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Tom Lee: "2027 will Change You're Life in The Stock Market"

Tom Lee: "2027 will Change You're Life in The Stock Market"

The Creative Investor
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Transcrição Completa
Tom Lee says the S&P 500 could hit 8,000 by the end of August. Tom Lee also says that 2027 could be one of the best years for the stock market. Now, naturally, I am intrigued by predictions such as those. We're going to listen to what Tom Lee says about this run to 8,000 in September and 2027 being one of the best years of our lifetime. And I will provide my take on this. Where is the opportunity? Where do you want to be buying in this market right now? Not all areas are created equal. We got a lot to get into, guys. I don't want to waste your time. The only thing that I ask you to do is hit that like button for the YouTube algorithm to help push this video to more people that need to hear it that will profit from it. So, I think just doing this in chronological order, I think we should start with this 3 minute long clip here where Tom Lee says the S&P 500 could hit 8,000 by the end of August and then we'll look at what he said for 2027. Take a listen. >> Are too exuberant right now. Let's welcome in our panel. CNBC contributor fund strats Tom Lee, Solless's Dan Greenhouse. We're all here at Post 9 as you can clearly see. Tom, it's good to have you. I'll start with you first. You say we could go 7,900 to 8,000 this month alone. So, this momentum is going to continue. Yeah, I think uh the a the deleveraging that happened a couple of weeks ago put a lot of cash on the sidelines got sentiment quite bearish and then on top of people getting very skeptical of the Fed got markets to derisk and now I think as earnings have been good and I think there's a rethink of how inflation might be cooler than expected and of course AI is still strong there's going to be a chase I think that chase takes us towards 7900 8,000 >> most people who are putting out bullish notes cite both of the facts that that you did this major deleveraging process which which was a reset for the market. There was no real fundamental change in in anything. It was just there was some froth that needed to be worked out. There was some leverage that got a little bit too high and all of that needed to be worked out. And then the backbone of the whole thing, the earnings. John Waldron of Goldman was talking about that just yesterday morning. >> Yeah. Uh that's exactly right. I mean, earnings this quarter is coming in more than $15 ahead of what people expect at the start of the quarter, but what's really more impressive is 2027 earnings are up now $8. So, we're probably close to $410 for 2027 earnings, and we're only 3 weeks into earning season. I I actually think it might settle out closer to 425 by the time earning season's over. >> Sound reasonable to you? And it's not just Tom, obviously. It's, you know, I've been hearing more 8,000 calls sort of, you know, day by day with Ed Yardi saying his 8250 could be conservative for the very reason that Tom just suggested. Earnings are just really good. >> Yeah. I mean, as we're seeing on the screen, the S&P is already at 7,700. So 8,000, no disrespect. I mean, it's not a huge percentage wise. >> I think the implication though is like that that's just the next stop in this train. >> Yeah. I mean because cuz the thing with the earnings is even if you X out technology and you subtract say 10 percentage points off the gross number earnings are still good and when you listen to as as many of us do any number of companies in any number of industries the AI almost all of them >> yeah the AI story is going well from Eaton and 3M and those adjacent companies. Uh you look at the charts of the KRE the BKX the financials are at highs the KIE the insurance companies are at highs. uh the commentary across the board from the card companies who I mention every quarter about consumer spending just fine. So you have all the investment themes going on, AI, power generation, etc., etc. The consumer is doing fine. Jobless claims two weeks in a row, sub 200 for for viewers out there who are not aware under 200,000 in JavaS claims didn't happen one time from 2000 through basically through co these are exceedingly incredible numbers. And so just when you take a step back from one being bullish or bearish, the backdrop is positive. Now the valuation argument is something we can have. You look at SanDisk and some of the movies in those names, obviously South Korea, but but the fundamental backdrop is still very positive. >> To be quite honest, I think Tom Lee and that other guy are correct. I think stocks have a lot of reasons to move higher. I also talked about this in the last video that came out at 400 p.m. on this channel that look, you know, there's two different sides of the markets here. There's the AI hardware trade, there's the broadening trade. I think Tom Lee when he was referencing the broader index, he's more so talking about the hardware trade and the hyperscalers just because of that's their waiting. But um the other guy was talking more about the other themes out outside of the you know hyperscalers and the the AI hardware trades and there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic right now. I do think um what's really going to matter right now whether or not we get a pre-midterm correction is what happens with the war with Iran. If oil goes up another $15, if we start bombing Iran again, we're probably going to have a midterm correction. If we get a deal to open the straight of moose and oil comes down, we're not going to have a midterm election correction. at least not until the next Fed meeting, which would likely be the next catalyst outside of any, you know, CPI reports, which will come out uh here, I believe, pretty soon. Don't don't quote me on that. Um, now it might be like another month from now. Either or. We don't have a lot to react to at this point. Nvidia earnings potentially. I mean, like the biggest thing I think is the Iranian conflict and what that does for Fed rate hike expectations for oil. And I don't think Trump wants to cause oil to go up again. I think Trump wants to get oil down desperately between now and the midterms. And this is kind of what we talked about when the conflict started. I said, "Look, it's a midterm election year. It takes some time for people to get over higher gas prices. You probably have until July or August for the conflict to to to go on and then it's going to be about the midterms and about getting gas prices lower ahead of the midterms. And it doesn't look like Republicans are doing great in the initial readings of the midterms. So, I think that's top of mind from Trump and that is a positive for the markets. So, I'm not sold that we're going to have some kind of correction before the midterms, but it is a possibility. And again, you have to distinguish the two here. If you're really thinking about a correction before the midterms, you're thinking about AI hardware and hyperscalers. Could you get a broad market correction? You could, but we're kind of on opposite sides of of that trade at this point. I don't think there's going to be a catalyst that comes out between now and the midterms that causes ELF to sell off, that causes healthc care to sell off, that causes Walmart to sell off, these different sector groups. I just don't see it. Now, Tom Lee also said that 2027 could be one of the best years for the stock market. And this piqus my interest a lot more than predicting what the next move in the near term is is going to be. Tom Lee's here, uh, head of research at Fundstrat, chief investment officer, uh, of Fundstrat Capital, as well as a CNBC contributor. It's August 3rd. I'm glad to have you here, and I'm glad to have you here at 6:00 a.m. Um, ju just to get your comments. I thought in July, last time you were on, you shook me because you said that we could have before ending the year much higher that we could have a what was the draw down? You said it. I could have gotten to a six handle on the S&P based on the numbers you were talking about. >> Yeah. Something that'll feel like a bare market, you know, 10% kind of draw down. >> That's what you thought. It was not a good month in in for July. And you said that it was even for what you were expecting, it was not as positive as you were thinking, but it the averages didn't do that. They there was a day where the Dow went down 1250. Who knows what's going, you know, that was an AI unwind for that hedge fund to to explain it. Doesn't matter what caused it. It did get down what 7,200 nowhere near six. >> No. >> Or maybe 73. How low did I I'm I'm just off the top of my head. Is that enough now? Uh well, you know, I think August is a month to recover what how June and July have been sort of flat months, but earnings have >> earnings estimates have gone up a lot. So the stock market's kind of a coiled spring and then we had a huge deleveraging as you're talking about because of the AI unwind and Korea's policy makers panicking. So I I think the markets could actually rebound strongly this month. Like maybe we get to 7,800. >> This month the 7,800. >> Yeah. For the S&P. >> Is that forecast for the 10% draw down still intact? >> Yes. >> It is. >> Yeah. So >> can't you take that off the table? Just Will you do it for me? Say it doesn't have to. No, I'm kidding. Um so we get to 7,800 maybe a 10% draw down then close the year above 8,000. >> Yes. Yeah. I think because as we start to look at 2027, there's a lot of the clouds that are heading this year kind of lift. You know, the SpaceX unlock will be behind us and the market testing of the new Fed will be behind us. So, I I think and then of course there's already been a leverage unwind. So, I think 2027 could be one of the best years for the stock market. >> And you think part of the positive sentiment this month is going to be um cooler inflation data. >> Why? Why? Oil's back up. >> Yeah, oil's up and you know, we still have the tariffs working through. So, those are hitting the CPI numbers, but the real driver of inflation historically has been housing and wages. And housing has really disinflated. You know, we've had three months now of declining home prices. So, you're taking out one of the biggest weights for inflation. And then I think wage inflation is really muted. I mean, we'll find out this Friday. >> Hey, Tom. I I just want to ask you what you think of the Liupold Dash Brener situation and the idea that he was highly leveraged four times had to unwind this stuff. How much of that played into what you were just talking about with South Korea and the panic that happened there? How much of that was because he was selling that portfolio at the same time? >> Uh I think it was a big factor. Um because as you know Korea is basically two two companies Samsung and Highix. So it's memory and semis. um he of course had a very large following. So not only was his leverage on his $45 billion, let's say it was leveraged 150 billion, >> but there was a lot of money piggybacking on his trade. So I think in some ways uh you know the unwind and even last week was due to a lot of funds being aware that he might have been in trouble. I kind of agree with Tom Lee in the sense that next year is going to be one of the best years we have ever seen in the stock market and for for the index for that matter you know it's really going to depend on again the hyperscalers the AI hardware stocks how does the markets treat spending you know Google's going to go from spending what 2002 200 odd billion dollars this year to over 350 billion next year. And they're going to have to raise over a hundred billion in debt or selling of stock. SpaceX is going to have to raise over 80 billion. Microsoft will not really need to raise capital. They will be free cash flow positive. I'm sure they will raise capital though. Amazon's going to have to raise a hundred plus billion dollars. There's going to be 400 to500 billion dollars of cash that needs to be raised next year alone. Let alone open AAI or Enthropic, some of these other companies that that might need to raise capital as well. How does the market take that? That's really what's going to determine the headline index move for next year. And I I am optimistic that it that it will be a good year next year. But I think really where the magic is is in the broadening trade. It is in the second derivative of the AI trade. Okay, let me rewind a little bit. Think about the timeline of AI. I'm an AI Uber bull. Like I think your kids, if they're in their teens or whatever, they're going to live to be over a hundred years old healthy. AI is going to eliminate a lot of diseases, right? like I am that bullish on AI in the longer term sense, right? That's 10 plus years away. That's 5 to 10 years away before you start really like eliminating diseases at like record speed. Um but in the grand scope of the timeline of AI, the first winner are the semiconductors. They are the ones receiving all the money. I believe right now via deleveraging and overcrowding and simply the law of large numbers. Nvidia grew revenue 80% last quarter, year-over-year, they're not going to be growing revenue 80 plus% a year from now. So it's simply the law of large numbers is going to slow things down. So mix that with the leveraging, the overcrowding, the FOMO that we've seen, AI hardware, that trade is dead. Some stocks can do well, right? Like I think Qualcomm, Marll, AMD are interesting buys at the right price, right? Qualcomm and Marll right now I think are interesting buys. Um, are you going to get rich on those stocks? I don't think so anytime soon, but they're interesting. Okay, so it's not like I'm I hate AI hardware stocks. No, I've never hated AI hardware stocks. In fact, I got I made a lot of money on AI hardware stocks. Um, you know, multiple tenaggers. [laughter] Okay. uh like like don't don't hate me for telling you the truth. Okay. But in this timeline of AI, I think we are transitioning from AI hardware into the next derivative which are robotics companies like Tesla, Symbiotic, Rockwell Automation, Zebra Technologies, right? These are these are some of your core automation and robotics themes, right? And they're all a little different. Okay. of course, but I also think at the same time the software trade, they're going to be big winners from AI. Some of those companies, a Palanteer, a Zeta Global, a UI path, right? They're not the companies that win initially. There's a big bottleneck towards enterprise AI adoption, and that is restructuring data, getting people trained on AI. like back back in the internet days um you basically had companies using legacy systems like paper processes and then you slapped computers on top of it. It took a long time for people to know and learn how to use the computer to replace the paper right? Just to put this in simpler terms. So right now that's happening at record speed and I think it will continue. But companies have to reorchestrate the way they do things, the way their data is structured, where their data is structur structured, the systems that they are using. But you in 2027 and really 2028 through 2030, you're going to see software companies massively benefit from AI. It's going to be exponential. It's going to be ridiculous. You're going to look back three years from now and say, "Damn, Michael was right. I should have listened. That's my opinion. Obviously, I'm not a financial adviser, but you know, we've done very well this year. We're up 80 almost 81% in the trading community. If you guys want to come join us, check that link out down below in the description of today's episode. But I think we're in this weird transition period right now where we're going from everyone loving hardware to everyone rotating into other areas of the markets. the broadening trade software robotics I think are going to lead the markets next year. Okay, even if the index does well I like even if the index goes up 20% I think some of these other stocks are going to go up 50 to 100% next year that that's what I'm talking about a massive outperformance but then in the next in this timeline 10 20 30 year timeline of AI you're going to have other themes that pop up later healthcare and we don't even know exactly what wearables the next big company who knows right too far out to predict that or to invest in that theme at this Qualcomm for wearables. That's why I like Qualcomm. Okay, you could invest in that now. That's down the line a bit. But next year, it's all about robotics, automation, software, and really even companies that benefit from like their operating margins going up three to five or 10% whatever they are. Each company is going to be different. But if AI is truly not a bubble, if tr if truly all this capex is going to pay off, you have to see the vast majority of companies benefit from that. And I don't think a lot of those companies are priced to actually benefit from AI. This is not a winner takes all market for AI. It's impossible. You have to see like the internet, many companies benefit from it, if not all companies. And I do think that will happen. And again, whether it's the midterm election that's kind of, you know, causing this this gray transition period or whether it's, you know, the war with Iran or the Fed nervousness. I think it's all of those things to be honest that is causing, you know, it to not look so clear. Right? In other normal market environments, sentiment shifts quickly, right? This is a big trade though. you know, Wall Street, they're they're actively repositioning. Um, but you're kind of in a gray period right now where hardware is not quite like people still love hardware. People are starting to warm up to a lot of the software, a lot of the robotics trades, right? Look at Zebra. Zebra Technologies for an example. I have a very small position in this stock. I identified it at, you know, 250 as something I wanted to buy and I bought five shares. It's like stupid. I'm up like 50% on the stock. Look at this stock recently, you know, making a run here. Okay, following their earnings. I think there's a lot of legs to this one. If it comes down, that's a solid buy. Okay, just one example. The RSI is at 77, so don't like don't go out and just yolo into this stock. But we are in a transition period and I think next year while the index is going to look good, other single stocks are going to do a lot better. And this is one of those weird opportunities where I'm telling you what's going to happen here way before it happens. I think you have the next two to three months to position into some of these next big opportunities. And I've talked about this list of stocks for a while now and I will share them with you again within software. I think Zeta Global, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now, Zcaler, HubSpot, MongoDB, Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, and Pegas. They are all attractive opportunities right now within cyclicals. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike, Las Vegas Sands, Uber, very interesting financials, Wells Fargo, Robin Hood, Sofi, Fizzer, Rue, Lemonade, Oscar, uh, within robotics, Tesla, Rockwell Automation, Symbotic, Zebra Technologies within energy. I I I think Nphase could actually be interesting here, but also nuclear. I think solar is an easy way to deploy more um energy capabilities that I think people could get behind. Like if I was a politician right now, I would be pol I would be, you know, politicking to put like, you know, gas stations have the things that cover the gas pumps, right? At most gas stations, put solar panels on top of those. Put solar panels on. do that kind of theme for all your Walmarts, all your Targets, all your major parking lots. I think people would really get behind covering their cars in a Walmart parking lot. That kills two birds, one stone. I don't know why politicians aren't aren't talking about this. I think people would really get behind that. Lower their electricity bills at the same time. Feed the grid. Get more power for AI. One of the easiest themes I can think of. No, don't put solar panels in farm fields. Come on now. Let's Let's not be ridiculous. Put them on top of Put them on top of buildings. Put them on car parking lots. Right. That's an interesting play to me and I think it's something Trump would get behind. So, it's something I have my eyes on. Within AI stocks, you have Qualcomm, Marll, AMD. These are kind of the three that I like. AMD not as much because it's up a lot, but Qualcomm, Marll, if you want, if you're in love with AI hardware, those are interesting to me. So, yeah, I do agree with Tom Lee. Next year is going to be a really good year. I don't think it's going to be like a 50% move in the index. I think we could go up 10 to 20% next year in the index but I think you know choosing stocks alle cart you know some of those stocks that I mentioned on the list I think are going to go up well over 100% between now and the end of next year well over that now again we are up 81% year to date in the trading community portfolio not really a part of the AI hardware trade I think that's going to get even more incredibly insane into the end of this year I think it's going to be ridiculous next year I I think the portfolio is probably going to more than double next year. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. The only thing we do is beat the markets to the puck, right? I predicted the, you know, AI hardware crash. I wish I shorted it more, right? We did a little bit, but I wish I shorted it more. Right? You're always going to have that, damn, I I should have done this different or that different. In terms of the next evolution of the AI trade, we've seen it start, but Wall Street's not even talking about it yet. Wall Street's not even talking about the robotics trades or the the broadening to continue or the software stocks. I I think we are still incredibly early. And even then, specifically for software, like Data Dog sold off um uh who else sold off? Um a a ton of them recently sold off, but like Data Dog and Figma and um who is the other one? Applovin and HubSpot, you know, they all sold off like 15 to 20% on pretty good earnings, right? Apploven's growing 53% year-over-year. Management says they're going to grow 30% per year for the next 10 years. They missed um by a hair on revenue. stock pummel, right? Like come on now. That's a sign that there is a lot of fear still in software and that's a sign that there's a lot of opportunity in software. Um just uh you know talk about software here. So this is kind of how I'm thinking about the markets right now. Do we have a midterm correction? We could. But, you know, I I I don't see the catalyst at this point for a broad market pullback. Like, the NASDAQ fell 10% from highs recently because AI hardware went through some Our trading community portfolio was up. It was in the green during this 10% NASDAQ pullback. Like, you could see something like that again. Obviously, the next jobs report is going to be important. The next CPI report is going to be important. And if Tomley is correct and they come in low, that's going to continue to fuel the broadening and to a certain extent weigh on AI hardware and also weigh on hyperscalers because that side of the trade, hardware and hyperscalers, they kind of benefit from going bad with the rotation trade because it forces capital into those stocks because that is where there is a lot of growth and you know focus right now. But I, you know, I think one of the biggest risks to this market is the Iran conflict and specifically how Trump handles it or any kind of one-off tariff threats or something like that. I don't think there's a lot of appetite right now between now and the midterms to cause the markets to fall, to cause oil to go up, to cause a bigger problem. I think Trump wants to do some damage mitigation at this point heading into the midterms because it doesn't look like Republicans are going to do well at all. So, you know, I know I'm talking a lot here. Hopefully, you guys found value out of this perspective. If if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Ladies and gentlemen, I hope you have a fantastic rest of your weekend. Again, I hope you learned something or found perspective out of this video. Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next

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