This Chart Just Exposed The Truth About The AI Trade..

All right, what's up everybody and welcome back to another Thursday here in the stock market. Well, earlier this morning I was doing a bit of analysis on the AI trade as a whole looking at technicals, looking at fundamentals, looking at social data, looking at sentiment metrics. So, just to try to get some additional perspective of where I think we are in this whole AI trade because if I'm going to be honest with you all, the last few weeks have been somewhat confusing. You know, and I think many of you can agree. You got one side of people saying that we are just in a correction in the AI trade and it's going to end over the next few weeks and we're going to see all your major players running back up to all-time highs and giving us some juicy gains again. On the other side, you have people who are saying that the bubble has now officially popped and that AI is never going to be what it once was and people need to just get out now and rotate into the Magnificent Seven or some other things, right? And there's been a lot of back and forth, a lot of ping-ponging of opinions and it can kind of jumble the brain a bit. And again, so this morning I was just doing some extra analysis to try to gain some additional perspective to see where I fall in those groups, right? Where do I think that we are here? Well, when I was doing that analysis, I found myself spending a lot of time looking at the social metrics behind the AI trade. Whether it was looking at Nvidia or Micron or AMD or just looking at the AI stock metrics as a whole. And honestly, while I was doing my analysis, I probably spent about 30 to 45 minutes looking at these charts and by the end of this session of looking at these social metrics, it definitely pushed me in one direction. It made me go, "You know what? This is where I think we are based on this data." And so, because this was a very insightful thing for me, what I wanted to do in today's video for you all is just walk you through the things that I saw, right? What did I see when I looked at some of the social metrics and what does it mean, at least in my opinion, for where we are in this AI trade and how does that relate to stocks like Nvidia or AMD or Micron that have been pulling back for the next few weeks? So, this will be a bit of a different video today as we're not going to spend a ton of time on the charts or talking about the news, but hopefully you still do find it valuable. So, with that in mind, let's go ahead and let's jump in and let me kind of set the set the scene a little bit, okay? So, what I'm going to be focusing in on today in today's video is Google Trends. And Google Trends is very simple. It's just a a tool that you can use to see what people are searching on in Google or any Google or related products. Now, the reason why I use this so much is because you have to think about it, right? The AI wave is one that is absolutely fueled by retail sentiment and retail excitement. Sure, there's a ton of institutional investment, and the majority of the liquidity is from institutions, but the hype and the excitement is being fueled by retail. And so, when retail is fueling something, guess what they're doing? They're looking it up. They're searching it. They're watching YouTube videos about it. They want to know more about it. And you can see that reflected by these charts, right? So, what this blue line does is it represents how many people have just been Googling the phrase AI stocks, okay? So, this is just the AI stocks phrase. And what you can see is that back in 2021, 2022, no one really cared about AI stocks. But then, the momentum started to gain in '23, '24, '25, and '26. And what you can see is that it absolutely started ramping up. And so, there is a direct correlation with retail sentiment and stock prices. Not saying that retail sentiment causes prices to go up, but they're definitely correlated. And the same thing goes for individual stocks. On the screen right now, I have Nvidia, which is the blue line, Micron, which is the red line down there, and AMD, which is the yellow line. And again, you can see in their most hyped-up and excited moments, those are the moments in which their prices have performed some of the best. And so, all in all, again, this is what we're going to be looking at today, and there's some very interesting things going on here, especially within the last 30 days, okay? So, let's start off with AI stocks, okay? Let's start off with the search term AI stocks as a whole. So, what we can see is that AI stocks as a term didn't really gain much traction until 2023. And if we do zoom out all the way to 2004 to now, you can see there really wasn't anything in there. I mean, some people kind of popped up and asked about it back in 2020, and maybe some people kind of heard about this whole AI thing at the end of 2020, but again, it really wasn't something that was relevant until we started to see the end of 2022, the beginning of 2023 roll around. Now, at this time, of course, the idea that these chips were going to, of course, generate a ton of revenue and a ton of sales, and it was going to bump up the valuations of these semiconductors, this is when it started to become something of interest. And we saw the general search term go up to a rating of a six in the modern day, which I'll explain in a little while. Well, it stayed there for the majority of 2024 uh 2023. It climbed a little bit into 2024 before pulling back. And remember, we were in a bear market both in crypto and the stock market kind of in 2022 and 2023. So, things were just flat in general, but you can definitely see that some some interest was growing, right? Well, taking it into 2025, this is when things started to shift a little bit, right? Because in the beginning of 2025, we started to see some of these AI stocks actually gaining momentum as we started to see the revenue and the numbers coming in. And by the time that we saw May May to June of 2025, this is when things really started to go absolutely nuts. And for example, if we look at it, say, okay, May 2025, and we go compare Nvidia stock to that time, you can see exactly what was happening at that time. This is when things started to go absolutely nuts for the first time. Because, yeah, Nvidia had done a good job previously. You know, 2024 was a good year for Nvidia. They already had some some good numbers coming in. And of course, this was pre-split, I believe. But all in all, yeah, the split was right back there. But all in all, you know, 2024 was an okay year. But 2025 is the year that made everyone go, "Oh my goodness, we need to get into this thing." And you can see that correlation whenever you look at the way in which AI stocks as a whole have performed. This was the big boom moment. This is when everyone started realizing, "Oh my goodness, like, this whole AI thing might really be the next narrative, might be the next wave, it might be the thing that gets us out of the situation that we've been in." So, things pop off, and they start going real good throughout 2025, cooling down into 2026. And then naturally, 2026 has been the year for AI stocks within reaching absolute new highs by May of 2026. So, this peak between April and May, we saw the the phrase or the search term AI stocks peak in May of 2026. Well, since May of 2026, things have changed and they've started to change incredibly quickly. What you can see is that over the last month, we have seen sentiment fall or Google search volume fall by roughly 37% 1/3 capitulation just within the span of a month. And if you actually look at the size of this pullback in terms of any other pullbacks, this is the biggest loss of retail sentiment that the AI market has had ever. There has not been another moment comparatively if you look at it on based on not in terms of percentages, but actual full volume, this is the largest pullback within a 1-month span that the AI market has ever seen before. Going from a 100 rating, which is the highest that it has been in history, currently down to a 63. Matter of fact, we are now at a level in which we've not been to since whenever the whole uh Iran conflict started when everyone started getting scared. Everyone was looking up that and look not looking up AI. And it seems as if we are on trajectory to potentially erase all of the uh the the search volume and the search sentiment that we've gotten in 2026 if this continues for just another two to three weeks. So, again, where we are right now when it comes to AI stocks as a phrase is the lowest that it's been. Now, it's not just AI stocks. For example, if we just look up AI in general, what you can see is AI as a whole is pulling back. As a matter of fact, we have nearly erased all of the search volume in 2026 for the phrase AI, meaning that people are just getting less and less interested in AI as a whole and that is also translating to AI stocks as well. Now, it's not just a general trend. It's the individual stocks themselves, too. Because if we look at what is happening with Nvidia, the blue line, AMD, the yellow line, and Micron, the red line. Although they have done a really good job and gaining traction in 2026. You know, maybe Nvidia isn't at the same level that it was back in 2024 because this was like the AI stock everyone was talking about. It still has done a really good job in 2026 at gaining traction. So is AMD, so is Micron. What you can see though is that over the last 30 days, which are represented by the dotted lines, we have seen some of the largest capitulations in these stocks search volume that we've ever seen before. And actually what's interesting is that there is a world in which Nvidia search volume is about to fall lower than AMD search volume, which is insane because if you take us back to 2024, sure some people talked about AMD, but there was a five times difference between AMD and Nvidia. You see Nvidia was at 100 and AMD was at 20. There was a five times difference between the two. And I mean that is just absolutely massive. That is a wild spread. And the fact that as time has gone on, AMD is starting to clear that gap between itself and Nvidia, it just goes to show the difference in price performance and how much more people are becoming excited about AMD than Nvidia. But one way or another, what we can see is that they are all in massive capitulations right now. This is the biggest capitulation that Micron has ever seen before by a far. This is the second or third largest capitulation that AMD has seen before by a far. And this is now currently the third largest capitulation that Nvidia has seen by a far, only behind these two right here. And so, all in all, the whole point of this first segment of the video is to bring it to your attention that we are now seeing the largest pullbacks in social sentiment that we have seen in years when it comes to AI stocks. Now, the question that some of you are going to have is, "Okay, what does that mean? Like is this a bad thing?" And I think that's what a lot of you are going to say, "Well, this is a bad thing. People are leaving. People are scared. No, people aren't looking up these things anymore. They're not as interested in these things anymore." Is that a bad thing? And on the surface it sounds bad, right? And that I think that makes a lot of sense because I could say, this is not how I feel, but I could say guys, the AI trade has been fueled by retail hype and retail excitement. And if retail's not excited about it anymore, retail's going to leave and they're going to go to something else and boost the excitement there, and that's going to kill the gains from AI and you're not going to see it as parabolic anymore. I could say that. Because on the surface, that is what your gut would say. I think that's what you would assume is the truth. But through my 7 years in the market, which granted, or I guess 8 years now that I'm 25. Through my 8 years in the market, which again, granted is not a very long time of being a stock investor. One thing that I can confidently say is that rarely rarely is it true that when retail is leaving, when retail investors aren't paying attention to something anymore, that's a bad thing. That means that like you're you're going to crash even more. Let me just give you an example to make this simple, okay? So, when I go to the crypto market, as as many of you know, I'm in the stock market, I'm in the crypto market. I have a crypto channel, I have a stock channel. When I look at the crypto market, you know what has almost always been a signal that the bottom of a bear market has like has been in or getting close, it's when retail leaves. And that is not only been true for crypto, but that's been true for almost all of my investments. When I see retail investors stop caring about something, that's often times when the bottom is in. Because it's like an opposite effect. You know the scariest time to be invested into something like AI or crypto or high growth or whatever it may be, is when everyone's talking about it. Think about it, right? If everyone is talking about name something, AMD. And AMD is being looked up and searched and watched more than it has ever been before. The reality is that that's usually when the top is in. The top usually happens when everyone is looking up something. They're searching up something. They're excited about something. And so, if the opposite would be true, which it is true, the bottom would be when people aren't searching for things. When they're not looking things up, when they're not excited about something. So, although your gut may originally go, "Oh, that's bad for the space." I actually look at it and say, "Oh, that actually might be good for the space." That we are seeing people leaving in droves, and retail is leaving in droves, because historically speaking, if you compare where we are in moments in which people stop caring, it's usually close to some sort of bottom. And so, all in all, although it may look scary to see, you know, people aren't searching for Nvidia, they're not searching for AMD, they're not searching for their stocks, they don't care as much anymore. History has shown that that could be a good sign. Now, let's talk about some of the more objective reasons, because that's just opinion, right? Let's talk about some of the more objective reasons as to why people leaving in droves at a faster rate than they've basically ever have before could also signal that this correction that we're in right now may end sooner than people think, because that is my opinion here, and I'll dive into that more in a second. Well, think about it. If retail is leaving, it means retail has sold. Because when someone is questioning if they're going to sell, if someone who's maybe like a weak hands, a paper hands, I hate that term, but it's the only way to kind of explain what I mean. If someone is a paper hands, a lot of research, a lot of panic goes in before you sell, right? If someone was going to say sell their AMD stock, or sell their Micron stock, or whatever it may be, what you'll notice is that they're Before they sell, they're not going to not look up anything. No, they're going to be looking up AMD stock price, AMD stock price prediction, um AMD analyst estimates, AMD news, AMD update. They're going to just be spamming AMD AMD AMD, because they're panicking like, "Oh, something will convince me not to sell it. Something will convince me not to sell it." And then eventually nothing does, because their emotions are too strong, and then they sell it. And the second that they sell it, what you'll notice is they'll stop looking it up. They can't take it anymore, right? They'll stop looking it up, they don't want anything to do with it. They'll come back to it in a few months. That's the mentality that a lot of people have. I'll sell it now and look at it again in a few months. And they take some time away and maybe they'll check in on it every now and then to see if they regret selling or not, but often times they stop looking it up. And so in the moment in which you start to see people stop looking it up, often times that represents that the people who are going to panic sell, who are going to sell out of emotion, they've sold already. They've gotten out already. And when that sell pressure starts to deplete, when that sell sell pressure starts to diminish, historically it makes it easier for the buyers to step in and start pushing those prices back up. And so it's not almost so much that it's just a subjective thing. Objectively speaking, when you see retail exiting, the sell pressure does decline, which makes it easier for prices to go up. And so if I go back to the crypto example from earlier, it's a very similar situation. When you're in a bear market in crypto, for example, and the reason I compare the two is cuz they're both highly volatile and emotional. But when you're in a crypto bear market, you'll see a lot of people looking up. That search volume actually does perform decently well in bear markets at first, because so many people are like, "Crypto price prediction, Bitcoin price prediction, Ethereum price prediction, Bitcoin price estimates, when will the bear market end?" All of these sorts of things, right? And then they just get out. And then they go find something else to do. And then search volume drops, because their selling has ended. They've done they've been done selling. So it's like sell pressure drops to a low, search volume drops to a low. And then boom, that is when it starts to bottom. Now, it's not always immediate. I'm not saying that it immediately creates a bottom, but history has shown that you're getting close to one. It's just again the opposite effect of high search volume. And so when I look at this, it it does actually make me feel good. It makes me go, "You know what? This pullback that we've been seeing in the AI space might not last as long as people think." I think a lot of people look at a Micron, for example, and they're expecting it to look like this. There are many people many people out there who are expecting it to look like this. A slow bleed, a slow death, Micron coming back down to 100, 200, 300 dollars, and the AI trade as a whole just fizzling out and a new narrative beginning or you know AMD. Many people are saying that this is distribution that is going to lead AMD back down to say 220 bucks, 250 bucks, 70% correction and the AI trade is probably over or same thing goes for Nvidia. Nvidia is going to roll over, come all the way back down, take out the April low and that is going to be the signal that Nvidia is going into a bit of a bear market. And although that is possible, I'm not going to sit here and pretend like that's not possible because we are in corrective territory. I don't think that's the more probable outcome. I think what are the odds that retail has it right? That's the thing that I come back to. What are the odds that retail is correct? Because retail is usually not correct. Retail is almost never correct. When was everyone the most excited about Nvidia? May. When was everyone the most excited about Micron? June. When was everyone the most excited about AMD? June. So May or June? What was going on back then? They were peaking. So when they were all peaking it's when they were all peaking. This is when every all retail investors were excited about them calling for Micron to 2,000, calling for AMD to you know 1,000, calling for Nvidia to 800. I mean this is when everyone was the most excited. And they were wrong. That was the time to be the most skeptical. That was the time to be the most nervous. If you actually watch my channel, you know that when Nvidia peaked at 237 I was at 200 I missed it. I missed it a little bit. I was at 226 to 230 right here and I said, "Hey guys, I think now we are in the be careful moment cuz while everyone's super hyped and excited about Nvidia and Nvidia video YouTube videos are getting 50 to 100,000 views a piece that's when the most risk is here. And so just like people were wrong in all of their excitement back here in the short term what are the odds that they're right now? What are the odds that retail exits and it just continues to crash and the AI trade ends and Micron continues to dump down to 200 bucks and AMD continues to dump down to 250 bucks. What are the odds that they're right? When is retail ever right? That's almost a better question. Not asking when What are the odds that they're right? The Yeah, the better question is when are When is retail ever right? When is general retail sentiment ever right? It's almost never right. And so when I look at the fact that we're seeing these stocks correcting, maybe not so much in AMD but a Micron where, you know, it's HCI is already at minus 1.5 on the daily and it's coming into the the neutral territory already on the weekly. It makes me go, "Yeah, they can continue lower, right?" Like a Micron can continue into the 700s. That is possible. I'm not so convinced that we're going to see this thing straight shot it back down to 300 or 200 or 400. I I don't I don't think so. I don't think so. I think this will probably be one of the larger corrections that Micron has ever seen and same thing for Nvidia, obviously, and maybe even in AMD at some point. I think this being one of the larger corrections that it's seen, at least within the last few years, is reasonable because structurally it is different, right? What we're seeing right here isn't the same thing that we saw right here. It's not the same thing that we're seeing right here. No, we're setting lower lows and lower highs. We're in a downtrend now. So yeah, this could continue lower. This could take weeks or months to end. But the connotation that it never comes back and retail being right about that, I don't think so. I think what's more likely to happen is that it potentially continues to build lower. Retail continues to leave at further rates. We see this escalate even further, maybe even take out all of 2026's search volume. Same thing goes for some of these ones. They come back down to regional or yearly historically low levels of sentiment. People aren't looking it up. People don't care. They're not as excited about retail anymore. All right, they're not excited about AI anymore. And then it finds a bottom out of nowhere and rapidly gains momentum and it creates real pain in the market. All those people who left, all the people who got out, all the people who sold, although maybe were right at first, end up regretting it when it goes into some sort of recovery. I feel like that's a a very reasonable way to expect this to play out. And remember, I'm not a financial advisor. I don't know what's going to happen. I have actually no idea what's going to happen. And look, again, there is a world in which yeah, it's over. The AI trade is over. The AI trade is dead. Again, I just don't think that's the higher probability thing yet. If it continues a bit lower, we take out liquidity zones, we take out liquidity ranges, yeah, then it's then it's possible. I don't think we're there yet. And so, I'm almost in the mindset where it's like the fact that retail is leaving already while this correction is going very good and we are seeing a very good reset here on the charts. I'm like, yeah, this looks like a great a great opportunity to reduce some average costs. You know, I personally am not going in and investing into these individually yet because for example, the weekly HCI is still in the positive territory. That's not enough of a correction for me. But for the people who are looking to reduce average costs and things like Micron or and Nvidia, I think we're entering into a pretty solid territory. Now look, the short term will be a little shaky, right? The short term, even the mid term. And it could continue lower. But I think we're entering into corrective territory where going against the grain and being willing to dollar cost average in the moments in which people are leaving in droves, I think that might play out well for some people. I think that might play out well for some people. And personally speaking, if at any given point I see some of these major players on the weekly charts, see negatives on their HCI. If that HCI starts coming down to -1, -2, -3, you bet I'm going in and doing some purchasing. The last time we saw that happen was back here. You see how it flipped green right here? The last time we saw that happen would have been in the tariff crash of 2025 before we saw this bull market kick off. So, if we see anything even similar to that again, yeah, I'll be going in and doing a bit of purchasing. So, I'll keep you all updated on what I decide to do, especially over in the portfolio. A bit of a rougher day today, see? A bit of a ugly one. But, I'll keep you updated on what I decide to do. But, seeing sentiment in this nature and seeing sentiment down and seeing people so just leaving so fast and giving up makes me go, uh I don't I don't think they're going to be right about this. And I think that's a good sign for the people who have that long-term horizon on AI and have a long-term perspective on AI. And it that does feed into what I believe fundamentally. You know, sure, AI stocks might literally just go down or sideways for the rest of this year. It's possible. But, I think I think it's more than reasonable to assume that when Agentics reaches its full form, when Robotics reaches its full form, however long that may be, the market's going to have to price that in. When Robotics is something that becomes essential in the real world, which I believe it will one day, the market will have to price that in. And I can only imagine that that's going to be priced in higher than where we are now. The question is, what does it take to get there, right? Do we see some sort of capitulation, sideways action, and then some sort of growth, or is this literally just a quick one? And we start rallying again. I'm not quite sure what gets us up here right now. None of the catalysts that we've gotten recently have sparked any good buying pressure in the world of AI. So, it's going to be hard, right? It's going to be hard for us to spark up this next move. So, it might take some time. So, the path to pricing getting higher in multiples and prices may be ugly. But, I do think we're going to find our way up there. And I think this correction that we're in right now, however long it could last, could serve as a great opportunity to make some money. So, I'll keep you updated on whenever I make trades and when I make purchases and moves. And this I'm not there yet. Again, our HCI just isn't low enough for me, especially on something like an AMD, you know. Nvidia's getting there. Nvidia's at minus at minus 0.11. So, Nvidia's getting pretty close, but we're not there yet on a lot of these other ones. So, I'll keep you updated on that. I will let you know this this is basically the buy or sell gauge that I use. I know some of you don't know what the HCI is. This is just a Hill Conviction Index. Whenever a stock is going up, the meter goes up. And when it's in the red territory, that's sell territory, as you can see. When the stock goes down, it goes into the green, that's buy territory, as you can see here. So, I basically exclusively do purchases whenever stocks are in the green and exclusively do sells when they're in the red. You can access this tool if you just head over to the toolkit link down below and get it. There's a bunch of other tools in the toolkit as well. So, feel free to check that out. But, yeah. So, I'll keep you updated as it does play out. This is very interesting to me. I think sentiment is one of the more slept on research tools that there is in the space right now. I think a lot of people rely on technicals, which is great. I think a lot of people rely on fundamentals, which is also great. But, remember, at the end of the day, the price doesn't respond to data. It responds to how people respond to data. So, when the market's excited, stocks move in excitement. When people are scared, stocks move in fear. And that's the reason why I made that whole video for you all a few days ago, just saying how to use market sentiment to buy and sell stocks, because this is one of the more slept on skills out there. And so, if you've not gone watch this video, I would actually highly recommend you head to the um the my channel, go over to here. I posted it 4 days ago. Give it a watch. If you want to see more like it, there's also a full educational playlist with seven videos in it right now on things like, you know, market sentiment, how to use indicators, buy and sell or zones, etc. I'm going to post another video like this one Saturday, where we're talking about when I buy stocks, my my guides to buying stocks. So, uh feel free to check that out. But, yeah, go watch that market sentiment video. It goes over some things like this. So, I'll keep you all updated again as it all does play out. Let me know your thoughts down below. Do you think retail is going to be right? That's the question that I want people to answer. Do you think that retail who are leaving right now because they believe the AI trade is over are going to be right? Let me know down in the comments below. Let me know if you're going to be buying or selling AI stocks as a result of whatever, you know, whatever um thesis you have on the market right now. And I can't wait to see you all in the next one. Peace out, everybody.