It is Netflix. Netflix it's the most attractive riskreward in the market for the next 3 years in my opinion.
Contexto
"So this ultimately the stock I picked you told me $1.1 million I got to invest it tomorrow and I got to keep it in that stock can't sell it for the next three years. It is Netflix. Netflix it's the most attractive riskreward in the market for the next 3 years in my opinion."
I've been buying a lot of shares in the stock and I'm going to continue to buy a lot of shares in the stock, right?
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"Yet, of all the stocks here, this one has the most if it goes right, which I think it's going to go right. I hope it goes right because I've been buying a lot of shares in the stock and I'm going to continue to buy a lot of shares in the stock, right?"
Transcrição Completa
You got to be flipping my flapjacks, ladies and gentlemen. It is sold. My old house is officially sold. We got it done. We got it done. If you're wondering why the heck I'm recording from my bedroom right now, the reason I'm recording from my bedroom is they got massive saws right next to my office right now. And uh they're building some very large projects on the side of my house right now. And I didn't want you guys to have to hear the whole video. So that's why I'm in the bedroom here today. We got more money to invest, baby. We got a lot more money to invest. Okay, so public count here today, new all-time highs. Congratulations to everybody out there hitting all-time highs in your portfolio. Amazing to see. Public count wants 5 million. It's just a question of when are we going to hit it? Are we going to hit it here in the next few weeks, the next few months, or are we going to have to wait all the way till next year? But we want $5 million. A lot of stocks making big moves. Meta up $16,000 here today. AMD up$10,000. Palanteer up 7,500. Netflix up 7,400. Uh we had Salesforce up 7,100. We had Celsius up 6,700. Celsius the wealthiest. We're trying to we're trying to manifest it. Nike $3,400 up. Man, that one's just down slightly, huh? We're just down slightly on Nike, eh? Uh service now up 3,200 bucks. And then SoFi with a $3,200 move there. So, a lot of big upward moves. Congrats to everybody out there. Okay, five core subjects we're going to get into in this video here today. One is I want to give you some good news for the market. I have some very good news regarding the stock market and and those sorts of things. Okay, number two, shortterm. Okay, shortterm, I said no to an opportunity, a big money-making opportunity. I want to talk about why I did that. What is the opportunity? Is there a lot more money to be made there? We'll speak about that in this video. Okay, third subject up here. I just got $1.1 million wired to my account this morning. If you forced me to put all one $1.1 million into one stock and hold it there for the next three years and I could not sell it, has to be in an individual stock. I'm going to share exactly what stock I would pick in this video here today as well as some honorable mentions. Okay, I thought that that could be an interesting uh segment to do on today's video. Fourth subject, we'll get into a stock that's headed to $1,000 plus. And number five, we'll talk about am I bullish on the fall time? Everybody's starting to focus on the fall. Uh kids are kind getting back to school around the country now at this point in time and everybody's starting to look toward the fall time and starting to try to make predictions and those sorts of things. I'll let you know am I bullish on this fall for the market or am I bearish. Okay, I appreciate you all for joining me as always. I hope there's one thing and one thing you can do for me and that's smash that like button. Hit that little thumbs up icon. I'm recording this video from my bedroom. I could have said, you know what, we're just not recording a video here today. They got the saws next to my office and I'm not doing it. But I said, you know what? We're going to improvise. will make a video from my bedroom. I forgot to make a video from the bedroom. Okay, so I appreciate you all for being here. It's not that type of video that you might think from the bedroom. Okay. Uh, additionally, if you're looking to join my private group, there'll be the pinned comment down there here today. We have over 200 members in there that have seven figures plus invested. We have over 500 members with six figures plus invested. And we have countless members at 8 figures plus invested now at this point in time. So, if you want to join a serious group of investors, like-minded folks that are looking to build their wealth, you can join us with the pin comment down there. You also get access to all my course curriculums, access the private Discord chat, access to thousandx.com, a bunch of different things. It's the real deal. Holyfield will be the pinned comment down there today. Okay. Okay. So, let's get into some good news for the market. Listen, wholesale costs for goods and services were flat in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday in the latest positive sign for inflation, the PPI, producer price index, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was unchanged for the month below the 2% Dow Jones consensus estimate after falling.1% in June. The the June figure was revised from previously reported decline of.3%. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose2% against a forecast of.3% gain. And I'll explain why this matters significantly in just a moment here. The core PPI excluding trade services increased point4% on an annual basis. The headline PPI increased 4.7% uh for all all items index and 4.2% for core according to adjusted figures. The report follows several other indicators telling a similar story. the ramp up in inflation earlier this year fueled by obviously the Iran situation uh Trump's tariffs and the rate of price increases is beginning to ease right and so now keep in mind as my dad would always say the government just makes up these numbers okay uh so you know we're not going to get into that debate here today but the moral of the story is here the numbers a government puts out the Federal Reserve makes moves based upon these government numbers so whether you think they're made up or whether you think they're accurate or whether you think there's something in between. Right? The moral of the story is here if these numbers are ugly, the Fed has a much higher probability of raising interest rates. If these numbers look better, um, as in, you know, lower inflation, the Federal Reserve keeping rates steady or maybe even lowering rates goes up significantly. And also how this affects treasuries matters significantly. And whether people are looking to buy treasuries or if they're looking to put money in the market, that matters significantly as well in this whole game. Okay. And so if we look here, uh, treasuries are all headed down now at this point in time. And this is not just something that just started today. This is like a several week trend. They all topped recently a few weeks ago and they're all trending down. So this is a two-year Treasury uh you know one of the most important treasuries people look at. This is a and clearly in a downtrend now at this point in time. The 10-year also super important especially for mortgage rates uh that has peaked and is trending down. Now the six-month Treasury, so even if you look at short-term treasuries like 6 months, one month, those sorts of things, they're all trending down as well. Okay. And so this is actually something you want to see if you're more bullish on the market. You want to see treasuries being lowered. You want to see inflation fears subside. This is all good news overall. Now there's a incredible amount of money in money market funds and we're talking about about around 8 trillion roughly. And so there's a thought process here that if treasuries you go down, if inflation fears, remember what is the main thing people have been scared about the last several years. The number one thing most people if you were scared about the stock market has been one thing that you've been scared of the last several years. What is it? Inflation. That has been the scary thing, right? No different than coming out of the great financial crisis of08, right? The thing that scared people for the next several years was are we going to have another recession, double dip recession, right? And so the bad the big bad boogeyman is inflation the last several years. And that's the thing everybody's worried about and they're like is it going to get bad again? Is it going to spike up again? There there's all these fears around that, right? And so if you can decrease all those fears, then people feel more comfortable investing in the market. If treasuries are yielding less, people are less incentivized to go put their money in treasuries and they're more incentivized to, you know what, go buy stocks with that money, right? And so, look at a situation like this, right? $1.1 million gets wired to me this morning. I already had like $400,000 roughly in that particular checking account. So, let's say I move all that money from that checking account into a treasury, right? The one year recently, as of a couple weeks ago, was yielding like 4%. I could make $60,000 a year risk-free, right? Risk- free with that money and still have the money at the end of the pie, right? And so the way to think about it is people get more lazy when it comes to investing, the more they can get in regards to treasuries. So now think about it. Let's imagine the one year was yielding 8%. That would be an insane number, but let's say that was the situation. Well, a lot of people wouldn't even invest in the market if it was yielding 8% because they'd be like, I can get risk-f free and on a number like $1.5 million, that's $120,000 a year to make risk-free. People be like, I'm not put money in the market, right? And so now, let's imagine it was 12%. Now, we're talking about I can make $180,000 a year just on that cash balance there if I had in a one-year Treasury, right? And so the higher that number is, the more lazy people get and say, you know what, I don't need to research stocks. I don't need to invest in the market. I don't need to pick the Q's or the S&P 500. I just need to put money in treasuries and get easy money, right? And so the more this number goes down, it falls in as 3%. People start looking like, gosh, I'm only getting this. And then they start looking at those stock market returns, they're like, I could be making this. And so the wider that gap is, the the better it is for folks out there. And keep in mind, you know, what you could get on treasuries was so low, it was like 2 3% for years and years and years. So when you started spiking up to four and 5%. That got people so interested cuz like oh my gosh, like I could make 4% 4 and a half% 5% plus on my money. Whoa. Like we hadn't seen that at least in my adult lifetime which started in 2008, right? Treasuries are always yield and crap. And so this is just kind of something to kind of think about. And so this is a more bullish trend for the market. If we can get treasuries down, inflation fears down, and we can get a situation where people feel more comfortable investing in the market, and you get more and more of this big dog money that's just sitting over here doing not a lot, right? And get that money into the market. So, this is something to keep in mind there. Okay? All righty. Next up here, let's talk about a short-term opportunity in the market I said no to. Okay? And let me explain this. Let me explain why. And let me explain also if I think this has more upside. Okay? Listen, there's a stock, it's named Micron, right? One of the big memory chip companies. All these memory chip companies have been getting hit the last couple months, right? They all peaked a couple months ago and they all been getting hit. And so M MU, I was looking at the stock recently. It's down 30% from highs. Now, if there's one thing you know about MU, you know, there's a cyclical company, but you know they're going to be making fortunes of money in the next few years, right? And so the stock got hit so hard recently that I started even getting interested in potentially making a short-term move regarding MU, right? And so I was kind of thinking about it from perspective of like the stock was down, you know, in the high 700s, even in, you know, $800 or so. And I was looking and I'm like, my gosh, like there's a I thought there's a decent probability the stock goes to a,000 plus. And even a decent probability it breaks its all-time high, which is in the 1,200s, right, over the next few months. And so I'm kind of looking at this one is from a level of interest of like gosh man I think there could be some short-term money there right and since the bottom here just you know we this is from the bottom this is just starting in August right which we're only a few trading days into August today's August 13th so how many trading days has there been in the month so far eight or whatever right the stock's already up 18% but the thing I was looking at is MUU MU is a leverage play on MU stock and so that's already yielded 37% this month. 37. You know, people usually hope to make 37% over a 2 or threeear span in the market. When you can make 37% in, you know, uh, eight trading days or whatever it's been so far this month, that's pretty insane. And so, this was one I was strongly considering, but at the end of the day, I decided not to do it. Why did I decide not to do it? Right? The reason I decided not to do it is not because I was like, "Oh, I'm afraid I might lose money." because that's always the situation on the market. You might lose money, right? Like you put your chips on the table and and you plan to win, right? But at the end of the day, if I look at the public account, the public account regarding all the big money I've made in the public account, it's all been built on long-term quality companies and not built on short-term decisions, right? it. And if I think about a lot of times the public account since I started this getting this rolling in 2018, the times the public accounts really been hurt is when I try to think about like how could I make like a shortcut, right? How could I make some money real quick, right? And and that usually ends up coming back to bite me when I just keep it simple and I just like say here's a company. I ran projections on it. I think this company has a lot of long-term upside. More than likely, it ends up turning out great for me. But when I try to do a lot of like shortcuts, it ends up coming back to bite me. And so that's why I decided not to do it, I'm like, I think MU probably bounces pretty hard, but at the end of the day, like I just know me and I know what comes back to bite me. And you guys know where I live. I live in Vegas, right? I look my new house overlooks a strip. It's beautiful. And I look down that strip and at the end of the day, when I start treating the stock market like it's a casino, it starts treating me like I'm a player at the casino. And even if let's say the muou trade went way great I made 50% in a month or something like that right like you know it kind of gets addicting like gosh man 50% in a month where's the next one where's the next one right and and and you just start looking at the stock market from a flawed angle in my opinion and it sets you up for long-term losses trying to do these shortcuts and these short-term plays about because at the end of the Hey, you know, MU didn't have to bounce and MU doesn't have to bounce from here, right? It might it might go to a,000 plus. It might go to 1,200 plus. Like I thought there's a decent probability it could, but it doesn't mean it has to. Could be some bad news that comes out this or that and you know, next thing you know, or big fears about memory topping next year. And so at the end of the day, that's just a gamble decision. That's just a short-term gamble decision about I think this is going to happen. And I can have opinions on this is going to happen or this isn't going to happen. But at the end of the day, I don't want to place bets on a thought process of like this stock might go up or this stock might go down in the short term or something like that. Like it's just, you know, unless it's from like a hedge perspective like I need to hedge my portfolio outside of that, it's just not interesting. And so I talked to a friend about this and you know, my interest in doing this, talked to him about it a week or two ago, right? And he even text me today. He says, you know, are you an MU? And I said negative. Decided not not to do any short-term gamles like that. I do so much better just sticking to buying companies I love for the long term. As they say, keep it simple stupid. More tricky I would try and get, the worse I would do. Yeah. And I feel like that's just how it is, man. Like if I try to get tricky in the market, do it's just comes back to bite me, man. And so that's me. And so, you know, I think you can take from that what you will, uh, which is stay focused on the long term. You know, there's so much money to be made in this game if you just stick to the long term. Don't get greedy with it. Don't get greedy with it. Find the long-term opportunities and sell those opportunities when not because it went up a lot, but because, hey, you know what? This doesn't have a very good riskreward anymore because I think the stock's going to this price. I ran my projections on it, right? I teach you all about how to run projections on companies and all that stuff in the private group. and we have the software for you to utilize 30,000x.com that play the game that way, man. The other way is just, you know, then we're just gambling. You know, we don't want to gamble. We want to make investment decisions. There's a big difference between investment decisions and gambling decisions in this game. Okay. All righty. Next up here, let's go ahead and talk about $1.1 million. You force me to buy one stock for the next three years. And keep in mind, this is not something I would do like, oh, one 1.1 million is going to stock tomorrow. But let's say you force me. Got to do it. Jeremy, what stock do I pick for the next three years? And I can't sell it, but I sell it three years from today. Okay. Well, let me go through my honorable mentions. Stocks that were real close to me picking and then I'll tell you the exact stock. Okay. Meta. Meta is an honorable mention here. Honorable mention. I am not bullish on the short term of Meta. You know, I've been consistent on that since the beginning of this year. Once I got those capex numbers, I was like, uhoh, no bueno. They took those capex numbers so insane. Zuckerberg took them up so high, I was like, I am not bullish on this stock in the short term, right? But I'm very bullish on Meta over the long term. I believe Meta long-term is a $1,000, $2,000 stock, right? And so this is definitely a company that's a great company. They have a spending problem. It's not getting better. It's going to likely get worse before it gets better. And so, but at the end of the day, I'm very bullish on this company long term. So, it's it's definitely deserves to be an honorable mention here. Next honorable mention. This this one has the most upside potential in my opinion over the next three years. I still wasn't the one I picked, but it's an honorable mention. Celsius Holdings, CE LH on this one. Yet, of all the stocks here, this one has the most if it goes right, which I think it's going to go right. I hope it goes right because I've been buying a lot of shares in the stock and I'm going to continue to buy a lot of shares in the stock, right? This one has a potential to like go to, you know, $75 a share, $100 a share over the next three years and make investors incredible gains. Obviously, it's a stock you can buy in the 20s today, right? The reason I didn't pick it is I'm like I was thinking about like gosh, $1.1 million, that's a lot of money to put all in one stock and lock it up for three years. And I was like there is risk like what happens if if they completely damage their Celsius brand in some substantial way, right? Um that would be bad. But I I think the company is safer than a lot of people realize because they own Celsius and they own Alani and they own Rockstar. I think the company's actually safer than the people assume because let's say let's say they did something to really damage the Celsius brand. Well, they still got Alani and Rockstar. at least they could put money and investment behind those brands. That would suck. They would not be good for the company, but it's not like it's a death blow like it would have been years ago when all they had to fall back on was a Celsius brand. Let's say they did something to completely ruin the Alani brand, right? And like no one wants to buy Alani. Okay, they still have like, you know, ways to grow the business outside of just the Alani brand, right? And so that's kind of way I think about it. They also have good balance sheet, good income statement. Um they should have much improving margin. So company has incredible upside, but it wasn't the one I picked just because I was like, there is still brand risk there. And so it was close, man. Really, really close. Next one, honorable mention, American Express. This one just consistent, great company. This one's hard to find a risk. The only risk I could really think in regards to American Express is the only risk is a recession, a big recession, right, where even the rich get hurt because a lot of American Express customer base is very high credit scores, high incomes, high wealth. And so, yeah, if that happened, uh, American Express would not be good. But, you know, the thing is about that scenario, if that happens that, you know, almost everybody gets hurt in that environment, right? But this one didn't pick because there is a stock I think has more upside than that than American Express. But it's definitely an honorable mention. Uh, next honorable mention here is Amazon AMZN. This one I absolutely love between the e-commerce side, AWS side, which is accelerating rapidly right now in regards to growth rates, and then they got their ads business and they got a bunch of other businesses, but those three are the cores, right? And so this one's definitely an honorable mention. The only thing the only thing I don't like about Amazon is the massive massive spend and it's not going away and they're going to have big depreciation on these chips coming over the next several years. And so that's going to hold back earnings per share quite substantially. And I don't think people have done the math around this yet. And they're not the only ones, by the way. Everybody's getting hit by this. Meta's already starting to get hit by it. It's going to get hit a lot worse. Google, Microsoft, all these companies, right? But um yeah, Amazon, I mean, at the end of the day, is Amazon a money maker over the next three years? Yes. But man, their capex is out of control right now. And and it's it's going to get worse likely next year. They're going to probably take their capex numbers even up a lot more. And um the exciting part is wow, look at the AWS growth. But I mean that that that growth comes at a big cost. And we're talking a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars. So do keep that in mind. So this ultimately the stock I picked you told me $1.1 million I got to invest it tomorrow and I got to keep it in that stock can't sell it for the next three years. It is Netflix. Netflix it's the most attractive riskreward in the market for the next 3 years in my opinion. This one you don't have the out of control capex that you have to worry about with a stock like a Meta or an Amazon. It is big potential upside over the next few years. Forward P on this one is 21. It's a recurring revenue stream business model. So it's like the ultimate SAS play, right? But the difference is between this and the traditional SAS plays like the Service Now and Salesforce and Adobe and all those companies is those companies are getting worried about being disrupted. Who's disrupting Netflix? No one. It's the same old school competitors. Their competitors are weaker than I've ever seen them in regards to their debt loads. And so Netflix just remains the one that is the shining star in content. And um they have multiple growth levers adding more subscribers over time, right? They can always go up in price from time to time on different plans. International expansion. The ads business is still a baby that has exponential growth over the next 5 10 years. And so Netflix is just Yeah, that one's the one for the next three years. I I love that stock. And so said $1.1 million, next three years, can't sell it. That's the one I'm picking. The chances I lose money on Netflix over the next three years, insanely low probability, right? And the chances I double up my money I think are actually pretty high. The chances I make 50% or more on my money extremely high in my opinion and still even a double up is a I think a decent probability uh because their business model. So yeah, that's the one I would pick. All right. Next up here, let's talk about a stock headed to $1,000 and then we'll talk about am I bullish on the fall time for the stock market. Okay, listen. You should already know what stock it is. Like, you know, we're talking about a stock going to $1,000 plus. Come on. You got to know, baby. You got to know what it is. It is AMD. Now, I thought it'd be important for me to talk about AMD and talk about the longer term opportunity here. And the reason being is last week, right, earnings came out and the report was a disappointment, right? And it's a crazy to be a disappointment because they beat on everything you could imagine including the guidance. It's just we were looking for the shock and awe quarter and we didn't get it right. Specifically with the guide like you know the guide came in 13 billion midpoint analysts were at 12.5. We were really hoping for 14 plus if not 15 just come out with a huge number. And by the way, they're probably going to end up doing, I would say, more in that 14 to$15 billion area when it's all said and done, but they didn't guide for it. Lisa Sue, in my opinion, sandbagged it. And so, you know, their high end of the range was like 13.3. And so, it's just kind of like we we really wanted to see that shock and awe, a 14 billion or 15 billion number, and then come in and beat that because that's what Nvidia did a few years ago. Like, they would come in with these shock and all guides and then still beat it. And so I was like, dang, man. And so I thought it would be important to just kind of keep an eye on the prize here regarding AMD and why this stock is still headed to $1,000 plus, right? So here are my projections for AMD over the next few years. Um, if we look at my bullcase, right? My bull case has AMD in the next few years going to a $1,500 to $2,000 stock in the next few years. So that's significant share price growth. Okay, significant. Now, if we look at my base case, just a fancy way of saying what I actually expect for the stock. I have the stock over the next few years going to somewhere between the $1,000 and $1,200 range, right? So, we got significant and I mean significant upside ahead in AMD over the next few years. And it's important we don't get lost in the quarterly results and like, oh, I you know, because at the end of the day, we're talking about like a billion dollar difference, right? Like we if if the number would have been 14 billion they had posted we would have probably been 14 or 14.5 billion right we have been talking about oh it's a shock and a quarter oh my gosh so exciting right banger but it was about a you know they came in at 13 no one's excited about 13 it was really 14 or 14.5 or 15 people would have gotten gone crazy for it's a one to$1.5 billion difference it's not you know it's not like oh my gosh like the AMD store is dead. You know, it's not how it works. And so, it's important we kind of keep an eye on the prize in regards to AMD. And the other thing to keep in mind here with AMD, right, I have AMD going to a,000 plus over the next few years, but I I'm I'm still sticking with this. I would not be surprised if AMD goes $1,000 plus in the short term. In the short term, meaning in the next year. And the reason being is you're in a crazy phase for AMD of accelerating growth rates. This is what analysts are expecting for revenue growth by quarter. Right? By the way, analysts are basically where Lisa Sue's midpoint is. She's going to come in and smash that number. Right? It's just a question of how much is she going to come in with. But they have revenue growth of 40% the next quarter. The following quarter 56% then 73% then 77% and then 78%. Right? So that's five more quarters of accelerating growth rates. And like I haven't lost confidence that she's going to come in with some shock and a right like she didn't come away with it this quarter, but I think in this next five quarters she's going to have a quarter or two that's going to blow knock everybody's socks off. But what what did AMD just post? That's a crazy number, right? And so don't be surprised if $1,000 plus happens in the next year. No. Is that does that mean I'm going to place any short-term bets on it? Absolutely not. I think AMD there's a decent probability and when I say decent probability I think there's like a 60% probability AMD goes to a th00and plus in the next 12 months even though my projections don't say that right cuz my projections work work based upon like a practical stock market but the stock market in the shortterm periods is not practical so although I have AMD going to a thousand plus over the next several years the stock market works differently like if if the the revenue guide was 14 or 15 billion. AMD today would probably be 650. Think about that for a moment. And by the end of this year, it'd probably be over 800, right? And so, and is that practical because of a 1 billion or $2 billion difference in one quarter revenue? It's not really practical, but that's how the stock market works. It works on, you know, how much you crushing the numbers, how much better things are worse things are than we expected. So the stock market is not a practical place in the short term. It's a practical place over the long term. But that's why even though my projections have AMD going to a thousand over the next several years, don't be surprised if you see AMD at a th00and plus in the next 12 months. Right. All right. Next up here, let's talk about if I bullish on the stock market come this fall cuz now you know we're kind of getting to mid August. Kids are back in school. People are starting to focus on the fall time and kind of thinking about, you know, football's going to be back. It's all the fall vibes. Spirit Halloween stores are opening across the country. Oh, baby. Okay, so now everybody's eyeballs are starting to go toward the fall time and like how's the stock market going to do in the fall can be crazy for the stock market? I mean, really, really crazy. Even leading into the fall, the stock market can be crazy. Okay listen. Big, you know, I have my opinions on where the stock market's going to do this fall, but keep in mind, I'm not going to place any bets or not bets based upon what I think's going to happen over this fall. So, I'm about to share my opinions what's going to happen, but you're not going to see me say, "Oh my gosh, I'm going to stop buying because I think this is going to happen or, you know, I'm going to buy extra heavy because I think no, I I don't play those games." I have opinions and reasoning why this might happen, but at the end of the day, you're going to see me do what? I'm going to consistently buy stocks in the public account, in the Patreon portfolio, in my private portfolios every Friday like clockwork. Keep it simple, stupid. you know, like that's just that's the way it is and that's how we make a lot of money in this game, right? And you're going to see me buy a lot of great companies, right? But what's my opinion? So, first off, oil continues to trend down, right? That baby way back in the springtime. We had out of control inflation worries, right? Um in the springtime and a lot of people were worried about what that meant for inflation numbers in the summer and if that the really ugly rates were going to have to be raised and all those sorts of things. Okay, the outofcontrol inflation worries are dead now at this point in time. Doesn't mean inflation's dead, but in terms of people thought like we're going to have runaway inflation kind of like we had back in 2022, right? And it's just like we don't have the same ingredients to have that happen. We don't have the stimulus money. We don't have the Fed funds rate near zero. You know, it's a whole different environment. You don't have the economy reopening. And so this fascination or this fear that people had back in the springtime that oh my gosh inflation is going to go completely out of control and the Fed's going to have to go crazy with rates and rates. I'm just like you guys are you don't have the same ingredients. And it's like if you don't have the ingredients to make a chocolate cake and instead you got the ingredients to make spaghetti and meatballs. Uh good luck making your chocolate cake with the spaghetti and meatballs ingredients. It just doesn't work right. And so the same thing with a situation like inflation or recessions, you need a certain amount of ingredients to have a real big recession. You need a certain amount of ingredients, certain type of ingredients to have out of control inflation. If you don't have the right ingredients, you can't make it. Okay? You can't make it. And I think that's what people have have totally missed here. You've got to have a bunch of these different things all going at once to have a certain situation happen, right? No. Listen, inflation, in my opinion, is going to continue to tame over the next 3 months. That does not mean it's like, oh, there's no inflation in the economy. No, there's going to continue to be inflation as there is every year, right? But the inflation numbers will continue to tame over the next 3 months, which means the chances there's going to be rate cuts next year goes up substantially. And the odds of that in when the odds of rate cuts go up substantially and it's not because all the economy is doomed or something like that. It's because lower inflation numbers and readings, right? that ends up affecting the stock market very positively. People feel more comfortable. So, as of right now, the markets and major forecasters generally do not expect the Federal Reserve interest rate to to cut until really like the second half of 2027, right? But keep in mind, that can change quick. And next thing you know, if inflation numbers are a little more tame over the next several months, you will start to see people even make some predictions about cuts in the first half of 2027. And so it's fascinating because literally just a month or two ago people were talking about rate hikes. Now you get the new government data which once again we can debate if it's BS or not, right? But you get that data and now the Fed looks at that, you know, I don't think we should probably hike, right? And so now that's kind of going off the table and now you got, you know, cuts will come on the table, right? And so look at this. This was, you know, a Fed rate hike in 2026. And look at how that has already started to tank heavily. Like we were up to almost at the peak there just a few weeks ago, people were thinking like an 80% probability the Fed was going to hike rates in 2026. Now it's down to about a coin flip. And keep in mind that's probably going to go lower. And next thing you know, all it'll be like, oh, we think there's like a 30% chance and then a 20% chance. And then it's like, oh, they're not going to hike it all in 2026. And it happens like that, man. Like look at this. This is just in the past few weeks. You went from almost an 80% probability down to a coin flip and that number is probably going lower, right? So that's something to keep in mind there, right? So the way I look at this is the late fall time in the early winter time, I think you're going to get worries to come in the market, right? But this is more late fall, early winter because you're not going to have to come to grips with this until like February 2027. But you're going to have capex anxiety that will hit the market uh in the late fall time and early winter time in my opinion. And so the capex anxiety, what is that? That is, oh my gosh, how much are Meta going to spend? How much is Amazon going to spend? Google, are they going to take these numbers up way higher? and how negative are the free cash flows going to go with these companies right? That's going to be a worry. But on the flip side, you're also going to have people worried about Nvidia, AMD, the memory stocks, because it's like, okay, what if these companies don't up their capex very much? And so, I think you're just going to have a lot of anxiety and worry about not only semiconductors, but also all the hyperscalers as well and all these companies spending fortunes of money on all this stuff. So, and then if if let's say at that time maybe some hype dies down around Anthropic, that one's had the crazy hype over the last several months. Let's say some hype dies there down a bit. Let's say Open AI hype dies down a bit as well, which that one hype has already died down significantly. Let's say it dies down even more. Oo, that would lead to more fears and more worries around that. And so, I think that's something the market has to come to grips with. But that's one of those situations we'll cross that bridge when we get to that bridge. Right. For right now, short-term traders aren't worried about February 2027 and what the capex numbers are for for for the momentum for the ALOS. That seems like a 100red years from now. That's like way out there. So when you get closer to February 2027, that's when you're going to start to have some worries come in, right? which once again I think you start to get the early signs of that late fall time, early winter time, at least in my personal opinion regarding that. So for right now though, it's party on. It's party on till we get there cuz you got a situation where the Fed less worries around that, right? Uh we know the earnings picture is very strong, inflation fears, at least based upon the government numbers dying down a bit and uh economy chugs along and so for right now it's it's party on, right? And there's a lot of positive momentum from a lot of people that are really important in the market. And so, party on for now and we'll deal with the the issues when when we get there, right? And let's say the party doesn't go on, right? Let's say the market gets weak in September, October, because you never know. September, October can be crazy. That's fine. I got a lot of money ready to to rock and roll if we get a little craziness. If not, we're going to make a lot of money. You see the public count $5 million. And I hope you guys hit some all-time highs and new all-time highs and more all-time highs. Okay, I appreciate you for joining me as always. Thank you so much for being here coming from my bedroom here today. Okay, uh private group, you want to apply to join there. That will be the pinned comment down there and join us and we will send you your steel membership cards. Once you join us in there, we'll send you a private group card. Send you your thousandx card and then if you join us on a lifetime basis, we'll send you a black card which is a lifetime membership card as well. Get access to all my course curriculums, access to private Discord chat, the community, which is unbelievable. See the moves I'm making, exclusive content, thousandx.com. I I mean, this is just a banger. Okay, that will be pinned comment down there. Much love and have a great
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