GRANDE SURPRESA COM OS BANCOS EM 2026...

On January 21, 2026, millions of Brazilians were shocked by the news. The central bank decreed the liquidation of WillBank, the digital arm, arm of Banco Master, which had already been liquidated. Then people ask, hey, aren't banks a safe investment? You guys at AGF even recommend that we invest in bank stocks. You might even be asking yourself these questions and seeing a financial institution disappear naturally creates discomfort. It brings a certain anxiety and raises a question that every investor asks themselves during times of crisis, is my money really safe? I'm here today to say that despite this scare, the Brazilian banking system remains one of the most solid and resilient in the world. But the Wheelbank and Bank on Master episodes leave valuable lessons that we can't ignore. What I want with this video is not to cause panic, but to bring clarity and, above all, to reassure you, the investor. I want to show you that it's perfectly possible to have very reliable investments, both in fixed income and in stocks, as long as you know how to separate the wheat from the chaff and obviously understand who is a real bank and who is just using that label to betray your capital? Yeah, but before we get into the details, I'd like to propose a challenge for you in the comments. This video discusses the financial market which is made of choices and risks. What's the most important warning sign you consider? The one that really makes you stop and think I absolutely don't want to take this risk? Let me know in the comments below and be sure to like and share this content That way the YouTube algorithm understands that you like this type of video. Now let's go. To begin, we need to understand that there's a huge difference between your bank and being a payment institution. The famous IPs . Many fintechs today are not banks from a regulatory standpoint . They present themselves as such, use the term bank in their name, and offer cards, but they operate under much more flexible rules no Ustad. There's no problem with you having accounts there. I'm not saying that's against it. But it's also very important to understand the differences to know exactly where you want to keep your money and the invest. Recently, as we saw in the federal police's hidden carbon operation in the government and the central bank realized that this greater flexibility in the regulation of fintechs was being used as a loophole for money laundering crimes. This is precisely because of the lack of visitors to data reporting that traditional banks have been doing for decades. Andre Esteves from BTG even said something I completely agree with. He called Brazil the Disneyland of fintech, arguing that if the service is the same and the risk is the same, the regulation should also be the same. And that's exactly what's changing. The central bank has started requiring institutions that don't have a banking license to stop using the word bank in their brands. They even have a short deadline to adapt or to seek this definitive banking license. That's why NewBank, for example, started a process to become a formal bank. For Roxino NewBank, this will mean a heavy increase in costs. Just to give you an idea, they will go from a 9% social contribution rate to 20%. In addition, of course, they will have to comply with Basel rules that require the bank to maintain a minimum level of equity capital for every real it lands. It's a much heavier and more expensive structure to maintain, but it's the price of the transparency and security that the system is now demanding. Another very important thing to understand is that smaller banks, again, can offer different risks than larger banks, especially when we think about fixed income investments. You go into the app and see a CDB, certificate of deposit from a big bank paying 95%, 100%, sometimes 105% of the CDI, interbank deposit certificate. You scroll down and see CDBs at 130% of the CDI, CDBs at 140% of the CDI. And what does the investor's brain do? It thinks, why would I accept 100% if I can get 140%? But in the financial market, as we know, there's no such thing as a free lunch. When someone is offering you something far above the norm, they're implicitly telling you something, I really need to raise this money. I'm having difficulty. A CDB's certificate of deposit is bank debt. You're lending to the bank. And small banks, medium-sized banks, those banks that are stretching the rope too far, often pay dearly because they need cash. And when an institution needs cash at any cost, this should serve as an immediate warning And this is where the master case became a practical lesson. There is no high return without a proportional risk. Write that down. The FGC, Credit Guarantee Fund, it does exist and it's very important, but it doesn't transform risky investments into conservative ones. It simply limits the size of the damage and even then, it doesn't prevent discomfort and up, period, without the money you were invested. So how do you protect yourself at that moment? Well, first you need to look at the bank's history, the history of its management, whether the governance, for example, is consistent, whether this bank has already gone through difficult cycles, whether it has a strong transparency. Finally, that's precisely where you start looking at indicators that the market looks at, credit rating, Basel, index recurring profit, loss history, operating time, size, portfolio, profile. All this is crucial so that you can make a more accurate decision and thus lessen the chances of holding into one of these investments that end up in the FGC exactly as it did with the CDBs from BancoMaster. Second, you need to analyze the conditions of that investment. Liquidity matters a lot. A CDB with daily liquidity usually pays less because you are buying flexibility. A CDB with a fixed maturity date pays more precisely because you need to be locked in until maturity And if something goes wrong along the way, you don't have an easy way out. Hence, for your emergency reserve or funds, you might need immediately the optimum. Course is to find a daily liquid instrument even if it yields a smaller return. Third, you understand indexation. Post-fixed linked to the CDI into the bank deposit certificate tends to be the simplest for the average investor. Prefixed and PCA plus typically carry the risk of mark the market if you sell early. And that's precisely where people enter thinking it's fixed income and therefore doesn't fluctuate only. To discover the hard way that it does fluctuate if you need to exit before maturity. Fourth, understand your objectives well with each investment. Many people buy a fixed income security just because they saw a good rate and then discover they need the money and then they enter. The worst possible scenario, which is selling halfway through under bad, conditions or getting stuck when they needed liquidity. This isn't the product's fault. It's a lack of alignment between the product and your objective. Now, on the other side of the counter, there's an investor who isn't just lending to the bank via CDBs to become a partner in the bank through shares. This in particular is my favorite part of this investment game because when you buy shares, you're implicitly saying, I trust that this company is well managed. that it has a resilient model and that it will be able to generate recurring, recurring, recurring profits for me. And that's where AGF strategy comes in. We invest in well-managed companies with a track record of execution in perennial and resilient sectors that can weather crises come off. They weather governments, interest rate cycles, headlines, and continue to generate cash. And why do large Brazilian banks generally enter this conversation with such force? Well, because a big bank in Brazil isn't simply big. It's an organism that has gone through decades of consolidation, very heavy regulation, capital requirements, constant oversight, a crisis, etc. The Brazilian banking sector has undergone a huge process of transformation and concentration over the last 30 years. This has resulted in institutions that have a very large-scale technology efficiency and a very high capacity to absorb shocks. And from the shareholders' point of view, this tends to become obvious a recurring thing. The big banks generally have the ability to price rescan, diversify their portfolio, and absorb defaults. They can also adjust provisioning, invest heavily in technology, cut costs whenever necessary, and end up Defending their margins much more effectively. Intensity. He's not immortal, just like nothing in this world, obviously, but he usually has a muscle that small banks don't have. And that's where a point that dividend investors like comes in, recurring profit with capital discipline and governance. What does all this generate? Potential for recurring and growing dividends in the future. Banks have historically been good dividend payers in Brazil. And whenever you're positioned in a solid institution that has a culture of shareholder remuneration and constant cash generation, you can have dual levers working in your favor, dividends trickling in all the time, and in the long term, stock up appreciation that follows the company's earnings generation. And that's the central point. Stocks follow profits. In the short term, the market makes noise, generates noise. In the long term, it obeys something that is fundamental. And I'm going to prove that to you with our GF platform. Look here at the x-ray of ITAP3 stock, ISU Unibanko Ordinary Shares. Ordinary Shares. I'm using it as an example, but all good Brazilian banks have numbers that we like to see. Let me start by saying this chart shows the stock's appreciation over time. This chart here covers the last five years, and look how... consistent the growth trajectory is even with some periods of price decline along the way sat real beleste. Throwing down a little further, you'll also find a history of the company's dividends. Sometimes it pays a little more, sometimes a little less, but it's a consistent payer. By the way, whenever you want to see all the information on prices, dividends, numbers, analyses, and news about companies, I invite you to check out the AGF app here via the QR code appearing on the screen or the link in the video description. Now what do I want to tell you by showing you all this? That by investing correctly, you can count on recurring dividend payments and significant stock appreciation month. The most traditional banks, well managed and with a good track record, are part of our strategy precisely because they can deliver all of this. Now, it's not enough to just say big banks are good and buy anything at any price. You have to look at management quality, efficiency, return on equity, their provision levels, etc., credit history, and the bank's overall strategic positioning in relation to the market. But if you compare that to the risk of a small issuer offering 140% of the CDI because they're desperate for funding, you're still in a better position. If you've made it this far in the video, leave a comment below. I'd like to better understand your portfolio today. Could you say with certainty which positions were chosen because they are truly solid and have a solid foundation and which were chosen because they were paying more than the market average? I want to read the comments and we'll answer them here for you.