The Smart Money Is Buying THIS Stock Before Anthropic IPOs

There is a stock that holds private companies and we've featured this on this channel as a backdoor play into SpaceX before the IPO and those that followed along saw the stock triple. But since then, it has been absolutely murdered. In fact, it's down so much it's a steal. Today, I'm going to show you why the Destiny Tech 100 is now trading at a 32% discount to what it's really worth, to the value of the stocks inside it. and buying it today is a way to get preIPO shares into Anthropic, which is expected to IPO sometime in the next 12 months. I'm also going to show you a way to hedge the SpaceX exposure and make this a totally neutral trade designed to arbitrage, one of the most liquid ETFs to give you exposure to private companies. Let's go ahead and take a look. Now, this is the Destiny Tech 100, ticker DXYZ, and as you can see, it has gone for a ride. Now, we featured this one on this channel back here, and it was around 2530 bucks a share as a backdoor play into SpaceX and that stock absolutely surged. But since the SpaceX IPO, it has come all the way back down and then some. So, what is a Destiny Tech 100? Well, it's a very unique ETF, an exchangeraded fund. So, if you're not familiar, they trade just like stocks. Simple ticker symbol, you can buy them in an IRA, any brokerage account. And most of them hold a basket of other publicly traded stocks. A nuclear ETF has nuclear stocks. A solar one has solar. But this one's different because what it holds are private companies. So, essentially, this is a private equity fund that the everyday investor can buy. And so here we see the exposure of their portfolio. So what they do is when these private companies have these seed rounds that are raising money, um they go in with the hundreds of millions of dollars they've raised from investors and take stakes in these companies and then they hold them until they go public. So where you know most funding rounds unless you've got three commas in your account balance, you're not really invited. These guys come in and you can hold it. Uh you can buy one stock at Exposure. Here we see they've got Anthropic now their biggest holding at 18.1%. SpaceX, Open AI, Shield AI, Data Bricks, and a handful of others. But the bulk of these come down to these two stocks, Anthropic and SpaceX. Now, how is this thing valued? Well, that's the tough part. Okay, when you're talking about private companies, they don't trade every day on the stock market. There's no ticker that goes up or down each day. The valuation is based on the most recent fundraising round. So Anthropic, for example, they'll raise, I'm making numbers up, $20 billion at a valuation of $300 billion. That's what they're valuing the company at. So they're raising money, and you get a slice assuming that value. A year later, they raise money at a $600 billion valuation, and then it goes public at a trillion dollar valuation. Same thing happened with SpaceX. And so people who bought back here when it was valued at 50 or 100 billion and now it's worth a trillion are up 10 20x. Right? That's why these preipos are so appealing. Okay. So I promise I'm going to get to the point here. This is the breakdown of the Destiny Tech 100 and I what I've done is calculate roughly what the value should be based on its current holdings. Now again, the bulk of this comes from two stocks, and that is SpaceX and Anthropic. In fact, here's a full worksheet breaking this down. Now, by the way, we still have that $5 Black Ops special going on. 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Now, here's this is the reported net asset value. Okay, so once per quarter they say, "All right, well, we have a again making up numbers. Billion dollar position. Its most recent valuation was at 300 billion. Therefore, our shares are worth this." And that NAV, that net asset value does not change until they do another funding round. And so if you look at SpaceX, like anthropic is something like doubled every 3 months, like 300 billion, 600 billion, 800 billion, right? SpaceX did the same thing. And then obviously when they go public, the valuation is even higher. That's the insiders cashing out. That's why they put these crazy valuations. They're putting it as high as the market will possibly tolerate. and 18% in anthropic, 14% in SpaceX, which is now public, 31% in cash that are still out there making deals. Don't worry about the cash. The rest of this is largely rounding errors other than maybe the 5% in Open AI, which I think will at least hold value. Most of these are not real needle mover. Okay? And what's hurting DXYZ now is of course the fact that SpaceX is going down. I'm I'm going to give you a solution to this. Don't worry. I'm going to show you a way to completely hedge the SpaceX. So, when we look at SpaceX, and I did a video a couple of weeks ago talking about this, and this thing's played out exactly as we forecast. I said there's huge demand. It could hit as high as 200. It did me one better. It went 225 the other week. I said it's going to it's going to get added to the NASDAQ, a final little pop. It's going to fall to 150. It's going to stick there a couple of days like it did. It's going to go to 135 and stick at the IPO price like it is now. And I believe, and this is not a dig on SpaceX, just look at the valuation. I think it's going down to 100, probably lower, probably somewhere in the 80s if I had to guess over the next six months. Don't shoot the messenger. It's trading at 85 times sales. It's just crazy. So, here's where the fair value comes in. Now, the SpaceX component of this, we know exactly what it's worth. It trades publicly. We see the closing price every single day. The others, we don't. But again, the the net asset values are calculated based on the most recent funding round even though the company is steadily getting worth more. And the anthropic round, this the most recent value, this is the number as of March 31st, so the previous funding round before that. Tell me that Anthropic, which is the one that owns Claude, is not climbing up the ranks and worth more and more and more. So what it did um it updated these valuations, right? So it it it gave current estimates based off of where the company what the company's likely valued at today and then put it all together divided by the number of shares and gives us this. So right now the concern the rough estimate is somewhere between 35 and $41 a share. Roughly 38 bucks a share is what all this stuff put together should be worth when it eventually goes public and they cash out. But the stock is trading at 25 25 and change which means you get a 32% discount and again this is largely just two stock fund with all these others uh that are in there. Anthropic and SpaceX is 55% of the assets. Okay. So what that means is all stocks over time, not overnight, drift toward their true intrinsic values. This is classic Warren Buffett. He says over the short term the market is a voting machine. Over the long term, it's a weighing machine. Right? In other words, if they're doing well and earnings are rising, the stock price will eventually come back to what it should be worth regardless of the short-term fluctuations. So the XYZ big big swings. She's a mover, folks. But that means it is now trading at a huge huge discount. And there's a kicker on this too because when Anthropic does go public, there's going to be huge demand for it just like there was SpaceX. Probably not quite as high as SpaceX, but it's going to be very high. This thing went well in excess of what it was actually worth and then is corrected in a big big way. But we could it may not go all the way to 70. But we could see this thing I mean again it's it's coming in worth 32 33 bucks a share. don't think it's not possible to think it could go 40 or 50 leading into the anthropic IPO which would be roughly a double for here. Now let's address the two downsides and the two big risks here. Well, one of them is the fact this thing chops all over the place. But again, this is an arbitrage play, meaning you're buying something that is clearly worth this for this. You're arbitrageing the difference and eventually those two values will meet in the middle. So two downsides are as follows. Number one, the fee. Now, most ETFs, exchange traded funds, charge anywhere from 3/10en of a percent to maybe 1 1.2% depending on the complexity. This is 2.5%. Is that a high management fee? Uh, yeah, it is. It's a little crazy, but they're going to the market. Where else are you going to get shares of this? But that's an annual management fee taken out of the fund. So, it's a small drag. If this were an IPO, we're expecting in five or 10 years. No, I don't want two and a half% my value eaten each year. But given the fact that Anthropic will probably go public late 2026 or 2027, I'm not overly concerned about that. The biggest drag to me is SpaceX. This stock, for a lot of reasons, is likely going to go further. It's not a bet against the company. I think long-term it's going to do great, but all the unlocks are coming in. The unlocks are when all those preipo early investors and insiders can finally sell their shares. We've seen we saw $85 billion in sobbing off for the IPO. All this is about to get unlocked. 20% here in August, another 7% uh each at these five rolling tranches. The Q3 earnings launch. This is hundreds of billions of dollars of stock being opened up that can now be sold by people who are up 5, 10, 20 times their money and want out the second they can get out. So all that is likely to push it lower. So, if we bought DXYZ and we're right, but SpaceX falls 40% in the meantime, well, that's going to eat up our margin and push DXY lower. So, how do we hedge that? Well, lucky for us, there is an ETF where you can short SpaceX. This is the one with the lowest management fee. The ticker is SPC. It is a double uh double short SpaceX ETF. So for every $1 you put into SSPC, you have $2 of short exposure to SpaceX. So SpaceX goes down, you make money. Up, you lose money. So here's the trade I think will make money. You buy DXYZ here at around $25 a share and change. it's worth, call it 38 and probably going to blow up into the 40s on the hype around this anthropic IPO. You then hedge the SpaceX exposure by buying SSPC at 10 cents of every dollar you put into DXYZ. So quick math here. SpaceX, look here. Let me zoom in if I can do that. Look down here. SpaceX is currently 21% of DXYZ. Up or down is 21%. This is double short. So if we put $10 into DXYZ, right? For every $10, we buy $1 of SSPC, which is double short. So, it basically gives us $2 of short exposure. So, we are short the same amount of SpaceX with this that we are long SpaceX with this. We are SpaceX neutral. Up, down, doesn't matter. At the end of the day, it's all going to be a wash. All we're doing is trying to arbitrage and play the fair value estimate of DXYZ. And so if this thing gets to or close to $38 a share, you cash out, take a nice 30% lick and you took very minimal risk to do it. Now, it's possible if SpaceX really comes down hard, this only goes to 35, but then you're going to be up big on the SSPC, so it's all going to be a wash. So what we have is a market overcorrection. This was a massive overcorrection on the upside. This has been an overcorrection on the downside. And today we have the opportunity to take advantage of it. Now this is not an official recommendation. This is not investment advice tailored to you. I'm just showing you what I believe is an opportunity to make some money in what lately has been a very volatile market. But the trade for me, long DXYZ, long SSPC at $1 for every $10 I buy of DXYZ and looking for the gap to merge and make roughly a 30 to 40% profit on the trade. Folks, that's it for me. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel and don't forget about that $5 Black Ops special. It is five bucks for the whole year. Live one-hour mentoring sessions with me and the other members every single week for a year. Another one with my analyst. You'll get access to my Trading View indicators, bonus reports, my weekly newsletter delivered to your inbox. You can even call my support staff if you need help. All it for five bucks, no strings. Click the link in the description, scan the QR code, or go to tradewithross.com to get signed up. and I'll see you in the next