3 Stocks Down 50%+ You’ll Regret Not Buying

Folks, in today's video, we're going to break down the top three stocks to buy the dip on, and buy the dip heavily. All three of these stocks were some of the hottest names in the market just a few months ago, and all three have been absolutely beat down to oblivion. Two of them are down more than 50% from their highs, and the third has given back almost its entire run. Now, here's the thing. In all three cases, the business is in a better spot today than it was at the top. More contracts, more revenue, more cash. The only thing that got worse was the stock price. So, for each one, I'm going to keep it simple today. What the company does, why it's unique, how fast it's growing, and then we're going to break out the chart, and I'll show you the big levels to watch, the levels that have mattered for months and years, and the previous history and back tested data. That is going to be a gamecher if you're following these companies. And then at the end of the video, I'm going to go on to a sponsored segment on Oncolitics Biotech, ticker symbol Ocas. Oncolitics is a clinical stage biotech based in San Diego. It's developing a drug called Polar Rep, which is an amunotherapy given through an IV. The basic idea is that it helps the immune system find tumors and go after them. I'll break down the company and why you may want to put it on your radar. And as always, if you're the one taking the ultimate risk, you better be the one doing the ultimate frisk. Lots of people get real risky, but they don't do their frisky and vice versa. Okay, so number three, Apply Digital, APLD. Apply Digital is a landlord, but instead of renting out the apartments, they rent out giant buildings full of power and cooling to AI companies. That's really it. They build the campus. They hook up an enormous amount of electricity. Then a company like Horwave signs a lease, moves in and fills the building with Nvidia chips. And Applied Digital collects the rent. So why is it unique, Mr. Charlie charlito, who's just looking for a rally rally toe? Well, one word, power. Anybody with enough money can buy AI chips. What you can't just go in and buy is a place to plug them in. A single AI campus can pull as much electricity as a small city, and getting that kind of power can take years. Applied Digital went to places like North Dakota where power is cheap and the cold air helps keep the chips cool and they lock that power up early and these leases are long around 15 years. So once a tenant moves in that rent check keeps showing up for a very very long time. Now how's it expanding? Well last quarter revenue was about $342 million. A year earlier it was about $81 million. That's up 322%. They now have 1.41 41 gigawatts leased across five campuses in North Dakota, Louisiana, and Alabama. That's about $ 36 billion of contracted revenue over the life of those leases. And they've announced a 1 gigawatt site in Finland on top of all of that. And remember where this company came from in in 2022. This was a $1 stock hosting Bitcoin miners. They saw AI coming and rebuilt the whole company around it. And this one went up massively, but now it's down very aggressively from those highs. And I continue to believe it's a great buy. So, what about Catalyst? What could move the needle on APLD? Number one, a new lease that Finland site still doesn't have a tenant announced. When they signed Cororeweave in June of 2025, the stock jumped some 48% in one day and nearly doubled in a week. That's some juicy rally rally towing. When they signed a $7.5 billion lease this May, it jumped about 21% in a day. But a $5 billion lease in October of 2025, well, it popped a few% in the morning and closed the day red. So, a new lease has been worth anywhere from nothing to 48%. And the surprise ones were the big ones. Now, number two, earnings. Look, the next report should be around early January. And here are the last six reactions. Down 36%, up 31%, up 16%, up 8%, and down 8% and then you had one flat one. So, the reactions have been shrinking even as the numbers got bigger. I wouldn't count on earnings alone, but earnings can cause massive rally rallitoes. Three, the floor itself. The last three bounces off that 19 to23 zone were 120%, 150% and 44%. And about 21% of the float is sold short here. Short sellers are betting very aggressively that this company that is doing very well is going to go bankrupt. I think that is a misplaced trade and I think that it's going to cause a ricochet effect. Now, let's talk about the chart. So, break it out and if you zoom out here, I want you to see this rhythm. Feel the rhythm. Feel the music here. April 2025, the stock is just over $3. By October of 2025, it's at 40. Then it pulls back to 19, runs to 42 in January, the wary of the Jan, and falls back to 20 by the end of March. And then the big one, 20-50 in two months. The all-time high is late May 2026, just above 50. 50-0, the big 5. And since then it's been cut in half back to the low 20s. Right back to the low 20s. So this stock runs and then it breathes. And it breathes hard. But look at where it stopped breathing every single time. November 2025 at 19. Marco Libre 2026 at 20. July 2026 at about 23. So that's the same zone three times. 19 to 23. That is a proven floor. And that's right where the stock is sitting at right now. Now the bad. Let's talk about the bad. You got to talk about the bad. Each bounce off that floor has been smaller. 50 then 33 in August. Those are the lower highs pressing down on a flat floor. The stock is below its 50-day moving average which is in the high 20s and below its 200 day which is in the low30s. So the bigger trend right now is still down. And a floor that keeps getting tested can break. So that's the bad. But here's the stat I like and it's something that you want to pay attention to. So, this is the sixth time since it went public that this stock has been cut in half. The first five times it came back and made a brand new all-time high every single time. Sometimes in a couple of months, sometimes it took about a year. Patterns tend to repeat themselves. Of course, they don't have to, but they are something that we got to pay attention to. So, here's how I'd frame it. The floor is about 19 to 23. A close below 19 breaks the setup and puts the mid- teens in play. To the upside, the first door is the 50-day in the high 20s. then 32 to 33 where the 200 day and the August high stack together then the low 40s and then the old high at 50 which from the low 20s is roughly a double. Okay, number two, Redwire RDW. So back in April, we put Redwire on our list of five stocks to know before the SpaceX IPO. I called it the stealth play on the whole space sector. And then on May 5th with the stock at $8.69, we made it the main entree of the video. And the thesis was simple. Look, SpaceX was about to go public. A tsunami of money was about to rush into anything connected to space and every other space stock had already run. Redwire was one that hadn't moved yet. About a week later, it was at 11 12 and we covered it again. By our May 24th video, it was at $1749, up about 101%. And on May 28th, it tagged 26 and change. So, from $869, the stock tripled in 16 trading days. But don't miss this part. On June 5th with the stock above 21, I told you what I thought came next. I said you'd likely see profit taken after the SpaceX IPO, the stock would dip down. And if you're just buying for the long term, maybe wait for that take-profit period. Then on June 24th with the stock at 12, we laid out the levels 12 then 10, and then 8 to 9, which I called erasing the entire SpaceX Euphoria. Now levels I'm watching. First level $12 where it's at now. It's already about 50% off its high. This is a critical sticking point. second level $10. The next shelf if the sector stays weak or or the company decides to dilute a little bit lower level back to erasing the entire SpaceX Euphoria $8 to $99. This is back where you get into the true deep value territory. And folks, that's exactly what happened. In June, the company announced a program to sell up to $500 million of new stock. And of course, nobody likes dilution. A few days later, SpaceX went public and sucked the money right out of the small space names. By late July, Redwire touched $7.76. That's down 71% from the high in two months. That's below where we first called it out. The entire run got erased. So, the anticipatory hype run part of the trade is over. And now we're talking about the long-term bigger picture, the fundamental value stage. And I think now is a good time to pick it up. So, what does Redwire do? Well, it really has two businesses. The first one is space. They make the parts every spacecraft needs. Solar arrays that roll out like a yoga mat, which are powering the International Space Station right now. docking systems, cameras, sensors. Their hardware has flown on more than a thousand missions. The second one is defense. In 2025, they bought a company called Edge Autonomy, which makes small military drones called Stalker and the Penguin. Those go to the US military and to NATO allies. So, why is this one unique? Well, it's the pick and shovels of space. It doesn't matter who wins the space race. Everybody needs power. Everybody needs to dock. And Redwire sells it to all of them. And when your parts have flown a thousand times, that track record is very, very hard for a new competitor to copy. And then also look, you get space and drones, two of the biggest spending trends on the planet inside one company. >> We will deliver tens of thousands of small drones to our force in 2026 and hundreds of thousands of them by 2027. >> So, how's it expanding? Last quarter, revenue was $17 million. That's up almost 90% from a year ago. The backlog, meaning signed work they haven't delivered yet, hit a record $542 million. For every dollar they build, they signed about a $140 in new orders. and they're guiding to 450 to 500 million in revenue this year. What are their recent wins though, Charlie? Who just wants a rally rally to? Well, solar arrays for a second module on Axiom's commercial space station, a big multi-year drone contract with a NATO customer, and a seat on a Space Force contract vehicle worth up to $981 million across 15 companies. They have about $558 million in cash and less than 50 million in debt. At these prices, the whole company is worth roughly $2.5 billion. So nearly a quarter of what you're paying for is cash sitting in the bank and we love cashola. So think about that. In May, people were paying 26 for this. Today it's under 10 with a bigger backlog and a stronger balance sheet. I call that a dealio. So what could move it and by how much? Let's talk about the catalyst. Number one, earnings expected in early November. And this stock has a history here. Good and bad. In August and November of 2025, the reports disappointed and the stock dropped 31% and 18% the next day. The last three went the other way up 11% in February. In May, it dipped the first day and then jumped 20% the next. And this August up 27% in two days. So earnings on this stock have been a 20 to 30% event in either direction. Number two, a big defense award. So in January, the wary of the Jan Redwire was selected for a spot on the missile defense ay's shield program which is tied to Golden Dome and the stock jumped about 30% in one day. Now, it gave most of that back within about a week, but still you could see the opportunity here. Now, number three, money rotating back into the space. That's what tripled the stock three separate times as you can see here, here, and here. You can't put that one on a calendar, but when it's come, it's come fast. Zoom all the way out here. Redwire went public in 2021 at $10 through a spa. By the end of 2022, it was under $2. Then, the space trade woke up. And in January of 2025, it hit $266. Now look at this. May 2026, the SpaceX run. The high $26.64. 2 cents apart, 16 months apart. So 26 and change is the ceiling on this chart. Tagged twice. Rejected hard twice. Now the floor 7.5 October 2025 $744 February 2026 $753. March Libre $743. July $7.76. That's four tags of the same zone. It did break one time in November of 2025 down to just under five and it was back above within weeks. And here's the rhythm. Three times in the last year and a half, this stock has roughly tripled off a low. And every single time it gave most of it back. So this is not a buy and forget it type of story. The best time to pay attention has been at the breathing cycle lows when nobody wants it and everybody's screaming that it's a big bad stock to buy. That's a lot closer to where we are now than we were in May. Now, for the levels, the 50-day and the 200 day moving averages are both sitting right around $11 and the stock is underneath them. So, $11 is the door the stock has to walk through the key resistance. A close above it puts the stock back on the right side of the line. Above that, 12 to 12 where it's been rejected in April, July, and September. Then 14 to 14 12 and after that there's a lot of open air to the 20s. To the downside, the floor is 7 and 12 to 8. That's roughly 20% below current levels. A close below it breaks the setup and puts five back in play. So there you go. A proven floor about 20% below, a ceiling more than 150% above, and a business that's bigger than it was at either high. Number one, Churchill Capital XI or a CCXi. So you have to understand this one right now is a spa and it's merging with a humanoid robot company called Agility Robotics. This is one that we've been talking about in the playbook. If you watch if you watch this Thursday, we did a big deep dive on this company, but it's something that you really have to pay attention to. Now, to understand the stock, you do have to understand what an SPACK is. A spa is a blank check company, a group of investors, called the sponsor, lists an empty shell on the stock market. There's no product, there's no employees, nothing. They sell shares at $10 each, and all of that cash gets locked in what's called a trust account. That shell has one job. Find a private company and merge with it. That's how a private company can go public without doing a regular IPO. And here's the key rule. Before the merger closes, shareholders vote and every shareholder has the right to say, "No thanks. Give me my 10 bucks back plus a little interest." That's called the redemption. Now, because of that rule, Spacks trade in three phases. Phase one, no deal yet. It's a pile of cash worth about 10 bucks a share. So, the stock sits at about 10 bucks. CCXI did exactly that. For four months, it was between $1010 and $10.40. Phase two, the deal is announced. Now, it trades on the story. If the market loves the company, it pops. And then very typically it fades. The excitement cools off. There are months of paperwork and there's nothing to do but wait, but that $10 floor is still there because you could still redeem. So before the close, a spa rarely trades much below the cash in the trust. And then phase three, the merger closes, the ticker changes, and the floor is gone. Now it's just a regular stock. And folks, this is where a lot of spacks have gotten ugly. Now, let me give you some examples. Lucid, which was done by the same sponsor, and it's actually one of our top picks from back in 2021 when it was CCIV, and it ran from a very low price massively up to this level right here before it had its merger that ended up causing a massive destruction long-term in the share price. But hey, if you were somebody playing that run like we called out back then, you did very, very well. I was wrong, however, on the long-term value of Lucid. I didn't know it was going to be such a disaster, but I did properly predict the first original run. But anywh who the spa CCIV ran from 10 to about 65 before that deal closed. Today it's down about 99% from that peak. So anyways, understand that there's different cycles and different stages for these types of stocks. The anticipatory run into the spa is the original trade and then after all of the hype and news coverage and CNBC articles die off, then you see a massive drop and then that's where you want to buy if you're a long-term buyer. So, short-term traders at first, long-term buyers after the dipperoo. So, what the hell does Agility do, Charlieito? Well, Agility Robotics makes a humanoid robot called Digit. It walks on two legs, it has two arms, and it moves boxes and bins around warehouses and factories. So, why is this unique? I mean, everybody has seen the robot videos, the dancing, the back flips, the folding of the laundry. Digit isn't a video, though. Digit has a real job. It has logged more than 65,000 hours of real paid work at customer sites. It's working for GXO, one of the biggest logistics companies in the world. It's also at Chaffler. It's at Toyota's plant in Canada. And look at who invested. Nvidia, Amazon, Japan Soft Bank, and Foxcon, the company that builds the iPhone, is leading the new money coming in with this merger. So, how's it expanding, though? What is it doing to actually expand its market share? Well, in September, they revealed the newest version, Digit 5. It lifts 50 lbs. It works about 10 minutes for every one minute it charges. And it's built to work right next to people instead of inside a safety cage. They have more than $300 million in multi-year orders for it. That's roughly a,000 robots. They all do the robboto. And they don't sell them. They rent them at around $8,500 a month. So a,000 robots is roughly $100 million a year in recurring revenue. And they already have the factory. It's in Oregon with room to build 10,000 Robbotos a year. The deal values Agility at $2.5 billion and is set to bring in more than $620 million in cash. Now, what's the bad here? Well, Agility did $1.8 million in revenue last year, not a billion million with an operating loss of $140 million. Digit 5 isn't expected to be widely available until the end of 2027. And yeah, those orders depend on hitting milestones. So this is an early stage company but with early stage companies you get a lot of opportunity just like you get a lot of risk. So let's talk about the catalyst for this spec. So number one the vote and the ticker change. This is the number one thing you want to pay attention to right now. So around its vote the inflection spec which was a recent one that went through this process was trading in the mid13s and the first day under the new ticker it spiked to 17 and a half. That's close to 30%. 2 weeks later it was at 11. six weeks after the close, eight and a half, and three weeks after that, 21. So, the ticker change was a pop, then a drop, then a much bigger pop. Two, the redemption number on inflection, almost nobody redeemed, and the company nearly got all of the trust cash. If that repeats here, Agility gets the full $620 million. If a lot of people redeem, obviously, that's going to be a red flag and something you got to pay attention to. I don't think the redemptions are going to be crazy. Company news, and I'll be honest, this one's been mixed. The deal announcement was worth 91% in 9 days. As you can see here, the Digit 5 unveal got about 7% the next day. The investor day got nothing. And in August, the stock ran 46% in 3 weeks without any big headline at all. So, the stock has moved more around the mood on robots than actual press releases. But considering how low the stock is right now, well, there's not much hype in the stock price right now. And of course, fourth, analyst coverage, which can be hard to predict, but it usually starts happening like crazy once they start announcing when the deal is going to be completed. Okay, so let's talk about the chart. So there are only a few months of real price action here. So let's keep it simple. Phase 1, February through June, flat at 10. Phase 2, June 24th, the deal is announced. And in nine trading days, the stock goes from just under 10 to almost 20. Then it breathes down to about $12.70 in late July, bounces to 18.5 in mid August, and since then lower high after lower high, 14, then 13 1/2, then 12 1/2, down to 11. So that's the textbook's back fade. The stock is down about 45% from its high and it's given back more than 90% of the deal pop. It's below its 50-day, which is in the mid13s. So the trend is down, and nobody should tell you otherwise. But look at what's underneath here. The floor here isn't a line somebody drew on a chart. It's the cash in the trust, a little over $10 a share if you're adding in the redemption interest. And the stock is sitting within about a dollar of it. So at these levels, the market is charging you around a buck a share for the entire agility deal premium. The orders, the factory, Foxcon, Nvidia, all of it. And Foxcon's money is coming in at 10. So to the upside, the first door here to watch is 12 to 12 1/2, then 13 1/2 to 14, and then the big ones 18 1/2 and the high near 20. But here is the catch, and I really don't want you to miss this. Make sure to make a note of this. The floor goes away the day the merger closes, which is expected by the end of the year. That's phase three. After that, it can absolutely trade below 10. Right now, though, you have that beautiful $10 floor, maybe $1010 or something, depending on how you calculate the interest. The sponsor's last deal, the quantum company we talked about called Inflection, was below $10 within about 6 weeks of closing. But before that, it was fair game for traders. And then it more than doubled from that low in 3 weeks. So before the close, what you have right now is a robot story with a floor under it. After the close, it's a robot story, period. So make sure that you're aware of these different stages because they're very different in terms of stock behavior. Anyways, folks, that caps off our top three stocks. Let us know which one's your favorite down below. Are you going to be playing any of these? What is your opinion? Let us know down below. And now it's time for our sponsored segment. And today's sponsored segment is on Oncolitics Biotech, ticker symbol NCY on the NASDAQ. Now, Oncolitics is a clinical stage biotech based out of San Diego. It's developing a drug called Polar Rep, which is an amunotherapy given through an IV. The basic idea is that it helps the immune system find tumors and go after them. Right now, the company is focused on gastrointestinal cancers. I'll break down this company and why you may want to put it on your radar and begin your due diligence. So, so what is oncolics? Well, thank you for asking. And polaro rep is built from a Rio virus which is a common virus that usually doesn't make people sick. Oncolitics found a way to use it against cancer. Once it's in the bloodstream, it replicates inside tumor cells that gets the immune systems attention and pulls immune cells into the tumor. A lot of tumors are what doctors call cold. The immune system basically can't see them. So treatments that work through the immune system don't do much. Polar rep is designed to turn those cold tumors hot. So chemo and checkpoint drugs have a better shot at working. More than 1,200 patients have been treated with it so far. So what's the market gap? Well, colurectal cancer is one of the most common cancers out there. Oncolitics is going after a specific group of patients whose cancer has a RA mutation and whose first treatment already stopped working. These patients are tough to treat and amunotherapy drugs mostly don't work for them because their tumors are cold. Historically, only about 6 to 11% of these patients respond to the standard second line treatment. On average, their cancer starts growing again in less than 6 months. Then there's anal cancer. Once patients get through firstline treatment, which is now chemo plus a checkpoint drug, there's no FDA approved option for what comes next. The company puts that US opportunity at close to 1 billion a year. So, what's the business model? Well, the business model on Colitics is still in the clinical stage. So, its value comes from moving Polaro Rep through trials and toward FDA approval. The plan is to add Polaro Rep on top of treatments doctors already use. That could make it a lot easier to fit into existing care if it gets approved. The company is also open to partnering with bigger drug companies to speed things up. And in June, it got a new US patent covering how Polaropp is made at commercial scale with protection running in 2044. In an earlier colurectal study called REO022, patients got polar rep on top of the standard chemo combo about 33% of them responded compared to roughly 6 to 11% historically. The median time before their cancer grew again was 16.6 months versus about 5.7 months. Median overall survival came in at 27 months versus about 11.2. So that's a pretty substantial improvement. That was a small study without a control group. So the company built a new trial to test it head-to-head. That trial is called REO033. It splits about 60 patients between standard care alone and standard care plus Polaro Rep. In August, the FDA gave written feedback supporting a plan to expand REO033 into a pivotal part B. Under that plan, response rate could support an accelerated approval and the time before the cancer grows again could support full approval. Oncolitics wants to start setting up part B as soon as it has positive interm data. In anal cancer, the goblet study paired Polaroppp with a checkpoint drug in patients who had already been treated. About 30% responded, which is more than double historical rates. After 12 months, 82% of patients were still alive compared to about 46% historically. Oncolitics lined up with the FDA on a pivotal anal cancer study in April and then got fasttrack designation there in July. That's the company's first fast track in GI cancers after pancreatic cancer in 2022 and colorectal cancer in February. Fasttrack means more phase with the FDA and a shot at a faster review down the road. The company also put early lab data in September pairing Polar Rep with a pan inhibitor. That's a newer type of cancer drug that targets the same mutation these colctal patients have. Now, what about the leadership? Well, oncolitics is run by CEO Jared Kelly. Before this, he was head of legal and strategy at AMBRX. Ambrose, a biotech that Johnson and Johnson bought in 2024. In June, the company promoted John McAdory to chief operating officer and added Steve Glover to its board with all of the relevant experience that they have. Back in January, Oncolitics also expanded its gastrointestinal cancer advisory board. It brought on Dr. Alen O'Reilly and Dr. Neil Seagull from Memorial Sloan Ketarine, plus Dr. Van Morris from MD Anderson. Those are two of the top cancer centers in the country. Now let's talk about the risks. Onolics is a small company and small biotech stocks can move hard in either direction on a single headline. And these companies tend to be extremely expensive, capex heavy. It costs a lot of money to do everything they're doing and try to build in the space they're building. And so that could mean lots of dilution. Delilution means long-term the share price can go down. Polar rep isn't approved for anything yet. So a lot of their future success rides on interim data and the part B decision. The strongest colorectal numbers come from a small study without a control group and REO033 has to show that benefit holds up in a randomized trial. The company is also working across several cancers at the same time, which is a lot of moving pieces for a small team. And again, running trials takes money. So investors should expect the company to keep issuing new shares over time because that tends to be how these types of companies work. So keep these risks in mind and and make sure to go through all the SEC filings to read over all the risks that you should consider. So anyways, in conclusion, oncoltics is a small biotech with one drug and a clear focus on heart to treat GI cancers. It has three fasttrack designations in GI cancers, FDA alignment on paths in both colurectal and anal cancer, and a manufacturing patent running into 2044. The next big marker to watch is the interim reo33 data. The company says it expects by the end of this year. If you want to dig into this company more and do your due diligence, I'll put the link to their investor relations page down below. Anyways, have a great rest of your day. We'll see you in the next video.