Super Investors Are Buying Again — 7 Stocks Ranked
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Entrada é o preço de fechamento do ativo na data de publicação. Atual é o último fechamento registrado.
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Entrada $75,95 15 ago 2026Atual $75,95 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
four very different managers independently put fresh money into Uber, including one investor who increased his position by more than 60%.
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Entrada $78,16 15 ago 2026Atual $78,16 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
He opened new positions in Visa, Mascard, SMB Global and Netflix while also adding to Uber Meta restaurant brands as well as Microsoft.
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Entrada $77,64 15 ago 2026Atual $77,64 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
He opened new positions in Visa, Mascard, SMB Global and Netflix while also adding to Uber Meta restaurant brands as well as Microsoft.
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Entrada $231,67 15 ago 2026Atual $231,67 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
He also bought Boeing, American Airlines, Corewave, Broadcom and SpaceX.
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Entrada $14,83 15 ago 2026Atual $14,83 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
He also bought Boeing, American Airlines, Corewave, Broadcom and SpaceX.
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Entrada $105,26 15 ago 2026Atual $105,26 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
He also bought Boeing, American Airlines, Corewave, Broadcom and SpaceX.
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Entrada $392,99 15 ago 2026Atual $392,99 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
He also bought Boeing, American Airlines, Corewave, Broadcom and SpaceX.
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Entrada $971,66 15 ago 2026Atual $971,66 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
while he reduced Micron, AMD, Alibaba and Qualcomm while exing several other tech and China positions.
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Entrada $514,39 15 ago 2026Atual $514,39 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
while he reduced Micron, AMD, Alibaba and Qualcomm while exing several other tech and China positions.
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Entrada $123,81 15 ago 2026Atual $123,81 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
while he reduced Micron, AMD, Alibaba and Qualcomm while exing several other tech and China positions.
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Entrada $165,79 15 ago 2026Atual $165,79 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
while he reduced Micron, AMD, Alibaba and Qualcomm while exing several other tech and China positions.
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Entrada $124,00 15 ago 2026Atual $124,00 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
His only meaningful additions were Service Now and Co-star while he trimmed most of his established compounders.
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Entrada $32,38 15 ago 2026Atual $32,38 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
His only meaningful additions were Service Now and Co-star while he trimmed most of his established compounders.
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Entrada $224,55 15 ago 2026Atual $224,55 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
They open positions in Home Depot and FedEx Freight while trimming waste management and Berkshire Hathaway.
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Entrada $89,35 15 ago 2026Atual $89,35 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Berkshire, they also increased Delta and LAR while reducing Bank of America, Kroger, New Court, and Capital 1.
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Entrada $64,49 15 ago 2026Atual $64,49 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Berkshire, they also increased Delta and LAR while reducing Bank of America, Kroger, New Court, and Capital 1.
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Entrada $56,69 15 ago 2026Atual $56,69 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Berkshire, they also increased Delta and LAR while reducing Bank of America, Kroger, New Court, and Capital 1.
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Entrada $227,34 15 ago 2026Atual $227,34 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Berkshire, they also increased Delta and LAR while reducing Bank of America, Kroger, New Court, and Capital 1.
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Entrada $84,79 15 ago 2026Atual $84,79 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
increasing pin duo duo by 134% and Berkshire by 23.
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Entrada $64,49 15 ago 2026Atual $64,49 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
he exited completely out of bank of America accidental H&R Block Moody's S&P Global and Msei.
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Entrada $53,92 15 ago 2026Atual $53,92 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
he exited completely out of bank of America accidental H&R Block Moody's S&P Global and Msei.
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Entrada $484,96 15 ago 2026Atual $484,96 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
he exited completely out of bank of America accidental H&R Block Moody's S&P Global and Msei.
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Entrada $569,13 15 ago 2026Atual $569,13 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
he exited completely out of bank of America accidental H&R Block Moody's S&P Global and Msei.
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Entrada $547,93 15 ago 2026Atual $547,93 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
He also opened large positions in Martin Marietta and Vulcan materials together worth almost $1.5 billion dollars at this portfolio date.
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Entrada $282,00 15 ago 2026Atual $282,00 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
He also opened large positions in Martin Marietta and Vulcan materials together worth almost $1.5 billion dollars at this portfolio date.
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Entrada $212,06 15 ago 2026Atual $212,06 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Booking up 80%, Uber up 61%, S&P Global up 42, AppLoving up 39, and Meta up 24.
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Entrada $75,95 15 ago 2026Atual $75,95 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Booking up 80%, Uber up 61%, S&P Global up 42, AppLoving up 39, and Meta up 24.
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Entrada $315,44 15 ago 2026Atual $315,44 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Booking up 80%, Uber up 61%, S&P Global up 42, AppLoving up 39, and Meta up 24.
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Entrada $75,95 15 ago 2026Atual $75,95 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
opening 13 new positions including Uber, Mastercard, TSM, Netflix, GE, Verona, Applovin, TJX and Next Tracker
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Entrada $426,35 15 ago 2026Atual $426,35 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
opening 13 new positions including Uber, Mastercard, TSM, Netflix, GE, Verona, Applovin, TJX and Next Tracker
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Entrada $78,16 15 ago 2026Atual $78,16 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
opening 13 new positions including Uber, Mastercard, TSM, Netflix, GE, Verona, Applovin, TJX and Next Tracker
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Entrada $368,38 15 ago 2026Atual $368,38 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
opening 13 new positions including Uber, Mastercard, TSM, Netflix, GE, Verona, Applovin, TJX and Next Tracker
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Entrada $315,44 15 ago 2026Atual $315,44 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
opening 13 new positions including Uber, Mastercard, TSM, Netflix, GE, Verona, Applovin, TJX and Next Tracker
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Entrada $152,11 15 ago 2026Atual $152,11 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
opening 13 new positions including Uber, Mastercard, TSM, Netflix, GE, Verona, Applovin, TJX and Next Tracker
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Entrada $12,98 15 ago 2026Atual $12,98 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
additions to Oak Tree Specialty Lending, Telephone and Data Systems and Barrack alongside numerous small new positions as well as exits.
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Entrada $35,21 15 ago 2026Atual $35,21 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
additions to Oak Tree Specialty Lending, Telephone and Data Systems and Barrack alongside numerous small new positions as well as exits.
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Entrada $44,00 15 ago 2026Atual $44,00 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
additions to Oak Tree Specialty Lending, Telephone and Data Systems and Barrack alongside numerous small new positions as well as exits.
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Entrada $19,01 15 ago 2026Atual $19,01 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Seth Karman well he increased Norwegian Cruise Line, Genuine Parts, GDS, Amazon and Alphabet
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Entrada $135,03 15 ago 2026Atual $135,03 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Seth Karman well he increased Norwegian Cruise Line, Genuine Parts, GDS, Amazon and Alphabet
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Entrada $34,41 15 ago 2026Atual $34,41 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Seth Karman well he increased Norwegian Cruise Line, Genuine Parts, GDS, Amazon and Alphabet
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Entrada $269,80 15 ago 2026Atual $269,80 14 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
opening CME Exalta and a small Persian Square position.
Transcrição Completa
Over the last 48 hours, dozens of the world's most closely followed investors revealed exactly what they owned at the end of the second quarter. And across the filings reported so far, there were more than 1,100 individual buys and additions, but a surprisingly small group of companies, well, they kept on appearing. Berkshire Hathaway, well, in fact, they added roughly 48 million Alphabet shares worth around $7 billion during the quarter end. Yet we can see that Bill Aman moved in completely the opposite direction, selling both Alphabet share classes and exiting the position completely. Meanwhile, four very different managers independently put fresh money into Uber, including one investor who increased his position by more than 60%. And then we have two respected investors who bought a former market darling after it share price collapsed more than 50% this year. So today, we're going to separate genuine consensus from portfolio noise, examine what these businesses must deliver, and rank the seven most interesting opportunities at today's price. And I actually begin with eight candidates, but one extremely popular stock will not survive the final ranking. And the reason it's buried inside cash flow assumption. And before we start, these filings, they're snapshots of US-listed long positions held on June 30th. They don't reveal cash, short positions, foreign holdings, or everything purchased since then. And you'll also notice the reported price here. It's simply the market price on the portfolio date. Is not the manager's purchase price. I would say the useful information here is direction, position size, and repetition. One manager buying that can be interesting. Several managers independently reaching the same conclusion. Well, in my opinion, that's much more revealing. It is also worth highlighting here that these decisions were made while the S&P 500 recovered from the March decline and returned to record highs following a strong earning season and volatility. Well, it tells us the same story. The VIX more than doubled to 31 in March, but by August is fallen back below 15. And then we can also note that fear has been replaced by greed. It makes valuation more important because copying a famous investor after the markets already rallied, well, that can be extremely dangerous. However, though, this has not simply been another narrow technology rally. Courtney Garcia argues that earnings and market breadth, well, they've both improved and that matters for these filings. >> Are people too bullish? >> I don't think so. And I I think ultimately the the markets are being driven by earnings right now and the earnings are justifying what the markets were doing. People were getting concerned about capex spending, but I think the more that you see these earnings come out, it really is justifying that. And I think when you look at the markets as a whole, if you look at the last three months, the things that are leading are healthcare, financials, industrials, those are all actually outperforming the S&P 500, which means you're seeing this really broad-based rally. There's no longer just seven names that are holding up the markets. And the fact that even in days where AI is driving the story, you're seeing everything participate. I really like that as a good story. And if earnings keep holding up and the consumer keeps holding up, I think the markets will continue to drive higher. >> And this is important because the filings confirm a broader opportunity set, payments, financial data, travel, industrials, and consumer companies while they appeared alongside the obvious AI beneficiaries. We can see that Microsoft attracted the most buys in quarter 2, followed by Meta, Visa, and Amazon. But these aggreate numbers, they do hide some striking disagreements between individual managers. Bill Aman we can see and in fact if you're interested in a deep dive in his portfolio we did that just days ago. He opened new positions in Visa, Mascard, SMB Global and Netflix while also adding to Uber Meta restaurant brands as well as Microsoft. When we take a look at the overall portfolio, Uber is now in fact his largest disclosed position at 12.7%. Interesting to see he reduced Amazon by 25% and sold both Alphabet share classes completely. I would say when we take a look in fact the pattern is clear from Acman less concentration in Alphabet and Amazon with fresh exposure to payments, financial data, streaming and selected platform businesses. We then move on to billionaire David Ter who was more aggressive. He increased BU by 87%, Meta by 55%, TSM by 24, Uber by 22 and Amazon by 16. He also bought Boeing, American Airlines, Corewave, Broadcom and SpaceX. While Amazon remained his largest disclosed holding was actually interesting to see this was not blind semiconduct enthusiasm. T as we can see he reduced Micron, AMD, Alibaba and Qualcomm while exing several other tech and China positions. Chuck Ari well he actually did almost the opposite. His only meaningful additions were Service Now and Co-star while he trimmed most of his established compounders. We can also see looking at his whole portfolio, Mascard in fact that was reduced by almost 13% yet remained his largest position at 20% of the portfolio. That's portfolio management, not necessarily a broken thesis. And then we have the Bill and Meinda Gates Foundation Trust. They open positions in Home Depot and FedEx Freight while trimming waste management and Berkshire Hathaway. Having said that though, Burkshire Hathaway still represents more than 21% of the trust followed by Caterpillar, Canadian National Railway and Waste Management. So it does remain still a highly concentrated real economy portfolio. And then we get to Berkshire Hathaway where their standout move was for Alphabet. They increased shares in GOG by around 658% while GOGL that rose 45% creating a combined position worth around $ 38 billion. And when we take a look at the portfolio as a whole, well now Alphabet is in fact Bergkshire's third largest disclosed equity exposure after Apple and American Express. And across both share classes, it now holds around 13% waiting. And Bergkshire, they also increased Delta and LAR while reducing Bank of America, Kroger, New Court, and Capital 1. We should obviously call this a Berkshire decision, not automatically a Buffett decision as he did step down. We then move on to Leelu who made his already concentrated portfolio even more focused, increasing pin duo duo by 134% and Berkshire by 23. We can see whole portfolio alphabet's two share classes represented nearly 48% of the portfolio. Alphabet pin duo duo and berkshire together accounted for around 85% and interesting he exited completely out of bank of America accidental H&R Block Moody's S&P Global and Msei. Now this is what I'd say conviction through concentration but also a reminder that respected investors well as we're seeing they're in fact disagreeing. We then move on to Chris Hone who opened large positions in Martin Marietta and Vulcan materials together worth almost $1.5 billion dollars at this portfolio date. He also added to Alphabet, S&P Global and Visa but sold Microsoft completely. G Aerospace and Visa while they still dominate his concentrated portfolio. Then we get to Pat Dorsy who produced one of the quarters most interesting list. Booking up 80%, Uber up 61%, S&P Global up 42, AppLoving up 39, and Meta up 24. And the common thread here is not one industry, it's assetike businesses with data, networks, pricing power, or unusually strong incremental margins. Then we get to Terry Smith who transformed his portfolio opening 13 new positions including Uber, Mastercard, TSM Netflix GE Verona Applovin TJX and Next Tracker, and simultaneously actually reducing Alphabet by 40%, Visa by 35, Microsoft by 23, and Meta by 20% while in fact exiting Home Depot completely. Now, it doesn't mean he suddenly dislikes every company they trimmed. Several new positions were large enough that actually the capital had to come from somewhere else. And then you have Oak Tree's filing which was more eclectic additions to Oak Tree Specialty Lending, Telephone and Data Systems and Barrack alongside numerous small new positions as well as exits. Seth Karman well he increased Norwegian Cruise Line, Genuine Parts, GDS, Amazon and Alphabet while opening CME Exalta and a small Persian Square position. And looking at the portfolio as a whole, Amazon in fact became Clarkman's largest disclosed holding we can see around 17% but as activity also mix recovery trades defensive and highquality platforms. But before treating every reduction that we just went through as a bearish signal, listen to Mike Wilson. His point explains much of what we just saw from Acri and Terry Smith. >> So there are many things you can do from a stylistic standpoint that you can protect yourself. Once again, what I think people have loaded up on now is, you know, large cap growth stocks and those have been great and that's why they want to continue to own those. But just understand it, you're unbalanced, okay? So, you better make sure you're going to be right for the next three, four, five years. And by the way, taking profits and paying yourself and paying Uncle Sam is not is not a sin. That is the correct lens. A trim can mean valuation, concentration, or funding a new idea. An outright exit is strong evidence, but even that is not infallible. And now we can move from what they did to what these stocks offer today. Seven make the final ranking and Amazon we're going to test that separately at the end. Now before we get into detail just to let you know that we release one weekly article where we cover severely undervalued stocks. What's gone in the market over the last few days and you can click on the pin comment below sign up and read all of these straight away. And Alphabet is the most dramatic disagreement. Bergkshire as we said added shares worth roughly $17 billion at quarter end prices while Leelu already had almost half of his portfolio invested. Yet when we take a look at Bill Aman he sold both classes completely. Terry Smith also reduced Alphabet by 40% while Terone and Clarman moved in the opposite direction and actually bought more. And at around $345, Alphabet is up around 10 to 11% year to date with a market value that's now sitting over $4 trillion. And we do notice a strong Wall Street buy rating. Now, the operating numbers here remain impressive. We can see forward revenue growth projected 20%, EBIT dollar growth 25%, EBIT growth sitting at 24 and expected EPS anticipated by analysts to grow around 22.5%. The valuation depends on the earnings definition we've got here. When we compare historical data, the forward P on a 5-year average sits at 2122. That's sitting now at around 26 1/2. This could indicate a potential overvaluation signal. And then when we take a look at the blue tunnel from Simply Safe Dividends, which highlights fair value, in fact, intrinsic price, we can see that Alphabet sits above the upper end. Again, another potential overvaluation signal. Something very rare actually to see for this company when looking back at the last 10 years. Analysts however remain optimistic with an average target around $428 implying around 24% upside. The range we can see from $340 on the lower end to $515 on the upper. Now my DCF is less enthusiastic. The base case here 14% growth produce a value of $323 with the sensitivity range $35 to 342 at the upper end below in fact the current price in every single scenario. The reverse DCF today well it's telling us it requires around 16.2% free cash flow growth. Yes, it's achievable but it already assumes significant AI monetization and cash flow expansion. And in fact, we can see that free cash flow, well on a year-on-year basis, is down 51%. It's been pressured by the spending cycle. Alphabet can still outperform, but today's price leaves less room for execution errors than what the headline P suggests. So my conclusion is an exceptional business improving growth and enormous strategic assets, but then on obvious margin of safety purchase, Burk's conviction, it doesn't make the valuation irrelevant. And then we get Uber which produced the cleanest agreement among our selected managers. Aman increased his position by 14.6% making it his largest disclosed holding. And we've also got Teor who added 21.5%. Pat Dorsey in fact increased his state by 61% and Terry Smith opened the new position representing around 5% of his portfolio. And we can see Uber is down around 7% year to date trading around $76. And bear in mind this is despite the business continuing to expand revenue margins and free cash flow. We've got forward revenue growth which sits around 15%, EBIT DAR at 29%, EBIT at 57, long-term EPS sitting just above 26% while lever free cash flow margin forecasted to grow around 23 and a half. Uber as well looks fairly attractive on valuation trading around 22 23 times forward earnings is also below its 5year average of 30. So sitting at around a 25% discount and you've got consensus. Now they do expect a noisy 2026 EPS comparison followed by 41% growth in 27 25 in 28 and then 19% in 2029. And Wall Street while the average price target comes in just shy of $102 indicate around 34% upside. The range fairly wide $70 at the lower end 150 at the higher end. And my DCF, well, it is much more bullish than what we just saw from Alphabet. Starting around 10 billion, that is based on analyst expectations and using 8% growth at the lower end. Well, in fact, does indicate around 79% upside. But bear in mind just a few things. For consistency on this channel, we do use 3% growth perpetually and 8% discount rate. Although 8% discount rate for Uber, you could say is a bit generous for a company exposed to regulation, competition, and autonomous vehicles. What I would say though is the more defensible takeaway here for Uber is that the reverse DCF well today's valuation it looks to appear to require no sustained free cash flow growth despite when we've done our deeper dives and we've seen clear operating momentum. So Uber it's therefore more than a copy trade for managers a below history multiple and improving cash economics well it all points in the exact same direction. We then move to meta and we can see it attracted even broader buying. Tea will he increase his position by 55%, Dorsey by 24 and Aman by 20. Yet when we take a look at Terry Smith, will he actually reduce Meta by 20% giving us another genuine disagreement? Powerful advertising economics versus the cost and uncertainty of the AI investment cycle. and Meta trading around $590. It's down around 11% year to date and it trades pretty much around 19 times forward earnings, which when we take a look at it, it's lower than their 5year average that sits at 22. While the dividend yield, although they've just recently started paying, is pretty much in line with their average. In terms of the blue tunnel though, we do still get that undervaluation signal. It is sitting below the bottom end. But over the last 5 10 years, Meta, unlike some other companies that we've looked at on this channel, this one more than typical to sit actually trading at a severely undervalued level. But the bare case for Meta, well, it goes beyond valuation. Roger McName argues that Meta's public AI positioning is stronger than his actual competitive position. Let's take a listen. When Zuckerberg comes out with this manifesto, he's trying to solve two problems. He's trying to both create the illusion that Meta is well positioned in AI, which I do not think is the case, and secondly, he's trying to basically launder his own reputation. That is the skeptic's case. The numbers offer a counterargument. Forward revenue growth, that's almost 23%. EBID dollar growth over 21% and long-term EPS, well, that's sitting at 20.8. Now, yes, we can see that both near-term EPS as well as free cash flow, well, they're weaker because expenditures arriving before the hopeful monetization and that timing gap, that's the central risk. We've got analyst average target sitting at $750. That's essentially implying around 28% upside. Although the lower target that we can see, that pretty much sits almost close to today's trading price. Now, my base case here produces a value of $734. Sensitivity range $690. to the lower end 780. In fact, all three of these scenarios show double-digit upside while the reverse DCF that only requires around 5% growth. Now, bear in mind the model does obviously assume that free cash flow recovers dramatically after 2026. But much of the value arrives only if today's infrastructure spending becomes tomorrow's earning engine. And Meta, well, it's one of the better combinations of growth and valuation here. But investors must be comfortable funding Zuckerberg before essentially receiving proof of the return. And then we move on to stock number four. Apploving is the highest upside and highest risk candidate. Dorsy increases holding by around 39% while Terry Smith opened a new 3% position. Naploving trading at $315. The shares themselves are down 53% year to date and pretty much sitting around 52-E lows. Now on valuation alone, the stock actually still looks expensive on sales. But forward nongap P that's fallen to around 19 roughly around 38% below its 5year average which sits around the 31 mark. And you can see that consensus P falls from around 20 in 2026 down to 15 and 27 12 in 2028 and something similar by 2029. That's assuming that the earnings forecast survive. And just take a look at their growth expectations. The forecast remain extraordinary. Forward revenue growth 30%, EBIT DAR 48%. EBIT sitting at 64. EPS forecasted around the 65% region. And led free cash flow, I mean that was up 71% year-over-year expected strong returns over the next 12 months. And Wall Street, well, they clearly like it. They see $549 over the next 12 months. That indicates around 74% upside. Although bear in mind we can see the range the lower end 357 that is in essence above today's share price. So you can already see what Wall Street believe they are thinking that sentiment has fallen so far that even their most bearish analysts see upside from today's value. And my base ECF it produces a value of $58. But the range it is enormous. 371 at the lower end 5% growth up to $690. That's at 15%. Now you could also say discount rate is too forgiving for this level of volatility and sales multiple. Nevertheless, it is what makes this filing interesting and based on this you can see reverse ETF at 2.3%. We can note that both Dorsy and Smith bought after a collapse while the operating forecast they in fact remain intact. So Apploving it offers the largest upside but also the greatest chance that one earnings disappointment destroys the valuation thesis. Position sizing here for apploving it matters enormously. We then move on to stock five TSM the AI infrastructure toll road tea increased TSM by 24% while Terry Smith opened the new position representing 4% of his total portfolio and across the broader database seven managers bought or added to TSM and 24 track super investors already own the company. The fundamental attraction, well, it's obvious. AI infrastructure companies generated 54% year-over-year EPS growth in just the latest quarter. Compare that to 14% outside the group. Now, also worth mentioning that semiconductor momentum's weakened in historical cases after prolonged breaks below the 50-day average, where it shows mixed, often negative short-term outcomes. And TSM's valuation works only if AI spending eventually becomes profitable demand. Dan Ies explains why bulls believe this earning season provided that validation. >> Look, I think earnings has really caught up to valuations. I mean, if you if you think about what we saw from the hypers scalers and then the neo clouds in terms of nebas, coreweave and others, the monetization phase is starting to happen. And I think with that that was the validation sign investors needed to see not just some capbacks but in terms of enterprises starting to monetize going into now the second third fourth derivatives and I think that's why we continue to see tech higher that has really been a very like I would almost call it an inflection point in terms of what we're seeing with AI revolution. >> That's the bull case at $426. TSM's up more than 40% year to date, but it's roughly down around 10% from his 52- week all-time high at $480. We've got the forward P, which sits around 22 times, almost identical to the 5-year average. So, TSM is not cheap relative to itself. And that's also what we're getting from the blue tunnel. It's pretty much sitting bang in the middle over the last year. It has trade a few times in the premium overvaluation end. And if you want to see this severely undervalued, you'd have to go to mid 2025. Before that, back to around mid to end 2022. And growth for TSM, it is exceptional. Revenue forecasted growth 37%, EBIT DAR 40%, EBIT around 49, EPS around 46%. And you can see every single one of these well above the sector comparative. In fact, most cases we're talking triple digits. And the average analyst target $547 implying 28% upside. Although we can see the lower-end target $432 pretty much implying no upside. Now my base DCF gives $57 but it does also assume around 20% growth. The reverse DCF or that requires around 17% annual free cash flow expansion. Now that can happen if advanced chip demand remains extraordinary. But semiconductor cyclicality, capital intensity and Taiwan's geopolitical risk, well it justifies in my opinion a wider margin of safety. We then move on to stock six S&P Global and it may be the least exciting name in the episode, but his valuation may be the easiest to defend. We can see Aman opening up a new position around 5.4% of his total portfolio. As well as Pat Dorsy, we can see he increased his stake by 42% while Hone added slightly to a position which already represents around 11% of his portfolio. And we can see that across all track filings, nine managers bought or added S&P Global. Leelu provides the counter point after exiting completely. Now S&P Global trading around $419. It's down around 20% year to date is actually not too far off is 52- week lows as well where we get an interesting system here. Strong buy from Wall Street, weak buy rating from C alpha with a fairly rare sell from quant. We can also notice the forward P. It has fallen dramatically although slightly recovered now sitting around 22 times. 5-year average sits just shy of 30 and its dividend yield slightly above 5year 0.93 versus 085 where even after slightly in fact improving from 52- week lows we still notice the undervaluation signal we pretty much seen this from February this year last 5 10 years provides a very interesting point here S&P Global incredibly rare if at all in the period to even see it in a slight undervaluation signal now we're seeing a fairly large disconnect now The reason we have seen weakness is in fact the near-term growth not looking great at all. Analysts forecasting 3% moving forwards both Ebit and in fact EBIT sitting around 5 to 6% EPS anticipated growth just shy of 9. And the average analyst target well that sits at $517 implying around 23% upside. I mean even the low target of $444 it does offer modest upside from today's price. Now my base DCF well that value comes to $531. More importantly the reverse ECF only requires 5.2% growth lower than any other rank compounder. And I mean even the 6% growth here we can see comes to $448. The valuation for S&P Global doesn't require return to the company's historical doubledigit growth immediately. We can see 5year 11% 10ear free cash flow sitting at 16%. And that combination overall recurring data ratings and index revenue a depressed multiple and conservative expectations. Well, it creates one of the cleanest risk setups in the entire group today. We then move on to stock 7 Mastercard. I'd say quality at a fair price and Mastercard was purchased by Aman and Terry Smith while Chuck Akri reduced his stake but still kept it as 20% of the portfolio. You'll also notice here as well that six managers bought or added Microsoft during the quarter and 22 Strax super investors held the company overall and Mascard sitting just shy of $570 is pretty much flat year to date and is trading around the mid to upper end of the 52 week range. Strong buy from Wall Street, respectable buy from Seek Alpha and the Forward P. Well, it's sitting around 27 times but that is below the 5year 31. So, it's cheaper relative to history, but I wouldn't call this cheap in absolute terms. We're on the blue tunnel. We do get a slight undervaluation signal, although we've noted this over the last few months, last 5 10 years. Again, Mascard not one of these companies that typically sits at this range. Now, in terms of looking at their growth, forward revenue expectations, 14%, EBIT as well as EBIT, both these above 15, earnings per share above 16. Not explosive, but I'd say remarkably consistent. And then you've got Wall Street's average target price $665 implying 17% upside. The target at the lower end of $550. Well, that sits slightly below today's value. And my base ETF very near to what we just saw from Wall Street $657. The lowase 8% 559. The uptrend more optimistic sitting at $771. With today's pricing implying around 8.2% free cash flow growth is below Mascar's historical rate. We can see 17 and 16% respectively on the 5 and 10ear KGA. And I would say 8.2% does give us a reasonable although not an enormous margin of safety. So I'd say Mascard is the classic highquality compounder. His upside is smaller than Applovings, but the durability of the network while it's considerably easier to underwrite. And then we get to the eighth stock which is in fact Amazon. Now it is probably the obvious emission. 11 managers bought or added shares and 34 track super investors own the company. We've got ter who added 16% in climate while Bill Aman actually reduced his position by 25%. The company clearly deserves examination. Now it sits around $262 is up 14% year to date and it trades around 21 times forward earnings with strong growth and profitability grades. We can see a double strong buy from both Wall Street and Quant respectable buy from C alpha and the earnings multiple sitting at 21. While it's dramatically below the historical non-GAAP average of sitting at 160, although sales and enterprise value multiples, they remain much much higher than the wider sector. And if we're talking about Amazon in terms of growth, well, it gets an A minus. Overall, revenue expected a whole to grow around 14%. EBIT are 23%. EBIT sitting at 27, earnings over the next year around 24%. So on earnings, the valuation itself, it does look compelling. And then we've got analyst targets with their average price $327. We're talking around 25% projected upside. My DCF gives $36. So it does, you could say, confirm there is a nice opportunity. But one thing that's very important with Amazon is look at the cash flow path. This is based on analyst expectations. 5 billion in 26, 20 billion in 2027, 1628, 120 billion in 29, and in fact 175 billion by 2030. So in essence, the $36 valuation depends far more on the rapid recovery than the headline 12% growth assumption assumes. The low case, well, that in fact only offers around 3% upside. So Amazon as a whole, yes, it may outperform, but the present cash flow is distorted by enormous capex spend. So I think it's best today not to rank the model above the seven companies given that they all have clearer current economics. So if we're ranking them at number seven would be Alphabet. It may be the best collection of assets here but the valuation as we can see doesn't currently provide a margin of safety. In fact we're talking a 7% premium. Then we move to number six which is TSM. Extraordinary growth and an irreplaceable position balanced against the near normal multiple cyclicality and geopolitical risk. We then have number five Mascard upside not spectacular but the quality predictability and below history valuation it makes it highly dependable. We then have app loving at number four is the greatest upside and greatest forecast risk. So I would only approach it with deliberately smaller position. At number three meta the multiples attractive and the advertising engine remains exceptional but the AI spending must ultimately produce cash returns. At number two, Uber. Four managers bought operating leverages arriving and both the earnings multiple and reverse ETF. Well, they appear undemanding. And then we have number one, S&P Global. It combines nine buyers, a depressed historical multiple, and in fact the least demanding cash flow assumption in the entire group today. Now, doesn't mean SPGI would deliver the highest return. It means its present price requires less to go right, which is how I define attractive risk versus reward. The wider lesson though is that super investors were buying but not blindly. They were rotating between growth quality payments data travel and real economy assets. And as always, these filings are an idea generator, not a substitute for valuation. The price we pay today, not the famous name beside the filing. That will determine our return. Now, let me know which of the seven you'd buy today, and whether Amazon deserves to make the final ranking. If you found this useful, smash the like button. Hit that subscribe and bell button so you're updated for future releases. Don't forget to sign up to the weekly newsletter. Fresh copy dropping in a matter of days. More importantly though, have a great day. I'll see you all on the next
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