Companies like Ally Financial, ticker ALLY, with shares up 14% over the last year and paying a 2.7% dividend.
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“Here I'm looking for cash flow stable companies trading on a discount to their peers. Companies like Ally Financial, ticker ALLY, with shares up 14% over the last year and paying a 2.7% dividend.”
Johnson & Johnson, ticker JNJ, which even after a 50% run over the last year, still only trades for 22 times this year's expected earnings
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“Johnson & Johnson, ticker JNJ, which even after a 50% run over the last year, still only trades for 22 times this year's expected earnings...”
Nvidia, and yes, even Supermicro Computer when it sells off
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“...E T, AMD, Nvidia, and yes, even Supermicro Computer when it sells off, that AI play is still going to be alive for at least the rest of this year.”
I recommended buying the shares at that time when they dropped below $16 each and picked up 6,000 shares in my own portfolio
Contexto
“I recommended buying the shares at that time when they dropped below $16 each and picked up 6,000 shares in my own portfolio...”
Transcrição Completa
Two months ago, nobody believed my nacho stocks. Five stocks beating the market by five to 20% since then, while the hottest AI names have tumbled. Now, I'm watching another opportunity the market is completely ignoring. Buying five stocks before Wall Street catches on. Hey, Bo Daling Nation, Joseph Hog with your weekly stock market update before the week starts with the stocks to watch, the stock market news you need to see. Stick around after those five stocks I'm buying right now for the real reason Google crashed last week and why SoFi Technologies, ticker SOFI, is the stock to buy before it's earnings. Back to those five stocks for August though, because nation, the best investments are almost never what everyone else is talking about. Case in point, I recommended five stocks in the nacho trade mid-May calling it not a chance Hormel's opens. Actually, I think I said not a chance in hell Hormel's opens when everyone else was optimistic about an end to the war. Instead, I highlighted five stocks that would benefit from that contrarian call. These were names in defense, insurance, and oil like RTX, Chubb, and Diamondback Energy. These weren't sexy stocks, but they were smart stocks given a deeper read on the news and are up an average 5% with RTX up almost 20% over the two months since that video. That's against a sell-off in stocks everyone is talking about. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 5%. Intel and Google down more than 15% and Oracle has crashed 36% since. But now, I'm watching another theme, another group of stocks that investors have completely neglected and I'm buying before the market closes in. Nation, over almost four years since the bull market started, value stocks have been absolutely crushed by growth names. The Vanguard Value ETF, ticker VTV, a fund of quality company factors and stocks selling for price-to-cash-flow discounts, has produced just 57% returns since December the Vanguard Growth ETF, ticker VUG, by more than 77% and nearly half the return on the broader S&P 500 market index. And actually, that's pretty normal. That is what usually happens in a bull market. Investors get dollar signs in their eyes and chase those high growth stocks, paying anything for the next hot stock, and and then stampeding to the exits on those slower growth cash flow stable companies. But now, folks, when growth goes too far, when that gap gets too extreme and the market gets shaky, value stocks are where investors want to run for cover. In the bear market after 2021, growth stocks in the Vanguard VUG lost almost 32%. Well, value stocks held up well, losing less than 8% and offsetting some of that with a dividend cash payment. Now, that big bear market came on the back of rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve, something we're also looking at for the latter half of this year. And another sign that that inflection may come in value versus growth is the complete capitulation of who some call the British Warren Buffett, Terry Smith of the Fundsmith Equity Fund, has recently overturned half of his portfolio stocks, getting unusually active in his fund, giving up some of the value theme after 6 years of underperformance. Folks, it is exactly this kind of complete surrender from hedge funds and portfolio managers in a theme that always marks a turning point. Over the next 6 months, we're going to see increased labor market weakness, inflation, and that threat of economy-killing higher interest rates. That is going to bring bigger swings in stocks and the kind of market chaos that makes value a better investment. Just like with those stocks 2 months ago, these might not be the sexy investments, but they are the smarter one. So, here I'm looking for cash flow stable companies trading on a discount to their peers. Companies like Ally Financial, ticker ALLY, with shares up 14% over the last year and paying a 2.7% dividend. For a bank stock, it's got surprisingly strong growth with 14% revenue growth this year and 6% expected next, which I think it's going to beat that for closer to 7 or 9% growth. Earnings power here is exploding with 38% profit growth this year to $5.27 a share, putting the stock at at 8.3 times on a price-to-earnings basis. Energy Transfer, ticker ET, has been another one I've liked for a long time. This one up 15% in the last year on top of that 6.5% dividend yield. Now, ET is a midstream energy company, which means it owns the pipelines, the processing, and the storage infrastructure in that oil and gas industry. A huge network that collects fees on every barrel moved. These companies are more like toll booths, collecting that fee income no matter what happens to the price of oil. So, it is a cash flow stable business and pays out most of its income as dividends. Now, where investing in Energy Transfer, any of these midstream MLP type companies gets tricky is because the accounting rules and the tax rules, you can't just use those normal value measures like price to earnings. Now, I'm not going to nerd out on all the accounting here and go into the detail, but here I use the market cap of the company. So, that's the price of all the shares in the market. It's about $70 right now, divided by the company's distributable cash flow. This is something they always show in the financial statements, that DCF of $8.2 billion last year. So, that is a price to DCF, a price to cash flow of just 8.5 times. And this deep value for a quality cash producing company. Even though it's underperformed the broader market over the last 4 years, the Vanguard VTV has still produced a 22% return over the last year along with its almost 2% dividend. I like the fund as a one-stop for this entire theme with over 300 stocks in this value and the stability idea. But here, besides just buying that ETF to spread out my risk, I'm also going to use the mine a few more stocks in this theme. You can go to the fund page and see all the stocks held here. Now, I'd avoid most of these tech names like Micron here if you have them individually or if you have them in an AI focused fund. But some of these other value names I'd be looking to pick up right now, including JP Morgan, ticker JPM, which is up 17% and trades for just 15 times price to earnings. Johnson & Johnson, ticker JNJ, which even after a 50% run over the last year, still only trades for 22 times this year's expected earnings and drug maker AbbVie ticker ABBV which trades for 18 times earnings even after it's 35% run. Now turning it over to the stocks I'm watching this week cuz it's a huge week for earnings. First looking back on last week though with Alphabet ticker GOOGL fell almost 8% last week on its earnings report even as the company reported revenue growth that beat forecast to a $120 billion. 82% growth in its cloud business. But folks, the problem here was in what's called free and that's something you're going to hear a lot over the next few months from these AI stocks. So I want to explain it get into it so you know what they're talking about. That free cash flow or FCF found on the statement of cash flows is the operating cash flow generated by the company's core business minus some of the investing cash outflows. So the amount they spend on capital expenditures those capital investments. So here theoretically FCF is the cash flow the company could return to investors and still keep growing the business. So it represents that pure cash generated measure for a stock. But now with that report last week and Alphabet forecasting an increase in capital investments to $200 billion this year and analysts expecting it to spend as much as $257 billion next year in that rush to build out its AI. It turned free cash flow negative last quarter and threatens it further into next year. We're going to hear from Meta Platforms this week but all together just the four hyper scalers that's Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft are expected to spend almost $900 billion next year in capital expenditures. And the problem is even with that 82% growth in the company's cloud business that tied to the AI data center buildout investors are just worried that that revenue isn't going to be there to justify going negative in near term cash flow and spending all that money right now. The good news though is that Google and those other hyper scalers pain is the rest of the AI infrastructure themes gain as that $900 is going to be spent on those Nvidia chips, the Micron memory and even the servers made by Super Micro Computer. And what it means, while we might have those ups and downs when the fear takes over in any given week, like it did last week, investing in the stocks that make up this AI supply chain, like Broadcom, a ticker AVGO, Marvell, MRVL, Arista Networks, E T, AMD, Nvidia, and yes, even Supermicro Computer when it sells off, that AI play is still going to be alive for at least the rest of this year. And speaking of Supermicro Computer, last week saw a big bump in the shares as management pre-announced its earnings, saying it had $60 billion in backlog revenue orders, meaning that top-line revenue growth is going to continue. And shocked the market with a gross margin, so that profitability more than double what the market was forecasting. That's been a big boogeyman for investors in the stock that the company is having this huge surge in in revenue growth, but wasn't able to convert it into earnings. That's laid to rest now with the the company now putting out more earnings from that from that revenue growth, and investors came back to the stock with a 20% bump. And that alone doesn't mean the stock is going to go straight up from here. And like I've said in the past, this is not a stock for the weak-hearted. If you cannot stand those ups and downs, that roller coaster in the stock from, frankly, what is piss-poor management at managing this company, then you should not be investing, even though it is still tragically undervalued. Even though the the stock is worth $45, $50 a share at least, you should not invest in it. There are other great stocks in this AI infrastructure play that will continue to be beatable. I'm also watching Fortinet, ticker FTNT. It's going to start cybersecurity earnings when it reports on Wednesday, with investors watching for an AI-driven bump in revenue. Forecast for sales up almost 16% on the quarter, just over full-year expectations, and for a 17% earnings growth. Now, growth is slower for Fortinet than some of the others in the space, but this is a profitability king here that's hard to beat. So, it remains one of my favorites, and what is also my favorite long-term theme, that's cybersecurity. After Zscaler, ticker ZS, it's my largest holding here and up 73% followed by CrowdStrike, Okta, and Palo Alto Networks. And shares of Fortinet were up 20% on last quarter's report. So, the bar is set pretty high here, but long-term these stocks are continuing to deliver those returns. And SoFi Technologies ticker SOFI is going to be closely watched when it reports earnings Wednesday as well. The stock dived 15% in April on its first quarter report showing slowed customer growth and earnings that missed expectations by about 4% even while it's still posting that strong growth. I recommended buying the shares at that time when they dropped below $16 each and picked up 6,000 shares in my own portfolio for a company expected to post outstanding growth for a bank. Forecasts are for revenue up 30% and for management to leverage that up to 59% increase in earnings to 59 cents a share. Now, I would actually include SoFi in that list of value stocks as well because even though the shares trade for almost two times book value. So, that price to book value we use for for bank stocks which is high for most banks, growth is so strong that the stock generally trades much higher as high as 4.6 times price to book earlier last year. So, a discount relative to its own history. I'm going to update our market outlook next, but first if you haven't yet, please use the special invite link below to join me on the Blossom Investing app and see every stock in my portfolio. It's totally free to use and helps support this channel. So, I appreciate that. And you're going to get to see what over 500,000 investors are talking about in the social feed. So, so look for that invite link below or just scan the QR code here. Updating our stock market outlook. Investors have mostly looked past the escalation in Iran with the S&P 500 down less than a percent against a 15% pop in the price of oil and a war that is only getting worse. Now, part of this is that earnings continue to surprise to the upside and supporting stocks. Part of it is also that investors have been rewarded for buying the dip over the last four years and are still buying, but that could all be tested this week with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The market is now pricing in odds of 35% that the Central Bank raises interest rates, slowing economic growth to cool that inflation. That's from the FedWatch rate tool on the CME, which uses interest rate derivatives pricing to predict what the Federal Reserve is going to do. That rise in the price of oil has driven these odds up from just 12% last week, but I have continued to say that they won't raise interest rates, and I still don't think they will. Kevin Warsh just started as chair three months ago, and while there may be reasons to raise rates, he's not going to jump the gun so early. The Fed is likely going to talk tougher against the need to fight inflation in its meeting release, but they're going to hold off, and that is going to be a positive signal for stocks. But then that case for rate increases is getting stronger though, and the market is pricing in 80% chance of a rate hike in the next meeting in September, possibly as many as two increases by next year. Oh, we're going to see an important part of that though, the personal consumption expenditures, the PCE measure of inflation on Thursday. And this is the one the Fed watches, and it's expected to show that the pace of inflation actually fell to 3.7% in the year to the last month from about 4% in the prior month. Now, of course, that was before the recent pop in the price of oil, but it's still going to be a welcome report, and like the CPI earlier in the month, should help investors discount those future Fed rate increases. And that combined with earnings that are still booming, companies in the S&P 500 are reporting profits of 38% from last year. All of this is going to continue to support stocks, and means I'm going to continue to buy this bull market. YouTube says you're going to like this video on the right here next, so watch it, and let's see if they're right.
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