Microsoft, Amazon, Google - There Are INSANELY Rare Signals Flashing Right Now!

All right, what's up everybody and welcome back to another Monday here in the stock market. Well, it has been an absolute insane morning for hyperscalers as we have Google up 3.6%, Meta up 6%, Amazon up 4.7% and Microsoft up 4.9% all within the span of just the last couple hours. Matter of fact, if we go out to their oneweek performance now, that now puts Microsoft as a 25% gain in the last week. Google at 13%, Amazon at 22%. This is absolute insane price action from some of the biggest companies in the world. These things are moving like meme stocks over the last few days. It's honestly pretty nuts. And if we do head over to my own portfolio and we look at that new hyperscalers trade that we opened, which is about $4,500 deployed, that $4,500 that we've deployed is currently up about $900 bucks, meaning that our portfolio, the 4500 that is out there, is up around 20%. The new Google position is up about 12.8%. The Amazon position is sitting up about 22% and the Microsoft position is leading the charge, currently up 25%, up over $470. And remember, we started this Microsoft position, for example, on was it the 24th? July 24th, I believe. Yeah, July 24th when Microsoft was at $384. So, this AI trade, this hyperscalers trade that we've taken on with about $4,500 so far, is up over 20% just in the span of 10 days. Absolute insanity. This is wild, wild price action. Okay, I know I use the word wild a, but man, this is wild to say the least. Now, because of course this has been a very crazy morning and we are seeing hyperscalers climbing like they are, I wanted to make a video for you all updating you first and foremost on why this is happening, why we're continuing to see it throughout the month because there are mult or in the beginning of this week because there are multiple reasons and then I'm actually going to jump into the charts of these hyperscalers Amazon Microsoft and Google specifically and talk to you all about what the charts are telling me and what I'm doing as a result of these charts because they're telling me something very clear. There are clear signals flashing right now that I am not in any way ignoring that are impacting the way that I'm making moves in my own portfolio. Okay, so we have a decent amount to get into today. I don't think today's video will be too long. So, if you do enjoy it, feel free to smash that like button. But with that in mind, let's first and foremost talk about why these hyperscalers are absolutely flying. And it's very simple. People believe that the hyperscaler narrative is back. It's it's just that simple. Last week, we saw, of course, and I talked about this a lot last week, so I'm not going to go too deep into it, but super long story short, TLDDR, we saw both Amazon and Microsoft released their Q2 earnings reports, and they were absolutely fantastic. They killed it on revenue. They crushed it on net income and EPS. And what's most important is they crushed it on their cloud revenue. Their cloud revenue, which is the revenue that they actually generate from all of these data centers that they're spending all of this money on, was flying. Both Azure and AWS beat by a mile. wasn't even close. It was absolutely fantastic news. And furthermore, in their actual earnings calls, they just did a great job at talking to investors and talking to the market about why all of this spending makes sense. And they use that data that had just released as an example. They said, "Look, I know we're spending a lot of money right now, but these are all of the ways in which this money is going to return us much more than we're putting in. And just look at the data that we just released as proof. This isn't slowing down. We're only ramping up." And Amazon, they chose to raise their capex guidance a bit. Microsoft chose to keep it the same. But one way or another on both sides of that spectrum, the market loved it and it said, you know what, maybe we're wrong about these guys. Maybe we're wrong about the hyperscalers and they started buying like crazy. Microsoft went vertical, Amazon went vertical, and even Google started to recover. So that's what sparked it off. That's what kind of got them going. What's kept it going at this given point? what's kind of started to catapult it to where you know you see a Microsoft for example pushing up to 486 bucks and an Amazon breaking a new all-time high is the fact that people are now also starting to rotate out of semis. So if you look at the last week at the same exact time that we see something like a Microsoft, Google and Amazon um pumping, you're also seeing things like AMD down and you're seeing something like Micron down. We have SKH Heinix down a decent amount. You know, people are going to the other side of the AI trade and you see it all the time, right? When everyone's excited about hardware, you'll see maybe the hyperscalers or software pulling back. When people are excited about hyperscalers, you'll end up seeing usually hardware pull back a little bit because there are people who don't care. They're not investing into Google because they like Google. They're not investing in Nvidia or AMD because they like Nvidia or AMD. No, they're investing into them because they're trying to make money off the AI trade. That's what like a lot a lot of this this whole thing is about, right? And so in a moment right now where the narrative starts to shift back in the direction of hyperscalers, people are going to jump ship out of a Micron and go straight into an Amazon. If you don't believe me, just look at the price action today. Look at what happened with Micron's price as it started to pull back and look at how that exactly timed up with something like Microsoft continuing upwards. people are rotating and they're also rotating out of Apple because people are looking at Apple and going you're boring that yeah you're growing your revenue but you don't have exposure to the hyperscaler narrative and so the very thing that caused Apple's price to fly which was that they weren't risky because they weren't spending a bunch of money on capex is the exact reason as to why people are selling Apple and putting it into other things so people are rotating into hyperscalers out of Apple out of semis and it's causing their prices to catapult just like they are and so it's a mixture of fundamentally yes If Google, Amazon, Microsoft, if they're right with the things that they said in those earnings calls last week that we covered and this is going to create a ton a ton of income and revenue for them over the next four or five years, especially as they max out their capacity or continue to expand their capacity. Yeah, fundamentally this is going to make them much more valuable. Some of these could end up because of that pushing into being 10 trillion companies. I genuinely do believe that. So, it makes perfect sense as to why they're starting to rally. But the reason why they're rallying so parabolically is because people are rotating out of other places to buy them. And there's euphoria in the market. This is euphoria. Now, what Microsoft is doing, that's euphoria. What Amazon is doing, that's euphoria. And I want to warn you, I want you to be very careful about euphoria because although it does feel great, and I love seeing my positions up. I love seeing my hyperscalers running. I love seeing the fact that we're up 25% on this, 20 25% on this in the last 10 days. We made over, you know, nearly $1,000 in gains in 10 days on a $5,000 cash deployment. No, $4,500 cash deployment. Feels great. I'm not blinded to the fact that this is starting to get a little bit hot. This run that we're seeing right now is getting a little bit hot. And it doesn't mean that Amazon, for example, can't continue upwards. And listen, this market can stay much more irrational longer than you can stay solvent. And so, at the end of the day, this thing can just continue straight up. But every step that Amazon takes upwards at this point puts it at a further and further risk of some sort of pullback or capitulation. I mean, just look at what's happening. Just look what's happening. Let me get rid of my drawings. Let's just go over to the 4hour chart and let's look at the HCI, the Hill Conviction Index. And if you watch my channel, you know that this is a tool that I personally developed which tells me if a stock is getting too high or not. Anytime that this meter goes up into the bright red zone, it means a stock is getting too high. Anytime this meter goes into the bright green zone, it means that the stock is getting too low. So, just like it was getting too low back here before I saw a pump. Whenever it's getting too high into the red, it means that a pullback could be coming. Look at where we are. Look at where we are on the 4 hour. Amazon is at 4.98. The highest reading on the meter is at five, meaning that it's basically maxed out. And it's not just Amazon. Look at Microsoft. Microsoft is at a 4.99. And again, it can just continue higher. It's very possible. It's happened before. And we were at a 4.98 right here before it continued upwards. So yes, you can see it going higher, but I would be lying to all of you if I didn't say that buying now is a risk. And that's just based on the HCI. Google, little bit of a different story, right? Google on the 4 hour is at the 4.91, but it hasn't really rallied as hard as the other two. But whenever it comes to Amazon and Microsoft, yeah, folks, this thing is running hot. It's real hot and we're seeing real euphoria to the point in which people are selling other things to start buying it. In those sorts of moments, you got to be careful. And that's just based off the HCI. Let's take the HCI off for a second and just look at structurally what's going on. Microsoft is now in the golden zone. This is the strongest level of resistance that there has ever been before on Microsoft's chart because it's from his previous all-time high to his regional low. This is the strongest I'm going to say this again. The strongest level of resistance that Microsoft has ever faced before. There's never been a stronger one. There's never been a stronger one than your present day macro golden zone. And it ranges between 503 and $465. While Microsoft is in this massive resistance zone, at any given point it can fall. At any given second, it can fall. And so, considering the fact that your indicators are getting so hot as it's running into a major structural resistance zone, that's dangerous, guys. It doesn't mean it can't continue upwards. And we've seen times before where it has just trended upwards. It can, but every step of the way now is dangerous in the short term and the midterm. Long-term is a different story. I'll talk about that in a second. But in the short term and in the midterm, when it comes to a Microsoft, it's dangerous to buy right now. Amazon, it's dangerous to buy right now, folks. I mean, we're seeing Amazon currently approaching its macro Fibonacci extension zone, which is at 295 bucks. We're only $10 away from the area in which Amazon will usually pull back at. For example, look at what happened back here. Let me just show you this for a reference. Look at this. Amazon came up, broke the golden zone, broke the all-time high, then did what? It went straight up to this green line to blue line. This little threshold right here before crashing. Take that to the modern day. Amazon's come up. It's break the golden line. It broke the all-time high. This is that blue line to green line. Meaning that yeah, Amazon can continue a little bit higher, maybe another 10 bucks from here. But the second it hits this green to blue area, this is where the danger is. And considering the fact that it's already running hot as it's getting close to it, it wouldn't surprise me whatsoever to see it slow down or pull back once it gets closer up there. If it ever even gets up there at all, it might pull back sooner than that. That's dangerous. That's so dangerous. Doesn't mean it can't continue upwards, but it means it's going to be dangerous along the way. Google Google is approaching its golden zone. Google is approaching a massive seller zone. Look at how sellers sold off right here. Sellers sold off right here. Guess what? Sellers are now showing that they're strong enough to start trying to sell off right here for Google. Yes, it's done a great job, but this is dangerous. And anybody, anybody who's just aping into these positions right now, buying an Amazon at an all-time high, buying a Microsoft at the, you know, $485 level, they're taking a massive risk. Now, look, don't get me wrong. I hope the gamble that those people are taking right now is right. I hope they are correct because guess what? I have thousands of dollars in exposure to these positions in the hyperscaler portfolio. I have thousands of dollars of exposure to them in my macro public portfolio. Think about this, right? I want you to really put this into perspective. I don't know the exact number, but I would assume that my um the VO its allocation towards Amazon, Google, and Microsoft is somewhere between 10 and 15%. It's somewhere in there, maybe a little bit higher, right? Let's call it 10 to 20%. That means that if I have $400,000 allocated to the S&P 500, I'm sitting between 40 to $100,000 of exposure to those three stocks. I want them to keep going. I don't want it to ever stop. I want Microsoft to go straight vertical. I want Amazon to go straight vertical. I want Google to go straight vertical cuz I'll make a whole bunch of money and my net worth will climb a whole bunch if that is the case. I want them to go up, but I can't be so naive to pretend like they're not running really dang hot right now. They're getting extremely euphoric right now and their prices are clearly running into major resistance zones that are going to present real danger of a slowdown or a pullback. And so because of that, I'm not trying to convince people to sell. What I am trying to convince people of is to take a second to think before you ape in. For all of you who are feeling the FOMO, feeling like you just need to jump into Amazon or Google or Microsoft. I want you to just take a second to think about this. I'm not saying you shouldn't. I'm not saying that you can't. I'm just saying I want you to at least put your your emotions for aside for a second and think about the fact that there is danger here. There's danger here. If you have $1,000 you want to invest into Amazon, maybe just start slow. Maybe don't go a,000 in right now because you're excited. Maybe give it a bit of time and see how it goes from here because yeah, it might continue upwards and it might just go straight up to 317. Yes, that is the case. But the also the other case is that this thing could pull back out of nowhere now that it's running hot. The best time to buy Amazon, the best time to buy Microsoft, the best time to buy Google in the short term and in the midterm is behind us. It just is behind us. when we were buying Google for example the first purchase that we did on Google in this portfolio would have been at what let's see in this new trade that we did because we were very we were very close to the bottom on this um let me open this let's see so the first purchase we did on Google would have been on July 24th at 320 bucks that would have been this Friday right here let me get rid of this a second right here 320 bucks that is the environment that you want to be purchasing in even you know whenever it starts to rally a little bit. But now chasing it and doing purchases right here when there were people kind of like the the folks here on the channel who were buying at lows who are going to start selling on you soon. It's just a dangerous point and so I'm I know I keep saying it so I'm going to stop saying it over and over again. I just need it to come on and be a s a voice of reason and say listen chasing these right now might be dangerous in the short to midterm. Now, let's talk about the long term, though, because some of you may say, "Well, Tyler, if it's so dangerous in the short to long short to midterm, why aren't you selling? Why don't you go to a Google, Amazon, Microsoft that are up so much right now, just just start selling them?" It's because these are long-term positions for me, right? In the long term, I think that Alphabet is going to find itself between 477 and 560. I think it's coming up there one day. I don't know how long it'll take. I have no idea. I think it's going there. Amazon, for example, I think Amazon's running hot to 317 to 364 one day. I think Amazon's going to push this high. Microsoft. This is going to be a hot take, but I believe that Microsoft will push between 744 and a,000 bucks one day. I don't know. I know people are going to say, Tyler, that's a, you know, five. How much is that? What's What would their market cap be relative right now? Microsoft 3.5 trillion. Yeah. I mean, we're talking about a company that would be sitting five trillion, 7 trillion, 10 trillion. I know. I know. Because my bet is that what they're doing with these um data centers and the hyperscaler narrative, I think it's going to work. I think it's going to work. I thought it was going to work before everybody started thinking it was going to work again a week ago. That's why I started these positions because I was looking at these and I was saying, listen, I think they're going to be right about this and the market's going to be shocked. So, yeah, I think Microsoft one day is going to try to push up to 744 to a,000 bucks. It might take three years, but I do think that they're going to make it happen. And so although in the short term to midterm I know there's danger here, I'm not going to sell and miss out on potential long-term gains when I got a beautiful entry on all these companies. I won't I I won't do that. I won't do that. And so that then goes to say, so if you are someone, in my opinion, and I'm not a financial adviser. I'm literally just a random guy in a purple room. If you are someone who's wanting to buy Microsoft for the long term, like dollar cost averaging to Microsoft, dollar cost averaging Amazon, it's not a bad time. If you believe that they're going to still rally up to these higher levels and push towards all-time highs over the next two, three, four, five, ten years, yeah, it's never a bad time. I want to make one thing clear. If you're a long-term investor, there's basically never a bad time to dollar cost average. If you want to buy a little Microsoft and hold it for 10 years, do it. It's very likely going to produ produce you gains at some point in the future. There's nothing wrong with that. I'm just talking about the short term, the midterm, because most people aren't buying Microsoft right now, carefree in the world, and holding it until 2037. No, most people are buying it right now because they want to make some gains. They want to ride this bad boy up. They want to make a bit of profit. And those of you who are looking for that, I'm not quite sure that's a good idea because there's danger. Although it can continue upwards, although Microsoft can push up towards say 550 bucks, 650 bucks, every step of the way is so full of danger that the odds are not in your favor. The odds are not in the favor of the buyers anymore. The odds are in the favor of the buyers down here. What I would probably be doing is considering rotating into the places that everyone's abandoning. You look at a micron that's down and it's been beaten up. Everyone hates it. Everyone's forgetting about it. I'd be considering rotating here. This is more what I would be considering doing much sooner than buying an Amazon at an all-time high. Right? So, that's my approach. One thing I'm considering doing, this is a gamble. This is stupid. This is a gamble and I'm debating it. is actually hedging my hyperscaler portfolio right now on maybe Amazon with a short trade. What that would look like is me going to Amazon, right? And I use liquid as you all know. Going to Amazon, opening up a $100, $200 short trade and basically betting that Amazon's price in the short term is going to go down. And the reason why I would do that is because if Amazon does start to reverse trend, which I think it could either cool down or pull back sometime sooner than later, maybe a bit higher, maybe a bit higher, like 295, I would get the opportunity to make a bit of capital, a bit of cash on that that I could then throw into my Amazon position on the lower end so that I have the ability to go in and build up my position with free money, with profit. This is something that I do uh rather frequently. This is something that I've actually done with SoFi a decent amount. When SoFi's price was pushing towards the upper side, I was opening up short trades as it would push into the seller zone, riding them back about halfway down, and then taking profit off of them to reinvest it as we hit these lower sides, right? So, this is something I'm not new to this, right? This is something that I've done before. I just don't know if I want to because it's so euphoric. In moments like this when Amazon is euphoric, Microsoft is euphoric, Google's euphoric. Betting against them, it doesn't go your way a lot of the time, which is why I don't like to short very often because it's a risky business. So, I might I might not do it. I'll keep you guys updated and I'll let you know. But what I do know what I do know is that I am not buying right now. I just can't I can't buy I can't buy an Amazon that just pushed to an new alltime high that's up 20 plus% and all of its indicators are overbought. I can't buy a Google right now. I can't buy a Microsoft right now. I got to see how this plays out and if they cool down a bit and then I'll go from there. Okay? So, I'll keep you updated as it plays out. If you are someone who does want to take on a hedge, someone who does want to open up a short trade, open up a long trade on your favorite stocks, don't forget I am an affiliate partner of Liquid. This is a company who has one of the best trading platforms in the entire world. And I don't even think it's very close. You can up open up buys, sells, longs, and shorts on all of your favorite stocks. 10x, 5x, 20x leverage, etc. Understand leverage can be very risky. So, you only should even listen to what I'm saying if you understand it. That's available for you down below. Also, don't forget the exact tools that I was using to go in and purchase a Microsoft whenever it was at 30, you know, 60 bucks, 354 bucks. The same tools that I was using to buy Amazon when it was at 228 or Google whenever it came down towards 321. The toolkit, which is this meter, which goes up when the price goes up and when it's in the red zone, the price is getting too high, green zone, price is too low. All of that is available through the toolkit. Okay, that's available for you. you can access it, you can download it. The link is down below. So, those are the two things I want you to check out. Liquid if you're a trader, the toolkit if you want to get some technical analysis done for you. Okay, I'll keep you updated as it plays out. This has been a crazy crazy ride so far and I think it's only going to get crazier from here. I am going to be doing a live stream later today for the Palunteer earnings. So, do make sure that you tune in for that and I'll update you a bit more on the hyperscalers as well. And I can't wait to see you all in the next one. Peace out everybody.