call it end of 27, right? So, we'll call it 1231 20. You know, I'll even be generous. I'll call it 2028. You could potentially get to a 100,000 at Tesla. So, your ramp here uh is going to let's see here. Let's adjust the data reference a little bit. Your ramp right here is kind of going to look relatively consistent. You know, pretty stable line across. But the ramp over here, let's edit those data references. This is going to go kooky. You know, this is going to look exponential because you're starting at such a low base. It's it's literally going to look insane. But this inflection point is entirely dependent on how fast they could get through the edging phase. Once we know that, that's when you could really underwrite Tesla stock uh in my opinion more cleanly. So, if I go to my Tesla stock analysis, I actually think, you know, I've I've previously removed Cyber Cab as as just a safety net. You can, in my opinion, add it back in after yesterday's event. Yesterday's event is a short-term negative catalyst because people are going to see it as buy the rumor, sell the news because honestly, they dropped the ball on the event. Like, Elon should have been there. Elon should have said exactly what I'm saying right now. Okay? If Elon just had a damn presentation, put his pants on, got up on stage, and said, "Look, we don't map. We do vision only. It took us 12 months to do it in Texas, in Austin. We think we could do it in 8 months in Houston. We think we could do it in 4 months in Orlando." And guess what that means? That means every subsequent city we go into, Vegas, Denver, Utah, this that, boom, boom, boom. Here's a map on on the background on the charter, whatever, we can now get these things from edging to done in 3 months. If he went up there and said that and then said, "This means by the end of 2027, we could have a 100,000 vehicles on the road because we have now compressed the time it takes to edge and we're good to go." This stock would be up 20% today. Now what is uh you know cyber cab revenue actually look like if you underwrite this as maybe taking 10% market share from Uber which has you know obviously a global operation at a 20% margin. Hey it adds maybe $1.2 billion of operating income. It's that's good. It adds maybe $50 to the stock for a 2030 valuation. It's not actually where most of the money I think comes from. uh the unboxing process. I actually think selling the cyber cabs and then letting fleet operators do it is the most profitable thing for Tesla. I think Tesla should validate the technology and sell it. I don't think they should be in the business of operating these cabs. Let other people take the depreciation. Sell these. Take the money up front. Sell them the full self-driving. Put them on a full self-driving subscription and literally manufacture high margin cyber caps. Sell high margin FSD. Don't operate the bull crap of driving people around. Just validate it and sell the damn car. I think that's the future. Now, I'm already underwriting, you know, 4 million vehicle sales over here. So, I think there's a lot built into this $65 price target for Tesla for 2030. It requires uh the semi-truck to ramp to operating income of 3.5 billion. FSD subscriptions to roughly double on operating income. Tesla bot, I want to see 200,000 bot sales. I think I it's actually conservative by 2030. Uh and I want to see the unboxed uh or or cyber cap robo taxi revenues of about a billion bucks. That could end up being higher if we just sell these to others and we actually get that inflection point. But we didn't have Elon to give us the guidance. Uh which of course we know Elon's time frames can be a little loony. You know, he says one year, it's probably going to be three years. That's why we're underwriting for 2030. But I actually think the stock would have done really well if they did what I just said. But I'm not employed by Tesla. I don't think they even want to talk to me. I don't really care because this could actually create an opportunity for people who are seeing this. Like if you're in South Florida, if you're in Orlando, if you're in Houston and you're like and you're seeing full self-driving cyber cabs actually get deployed there, you should be tracking when did they start, when did they deploy. As soon as that compresses from one year down to three months, that's when we get to escape velocity for robo taxis. Until then, it's a very time consuming process to map out all of the edge scenarios. And I think that's what they just went through with Austin. And that is the biggest test for Tesla stock. That's the most important thing for Tesla stock going forward. Now, yes, today is coupon code expiration day. So, if you have not yet joined us over at meetke.com for the alpha membership, get all nine courses, every trade alert, every private liveream, every alpha report. Tax professionals say it could be a tax write off, and we'd love to see you there. Remember, you can also email us at staff@meke.com to bundle up the homesai lifetime subscription before we end that lifetime subscription. You keep it once you're in. So, you can bundle both of them up together. If you're new, [music] you can email us if you're already in the Membership and you want to add this in. Uh, but we will be removing this as the J-Hole coupon code expires. >> Why not advertise [music] these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. >> We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. >> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet [music] Kevin. Always great to get your take.