Oracle vs AWS | Ten Years Behind and Falling

Man, I mean, this is a company that you know, did not have a whole heck of a lot of experience doing this, right? And if you think about AWS and GCP and Azure, I mean, these are companies that were building these clouds out for years and they were well positioned, right? To put models on them, to do heavy duty um training, right? To have access to chips from a company um like Nvidia and actually have the trust of the clients, right? And so, Oracle, you know, I understand why they wanted to enter this business, um but like it seems like there's couldn't have been a worse company to actually take this on, at least given their execution and the continued confidence that they have fulfilling some of these obligations um specifically to Open AI. I think the market is calling BS on it and that's pretty clear right now. And to Steve's point before, I mean, negative cash flow for this company, they continue to have to raise debt. They said they weren't going to do any more than that 25 billion this year. I suspect they're going to have to for this very point because they're having cost overruns and they didn't foresee some of these problems. >> Well, you know, we talked about the CDS um the credit default swap spreads, which are an indicator of how uh how levered, I guess, is really and how how much concern there is about the leverage. So, it's big here and higher than where it's been. Um I think, you know, at some point, they probably can't issue more debt. They would could issue more equity, always, right? That not not that they would want to, but that is a possibility. So, that would weigh on the stock as well. Um but of all of the ones, this is the one that's least interesting to me by a lot. >> It all hinges on Open AI and their ability to sort of fulfill that. I mean, some of the revenue forecasts for Open AI are staggering and if they don't get there, they'll lose, obviously, but Oracle loses in a major way because Larry Ellison basically pushed all the chips in the middle of the table and right now, it's not working out and the credit default swap standing and Karen just talked about, it's problematic. I mean, they're trading as if something's more wrong than even the stock price at this level suggests. >> You know, it's it's really interesting. As as negative as we all are on Oracle, when I look at it on a technical basis, I go back a couple of years, and this is where the stock has bottomed out um for the last maybe two or three years. This has been some support. Now, fundamentals and technicals always two tell two different stories, and Carter will tell you that technicals tell everything that the fundamentals tell. I'm not saying go in there and buy it. I'm just saying this is a place where it's had support in the last >> few years. >> Just one more thing. They don't report, I think, until September. And so, they did have one, I forget which it was, S&P or Moody's or Fitch who downgraded them. If another one does to to one over junk, right?