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I may actually start building into possibly my Google position because my Google position is only up about 10%, which is a bit lower than the rest of them are, right?
Contexto ...I may actually start building into possibly my Google position because my Google position is only up about 10%, which is a bit lower than the rest of them are, right?
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All right, what's up everybody, and welcome back to another Thursday here in the stock market. Well, in today's video, I want to talk to you all about something that is happening right now within the AI trade that I believe will be extremely important for any of you who have exposure to AI stocks, especially semiconductors. We're talking Nvidia, Micron, AMD, SK Hynix, SanDisk, etc. You name it. And at this point, that's a lot of you. A lot of you have exposure to semiconductors here on the channel. So, this is going to be very important for you because listen, I'm not going to lie. This thing that we're talking about today, this thing that's happening, it could be foreshadowing that some juicy gains are coming for AI investors, and I don't think the market's really expecting that right now. I don't really think they're seeing this thing that we're going to talk about today, okay? So, this is going to be a big one, and I'm going to walk you through everything. We're first and foremost going to talk about what it is that's happening and why it's so important. Then we're going to talk about why I believe it's going to be so impactful for AI stocks in general, again, your Microns, your AMDs, your Nvidias, etc. And then I'll walk you through what I'm doing in my own portfolios right now as a result of what we're seeing over in the AI trade. So, we have a good bit to get into today, and I don't want to keep it too long on a Thursday, folks. So, let's go ahead and let's jump straight on in. So, first and foremost, let's go over what is happening. What is this big thing that I'm talking about? Well, the big thing that I'm talking about actually revolves around our good old pal Nvidia. As we can see, Nvidia's actually been performing really really well recently. Um they had that news a few days ago that SpaceX was going to be completely dropping AMD and solely using Nvidia, and that kind of gave them a bit of a boost. And then when AMD also came in and not underreported, they beat earnings, but it they didn't give an earnings report that the market was excited about and also gave Nvidia a bit of a boost. I think reminding a lot of people that Nvidia is the big dog on the yard, right? And we've seen Nvidia performing really well recently. And as a result of it performing well recently, we're actually seeing something happening on its chart right now that is very very important. And as I mentioned before, it could be foreshadowing that we might see some gains coming in real soon for your TSMCs, your Broadcoms, your Samsungs, your Microns, your AMDs, etc. Now, this thing that we're seeing happening on Nvidia's chart right now is the fact that its price is now officially breaking out of the structure that it's been trapped under since let's go ahead and call it 83 days ago. Because as you can see, Nvidia has spent the last 83 days trapped in this downtrend, trapped in this descending structure, constantly being forced down, and honestly boring a lot of investors. There are so many people that over the last 6 weeks kind of forgot that Nvidia was the first one, you know, in March to really give us those insane gains within the top five. This thing pumped 43% from April into May, but after it kind of slowed down in May, a lot of people turned their attention to your AMDs and your Microns because they kept going, right? They kept going. But fast forward 83 days, what we can see is that as of yesterday, Nvidia is now officially breaking out of this structure. And I believe that if this breakout is successful, if Nvidia can complete the three steps to get out of this structure, that we could see Nvidia going for a new all-time high sometime soon. And I don't think the market was expecting that. I don't think the market is still expecting it. I don't think the market notices what's happening right now. But I want you all to notice what's happening right now. So, in today's video, our primary focus is going to be Nvidia. We're going to talk about the three steps that need to occur in order for this breakout to be confirmed, and then I'll dive in and more into what sort of impact this could have on Micron, AMD, and the others. So, when it comes to breaking out of a trend like this, when it comes to breaking out of a structure like this, as I mentioned before, it's a three-step process. And funnily enough, Nvidia's already completed two of them within the span of the last 24 hours. So, when you're in a structure like this, these are the three steps. First, you need to break the trend line. As you can see, Nvidia put in this high, this high, and this high. And that created a trend line, a very clear resistance level that will serve as the seller zone. This is the part of the structure that is scary because every time Nvidia's come up to it, it's fallen off of it. Come up to it, fell from it. Came up to it, fell from it up until this point in which Nvidia said, "Nope." And it went straight up through that bad boy and pushed out of the structure. That is step number one complete. Now, once you break through the structure, once you break through the trend line, the next thing that you're looking for is a higher high. Can you actually break the downtrend itself? Okay? [snorts] Because just because you break the trend line, doesn't mean you've broke the downtrend. Remember, a downtrend is a series of lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, and you create the structure, right? A downward structure. So, just because you come up and you break out of the trend line, when you're right here, you're still setting a lower high, right? So, the downtrend is still intact and you easily could just crash back towards the downside. So, when you break through the structure, it's very important that you come up and break through the actual previous high to establish that the downtrend itself has ended and that's exactly what Nvidia did. Nvidia broke through the trend line, came up, approached this previous high right here, and just went straight up through it, completing step two of the three-step process. And that realistically just leaves Nvidia with the third and final step, which is breaking through the golden zone. Now, if you watch my video on the golden zones, you know exactly how to draw this, but if you don't, what you're going to do is you're going to grab your Fibonacci's and you're going to draw on your high from your previous all-time high and your low at your most recent macro low, which is going to be right there on July 29th of 2026. And once you do that, if you set your settings to look exactly like mine and make sure that your fib levels based on log scale are turned on, and if you can't turn those on by the way, just go down to your settings down here, turn your turn your chart on logarithmic. Oh, let me move myself up a bit more. Turn yourself on logarithmic and you will be able to do it. Once you set your settings to look like that, you will have the golden zone. And the golden zone is the last step. The golden zone is the final key. And if Nvidia's price is capable of breaking through this golden zone, I'm telling you Nvidia can make a run up towards $238 or even $254. You could be looking at an Nvidia running towards an all-time high. And a lot of people don't believe this, right? Every time I say this for stocks, people go, "Tyler, the golden zone is not that important." And then it constantly proves them wrong. Look at what happened with Amazon. When we go and see what happened with Amazon, I told everyone, "Guys, I'm telling you, if Amazon breaks above that golden zone, you're going to see it try to run towards that new all-time high. It wouldn't shock me whatsoever." And that's exactly what you got. It broke the golden zone, and then it ran towards the new all-time high. And it actually completed that three-step process. Look at this. You can see that Amazon did all three. It came up, it made a new high, it broke the golden zone, it broke the trend. Then it went for an all-time high. Now, it did it in a bit of a different order because Amazon's structure was different, but you get the point. Nvidia now just has one step left. It's broke the trend line, it's gone through the higher high, now it just needs to clear the golden zone. And the golden zone currently rests at $226, which isn't very far in front of us. And so, while everybody's talking about how the AI trade is dead and that nothing can bring it back and AMD's earnings crushed it, I'm sitting here looking at Nvidia going, "Hold on, Nvidia might be leading the charge upwards and foreshadowing to the market that there could still be gains on the horizon and that money can still be made here." And it's going to be extremely extremely important to pay attention to what Nvidia does here. To what Nvidia does here, because look, I'm telling you, if Nvidia gives this market strength by breaking through that golden zone and running towards an all-time high, it's going to ignite the market. It's just what it's done. And if you look at historically what has happened with Nvidia, it has led the charge. Nvidia has led the charge. When Nvidia rallies, the market tends to rally. When Nvidia dumps, the market tends to dump. And Nvidia has been ahead of this market by a couple weeks. For example, look at what happened right here. On June 20, let's call it June 29th, Nvidia actually bottomed and started to rally, and you saw it go from 190 all the way back up to 214. But in the meantime, we saw stocks like Micron, that's when they peaked, and they started to fall before then. So, Nvidia was a couple weeks ahead, and now that they're rallying right now, and you know, Micron's just getting back up to its trend, Nvidia's already broken through its trend. It's already gotten rejected off of it, come back down, and then broken through it. And so, my whole point here is that Nvidia has been ahead of the crowd for a while now, and if it's still ahead of the crowd, there is a very reasonable assumption that if Nvidia continues this momentum, that it's going to set this AI thing back up for more success, and you will see that liquidity start rotating out of Nvidia into other semiconductors just like Micron and just like AMD. And considering the fact that we have gotten some decent strength recently from hyperscalers, I can see a world in which this contributes to them all running. And you see semis and software and everything just running, and that could be fantastic. But again, it all comes down to whether or not Nvidia can break the golden zone, because let me make one thing very clear to you. Nvidia's running right now because of news. Nvidia's running right now because of SpaceX, because of what happened with AMD. And oftentimes, news-based runs can be a little bit weaker. They can be a little bit weaker because that news can flip very quickly, right? And so, knowing that, obviously, there is still a risk here. And the risk is that Nvidia gets rejected off this golden zone, and it just starts coming back down. Look, there's a world in which Nvidia gets rejected and comes all the way back down under 190 bucks, right back into the structure, and maybe even falls through it. This is still possible. It's not the most likely scenario, but it is still possible. And so, what I'm not going to do is sit here and convince you all that we are back. You guys know I'm not like that. I'm not going to tell you we're back unless I genuinely believe we're back, but I am telling you that what Nvidia is doing right now could be setting up the AI market for gains, and you need to pay attention to it. There's definitely still a threat. There's definitely still danger here, but it's absolutely worth paying attention to. Now, if we just remove all of this real quick, remove the three-step process, remove the structure, and we turn on the TH Toolkit. What you can also see right now is that if we head out to the daily timeframe, Nvidia has the room to run. It's like, yeah, it is extended. It's at plus 2.4 right now as it's pumping back upwards, but realistically, guys, I mean, we've seen Nvidia the last time it was around 2.4 would have been right here in a very, very similar situation. But, no, this is actually a very similar situation. This is actually weirdly similar. Watch this. What you can see is that back here, Nvidia got this drive, it started pumping, and it hit 2.4 right here as it approached the golden zone, just like Nvidia is doing right now as it's coming up to that golden zone, and now it's at 2.4, probably about to push a little bit higher. The last time that we were in this exact scenario was right here, and look what Nvidia did. Push through it, hit a new all-time high, and went up into those extension zones. What we're seeing right now on the daily HCI is the exact same setup that we saw back here. It doesn't mean it has to do the same exact thing, and people who get caught up in this idea that history constantly repeats itself are mistaken. It does not have to, but it just goes to show that there is the capability. It is possible, and it is worth paying attention to. So, what I want you to do moving forward from here. Oh, and by the way, before I get into that, this is the TH Toolkit. If you want to be able to get the HCI meter, which tells you if the price is getting too high or too low, and see where the zones are, it's linked down below. Go check it out. But, what I want you to do from here, all right, is I want you to go and draw a golden box from $225 to $217, and stare at it. Stare at it, and watch what happens here. If Nvidia gets rejected and it starts coming back down, assume you're going to see Nvidia heading back towards $200 to $205, somewhere in here. But, if Nvidia starts breaking through this thing, I'm telling you, you might want to start looking to get in position in some of these other places because I think you're going to see Nvidia lead the charge, and then you're going to see that bring a bunch of liquidity back into the semiconductor trade. All right, it's going to be well, well worth paying attention to and I'll try my best to update you guys. You guys know, many of you I didn't announce it on the stream yesterday. I am going out of town today. I'm leaving in 1 hour actually. And I'm going to be out of town till Sunday afternoon or so, okay? And so, because of that I'm not exactly sure how much I'm going to be able to update you. But the good part is the market will only be only be open tomorrow. So, I'm going to try to get you an update tomorrow. Turn on your notifications. Make sure you see it. It might be a short. It might be even be a community post. So, turn on your notifications and make sure you see it. But I'm telling you guys, I know I keep reiterating it, but I'm telling you it's going to be very important. Because if Nvidia can start gaining strength, you're going to see that same exact strength applied to something like Micron. You're going to see Micron start trying to maybe bottom out on this pullback that it's been seeing and maybe it tries to go up to break through its trend. Maybe AMD finally does find enough support to get it back up into this range up here. Maybe you have something like an SK Hynix going up and breaking its trend. Maybe you have a SanDisk going back up to its trend. All of these things are incredibly, incredibly possible if Nvidia can open the door. So, let's watch it very, very closely and see how it goes. Now, I do want to add a quick caveat. I do want to add something real quick, okay? Before we jump off, I I do want to let you guys know, if it gets rejected off the golden zone, it's not the end of the world. It's not the end of the world. The only way that becomes truly problematic is if Nvidia gets rejected and comes back into this structure. If it comes back into this descending structure, because that means this is what's called a fake out. Like it faked a breakout and came back in. That's no bueno. That's no good. But if it does come back down and find some support say on the structure and go back up, it's totally normal. Remember, it's trying to change the downtrend. An uptrend is higher highs boom, and higher lows. So, now that it's at a higher high, it might come back down to set a higher low. That's totally fine. It's only problematic if it comes back into this structure. So, don't freak out if you see it pulling back. Just understand, just understand that that's normal as long as it's above the structure. All right? So, I'll keep you updated as it does play out. As I mentioned before, keep those updates all right, keep an eye out for the updates, especially over the next 24 to 48 hours. All right? Um in the meantime, I will let you guys know when it comes to my own portfolio. Although I'm not going to make a movie yet because we are sitting back and watching to see if it's capable of breaking through this golden zone, I am positioning a bit. And one way that I am positioning is I actually am positioning a bit of extra cash in a little bit here into the hyperscaler portfolio. So, as many of you know, this was supposed to be a $10,000 trade, but I only got $4,500 injected into the trade before all the hyperscalers started popping. So, I no longer felt comfortable buying while everyone was euphoric. But, if we do see the hyperscalers kind of still staying a bit mellow, but Nvidia starts breaking out, I think some of that euphoria could find its way into the hyperscaler trade as well, and I may actually start building into possibly my Google position because my Google position is only up about 10%, which is a bit lower than the rest of them are, right? So, I am positioning right now to potentially capitalize on this in my hyperscaler portfolio specifically, but that wouldn't be till next week anyway, so I'll update you when that plays out. All right? But, outside of that, I'm not really making too many moves. I am capitalizing on this through my VOO position anyway, which is currently sitting at 431,000 bucks. So, yeah, that's kind of where we are. So, I'm not making any moves right now, but I am positioning and I may get more exposure to my hyperscalers if Nvidia starts opening up this door by breaking through. So, I think that's all that I got for you today. I think we covered everything. If you have any questions, do let me know down in the comments down below. Um one thing I did want to let you guys know is if you do have the toolkit, I do have an update coming for the toolkit very soon. It's an automatic divergence detector, so it detects when there's bullish divergence and when there's bearish divergence. As you can see for Nvidia, for example, it works extremely well. It detected this bullish divergence before that little pump, this bullish divergence before that pump, this bearish divergence before this dump, this bearish divergence this bearish divergence before that dump. So, that is an update that is coming very, very soon. Remember, when you buy the toolkit, you get every single future update that I release. All right? So, you're going to get this update, and I am currently working on a golden zone detector update for the toolkit as well. So, stay tuned for all of you who have the toolkit. If you don't have the toolkit, check out the link to the toolkit down below. But, with that in mind, I think that's everything that I have for you today. I hope you guys do have a great day. I still have my videos planned. I have an educational video already recorded for you guys on Saturday. I'll get you an update on Sunday to get ready for the next week. Don't you worry. So, yeah. I think that's everything. I'll see you in the next one. Bye, everybody.
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