STEVE WEISS SAYS "IT'S WELL DESERVED SKEPTICISM" -07/29- Technical Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading

Blue cloud trading [singing] through the night. >> Welcome back to the channel everyone. [music] In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the halftime report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking heads are saying. Hit that like button. Subscribe if you haven't already and let's roll the tape on the first clip. >> All right guys, thanks so much. Welcome to the halftime report. I'm Scott Wner front and center this hour. [music] What a day ahead. The Fed meeting, earnings from Meta, Microsoft looming, so much more happening in these markets today. We're trading all of it, of course, with the investment committee and joining me for the hour, Joe Teranova, Brent Talkington, Steve Weiss, Kevin Simpson to the markets. We're getting hit pretty hard here. Uh 12:00 noon in the east. That is the picture today with the Dow down 1 and 2/3%. The S&P is now off almost 1%. NASDAQ selling has picked up a bit. The chips are getting weaker as we speak. And part of it has to do with the fact that there's that big spike in crude that you saw at the bottom of your screen, at least where some of the green on the board is today. Uh Sarah was just talking about yields. We're watching all that. But there's the chips picture uh at 12:00 noon. So we we do have a one heck of a day. Uh and as single days go, this is a pretty big one with with everything that's looming in the in the hours ahead. Well, it's big for me personally because of Microsoft and Meta. Yes, the Federal Reserve is critically important. Is there a surprise there? We'll see. The market will react one way or the other to a significant surprise. But back to Microsoft and Meta. Clearly, the theme has been about capex. We heard that last week with Alphabet and for the first time they were free cash flow negative. Obviously, the street punished them for that. So each one of these stocks, Meta and Microsoft, I utilize momentum as a factor in a strategy. Neither one of these names, Scott, whether you're looking on a 12-month basis or a six-month basis, can be defined as a momentum stock anymore. Let's get that out of the way. >> Take Microsoft first. I mean, everybody on the desk owns it, so there's a lot at stake. Um, obviously today, Bren, the stock's underperformed. It's the worst of the hyperscalers year to date. Uh maybe that limits some of the downside as some are suggesting because it already hasn't done anything. There are a lot of questions out there if they're going to raise their capex guide. Are they going to maintain their guide on Azure? That's going to be a really interesting dynamic to watch. If they don't sort of lift cloud and they lift spend, stocks probably going to get punished. But how do you see it here? >> So first of all, you have from a momentum perspective, it's below the 200 50 and 100 day. So it's the opposite of a momentum trade right now. The stock is making lower highs and lower lows. So that is not a good setup. I don't think in any going into any earnings report of being, let's say, washed out. I think that whereas Google Cloud grew at 85% year-over-year, albeit it's much smaller than Microsoft, I still think that the jury's out because ultimately I'm still reflecting on, you know, China clearly owns the open model. Okay. And with Kimmy spending whatever I I we obviously know they're probably distilling anthropic etc. Nonetheless, they are crushing it on their open models. I think the question that we're all dealing with is what the heck are these hyperscalers spending all this money on and what are the results? Because I think whereas Google you have these verticals of their chips, YouTube, etc., etc., we use co-pilot and co-work. It's still mediocre. And so to me, I think when you have these Chinese models working very well, very inexpensive, the US models, especially Microsoft, is still quite clunky. I think that the the to me I think the news is going to be more on the downside because I just think they're still so stuck in the mud of actually are we actually going to all continue to buy co-pilot because now co-work is now usage based and they still haven't even figured out what they're going to charge for that model. So, why am I as a company going to go buy co-work when I'm not exactly sure what they're charging? >> There's so there's so much uh on the line in terms of it's it's not just the the amount they're spending, it's the drain, as Brenn said, on free cash flow. Fact surveyed analysts, they expect Microsoft's free cash flow to go negative in the fourth quarter for the first time since at least 01. Alphabet got punished for that. Then you have, you know, raising debt to help pay for a lot of the uh the buildout to offset some of the free cash flow drain. And then you have the CDS which is is widening in in these names for the you know to levels that we haven't seen in an awfully long time. So that's a a a backdrop that projects some skepticism in the marketplace to say the very least. Right. >> Yeah. And I think it's it's welldeserved skepticism. I mean Microsoft went from in my view the clear winner about a year year and a half ago to the question of what is their strategy? Have they aligned themselves and gotten too deep into the relationship with open AI? And we don't know ultimately if open AI or anthropic will be winners. So Brin talks about Chinese competition. That's actually good for these companies because they could spend less and get not quite equal uh capabilities but the capabilities that they need. So their cost should go down but that's small part of the cost. Data centers are the biggest part of the cost. So there's lots of uncertainty. Look, you know, clearly if they don't hit whatever the whisper number is on cloud growth after seeing Google, then that's going to be a major major issue for them. So it comes down to spend too. Is their spend going to go up? >> Probably. >> Yeah. Don't you expect I mean is is that a rhetorical question in many respects, right? I >> I do expect to because we know that Meadows already said we're going to spend another 40 billion. What? And and you had Open AI increase their spend by 25%. to 750 million. So look, so um so I own Microsoft. It's not one of my bigger positions. Meta is one of my bigger position. >> We'll get there in a minute. Give me a three-year guys on this Microsoft if you if you would in mind. We we'll get to we'll get to meta in in a minute. So I I don't want to go there yet, but Kev, you know, it's so interesting. Um 3 years agoish, maybe not quite that far. This was like the the AI darling. This Sachi Nadella was like deemed to be the man who had led his company into the future sooner than others, right? The OpenAI relationship that they did and now we're asking all these questions about what their strategy is and there are many articles now being written about what his legacy is going to be when everybody sort of had written it in Sharpie but a few years ago. >> Yeah. And I think it was software Scott that really derailed this entire company. You can put IBM sort of in that same conversation. Of the four that we're going to hear from today and tomorrow, I'm most concerned about Microsoft and everyone here on the desk has talked about Azure growth and capex. Those are the two things we want to see. I don't know if the whisper number is 40% or 41%. But I can't imagine a scenario in which this stock's going to pop and report something so constructive that it goes higher. I think all the bad news has been built in and maybe this is just an earnings bar that's incredibly low and if they can just get through it, maybe that in and of itself is a win. >> Okay. So, you're you agree with those who say the the downside risk in that name specifically could be more limited because of the chart that we just showed you more recently. >> So much so that we were buyers of it. So, it went from a 550 repricing down to 350. We were buying in the 370s. there's not that much to show for it at 390, but this isn't a stock. To your point, Scott, I I absolutely agree that the bad news is built in. So, I'm not expecting a 20% selloff, but I'm not expecting anything close to a 20% pop. >> I don't I don't disagree that it's washed out. Just one point to make tonight. Watch out. The wild card is if Microsoft actually steps into the debt market. That's the one hyperscaler. They they're AAA rated. They haven't sold debt since 2017. Everyone else is selling debt. Do they look around and say, "Wait a second. Free cash flow negative. We need to sell some debt as well." Street won't like that. >> I don't know if the street will care. I mean, because the street will care. >> Absolutely. Well, >> let me tell you why I take the other side. Because the others have done it. >> So, they haven't done it. They haven't done it since 2017. It's another >> It's not like the others have been rewarded for [laughter] doing that. >> Right. It's not a badge of honor in the market. >> Agreed. But my point is they haven't been rewarded for not doing it. The stock's done nothing. the stock down. It's the worst performer. So, it sure there could be a marginal hit to it, but I don't look at this being down 10% or so. I mean, they've already cut back in all their buybacks. The buybacks are there, but they're not executing on them in any meaningful way. >> I mean, but it comes it comes down to execution. And I still go back to like first principles. What are the what are they spending all this money for? What? when I can see actually I feel like all of these frontier models will ultimately be commoditized, right? Like that's gonna happen, right? And so they I I I promise you if OpenAI was a public company last week, it would have been been down 40% off that Kimmy news. I think the the questions you asked like the for what like those two words are probably the most important words that investors have right now collectively for what why are you going to spend if you're Microsoft $190 billion for the year why if you are Meta are you going to maybe hit $145 billion for what we think we know what the what is but until we can see it tangibly in front of our faces. We'll continue to ask those questions. >> Sorry, go ahead. >> No, I'm just saying with with with Meta just for what is that? I mean, they started with open open models, right? They started with that and now they're like that doesn't exist anymore. And like they're spending all all these companies are spending all this money hiring all these people in the US, spending billions of dollars on these pay packages. And I go back for what what is the output? Because I will say with Microsoft co-pilot, I wish it were different. Still feels like teams. That's why I use Zoom. And like until Microsoft can make teams like Zoom and co-pilot like Perplexity or Claude, even though Microsoft uses Claude, they can't filter it right. I think Microsoft's going to be in the dog. >> Let's go to let's go to Meta. Um, which is also down on the year. It's also down big from its high. That is a stock chart that represents questions, right? The volatility of a spend for what >> are they going to have now a cloud business too? I don't know Weiss. >> Yeah. So, look, you know, first first of all, through all this, I violated one of my personal investing tenants, which is that never get in front of a capex cycle. And here I've been in front of the capex cycle, you know, on Meta, on Microsoft, and uh it hasn't worked out particularly well. I mean, I'm not suffering in the stocks, just not performing in them. So, that's the first thing. So look with Meta, I have a lot of faith in Zuckerberg. I do think he is a visionary. I do think he looks longterm. I do think he's the best navigator of troubled waters and the quickest to say, you know what, I made a mistake. We saw that time and time again. Going back to mobile, right, way back, what was that almost a decade ago. So uh so I'm comfortable with there. It doesn't mean that short term the stock's going to do well. I think there are still challenges, but I do believe >> there's another one we're watching the CDS like with with like we used to watch like talk about every day the oracles of the world and I'm not really concerned about CDS to me to me CDS, you know, if you're looking at a Leman type situation and a Leman in particular with the risk there. >> Well, I don't think we're talking. >> No, no, we're not. My point is is that I don't see the correlation to the where the CDS trades to what's happening with the fundamentals. >> No, no, no, not at all. But but if nothing else, what we just showed you, the CDS is a representation of where investor concern has risen to that you might as well have meta investor concern rather than meta 5year CDS. Yeah. >> Because that is what that chart represents, doesn't it? >> Yeah. It it it's it's like what the VIX used to do for the market, right? Here's the VIX and you know, volatility and the market's going down. >> But also the CDS is also there's a huge hedging aspect which we have to all like that's complicated. I do think where what Meta does so well and I think it's great, right? They're going to start leasing out like like Elon did with their data centers, leasing out some of that capacity because it's not being used. What they do so well is their targeted ads on Instagram and Facebook etc. Their Ray-B bands, they're now expanding that. That product is a home run. And it's like if they were more focused on I I promise you their Instagram, their ads are going to be awesome because that AI is working. But this other aspect where they're spending this money, I think that's where the jury is still out is what am I getting for all this money? Just focus on what you're amazing at. I think the stock would go much higher. >> How about the how about this fact outside of Apple, which I've you know, you listen to all the conversations about what their valuation has has risen to. >> U a lot of these valuations for these names are at multi-year lows. >> Yeah. Meta I think is a forward of 15 times. Nvidia is >> Meta's like 19, Microsoft's 21, Nvidia's 19, Amazon 27, Alphabet 25. >> They are they are certainly uh on sale. When you look at valuation, I think the conversation tonight for Meta is really going to try and pivot towards the cloud and the introduction of the cloud. Let's remember something. Last quarter, they beat on earnings, they beat on revenue, stock went down. Why? Market didn't like the capex. So, they're going to try their best tonight to steer the conversation away from Capex towards guess what? We brought on Dave Brown. He led Amazon's cloud business. He's an executive here now. He's going to lead our uh attempt to lease out our compute. We potentially have a relationship with >> they're going to try their best. >> They can try and steer it away from the capex as much as they want. Every analyst question is going to be about capex. >> Yeah. Yeah. Can can I take a second on the valuation? Like do not get you know I don't like pees but do not viewers get lured into these lower pees because Google since 2015 has been positive free cash flow. They're negative free cash flow. These companies for 15 plus years have been capitalite high margin buying back shares. These companies have fundamentally changed their stripes. And so I think you have to look at the valuations in a whole new lens because we don't know like you said you don't want to get from a capex cycle. You don't know when that's going to turn. I mean Google cloud lost money for years until it didn't. That it was one vertical. These companies are putting all their chips on and that's why Oracle has been like one of the worst performing stocks. They put all their chips on open AI and so I don't think you can look at the valuation of any of these hyperscalers and have any lens on what their future performance will be based on history. the rest of the world is telling you and I by that I mean semis and and memory that the cap capex cycle has peaked and it's going to recede. >> Well, that's what some are looking at the activity in in semis and and trying to suggest that those are you could look at the charts and make make the argument that those are signs of a of a top. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> But the spending would have you believe otherwise. Well, it's there's there's always a disconnect between when well, let me put it another way. The stocks always trade down in advance of when the spending peaks. So, spending keep going up for another year, maybe even two years, but the stocks will peak anticipating that. And that's why I sold those that I sold because I didn't want to be the last one out. >> The Korean market just continues to get >> hammered. pick your appropriate word. U I was, you know, looking at Highex earlier, which I think had turned green. Now it's down almost 4%. A lot of the other names in the group, did you see Micron now was down 7%. AMD is down 7%. Why is the NASDAQ getting weaker as we were coming on the air today? Well, that is largely a representation of that. KA beat uh shares were not higher on that. There's the stock down almost more than 9%. What What's up with that as Lamb reports today too, which has been overshadowed by all the hyperscalers that are in the news. >> At 9:00 Eastern tonight, we're going to hear from Samsung. They already had the preliminary report. We get the full report tonight. So, in the case of KA Corp, they are in the midst of their worst month since 1987. The stock is down 38% this month. Guess what though? The stock is up still 50% on the year. This is a sub sector of the AI trade that went parabolic. We've talked about that and positioning and sentiment went in the direction of just being extreme. We're working off those extreme conditions right now. If you want to look at the overall market, you can make an argument that as long as oil stays under control, you get the broadening out narrative and it's healthy for the market. I understand that. But at a certain point when capital moves away as significantly as it has, you can expect a V-shaped recovery in a lot of these semi-equipment names. So in the case of KLA Corp, the quarter was okay. It wasn't as good as it needed to be when you have such high expectations. I'm looking at it revenue 7% on Foundry and Logic division. That's not enough. They need to be in high doubledigit territory. Can we can we talk about another AI stock? Uh that being Caterpillar. You guys want to go there because it's been treated as Kev's smiling over there. But it has it's been made an AI stock, hasn't it? The stock's down 25% in the last month. It got downgraded today to neutral at bare target goes to 900 from 1,200. >> What's that? What's that a sign? What is that chart a sign of? I I don't think your analogy could have been any better because if you look at the explosion, it paired an AI trade and here at the similar sell-off, you sold it, Steve. Congratulations. I think that was the right call. I think the $900 $1,000 price range is still there for an investment thesis. But if capex is peing, and that doesn't mean it has to roll over or come down. If it's not increasing exponentially, that's why we're seeing all of these things that are cyclical in nature selling off to the extent that they are. So Caterpillar is not a onetrick pony. We're going to hang on to it, but I think the call is correct, and I don't see the stock going back to 1,200 anytime soon, but I think 900's certainly in the cards. >> You think that you think capex is is peaking? All of the numbers would suggest otherwise. Most of the commentary still thinks, you know, we're when you ask people, well, it's a third inning, fourth inning. >> I don't think it's the third inning. I think it's the seventh inning. I don't think it is peaking to the extent that it won't go higher because I do think over the next year it will appreciate. Is this the stretch that we, you know, we we have a song and then we resume the game or what? >> Stand up and take our hats off cuz this is the seventh inning stretch. They're going to go a little bit higher, but not exponentially. And then to Steve's point, they're going to come back. >> You have cat. >> Hi, Joe. Yeah, I'm not sure what I make of this note because within the note, they talk about the government restrictions. They mentioned New York State the moratorium on building out further data centers. I I don't know enough about that to to >> Don't hold any go elsewhere. That's that's not to me the impediment to continuing capex. You want to turn to the CDS market. Yeah, that's the impediment because if yields put yourself in a in a precarious position where it's not advantageous to access the debt market, then you got to pause on the capex. I think the order book for Caterpillar it needs a reset. I think the entire industrial sector and you could go to GE Vernova, you could look at Verdive, same type of example here. It needed a reset. The order book still has demand there, but to the extent of which we were paying the premium for these stocks just six to eight weeks ago, I don't think it's warranted. >> All right. Oh, yeah. There's a Fed meeting and I mean a Fed decision at 2:00 uh this afternoon which is intriguing for all the reasons other than what actually happens today with rates despite a market that [snorts] has 20 30% or whatever it now is built in that there's going to be uh a hike today descents we'll see forward guidance does it totally go away comms by the Fed task force more on at Goldman today says we're set up for the biggest Fed day surprise since 97 whatever they do right cuz usually if there's going to be a move up or down the market has so anticipated it that you're not at 30%. And now if they don't make a move well how could you be at 30% then they're not they're not going to make a move. How how do we see what happens this afternoon is impacting this market? >> I think there's a very low probability obviously they raise rates his first meeting. I think, you know, we have to give, you know, Kevin some some some rope. He's in a new position. He's obviously a veteran. And I think, you know, you can give no guidance, but you have to like build out your case. And so, I just think it's going to be interesting that all of us are going to be listening. There's low probability of a rate hike. And also, if you think through the inflationary pressures, there's really nothing the Fed raising rates is going to do about oil prices. Raising rates is going to do about data centers. When you actually go into a rate hiking cycle and you're trying to slow the economy, it's a lot of it's to do with lending. And I think everyone would know this. Lending is not easy right now. It's not easy to buy a house right now. So, I think at the end of the day, no rate hike, but we're going to have to get used to his Greenspan type, you know, of of commentary where it's lack of commentary and we're all left guessing, which I think it makes it more interesting as a market. And we'll see what like the Jeff Gunlocks have to say, you know, after after >> he'll join at three as always. What happens, Weiss, if there's just going to be less commentary that you all are going to have to make many of your decisions, if not, you know, in the dark, uh, at least with less light. >> You know what? I've always been a fan of that. I don't want I don't want them to constantly talk about the sauce, how the sausage is being made, and it's being made differently every week depending upon which Fed head talks. So, I'm in favor of that because I also think that what they talk about in between meetings biases what they say or do at the meetings. So, I'm in favor of that. The market is going to have to get used to figuring out figuring out for themselves. So, it will could it cause more volatility? I actually think it'll cause less volatility in the market between Fed meetings. as you get closer to the meeting, the volatility will increase, but I think it's a good thing for markets to have them just, you know, keep some things to themselves. Here's a different take on why I agree there'll be less volatility because I think that the market is very appreciative of an independent Fed and there was a lot of concern with Kevin Worsh going in that maybe this is more of a puppet and clearly if a few weeks is any indication that's not the case and I think it's a fantastic person, the right person and the right policy. Yeah, but some some are saying, well, wouldn't he, you know, initiate a a shot of independence by actually hiking today? And no, but the the other side of that is, well, then you like you're you cut off your nose despite your face because then you've surprised the market so much >> that the market reaction would be so negative. Then what do you really get out of it? You raise your hand and say, "Hey, I'm I'm independent." See, >> I don't think that the the board of governors would vote for it, but I'll bet you he'd like to do it. >> Well, there could be some interesting descents. >> I think I think they would like to to raise some probably. >> I don't think it cures the problems though because if they're relate to oil and the flow through for oil, hiking rates really just isn't going to do anything. That's all about Iran. >> If they keep the market on the edge of its seat that maybe a rate hike is coming, not today, but at a future meeting, what's the effect on the dollar? I'd love to hear from Jeffrey when you talk to him today. The dollar has been rising. The consequence of that is capital moves out of the emerging markets and developed international. You realize the Nikk is down 12% this month. The emerging markets are down nearly 10%. So a higher dollar is going to have that punitive effect on capital and leverage moving out of those markets. >> All right, let's let's squeeze a break in. Let's do that. >> Hey everybody, welcome to Blue Cloud Trading. I'm George. That was the first clip from CNBC from the halftime report earlier today, July 29th. Right now, the market is closed. It's actually almost 5:00 p.m. as I'm recording this video. And we're going to go over a number of the stocks that they talked about and ETFs in that first clip. Then I'll take a look at the second clip and do more analysis and uh also cover the indices at the end like the SPY, the Q, the Dow, the Russell. Uh just so you guys know what's happening right now. Like I said, it's I'm recording this at 4:58 p.m. Uh the markets were down today. You can see the Dow Jones, for example, was it gapped down in the morning. It moved sideways and then it continued to drop around 3 p.m. Same thing here with the NASDAQ. Actually, that continued dropping, made a little bit of a recovery here. Was actually positive uh at this time around between 2:30 and 3 p.m. And then it dropped again down 1.74. Same thing with the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. And basically what was the cause of that? Pretty much I think the Federal Reserve, you know, because they left the interest rates unchanged in a closely split decision with three officials dissenting in favor of a hike amid persistently hot inflation. So yeah, Treasury yields moved higher, including a sharp rise in the 30-year yield as investors priced an increased odds of a possible September rate increase. The technology and semiconductor groups were among the weakest sectors with energy was one of the few sectors to finish higher. And just uh let me just show you guys what the heat map looked like. It was pretty a lot of red as you can see here. Just the consumer defensive stocks like Walmart Costco Coca-Cola Target Dollar General, that was up. Visa was up 58. Google was up 0.9. Energy stocks were did pretty well today. uh and so did some of the software stocks like Uber and CRM and now Adobe. Okay, so let's go ahead and take a look at the stocks that they just talked about. So we'll start off with Microsoft. As you can see here, it's in a still in a decline obviously on the weekly chart. We're still under the cloud today. They came out with earnings, right? So we do, as you can see here, July 29th. So let's take a look and see what the chart looks like. I'm going to switch it to a daily chart. So this was today's candle. Still under the Ichimoku cloud. We're using the Ichimoku indicator, which when price is under the cloud, that's pretty bearish. We're also under that 200 declining day moving average. Uh let's see what happened after the after hours, it popped. All right, so it was up 2.20%. In fact, um if you looked, you know, throughout all of these stocks here, post market, that was the only stock that was up 2.22%. I mean, look at this. KAC down 11.49. some big drops. [snorts] Um, so yeah, let me switch it back to regular. So this is where everything closed at the end of the day. So let's go ahead and look at Google, which was actually up, one of the few stocks that was up.9%. It's moved for for four days in a row here. Um, but nothing major here. In fact, price is stalling right at the green line, which is the nine period on the Ichimoku indicator. So it's unlike most indic uh moving averages. Notice how it flattens out. That's because it takes the midpoint of each of the candles, the last nine periods, not the closing price. That's why you'll see it sometimes flatten out like you see here. And the red line is the 26th period. Does the same thing. Takes the highs and lows, divides that by two, the midpoint of each of the last 26 periods. So Google, although it was up today.9%, it's still, if you look at the weekly chart, it's still under the both of the moving averages. Okay. XLK declined. That's the technology sector ETF down 2.64. This is the weekly chart. Here's the daily today. Closed under the cloud. Not a good sign. You'll notice how we have a bearish cloud here with Ichimoku. So, listen, we've had a heads up about this with this indicator. It's been telling us to be very careful to not be adding positions while price, for example, remains under the moving averages. And okay, we we've started to create a series of lower highs. As you can see here, right, as time has progressed, you can see the downward trend right there. So, we're in a downward channel in technology. All right, no surprises. Uh, let's look at Meta, which is also under the cloud, bearish. You can see all the the red days here. Okay, if you look at the weekly chart on Meta, still under the cloud. Amazon on the weekly is inside the cloud for a couple of weeks now. Here's the daily, very bearish, still lower highs, lower lows. Uh what about Oracle? Still in a decline. Look at that decline. Right. So again, just because price drops significantly in a stock doesn't necessarily mean, oh, this is the the perfect time to to to jump in. We don't know how much further this decline is going to be. We need to see some more uh buying pressure and that's not happening right now. The the bulls are not in control of uh the markets at this point. um SOXX the semiconductor sector index fund also declining still it's under the cloud we have a bearish future cloud now what is that that's when the sync span A the light color blue line crosses under the synchro span B how is that how are these derived how is this cloud plotted what's it based on well the synchro span A the light color blue line is actually the midpoint of these two moving averages the 26 and the 9 so it takes the midpoint projects that 26 periods into the future. Boom, there it is. What about the purple line? That's the midpoint of the last 52 periods. Instead of plotting it above or below the candle, it's plotted 26 periods into the future. Okay, so um that's what creates the cloud. Things are bearish when price is under the cloud. Things are also indecisive when price is inside the cloud. And when you start seeing crossovers, negative crossovers, for example, the nine, the green line crossing into the red line, that's also bearish. This white line here is the current price projected 26 periods ago in a white in a line form. And if that white line is under the candle 26 periods ago, that's bearish. All right, so it's not looking good on the daily. Let's look at Nvidia under the 200 day. Still in a downward channel, down three and a half%. We don't need to say anymore. Micron under the cloud. Okay, I told you guys yesterday we closed yesterday under that level of support, the 85435 and we were the only positive thing is the fact that we were still inside the cloud. Right now we're under and look at the volume increasing day after day. All right, here's AMD Advanced Micro Devices. Their next earnings are on August 4th. So again, you know, like when the earnings come out, that could certainly shift these stocks back into the to the upside, but you know, right now things are not looking particularly peachy and rosy, right? AMD down 5.51%. Here's KLAC, KLA Corporation, as you can see here, still dropping. I got lucky on this one. I'm not going to lie. I got lucky because I did add back on June 29th. Got out just a few days later. Perfect timing. uh it started going against me and I closed the position when price gapped down. But >> [snorts] >> uh and you guys can find out about my trades if you become a blue cloud trader or blue cloud legend level member. You can access the videos that I do, the member only videos. I'll talk about that at the end. Uh LRCX Lamb Research uh is another one that I got out of uh by the skin of my teeth with just a 3.1% profit there from June 29th. Got out on July 1st. You can see how that led to a 35.9% drop after which is crazy. Uh now Lamb Research, okay, they also came out with their earnings uh after hours. Let's see what that's looking out like right now. It was down 6.4% at 4 p.m. Let's see what post market looks like. Okay, so it's moved up slightly. All right, it's still down83%. Let's look at the 3minut chart. So here is the earnings announcement after hours. You see a gap up uh not gap up but the move up. And so it's reversing course which is good. Uh would I be adding positions here? No, because we're still in a um embedded decline under the cloud. Caterpillar. Let's look at this one. We have to see the close. Okay, so it closed down 6.91%. That one closed under the cloud yesterday. So you can see the advantage of using technical analysis. At a minimum, it will keep you out of adding positions in stocks that are weak. All right, that's it's not going to predict the future, but it's going to tell you what's happening over the last the course of a specific period of time. You can choose the time frame you want to trade. Maybe you maybe you don't want to do the daily. Maybe you want to do a 30-inut chart. Okay, you switch it to a 30-minut chart. This does it look any better here? Not really. Price has been under the 200 for a long time. Um, the last time it kind of made sense to be in this stock was probably back here on June 30th. Since then, it's dropped 26.6%. You can see how we were under the 200. The whole time here once price got under that was very bearish. GEV is GE Vernova. This is the 30-inut chart. Let's look at the daily chart. Also bearish. Okay, nothing to do here either. Utilities as a sector hasn't really been performing that well recently. VRT, Verdive Holdings, technology sector, electronic components, gap down 17.26%. Again, we had warnings all the way back here that we should not be adding positions, right? From since May 18th, it's dropped 33.33%. Uh what about the US dollar? That's down.56%. UUP is an ETF. Uh and that looks relatively stable here on the daily. Let's look at the weekly chart. We're above the cloud. So, the US dollar has been strengthening week after week here as the market has been stagnant. All right, now let's continue with a second clip from CNBC and then I'll do some more analysis right after that. Show you the Dow here. We were down by more than 900. Paired that just a smidge, but you've got weakness today. We mentioned Caterpillar uh is causing a lot of pain within the Dow today. Boeing's down. Goldman is uh a significant >> Yeah. >> loser there too, down more than 4%. So JPM is as well. Uh we'll continue to watch that. >> Just one thing on Goldman if I could. >> Yeah, go ahead. >> Uh this is trading down I believe in addition to market being down because now there's some doubts about the IPO cycle and about M&A with the uncertainty in the market with rates going back up 10 years now at at four 4.6. So I think that's influencing the trading Goldman >> under a thousand now right remember it's been got took a minute to get above give me a little uh a longer view of that like a month if you could guys please. >> Well they had unbelievable earnings. >> Yeah >> but a lot of people owned it and let's face it was it did have premium valuation all these banks did to what their historical trading range had been. Um but to me that's what's driving it. You can't keep having technology go down day after day after day when that's supposed to be the heart of the cycle, particularly after you had SK Heinix fail, right? And and SpaceX fail. So now people are questioning, is this the right time? Will they be able to generate these fees now? >> Well, SpaceX was fail. SpaceX was a SpaceX was a successful IP. I mean, the stock is at 112. Your points. >> I know what your point I know what point you're making is that it's below the the IPO price. To me, that's that that's that's failing, >> right? Short term, >> the average the average return for an IPO one year later. Yeah, the average return for an IPO one year later is negative 50%. It's like on par. IPOs don't typically trade well after they IPO. So, to me, it was a successful IPO. On par with bad performance the first year. >> All right, so let's get to some moves that Kevin, our man Kevin has. Uh, you bought more Visa. Uh, so they had earnings. The target today at BFA goes to 430 from 410. Why'd you buy more here? >> I mean, that's an aggressive price target. We were thinking 400. I'd love to see it go there. We picked this up before earnings. And this is a story, I think, over the entire earning season, Scott. It's have and have nots. If you deliver, you're going to be rewarded. And so many companies have it. But this this report was unbelievable. Payment volume was up 10%, process transactions up 10%. C crossborder volume up 13%. And most important for us, revenue grew 14%. It's also a tale of the consumer. consumer is not slowing down. This is a great story for the economy, a great story for Visa. Brit and I own it. It's fantastic. >> Okay. Uh from penthouse to outouse Netflix. >> So this isn't >> you bought more. >> So full disclosure, this is in our growth strategy where we tend to take a little bit more risk. And my my thought process here is, you know, sometimes good things happen to cheap stocks. And I look at this like a year into the future, we may all turn around and say, man, we could have bought Netflix in the 60s. Why didn't we? And this is a story where right now in the summer, none of the top shows that I think any of us are watching are on Netflix, but this is a story that I think it's getting cheap enough that I look at the turnaround over the next six months, maybe two quarters. >> Can we broaden that out, please? Um to to show what I'm talking about, right? uh this thing was at the top of the mountain and now very few people love this name or it's certainly a a hot debate stock within the market and I feel like the naysayers have been winning more than the the boosters. >> Yes, tight leash, but I think it's a good buy at 70 bucks. >> What do you think? >> Um I've tried to buy the stock several times. I've traded around it, gone in, gone out. I think as it relates to all the streamers, costs are going to remain elevated. competition is as intense as we've ever seen and there seems to be the fixation on live entertainment and live sports and with that comes a significant price tag that they all are going to be competing for >> access the market had rewarded those moves by Netflix before it loved the idea that it was having a foothold now in the in the NFL and that it was expanding into other live sporting events now we're we're questioning that because of what it costs I think over the last 18 months, and that's where you really have to look back at Netflix. It peaked out in June of 2025. That's when you began to see the moderation in the revenue growth. That's where you began to see that the earnings reports were coming in just good enough, not exceeding the expectations like they were prior to June of 25. I thought prior to June of 25, you had some really blockbuster earnings results. >> But if you look at it today though, it's recovered its earnings ball from last week. So, I mean, to me, from an entry point, Netflix reminds me of Uber. Like, if you price it, if you if you buy it right in the low 60s, sell it in the mid70s, you can make money. But I think like Uber and Netflix from a long-term hold, you really need to trade these names because I agree with every what everyone said. But I think at these levels, it could easily be a $80 stock on no news. And that's up 1% when the Dow's down what, 850 points to me is like a good defensive outside of AI, outside of all these other things that's working. I I think the the the biggest issue for me and I sold it mostly out of boredom. I didn't see it go anywhere. I want to be more cash. The company said we're worried about growth. So there's got to be a reset of how the market thinks about number one. And to your to your point about the NFL, they haven't seen any major uptick in subscriber growth since they went into the NFL and they're going to spend more. So that's become more of a cost of admission than a growth driver. May maybe investors are also somewhat questioning what their quote unquote game plan >> exactly >> is because you know if you're involved in the bidding for Warner Brothers and then I think there was another another you know story that they were maybe you know interested in something else that well what are you getting at what are you what are you after here what was a stated uh grow organically rather than by acquisition that the company even laid out in its own words at one point in time. Has that changed? Like what is the endgame? >> It's a legitimate criticism because the identity has shifted. We're not going to make an acquisition. Well, now we're going to now we're going to make an acquisition. >> Say that. >> I mean, they said it for years and then they then they changed. But they also said they were never going to do ads and they changed and that became very profitable. This next acquisition is going to cost an arm and a leg. They have it. And can you imagine Sunday Night Football on Netflix? I think that's coming. They're not clear in their own strategy. For example, now the rumors are they're going to be to be offering the ability to subscribe to other streaming services on their site, try to clip pennies there. So until they know their strategy, until they can express it, I'm just not willing to >> peacock, Apple TV, Amazon Prime, the market share leadership that Netflix had two years ago is not the same today. >> Churn's still low. We'll take a break. What's your final? >> My final, Scott, is Steel Dynamics. We've had a lot of success with this in our growth portfolio. I'm going with the 10-year. I can't tell you yields aren't going to go higher, but it's a good entry point. >> CBRE should be a 170 sock. >> Tim Cook goes out on top. Apple tomorrow. We'll be looking forward to that, too. I'll see you at three. >> All right, so let's start off with Netflix and uh as you can see here on the daily chart, still in a very very uh embedded decline here. You look at the weekly chart, folks, and it hasn't looked good here for a while, right? Right, we had a negative crossover on the weekly chart right there back on October of last year and since then it's dropped 39%. So I'd hold off on that one obviously. Now there has been a little bit of a move up 1.71%. These can be very short-term short-lived moves, okay, when you are in a embedded decline. You can see here that we got above the cloud briefly on the daily chart. That was back on March 26th of 2026. But if you switch to the weekly, all right, and we go to March 26, 2026, look where we were right under the weekly chart, which is imper, this is why it's so imperative, in my opinion, to look at both the weekly and daily time frame. Look at the charts. Make sure that the weekly is giving you the same story that it's telling you that okay, it's all right to get in. When is it okay to get in? When price gets above the cloud. Look at this over here. This happened back on June 16th, 2023. That led to a move up 215% over two years in Netflix. Since that high, it's dropped 44.4%. And things started to go negative right there where price got under the nine period. So obviously there's different levels of support and they can be shortlived, right? So you can see like little pullbacks where price gets under the nine period, then it recovers, gets back above, and then it moves moves again. Same thing here as it stairstepped its way back up. Now it's stairstepping its way downwards. Right? So, we've got a series of lower highs and we're in lower lows. Okay, so that's not good. Let's see. Uh, STLD, which was down 2.85%. Here's a weekly chart. It's been moving up these last four weeks. Uh, let's look at the daily chart for a moment. Uh, here's another one that I got out of um in a pretty optimal um point. And and and those of you who are members, you can go back to that date uh Friday, June 12th. Check out the video from June 12th uh from our members videos and you'll see that I did in fact close out of that position on that Friday but uh out of STLD. So what's happened since then? It's pulled back. It found support inside the cloud. It's it started to bounce back in and move up. However, uh today price gapped up. Things were looking positive in the early morning but then it dropped right back in. So if you look at switch it to a 3minut chart, it shows you that that initial gap up to the opening price here and then it just spent the rest of the day dropping about 4.88% from the move up from the opening price. All right, so that's a big decline. What about CBRE? Let's look at the daily chart on that one. Here it is. And this one also came out with earnings today. Right. So this is uh this is where it closed. It was up.5% at 4 p.m. Let's see what uh CBRE Group looks like post market. Ooh, it dropped. So, a shooting star. That's never a good sign. Uh expect this one to potentially pull back more tomorrow. Okay. All right. Let's let me switch it back to regular hours and then go to the next thing that we're going to cover, which is the SPY ETF. SPY was down 1.54. This is the S&P 500 ETF. Big drop. It's still in the box, but it's not looking particularly bullish here. You can see the negative DI on the directional movement index is above the positive DI high volume. That's not good. Uh what about the weekly chart on this buy? It's still, like I said, still stuck in here currently under the 9 period. The Q's is under the nine period still for three weeks in a row. On the daily chart, it's under the cloud. So bearish. Okay, we've we've been talking about this for a while. Uh Dow Jones DIA ETF, we've got a lower high, okay, here from the prior high. So, that's not good. And price today gapped down and dropped. Now, it it still has support at 51297. Hasn't taken that out from this low. So, we'll see if it can um basically bounce there. Russell 2000 is also still inside the box. Uh let's see if it too can potentially move up. It looks like it might be slightly under it right there actually now that I think of it, but it's it's also above the cloud. So, we'll see if the Russell can recover. There's a weekly chart. It's currently under the 9 period. We we'll know what this looks like on Friday because it is a weekly chart. The VIX spiked 13.45%. It was moved up to 20.66 and entered the cloud, which is not a good sign. We don't want to see that because the VIX is volatility and it's uh basically represents fear in the markets. FE the Euro stocks 50 is still under that 70 52 on the weekly and on the daily it's just been moving sideways. Gold actually was up46% today. So that's interesting. It's still inside the box here in this decline. So gold has been declining for a little while but it it appears to have stabilized around the 36232. That's a level that I'd be watching. Whoops. And then silver was up just.14% also uh basically holding above let's see the low there is around 4979. So if it can hold up above that then it could potentially reverse course uh as especially if the stocks start to drop you know investors are going to be looking for other areas to invest in cheaper places to be and silver and gold have declined enough. I think that we may potentially see uh a move back into those. All right, now we covered all that. Let's take a look, guys, at one more thing, membership and subscribing. It takes 5 seconds, hit the subscribe button, hit the notification bell. And if you want to get access to these member only videos, make sure to hit the join button, which is right next to it. You do need to select BlueCloud Trader in order to get access to those member onlyly videos. And then under BlueCloud Legend, you'll get access to those member only videos, but there are also daily trade updates on my trades. So, every day I share with legend level members in a post uh all the trades. Usually between 1 and 2 uh p.m. somewhere in that vicinity of time. And so, these are the member only videos and the posts. You'll find once you become a member, there'll be a new tab that pops up that says membership. If you guys want more info, maybe you guys like the software that I'm using, TC2000, uh you what you can do is get a $25 coupon. 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