CRAZINESS Incoming in the next 24 hours.. (Google Earnings)

Name: CRAZINESS Incoming in the next 24 hours.. (Google Earnings)
Uploaded: 2026-07-21
Channel: The Creative Investor
Description: Recomendações extraídas deste vídeo de The Creative Investor: ZETA, PATH, NOW, HUBS, MDB, SNOW, DDOG, BLZE, RCL, NCLH, CELH, BLMN, ABNB, HLT, NKE, LVS, UBER, WFC, HOOD, SOFI, PFE, ROOT, LMND, ROK, SYM, QCOM, MRVL, AMD, RBRK, ELF, SG, OSCR. Veja cada recomendação com preços e retornos acompanhados. Desempenho desde a publicação: +2.55%.

The Creative Investor

Analisado Ver no YouTube Solicitado Em 22 jul 2026

Retorno do vídeo: +2,55%
Chamadas: 32
Compra / Venda: 32 0
Publicado: 21 jul 2026

Recomendações

Entrada é o preço de fechamento do ativo na data de publicação. Atual é o último fechamento registrado.

01 ZETA NYSE COMPRAR +23,27%

Entrada $21,19 21 jul 2026

Atual $26,12 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$4,93

software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead.
02 PATH NYSE COMPRAR +16,28%

Entrada $12,04 21 jul 2026

Atual $14,00 06 ago 2026

Resultado +$1,96

software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead.
03 NOW NYSE COMPRAR +22,87%

Entrada $102,06 21 jul 2026

Atual $125,40 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$23,34

software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead.
04 HUBS NYSE COMPRAR -7,39%

Entrada $218,58 21 jul 2026

Atual $202,43 06 ago 2026

Resultado −$16,15

software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead.
05 MDB NASDAQ COMPRAR +28,17%

Entrada $307,65 21 jul 2026

Atual $394,32 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$86,67

software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead.
06 SNOW NYSE COMPRAR +19,60%

Entrada $271,73 21 jul 2026

Atual $325,00 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$53,27

software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead.
07 DDOG NASDAQ COMPRAR -7,71%

Entrada $254,79 21 jul 2026

Atual $235,14 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$19,65

software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead.
08 BLZE NASDAQ COMPRAR +34,35%

Entrada $13,48 21 jul 2026

Atual $18,11 06 ago 2026

Resultado +$4,63

software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead.
09 RCL NYSE COMPRAR +11,16%

Entrada $287,90 21 jul 2026

Atual $320,03 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$32,13

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
10 NCLH NYSE COMPRAR -0,41%

Entrada $19,45 21 jul 2026

Atual $19,37 06 ago 2026

Resultado −$0,08

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
11 CELH NASDAQ COMPRAR -11,42%

Entrada $28,02 21 jul 2026

Atual $24,82 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$3,20

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
12 BLMN NASDAQ COMPRAR +30,05%

Entrada $8,44 21 jul 2026

Atual $10,98 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$2,54

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
13 ABNB NASDAQ COMPRAR +20,83%

Entrada $144,10 21 jul 2026

Atual $174,11 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$30,01

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
14 HLT NYSE COMPRAR -0,61%

Entrada $323,94 21 jul 2026

Atual $321,98 06 ago 2026

Resultado −$1,96

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
15 NKE NYSE COMPRAR -2,05%

Entrada $42,96 21 jul 2026

Atual $42,08 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$0,88

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
16 LVS NYSE COMPRAR +1,41%

Entrada $45,47 21 jul 2026

Atual $46,11 06 ago 2026

Resultado +$0,64

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
17 UBER NYSE COMPRAR +4,47%

Entrada $71,55 21 jul 2026

Atual $74,75 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$3,20

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
18 WFC NYSE COMPRAR -0,17%

Entrada $87,75 21 jul 2026

Atual $87,60 06 ago 2026

Resultado −$0,15

Wells Fargo, Robin Hood SoFi Fizzer Root Lemonade Oscar, right? They all have their different levels of risk and reward. All of these stocks do. These are names I like.
19 HOOD NASDAQ COMPRAR -11,87%

Entrada $106,36 21 jul 2026

Atual $93,74 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$12,62

Wells Fargo, Robin Hood SoFi Fizzer Root Lemonade Oscar, right? They all have their different levels of risk and reward. All of these stocks do. These are names I like.
20 SOFI NASDAQ COMPRAR +4,22%

Entrada $17,64 21 jul 2026

Atual $18,39 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$0,75

Wells Fargo, Robin Hood SoFi Fizzer Root Lemonade Oscar, right? They all have their different levels of risk and reward. All of these stocks do. These are names I like.
21 PFE NYSE COMPRAR +5,73%

Entrada $24,94 21 jul 2026

Atual $26,37 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$1,43

Wells Fargo, Robin Hood SoFi Fizzer Root Lemonade Oscar, right? They all have their different levels of risk and reward. All of these stocks do. These are names I like.
22 ROOT NASDAQ COMPRAR -11,86%

Entrada $59,06 21 jul 2026

Atual $52,06 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$7,01

Wells Fargo, Robin Hood SoFi Fizzer Root Lemonade Oscar, right? They all have their different levels of risk and reward. All of these stocks do. These are names I like.
23 LMND NYSE COMPRAR -24,42%

Entrada $68,62 21 jul 2026

Atual $51,86 06 ago 2026

Resultado −$16,76

Wells Fargo, Robin Hood SoFi Fizzer Root Lemonade Oscar, right? They all have their different levels of risk and reward. All of these stocks do. These are names I like.
24 ROK NYSE COMPRAR -4,38%

Entrada $464,82 21 jul 2026

Atual $444,47 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$20,35

Tesla, Rockwell Automation, Symbotic, Zebra Technologies. Those are some of your robotics and automation plays that I think are going to be a lot more popular next year.
25 SYM NASDAQ COMPRAR -5,74%

Entrada $42,86 21 jul 2026

Atual $40,40 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$2,46

Tesla, Rockwell Automation, Symbotic, Zebra Technologies. Those are some of your robotics and automation plays that I think are going to be a lot more popular next year.
26 QCOM NASDAQ COMPRAR -3,95%

Entrada $173,50 21 jul 2026

Atual $166,64 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$6,86

I also like something like Qualcomm for AI wearables and Marll for data center connectivity.

Contexto I also like something like Qualcomm for AI wearables and Marll for data center connectivity. I also like AMD.
27 MRVL NASDAQ COMPRAR +4,49%

Entrada $207,96 21 jul 2026

Atual $217,29 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$9,33

I also like something like Qualcomm for AI wearables and Marll for data center connectivity.

Contexto I also like something like Qualcomm for AI wearables and Marll for data center connectivity. I also like AMD.
28 AMD NASDAQ COMPRAR -11,35%

Entrada $544,43 21 jul 2026

Atual $482,61 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$61,82

I also like AMD. AMD, you know, it's not killed by the law of large numbers. Yeah, expectations are high. Yeah, the stock is high. But if it does come down, I think that would be an attractive buy the dip opportunity.

Contexto I also like something like Qualcomm for AI wearables and Marll for data center connectivity. I also like AMD. AMD, you know, it's not killed by the law of large numbers. Yeah, expectations are high. Yeah, the stock is high. But if it does come down, I think that would be an attractive buy the dip opportunity.
29 RBRK NYSE COMPRAR +17,34%

Entrada $75,80 21 jul 2026

Atual $88,94 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$13,14

software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead.
30 ELF NYSE COMPRAR +21,62%

Entrada $79,90 21 jul 2026

Atual $97,18 07 ago 2026

Resultado +$17,28

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
31 SG NYSE COMPRAR -20,54%

Entrada $6,79 21 jul 2026

Atual $5,40 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$1,40

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand.

Contexto These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead.
32 OSCR NYSE COMPRAR -12,61%

Entrada $30,77 21 jul 2026

Atual $26,89 07 ago 2026

Resultado −$3,88

Wells Fargo, Robin Hood SoFi Fizzer Root Lemonade Oscar, right? They all have their different levels of risk and reward. All of these stocks do. These are names I like.

Transcrição Completa

Google is set to report earnings tomorrow in after hours. And depending on what happens with Google's stock, the markets are going to move big. This comes at a time in which Wall Street is starting to punish the negative free cash flow numbers that we're seeing from hyperscalers. This year alone, you're expected to be negative50 to hundred billion dollars of free cash flow. And next year, that number is expected to rise to a staggering 350 billion. Does Google spend more on capex than expected? And does Google's stock go up or down? That's going to be critical for AI stocks and the broader markets. This also comes at a time in which momentum has really gotten destroyed outside of the last two days of trading or so. This was the worst draw down for the Morgan Stanley momentum index in a two-week period you've ever seen. you were down 35% in precisely 17 days. Well, Google is going to drive the next move for markets. Ladies and gentlemen, in today's episode, we are going to break down what your expectations are for Google's earnings, how important this could be for the broader markets and for the AI trade itself, and where are the opportunities. At the end of the day, we're trying to make money. I will also share with you guys the technical setup for this market because yeah, the technicals alone tell you that the markets are going to move big on Google earnings. The only thing that I ask you guys to do is hit that like button for the YouTube algorithm because everyone needs to hear this information ahead of tomorrow's report and subscribe to the channel if you guys find value out of today's episode or at the very least perspective. See what you guys are going to notice tomorrow is Google's earnings are going to be phenomenal. They're going to be incredible. That's not the problem right now. That's not why Microsoft and Google and Oracle and Amazon and all of your hyperscalers are down so much from highs. The problem is in simplest layman's terms possible, the spending, the capex spending is outpacing the ROI generated from the spending. You can see here the aggregate capital expenditures for the top five hyperscalers Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle are tracking towards about 700 to 750 billion this year. 75% of the spending is directly allocated to AI infrastructure like GPUs, networking, and data centers. But you're only bringing in about 30 to 37 billion worth of AI infrastructure revenue. This is about a 9 to 10% relative yield to upfront AI investments. This indicates a elongated multi-year payback period that stretches well beyond traditional software product cycles. This means that AI capex has surged from roughly 33% of operating cash flow in 2023 to over 93% today, completely draining traditional free cash flow margin. And you can actually see from this image on screen, by the end of this year, hyperscalers are going to spend all of the money that they bring in plus an additional 50 to 100 billion this year. But for next year, you're expecting free cash flow will be negative 300 to $350 billion. And Google is specifically so important because their previous AI capex guidance for this year for spending was between 180 and 190 billion. I think that's going to go up to about 200 billion tomorrow. But most brokerages are expecting Google's going to spend between 300 and $350 billion of capex next year. That would be a 50 to 75% jump. Google's going to have to raise a lot of debt and sell potentially a lot of stock to fund that roadmap. But all of your hyperscalers are expected to spend a lot more next year. Amazon as well expected to spend about $200 billion this year, expected to spend about $300 billion next year. Again, Google at I would say about 200 billion for this year, expected to spend between 300 and 350 billion next year. Microsoft expected to be at about 190 billion for this year. They're expected to spend 250 billion plus next year. Oracle is actually expected to slow down spending a little bit on the low side at about 67.5 billion to the high side of 85 billion next year. And Tesla is expected to slow down spending a little bit as well. So Google, they are expected to be the biggest spender for capex next year. So that's why Google's so important. If they indicate a slowdown, that's going to be bad for AI stocks. If they indicate that, hey, we're going to continue to spend like we're drunk, figuratively speaking, that's going to be really good for AI stocks. And it's not even about this year's numbers. Wall Street's trying to figure out how sustainable is the capex trade. Is Google going to spend 350 billion next year? Are they going to spend 600 billion the year after that? If you're buying AI stocks right now, that's what you are betting on. And I do have my doubts that the spending will slow down. And we will talk about that in just a few minutes. But here's the other problem with the spending as hyperscalers free cash flow is going negative. That's putting pressure on their stock. Because from a fundamental perspective, if you think about a PE multiple, PE multiples are really just a function of how cyclical is the business, how capital intensive is the business, how much debt does the business have, who is the management team, right? For most of these metrics, the the PE multiple should be contracting. So, it's no surprise that Meta's PE and all of their pees really have fallen a lot. It It should happen, right? It says here, "Capital intensity ratios at firms like Microsoft and Oracle are hovering between 45 and 57%. These metrics mirror capital utility providers rather than traditional high margin tech models." So, as these companies are deploying and building massive data centers, there's going to be a lower PE multiple attached to that. But on top of that, hyperscalers are using external debt markets to avoid putting a lot of debt on their balance sheet. So all of the hyperscalers have more debt than it looks like, right? Because they're using private credit loans and things like that to finance this buildout. That doesn't put debt on the balance sheet, but it turns into a massive operating expense that will pressure profit margins down the line. So one, I think we have to be very careful right now saying that, oh my gosh, Meta has always traded at a 25 to 30 times forward PE at at a 18 times forward PE. The stock is cheap. No, things have fundamentally changed with the common denominator, which is the PE multiple, right? They are becoming more cyclical, more capital intensive, lower margin over time outside of any, you know, wild success from an AI product, which who knows, they all could have success. Some are going to win more than others, but at the end of the day, valuations should be lower. So, don't fight that aspect of it. But the main problem is as cash flows go even more negative, as these businesses become more cyclical, more sensitive to, you know, the AI cycle, as they become more capital intensive and, you know, bring on more debt, the PE multiples fall. So, Wall Street, they don't want to own these stocks as they are taking on more and more debt as they are becoming really lower quality assets at the end of the day. So, their stocks are falling. They're spending more, which private credit, private capital, venturebacked, you know, companies, they are okay giving out money to companies in which their stock is going up. It becomes a lot harder to do so as your stock declines. Like Oracle for an example. Do you think it's easier or harder for Oracle to raise money as the stock is $126 per share down from all-time highs about 63%. You think it's harder or easier for Oracle to raise money? It's a lot harder today than it was a year ago. why the stock has come down. The company's putting up record numbers. That's not the problem. The problem is the spending. And this will be an even bigger problem for the AI trade as a whole if Google sells off after earnings. if they specifically spend more and sell off after earnings or Microsoft or Meta or Amazon in which I don't think we're going back into a market environment where spending more causes stocks to go up, right? If Google comes out and they spend more or indicate they're going to spend more, the stock's going to fall. EPS isn't going to save you. Revenue is not going to save you. It's all about the spending. So EPS for Google tomorrow is expected about $2.86. Total revenue expected at about 116 billion. EPS would be growing 24% year-over-year and total revenue expected to grow about 21% year-over-year. Google's cloud revenue expected to hit 22.8 billion, up 63 to 67% and their operating margin is is expected to go up about 3 percentage points. But again, they're going to come out with even better numbers than that. They're going to kill it. But what matters is the spending. Because as of now, it's not like you're seeing 20 30% return on investment on this infrastructure buildout. You're seeing 9 to 10% return on investment from this infrastructure buildout. It's not it's not like these are tech companies anymore. They're really infrastructure companies with those kind of returns. At this rate, it'll take 10 years for these companies to get back their initial investment for the investment that they're making today, which if it's true that GPUs only have a, you know, lifespan of about five to six years, well, there's fourish years where uh you kind of have to replace all of the GPUs anyway. So it it's just not a very good scenario if you're a legacy Google investor and you're watching them do what they're doing. Now yes, ideally this return on investment is going to go from 9 to 10% to 30%. The economics would make a lot more sense, but compute costs are expected to fall 90% per year for the next three years. You're gonna have to see some massive compute demands. You need robotics. You need mass enterprise adoption of AI which are not coming for still a couple of years. So I think the risk is right now that Google might indicate that they're going to moderate spending that spending could plateau again. Not for this year. Spending is going to go up for this year for next year. If Google spends 220 billion this year and they say, "Yep, spending is going to go up a little bit next year, but not that much." Maybe it comes in at 250, 260 billion, 270 billion. Hell, 280 billion. Markets are expecting between 300 and 350 billion. AI stocks are probably priced for 400 billion. That could be a disappointment for AI stocks if Google paints us that picture. Now ultimately at the end of the day I don't know what's going to happen but I don't like the riskreward of AI stocks at this moment and I don't particularly like the riskreward of hyperscalers as well because I don't know what they're going to do. I don't know if they're going to spend more. I think they will probably slow down but if they spend more their stocks are going to get crushed. Google's going to fall 10 15% tomorrow if they indicate that they're going to double down on capex next year. Now, Google already told us that we should expect 2027 capex to significantly increase compared to the already elevated 2026 baseline. So, any changes would be a big surprise and potentially Google's going to continue to spend more. That's why you don't want to just go off of only Google tomorrow. You're also going to have Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon reporting earnings next week. And that's going to tie the bigger capex story back together. Now, I'm going to share with you guys what Google is pricing in for earnings and teach you how to calculate this for yourself on any stock that is going to report earnings or it doesn't have to be just earnings. You can do this for a one month time horizon or whatever. Whenever you're looking to buy an option, you should always do this to get a sense of what the markets are pricing in. So, what you want to do is you want to look at whatever expiration it is. I'm looking at July 24th. You want to add the at the money put and call together. So the 350 put is going for $11.35. The 350 call is going for $9.70. If you add these two together, you're pricing in a $21 move, $215. You want to divide that by the current share price of Google and you are left with 0.0 06. You're expecting a 6% move for Google stock by this Friday. That's actually not that much. Google can move 10 plus% on earnings. So, if you're buying a put, you're buying a call, you need Google to at least move over 6%. And I know it's not that black and white to make money with options, but that's the bare minimum move that you need to see. And honestly, I think Google could move 10% up or down just depending on what the capex numbers look like. But let me bottom line this for you before I share with you some of the other opportunities out there in markets that I do think have a much better riskreward than hyperscalers or AI stocks. First off, if capex goes up more than expected or is indicated to go up more than expected next year, keep in mind Google already told us capex is going to go up significantly next year. We already expect that. You need something even more than that to drive upside, right? So, if capex goes up more than expected or is indicated to, Mag 7 sells off. Google's going to sell off tomorrow. No matter what their numbers are looking like, the rotation trade is stalled in the near term. AI stocks will go up. The bar is pretty high, but it's not impossible that that that could happen. If capex is signaled to slow down, or maybe they say, "Look, we're going to moderate a little bit next year. We're not going to have to raise significantly. Max 7's going to go up. Google's going to go up 10 15%. I mean, look at Coinbase today. Coinbase is up 12%. This is because Coinbase said today they have successfully cut their AI spending by nearly 50% while simultaneously increasing its token usage. So yeah, if capex is signaled to slow down, Mag 7 is going to go up a lot, Google's going to go up a lot, AI stocks are going to go down, and the rotation trade will kick into high gear as people look for these other opportunities outside of the AI trade. What's also very interesting about right now is retail buying activity has collapsed, right? single stock buying of from retail investors is sitting at levels last seen since like the start of the pandemic, right? You really haven't seen this in the last 5 years. It is collapsed. It is GG's for retail investors. They've kind of given up on this market. If you look at kind of draw a rough line across, I mean, you're literally back to where you were at the start of the pandemic. So that's why I think there can be so many opportunities outside of the areas that big money is crowding into because big money is crowding into pretty much only AI stocks right now. And yes, I do think there are opportunities still in AI stocks, especially if they do fall out of favor a little bit. But I think other areas are going to have better returns like software, Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? Those are names that I think are going to really outperform both hyperscalers and AI stocks going ahead. Cyclicals, this theme around the consumer getting stronger and or travel, right? Co changed the world, you know, in in different ways, but it really changed people's perspective on life and traveling. People want to travel. If the consumer gets stronger, that's going to be turbocharged. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green Airbnb Hilton Tesla Nike Las Vegas Sands, and Uber. These are stocks that either benefit from the consumer getting stronger or the consumer getting stronger and the travel demand. So, I think that's like a a you know, double positive. Something like Uber benefits from a stronger consumer. It benefits from a stronger consumer that also likes to travel. And I don't think that's going away anytime soon. And I think it's a theme that will outperform going ahead. Financials, Wells Fargo, Robin Hood SoFi Fizzer Root Lemonade Oscar, right? They all have their different levels of risk and reward. All of these stocks do. These are names I like. Tesla, Rockwell Automation, Symbotic, Zebra Technologies. Those are some of your robotics and automation plays that I think are going to be a lot more popular next year. Energy. I like nuclear, but I actually I'm starting to like solar a lot more, especially heading into the midterms because nuclear takes a long time to actually become a feasible option to power, you know, data centers. It's going to take like 10 years for a lot of these companies to, you know, materially deploy nuclear. But solar can be deployed quickly. And I think Trump might be a little bit more solar friendly versus like wind turbines or other things. And then obviously Democrats love green energy. So I think solar could be a very interesting play um in regards to AI and fulfilling energy needs over the next couple of years potentially. I also like something like Qualcomm for AI wearables and Marll for data center connectivity. I also like AMD. AMD, you know, it's not killed by the law of large numbers. Yeah, expectations are high. Yeah, the stock is high. But if it does come down, I think that would be an attractive buy the dip opportunity. I don't know if you know if it's going to come down, but you come down to like 380, 370, the 100 day moving average, yeah, I think AMD would be an attractive pickup, let alone the 200 day moving average around 300. I actually think that even if we only spend 900 billion in capex for next year, if capex moderately goes up next year, yeah, AI stocks are not going to love that, but some like AMD might actually command a much greater total number next year than they did this year or something like Marll or something like Qualcomm, right? um some of these companies GPUs could you could actually sell more GPUs with uh CFIX number that doesn't go up as much as expected and I know that gets a little complicating so we will save that explanation for a different day. Bottom line here, I don't know what's going to happen for Google earnings tomorrow, but if I look at the S&P, you are in this bull flag pattern. You've actually just broken out above this downtrending trend line. So, it looks like tomorrow is going to be a big move for the S&P and also for the NASDAQ. You did retake the uptrending trend line here. The S&P looks a lot better than the NASDAQ. The S&P is um about a half of 1% above its 20-day moving average. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, is about almost 1% below its 20-day moving average. And the the the NASDAQ, the Triple Q's are, you know, 1.3% below their 50-day moving average. So structurally speaking, heading into earning season, AI has really underperformed versus the S&P. So from a te technical perspective, you would say the rotation trade, the hyperscalers are going to spend less than expected kind of idea is where big money is is kind of positioning at this point. But again, at the end of the day, I don't know what's going to happen. Google might indicate that they're going to spend even more You know, that's a possibility in the short term. I think that means Google falls 10 to 15% tomorrow. I think that means AI stocks go up, right? If Google signals they're going to moderate spending, Google's going to go up 10 to 15% tomorrow and AI stocks are going to come down violently. I don't know what's going to happen, but I think it's going to be one or the other. So, a very interesting setup that we have right now. Let me know your thoughts on all of this down below in the comment section. Hit the like button. Subscribe to the channel if you guys find value or perspective out of today's episode. Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next

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