WE STARTED ADDING IT TO OUR VALUE PORTFOLIO ACTUALLY USED PROCEEDS FROM APPLE EARLIER THIS WEEK TO CONTINUE THAT.
Contexto
"WE STARTED ADDING IT TO OUR VALUE PORTFOLIO ACTUALLY USED PROCEEDS FROM APPLE EARLIER THIS WEEK TO CONTINUE THAT. IT HAS BEEN TRADING LIKE A VALUE STOCK."
WE HAVE SOLD A CHUNK OF OUR HOLDINGS GOING INTO EARNINGS BECAUSE IT HAD BEEN SUCH A STRONG PERFORMER RELATIVE TO EVERYTHING ELSE.
Contexto
"WE HAVE SOLD A CHUNK OF OUR HOLDINGS GOING INTO EARNINGS BECAUSE IT HAD BEEN SUCH A STRONG PERFORMER RELATIVE TO EVERYTHING ELSE. WE THOUGHT SOME OF THE GOOD NEWS WAS PRICED AGAIN AND WE WANTED TO FUND NAMES LIKE AMAZON THAT HAD NOT PARTICIPATED IN THE RALLY."
Transcrição Completa
"BLOOMBERG TECH"
IS LIVE FROM THE HEART OF SILICON VALLEY WITH ED LUDLOW
IN SAN FRANCISCO. ED: COMING UP, TIM COOK'S FINAL
APPLE EARNINGS CALL AS CEO IS A STORY OF SUPPLY CRUTCHES,
DEMAND MISREADS AND A TOUGH OUTLOOK.
AI SHARES ON BIG SPENDING AND ACCELERATED CLOUD GROWTH.
AFTER OPENAI'S BREACHES, IT IS NO ANTHROPIC STERN WITH THE
COMPANY SAYING IT'S A ARE MODELS BREACHED THREE
ORGANIZATIONS DURING CYBERSECURITY TESTS.
WE HAVE THE DETAILS. THE TECHNOLOGY EARNINGS, AND A
VERY BIG REACTION IN STOCKS. APPLE IS ON TRACK FOR ITS
BIGGEST DROP SINCE MARCH OF 2020. AMAZON IS ON TRACK FOR ITS
BIGGEST JUMP SINCE APRIL OF 2012. LET'S GET THE STORIES. LET'S START WITH APPLE.
EVERYTHING WE NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TIM COOK'S FINAL QUARTER
AS CEO OF APPLE. >> I THINK THE MAJOR TAKE AWAY
FROM APPLE'S REPORT WAS HOW MUCH THE INCREASE IN MEMORY
PRICES IS REALLY STARTING TO WEIGH ON THE COMPANY.
THEY TALKED A LOT ABOUT COMPONENT SHORTAGES.
PEOPLE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED THAT THE MEMORY ISSUE WILL EAT INTO
THEIR MARGINS, POTENTIALLY EAT INTO DEMAND.
THE STOCK HAD NOT REALLY BEEN REFLECTING A LOT OF THESE
CONCERNS GOING INTO THE REPORT. IT HAD A VERY STRONG MONTH
GOING INTO IT. I THINK THIS IS PART OF THE
OVERALL ANTI-AI SENTIMENT. NOW IT SEEMS LIKE THAT IS
FLIPPED AGAIN AND PEOPLE ARE REASSESSING THE ISSUES APPLE IS
FACING, EVEN AS THEY MAY BE TAKE A NEW LOOK AT SOME OF THE
AI NAMES THAT HAD BEEN SELLING OFF PRIOR TO THIS. ED:
APPLE SAYING REVENUE GROWTH IN THE SEPTEMBER QUARTER 9% TO 11%.
THE STREET WAS LOOKING AT 12% AND THEY ADMITTED THEY
MISJUDGED DEMAND. AMAZON, THERE IS GROWTH IN AWS.
THERE IS CLEARLY A HIGH DEMAND -- CELEARLY AI DEMAND. RYAN:
THEY HAVE SET THE CHIP BUSINESS IS SEEING DEMAND.
STRONG REPORT OUT OF AMAZON. I THINK IT HIGHLIGHTS THE
DIVIDE WE'VE SEEN THIS EARNINGS SEASON BETWEEN THE COMPANIES
THAT ARE ABLE TO DO A LOT OF AI RELATED SPENDING BUT MAKE THE
CASE THAT THEY ARE JUSTIFYING THAT WITH IMPROVED GROWTH, WITH
IMPROVED PROSPECTS. YOU PUT AMAZON AND MICROSOFT
INTO ONE BUCKET. BOTH OF THOSE COMPANIES HAD
POWERFUL REACTION TO THE RESULTS.
I THINK PEOPLE WERE REASSESSING THEIR OUTLOOKS FOLLOWING THE
STRONG RESULTS FROM THE CLOUD BUSINESS, EVEN IN THE FACE OF
HIGHER SPENDING. ON THE OTHERS YOU HAD ALPHABET
AND META, MAY BE DID NOT DO AS GOOD OF A JOB.
YOU SAW THOSE STOCKS COME BACK. ED:
AMAZON DID RAISE BY $20 BILLION IN PART BECAUSE THE COST
ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHER. TO OUR NEXT GUEST, AMAZON'S SET
OF NUMBERS DEFINED GAME CHANGER. THE MANAGING DIRECTOR AND
SECTOR SPECIALIST FOR TECH MEDIA AND TELECOM AT MIZUHO
SECURITIES IS WITH US. WHAT WAS IT ABOUT AMAZON'S
NUMBERS THAT YOU LIKED? >> I DEFINITELY THINK IT WAS A
GAME CHANGER BECAUSE OF THE EXHILARATION IN AWS GROWTH ON
THE TOP LINE AT 37% I THINK HAS CONVINCED MORE PEOPLE THAT AI
IS IMPROVING THEIR OVERALL BUSINESS.
AND THEN THE DISCLOSURE THEY GAVE IN TERMS OF HOW AI IS
IMPACTING THEM ON THE SILICON SIDE WITH THEIR TRAINING CHIP,
THEY ARE WELL-POSITIONED. ALL IN ALL, THE BOOKINGS
GROWTH, THE BACKLOG AND COMMENTARY FROM ANDY JASSY
ABOUT WHAT IS TO COME I THINK SET THIS STOCK UP TO CONTINUE
TO OUTPERFORM GOING FORWARD. ED: AMAZON SAID ITS CHIP BUSINESS
WHERE IT RENTS COMPUTE CAPACITY, BUT BASED ON THEIR
IN-HOUSE SILICON HAS A RUN RATE OF $25 MILLION.
ARE YOU EXTRAPOLATING AND SAYING THAT IS ANOTHER LINE OF
BUSINESS WHERE AMAZON CAN GET SMART SIDE? JORDAN: IT'S SHOWING HOW MUCH BENEFIT
THAT THEY GET FROM HAVING THEIR OWN CUSTOM CHIP.
NOT ONLY DOES IT ENABLE THEM TO GET SUPPLY, BECAUSE IT'S SO
DIFFICULT TO GET GRAPHIC PROCESSORS FROM NVIDIA, IT ALSO
ENABLES THEM TO OFFER THAT TO THEIR CUSTOMERS PROBABLY AT A
LOWER COST. YOU WIN ON BOTH SIDES, SUPPLY AND COST. THEIR
MARGINS ARE GOING UP VERY HEALTHILY.
I THINK THAT IS ENCOURAGING TO INVESTORS, BECAUSE ALL THESE
COMPANIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPEND, THEY NEED MORE COMPUTE,
MORE CAPACITY, BUT THEY SEE PRESSURE ON THE MARGINS AND
CASH FLOW. EVEN THOUGH AMAZON'S CASH FLOW
WAS NEGATIVE FOR THE LAST 12 MONTHS, THEIR MARGINS IN THEIR
AWS BUSINESS ARE INCREASINGLY GOING HIGHER. ED:
SOME POINT OUT ON THE CHIP BUSINESS THEY ARE NOT
SURRENDERING ANY MARGIN TO NVIDIA IF THEY GO WITH IN-HOUSE
SILICON. DO YOU HAVE ANY AMAZON ECHO
DEVICES IN YOUR HOUSEHOLD? JORDAN: YEAH, I HAVE ONE. ED:
HOW MANY DAYS A WEEK WOULD YOU SAY YOU HAVE AN AMAZON PRIME
PACKAGE ON YOUR DOORSTEP? JORDAN:
EVERY OTHER DAY AT LEAST. ED: WHAT I FOUND SO, INTERESTING
WITH THE OTHER DATA POINTS THE NONFINANCIAL, WHERE THEY SAY
HERE IS EVIDENCE THAT PEOPLE THAT USE ALEXA PLUS, THEIR
CONSUMER FACING AI, ARE MORE LIKELY TO SIGN UP FOR PRIME,
ARE MORE LIKELY TO SPEND IN A GREATER BASKET SIZE ON
AMAZON.COM. HAS ANYONE BROUGHT THAT UP ON
YOUR DESK? JORDAN: ACTUALLY, NO. I THINK PEOPLE ARE SO FOCUSED
ON THE AI, THE DATA CENTER SIDE OF THE BUSINESS BECAUSE IT
DRIVES ALL THE PROFIT THAT THEY ARE NOT AS CONCERNED OR WORRIED
ABOUT E-COMMERCE, WHERE THEY ARE DOING VERY WELL.
I THINK THAT IS A GOOD THING. YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM GET
MORE VALUE OR CREDIT FOR THEIR STRANGE -- FOR THEIR STRENGTH,
THEIR BRAND. WHY DOES AMAZON TRADE AT 40'S
MULTIPLE WHEN YOU LOOK AT COSTCO AND WALMART'S VALUATIONS.
ED: WE ARE A HOUSEHOLD WHERE MY ECHO DEVICE COMPETES WITH MY
BABY AS THE ALARM CLOCK EVERY MORNING AND WE HAVE NOT MOVED
BEYOND THAT ON THE AI SIDE. YOU HEARD RYAN TALK ABOUT APPLE
WAS THE AI SAFETY TRADE IN A WAY.
IN APPLE THIS IS A HELL OF A REACTION IN THE STOCK.
THERE IS NO SENTIMENTALITY FOR TIM COOK'S FINAL EARNINGS CALL.
YOU TALK ABOUT THAT IN YOUR NOTE.
WHAT ARE YOU MAKING OF ALL OF IT? JORDAN:
I WOULD TELL PEOPLE THAT THE MOVE DOWN 9% IS PROBABLY MORE
THAN THE ACTUAL RESULTS WOULD SUGGEST. THAT'S BECAUSE THE
STOCK HAS MATERIALLY OUTPERFORMED TECH AND THE MAG 7
OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. THERE WAS A TON OF MONEY HIDING
IN APPLE AS LIKE THE ANTI-SAFETY AI TRADE.
THAT IS GOING TO COME OUT AND GO BACK TO MICROSOFT AND AMAZON
AND OTHERS. WHAT I WOULD MAKE OF IT IS THEY
WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHER RISK AND STRUGGLING A BIT, NOT ONLY
IN IPHONE TO GET COMPONENTS AND SUPPLY, BUT THEIR SERVICES
BUSINESS MISSED. THAT IS WHERE THEY GET A LOT OF
PROFIT MARGIN. IT SOUNDS LIKE THAT WILL REMAIN
AT A LOWER GROWTH RATE AS YOU LOOK INTO THE END OF THE YEAR.
MY CONCERN, AND THIS IS WHY I WOULD NOT BE CHASING APPLE DOWN
9%, IS THERE GOING INTO THEIR IPHONE 18 LAUNCH CYCLE.
I FEEL LIKE THE RISK IS THAT YOU GO INTO A NEW PRODUCT CYCLE
AND YOU CANNOT GET ENOUGH COMPONENTS, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN
FOR YOUR ABILITY TO BEAT AND RAISE NUMBERS?
I DON'T THINK IT IS GOOD. ED: SO THIS IS A PEOPLE STORY AS
WELL. TIM COOK, A CORE FACET OF HIS
CAREER HAS BEEN HIS ABILITY TO MANAGE OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN, AND
HE MADE THE ADMISSION THAT THEY MISCALCULATED HOW MANY
PROCESSORS THEY SHOULD ORDER. IN SEPTEMBER, IN THE LAUNCH
CYCLE FOR THE 18, HE HANDS THE REINS TO A PRODUCT GUY. JORDAN:
I DON'T ACTUALLY THINK PEOPLE ARE ALL THAT WORRIED ABOUT THE
MANAGEMENT TRANSITION. I THINK THEY WILL BE STATUS QUO.
THEY WILL FOCUS ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN. THAT IS WHAT THEY DO BEST. I
THINK THEY NEED TO HAVE A GOOD FLASHY LAUNCH WITH THIS
FLOATABLE PRODUCT. THAT COULD GO A LONG WAY TO
HELPING TERNUS, EVEN THOUGH THAT WAS PROBABLY PUT INTO
PLACE WELL BEFORE HE TOOK THE REINS, BUT IT WOULD HELP ON THE
MARGIN TO CONVINCE PEOPLE THAT THEY HAVE A NEW INNOVATIONS
COMING. END OF DAY, IT IS ABOUT HOW
MUCH OUR CONSUMERS -- HOW MUCH ARE CONSUMERS WILLING TO SPEND?
THEY ARE DOING WELL WITH MACS WHERE THEY RAISED PRICES AND
CANNOT SHIP ENOUGH PRODUCT TO MEET DEMAND.
COME EARLY NEXT YEAR, AFTER THE LAUNCH QUARTER IN THE FALL IS
BEHIND THEM AND THEY RAISED PRICES, IS DEMAND HOLDING UP AS
WELL GIVEN THE HIGHER COSTS? WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND FIND
OUT. I THINK IT IS UNDETERMINED. JORDAN: -- ED:
A DECLINE OF 9% IN THE SESSION. JORDAN KLEIN AT MIZUHO.
READ HIS END OF JULY NOTE. COMING UP, CONCERNS ABOUT
CHINESE AI START OF MOONSHOT GROWTH FOLLOWING A BLOOMBERG
REPORT IT HAS A COMPUTING POWER AGREEMENT WITH ALIBABA WHICH
USES OR RELIES ON NVIDIA CHIPS. WE HAVE THE DETAILS NEXT.
THIS IS "BLOOMBERG TECH." ED: CHINESE AI CHAMPION MOONSHOT
HAS A COMPUTING POWER AGREEMENT WITH ALIBABA FOR THE USE OF
AROUND 20,000 NVIDIA CHIPS, ACCORDING TO SOURCES.
THOSE SOURCES SAY THE HARDWARE FORMS A SUBSTANTIAL CHUNK OF
THE COMPUTING CAPACITY MOONSHOT USES FOR ITS KIMI MODELS, THE
LATEST OF WHICH RIVAL U.S. COMPETITORS.
WASHINGTON HAD RESTRICTED CHINA'S ACCESS TO SOME
GENERATIONS OF NVIDIA CHIP ON NATIONAL SECURITY GROUNDS.
LET'S START WITH THE BASICS OF WHAT WE ARE REPORTING. PETER: JUST TO BACK UP ONE STEP,
MOONSHOT ANNOUNCED ITSELF TO THE WESTERN WORLD A COUPLE
WEEKS AGO, WHERE IT CAME OUT WITH THIS KIMI K3 MODEL WHICH
HAS STRONG PERFORMANCE, NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONTIER LABS IN THE MODELS AT OPENAI AND ANTHROPIC.
HOW DO THEY DO IT? WE KNOW THERE HAS BEEN
BREAKTHROUGH ENGINEERING AT A NUMBER OF THE CHINESE COMPANIES.
DEEPSEEK WAS THE PHENOMENON LAST YEAR, BUT NOW THE
QUESTIONS ARE AROUND MOONSHOT AND HOW THEY PULL THIS OFF.
WE'VE SEEN A COUPLE BITS AND PIECES OF IT, BUT THIS HELPS US
UNDERSTAND THE BROADER PICTURE. WE KNOW ALIBABA HAS AN
INVESTMENT IN MOONSHOT. WHAT WE WERE REPORTING IN THIS
STORY IS ALIBABA IS SUPPLYING A BUNCH OF THE COMPUTING POWER
BEHIND THAT MODEL. WE KNOW THEY ARE USING 20,000
NVIDIA CHIPS, THE HOPPER GENERATION.
ALIBABA SAID THEY ARE NOT THE H200 CHIPS, WHICH ARE THE
LEADING EDGE. OUR SOURCES TOLD US THEY
ACTUALLY ARE THOSE H200 CHIPS, BUT THE HOPPER GENERATION.
MOONSHOT HAS BEEN ABLE TO USE THAT TO BUILD OUT THIS MODEL.
WE HAVE THE WHITE HOUSE SAYING THEY BELIEVE THEY ARE ALSO
ACCESSING GRACE BLACKWELL CHIPS, EVEN MORE ADVANCED CHIPS
FROM NVIDIA. ED: WE ARE SHOWING THAT
COMMUNICATION FROM ALIBABA ON WHAT THEY ARE DENYING AND WHAT
THEY ARE NOT. IT IS WORTH A DISCUSSION OF
WHAT WE DON'T KNOW. FOR A LONG TIME WE HAVE BEEN
ASKING ABOUT HOW MANY NVIDIA CHIPS ARE GOING INTO CHINA?
ARE CHINESE FIRMS USING THIS TECHNOLOGY OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES AND CHINA? POSE SOME OF THOSE QUESTIONS
FOR US. PETER: IT IS A COMPLICATED PICTURE,
AND WE HAVE THIS SHIFTING REGIME OF EXPORT REGULATIONS
THAT AFFECTED A BUNCH OF THE SPIRIT NVIDIA IS NOT ALLOWED TO
SELL ITS MOST ADVANCED BLACKWELL CHIPS INTO CHINA
RIGHT NOW. IN THE PAST THEY WERE ABLE TO
SELL THE NUMBER OF THE HOPPER GENERATION OF CHIPS.
MORE RECENTLY THE U.S. SIGNED OFF ON NVIDIA SELLING
THOSE H200'S INTO CHINA THAT WOULD BE A PRETTY ADVANCED CHIP
FOR MANY OF THESE COMPANIES TO USE, INCLUDING MOONSHOT AND
DEEPSEEK. BUT BEIJING PUSHED BACK ON THAT
IDEA THAT DOMESTIC COMPANIES SHOULD USE THOSE CHIPS.
HE WOULD PREFER TO BUILD OUT ITS OWN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY,
PARTICULARLY SUPPORTING COMPANIES LIKE HUAWEI IN
PARTICULAR. IF YOU ARE USING H200 CHIPS, IT
IS POSSIBLE FROM THE U.S. STANDPOINT WITHIN CHINA, BUT
THERE WOULD BE PUSHBACK FROM BEIJING IF YOU ARE USING H200
CHIPS THAT THEY WOULD PREFER YOU NOT USE AT THIS POINT. IT IS ENTIRELY LEGAL FOR
THEY CAN GO TO SOUTHEAST ASIA AND GET THESE CHIPS INCLUDING
PAGE 200 -- H200'S. THIS IS A LOOP OF CHINA HAWKS
HAVE WANTED TO CLOSE, BUT AT THIS TIME, THIS IS STILL A
LOOPHOLE. ED: ALIBABA IS ONE OF MOONSHOT'S
BIGGEST INVESTORS. PETER ELSTROM, THANK YOU VERY
MUCH. ANTHROPIC SAYS ITS AI MODELS
BROKE OUT OF A CLOSED TESTING ENVIRONMENT AND BREACHED THREE
OUTSIDE ORGANIZATION. ANTHROPIC SAID IT MADE THE
DISCOVERY AFTER REVIEWING ITS OWN CYBERSECURITY ATTACKS
FOLLOWING OPEN AI'S SIMILAR ANNOUNCEMENTS. ONE OF THE MOST POPULAR
STORIES, UNSURPRISINGLY, ON BLOOMBERG. >> AS YOU MENTION, ANTHROPIC
MADE AN INTERNAL REVIEW AFTER THE HUGGING FACE INCIDENT WAS
DISCLOSED A LITTLE OVER A WEEK AGO, AND DISCOVERED THAT IN
THREE INSTANCES, THEIR MODELS, WHICH WERE CONDUCTING THEIR OWN
INTERNAL TESTS, HAD BROKEN OUT AND HAD HACKED THREE EXTERNAL
ORGANIZATIONS. I THINK IT RAISES A TON OF
INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT QUESTIONS ABOUT THESE AI
COMPANIES ABILITIES TO CONTROL, UNDERSTAND, AND MONITOR THESE
MODELS, AND ESPECIALLY THE FACT IT TOOK IN AT LEAST ONE CASE
THREE MONTHS FOR ANTHROPIC TO DISCOVER WHAT HAD HAPPENED,
WHICH RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE ABILITY TO SEE WHAT IS
GOING ON. ED: IN THE ANTHROPIC CASE, WE DO
NOT KNOW WHO THE THREE COMPANIES ARE.
WE KNOW THE ESCAPE FROM THE SANDBOX ENVIRONMENT.
GO INTO THAT QUICKLY. >> THERE IS AN IMPORTANT
DISTINCTION TO BE DRAWN. IN THE RECENT OPENAI CASE,
WHICH HAS DRAWN A LOT OF COMPARISONS, THE MODEL
DISCOVERED NOVEL VULNERABILITIES AND HACKED ITS
WAY OUT OF ITS ENVIRONMENT. IN THE ANTHROPIC CASE, THERE
WAS A HUMAN MISCONFIGURATION THAT ALLOWED INTERNET ACCESS
FOR THE MODEL. THEREFORE, THE MODEL THOUGHT
EVERYTHING IT HAD ACCESSED WAS PART OF THE TEST. THIS IS
SOMETHING ANTHROPIC IS REALLY INSISTENT ON, BECAUSE THEY ARE
PINK -- ARE POSITIONING THIS AS A HUMAN SERIES OF ERRORS AS
OPPOSED TO AI ERROR. ED: I INVITED ANTHROPIC ON THE SHOW.
THEY SAID NO. COMING UP, SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS AND INVESTMENT IN COMPANIES TIED TO THE AI BOOM.
WE HAVE THE DETAILS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG TECH. ED: TROUBLED HEDGE FUNDS.
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS. STAKES IN PRIVATE COMPANIES TO
RAISE CASH AS IT FACED A WAVE OF MARGIN CALLS.
ITS ASSETS PLUNGED TO ROUGHLY $10 BILLION. THAT IS WHEN CITADEL'S CAKE
GRIFFIN SWEPT IN TO BUY THE FUND'S PUBLIC PORTFOLIO. THE FOUNDER OF SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS PRESERVE THE WEBSITE FOR POSTERITY.
LET'S GET THE DETAILS. EXTRAORDINARY REPORTING.
TRYING TO UPLOAD -- OFFLOAD A PRIVATE STEAK TO TRY TO MANAGE
THE SITUATION? >> WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS AN
INCREDIBLY DRAMATIC UNFOLDING OF EVENTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE NEWS THAT WHILE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS WAS IN CONVERSATIONS
WITH CITADEL, MILLENNIUM, JANE STREET TO OFFLOAD THEIR PUBLIC
BOOK, THERE WERE ALSO HAVING CONVERSATIONS TO POTENTIALLY
OFFLOAD THEIR PRIVATE PORTFOLIO. THIS IS A SIZABLE PORTFOLIO
THAT INCLUDES A $5 BILLION POSITION IN ANTHROPIC.
THE FACT THAT THEY WERE IN TALKS WITH SEQUOIA AND GREEN
OAKS TO POTENTIALLY OFFER THOSE STAKES REALLY SHOWS HOW
DRAMATIC THE SITUATION WAS. ULTIMATELY, THEY DID NOT GO
AHEAD WITH THAT BECAUSE THEY GOT THE CITADEL DEAL.
BUT IT IS NOT A GREAT SIGN WHEN A FUND IS LOOKING AT TRYING TO
SELL THEIR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE BOOK TO MEET MARGIN CALLS. ED:
WHAT IS THE STATE OF PLAY? IT SOUNDS LIKE THE FIRM IS
STILL THERE. HAS ANYONE HEARD FROM ASH AND
BRUNNER IN THE LAST 24 HOURS? HEMA:
HE SENT A LETTER TO INVESTORS APOLOGIZING FOR THE DRAMATIC
UNFOLDING OF EVENTS, SAYING THAT HE IS RESPONSIBLE, SAYING
THAT THE FUND STILL HAS ITS YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE UP 80%.
BUT KEEP IN MIND THE MONTHLY PERFORMANCE IS DOWN NEARLY 70%.
ALSO REALLY IMPORTANT IS THINKING ABOUT WHEN INVESTORS
BOUGHT HIM. THOSE WHO GOT IN EARLY IN THE
FUND'S EXISTENCE ARE PROBABLY DOING OK.
BUT IF YOU ARE AN INVESTOR AND GOT IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS, THE
PAIN IS PRETTY BAD. ED: TESLA IS CONSIDERING SEPARATING
ITS CHINA BUSINESS TO PAVE THE WAY FOR A POTENTIAL SPACEX
MERGER, ACCORDING TO A REPORT IN "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL."
THE JOURNAL SAID SOME TESLA EXECUTIVES HAVE BEEN TOLD TO
PREPARE FOR THAT MOVE. ELON MUSK WROTE THAT THE REPORT
WAS FAKE NEWS. LET'S START WITH WHAT IS IN THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORT. THERE ARE MULTIPLE LINES OF
INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT IS BEING CONSIDERED.
SUMMARIZE AS BEST YOU CAN. >> I THINK IN THE BROAD SCHEME
OF THINGS, FOR MONTHS NOW, IT HAS BEEN SPACEX AND TESLA.
ARE THESE COMPANIES GOING TO COMBINE?
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW TO THESE COMPANIES COME TOGETHER,
CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT SPACEX IS THIS GREAT BIG U.S.
DEFENSE CONTRACTOR AND TESLA HAS THIS HUGE CHINA BUSINESS
THAT IS CRUCIAL TO THE COMPANY. AREN'T THOSE THINGS IN CONFLICT?
I THINK WHAT WAS VERY INTERESTING ABOUT THIS REPORT
LAST NIGHT WAS ELEMENTS OF THE FACT THAT THESE COMPANIES
ALREADY ARE KIND OF SEPARATE. I THINK THAT IS PRETTY WELL
KNOWN AND UNDERSTOOD. THE QUESTION IS WHAT EXACTLY
ARE ADVISORS THINKING, OR HOW IS THIS POSSIBLY GOING TO WORK
OUT, CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY
PROBABLY IS NOT PARTICULARLY PRIMED FOR THE SHANGHAI FACTORY
CRUCIAL TO TESLA CLOSING UP TO A SPACEX BUSINESS, AND SORT OF
OVERLAPPING WITH SPACEX, WHICH MUSK HAS BEEN QUITE OPEN ABOUT.
THEY HAVE NOT BEEN CRAZY ABOUT STARLINK. ED:
MUSK POSTED MORE THAN ONCE THIS HAS NEVER EVEN COME UP IN A
DISCUSSION EVER. OF FAKE NEWS. PEOPLE SHOULD ASSUME NEWS IS
FAKE UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE. I THINK OUR COLLEAGUES IN CHINA WHO DISPUTED THE REPORT -- >> I
THINK THE FACT THAT MUSK HAS BEEN VERY PUBLIC ABOUT THE FACT
THAT STARLINK IS A NO GO IN CHINA -- HAS ALSO TALKED OPENLY
ABOUT JUST HOW MUCH CHINA IS COMPETING WITH SPACEX.
THERE ARE A LOT OF ELEMENTS OF THE JOURNAL'S REPORTING THAT
RING TRUE. THE QUESTION IS OF COURSE WHAT
IS GOING ON BEHIND THE SCENES FOR THESE COMPANIES TO GAME OUT
WHAT COULD BE DONE. I THINK THE JOURNAL SORT OF
BROUGHT SOME NEW THINGS TO LIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OF COURSE, MUSK AND HIS CAMP IS PUSHING BACK ON WHAT WAS
REPORTED. >> A YEAR AFTER HIS BITTER
SPLIT WITH DONALD TRUMP HE PLANS TO SPEND TO BACK
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES FOR THE MIDTERMS, ACCORDING TO "THE NEW
YORK TIMES." HOWEVER LAST YEAR MUSK TOLD THE
ECONOMIST HE FELT TO INVOLVED IN POLITICS.
ACCORDING TO REPORTS, HIS SUPER PAC IS PLANNING TO SPEND $120
MILLION ON A NEW FIELD PROGRAM IN AT LEAST EIGHT STATES.
COMING UP, WE HAVE MORE ON APPLE AND AMAZON EARNINGS. THE REACTION TO THE PRINT FROM
AMAZON AND APPLE IS BIG. THESE ARE BIG MOVES INTO OF THE
WORLD'S BIGGEST TECHNOLOGY NAMES, AND THEY ARE IN
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. APPLE IS ON TRACK FOR ITS
BIGGEST DROP SINCE MARCH OF 2020. AMAZON IS ON TRACK FOR ITS
BIGGEST GAIN SINCE 2012. THAT IS HOW SEVERE THIS IS.
AT THE INDEX LEVEL, WE ARE KIND OF NETTING OUT PRETTY MUCH FLAT
ON THE NASDAQ 100. PRETTY MUCH FLAT ON THE
PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX AS WELL.
WE ARE HALFWAY THROUGH THE PROGRAM.
THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO LOOKING BEAUTIFUL THIS FRIDAY.
STAY WITH US. THIS IS BLOOMBERG TECH. ♪ >> WELCOME BACK.
EARNINGS ARE THE BIG STORY. I THOUGHT WE WOULD TAKE A BEACH
THIS FRIDAY AND LOOK AT THE NASDAQ 100.
ON THE WEEKS, MODERATELY LOWER. IN SEMICONDUCTORS, ON THE
STOCKS, WE'RE DOWN 4% ON THE WEEK AND THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH
NEWS. REMEMBER THAT THE WEEK STARTED
WITH CONCERNS ABOUT CIRCULAR FINANCING AND NVIDIA.
WE HAVE ENDED THE WEEK WITH A PRETTY UPBEAT PICTURE ON
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES IN THE WORLD OF AI, LARGELY THROUGH
THE AMAZON LENS BUT APPLE WAS A BIT OF A SURPRISE.
THE MANAGEMENT OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN. APPLE IS ON TRACK FOR ITS
BIGGEST DROP SINCE 2020. DISCLOSURE OF SOME
MISMANAGEMENT OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN.
WE WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SAY THAT ABOUT APPLE.
THEN THERE IS AMAZON, ON TRACK FOR ITS BIGGEST JUMP SINCE 2012.
INCREDIBLE CROWD GROWTH AND A LOT OF AI MOMENTUM.
LET'S TALK ABOUT EARNINGS AND HOW IT IS ALL GOING. LET ME TELL YOU, ON A FRIDAY,
WE HAVE TO GO THROUGH ALL OF IT. THERE IS NO ONE BETTER.
IT STARTED WITH AMAZON. YOU KNOW THESE COMPANIES WELL.
YOU HAVE A CLEAR STRATEGY. WAS THERE ONE SINGLE THING WITH
AMAZON THAT YOU JUMPED OUT -- JUMPED OUT AT YOU? >> WE STARTED ADDING IT TO OUR
VALUE PORTFOLIO ACTUALLY USED PROCEEDS FROM APPLE EARLIER
THIS WEEK TO CONTINUE THAT. IT HAS BEEN TRADING LIKE A
VALUE STOCK. WE KNEW THAT THE CEO
UNDERSTANDS HOW TO ROLL NEW TECHNOLOGIES.
HE WAS KIND OF THE FATHER OF AWS. OUR BET HAS BEEN ON HIM. IT DID NOT LOOK TOO GOOD UNTIL
YESTERDAY. WHAT WE BELIEVE IS THE COMPANY
IS IN A POSITION TO MONETIZE THE CAPEX. SPEND.
THEY PULLED ALL THE LEVERS. ED:
WHAT PEOPLE FOCUS ON BEYOND THE GROWTH AND CRAFT BUSINESS IS
THE REVENUE RUN RATE FOR THE CHIP BUSINESS, RENTING CLOUD
CAPACITY, AND AWS AI WHICH IS BEDROCK MODELS.
DO YOU LOOK AT THOSE OR IS IT STILL JUST AWS OVERALL? >> WE LOOK AT ALL OF THE
SEGMENTS. THE ONE THAT ALWAYS GETS
OVERLOOKED IS THE RETAIL SIDE. MAYBE EVEN ADVERTISING.
WE CERTAINLY LOOK AT ALL OF THEM.
WE ARE CONCERNED AS INVESTORS WITH IS THE MANAGEMENT PIVOTING?
YOU HAD A CEO WHO MISSED. WE ARE LOOKING FOR MANAGEMENT
TEAMS THAT ARE REALLY DRIVING INTO THE FUTURE.
THAT IS THE CASE AT AMAZON. JASSY HAS CUT COSTS AND ALL THE
RIGHT PLACES. INVESTED IN ALL THE RIGHT
PLACES. AND HE KEEPS A LOW PROFILE
WHICH I THINK IS VERY IMPORTANT AS AN INVESTOR.
WE PAY ATTENTION TO THAT. WHAT IS THE CATALYST FOR
OUTPERFORMANCE? WE THINK IT IS BEING IN THE
SWEET SPOT OF INVESTING AND MONETIZING. ED: WOULD IT BE FAIR TO SAY THAT IN
FINANCIAL MARKETS PEOPLE HAVE DIFFERENT OPINIONS ON THE SAME
METRIC? THE CASE STUDY I PUT TO YOU IS
FREE CASH FLOW. META SHOWED ITS LOWEST LEVEL
SINCE 2022. AMAZON HAS BEEN IN THE NEGATIVE
FOR A 12 MONTH BASIS AND OF SEEMS TO MIND.
I AM NOT AN INVESTOR, I'M A JOURNALIST, BUT PEOPLE ALWAYS
SAY THAT FREE CASH FLOW IS A BETTER MEASURE THAN MARGIN OR
ANY KIND OF PROFIT. EVERYBODY SEEMS TO BE ON THE
SAME PAGE ABOUT THAT? >> YOU ARE 100% RIGHT.
WE ARE IN AN ECONOMY OF A SECTOR THAT IS IN A MAJOR
TRANSFORMATION. DURING THESE TIMES
HISTORICALLY, I HAVE BEEN DOING THIS FOR OVER 40 YEARS, IT YOU
MUST INVEST. IT IS AN ARMS RACE. WE CAN TOLERATE TIMES OF
NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE
QUALITY OF HYPERSCALERS HAVE. THAT IS SUPER IMPORTANT.
IF YOU ARE INVESTING FOR THE FUTURE, YOU HAVE TO BE WILLING
TO SACRIFICE FREE CASH FLOW. TO INVEST FOR THE NEXT ROUND. THE INVESTMENT IS PLAYING --
PAYING OFF. FREE CASH FLOW WILL RETURN AND
HE TALKED A BIT ABOUT THAT. ED: LET'S TALK ABOUT APPLE. IT WAS TIM COOK'S FINAL
EARNINGS CALL. THE SEPTEMBER QUARTER, THE
WORLD IS GETTING MORE DIFFICULT FOR THEM BUT THERE WAS THIS
ADMISSION THAT THEY DID IT WRONG.
ON HANDLING THE SUPPLY CHAIN. >> THAT IS SOMETHING I'VE LOVES
ABOUT TIM COOK OVER THE 13 YEARS THAT WE HAVE OWNED THIS
STOCK. WE GOT IN AFTER THE GOOGLE MAP
DEBACLE. HE WROTE AN APOLOGY ACKNOWLEDGING THE MISTAKE.
IN JANUARY OF 2019 WITH A MISSED EARNINGS HE WROTE A
LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS. I DON'T KNOW OTHER CEOS THAT DO
THAT. HE IS A COMPETENT MANAGER OF
THE SUPPLY CHAIN IN THE BUSINESS BUT HE MADE MISTAKES
AS WE ALL DO. I MAKE THEM EVERYDAY.
WHAT WE LEARNED IS THE NEXT QUARTER WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE A REALLY STRONG MOMENTUM QUARTER IS NOT GOING
TO BE. IN THAT DISCUSSION WHAT I THOUGHT WAS INTERESTING WAS HE
SAID EVEN THOUGH THE SUPPLY OF A MEMORY CHIPS MAY IMPROVE, WE
DO NOT EXPECT PRICES TO GO DOWN. HE ALSO DID NOT SAY THAT HE
WOULD BE IN CHINA BUYING THOSE PARTS.
I THINK THE MARKET IS STILL TRYING TO DIGEST ALL OF THAT.
WE HAVE SOLD A CHUNK OF OUR HOLDINGS GOING INTO EARNINGS
BECAUSE IT HAD BEEN SUCH A STRONG PERFORMER RELATIVE TO
EVERYTHING ELSE. WE THOUGHT SOME OF THE GOOD
NEWS WAS PRICED AGAIN AND WE WANTED TO FUND NAMES LIKE
AMAZON THAT HAD NOT PARTICIPATED IN THE RALLY.
IT IS A NAME THAT YOU HOLD ONTO. WE CALL IT OUR TREASURY BILL OF
TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS. I DON'T THINK YOU CHASE IT.
YOU LET IT SETTLE. HE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY.
THEY WILL HAVE AN AI ANNOUNCEMENT.
THEY WILL ALWAYS GET A NEW CEO. I THINK YOU HAVE SOME TIME TO
ACCUMULATE THE HOLDINGS. BUT CERTAINLY NOT TODAY. ED: HAPPY FRIDAY.
IT HAS BEEN A LONG WEEK. THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
RIVIAN'S QUARTERLY ESTIMATES BEAT.
BUT THEY PAGAN DELIVERIES OF THE NEW SUV. SHARES OPEN HIGHER.
I CAUGHT UP WITH THE CFO WHO SAYS THAT THE NEW MODEL WILL BE
A KEY CATALYST FOR RIVIAN. >> WE ARE REALLY EXCITED ABOUT
THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTRODUCE THIS TO THE WORLD.
IT IS THE START OF OUR FIRST EXTERNAL CUSTOMER DELIVERIES.
ALSO THE FIRST OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONSUMERS TO TEST DRIVE THE
VEHICLE. WE WERE ABLE TO COMPLETE 50,000
DEMO DRIVES OVER THE SECOND QUARTER.
THAT WAS A KEY DRIVER IN THE INCREASE THAT WE SAW.
ACROSS EACH OF OUR RETAIL SPACES. THE REACTION FROM THE MEDIA HAS
BEEN FANTASTIC. THE SAME IS TRUE AS WE LOOKED
AT THE FEEDBACK WE ARE SEEING FROM CONSUMERS WHO ARE GETTING
BEHIND THE WHEEL EXPERIENCING IT FOR THEMSELVES.
FOR SOMEONE LIKE MYSELF WHO HAS BEEN HERE FOR 5.5 YEARS THAT,
JUST A VERY GREAT MOMENT TO SEE R2 OUT IN THE WILD.
RIVIAN IS A POSITION TO SCALE UP OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
YEAR. ED: DO YOU TRACK THE CONVERSION
RATE OF THOSE 57,000 DEMO'S, HOW MUCH AND OF BEING ACTUAL
SALES? >> RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF TAKING EXISTING RESERVATION HOLDERS WHO ARE
INTERESTED IN R2 AND GIVING THEM THE FIRST LOOK TO
EXPERIENCE THE PRODUCT. ALSO INTRODUCING MORE AND MORE
CUSTOMERS AND TO THE BROADER RIVIAN ECOSYSTEM.
THIS IS A BIG MOMENT FOR THE BUSINESSES WE ARE TRYING TO
DRIVE AND EXPAND OUR BRAND AWARENESS AND INTRODUCE MORE
HOUSEHOLDS INTO THE RIVIAN COMMUNITY. ED:
CAN YOU TRY TO QUANTIFY WITH THE SALES CONTRIBUTION FROM R2
WAS IN THAT QUARTER AND WHERE YOUR TRACKING?
YOU HAVE SAID THAT IN THE BACK HALF OF THIS YEAR IS WHEN WE
WILL START TO SEE R2 IN A MEANINGFUL WAY BUT WHAT IS THE
TRAJECTORY? >> IN THE SECOND QUARTER IT IS
LIMITED IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF DELIVERIES THAT IT
CONTRIBUTED TO OUR OVERALL DELIVERY.
WE ENDED UP SHIPPING OF A 12,000 UNITS.
EMBEDDED IN OUR 70,000 UNITS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE YEAR, WE WILL
SEE A SIGNIFICANT STEP UP IN THE SECOND HALF FOR DELIVERIES.
R2 WILL BE A KEY CATALYST FOR THE GROWTH WE ANTICIPATE SEEING.
ED: THAT WAS THE CFO OF RIVIAN. PRESIDENT TRUMP NOW HOLDING A
CABINET MEETING AT CAMP DAVID. LET'S LISTEN IN. PRES. T RUMP:
WHAT THAT DOES FOR YOUR HEALTH CARE, YOU WILL SEE THESE POLLS
FOR THE DEMOCRATS HAVE WONDERFUL NUMBERS ON THIS STUFF
AND THEY ARE HORRIBLE WHAT THEY HAVE DONE.
OBAMACARE IS A TOTAL DISASTER. IT IS A COSTLY WRECK.
IT IS UNAFFORDABLE. IT IS A DISGRACE.
THEY NEVER EVEN THOUGHT OF BEING ABLE TO DO SOMETHING LIKE
THIS. THEY DID NOT EVEN TRY. I GOT THE CHART COMPANIES AND
THEN I GOT THE COUNTRIES. THE DRUG COMPANIES AGREED
BECAUSE THEY KNEW THE COUNTRIES WITH TWO.
WHEN I CALLED GERMANY AND FRANCE AND THE UNITED KINGDOM
AND ALL OF THESE COUNTRIES I SAID YOU HAVE TO DO IT.
IT IS UNFAIR. WE ARE PAYING 10 TIMES MORE
THAN YOU'RE PAYING FOR THE SAME DRUGS.
THEY SAID WE ARE NOT GOING TO DO THAT BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE TO
DOUBLE OUR PRICES TO MAKE IT HAPPY.
I SAID MAYBE YOU WILL HAVE TO TRIPLE YOUR PRICE.
THEY SAID WE CANNOT DO IT. I SAID THAT'S ALL RIGHT.
I WILL CHARGE YOU VERY SUBSTANTIAL TARIFFS WHICH ARE
FAR MORE THAN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THEY ALL SAID THERE WOULD BE A GREAT HONOR TO DO IT. YOUR DRUG PRICES HAVE GONE DOWN
BY NUMBERS YOU CANNOT EVEN IMAGINE.
MY FIRST TERM I HAVE THE PRIVILEGE OF HAVING LOWER DRUG
PRICES FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR TO THE END FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 28 YEARS. I CALLED A NEWS CONFERENCE TO
ANNOUNCE IT. THE YEAR HAD ENDED AND IT TURNED OUT THAT 1/8 OF A
PERCENT IT WENT DOWN DURING ONE YEAR.
THE FIRST TIME IN 28 YEARS. IT WAS ALWAYS UP.
MORE EXPENSIVE. I CALLED A NEWS CONFERENCE I
WAS SO PROUD OF MYSELF. I SAID LADIES AND GENTLEMEN,
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 28 YEARS DRUG PRICES HAVE GONE DOWN FROM
JANUARY TO THE END OF DECEMBER. AND I WANT TO CONGRATULATE
EVERYBODY FOR BEING A PART OF THIS WONDERFUL EXPERIMENT.
NOW WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 600%. WE PAY THE LOWEST DRUG PRICES
ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. I WILL SAY IT AGAIN AND AGAIN
BECAUSE THE PRESS DOES NOT WANT TO REPORT IT.
THEY DON'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT IT.
WHAT THAT DOES FOR HEALTH CARE IS UNBELIEVABLE BECAUSE
MEDICINE IS A BIG PART OF HEALTH CARE.
I WISH PEOPLE WOULD UNDERSTAND THAT.
I HOPE THEY WILL VOTE FOR US IN THE MIDTERMS BECAUSE YOU WILL
SEE SOME STUFF THAT WILL BE HORRIBLE BECAUSE THEY CAN BLOW
IT VERY FAST. YOUR DRUG PRICES ARE GREAT.
I SAW SPAIN YESTERDAY AND WATCHED THE CATASTROPHE THAT
TOOK PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE AN INVASION OF A
COUNTRY BY HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE.
THE SAME THING WILL HAPPEN TO US OF THE REPUBLICANS DO NOT
GET ELECTED. EXCEPT WORSE. MUCH BIGGER.
MUCH EASIER TO GET INTO DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE HAVE BUILT
THOUSANDS OF MILES OF WALL THAT I SAID WE WOULD DO.
IF WE DID NOT HAVE THAT, FORGET IT. WE HAVE THE SAFEST BORDER IN
THE WORLD. ED: THAT WAS PRESIDENT FROM
SPEAKING AT A CABINET MEETING. NO HEADLINES OTHER THAN THE
PRESIDENT TOUTING THE STOCK MARKET.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRING YOU HEADLINES IF AND WHEN
THEY COME. WITH ANTHROPIC JOINING OPENAI
IN REVEALING THAT SOME OF ITS MODELS BROKE OUT OF SEALS
TESTING AND HACKED OUTSIDE ORGANIZATIONS, FEARS ABOUT THE
REAL-WORLD RISKS AND CALLS FOR SAFEGUARDS ARE RISING.
THE CONCERN IS NOT JUST WHAT AI KNOWS ANYMORE BUT WHAT IT CAN
DO AS THE SYSTEMS BECOME MORE AGENTIC AND BEGIN TAKING
ACTIONS IN THE REAL WORLD. TRUST AND SECURITY BECOME MORE
IMPORTANT. SHE HAS A FOCUS ON HEALTH.
SOMETHING THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN SPEAKING ABOUT IN THE LAST
FEW MINUTES. SHE JOINS US NOW. YOU KNOW SO MANY FOUNDERS WHO
HAVE A STRONG VIEW ON THIS. YOU ARE INVESTING IN THIS SPACE.
JUST TO START YOUR REACTION TO ANTHROPIC'S EXPOSURE LAST NIGHT.
>> GREAT TO SEE YOU. THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
A COUPLE OF WEEKS IN A ROW OF DISCLOSURES THAT ARE RINGING
ALARM BELLS FOR QUITE A FEW PEOPLE BUT I THINK IT IS REALLY
ILLUSTRATING A BROADER POINT WHICH IS WE ARE MOVING BEYOND
THE COMMODITIZATION OF INTELLIGENCE MODELS INTO WHAT
HAPPENS WHEN MODELS INTERACT WITH THE REAL WORLD.
THESE DISCLOSURES SHOW BOTH WHAT CAN HAPPEN WHEN THERE IS A
MISCONFIGURATION IN THE ANTHROPIC CASE AROUND A SANDBOX
AND ALSO NEW STRESS TESTS THE SUPER HYPER INTELLIGENT MODELS,
THE POTENTIAL RISKS. AT THE SAME TIME I THINK IT IS
INCREDIBLY EXCITING HOW ADVANCED OF THESE MODELS ARE
GETTING. THE FUTURE MIGHT BE MOVING INTO
THE OPERATING SYSTEM AND THE TRUST INFRASTRUCTURE AROUND IT.
ED: THE PRESIDENT WAS SPEAKING
ABOUT DRUG PRICES, ABOUT THE ROLE AND POSITIONING OF DRUG
PRICES IN HEALTH CARE. MY HOPE WAS THAT YOU WOULD COME
ON THE SHOW AND YOU ARE VERY FOCUSED ON THAT VERTICAL,
LITERAL VERTICAL AI APPLICATION OF HEALTH CARE.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY THERE, IT SEEMS, TO REALLY CHANGE THE
INDUSTRY. DEENA: THERE IS, AND YOU WERE WITH US
IN MARCH WHEN WE HOSTED A WHOLE CONFERENCE AROUND THE
OPPORTUNITY OF THE INTERSECTION OF HEALTH CARE AND AI.
THERE HAVE BEEN EXCITING DEVELOPMENTS FROM ALL OF THE
LABS, WHETHER IT IS ANTHROPIC GOING ON THE RECORD SAYING
HEALTH CARE IS ONE OF THEIR BIGGEST PRIORITIES, GOING DEEP
INTO LIFE SCIENCES, TALKING ABOUT DRUG DEVELOPMENT AS A
POTENTIAL PRIORITY FOR THEM, OR OPENAI'S LAUNCH JUST LAST WEEK
AROUND HEALTH CARE. I DON’'T KNOW IF YOU HAVE
PLAYED AROUND WITH IT AT ALL. IT HAS BEEN FUN.
I HAVE ENJOYED USING IT. AS SOMEONE WHO HELPED LAUNCH
GOOGLE HEALTH OVER A DECADE AGO, IT IS FUN TO SEE HOW FAR
THESE MODELS HAVE TAKEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO REALLY TAKE
HEALTH CARE INFORMATION INTO YOUR OWN HANDS.
BUT I THINK MORE IMPORTANTLY, MOVING BEYOND INFORMATION
GATHERING INTO ACTUAL ACTION. I THINK THAT IS WHERE THE NEXT
GENERATION OF INNOVATION IN AND AROUND HEALTH CARE AND ACROSS
REGULATED INDUSTRIES WILL BE. ED:
IN MARCH, A CONFERENCE, IN THE ROOM, THERE WERE THE FOUNDERS
OF SPECIALIZED STARTUPS. THERE WERE REPRESENTATIVES FROM
ALL KINDS OF TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES. FORMER CLINICIANS.
AND SOME REGULATORS. I THINK THE QUESTION POSED WAS,
IF OPENAI AND ANTHROPIC ARE SO BIG AND THEIR CAPABILITY IS SO
WIDE, WHY DO THEY NOT GO AFTER THIS FIELD MORE INTENSELY?
DEENA: I THINK THIS IS AN EXISTENTIAL
QUESTION FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERY APPLIED AI COMPANY.
WITH REGARD TO HEALTH CARE, BOTH OF THOSE LABS HAVE GONE ON
THE RECORD NOT ONLY LAUNCHING AROUND HEALTH CARE AND LIFE
SCIENCES, BUT TALKING ABOUT HOW IMPORTANT THESE PRIORITIES ARE.
I THINK WHAT HAS BECOME CLEAR IS IT WILL NOT HAPPEN IN
ISOLATION. IF YOU SAW THE LAUNCH COMING
OUT OF CHATGPT ON THE HEALTH CARE SIDE, THE PRODUCT ITSELF
IS GROUNDED IN PARTNERSHIP. IT IS ABOUT LITERALLY
CONNECTING YOUR HEALTH INFORMATION, WHETHER YOUR
FUNCTION HEALTH LABS OR APPLE HEALTH, TO THE SLABS.
SO AT THE END OF THE, IT IS INCREDIBLY EXCITING HOW GOOD
THESE MODELS ARE GETTING. BUT IT IS LESS ABOUT EXTRACTING
INFORMATION AND MORE ABOUT TAKING THAT INFORMATION AND
APPLYING IT TO THE REAL WORLD CONTEXT.
HEALTH CARE MAY BE THE BEST EXAMPLE OF THE REAL PHYSICAL
WORLD INTERACTING WITH MODELS. WITHOUT THOSE PARTNERSHIPS, THE
HEALTH CARE INFORMATION IS JUST LIVING IN ISOLATION.
IT IS GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON DEPLOYMENT AND ON PARTNERSHIP.
THAT IS WHERE I THINK IT HAS NEVER BEEN MORE EXCITING FOR
STARTUPS AND FOR THIRD-PARTY COMPANIES, RIGHT?
RATHER THAN TRYING TO REPLICATE A MODEL AND BUILD A NEW
FOUNDATIONAL LAYER, THEY ARE THE ONES WHO CAN TAKE
DEPLOYMENT TO THE NEXT LEVEL. ED:
CAN WE TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT SOME OF YOUR RECENT INVESTMENTS
THROUGH BUSY PERSON? I MEAN THAT IN THE KINDEST WAY.
YOU HAVE BEEN DOING SOME INTERESTING ROUNDS OF LATE.
LUX CAPITAL HAS SCALE, WHICH I FIND INTERESTING.
BUT INCREASINGLY, SOME OF THE MORE LEGACY WALL STREET
INSTITUTIONS ARE GETTING EARLIER INTO THE GAME AND SOME
OF THESE VERTICALS. DEENA: YEAH. THERE IS SO MUCH OPPORTUNITY, I
THINK EVERYBODY WANTS TO HAVE A HAND IN IT, FOR SURE.
AT LUX, WE ARE EXCITED ABOUT THE OPPORTUNITY ACROSS A NUMBER
OF VERTICALS, HEALTH CARE BEING ONE OF THEM.
BUT ACROSS QUITE A FEW OTHERS AS WELL. I THINK PHYSICAL AI AND
ROBOTICS IS A MASSIVE OPPORTUNITY AND WE ARE STILL
EARLY DAYS THERE. IT IS CLEAR THAT AI IS NO
LONGER -- IT IS HOW WE USED TO TALK ABOUT TEC AND TECH
EVENTUALLY BECAME EVERYTHING. AI IS AN OPERATING SYSTEM.
THE OPPORTUNITY ACROSS THESE LEGACY INSTITUTIONS IS
ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE AND WE ARE JUST GETTING STARTED. ED:
I MOVED TO SAN FRANCISCO IN 2018 AND FEEL LIKE I MISSED THE
BOAT A LITTLE BIT ON THE SOCIAL MEDIA WAVE AND ON HARDWARE, AND
NOW AI TECHNOLOGY. WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS IN
THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR IN PRIVATE MARKETS?
THERE ARE CERTAIN SPACES. DEFENSE TECH IS SUPER FOCUSED
ON. THERE IS SUCH MOMENTUM. THE NUMBERS THIS YEAR ARE
BIGGER THAN LAST YEAR. DOES THAT APPLY TO HEALTH?
WHAT IS THE ZOOMED OUT VIEW OF THE INDUSTRIES YOU ARE
INVESTING IN? DEENA: I THINK THERE IS A LESSON THAT
EVERY TIME YOU THINK YOU KNOW, SOMETHING POPS UP AND PROVES
YOU WRONG. WITH REGARD TO PRIVATE MARKETS,
THE OPPORTUNITY HAS NEVER BEEN BETTER IN THE APPLICATION LAYER.
THAT WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN THE CASE IF I HAD COME ON THE SHOW
A COUPLE YEARS AGO. THE FOCUS AT THAT TIME WAS MORE
AROUND INFRASTRUCTURE AND AROUND THE MODELS.
BUT IT HAS BECOME CLEAR JUST HOW QUICKLY THESE MODELS CAN
ADVANCE AND IT HAS BECOME CLEAR THEY CANNOT DO IT IN ISOLATION.
SO WE ARE EXCITED ABOUT EVERYTHING FROM REAL WORLD
HEALTH COMPANIES LIKE SINE AND HEALTH, -- SYNON HEALTH, TO
COMPANIES LIKE SOVEREIGN AI, WHO ARE TAKING THE NEXT LAYER
OF DEPLOYMENT GEOGRAPHICALLY. WE ANNOUNCED AN INVESTMENT IN
1001 AI IN THE GCC, AND THOSE ARE GREAT EXAMPLES WITH THAT
TRUST LAYER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEWS IN RECENT WEEKS, IN
THESE INCIDENTS. IT IS GOING TO BE MORE
IMPORTANT THAN EVER. THERE ARE MORE INTERESTING
COMPANIES IN THE WORKS RIGHT NOW THAT WE WILL BE EXCITED TO
UNVEIL IN WEEKS TO COME. ED: THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED. COMING UP, INVESTOR CONCERNS OF
HEAVY SPENDING FROM THE HYPERSCALERS.
MICROSOFT IS EASING FEARS BY PROMISING TO STAY CASH FLOW
POSITIVE. DETAILS NEXT. ED: TODAY'S BIG NUMBER -- $450
BILLION. THAT IS HOW MUCH MICROSOFT
ADDED TO ITS VALUE YESTERDAY AFTER ITS MARKET CAP JUMPED
16%, INCREASING MORE THAN ANY COMPANY EVER IN A SINGLE DAY.
THE STOCK IS UP 2.3%. WHY ARE INVESTORS SO HAPPY?
BECAUSE MICROSOFT STRUCK A CAUTIOUS TONE ON SPENDING.
UNLIKE MANY OF ITS MAG SEVEN PEERS, IT EASED FEARS BY
REMAINING CASH FLOW POSITIVE. TECH IN-DEPTH -- THIS IS
IMPORTANT. FREE CASH FLOW IS THE METRIC
PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT. AND THEY ARE MAKING A
COMMITMENT. THEY HAVE STATED IT. >> ALL THE MONEY BEING SPENT ON
DATA CENTERS IS A BET. WE SEE SOME OF THE GREAT CASH
FLOW BUSINESSES, AMAZON, META, AND GOOGLE, HEADING TOWARD
NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW. MICROSOFT HAS SAID WE ARE GOING
TO PRIORITIZE STAYING CASH FLOW POSITIVE.
WE WILL BE MODERATE WITH OUR SPENDING.
AT LEAST FOR NOW, THE MARKET IS SUPER HAPPY. ED:
I REMEMBER THE BIG MOMENT WAS ORACLE'S NEGATIVE FREE CASH
FLOW. MARKETS FREAKED OUT. AMAZON HAS BEEN NEGATIVE CASH
FLOW FOR A WHILE. >> YOU MAKE A GOOD POINT.
WHEN ORACLE WENT FREE CASH FLOW NEGATIVE, THEY WERE THE FIRST
BIG COMPANY TO DO SO, AND EVERYONE THOUGHT LARRY WAS
CRAZY. EVERYONE DIGESTED. MICROSOFT IS STILL SPENDING 170
$5 BILLION. THAT IS A LOT OF MONEY.
BUT THEY ARE SIGNALING THAT THERE IS AN END IN SIGHT.
IT IS NOT GOING TO BE THIS CONSTANT RATCHETING UP OF
SPENDING, WHICH IS WHAT MAKES THE MARKETS SUPER NERVOUS. ED:
LAST YEAR, AMAZON RAGED CAPEX VERY QUICKLY.
HAS MICROSOFT EXPLAIN HOW THEY CAN PULL OFF THEIR GOAL? BRODY:
THEY HAVEN'T. THE FACT THAT COSTS ARE GOING
UP WITH MEMORY AND THEY ARE STILL HOLDING STEADY, IT MEANS
THEY ARE FINDING COST EFFICIENCY.
IF THAT IS TRUE, FOLKS WILL BE HAPPY TO SEE IT. ED:
BRODIE FORD, THANK YOU. THAT DOES IT FOR THIS EDITION
OF BLOOMBERG TECH. YOU CAN FIND THE RECAP ON THE
BLOOMBERG TERMINAL, ONLINE, ON SPOTIFY, AND ON I HEART.
GOODNESS. WHAT A WEEK. A BIG EARNINGS WEEK.
WE HAVE HAD A I MODELS BREAK FREE OF SANDBOXES.
AND STILL THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO LOOKS BEAUTIFUL THIS
FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. THIS IS BLOOMBERG TECH.
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