The Big 3: AAPL, SPCX, BAC

get your podcasts. Welcome back to trading 360 A Max coffee in for Marley Kayden. It's time for the big three. We got three stocks. We got three charts. We got three trades. We got Rick Ducat here lead market technician for the Schwab Network. He's going to take us through the charts. We also got one of our favorites Tim Bowens joining us chief technical trainer@stockstotrade.com. First off good to see you both. Happy Friday Tim. I'm going to go to you first. What do you make of today's market. It's like one of those days where you start seeing more stocks rally. You're like, oh my gosh, are we going to start going down lower? And it's like, as these chip makers make a little bit of a recovery, we can lose everything else, it seems, and the market starts to come back. Well, first of all, thank you for that kind word. Introduction. Alex. That was probably way more than I deserve. But thank you for that. Nice to see you back. And Rick, as always. Listen, you know a lot of fear over the last week in you know the semis and the a. I obviously you know a lot you know frequent viewers know you know I'm a big proponent of of open source and local models. I'll talk about that later. When we talk about Apple, you know, this news is kind of emerged over this week of of some of the Chinese models, particular Kimmy exceeding, you know, what fable is, has been doing, you know, the frontier models and, you know, a lot of that, you know, reminds me of the deep fake news. I mean, we all remember when Deep Sea first hit and everybody said AI was over. I mean, jeez, what was that two years ago? Now look at all the semis and the memory stocks and the AI plays, etc. since then. And then you go back to last fall. I remember last fall, October, September ish. That was when everybody, you know, it was it was the story for about a month, the AI bubble, I stayed consistent and I'm like, bubble, we're just getting started. You know, when I see these situations, it always reminds me of that famous quote. You know, a stock market bubble is just a bull market that you're not participating in. You know, everyone that's not participating in the run screams bubble, bubble, bubble because they missed it. Okay. So that being said, you know, with some of the shakiness in the SanDisk and the muse, etc. you know, if you were buying these stocks when I was recommending them last fall, you're still looking good. And, you know, I just don't look at these momentary blips as a reason to panic. I look at them as opportunities for people that maybe missed some of those entries, you know, over the last couple years. I mean, I've got the chart of SanDisk up right now and just looks like a bottomless pit. Well, that's great for the people that maybe were the people saying bubble and not participating in the run. Because what we do with technicals, and this is where Ric is the maestro is, you know, we look for the chart to tell us when the bottom is in. Right now they look bottomless. But at some point, probably next week, the week after, they're going to start to firm up and offer opportunities for people that missed them in the beginning. Now, I know I'm kind of like maybe one of the most bullish when it comes to AI. I mean, it's a game changer in my trading and my life. I mean, I literally use it all day long, but I have been consistent that this is just a game changing technology. And what I love about it is it's really a democratization of technology. You know, you look at all of these massive technologies through the years, you know, railroads and all, you know, all these things we think of typically, they were only accessible from the elites. One of the great things about these open source models is it puts the power in the hands of the people. Now, those are they're scared about OpenAI and anthropic and all of these others. Listen, last point I'll make. I love these Chinese models because it puts heat on the American people. The American producers of AI. And, you know, I should probably get a tattoo of this, but it's never short. America. Okay, like I know I throw up Princess bride references a lot, but never get involved in a land war in Asia and never short America. I like the heat on anthropic and AI and others a lot there. Tim. I mean, I think the biggest question we got, we got to know if you got that computer you were talking about last time, but jokes aside, I know you're looking at Apple for sort of the same reason here today is the Mac minis have been a really big part of some of these, you know, open source stories and using some of these technologies to kind of elevate not only trading, but other things as well for, for individuals. Yeah. So Apple actually, you know, I shared it on the big three back in March, up 34% from their I don't say that to brag. I just say it the to confirm the thesis. I mean really nothing has changed. You look at, you know, everything that in my overly long opening statement that I said, sorry about that. I missed you guys. I missed you guys. But anyway, you know, I'm basically getting at the fact that the thesis has not changed. And because of that, you've seen Apple be one of these hidden beneficiaries. They didn't have to spend all the money that the hyperscalers like they're not burning cash, cash, cash. They just nailed the technology and they're benefiting from it. And then flat out, I mean, you add on, you know, it's we all know new iPhone coming in the fall, you know, back to school season. I mean, Apple always has a great end of the year. And it's really just playing out that same exact thesis that I shared back in March. So yeah, no, it's a really good point and fascinating. We're actually talking about this at the very top of the show today with our friend Kevin Henkes. And I was shocked, like I watched these stocks daily. Rick. And I was still shocked to see, hey, Apple's basically been up like every day this week. It's had a good week when it's been a pretty tough week for the Nasdaq. Yeah that's true. And you know we did top out today just a penny short of 335. So that remains an area to watch out for with our red line there. A notable downside area 315 old highs a bit of a chop period there. Then we had a strong breakout above that level. Another ceiling area here near 301 and a gap here near 293. So that stands out as some areas of interest that traders might be following the prevailing pattern. More of a rising wedge type shape. Very narrow very steep. Two trend lines both pointing upward but converging toward each other. Typically this can be suggestive more of a bearish type of outlook, but really it can go either way. You're not looking for it to be a confirmed guarantee. It's going to go down. It's more like you're looking for a breakout beyond either of those two boundaries here. So considering our other studies here, we have our moving averages. Five day EMA in dark blue. 327 fairly close to our trend line, not too much else nearby until we get to our 21 day EMA representing one quarter in teal. 311 is where that one comes in. RSI kind of interesting though. Breaking above that 70 threshold that denotes the overbought area here. So typically that's regarded as a sign of strength in a trending market here for Apple. So now we can also see volume profile a node here and a node here. Those come in near about 310 and about 300 or so. Those are the heavy trading concentration areas. Yeah. It's a it's a really interesting story that's developing here with Apple as the stock sort of reassuming its role as the market's general. But Tim, something I think many were hoping would become like that new big time name and maybe it still will is space ax volatility is extreme at the moment in this name. But it's made the full u turn. When you look at space X, what do you make of the first, maybe month and a week or so of trading? This may shock everyone, but I love it. Okay, you know, this was one I mean we knew the recipe. I mean, those those that are, you know, in the trenches every day. You know, unfortunately, I have never seen I mean, there's a lot of animal spirits. There's a lot of irrational exuberance in the stock market every day. I have never seen anything like space. I mean, I had, you know, I talked to traders every day. I had people the day before the IPO. They're like, Tim, do you think this can double tomorrow? And I'm like, this is the biggest IPO in history. Do you think it's really realistic that it's going to double the day of the IPO? I mean, there were stories in the Wall Street Journal of people literally taking out bank loans to buy stock the day of the IPO. And listen, day before I, I had so many people hit me up. I actually did a, a live stream where I told people, I'm like, listen, the odds are that this stock is going to spike for a couple days and it is going to be dump city after that. Now I say that listen flat out, I have never been more bullish a company or a stock in my entire life. I've been trading 20 plus years. I've been in the markets basically since I was 18. Never been more bullish. But this is what happens when animal spirits and irrational exuberance and people are buying money to buy the day of the IPO. They get shook out, the stock goes into price discovery mode. And what's great about this, for those of us that weren't trading on FOMO and again, irrational exuberance, I think we're looking at sub 100 next week. And when that happens, all of the people that chased all of the people that traded on emotion will be stopped out of the trade. Unfortunately, they'll lose a lot of money. Then I think this stock is going to start to form a base. And then here we go from there. So unfortunately, and I'm not picking on those people that traded on emotion. It's just how the markets work. We've seen it repeat since markets have existed. And it's doing exactly what I thought. And I'm just praying we get some 100 in the next couple of weeks. Hey, and Tim, you know, not to say that this is the next meta, but when Facebook went public, it's pretty mega IPO. It had a lot of, you know, interest and kind of flopped initially. Things turned out okay for Zuckerberg and team in the end. So we'll see if SpaceX can follow a similar path. But let's talk some some charting here, Rick, because there's not a ton to chart. But you looked at, you know, basically since the IPO, what do you make of the action? Well, the nice thing about these types of chart patterns is that technical analysis is more fractal in nature. The same types of patterns and behavior will appear kind of independently of the time frame. For example, we can see that we have a trend line that we could draw here. Going across the highs on this hourly chart, again, we have a wedge type shape. In this case it's more of a falling wedge. So which would be more of a bullish type of outlook. But as I said last time here what you're really looking for is any kind of notable break beyond these established boundaries here. For now we've bottomed out at 12212. That's our green line here. Some other areas of note include old lows that became subsequent highs near about 132, 136, 143. And finally 148 was kind of a notable floor many times here before we had our breakdown. So those are levels that stood out to me. I'm switching back to a daily chart now in this case here, just to kind of get a quick read on the RSI intraday RSI. Not really the greatest because it includes a lot of periods when the market was closed. So RSI right now 36 more of a bearish read here. So we are above that oversold area though. Meanwhile our 20 day simple moving average comes in at 15163. Please excuse kind of the odd look of the chart here. But as Alex said, we don't have a ton of data to go on. Now, switching back to our hourly chart to check out our volume profile, a small note here between about 135 to 140. A much larger note here between about 149 to 163, the most actively traded area at our point of control comes in near about 158. So those are the significant trading volume areas to keep in mind. Yeah. And this is the nice thing. I love the word fractal. And for those who aren't from it's basically mathematical. And you think of like a piece of broccoli, you break off a little piece of broccoli. It's like a little mini piece of broccoli. That's the whole idea. But Tim, last one totally different type of world here, but really nice numbers out of the group. This this week. What do you make of Bank of America? I'll keep this quick again. I missed you guys. I've been a little extra wordy. I keep waiting for the feed to cut off because we like, maybe maybe this guy will shut up at some point, but. So I'll keep it quick. On Bank of America, this was the safe play from last week. You know, it was on big three last week. Just a nice grind continuing to break out. Like when fear comes into the market. You know people tend to gravitate towards, you know the the safer plays like banks etc. So really, you know, the short synopsis is it's done no wrong over the last week. Stay long. Good stuff. And looking at the charts here, Rick, as we pointed out last time around, it's really, really consistently in that upward sloping channel. Yeah. Bank of America is still strong. Bank earnings overall seemingly positive, but perhaps not the greatest reactions in the stock but seeming to iron out more toward the upside with these highs 6212 old. Highs here near 6083. Old. Highs here near 5912. Finally relative. Lows near 5825. Our upward channel still in play here. Reentering the overbought area on the RSI. So look to see if we can start to make significant new closing highs in price. And for the RSI to break out to the upside as well. 6108 is where our five day exponential moving average comes in. One short term area of support to watch. Finally, our volume profile shows that the only real node in question anywhere close to current price activity around like 5650 or so. Good stuff. Rick Ducat, lead market