Markets To Surge 20% Until 'Global Financial Reset' Kills Everything | Chris Vermeulen

And I think we could be entering this last euphoric phase like they could be underwater for who knows several years, a decade or [music] longer. So I think we're going to have one more push here and that's going to create that feeding frenzy where everybody's like, "Okay, forget it. AI is here to stay. Let's get in. Let's keep making money and uh that could be almost a 20% move in the NASDAQ." Why do you say the dollar's in the bull market though? Is that because interest rates are going higher or are you looking at um a significant upward momentum here? The stock market is breaking new records as a slump in July has now ended with a strong start to August. The S&P [music] 500 is up about 6% since the beginning of the month. Gold is now reaching $4,300 an ounce. So, broken out of its consolidating range. We'll talk to Chris about both precious metals and stocks, uh, which sectors to avoid, which sectors to focus on, and how he thinks oil is going to trade over the next couple weeks to months. This is a very exciting episode because there's a lot of volatility in the markets right now. So, it's really important to be positioned properly and manage your risk properly. Managing risk is also on the agenda today. And we're going to draw on some case studies as to how not to lose a lot of money very quickly in today's very volatile and tumultuous market. And Chris is finally going to break down whether or not he thinks this rally in both stocks and commodities is short-lived and whether or not this is just a dead cap bounce. Um or maybe this is the start of a new sustained rally. He's going to reveal the key levels to watch for. the key levels is also going to be on the agenda uh when we go over Kowi. This video is sponsored by Koshi. We're going to review a very important Koshi trade. Uh the largest prediction in the market in the US. It's unlike a sports book because you're trading peer-to-peer on real world events from economic data to political outcomes. The price moves based on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below or scan the QR code here to get started. And new users who use my code lin can get up to $500 when you trade $25. It's CFTC approved in all uh states and available in all 50 states including California and Texas. So if we take a look at uh this capture trade S&P 500 closed by the end of 2026. This is something we'll be discussing with Chris today. Most traders are placing a high probability with the highest probability of between 7600 points to 8,400 points. And that kind of is the upward trajectory that uh uh we're heading towards, I think. And we'll be going over this with Chris as well. So, let's find out if Chris agrees with the uh prediction markets. If you place $50 on, let's say, $8,000 points to 8,200 points by the end of the year. And if you turned out to be correct, your uh upside on that trade may be $362 in a $50 trade if you turn out to be correct. All right, Chris, welcome back to the show. It's been a while. I hope you've enjoyed your vacation and uh the markets missed you. Welcome back. >> All right. Well, thanks for having me. Yeah, and I miss the markets. I love them. So, let's dive in. >> Stock market ripping higher. Now, we've had a bit of a pullback since July. I was talking to you offline. The Korean Cosby index was the perfect in perfect indicator of what could happen in the US as well. So, the stock market there had the worst month in their history, the entire country's history. like something like 3% of the country's um population got margin called it was pretty bad and uh that was led by chip stocks going down in the US chip stocks have also gone down somewhat and just in the last couple of um couple of weeks huge rebound and now things are ripping higher as we speak today on the 6th of August the NASDAQ is once again down so it's just whipsawing back and forth and uh we were also talking offline about the uh situational ational awareness Leopole Ashen Brener's fund $45 billion fund blowing up because of excessive leverage which we can talk about. So today's session is about um managing risk managing volatility and uh how to trade this kind of volatility. Presumably it's a trader's dream when you have whipssaw movements back and forth to this kind of degree and um you just have to I guess manage your positions properly. Let's start with uh this rebound that you're seeing right now from a technical perspective whether or not that's the beginning of a renewed uptrend into new new uh new highs for everything. >> Yeah. Well, there there's no doubt um the markets right now they're they're firming back up. We've seen what looks to be a cycle low. We we can take a quick look at the charts here. And if we take a look at the uh the S&P 500, we can we can see based let me just zoom out a little bit here. This is the same with the NASDAQ. This the same with with the overall stock market as a whole. We've had a series of these very big kind of standout lows. And the NASDAQ, the most recent one, the NASDAQ is is much further, but each one of these has something very similar in common. Price starts to trade sideways for a while and then it starts to really kind of weaken and then we see a wave of panic selling and people start to jump ship. We do see some margin calls. We see some strong selling. And so it's these waves, these these last little waves where panic hits and almost all asset classes get pulled down temporarily. We saw the same just a couple weeks ago. So I like to look at the market through what I call inner market analysis. And that is we use we use price, we use time, and we use sentiment. And when you look at the market from three different angles, you get this three-dimensional view. So you can get a good feeling of what the market is doing. How strong is it? Is this a bounce or is this a rally? And so these cycle lows that we've had, these are the combination kind of that sweet spot where we have multiple time cycles putting in a low. We've got sentiment shifting yet the underlying price and the trend is actually still up. And so we had that and when we come out of these, we have these very strong impulse explosive moves. We had it back over here earlier this year. We've seen it happen over here. And sometimes these can drag out for months where the market just keeps running higher. So the market has technically reset. And you know, one other thing here really quick here. If we take a look over at the the NASDAQ, the the QQQ, if we just kind of zoom into this price action, you'll notice we did see big money really moving away from AI, from tech, and the money wasn't actually moving out of the stock market, which is the key. Where is where was it going? If we take a look at the equal weighted stock market, so the rest of the stocks, all that money was piling into those, meaning people are saying, "Hey, the AI space is starting to get a little bit negative. It's starting to go lower. There's some negative news. There's a lot of volatility. Do I really want to tinker and mess around in that?" And so, they've a lot of people have moved out of that space and they've just gone to general stocks in the stock market. And so, this is a good sign. This is telling us we have a broad market rally. And of course, we're seeing all-time highs hit with the overall equal weighted stock market. So, the stock market is healthy here. Uh it looked like it it was on the verge over the past month, on the verge of breaking down and starting something more significant, but it miraculously found a bottom and now it's shooting higher and and money's piling back into all stocks across the board. You know, we're seeing equal weighted, we're seeing small caps, micro caps. So, that is a sign that risk is back on. is just not so much, you know, right back into the big AI stocks. There's still some people nervous to enter that. >> Nervous to enter the AI stocks. What do you mean by that, Chris? >> Well, I mean I mean we we've seen a sharp rebound. I think there's a lot of short covering. A lot a lot of people were betting on the stock market falling and so you know this huge strong rally that we've seen like let me just pull up um SMH and semiconductors. We've seen pretty strong pop and bounce. We saw technology sector which is XLK have a very strong bounce as well. There's a lot of people that were betting on it falling and and we've seen this very sharp bounce like the tech sector but rallied like 12% in in four or five days. >> Uh so I mean in general the public is still all hot and heavy over AI but there is a small wave that isn't fully piling in or else we would see these breaking out to all-time highs because we've got the S&P 500 at all-time highs. We've got uh the Dow at all-time highs. the equal weighted is breaking out. We've got the micro caps, you know, pushing to all-time highs. So, people not quite as much money is piling back in. People are a little more nervous because people have have taken a a haircut on a lot of those stocks, right? So, they're a little nervous to get committed to the space. Some some people are. >> If you zoom out on the S&P one more time, Chris, uh I just want to bring something to your attention. Now, rebounds and rallies from uh corrections are common, but typically uh what I've noticed in the past is that the um [snorts] you you you you get a recovery that extends several weeks um and a 7% move in the S S&P 500 in a span of 3 to 4 days is still rather unusual. Uh this is looking like a V-shaped recovery on steroids. And um if when you see a huge kind of like a hockey stick movement like that, is that a um really bullish signal to you or do you look at that and say, "Yeah, things are starting to get a little bit overbought and it's time to take something off the table." So, if if it is more so kind of a news-driven move, uh I I I usually question it a little bit more. But believe it or not, when you have when you have the these things line up where you have time cycles lining up, you've got sentiment has just gone from from from dumping stocks, you know, the sentiment goes to an extreme. This is actually a fairly normal move. I mean, if we take a look, you can see over here was a 13% rebound in a couple days. Over here, you could argue was a five. you know, where do you where do you want to say this rally ended? Maybe it was a 12% move. >> We had another significant cycle low over here was another eight or so percent move. So, these these are, >> believe it or not, they're fairly typical once you've had a market reset. And I believe we just kind of had that little reset. And so, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have these beautiful bull flag patterns and it is pointing to much higher pricing. Right? If we look at this recent rally and this pullback using Fibonacci extensions, this tells us the upside move is about 8500 in the S&P 500. So, we're looking at potentially the second leg. It's about a 10% move uh in in that space. And the NASDAQ has potential has the same chart pattern pretty much. It's got about an 18% upside move. So the market is actually has now formed a very strong u uh bullish chart pattern and everything is breaking out and just tech is kind of lagging a little bit because it was so oversold. But once the NASDAQ breaks to all-time highs, I think that could actually really get a lot of people to pile in and I think we could be entering this last euphoric phase like one big push up. I do feel in sense and you can you can see it in the stock prices for a lot of these companies in the AI space is getting volatile. volume's getting a little crazy. It is starting those are signs of weakness. But usually the market has like one big push gets everybody sucked in and and people who aren't in the markets right now who have missed the AI space when the NASDAQ I think breaks out and we see semiconductors really start to to to break and run higher here. Whoever wasn't in the AI space or whoever's not in it right now is going to get back in. And you and I have kind of um looked at these these waves before. We're going to go into kind of this euphoric phase. Let's go to the emotional chart here. We're going to probably see one more big push that is going to suck everybody in. And that's what we want to be aware of. And and just as you mentioned, like Korea, 3% of the population had a margin call. It just goes to show how crowded this space is. Like mass people are just piling into chip stocks like on leverage. They don't know what they're doing. And that is the sign of like euphoric. And so that was kind of just a shot across the bow how quickly something can blow up. I still think the US market and US investors are I think we're going to have one more push here and that's going to create that feeding frenzy where everybody's like okay forget it. AI is here to stay. Let's get in. Let's keep making money and uh that could be almost a 20% move in the NASDAQ which could be 30 40 50% in the semiconductors and that'll suck the rest of the people in. And then we need to be aware once once we see that type of price action, it'll probably feel a lot like the precious metals bubble uh bursting earlier this year. Once the euphoric gets that crazy, uh it's going to be really interesting because that is when you know the biggest moves to the upside happen. But it's also when the momentum turns, it's going to create a very significant top and turning point. And that's going to be the defining moment for most people, most traders and investors. uh because if they don't understand what's going on and they hold through it, it they could be underwater for who knows several years, a decade or longer. So, >> it seems like this S&P 500 has been perpetually moving into a euphoria cycle for several years now and it's just very difficult to find a top. Um obviously that that rule applies to any time. It's difficult generally speaking to find tops and bottoms. Most people don't do that. But when you see a market extending into what you call the euphoria phase for quite some time and for so long, do you at some point think to yourself, maybe this is just a long-term euphoria? In other words, it's it's just it's a long-term bull market that we're in, similar to what the market saw in post 2009, which was the longest bull rally in American stock market history. Potentially, the conditions are ripe for another such multi-year, multi-deade long bull rally. Yeah. So, you bring up a good point. It's interesting. It did feel like we were kind of getting into a euphoric rally uh back over here and then we had this, you know, this sharp pullback in 2025. I I feel like it's it's still ramping up. And what's what's really interesting now is more and more people are piling in to the AI space still, like it's it's still a feeding frenzy. Everybody's talking about it and and we're starting to see a ton of ETFs just pop up just around AI, just around memory stocks, just around all of that. And that's never a good sign. Like this is what happened in the precious metal space back in 2010, 2011. We saw all of these leverage gold miner ETFs and gold leveraged ETFs come out and then boom, the top burst. Usually when the whole when it becomes an easy trade and everybody knows about it and now the whole industry's created tools just to leverage it, you got to be ready for, you know, a reversal in the trend because that means everybody's caught up to it. If the if people can launch ETFs and get caught up through that's a pretty lengthy cycle, uh the play is getting a little long in the teeth. So I do feel like if we were to just, you know, let me just chart out a little bit more. I do feel like this this last move may be that that one that goes really really vertical. It could be a very strong move that happens in the next 1 to two months hits those targets and and then we could probably start to see the market become very very volatile. So I believe this is kind of that last kind of icing on the cake is now all the tools are out there for people to go out and hang themselves financially. They're going to go into these leverage plays and unfortunately they get sucked in with FOMO. they trade on emotions and unfortunately that's usually a bad decision, right? And so that's the whole reason of of having a strategy and understanding trend direction and making sure you're you're trading with the trend and when that trend breaks, you got to get out and uh that's if you don't, you're going to end up holding something that eventually could go out of favor for a long time and lose a lot of value. >> The the notion that something can a bull rally can extend. By the way, I just want to point something out to you. uh the S&P I was just checking on my screen as well since the May low right I mean suppose you have bought the May low the S&P is up 58% since the correction last uh early May 2025 or end of April 2025 to now uh two observations from me for me one it's probably difficult to beat a market that's up 58% in a single year >> y Um, and number two, there's so much emphasis placed on finding something that can beat the market and rotating into commodities or finding subsectors. And of course, there are certain things, a lot of stocks have done better than 58% in the last year. I'm not saying that doesn't happen. I'm just saying that in this kind of environment where, like you said, we're entering euphoria. Wouldn't it make sense, rationally speaking, to just place your bets on an index like the S&P 500 and forget about picking individual things that may or may not go up more than 58% in a single year. Of course, it could happen. Nvidia is up 170% I think in the same time period. >> Yeah. >> Uh but you have to be really really careful here because not everything is a up or has beaten 58% returns since May. Yeah, you you make a good point. It's it's very difficult to trade individual stocks and sectors. They they're hot one month, they fall out of bed and drop 20 30% the next month. Sectors are all over the place. Uh that's what I focus on. I focus on playing the indices. And you know, if you you can always apply leverage. It's really easy. There's like one and a half leverage, there's two leverage, three leverage ETFs. There's ways to take advantage of it. You don't need to be a superstar and pick the hottest, you know, stocks and sectors. you could just play the rising tide and if you want a little more, you know, juice to it, you apply some leverage to some of the position or all of it and you can you can jack that up. I mean, uh, that's that's the way I like like with the S&P 500, if we look at our our strategy here, this is the daily chart on the left, we had our signal back over here back in April. We moved up, we hit a short-term target, we hit a key target, moved out of it, and then, of course, we've re-entered into a position after it had a little cleansing event. We hit our first target this week and of course we've got more upside to go. And so I love playing the indices. That's I used to day trade. I used to trade sectors and individual stocks and I just found why not just ride the waves that roll through the markets. They're so much easier to identify. They're slower moving which means you can apply leverage or you can put more money to work. You don't need 50 trades or 50 individual positions. You just need one or two index plays. uh could be the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 or whatever index you like to to track. But you make a good point. You can just just know when to hold stocks and when not to. You're either in the index or you're not. That's the way I trade it. I have done this for almost 30 years and I found is the easiest way. It's the fewest trades. You can generate consistent returns and you can control how much leverage you want, right? You can there is there is a drawback to to managing risks in positions. So you do naturally underperform a a bull market because you're you're taking partial profits. You're sometimes the market you don't get into a higher price, things like this. So you will underperform a little bit or substantially in some cases uh in a runaway market if you're managing risk. But the nice thing is when the markets correct or go sideways for if the markets go sideways for years, we'll be in a position that's earning interest or benefiting from kind of that time passing. And so we can continue to grow while everybody else doesn't move. And if the market corrects and and drops in a big way, we can benefit from falling pricing. And then we can reinvest at a cycle low and get reinvolved. So you make the best point and this is the whole thing of what I do at technical traders is we know when to own stocks and when not to. we just trade simple ETFs and then individuals can jack up the leverage to whatever they want. But knowing when to own stocks allows you to even be like, hey, if we got a buy mark buy signal in the stock market, I'm going to go buy semiconductors because they all pretty much move together. So if you want, you can use these signals to go buy high beta uh ETFs or stocks uh around that those type of plays. >> Okay, let's take a look at uh your key levels for the S&P 500. Uh I like to go to the prediction markets as a guide for how or is a is a sort of a sentiment gauge on how people are thinking. So traders on Koshi right now are predicting that uh uh there's almost no chance of this the S&P 500 going south by the end of the year. If you look at this distribution of probabilities uh very small chance until you get to 8% which is 7,400 to 7600. Right now as a reference we're at 77. So right now we're at 7724 points and the uh prediction markets are telling us that uh traders are not thinking that we're going to go below that. um most of the distribution of probabilities lies between 7,600 to 7,800 which is >> uh where we're currently at um into 8,400 points and then obviously higher than that we get a smaller uh percentage and um yeah it's interesting because there isn't one particular bucket where everyone's overwhelmingly placing their bets on but uh it it does look to me like most people are bullish, moderately bullish. No one's expecting it to go to 9,000 points. Uh or a few people are, >> but for the for the most for the most part, I think people are just conservatively bullish and see this uptrend continuing with pretty much the same kind of momentum and maybe uh consolidating towards the end of the year if we're targeting 82 to 8,400 points. Does that roughly lie within your expectations, Chris? Yeah, I I I think you nailed it. I think um my upside target for the S&P 500 is about 8,555. That's actually the exact target that it's pointing to the upside. Uh that that's where we're headed now. And [clears throat] you know, recently, just as you mentioned, like where is everybody going? It's almost like everybody was in AI, big tech, the NASDAQ, and it's almost like, you know, a big party and then the cops show up and everybody scatters, right? It's it's like that happened in uh in in the AI space like suddenly price started to go down some bad news came across prices were dropping and everybody just have have gone everywhere we've got people buying kind of all most sectors and it doesn't matter what cap they are they can be mega cap they can be small micro caps all of those money is going everywhere so it's really hard to gauge like I was looking at all the different sectors yesterday and it's it's amazing that a lot of them are really messy charts there a A lot of them are up and to the right, but they're they're noisy, they're choppy, they're not clean. And it's just telling us that money is just kind of everybody's just randomly kind of going out and buying a lot of different stuff right now. They're not piling specifically into one area. Uh which is the opposite of what we've seen for the past like year, right? It's been like 100% everybody into AI and chips and things like that. >> Okay. Any sub any other sector of the S&P 500 that you think is overbought right now? um overbought. >> It doesn't have to be a sector in the S&P. Maybe we could just broaden that question to asset classes. Anything that looks a little bit overextended right now that you wouldn't touch. >> Um not to be honest. I I haven't I haven't seen one now. I haven't really dove in. There isn't anything that's standing out that I say I would steer clear of only because we've got kind of got a new new bull market or a new rally starting a new trend, right? So everything that's up, you know, has a has has a tailwind now. And so there's there's money flowing into this market. Generally, I wouldn't I wouldn't focus on stocks that were beaten up. You generally want to stick with leaders because a lot of what a lot of people will do will be like, "Okay, well this sector's been overly beaten up. I'm going to jump into this one. It's got room to go." Uh but typically if something's really beaten up when the market rallies it'll actually underperform. So you do want to definitely focus on on some of the leaders. The financials have been doing well. We've had the um the cyber security space like hack is a ETF that tracks this. It's been very explosive. It actually is showing signs. Let me go back to the daily chart because this is the weekly. It's definitely showing a little bit of signs of exhaustion. So this is making what looks to be uh an overbought market. It's it has one surge and then a sharp pullback, two surges, a sharp pullback, and it's on a three surges. And typically when we have these three surges, it once this surge ends, if it's it still may go a little bit higher, but overall usually ends with a very sharp crack to the downside and then it forms a bearish pattern and then it fizzles out. So this is the only one that's actually at the top of our band hot list as the the top performing sector and it is showing signs of volatility. It's also showing huge volume, meaning it's becoming a crowded play. People are trading it, tracking it, and it's becoming emotional. A lot of volume traded means there's a lot of emotions and a lot of attention on it. And typically, when something has a lot of attention, it usually is near a turning point. >> Mhm. Okay, let's turn to now oil. Uh, another extremely volatile asset. It has always been, but that volatility has been heightened ever since the Iran war started. and it moves on a daily basis depending on whether or not Trump and Israel attack Iran and vice versa. >> Mhm. >> Right now we're at 77 on the uh WTI. Uh huge downdraw uh since the beginning of uh August or end of July rather >> and um and I'm just wondering if if you were trading oil futures, you would look at this and say to yourself, gee, that looks like a kind of a bottoming movement here. Um, of course, we don't have to trade oil futures to care about oil. It also impacts inflation expectations which impacts where interest rates go. So, this very important commodity. I'll let you take a look here. >> Yeah. So, we initially played played the energy sector on this first kind of big run up and then and then it it's gotten very crazy and volatile with wars on, wars off like every other day. So, we have we have kind of avoided it since then because it's you're just walking through a landmine right now. Uh but you're you're right. We have we've we've seen kind of we thought things were resolved. We saw kind of the premium come all the way back out to before it really took off and then suddenly things kind of ramped back up. It came right up into resistance into this whole zone through here and now it's actually had a nice pullback. It's at an ABC correction and I find this three-wave correction to be a cleansing event. It's actually a bullish sign and it right now the chart and the Fibonacci extensions are pointing to about $100 per barrel for oil. Uh do I think this war is over? No. I think uh it's going to continue to go for a long time. And I think eventually we're just going to see oil continue to go back up and and carry these higher levels. And so this is the only thing I'm really following oil. It's like, hey, oil's up today. That means interest rates are up. That means bonds are down. like oil right now is the ultimate barometer for say for for figuring out what rates are doing and what the price of bonds are doing and that's all I'm really following and I am expecting oil to stay elevated and go higher here and I think um bonds are going to struggle because rates are probably going to want to hold up or move higher. Does it look like rates are still heading higher? I mean just from a look from a macro fundamental perspective a lot of economists are giving me the case for why bonds are going to struggle yields going to go higher like you said but from a technical perspective this is one of those other things that have been shooting up very quickly very fast. >> Yeah there there's there's no doubt the chart of of the 5year yield the 10year the 30-year they're all pointing to higher pricing and and you and I have talked about this for many many months. I'm like the chart is the charts are actually pointing to for the for the 10 year and the 30-year 8%. That's what the charts are pointing to which obviously would create uh would kill countries and businesses that that would be a financial crisis. We would see a financial reset around the world. And you know we are seeing over 5% on the 30-year yield. We've had the 30 the 30-year yield above 5% for something like 40 or 50 days in total this year. The last time we saw it holding up above the 5% mark um was back in 2007 and it was up for about 80 days in total through the year telling us there was a lot of concern going on and then we had a financial crisis. So I don't know what's going to happen here. It is showing is showing yields are going to want to go higher which obviously means bonds are going to have a haircut and you know 8% is is enough to and and collapse you know countries and and and everything. So I don't think things are going to get let allowed to go up there, but that is actually what the charts are pointing to. And if this war continues and oil gets back to 100 and stays up there and potentially gets even higher, man, that interest rate is going to want to keep inching and creeping higher. And that is going to do a lot of damage for people who hold bonds. And the TLT chart, for example, if rates go to 8%, TLT, which if I pull that up right now, it's trading around 80 bucks, somewhere in that range. is trading at 82. TLT will end up being down at about $40 if we see 8-year yield. We'll most likely see it trade all the way down here, which is a 50% haircut from where it is. So, obviously, this is that would be wreak disaster. That means people don't have any trust in what's going on in the states. They want pay be paid high interest to take on that risk to hold that debt. Uh so I mean these these are these are obviously would create a reset a massive reset and I don't think the the markets are going to let that happen or the governments but we'll we'll see because the the rates are really going to play a powerful role on things I think in the next few years. >> Okay. The the um interest rate going higher is not only going to cause a financial reset around the world. It's going to put pressure on a lot of assets including stocks, high beta stocks like tech especially and precious metals. >> Let's take a look at the precious metals. Now, a good segue. >> Um, flipping over to gold. I remember a couple of months ago the Bank of America had downgraded their end of year gold price forecast from, I think, much higher down 14% to $4,300 by the end of the year. Now, we are at the upper end of that forecast and I wonder if we're blowing past that completely right now. Yeah. So, there there's a lot going on. This is there there's a pretty major support level from back in 2025 where gold is is finding support through through this level. So, there's been a lot of people buying. Not only was it past support from last year, but it's also a whole number. It's 4,000. And so, typically, if price is above 4,000, as it sells off and comes down, investors who love the commodity are going to just say, "I like 4,000." If it gets to 4,000, I'm going to buy some more. It'll be the same when it gets to 3,000. People will say, "I I want to buy some at 3,000." And so, we've definitely had this big support level. It's It's found support. And I was telling subscribers the other day, a few days ago, saying, "Listen, get ready. We're probably going to see a big green bar in gold, silver, and miners." Uh, it's going to get you really excited, and everybody's going to say, "Hey, it's turned a corner. This is the start of the new bull market." I said, don't forget, we are technically the long-term trend is down. The other moving averages are also below that. uh this that's the definition more or less of a bare market. We've got all the key moving averages and price below the so precious metals are actually in a technical bare market and this is a rally or a bounce within a a bare market. So this could fizzle out very easily and this is the same with with silver and miners. If we do happen to get a very strong move, there's if there's some big followthrough and we really see it rally up and then start to build and hold its its value, it might actually turn a corner and then be off to the races. But right now, it's still making a series of lower highs and it's still making a series of of lower lows and that is also another definition of a downtrend. So, we're not quite there yet. Gold and silver definitely showing some signs of life, but uh this is still just a bounce. It is at the upper range that you just mentioned of the other forecast. I do believe actually gold could drift up to about 4500 and 4,500 to me is kind of this this overall range kind of like right in in this range which are previous highs, big consolidation, a big high volume spike low, another low. There's a lot of price action that pivoted through here. So, we could still see gold push up, which is going to suck more and more people into the precious metal space, but at that point is actually still a bare market trap, meaning it's getting you excited, you're getting long, and then we could see it roll over and sell off. And so, where I differ from a lot of different investors, as much as I love precious metals, I don't care where I buy back into it. I will buy it at a higher price when when it's actually in a true uptrend or I'll buy it when it's put in a bottom later in time. And the biggest thing here is when you zoom out on this chart, which I' I've talked about this with you many times before, is I don't want to um hold something that, you know, takes forever to start to break out, right? We we look at all these years like 10 year, 15 year windows where it could go dormant. And if we were to just look at this chart again, we could see gold, silver, and miners, they could still struggle and waste a lot of years here. Usually the market's going to do the opposite of what the majority are expecting to do. And I think most people are are thinking gold is is bottoming, silver's bottoming, miners right now. And so I think it's just a false rally. It's a a bare market trap at this point. But again, we just have to wait and see if it's going to get traction. >> Traction aspect is very important. And I think another word to look at it is momentum and how sustainable that momentum is. >> How would you as a technician evaluate that something goes up? Nobody knows if it's going to stay up or go down or sideways. At the end of the day, a lot of people are just guessing. But there are definite signs that could point to you consolidation or continued strength or if something has broken out and um and a floor has been reached. What are some of those signs, Chris? >> Yeah, so there there's a few things we want to look at. So, in terms of a reversal, we really want kind of two previous standout highs to be broken. We could argue this is a previous a fairly clear standout high. This is another one. And so, an impulse move or trend reversal, usually you want to see price break through one and two previous resistance levels. And once it's broken through that, then you can look and say, "Hey, this first this next pause could actually be an entry price. If it starts to run and break out, you may be able to enter and then play the second half of that move and then the trend is up and then over time it should continue to go higher. So breaking previous highs is very significant. I think the other thing to look at here are just the simple moving averages. We've got uh the when this little thin blue line that you can see down here, that's the 5-day moving average. When it is above the pink line, the 20-day, and price is above it, it's in a short-term momentum move to the upside. And it's usually a fairly clean trend. You can see we had we had a kind of crossover over here. It's been in a a downtrend trend ever since. Now they've crossed positive. So the short-term move is is actually bullish. When the 20-day gets back above the 50-day, then we can be like, hey, there's there's a nice potential momentum and some longerterm trend uh trading here that we could start to see this want to carry higher. And we'll probably over time all of these moving averages will be sloping up and we might even see the long-term moving average start to slope up. So the moving averages are just a really good way to make sure you're on the right side. And ideally you want all the moving averages sloping upwards. And you want to see a series of higher lows and higher highs. That is the definition of a downtrend. So we've got like a significant low here. Now we're pushing up. And then we'd see some type of pause and it would be a new low and then we see it go higher. That means we've got higher Whoops. We've got higher lows, we're going to have higher highs. And so when price action and time, the moving averages are just saying, "Hey, things things have shifted." Then you can start to get long and get in there. I think it's important to to see what the dollar is doing at at this point, too. Like right now, gold is at resistance. Silver's at short-term resistance. The dollar is at support. So, we need to see how these two are going to react, right? the dollar could pop and and metals could just drop right back down again because technically the dollar is in a bull market and the precious metals are in a bare market. So like that's the big picture and nobody wants to accept that but that's actually what the charts and these corrections in the metal space are showing. So uh we just you know the biggest thing is price action, right? We need to see higher highs and higher lows and we need the moving averages uh positively stacked. The 20-day above the 50-day is a good a good gauge. >> Whoa. Let's go back to the statement here. The dollar is in the bull market. Precious metals are in a bare market. So these gyrations we've seen these short-term moves upwards. These are just I guess bounces from from I guess uh bounces from corrections, but ultimately the longer term trend is still down. Is that what we're saying for gold? >> Yeah. Yeah. So like for example, gold could just continue to kind of drift and and and move its way up here, but it is actually still just a a bearish move, right? We have a we have here we have a sell-off and then a bearish drift higher. Then we have a sell-off. We have another bearish move and then we have a bigger sell-off and then it's going to drift sideways and then it could sell off. I mean, Bitcoin has done the same pattern many times. Like it's actually much more clear because it's it's done cleaner ones. But you can see it's drifted sideways. People start to get really bullish with a green up bar and then it has another green up bar and everybody's like, "Oh my god, this is the bottom for Bitcoin. Here we go." And then it drops because it's in look at the long-term moving average. It's in a bare market. Price moving averages are all layered that way and then it happens again right here. So this is like gold and silver could be like right here. We might see gold and silver drift higher for a few months and and work its way up a little bit and then eventually, you know, when everybody seems to be bullish is bare market trap, right? Sucks you in and then it starts another leg down and then it rinses and repeats. So this is the process that gold and silver are in right now and it really needs to rally up in a very strong way and hold up to a high level to confirm that hey this isn't just a drift this is actually the start of something more significant. >> Okay. Why do you say the dollar is in a bull market though? Is that because interest rates are going higher or are you looking at um a significant upward momentum here >> just based on the charts? >> Yeah. So, so if we look at the chart, you can see we've got the uh price has been going down. We had the long-term moving average going down. So, that is a bearish environment. And then we saw the dollar trade sideways for a very long time through here and it started to flatline. You can see the green moving average. And now the now the the long-term moving average is sloping up. Price is actually breaking above a lot of these highs. We actually have a series of higher highs. We got a series of higher lows. we have um you know price moving up and so when price and the moving averages are layered this way it's in a bullish environment. So you really just have to follow kind of the green moving average. It is now moving up. The dollar is down at support. It's just at a cycle low just like precious metals are actually just kind of near a cycle high right now. And so the long-term moving average for the dollar is saying hey it is going up. It has all the characteristics of a bull market. Price is there. Long-term trends are there. and gold and silver are the exact opposite. They've been falling and all the moving averages are down and they have bearish price action. So, I mean, that's that's just the reality of how I look through the market. That's my lens. That's how I gauge things. But, it's it's really simple. It doesn't take much to for me to be like, okay, I I don't want to hold precious metals right now because the dollar is in a bull market and precious metals are technically in a bare market. Silver's down like 50%. Like, that is no doubt a bare market. Um, and the problem is people get blinded by assets that they love. People love Tesla or Apple and they'll blindly hold them through 50 cent 50% corrections, right? I I don't believe in that. I I I fall in love with assets when I own them and I hope and pray and I, you know, coax them on. I'm like, "Come on, come on." And but as soon as I'm out of the trade, I could I could care less about that that asset class and I'll love it again when I get back in. So, >> um, >> yeah. >> Yeah. final topic and then we'll let you go. Chris, thank you. Great analysis. We we brought up situational awareness at the very beginning. Let's finish up on that. This is a case study, a classic case study of something blowing up when risk is not managed properly. I think is the consensus online. I think even the Bank of America president or CEO stepped in and made a comment about this and said this was excessive leverage that caused this. >> So, I think the fund was 4x leverage according to what I read. >> Yeah. And um this really shouldn't have happened if he had done what what has what what what should a $45 billion tech fund have done from a riskmanagement perspective that could have mitigated this um complete fire sale from happening. >> Yeah. Well, unfortunately the way we're emotional human beings. I mean, with $40 billion, you should have a couple analysts, a couple money managers who understand like risk and leverage. Uh, I think one of the problems with potentially hed hedge funds more specifically is they're given all kinds of money that's not theirs in a lot of cases, which means if they they play with it like it's monopoly money. They're like, and they're performancedriven. They have these huge egos. They want to outperform the market. They want to crush it. They want to make these forecasts and do really well. The problem is when you are driven by performance, greed and volatility, you just want to knock it out of the park. If you if you don't have something in like unfortunately if you have all those things, you don't you don't really care about risk because you are all about risk. That's what you want to do is swing for the fences, hit a grand slam. You know, with that kind of money, there should be some checks and balance of like, hey, you know, we're way over leverage. If the market drops 20 25%, we're pretty much gone like in a heartbeat. And these stocks, a lot of these semiconductors are literally moving 10 15% a day. So, it's it's insane that they're gambling this money like it's monopoly money. It's other hard hard-earned money from other investors and they don't they don't figure out, you know, what is reasonable, what is the volatility in the market right now, what is likely to happen, and then they just have to put it in their formula, be like, "Wow, technically in 30 days, if the market sells off like this, we're out of business." And so they should be like, "Whoa, we don't need to apply this leverage." You know, I think I look at investing a lot differently. I've blown up accounts. I've I've gone through a bankruptcy and now I look at consistency. I just want to be consistent. I want to know 5 years from now, 10 years from now. I don't care what happens in the economy. I just know I'm only going to be holding assets going up and if something is in a big bare market, we can benefit from it falling. But these people who don't have risk and position management in place and unfortunately that's the majority of traders. That's why you know everybody does everybody you know is exceptionally wealthy right now with their accounts. They're they're up leaps and bounds as you mentioned earlier. It's a massive bull market for many many years. Just buy every dip. Buy all the most volatile stuff. You're good to go. It works amazing. And sure you may have double tripled your account but eventually the market is going to correct. And if you're still holding those most volatile assets, believe it or not, those sectors and those stocks are most likely going to fall 50 to like 85% in the next financial reset. You'll be right back to where you were. I have a lot of subscribers who have been investors for like 20, 30, 40 years, and they they say the same thing. Oh, I had a good run for 10 years and I gave it all back. I need some help. Or uh it's it's the reality of it. It's just the way it works if you don't um I'm all about hitting first, second base hits over and over again, five or 10 times a year. Uh and just compounding on top of our oursel our gains versus going all in in one space and being 100% you know invested in into an asset a sector or even just an index 100% in at times uh with leverage especially is a very high risk if you don't have an exit strategy. So, I mean, these these big funds are performance-driven. Unfortunately, almost everybody's performance driven. All you got to do is, you know, say some some big returns and everybody's like, "I'm on board. I'm in. Let's do it." Right? And that's why I try not to ever give like when I'm on show with you here, I try not to give these huge crazy lofty upside levels because it's not the time. I I do think gold and silver are going to skyrocket at some point. I'm very very bullish on metals, but I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. it might not be for three or four years, maybe even longer still. So, and and we could still see them go lower. And so, if I was to just say, "Hey, I think, you know, gold's maybe bottomed here. I think it's going to like 12,000 bucks." A lot of people will just jump in. But, uh, even though I do think it will go to 12,000 at some point, I do think we're going to see another 20, 30, 40% haircut potentially in these during the next reset. And, uh, that could be years away. So anyway, >> it is tempting when you're really confident about a particular trade that you know based on your expertise or research. This is going to go up. Uh in the case of situational awareness, it's AI the guy's worked at open AI before. Um and he's, you know, he claims to have lots of expertise in this area and he's called a lot of sort of long-term trends in this space correctly. >> Um but you can be very confident and still manage risk properly. I think the point I'm trying to make, Chris, is that it's very tempting as humans, like you're right, we get carried away by emotion. If I know that I'm right, why not take leverage? I mean, why settle with only 50% when I can get 500 if I just lever up a bit? And I I I I you know, >> you you do that a few times and you and and your track record goes through the roof and you're all of a sudden you're up 437% like he is and everybody calls you a genius and you're incentivized to continue doing the same thing. Yeah. >> Um what is the kind of check and balance that you need to put on yourself to kind of guard rail a situation where okay you're levered because you've been right but let's let's protect your downside here. >> Yeah. So one of the one of the best ways to do it the problem is leverage is like not that I've ever done it but it's like crack cocaine. It's highly addicting. you pick one bottom or one hot stock or sector with leverage and it takes off and you're like that's [snorts] what I'm focusing on forever, right? And it'll it'll eventually backfire and and catch you off guard if you don't have some checks and balance, some position and risk management. One of the best ways is to have have an account a brokerage account that you have a portion of it or a separate one that is for you to go out and try you know use use leverage a size that hey if it works you're going to really move the dial on your overall wealth but it's not your whole account. My whole strategy like my ACS strategy my adaptive compounding strategy that I use at technical traders it's designed for the other portion. Hey, here's a huge chunk of your portfolio that you just want managed to consistently grow. We don't have to worry about what happens with the the president or wars or bubbles bursting. None of that stuff matters because we're actually managing the portfolio or managing the positions for people to navigate these markets. So, the best thing is to have like a large portion of your portfolio, you know, done in a way that it's consistent and it's going to protect you and then you can go swing for the fences somewhere else so you can get that fixed. But the problem is people put in their whole accounts like we recently had some people uh earlier this year they were like almost 100% in precious metals and miners and of course earlier this year uh I was like you know we're getting out. We got out of like gold at 51, we got out of silver at 113. I was like, "Exit. I am selling everything in precious metals. Like the capitulation, this is it." And we exited and that person sold. And he goes he goes, "I made more money in my entire life like in that last year just moving up all compounded." And he's like so happy that he's exited and and cashed out. And now he's like, "I know it was a gamble." He says, "It was the scariest yet fun ride of my life, but I do not want to do something like that again without some control." cuz he was just blindly into it uh just because he was in love and stacking and it works out well. But you do need an exit strategy at some point. >> I've I've seen so many people and I know people from my own personal life uh they're up on a stock 67% or 70%. And then friends are telling him, "Okay, it's time to get out." He says, "No, no, no. It's going to go go up more." Maybe he's right. Maybe fundamentally speaking, that stock had more upside. But it it it's just do you put rules on yourself to say, "Okay, if something moved up in a certain way or if it's up 50%, I don't care if it's got another 300% upside, I'm taking profits." I mean, how do you And by the way, that particular person, I remember this very well. This was like more than 10 years ago. And the stock came crashing down shortly after. He lost all his gains. So um yeah. >> Yeah, there's a lesson there. Well, I mean, I've I've done most styles of trading there is. And day trading was was one I did for quite some time, and I have learned that every day, every hour, there is a new opportunity in this market, right? And and so, you don't have to worry. A lot of people feel like if they don't catch this move, especially if it's in an asset they like, like, if I don't catch this, I might not find anything for years. I'm like, well, there's actually there are lots of opportunities. It's just people seem to get blinded with just what they want to watch. Uh, so there's always going to be more opportunities. And and I've learned I've seen lots of stuff obviously rip higher and make ridiculous returns and we inch our way up. Our portfolio slowly grows. I I'm comfortable with that now. I' I've just realized you know what certain accounts I trade different ways and um you just have to accept it to some point. I mean I remember I had this this uh mining stock. This was many many years ago and uh it it it crashed down. became worthless and uh and then suddenly it turned into a marijuana stock and I just pulled it up on my RBC account. I was like, "Holy crap." Like, you know, $56,000 came out of nowhere. And so I remember telling my wife, I said, "Look at we got this stock. It it went from it's a field that they supposedly have metal in the ground and now they have their marijuana site or plan to build." And I said, "What should we do?" And she's like, "Keep it." She's like, "Let's let it keep going." And it went all the way to zero and then delisted and gone. And so I just follow my own strategy. I I my gut knows when we need to be locking in partial profits. The charts tell me most of that. And um so I just follow my own strategy. Everybody's got their own strategy, their own time frame. I'm really focusing on managing large portfolios like your life savings account so that it protects your time so you're not wasting years not making anything or that you're not in bad assets and that it's not going to affect your lifestyle because nobody wants to downgrade. And the next financial reset whenever it happens is going to do that. It's going to be a major turning point for a lot of people and it's not fun going backwards. >> Okay, Chris. Well, uh, let's follow up more and, uh, I want to talk more about trading strategies in a bit more detail, but, uh, today is a good market recap on everything that's been happening in the last couple weeks. So, thank you so much. Let's put the link to your website down below and, uh, people can follow you there. What can we learn from uh going to your um website? >> Yeah, at the technicalraders.com, I I do videos kind of like what you and I are doing. I'll do a lot of drawing and show what's unfolding on different time frames. I share exactly what I'm trading in my portfolio. Of course, I I trade ETFs. So, more or less, we are trading and navigating these markets together. And I put out trades that I'm actually putting on. I don't dish out trades just for excitement and and fastmoving stuff. I look for slow, boring, consistent trades. and we move in and out of those 5 to 12 times a year. Uh that's just kind of how we manage our portfolio. And um yeah, that's it. You you kind of learn how the markets work. I help keep keep a level head when there's uh FOMO or panic selling. I'll help just let you see what's happening and why and how it's actually a good thing. It's it gives us clear turning points in the markets. But that's about it. You just kind of we we invest together. >> Okay, good. Thanks so much, Chris. Appreciate your time. >> Thanks, David. Take care. And thanks for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe. And please do follow Chris the link down below. And please use my code Lynn L I N when you sign up to Koshi. Remember, new users who use my code Lynn can get up to $500 if you use and trade up to $25.