we got HGV, which is Hilton Grand Vacations Incorporated. So, let's add them to our portfolio
Contexto
Okay, so we got HGV, which is Hilton Grand Vacations Incorporated. So, let's add them to our portfolio
Transcrição Completa
I am about to do the stupidest thing possible with $10,000. These dice are going to pick my entire investment portfolio for the next year. No research, no analysis, no common sense, just pure chaotic [music] randomness. Why? Because everyone claims they can beat the market with skill, but what if it's all just luck? What if uh six-sided dice >> [music] >> can outperform the experts? So, here is the experiment. 10 random stocks, and I will let the dice make changes to the portfolio every quarter just to make it even more unpredictable. So, let's take The Intelligent Investor to find our ticker symbol. First, let's choose the page. 500 and one and three, so 513. Here's the page. Now, let's choose the line. Line two. And now, let's choose [music] a letter. So, line two and letter five is I. Now, let's choose the next letter of the ticker symbol. I S A ISA Holdings. And we are going to buy nine more stocks this way. >> Okay, so after listening to the dice, we created a portfolio of 10 securities. Well, mostly unknown names, at least unknown for me, except for Howard Hughes and British American Tobacco, basically. But, uh yeah, we'll see how that story will develop. I am actually scared that we may lose a lot of money here, but um who knows? I hope I'm wrong. It's been 3 months since the first purchase. So, let's see how well we are doing before we make any changes to the portfolio. So, we can see that we are actually up. That portfolio is worth over $10,700 right now. So, we are up 7.2%. The fact that we are up by over 7% in 3 months is really encouraging. But, let's compare our results to the S&P 500, and we can see that our portfolio, fooled by randomness, is actually outperforming the S&P 500, but only just. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is up by 7%, and we are up 7.2%. Well, we are going neck to neck. So, now let's just take a quick look at our positions. Ring Energy is up over 28%, ProShares Ultra Pro are up 25%, and Howard Hughes is up almost 18%. But, we also lost some money on three positions. Urban Infrastructure Group is down 2%, Bonterra Energy is down 10%, and PowerShares UltraShort is down almost 12%. But, all in all, it's not bad. At least it's better than I anticipated. Okay, so now it's time to see will the destiny change our portfolio. So, let's take our dice, and if I throw one, that means that we will have to change a stock. And if I throw any other number, it means it stays as it is. Okay, let's begin. >> [music] >> Well, it's going to be only one [music] change for the entire portfolio, the fifth stock, and it is ISA Holdings. We are actually up by 8.8% on this investment, so we are securing some gains, and we will have extra money to invest in a new company. And what is going to be this new company? Well, just as before, we are going to leave it to luck. The Education of a Value Investor by Guy Spier. Okay, so first, let's choose a page. Okay, that is page 14, and line five and letter six. So, number six, and it is >> [music] >> N. That is the first letter of our ticker, so let's find the rest. Okay, so it [music] is N A D, and that is Nuveen Quality Municipal Income Fund. Okay, so let's wait another three months and see will this randomness actually continue to beat the market. See you then. >> [music] [music] >> Okay, so we are halfway through our first year of investing in random stocks. So, let's see how well we are doing. And I have to say it's pretty impressive. We are up by 10.72% and the S&P 500 is up by 9.27%. So, we are still beating the market. Our biggest investment is PSG Financial Services up 34.6% Ring Energy and Bonterra Energy are up around 28%. That is very nice. Also, only one stock is substantially down. Urban Infrastructure Group is 40% in the red. So far, so good. So, let's see if the destiny wants us to make any changes to the portfolio. Okay, so there are two companies we have to sell. Ring Energy and Nuveen Quality Municipal Income Fund. And what are the two companies we are going to replace them with? Well, let's find out by taking a look at Psychology of Money and exactly page 25. So, that is you. Okay, we got our first letter. So, let's find the next ones. So, that is UTF and that is Cohen and Steers Infrastructure Found Incorporated. And the other company is page 44. Well, 44 is blank, so we have to do it again. And that is page 61. Yep, here it is. Okay, so we got HGV, which is Hilton Grand Vacations Incorporated. So, let's add them to our portfolio and we will see each other in 3 months. I mean, for you it's going to be seconds, for me it's going to be 3 months so it's a bit like Interstellar. >> [music] >> It's April 2026 and it's time for the final changes in our portfolio before the 1 year experiment is over. So, [music] let's let the dice decide. Okay, so we have to change one stock and it will be ProShares UltraPro, which currently is around 26% up. And to find its replacement in the portfolio, let's use the little book that beats the market. Page number 4 >> The new ticker symbol is T H U and it is TDUS Equity Canadian Dollar Hedged Index ETF. It's something similar to the S&P 500 ETF. Okay, we are all set and since time flies when you're having fun, see you in a second and we will find out how well this sophisticated investment strategy performed. It's July 2026, so exactly 1 year after I started this experiment. So, let's see the results, but before we do that, I have a favor to ask of you. This video is not sponsored, but it is supported by all the people using Stock Investing Academy, a place that simplifies investing, that gives you everything you need as an investor and nothing you don't. And the best part, first month is completely free. So, you have plenty of time to explore all the features and decide is it a right fit for your investment style. The link is below the video. Now, let's see the results. So, these are the securities that we sold and if we just look at the returns, we can see that we are 1.8% up when it comes to Nuveen Quality Municipal Income Fund, 8.8% in iShares Holdings, 26.3% in ProShares Ultra Pro QQQ and 28.6% in Ring Energy. All in all, 16.1% in the sold securities. So, that is very nice. Now, let's look at what is actually left in our portfolio and it also looks really nice. The one big problem we can see is that we are down 61.4% in Urban Infrastructure Group and that is a big loss. We are down just 1.6% in ProShares UltraShort 20+ Years Treasury and half a percent down in Hera SpA. But everything else is up. Howard Hughes Holdings is up by 7.1% British American Tobacco by almost 22%. Then we have Hilton Grand Vacations up 16.6% TD Asset Management up but only 3.4%. Then we have Cohen and Steers up 12.2% Bonterra Energy up 37.5% that is really great. And our biggest holding PSG Financial Services which is up by an incredible 61%. So all in all we are up 9.77% when it comes to our positions that we actually have in our portfolio right now. I was expecting to lose money with this crazy strategy but so far so good. Now, let's take a look at the entire portfolio with the open and closed positions. We are up by 13.8% so from our $10,000 we now have $11,600. That is nice. We made some real money and that's incredible considering that it was all luck. But now let's benchmark this against VOO, so the S&P 500, and we can see that we underperformed the market. We are up 13.8% and the S&P is up 18.6% in the same time. We were doing so well, but just at the end we actually lost to the S&P 500. But honestly, 1 year is not really enough to draw any meaningful conclusions. So, uh maybe we should go into year two. And it is important to remember that the idea of this experiment was never to find the best stocks. It was to find out what happens when luck is your only strategy.
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