A TALE OF TWO HALVES: Payne explains why markets could shift in the second half of 2026

MANHATTAN SO I WAS A WEIRD KIND OF KID. [LAUGHTER] GOOD AFTERNOON, I AM CHARLES PAYNE, THIS IS MAKING MONEY. THE SESSIOION WE'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR, HERE'S MY TAKE BECAUSE FIRST OF ALL, COMING INTO THE WEEK, A TALE OF TWO HALVES, YESTERDAY AND A QUARTER TODAY A YEAR TO DATE, MAJOR DIFFERENCES, THE RED IS STARTING TO MAKE A LOT OF PEOPLE CONCERNED. OBVIOUSLY HAVE P PARTICULARLY EMERGING MARKETS. EVERYONE TALKED ABOUT THIS COMING INTO THE YEAR HOW GREAT, STILL NOT BAD, BUT QUARTER TO DATE, WHICH IS REALLY MONTH TO DATE, IT'S A HUGE MOVE AND TO BE FRANK, THE MIDDLE NAMES HAVE TO TELL YOU AND YOUR FOLIO, THIS UNMITIGATED DISASTERS SO THIS BRINGS ME TO THE CONUNDRUM, IT'S FOR ALL INVESTORS TO BE HONEST, PARTICULARLY MAINSTREAM INVESTORS, PROFESSIONALS GET PAID EVEN WHEN THEY MISS BIG MOVES OR LOSE BIG MONEY, THEY STILL GET PAID SO I'VE GOT AN APPROACH I WOULD LIKE TO SHARE WITH INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS AND IT INCORPORATES THREE PILLARS, TECHNICAL AND BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS. IN A PERFECT WORLD, THE WAITING WOULD BE EVEN ACROSS THE BOARD, BUT THIS IS WHAT YOU HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT AND WHY YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND, THIS IS ONE OF THESE KIDS IN KOREA GOING CRAZY OVER THERE STOCK MARKET, HE USED A LOT OF MARGIN, BUT HE WAS UP 15 FOLD. ABSOLUTELY AMAZING AND OF COURSE HE'S LOSING OUT. WHY? THEY ARE UNWINDING THE LEVERAGE, LEVERAGE HAS COME DOWN TREMENDOUSLY IN THE SPRING THERE MARKET DOWN TREMENDOUSLY AND ON THE FLIPSIDE IS FUNDAMENTALS SO WE SEEK WHAT'S HAPPENING, BUT THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE PHENOMENAL SO EXPORT VALUE OF TWO $12 BILLION, 12 BILLING DOLLARS OF ALMOST FOUR 100% FROM A YEAR AGO, IT'S PHENOMENAL. WE SEE THIS AND THINK THE STOCKS SHOULD BE DONE, ABSOLUTELY NOT. THIS MONTH REPORTED PRICES YET ANOTHER MILESTONE SO THESE ARE NOT THINGS ASSOCIATED WITH MARKETS FALLING APART, IT SHOULDN'T BE ASSOCIATED WITH MARKETS FALLING APART SO FUNDAMENTALLY, USUALLY 65% OF MY DECISION-MAKING, TECHNICALS 25%. WHEN CALL EMOTIONS, ANOTHER 10% THAT'S COMPLETELY AROUND IN THIS MARKET. RIGHT NOW IT'S ALL EMOTIONS. HERE'S WHAT'S INTERESTING, WE TALK ABOUT THIS BIG NEWS, THIS K-3, ONE COLUMN, I USED THAT WE DIDN'T REALLY TALK ABOUT IS HOW MUCH MORE DEMAND THERE WILL BE FOR SEMICONDUCTORS, ABSOLUTELY PHENOMENAL. THEY SUCK UP ALL KINDS OF ENERGY AND POWER AND THEY NEED ALL THE RESOURCES SO THE FUNDAMENTAL STORY HAS GOT EVEN BETTER SO EMOTIONS ARE DRIVING IT LOWERED AND HOW DO YOU REVERSE THAT?T? THIS IS WHERE I GO BACK TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR A MOMENT. WE BROKE THE 50 DAY MOVING THEY AVERAGE ON THE DOWNSIDE AND ORBITAL CHARTS LOOK LIKE THIS, THIS IS SEMICONDUCTORS, THE NASDAQ 100, MOMENTUM, ALL CHARTS ARE SIMILAR BELOW 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE AND ALL MADE A SERIES OF LOWER LOWS AND HIGHER HIGHS AND IF WE CAN CLOSE ABOVE THE BLUE LINE HERE ON THE CLOSING BASIS, I THINK YOU WILL SEE HOT MONEY CROWD OR INTO THESE STOCKS QUICKLY. OF COURSE, HERE'S THE THING, IF YOUR LONG-TERM WITH US, YOU DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT IT THE STREET TAKES A BIFURCATED YOU AND SOME BELIEVE ARISTOTLE METHOD, I'M SUPPOSED TO BE WORKING OVER THERE DOING THIS READ. [LAUGHTER] TWO THINGS WHEN IT COMES TO THE CROWDS. THE MULTITUDE ARISTOTLE AND OF