Every Stock I'm Buying Right Now (10 at Unthinkable Prices)

I have 64 stocks on my watchlist right now, and that may be a shock to some of you with all the conversations I've had about current market valuations. And I'm going to share with you the best deals that I have found on that list. The first thing I want to share with you are the 18 stocks that based on my assumptions are selling at or near their intrinsic value. That means these stocks could potentially have a 9% or higher return over the next 10 years. MasterCard DoorDash Airbnb Louis Vuitton, Alibaba, Paycom, T Rowe Price, Ulta Beauty, Target, Tractor Supply, Chipotle, Otis Elevator Company, Hershey Visa Poolcorp Disney Microsoft, and Adobe. Now, some of these companies I own already like Ulta, Target, Disney, and Adobe. There's also a good number of them on my list of stocks that I want to own forever. And in a minute, I'm going to show you the list of stocks with potentially over a 15% return based on my assumptions. Now, no matter what I say in this video, you are not to make a purchase or a sale because of what I say. I'm here to teach a process. I'm here to show you how I'm thinking. In all likelihood, you will disagree with me on things. But, the goal is that our process and our thinking is similar. How we evaluate is going to be different, but our process of thinking is similar. Now, I've picked 15% for my desired return. That is very high. I'm not recommending that for everybody. For those of you new to the channel, I have businesses. I have lots of real estate, and I have some stocks about 30% of my net worth could even be invested in stocks. So, that's why I'm picky. I want to sit there and only buy stocks that are going to make me a huge number based on my assumptions. I also dollar cost average in low-cost ETFs. So, it just shows you I'm trying to be picky about my stock selections. Now, let me share with you the 10 stocks that have the potential for the most upside at these current prices. Southwest, Nike, Builders First Source, Uber, Lululemon, American Express, Sprouts Farmers Market, Meta, Intuit, and PayPal. All 10 of these stocks returned a potential 15% or higher based on my assumptions over the next 10 years. That is 15% annualized IRR. Now, let me analyze the one that I think has the best potential right now based on my assumptions. And after that, I'm going to share the list of 15 stocks that are getting very close to their intrinsic value. And if we have a correction, they will probably become a nice opportunity. The stock I want to talk about is a is a company that I use every single day. Many times a day. Intuit. If you don't know Intuit, they're the makers of QuickBooks, and I believe they own Mailchimp. So, I'm hearing a lot of things out there that people say, "Oh, AI's going to replace accounts. Not going to be necessary forever. Even Intuit. Oh, Intuit's going to be dead." And I'm I'm like, "But we still need a software to handle our books. Even on an Excel sheet. I don't want to handle my books on Excel. That's so easy to get destroyed or get hurt. You have the calculations." I don't think Intel's Intuit's going away at all. So, I look at this one as a company that you look at it was $813 a share less than 1 year ago, 10 months ago. It is now $323 a share. Guys, if I had told you 1 year ago that the stock was going to be down 58%. Intuit would be down 58%. You would have thought, "You're crazy, Paul." This is a company that is currently, after falling 60%, $90 company. A $100 enterprise value. This $10 billion difference is essentially their debt. And guess what? They generate $7.8 billion in free cash flow per last year, 5.47 year for the last five, and it's much higher than net income. Our community members have it as a buy. Let me show you this, guys. Look at this. Very low capital expenditures. Very It's called low capital intensive business. They don't spend a lot of capital expenditures. They just keep plugging away and look at their free cash flow. As By the way, when did AI become huge? Right here. They've doubled their free cash flow since AI started getting big. How? Now, their AI in their Intuit not the greatest, but they'll get better and it'll be a good process for them to do things. But, guys, I look at Intuit for me and I'm like, this is a product I use every day. I love it. I think it's wonderful. It's great for small business. How is this going away? Maybe it will, but I don't see how that would happen. So, for me, I'm looking at companies buying 20-30 businesses that people think, "Oh, I have a bad story attached to them." and they're mispriced. So, few other things I love about this company. 80% gross margin. That means every extra dollar they sell, 80 cents of it goes to the bottom line. Another thing, very consistent bottom line profit. 20% a year for the last 10 years, 19.4 for the last five, 22% for the last one, and ROIC 10 and 1/2% for the last five years, 12 and 1/2% last year. Dividend eats up 1.3 billion of their cash flow. Guys, I'm looking at this going, "Look at this growth rate." Yes, they've had acquisitions. $9 billion in the last five years. Look at their revenue growth in the last 10 years, 16% a year. Last three years, 14%. Last five years, 19% annualized revenue growth rate. Let's go to their eight pillars. And guys, when your free cash flow is so much different than your PE, look at their free cash flow one year. 11.5. Guys, these guys should be buying back shares like crazy. They've bought back 3 and 1/2% of their shares. Everything else is a check mark. I'm not even I'm not even worried about this. Their net income doesn't matter to me. It's their free cash flow that matters to me. Now guys, I've thrown a lot at you. If you're new and this is overwhelming, you're not alone. It was overwhelming for everybody in existence to be good in investing at some point. Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, all of them. The point is, stick with it, you will get better, you will be smarter, and you will make better decisions because of it. I am here to simplify all of this. The first step is download our key metrics PDF absolutely for free. We have a PDF. Click the link in the description below or in the very first comment. All of these key metrics will be sent to you, emailed to you, the description how to calculate them, what they mean. It'll make you better. And as we're as you're watching our videos, we'll be speaking the same language. Another thing, don't take our title seriously. By the time you clicked on this video, the title probably changed 85 times. We're here to teach a process. We get you in on the title and thumbnail, then we teach the process and the real lessons within it. So, let's go to our analyst estimates here. Guys, they're expected to make $24 a share in this year, growing to $40 a share in the next 4 years. Look at this growth rate. Now, these are analysts, so you can't just trust them blindly. Their revenue growth, look at this. They go up pretty far. Over double in the next 7 years. That's over a 10% growth rate per year in revenue. So, what do we left here? Guys, remember, great business, but we need to pay a great price. That's the difference between price and value. We are here to determine what the value is. The price is given to us. We have to decide if it's worth us buying. So, let's go to our stock analyzer tool where we put the numbers and the stories together to determine what's the right price to pay based on our assumptions. All right guys, so here are my assumptions on stock analyzer tool. What's interesting here by the way is high return on capital 10 over the last 10 years, 31% and it declined, but it's climbing back up. So, first off, revenue growth for the next 10 years, 5, 8, and 11%. Remember, analysts think 10% a year for the next seven. Profit margin and free cash flow. Remember, their free cash flow is higher. I'm going to focus there. I did 28, 30, and 32. And also, keep in mind, my highest number is actually their lowest number on all of this. So, I think I'm being conservative here. I'm allowing for a little uh they might lose some business and things like that. Next, what PE and price to free cash flow would I put on the company 10 years from now? Not today, not five years from now, at the end of my analysis in year 10. So, high-quality business dominates the market for for for online software for for accounting. I put 18, 21, and 24. And guys, I think you can justify higher than this. And then finally, 9% no margin of safety desired return. This is not the price I want to pay. This is what I think it's worth today. Now, there's something I have to let you know before we finish the stock analyzer. Most people don't fail at investing because they lack information. They fail because when the market feels unpredictable and every decision feels like it could be the wrong one, they freeze. And it makes a lot of sense. That anxiety, it is going to cost you far more than bad trades ever could. And misunderstanding creates fear. And fear creates costly mistakes. But do you know what eliminates misunderstanding? Learning. Understanding. Having the right tools. So, imagine knowing the right price to pay for a stock based on your own assumptions about the future. Not someone else's guesses. What you believe to be true. Imagine having eight clear pillars that tell you the story of any business, so you always know the next right question to ask. And imagine a screener that quietly watches the market for you, so you can sit back and wait with confidence until the perfect price arrives. Well, guess what? That's exactly what we've built here at Everything Money. Just like I was demonstrating for you in this video, our community is a place where clarity replaces confusion, where your next step feels obvious instead of overwhelming, and where you're never making decisions in isolation. Guys, you're going to greatly decrease your second-guessing. You're going to start trusting your instincts because they'll finally be backed by the right tools and the right people inside of our community. Guys, this isn't just about growing your money. It's about becoming someone who's in control of their emotions and their financial future. So, quick question is, what's that worth to you? Is it worth a dollar a day? Cuz that's exactly what it costs. $1 per day for 7 days, you can take our trial, and you can see why over 70% of the people who sign up for our trial end up signing up for the entire year. So, click the link in the description below or in the first pin comment, get full access today, run whatever stock you've been thinking about buying, and see what the numbers actually tell you before you spend a single dollar on that stock. So, I hit the analyze button. Boom. Remember, I'm focusing on cash flow since it's greater than net income. I have a low price of 422, high price of 937, middle price of 631. What this means is, if my middle assumptions occur, I can expect an 18 and 1/2% return on my money over the next 10 years based on those middle assumptions. Now, remember, guys, this doesn't mean the stock's not going to go down. If we have a bad bear market suddenly, you better believe Intuit, which is a high market cap business, a $90 billion business, that's involved in a lot of ETFs, will fall hard. And it's hard to buy a stock that you've already bought that you thought was cheap get even cheaper. That's why we're here with our channel in this community. Now, guys, this list may surprise some of you. Here are the 15 stocks that are getting close to my intrinsic value based on my assumptions. What that means is, remember here, we had a current price return of low side 12.8, high side 24. This one was between These next 15 are between 6% and 9%. So, they're getting close to that intrinsic value. Those companies Copart, Qualcomm, Nvidia, McDonald's, Quest Diagnostics, Netflix, UPS Ferrari Starbucks Google O'Reilly Auto, Lowe's, Sherwin-Williams, Home Depot, and Amazon. When we have a correction, these stocks will fall with the rest of the market and I'll give them a deeper look as the price falls and gets closer to intrinsic value and even further down. All right, guys. So, let's now analyze Amazon. Great company. Nobody would deny this is a phenomenal business. This is a company I didn't understand for a long time. Their margins were low. They were losing money hand over fist. There was so much reinvestment going and the profit was not showing up. The revenue was showing up, but as I'm going to show you shortly, they were the majority of the revenue 12, 13 years ago was still shopping. That was It's still a majority revenue now, but the profitability has totally changed. And the online shop, it's actually far more profitable now. That's one of the benefits. But, let's go take a look. Amazon here. $2.7 trillion market cap. Again, that's the price of the business. $3 trillion enterprise value. That's with debt. So, it's about $300 billion in debt. Guys, their free cash flow is dog Why? Well, look at this first off. Usually when the free cash flow is so much lower than net income, I'm like, this sucks. The company is fraudulent. There's some question ask, but it's Amazon reinvesting into their capital improvement, their data centers, all the things they need to do in order to make more money down the road according to them. But, as you remember, we're in an AI boom right now and a lot of companies are spending just just so they don't get left behind. And that can be not scary, but that can be worrisome where you sit there and go, "Hey, is this going to pay off?" They made 91 billion in net income last year. They lost 2.5 billion in free cash flow. Now, I'm not going to I don't want to get in too much in the accounting of it, but net income doesn't care about buildings you've built. Doesn't care about the data centers. It depreciates those buildings, and then it shows up as a depreciation expense for net income. That's way too complicated. We don't understand what what what I want you to understand is when they build a building, that doesn't that's not an expense. It's expense over a really long period of time. 10, 15, 20, 30 years, depending on how they cost segregate and all that stuff. But I'm looking at this going, "Okay, let's focus on net income here." Right now, it's selling for 30 times earnings. Is that expensive? Well, the market historical average is 15, 16, or 17. So, 30 sounds expensive, but guys, I think we can all agree that none of us in this world could live good life without Amazon. Jeff Bezos said something really amazing recently in an interview. He was interviewing about the Memdani thing and a billionaire as he said "Listen I have done better I've done more for the world to make it better than if I donated every single dollar of my money away." That was an incredible statement because I knew that people who don't like rich people are going to hate that statement. But I knew that business people and somebody who's able to sit there and go, "Ah, crap. He's right. My life is a lot easier because of him." We have billions of people in the world that get products a lot faster because of him. And that has enabled people to live a better quality of life. Is that worth How much is that worth? Billions, trillions a year? I don't know, but the point is including Blue Origin and all these other things, like it made sense to do that It made sense. That statement made sense. So, is a 30 PE reasonable for a company that's changed the world and has stuck in our lives? Maybe it is. Remember, Warren Buffett bought Coca-Cola back in 1987 at a 30 PE. I would I would bet I would have bet that Amazon is more addictive than Coca-Cola at times. And you're talking to a Coke Zero addict. You've got margins that are growing. I love this. 10-year profit margin 6 and 1/2% 5-year average is 7 and 1/2. Last year was 12.2. And it keeps getting bigger. Why? Cuz the gross profit's going up. Another reason why, and this is part of my bull case on Amazon. Let me show you this. Their advertising portion of their business. That's growing like crazy. What's the advertising portion? What you don't realize is when you look for a product online, the first few are sponsored links. That's their advertising. We sell on Amazon for one of our businesses. We pay ad We pay for ads to get on there. And we spend 20 25% of our revenue on those ads. That's incredible. That's growing like crazy. Second, their North American segment of retail, their profit margin went from 8% to 9%. That's a big increase. And guys, that doesn't even touch on AWS. AWS had 28% year-over-year growth to 37.6 billion. It's fastest rate in 15 quarters, almost 4 years. It is so much bigger than it was in 4 years ago, and it still had record rates of growth. And guys, that business is astronomically astronomically profitable. So I look at those three bull cases saying, "Where's the slowdown? Are they going to be able to grow this profit margin even further? Yeah, probably. Their free cash flow will get better." Especially after they stop As they invest in the future, they're trying to invest for dominance. Guys, this is an incredible business. Returns on capital are okay because the free cash flow sucks right now. Man, it's an incredible business. All right. Let's go see what the eight pillars tell us. It's ugly. Don't care. Guys, I like my eight pillars, but I look at this going, "This is useless." Why? Because they're reinvesting in the future. Whenever I own real estate, we always we always invest a lot of money when we buy a piece of real estate. So, you So, I can't value my real estate based on the as is profitability and cash flow. I'm looking at it from when we're done with our renovation 3 4 years from now. Same thing here. Amazon is essentially renovating their business constantly. They're reinvesting. And they're getting returns on that money. Okay, what do analysts think? Well, guys, here is actually what's interesting. I wasn't as impressed with this. Analysts think that Amazon will make $9 per share this year and not even doubling over the next 7 years. That's 10% a year, not even. I was actually quite surprised by that. Very surprised by that. What's interesting is the revenue growth, same thing. Now, granted, because they're so freaking huge, 840 billion to 1.66, almost 2x again over the next 10 7 years, which is 10% per year. Not huge growth, but if a lot of that growth comes from a high-margin business or comes from the business being more profitable that already exists, that's how you get real growth in your earnings. Now, let me go before I sit there and get to what I think Amazon is worth. Let me talk about a few bear cases. First off, CapEx. Like I said, their free cash flow is nothing. Their free cash flow is negative. They're spending a ton on CapEx. The question is, are they going to get a good return on that money? That's it. That's the question. That's always the question, too. Um you know, I I read a lot This is the one This is what I'm taking from people that I've read a lot about. They're worried about depreciation really hurting that income. Yeah, but if eventually in the future they stop the massive CapEx, yes, the net income will still be held back by depreciation, but you'll see the money in the in the free cash flow. So, I'm not as worried about that. But this one does make what does make me question the future. Not in terms of Amazon's ability to stay open. But guys, cloud computing is very, very competitive. It's a high margin business that a lot of people are getting into, which explains why they're spending so much money on CapEx, cuz they want to blow everyone out of the water. If it doesn't work, that's a lot of money spent. Everybody's spending a ton. I can't imagine it works for everyone. That's going to be very hard. So, here we are. We're sitting here looking at a company that's clearly phenomenal, clearly awesome. The question is, what is the right price to pay for it? So, here is the last time I did Amazon on my stock analyzer tool. I did my 10-year analysis. I did revenue growth of 4, 8, and 12%. I did profit margin of 8, 12, and 16. I want to remind everybody, my middle number is the highest number we see in any of these things. So, keep that in mind. I am giving them a lot of growth potential here. Then, what PE would I assign to this company 10 years from now? I put 20, 23, and 26. Guys, I'm not going to lie to you. If you put a higher number in there, I think you're right. If you put a lower number in there, I actually think you're wrong. I can understand a higher number. How much higher? If you're saying to me 40, it's hard, because to get 40, you got to really get a lot of growth. And that's going to be harder as this company gets bigger. And then finally, my 9% no margin of safety intrinsic value return, what is the company worth today? What's the company worth on the market? Now, remember, I'm not here to buy a company for what it's worth. I want to discount to that. So, I always tell people, put a higher number in there. But that depends on you. Your number's going to depend on your situation. So, I hit the analyze button. The stock is currently at 245. I have a low price of 107, high price of 485. And guys, 245 in the middle, 240, it's basically, in my opinion, selling for what it's worth. Now, that's my analysis of it. You might disagree. You might put your own stock analyzer tool in here and come up with much higher numbers. But the point to me is it's not It's clearly not something I need to go buy today. I will wait for lower prices. Now, guys, remember, this was a stock that was close. It was at 6 to 9%. We're at 8.8 with the stock down today. I personally want a 15% return. Again, for my personal reasons, not for anybody else's personal reasons. You might want 12%. More power to you. Because of my situation in life and in investing, I want 15%. So, I just got to wait. You might sit there and say, "It'll never get there." You'd be surprised. And if it doesn't ever get there, I'm good. I'll just sit back and wait. That's all I can do. Now, I have a surprise for all of you that stayed till the end of the video. I have a brand new stock that I just added to my watchlist today. It's a stock that Dalton and I are watching and starting to watch a little bit closer. And guys, I did it the old-fashioned way, the Peter Lynch way of finding stocks. Yesterday, I'm playing Wordle and Connections. I do it every day. My cousin, who I've talked about in this channel before, he lives in Calgary. We have a competition every day. We do Wordle and we do Connections. Whoever wins gets $2 for each one. If we tie, we carry over. My cousin is currently kicking my ass. Let me show you exactly where he's up. So, this year, he I have earned $122. He's earned $480. So, he's up $358 on me. One thing in the world I know is that he does not cheat. Now, it made me think to myself like, "Oh, who owns New York Times?" Guys, I'm not going to lie to you. I didn't even know they were publicly traded. I literally Googled it and said, "Who owns New York Times?" And it said, "Oh, well, you know, it's a market cap." I'm like, "Oh, wait, crap. Wait a second. It's publicly traded." Now, the reason I like this is so many newspapers have fallen by the wayside. But, the New York Times has done a fabulous job. Fabulous job of converting themselves from a paper business to a subscriber business model online. And so, I said, "Let's go check it out." Guys, I was absolutely impressed with this. I couldn't believe I couldn't believe what was going on here. So, here's what intrigued me about New York Times. $12.3 billion market cap and an enterprise value of 12.58. That basically means their cash offsets their debt. That is awesome. Next thing I loved about them. Look at this revenue growth. They have $500 million in acquisitions in the last 5 years, but 10-year revenue growth of 6.3, 5-year of 9.7, and 3-year of 7 and 1/2% with a high gross margin, and their profit margin are getting better. Why? They're getting more subscriber money. They're getting more ads per per user. It's growing and growing and growing, and they're a high-quality publication who keeps adding some people in there. Guys, my understanding is they paid like $3 million for Wordle. And I know the Wordle craze is far gone, but I still me and a lot of my friends still play Wordle. So, I look at this company going here's the only issue I have with them. They're selling for 22 times free cash flow on a business that's growing a ton. Now, let me go look at analyst assessments because I think some analysts 8.8%, 7%, 6% revenue growth. Not a ton. But it seems like they're on the right path, and I love the low debt. So, this is a company I'm definitely going to watch, and I'm going to show you guys quickly what my stock analyzer tool was on it. I did 3, 5, and 7% revenue growth. Before we go there, increasing returns on capital. Profit margin. Their free cash flow is greater than their profit margin. So, I did 12, 14, and 16. I did a PE of 14, 17, and 20. I'm being a little conservative here cuz I'm still feeling that whole it's a newspaper thing. And then finally, my 9% no margin of safety return intrinsic value. And I have a price low price of 31, high price of 70, middle price of 48. So, it still has some room to go. Now, I have it on my watch list at 38 cuz I really want to get that discount to get my 15% more. Now, I want to show you something that I think you're really going to want to see. If you're the kind of person who just watched this entire video, I have a video that's going to be extremely exciting for you. Click the video on your screen right now where I analyze a stock from this list that has massive upside potential. Thank you for your time.