Contexte
"All right, guys. Welcome back to another episode here on AMD. We haven't talked about this one, I believe, in a few weeks. Overall, still extremely bullish in this company."
I still am a firm believer that this is a stock that's going to have a stock price of over $600, even $700 within the next two to three years.
Contexte
"A lot of great news in my opinion here for AMT. I don't know where the stock is going to be this year or where it's going to finish, but I still am a firm believer that this is a stock that's going to have a stock price of over $600, even $700 within the next two to three years."
Transcription Complète
If you are an AMD shareholder, you are going to want to watch this video as we're going to take a closer look at a lot of things impacting AMD in the past few days. And I do believe its biggest competitor, Nvidia, recently gave amazing news to the market. So, let's take a closer look in today's episode. But before we begin, if you're serious about semiconductor and AI investing, I break down major earnings and conferences inside my community. Institutional Quality Research built for retail investors. Get 33% off at whatthechipappen.com. All right, guys. Welcome back to another episode here on AMD. We haven't talked about this one, I believe, in a few weeks. Overall, still extremely bullish in this company. Still believe it's a multi-trillion dollar player because of the growth opportunity for the Helios rack really comes to fruition and I do believe that's the case, right? So, that's the pull and take. Every investment has a pull and take for me. The pull and take is the massive pool is going to be Hale's rack. Unfortunately, the take side is there is no real demand for Helios, then this is a company that's overvalued. And that's what I think every investor in my opinion should understand when investing in AMT. I believe the demand is there. We have some great partnerships with companies like OpenAI as partnerships with Anthropic, with Microsoft, with Meta, with Oracle, and the list goes on and on, and I believe we're going to get even more and more as the time progresses. But right now, the stock is sitting at around $450. For the year to date, the stock is up roughly 100%. So great great returns to investors. Unfortunately though, unfortunately though, right from its 52- week high, the stock is down roughly 21%. Now, I did mention at the intro that there was something that its competitor Nvidia mentioned that I think is extremely bullish for AMD. So Nvidia in their latest earnings which came out on August 26 a little bit over a week ago they mentioned that they are in seeing incredible demand acceleration even at their scale and they're talking about their AI data center solutions customers forecast point to our growth doubling next year however as I mentioned earlier we expect to grow approximately 70% as we are supply constraint NVIDIA complete compute is f fully utilized across every cloud we serve and I think that is extremely bullish. So what did Nvidia mention? They could grow 100% next year if it wasn't for the supply chain market and because of the supply chain market they're only able to grow 70%. So there's at least at least another 30 40% that they could grow in theory if they had the supply chain. Now, Nvidia, while they do have big pockets and they do have a good amount of TSMC's manufacturing line, they have a good amount of memory, they have a good amount of optics and all that, they don't have it all, right? They do not have it all. There's no way a customer like TSMC or a memory player like SKH Highix or all these memory companies just say, "Yes, you're going to take 100% of my allocation." And this to me tells me that the demand and supply imbalance is still massive. is massive in this AI story where we want AI to continue to innovate and if you are an AI leader you can't lack you can't lack in the AI space you can't miss a few months of compute if you can only get 70% from Nvidia what do you do for the other 30%. Well, luckily there's Broadcom and AMD and both those players have secure supply chains, right? We know AMD is securing SMC manufacturing. They're working on the whole supply cuz they know the scale of this. They're not scaling it most likely because of their balance sheet like Nvidia is, but they hold a portion of the supply. They're also kind of making deals with land power shell deals as well to also make sure they lock in that part of the supply chain as well. So if Nvidia, their biggest competitor, is telling me that we have so much demand, but because we don't have all the supply, we can't grow as fast as fast as we could. That gives me an indication that those AI companies are not going to sit and wait for Nvidia to make more GPUs. They're going to go and try to find that compute elsewhere because that compute is going to be extremely extremely valuable. And to me, that was one of the main reasons to be excited for AMD. Again, it all really falls onto AMD's team, right, to make sure they're engineering, and I think they have a great engineering team. They have a great advanced packaging team, but it all falls on them that the Helios rack system is truly truly at the spec and the speed that all these companies need. And not just I'm talking about performance, but I'm talking about the way to build up this infrastructure, right? A AI company is not going to want to buy a chip, but it's going to take you years, right? or many many quarters to stand it up. That's not going to that's not going to go in this space. At that moment they would say maybe I could just wait for Nvidia to get more supply because by the time I get it I know their system I can turn on extremely quickly. So AMD needs to execute extremely well during this Helios ramp up system and I think they are but that is one of the risk. Now, I want to kind of talk about some other stories here for AMD. But before we go anywhere, I did I I haven't been here on on YouTube for a while. Uh it's been a little bit of family issues and just been really busy. Uh so I really wasn't able to give this offer to everybody. But right now at what the chip happened which is my personal semiconductor AI community where you have chat you have exclusive live streams you have apps that help you understand certain portions you have courses that help you understand the semiconductor and AI space. Right now I'm having the best offer of the year 40% off right 40% off. Check out what the chip happened exclusive live streams three times a week where you get to ask questions directly to me and and so much more. Right? So much more. So check it out at whatthechipappen.com. Now let let's go on for AMD, right? Continuing here on this AMD story, the AI story is here for AMD. It's and again it's all on the Helios. But if Helios is extremely strong like I believe it's going to be, the AI story for AMD has begun. And what do I mean by that? What I mean by that is sequentially we are going to continue to see growth on AMD's revenue, right? And it kind of started a little bit in June, but it bit I saw a little bit of a hiccup in March 1926 and then now it's really starting to pick up. But I think from here on out, as long as there are no hiccups, the revenue growth story sequentially is going to continue to go up. For this most upcoming quarter, we expect to have a roughly 40% year-over-year growth at roughly 13 billion. And then that's going to accelerate in December of 2026 to 16 billion at 56.7% year-over-year growth. I believe the quarter after that is even going to accelerate growth again. I mean, if we look at AMD's kind of December 2026, the market expects 46% year-over-year growth. But even after that strong base, you're expecting around a 72% yearover growth the year after that. So AMD is definitely kind of in that AI story if this trend continues. And I do believe we it is going to continue. We continue to see new models come out. Astra 6 from OpenAI has been amazing. We see a lot of toggling and compute pushes or or issues with companies like Grock and and and Claude because they don't have enough compute and unstability issues because they just need more compute. All this points to the direction that we need more AI infrastructure. And if Nvidia can't provide 100% of the market, whoever else has locked in supply chain like AMD will benefit dramatically out of it. And for all my Nvidia investors, right, I'm not saying Nvidia's here is going to lose to AMD. That's not what I'm saying. It's in this current supply industry. AMD can still win without Nvidia really losing. Uh the other day I wanted to showcase was forward PE ratio. Next 12 months does look a little bit expensive, right? 41.1, but just fiscal year of 2027, which would be what the next 18 month it drops down to about 30. That does not seem crazy for a company that's really starting out here in the AI story, right? not even a trillion dollar player and has massive opportunity as the capics of all these companies continue continue to grow. Next, I also want to jump into certain AMD news, right? A lot of updates have happened in the past 714 days that I think investors should know. First, Humane is now delivering production AI compute in Saudi Arabia powered by AMD's MI 355 GPUs, AMD epic CPUs, right? The 355s is not a rack scale system, so there's limited amount of demand there, but it's great to see this pick up. Now, what I thought was more important was AMD me did mention that Cisco and Humane plan to deploy up to 250 megawatts of AI infrastructure as part of the next phase of the buildout beginning in 2027. So, up to is the key word here, but it does showcase that even a few hundred megawatts of compute is a lot of a few billions of dollars in revenue, right? A gigawatt is about ten of billion. I think closer to 20 to 30 billion dollars in revenue for AMD. I mean a quarter of that is still about five six seven billion. That's still a lot from one selected customer Humane overseas. Uh they still remain on track though to deploy about to about 1 gawatt of AI infrastructure by 2030. So it's good to see this expansion. It's good to see that they're still in plan to deploy MI450s as well in 2027. So this is the type of news AMD investors are going to want to keep closer eye. Right. It's great to get the big partnerships, but it's not horrible to have these small players that are continue to help AMD [snorts] build more and more solutions. The other thing that we did see is AMD's Instinct GPUs and Epic CPUs are going to power Europe's next generation Lumi AI supercomputer, and they're going to be using AMD's Instinct MI430s um GPUs and the sixth generation AMD Epic CPUs. Now, the MI430s, and this is AMD, one of my favorite things about them is they're really good at advanced packaging. So, they're able to really go through this whole chiplet architecture and design the chip the way they need it, right? You have the MI450s for AI accelerators and true AI labs, but for sovereign AI where you need maybe a mixture of simulation of certain things that not necessarily always focus on AI workloads, the MI430 is great for that. And I believe they have other solutions as well, but AMD, this allows them to really enter into that sovereign market which is also growing like crazy. So this is going to be built on the Mi430X and AMD's new CPU solution. Deployment is scheduled for the second half of 2027. Now that means that some 430s most likely will be sold in the first half of 2027 if deployment is scheduled for that. So this is more small customers, small customers here and there start to look like one massive customer, right? If you start to have a lot of little players ramping up through this infrastructure play and through all these different GPUs, it helps to build that revenue. So again, small players are good, especially when you continue to see a lot of news like this. The next thing we do want to see is AMD did have kind of a data center math has changed and Dan the senior vice president and general manager of compute and enterprise AI wrote kind of a blog and he's kind of saying that right now there has to be a consolidation in AI servers and just servers in general enterprises right now do tend to have a lot of legacy products and this is some of the math that has been shown before prior to AI we've actually seen this and maybe not to this extent example we've seen top level discussion and what we see here is that enterprises can consolidate 100 5 to7 year old Intel CEO platinum CPU servers into 14 AMD epic CPUbased servers and that would be an 86% and reducing the power by 69% and lower three-year total cost of ownership by 41%. So again, they used to show this and give a reason to really push this. Hey, you need to upgrade those old CPUs, 5, six year CPUs because you can dramatically save on things. But now, now the big difference is you're limited with how much power you have. So if maybe you can reduce the amount of wattage you use on these CPUs now and all these servers you're gaining real estate and more importantly you're getting you're gaining power that you didn't have before and now with that power you can go and say hey look now I can buy for my enterprise I can go buy a few GPU servers or AI servers it ends up saying that server consolidation may not be the highest profile item on the CIO agenda right know, but it is material and a measurable project. So eventually, maybe not this quarter, maybe not next quarter, but eventually there is going to be a time when CIOS are going to go, you know, it's finally time to update that old C server CPU. It's time to add the new server CPU so we have better better real estate footprint and more importantly, it opens up wattage for us to maybe buy some AI servers as well. Uh, so I think it's interesting to understand that there's also that kind of potential small tailwind for AMD. Next, on August 27th, a little bit over a week ago, we did see AMD release 10. This is kind of their software platform to kind of help work with all their solutions. It's great to continue to see this updates. They do mention this is now a new AIdriven development platform and they've added a lot of new AI tools and AI solutions to help with the software development as well. So great to see AMD not just focusing on rack scale system on individual CPUs on individual GPUs but also to be focusing in the software space and with AI it's actually accelerating this at rapid levels. Now on Friday morning I think around 5:00 AMD had kind of like a keynote I think it's in Europe the IFA 2026 conference and we're talking a lot about AI local devices there. AMD came out with some interesting solutions with their business partners. We see the the think center from Lenovo. It's we're entering into this market where we also need some form of localized AI. AMD has done it already. They showed the AI halo I believe during CES and maybe prior to that. Now we're moving into more solutions like this and you were going to be able to connect up to four of these devices to be able to scale and have some strong local AI solutions. They introduce actually laptop concepts. We saw am Nvidia have the RTX Spark which is going to have unified memory and is going to be able to do local AI in a laptop form. So it seems like this is where the market is headed because now AMD is also starting to do this. I believe one of the big driving forces here was Apple. Apple was getting a lot of this market share right MacBooks were selling the Mac Studios continue to sell AMD and Nvidia say this is a market opportunity and we need to enter with this AI story. It also allows them to continue to expand their software ecosystem, right? AMD gets to expand their software ecosystem of Rockom to potentially new developers in the future. So, a lot of great news in my opinion here for AMT. I don't know where the stock is going to be this year or where it's going to finish, but I still am a firm believer that this is a stock that's going to have a stock price of over $600, even $700 within the next two to three years. Long-term very bullish in this company and I do believe it's going to be a market beater. So, take care. Have a good day.
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