STOCKS FALL - OIL PRICES RISE - Half Time & Closing Bell - Monday, August 17th 2026

Blue cloud trading through the night. >> Welcome back to the channel everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the halftime report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking heads are saying. Hit that like button. Subscribe if you haven't already and let's roll the tape on the first clip. >> All right, guys. Thanks so much. Welcome to the halftime report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour. This record setting market stocks on a 3-w weekek winning streak, but are investors growing too bullish? We'll ask the committee. Joining me for the hour, Joe Teranova, Shannon Sakosa, Jim Leventhal, and Steven Weiss. Check the markets here. We uh obviously have a little bit of a give back today on everything but the NASDAQ, which is green. So, we're 3-week winning streak. The VIX fell to its lowest level of the year on Friday. Every sector within this market is now in the green for the year. Edard Denny had already taken his target to 8,400 for 2026 says we're going to 10,000 or beyond by the end of the decade. The roaring 20s in full effect. Why? Because earnings are amazing. Evercore this morning, long-term stock market trend continues to be higher. We have the potential for a FOMO driven overshoot. SPX 9000 is attainable in the next 12 months, even if you don't overshoot on a valuation standpoint. >> Joe, what say you? >> I think you can get to 10,000 in the next 18 months. Um, I see no reason why why not. >> U, I agree with the representation of earnings being at really a historic pace for the last seven quarters. The the market is kind of settling in as you move towards the back end of August. I think a lot I'm hearing a lot of people say, okay, look at the market and maybe this is the opportunity to sell. There's universal bullishness and that's the reason to sell. And I couldn't disagree more with that. I think really what's happening as you move towards the end of August is the market's becoming more tactical. Okay, the market is identifying opportunities and maintaining those opportunities. So memory came back last week. Optical came back. >> We're maintaining that position. We're rebuilding positioning. The bullish momentum remains in place. Energy, we've spoken about the refiners. Same example there. Rebuild positioning, maintain positioning. And then financials. Look, once again today, I'm looking, you've got Bank of America, 52- week high, State Street, Charles Schwab, PNC. So, there's strength in financials as well. The market is more tactical. And just because it appears as though maybe volatility and the environment is a little bit slower, the market's not moving as fast, that is not a reason to sell, that's actually indicative of a market that is waiting to reacelerate as we move into the fall and broaden out once again. >> Okay. Um thankfully Weiss is not maintaining his positioning uh because he is no longer blending in with the wall. So we appreciate that. Appreciate you putting a new piece of art up. Weiss, what about you on this market? Uh, Yard Denni 10,000 by the end of the decade, 9,000 by the end of the in 12 months for Evercore, 10,000 from Terteranova. People are pretty bullish. I asked a question, too bullish or just right? >> You know, I tried I'm bullish as well and I tried to think of what can derail the bullishness. uh we know earnings are good and and there's every reason to believe they'll accelerate. A lot of it driven by AI. So what are the obvious things that could hit it? Number one, if rates go up measurably, if the Fed starts tightening, and that'll be because of oil, or the consumer, which is still twothirds of the economy, uh starts to weaken further. Now, I think the market's going to look both past oil and and the consumer because it's really one the same thing. So, so I am bullish and of course there's always the AI trade which right now shows no sign of easing up. So yes, so I'm in agreement the market could move higher but I do think there's some risks out there which I just named which could derail it a little bit but I don't really see any disaster. >> You know what Deutsche calls this current equilibrium. Do we think that's sustainable? >> Uh yes, but for how long is the question? And I would say certainly through the end of the year and the equilibrium that I see and Shannon I think you were pointing this out is that the multiple roughly 21 times uh next year's earnings on the S&P 500 is very reasonable for the growth rate that we're having in earnings mid20s percent even if you strip out the one-timers. The problem and I'm not going to say the problem but the thing to consider is that growth rate of mid20s percent is not going to last in perpetuity. That's why I'm not that comfortable going as enthusiastic into 2027. Let me be clear. I am not suggesting selling stocks. That's not my point. My point though is that over the last four years, including this year, we've had well into double digit percentage returns on the S&P 500. And I think that will continue through year end. But I think the bar for growth of earnings becomes much higher in 2027. We're looking at, you know, roughly 14% earnings growth next year. And the slightest disappointment to those numbers could bring the multiple down. Now, let's be clear. We're talking about earnings growth and a market that should be going higher, but I think it's tough to predict a fifth year of double-digit uh gains. It's only happened once. Only happened once, the late '90s. >> Why aren't people talking about guys? Give me the 30-year, please. Why aren't we why aren't we focused and fixated more on that? The 30-year Treasury, which is now at 529. Okay. So, Wor >> comes out of that Fed meeting, right? And, you know, reveals the fact there were three dissents. the talk seems to be uh much more hawkish even though the action didn't match the rhetoric. Nonetheless, the 30-year yield shoots higher. We continue to have a lot of issuance coming on the market, right? These debt raises from the hyperscalers among others. >> The concerns about the deficit and whatever other issues you want to suggest are leading to the fact that the 30-year yield continues to rise. >> It doesn't matter. >> I uh for now it doesn't matter, but I think you're on to something, Scott. I do. I don't so much think it's the 30-year that matters as it is the 10-year. Um the 10ear, as I think we all know, has been in a range of 4% on the low end to 5% on the high end for about 3 years. And we do have to wonder if what the 30-year is doing is telling us that the 10year is going to go higher. And if it goes above 5%, that could be a way of the world saying, listen, we're not going to finance indefinite deficits, whether it's at the federal government level or at the hypers scale or negative free cash flow level. But I want to make this point clear as well that while it is wise of you, Scott, to bring up that question and for us to discuss it. This is not an action that somebody should take now, at least in my opinion, somebody should not look at the 30-year at 5.29% and say, "Well, that's it. I got to get out of all my hyperscalers because higher interest rates are here." What the interest rate environment is reflecting is that there is greater uncertainty with Kevin Worsh who is speaking much less to the media. I mean it does Shan raise a question of you know whether this is an opportunity to increase your exposure in in bonds or if if it's too early because you still think that yields are going to back up even further. I mean I hear some people suggest that this is a generational opportunity potentially the way that the the 30-year has backed up. >> Yeah. And curve steepening is not getting the attention I think that it deserves. But I think that the reason why is that for right now I think the equity markets in particular are looking at real rates rising as an indication of growth. You start to think about that in terms of inflation or valuation stress or that greater issuance then it starts to look a little bit less tenable. But the overall steepening of the curve gives you as an investor significantly more latitude to add incremental duration a couple of years lock in some nice yields and then potentially benefit if like we expect the Fed doesn't hike this year. um you're going to see that come in as you get closer to December and you could have already locked in what have been much more attractive yield. >> That's what I mean. And especially if the next move is a if the first move of the worst Fed is a is a cut, not a hike. And I don't count a pause as a move. It's more clear to me of either a hike or a cut. I I think we're all puzzled why the equity market in risk assets have not responded to the rise in global yields, not just US yields, because global yields are rising. And I think the the the common denominator is the absence of the volatility. There still is not elevated bond market volatility. It's a very gradual orderly increase. The corporate debt market spreads remain tight. Offerings strong demand for them. So I think at the point where the velocity of the move intensifies then it becomes troubling then it becomes something that you have to worry about. I still think by the way if you define 2026 and you say where is the correction come from it's not on rising yields it's not on rising oil it's anytime the momentum factor breaks down. When the momentum factor breaks down, the market rolls over. And the momentum factor, a day like today, you have the S&P, S&P, equate bolt down, momentum factors higher, the market's comfortable. >> Yeah. And you know what it does when that happens? The market sort of resets and rebuilds Weiss, right? It's it's done that on almost every occasion when momentum has rolled over. It's felt a little dicey for a few days, maybe a week, but then it has rebuilt itself. I'm not sure what the, you know, the MTUM is showing today. The JOT's at a 52- week high. I saw that this morning when I looked and that's as representative of this trade as anything else. So is that obviously right there that that's one of the reasons why people are feeling pretty good because there's a lot of stuff going up. >> Yeah. I I I think we have to be careful of saying that past will not be prologue in some in some cases. Rising rates and a steepening yield curve. Rising rates always compress equity multiples because the future growth is not going to be there as it was before rates went up. And to attribute this market, it's always going to be momentum market I think is a mistake. To your point, however, and I've been talking about this for years now, is that it's completely different investing cohort that's driving it. If you take out the everything that's in passive money and you take a look at who the investors are, they are used to V-shaped recoveries. So, until further notice, the 10-year catchup trade that we saw post the 2000 bubble bursting, those are things really, they're relics. We're not going to see those again for a long time. So, it's going to be V-shaped recovery, which Scott, to your point, is a reset. So, but I think at this point, as I pointed out in my initial comment, rates are the risk. We don't need WSH to come out and say raise rates because he's saying the market's going to do it for me. And that's exactly what's happening. So, the market's not completely uh you know, ignoring it. To Shannon's point, it's largely ignoring it, but that's why we're seeing financials move up because they've got more of a spread to capture. the the momentum roll over recently, I think you could make the case, was arguably the best thing that's happened to this market in a while. Why? Because it cleaned up positioning. >> The the playing field got a lot cleaner. There was a lot of, you know, excess leverage in the system. Not to say that it's all dissipated, but nonetheless, it definitely cleaned up the environment >> 100%. And we're looking right now at the momentum factor. It's up 8% on the month. Um, that has been the story. Look, I still believe market structure has changed dramatically. I know Steve would agree with me on that. So it with the increase of all these quantitative strategies, the momentum factor I think is going to become even more important. But I also believe your point on positioning is a really strong one. And I think it's valuable to understand where we are in positioning because I think that's a leading indicator where markets ultimately are going to be going. Just as an example, take the Mag 7. Okay, take the Mag 7. Where were we three weeks ago? The story was about Alphabet. It was about Apple. I was building a position there and Nvidia was kind of asleep. Now, Nvidia has awakened ahead of earnings and it's on positioning. It's getting in front of earnings. It's building the position on the expectation that this is going to be a remarkable quarter. Positioning so incredibly important right now to understand. Jimmy, Nvidia is up 12 1.5% monthto date to to Joe's point about awakening. Tech, by the way, is on a roll. The the sector is leading uh this month 7 1/2% and it's no surprise, I suppose, that even on a relatively hoham market day that the NASDAQ is green. That only seems to make sense. Microsoft's been a nice winner this month, as has Meta. Joe said, you know, Nvidia reports its earnings in a in a little more than a week. They uh reportedly are downsizing their plans for the $250 billion guarantee of the OpenAI data center. That's just a news item that's there today. Uh but this stock's back and tech is having a nice little move again. >> Uh and today it's chips really within tech. Uh we can see what's happening with Micron with SanDisk. Um and I think it's very interesting in light of what we're just talking about how the narrative changes as the price changes. Our friend Scott Chris Veron, I know you have him on the 3:00 show quite often. He has a phrase that narrative follows price and I think it's very accurate because just go back about a month 5 weeks ago when the chips were down and the narrative was following the decline in chip prices uh that peak spending was here or at least peak spending was being anticipated by the market. Now that has dissipated as stocks like Nvidia and Micron recover and that should be the case because if you get away from the narrative and just look at what the actual drivers are there is a ton of spending going on in data center shows no letup roughly 800 billion for the top five hyperscalers this year going to 1.2 trillion next year. Wall Street Journal today has an interesting article about the offbalance sheet spending that's going on that adds about another 2.5 trillion to that. The point being is if you look at the fundamentals and forget about the narrative that's following price, you will be enthusiastic about Nvidia at roughly 20 times earnings going forward uh and an earnings growth rate of around 30 35%. I think you can put new money to work in Nvidia right now. >> Well, I think that's exactly what people are doing. people that were anchored to building the position in Amazon, in Apple, in Alphabet, which were the leading Mac seven year to date like Bergkshire. Right now, you're looking at an upcoming earnings report where the revenue growth reacelerates back into the 90% level. You're looking at margins at 75%. They're going to guide to a hundred billion quarter in Q3. You have to build long position. You can't sit on the sidelines and not have that long position going into the yard. So, I think that's ultimately what happening and it's interesting because there's the internal mag 7 rotation. Okay, I said this Nvidia is the leading mag 7 year to date. The next three best performers are Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple. Each one of those three Mag 7 stocks are down in the month of August. It's an internal rotation. Money going out there going into Nvidia. Is it strange to you, Jim? Let me see Alphabet again, guys. Whatever chart you just put up for me, please just put it back up cuz I I forgot what that was showing, but I want to see it again. >> Uh I think it was August or or whatever that was. Um thank you. Thank you, by the way. So is it strange to you that we learn of Alphabet, we learn of Bergkshire increasing its position in Alphabet and I think it was August guys and the stock not really getting much response. Whereas in the past can only assume that if you come out and you say, "Hey, Warren Buffett and Burkser Hathaway are increasing their stake by a fairly large amount in Alphabet, the stock looks pretty good." >> So there's a lot in what you just asked. Uh is it Greg Ael or is it the chairman? Is it Warren uh who's making these calls? And I think the market doesn't quite know. And if it is Greg Ael, he still has a track record of stock picking to prove. I think that's item number one. >> That's kind of the point I'm making is that >> the market has already sort of adjusted to the Buffett premium, if you will, >> leaving the market. >> Okay, that that is that is so that's actually what I was trying to say that if it were Greg Ael, it's not going to get the the premium that had it been Warren making the selection, but one has to it is Mr. Ael at this point. >> Fair enough. Fair enough. that it was it was Warren Buffett who initiated the position as I as I I recall he told Becky >> right but now from this point it's like >> so if able owns it >> so if there is no Warren premium there are other crossurrens that we need to consider yes a year ago Gemini was the leader in the large language model and since then over the last year even shorter than that it has become others it has become claude and it's sometimes open AI so that bloom is a little off the rose. Bear in mind the stock also is up massively from then. And then Scott, as you've pointed out, I guess it was a week, two weeks ago. We have had a diaspora of talent in the artificial intelligence division at uh Alphabet leaving and the stock has been heavy since then. I didn't want to believe it. You and I had a conversation that day that it happened and I thought this was an overreaction. Well, it turns out maybe it's not an overreaction because the stock has languished since that announcement. >> No, I I dismissed it as well. You were 100% correct. We could walk through this. >> Who was? >> You were 100% correct. Wednesday, August 5th. 384 all-time high in the morning. 384 alltime high for Alphabet in the morning. At around 11 something, we get the announcement about the chief scientist leaving Alphabet. The stock falls from 380 below 350. We discussed it on air. I dismissed it. Jimmy, you dismissed it as well. The stock has not been able to rally since. Now, in its defense, 80% web services growth year-over-year. >> I understand that. Absolutely. We understand the fundamentals. >> I think you're overreacting to people leaving >> is my view. You know, good >> to be right. >> Well, Jim Chenos used to keep a list of all the employees, senior employees that left Tesla and started keeping that list, I think, at about a hundred and then maybe earlier. And then look what happened to the stock. So, you have to assume, we heard the same thing with Goldman all the time. Oh, so and so is leaving. So and so is leaving. These companies have deep benches. They're not stupid. You don't know what the real reason is for that person leaving. Was the person pushed out because the people below them were chomping at the bit to move ahead. >> I don't know. I don't think that I I don't think that Alphabet's um AI division or whatever even smaller uh area is the same thing of talking about a firm the size of Goldman Sachs. I mean there obviously is is brain drain there there is brain drain concern >> u in in that area. And by the way, and we'll get to another story in a second that seems to be going through the same issues, but I just I'm not sure that's a a great comparison. >> I I'm noting the brain drain. >> Yeah, I'm not belittling the brain drain. Clearly, people are leaving that are accomplished there. What I'm saying is that companies have a way of getting through this, particularly the bigger companies. Take a look. When Johnny left Apple, we thought, oh, stock is dead. never gonna never create a newly a new great design on its devices. So companies do this over time. It happens. So you should pay attention to it, but you also got to know what's behind it. >> Well, >> and that we just don't know. >> Hey everybody, welcome to BlueCloud Trading. I'm George. We just saw the first segment of the halftime report. I'm going to show you guys the second segment as well as some clips from Closing Bell. Josh Brown's going to be on closing bill for the first time in a while and uh we're going to cover the stocks right uh that they discuss right after the video clips. So, why don't we do this? We're going to first I just want to show you guys how the markets were um basically closed today. It's currently 5:32 p.m. as I'm recording this video. S&P 500 was down 0.52%. The Nasdaq was down 32. Dow Jones was down 0.51 and the Russell 2000 was down 34%. There's not a whole lot of uh interesting things happening as far as the calendar the economic calendar is concerned tomorrow I guess the probably the the you know building permits and you've got the housing starts. So that's probably going to impact the real estate sector I'm going to guess. And then we're going to see down here on Wednesday, that's the FOMC meeting uh minutes that's going to take place at 2 p.m. That also can have some impact on the market. So, just keep that in mind. Uh but Thursday, you know, relatively zero impact almost uh from the different earnings uh um you know, news and same thing for Friday. So, that's it's a pretty uh easy week. Now, next week, however, if we look at next week, we've got uh Wednesday, August 26th. There's a quite a few things happening there on Wednesday that could, you know, certainly impact the market. So, just keep that in mind. And then following that on Friday, we've got the uh non-farm payroll uh annual revision. Okay. So, let's go back. I just want to show you guys one more thing. The heat map, this is how the market basically closed today. You can see the Microsoft, Oracle, a lot of the infrastructure software was down today, but the semiconductor equipment stocks were up. Computer hardware was up. You got the communication uh some of these communication uh services companies, I'm sorry, communication equipment uh companies doing well. And electronic components, healthcare stocks did well today. All right, the healthcare plans did not. Medical devices, not so much. Uh but energy stocks were up again. And that's uh mainly because of what's happening in the straight of horror moves. You know, the US stocks closed lower as rising oil and long-term yields tied to the US Iran tensions uh offset the chip strength ahead of the retail earnings and Fed minutes. So, let's let me show you guys what we're going to talk about. There's about 17 ticker symbols here. Not not all of them that were discussed, but that's quite a few from this most recent clip that we just saw. All right. You can see Nvidia. All right, Apple, Amazon, Google. We'll also take a look in the second clip. Check this out. 12 additional stocks and ETFs, including Walmart, XLU, which is the utilities ETF. We'll take a look at uh the indices in the second clip, and we'll also take a look at our member requests. All right, four additional stocks right there. So, let's get started here with this first clip. And what I've done is I've actually put the top two stocks at the top. Uh I I gave them a blue flag. And the reason I they get this little blue flag, as you know, if you follow this channel, is because they're meeting specific technical criteria that I'm looking for uh in regards to this indicator. It's called the Ichimoku indicator. It's Japanese indicator. And all we all we're really looking for is for price to be above the 9 period which is the green line, the 26 period, the red line, the ichimoku cloud, and the chu span. All right, the chica span is the current price projected 26 periods ago. We want that white line above the candle 26 periods ago. I also have the directional movement index at a setting of nine and the ADX at a setting of nine down here below for a little more additional confirmation. And I'll explain these as we go through these stocks. So, Nvidia, what do I like about it here? This is a weekly chart you're looking at. Um, Nvidia has been in a strong uptrend here. I mean, for for quite a while, right? It hasn't been under the cloud, folks. Uh, since we're talking about 2023, January 27th of 2023, it's up since that point 1,120%. Okay, big move. Um, now it this is where it started to to move up when it got above and you can see that big move and it's been staying above on the weekly. On the daily chart, there's been a little bit more um volatility. We've had some pullbacks. We've had some just a lot of noise. But, uh, right now in this particular state, Nvidia is looking actually quite bullish. And the reason I say that is because price is above the tenkinen, the keensen, the nine, the 26. The cloud itself has turned bullish. The synchro span A, that light color blue line is crossed above the synchro span B. And the chico spam, the lagging line here, the current price projected 26 periods ago is above the candle 26 periods ago. All right, that's the key thing. That's what we're looking for. And the ADX here, that's the um that represents momentum essentially when that momentum is increasing and simultaneously the green line is above the red line. That's actually quite bullish. So, we haven't taken out the highs here though yet from May 14th of this year. The highs uh for Nvidia were 23654. We're currently at 22501. You can see a little double bottom pattern right here. You can see how Nvidia found support at the 200 day moving average a couple of times and then bounced right off that and broke right through that cloud once again. And now it's off to the races again. So, that's why I think, you know, there's a higher probability that the semiconductor stocks are going to do well. It's also reflected in SMH as I'll show you guys in a few moments. Uh although it doesn't have a blue flag, it's getting closer and closer to it. SCHW, the Charles Schwab Corporation, financial services sector, very strong chart here on the daily even though it was down43%. You can see how price has been steadily moving up. Here's a weekly chart as well. You can see again price is above the moving averages. The other thing that you also want to make sure is that the green line is above the red line, meaning the 9 period has to be above the 26 period. All right. And there's the lagging line above price and the cloud itself has turned bullish. You got to look into the future cloud 26 periods into the future uh to see where that is at. I've talked about how that's calculated. You can check out my prior video if you'd like to get more information about the Ichimoku indicator. Uh Apple. All right. Now, this is the first stock that does not have a blue flag, and that's because there's something technically wrong uh with it. And I've already previewed all these, by the way. So, um, that's why I was able to identify those two as the top ones. Here's the weekly chart. Okay, two weeks now we're under the nine period for Apple. It's still above the cloud. Overall, it's looking pretty good. But on the daily chart, you can see that pullback these last few weeks. All right, so it's holding under the moving averages. We also had a negative crossover here. So, I'd hold off on Apple basically. I wouldn't be buying or adding new positions. You can certainly manage this trade. you can, you know, and certainly would be more of a hold type position if you have a position already in Apple. Uh, of course, everyone can make their decision about when to exit based on your risk tolerance levels. Um, some have higher than than than others, right? But the the bottom line is that I personally at this particular moment, I wouldn't be adding positions here in Apple because as you can see, we've gapped down. We made a little bit of a high here and then dropped some more. And now we're just kind of holding under the moving averages. And take a look below here. The directional movement index. The red line is above the green line. That's also not bullish. Okay. All right. Let's let's skim through these now that you understand all the rules and what I'm looking for in a chart. Hopefully, this is going to be a lot easier. We won't have to go through all the details in every single one of these charts. And I'm going to get through these really quickly. Okay, here's Amazon. As you can see, it's currently under the nine period. Overall, I like the chart on the daily, but let's look at the weekly. The weekly is very bullish, too. The only thing again, it needs to get back above that 9 period, but otherwise, I like this chart. DR AM, that's Round Hill Memory ETF is still inside the cloud. That's also basically when you're in equilibrium, you know, like stock basically when it reaches and enters the cloud. If it's above it and drops into it, that's generally not bullish. That's bearish because it leads to a pullback. But what's happened in this particular one is that if you notice there's a trend line there that was broken. Okay. So now it's up. It's basically breaking above this little high here. We've got a higher low here. So we've got like an ascending triangle pattern right there that's been broken and it's entered the cloud. So it's looking more and more bullish. If you look down below the directional movement index also confirms that. But the problem is we still have a bearish cloud. And so until all of this starts to really um you know until price gets above the cloud, I personally wouldn't be adding positions yet, but it's things are improving. So you certainly don't want to be shorting, okay, betting against it. Um Google is under the cloud. I'd skip that one obviously, okay? It's currently in a bearish um scenario here on the daily. The Chico span, remember what I mentioned earlier, how the white line should be above price. It's under so that's bearish. And so the only positive here that I see here is that the future cloud is bullish. Tenkinson is above Keeunen, meaning the green line is above the red line. All right, so I skipped Google for now. The weekly chart on Google is still kind of, you know, under the nine period. It's just moving sideways for we're talking about like a couple months now. It's just sideways movement here for Google. IGV has recently broken through the cloud, but the future cloud is bearish on the weekly. All right, so again, I wouldn't be adding here. daily chart, you can see it pulled back and closed under the nine period down 2.05. MAGS, MAGS, which is the MAG 7 ETF, two days now under the 9 period. I'd hold off on this particular ETF at this point. Not all the MAG 7 stocks are doing well. Here's Meta for example. You can see that it's pulling back, dropping further, down three and a half% on the daily chart. It's looking bearish. It's under that 200. I'd skip Meta. Microsoft just uh today dropped 3.04%. It had a nice little pop up here. Gapped above the cloud above the 200. It moved to approximately made about a 17% move in just like 11 days. Okay. But ju but from I'm talking about from the opening price here but now it's dropping. Okay. So I profit taking seems to be taking place here. By the way, notice another thing here with the directional movement index. You'll also see a lot of things getting confirmed. Like for example, the momentum. If it if the white line is moving up, that means the momentum is still strong. The second you start seeing it move sideways and then starts to drop as you see here, that tends to lead to a potential pullback. Now, it could be short-lived. It could come down, maybe retest that 26 period, and then take off from there. But right now, I would hold off on Microsoft. Let's wait for a better buying opportunity. MTUM momentum factor ETF is starting to look more and more bullish. The cloud is still bearish though. Price is still inside the cloud, but we did have a positive crossover here. We've also broken through a trend line. I mean, you know, if you've seen enough of these charts over time, I can I don't even need to draw these these trend lines anymore. I know that a trend line has been broken right there and now we're basically moving up. Okay, so we broke through this uh ascending triangle pattern. I'd hold off on MTUM though still nonetheless even though it's starting to look more and more bullish down below here with the directional movement index. Okay, MU guys, let's look at Micron Technology. It's inside the cloud also showing some strength recently and it too broke through a trend line. Do you see that trend line right there? Okay, so now it's starting to show a little bit more strength. It broke through this uh high it looks like right there briefly. Let's see. Did it? Yeah. And uh the cloud is still bearish though. So not everything is perfect, but I'm starting to like mic around more and more. Here's the weekly chart. You can see that it popped above the 9 period this week. We'll know for sure where this candle is or basically uh where it closes on Friday. So we still have another 4 days uh for this candle to materialize. And so we can't really trust it 100% until that actually happens. Um SMH, same thing. Do you see what I'm saying? So that's why I'm saying semiconductors are starting to show a lot more strength now because you can see it's holding above that 9 period on the weekly chart. So these are weekly candles each one representing a week. And here's a daily chart a positive crossover. You know the chica span has been moving up steadily. The cloud is still bearish though. Okay. But a trend. So there's a lot of mixed information is what's going on here. As you can see that sorry about that. You can see that tren that uh um downward channel has been broken this week today. It's a it's like a daily level. Okay. SNDK that Sandis Corporation re-entered the cloud. That's a bullish sign, but it's inside the cloud. So, I'd hold off. All right. Still have a bearish cloud here. Tesla is still under the cloud. It's been under the cloud for a while. Look what's happening now. It's basically had a move from this point here, July 29th. It's moved up about 13.7%. But look where it's finding resistance. And there are some reversal type candles that are forming. A dogee, a red spinning top, you know, one right after the other. That's not positive. Okay, if you guys are unfamiliar with candlesticks, you guys can can learn about those. Um, I have a cheat sheet that you can utilize. Um, go to my X page. All right, I'm under at BlueCloud Trader and scroll down a little bit and under you'd have to go to Oh, did they move things around a little bit? Hold on one second. I had to pause for a second just to to check and see what's going on here. Um, it looks to me like the highlights tab has been removed by Twitter by X.com. Let's see where else it might be. Okay, so I paused again and was able to find the candle pattern reference sheet as well as the chart patterns right next to it. And I basically what I've done is I put them at the very very top. I pinned them up here so you can find them when you get onto the page. But uh what I was just talking about was the bearish spinning top. There it is. Okay. Um this is a shooting star. That's another reversal type candle. If you see it after a move up, that's bearish. All right. So, here's some patterns that you might want to also um check out and and memorize. But as far as candlesticks go, this part right here is really important. Check out the middle part of this uh candle pattern reference sheet. All right, let's get back now. So, Tesla, it's holding up above 33724. That's a level that I be I'd be watching very closely. It's based on these prior lows here. Let's see. XLE broke through this trend line um back on let's see that was on August 10th and since that point it's actually moved up 4.7%. Energy stocks obviously are you know looking the strongest as far as I'm concerned um due to what's going on in the Middle East and there's a higher likelihood that the oil prices are going to unfortunately go up for us for you know gas prices and whatnot as this uh continues this uh this whole ordeal. But like yeah, the the technicals look really good here on the daily and on the weekly chart. Look at that big candle from last week. And now we're just seeing a continuation to the upside. Financials XLF. Here's the weekly chart pulling back a little bit down 0.98%. That's a weekly chart. Looks great uh for financials still even though it was down a little bit today. Here's a daily chart. Um this was the first day where it closed under the 9 period since um July 22nd. So sometimes price will will close under and then the next day it might pull back a little more and then recover right away. So as long as it happened here, it happened here and now it's happening again. The question is will it also break through the 26 period? That's that's a really, you know, they call that the baseline. All right, the conversion line, the baseline. So we'll see. We'll see. Uh but overall, I like XLF still. I don't see problems here quite yet, right? And by the way, um you know, you look at a trend, we can draw a trend line here from these two little candles. We go straight up. You can see that we're still kind of like right on that. We're right on that trend line. So, we'll see if it can hold up. All right, let's keep going, guys. Now I'm going to show you guys the second clip from CNBC uh the halftime report and then right after that you'll see Josh Brown on closing belt and then I'll do more technical analysis in the last segment and so stay tuned for that. All right, welcome back. Let's talk Walmart reiterated by today 150 is the target at DA Davidson. Company reports earnings on Thursday. There's the name. Let's get a little bit wider chart if we could gang. Please see what the stock's done year to date. If you can show me that, please. >> You can see 3 months down 12 something% year- to- date eaked out 3%. >> Off what was last quarter a a really solid print. It was a good earnings report. Uh I I think investors became troubled when management spoke about the effects of inflation. I I don't I don't think that language is going away and this report and they're going to talk about the effects of inflation once again. I also think valuation got the best of both Walmart and Costco. It reached into the mid-50s. It's pulled back now maybe not enough. Um, what would I like to see as an owner of Walmart? I'd like to see them deliver on e-commerce growth somewhere near 30%. I'd like to see them uh deliver on advertising growth near 40%. That'll make me comfortable that the business is still in good condition. Now, while some will move to the sidelines, we'll maintain positioning, and I think it's a pause that ultimately refreshes, I don't know if you're going to get the refresh that is sustainable beyond this earnings report. I think you maybe get a reflex bounce back up into the mid120s. Be careful with that because you still have the inflation language lingering and the valuation argument. guys, if you can um in the control room, if you can make a give me a Target versus Walmart year to date because it's been a Target story. >> I mean, Target, what's Target up? 55% so far. >> Okay. So, it it it's been a >> But there's a lot of questions as to whether that bounce back is simply a bounce that's not that's not sustainable, but it it had to bounce off a bottom of somewhere. Whereas the outperformance, I think if you were to look at this from a much longer drawback would be no comparison, Walmart blowing past Target in terms of share performance. Yeah. And now it looks exactly the opposite. I mean, part of it is there was kind of only one way for Target to go, >> right? >> Uh but they they report earnings this week too, by the way, on Wednesday with TJX, which you own. >> I I I think Target's down 37% in the last 5 years. Walmart's up triple digits. I think it was an idiosyncratic recovery related to Target that maybe the business was not going to implode, which was what the anticipation ultimately was. Um, you mentioned TJ TJX that has been a another really good position for us. You've seen strong revenue growth up around 7%. And again, the thing to remember with Walmart, with Costco, with TJX, not Target, is market share capture. market share capture in an environment with higher oil prices and higher inflationary pressures. They have the ability being big box retailers to have that scale. Costco hasn't traded well either by the way. Well, Costco valuation standpoint, right? >> Valuation trading in in the same possible way. So, I like TJX. I like Ross stores. I like both of those because of the offpric nature. I think Walmart and Costco long-term. I own Costco personally. I think you're fine there. I'm just arguing that in the near term, you have this valuation obstacle in front of you and you have management which is absolutely going to site inflationary challenges. >> Give me Regeneron guys real quick. Uh please where's that stock trading? Uh >> you're 52 week >> so at 810. So Link had it before at 641 was their target. They're they're they're now coming up to the this universe in terms of price. uh acceleration 824 is their new target. >> What do you think about that one? >> So, this is a a company that has the ability to really rebuild. If you pull the lens back over the last 5 years, Scott, you're going to see in August of 24, the stock was somewhere around $1,200. Uh the stock fell precipitously. The eye care business ran into some challenges. Offsetting that more recently has is the collaboration they have with Santa. That's been a positive catalyst that's kind of restarting the interest in owning this name once again and the momentum which presented itself two quarters ago and that's the reason why we took ownership of it. Many of these traditional uh bio pharmaceutical companies that are more pharmaceutical now have had the similar track trajectory. So it's true with Amgen, it's true with Vertex. And my point on this is all three of those companies are now rallying strongly. They have decent valuations. They've got good pipelines. They've got good science behind them. I think this is a space to be. Vertex is my selection. >> And by the way, Regeneron, don't don't hear Regeneron and think extreme valuation. This is a big valuation for this company. >> Yeah. Is that what people normally do? >> I think a lot of people when they think of exposure to biotech, they think of the extreme valuation. Uh but to Jimmy's point, in the case of names like Amgen and Regeneron, that's not the case. It's reasonable valuation. >> Franco, Micron, Western Ditch, Seagate. >> Here we go. momentum. >> The love affair begins once again. Look, I think one of the catalysts was the capex for sure and we talked about when the mag 7 reported the derivative effect was going to be inmemory and AI data center buildout names if the capex was there and I think that's what you have. You also have a market where look, it's August. It's a quieter market. That doesn't mean that the HFTs and active traders are not participating. They are and they're gravitating towards where they could find the volatility and the volatility right now is very isolated and it's isolated in these names. >> Jimmy, >> well, uh Joe and I own Micron and uh free cash flow at Micron next year is going to be about 130 billion. Couple of years ago it was around 20 billion. And that's what's moving the stock. Once you get past the deleveraging that happened in July into early August, situational awareness, the Cosby, all of that stuff. Now we're focused on fundamentals. Tremendous cash flow. They're going to be buying back shares six times earnings. Yeah. >> Yeah. I mean, Adam Parker's talked about this stock doubling from here. Weiss. >> Yeah. I It's finally above where I sold it, Micron. Um, and it does have legs. I didn't think it would be the top where I sold it. Um, but I have no regrets. I put the money elsewhere and I'm doing well. So, that's how I look at it. >> Okay, maybe you should get back in. He did it his way. No regrets. >> Nothing's out of the question, Joe. Nothing's out of the question. I'll look at my turnover momentum factor and make a decision. >> I like that. All right. Regrets had a few. Yeah, I kind of, you know, mashed it up there. Regrets or justification? You call it what you want. >> Jimmy, we don't do Sinatra. >> We'll do finals next. >> All right. 3:00 Eastern today on the closing bell. Josh Brown will be with me. Chris Heisy, Marco, Shanali Bassik, and Megan Shu. And I hope you'll join me as well. We'll track this market right into the finish. Steve Weiss, what's your final trade? >> Cisco. I bought it last week and I like the setup right here, right now. I think it's going to move higher. >> Wow. All right, Jimmy, you have that? >> I do. I like Cisco here. I applauded Steve for that last week. I do very much so. >> Bought it on the dip. It had a post earnings breakdown. He bought it, picked it up on the cheap. Good job, Shener Energy. For me, I'm violating Josh Brown's rule of never having a final trade that's in the red. But dips are to be bought in this name. >> Okay. Uh, and then the IDU, which is red today, is who? >> Utilities. That's me. Broad data center growth, Scott. And self-funding balance sheets in the in the utility sector. Get excited. >> No chance. That's going to be me. >> How about I'll take MC. >> How about Merc? Why? >> I have Merc breaking out above its June 2024 high. I think this is $150. >> All right, great stuff. I'll see everybody for the closing bell. >> All right, guys. Thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wner live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make or breakout begins with the record run for the bulls and the skyhigh level some say stocks are poised now to reach. We'll discuss with our experts if that's possible over that final stretch. Here's the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. We're mostly red as you know. Chips though a standout. Nice gains today from Mike Pron SK Heinix and Marll. There you go. Nvidia is also green about a week before it reports earnings. Had a really nice run lately. Otherwise, industrials and energy have been the bright spots in an otherwise red tape today. It does take us to our talk of the tape. It's three weeks in counting for the S&P's winning streak. So, how long can this momentum last? Let's welcome in our headliner today, CNBC contributor Josh Brown. He's the CEO of Rid Holtz Wealth. It's good to have you here for a rare appearance on Closing Bell. >> I know. Well, when uh when the market calls, I answer. I don't know. >> I guess so. And the markets are calling. Like I said, three straight weeks. VIX is the you know, on Friday it was the lowest it's been all year. Yard Denny says 10,000 by the end of the decade's possible. Evercore today says 9,000's possible in the next 12 months. I mean that gives you the kind of optimism that is being exuded really everywhere it feels. >> Yeah. And you know the negatives are very wellsighted by now. Everyone understands that people are bullish. And I know there's this sort of like knee-jerk thing where well if everyone's bullish I better be on the other side. That really only works at major turning points for the most part. You want to you want the safety of numbers and you want to be part of these record setting bull markets because if you're not, you can't catch up. Returns uh the returns come from markets like these. We have a lot long periods of time where the market does nothing. You have to stick around for the moments like these. You can't all of a sudden get bullish because the market runs up 20%. So, um, the big picture here is if you knew nothing about what the market did this year, but I just told you 84% of S&P names have reported so far and profits are going to grow 32.2% year-over-year. And I said, what what would you say the market should do? You would say it should be acting pretty much exactly the way it's acting right now. >> Okay. Then put on top of your Sunday that you're you're scooping out, u gross margins, right? th those numbers are are amazing. The the revenues that we're seeing are amazing. So, there are a lot of different things that that look and taste pretty good in in this market. >> So, when you talk to the people that have been bearish for most of the last 16 17 years, the thing that they've repeatedly said was that um earnings earnings would mean revert because profit margins would be unsustainable at 10 or 11%. And here we are at 15. So, um we still haven't had the rever. We're still waiting for that reversion. um in the era that we're in, the way that earnings are are growing, it's coming from a very specific source. It's coming from technology and very hard to predict when the cycle ends. We know it ultimately ends, but there have been people that have been waiting year after year after year and it just doesn't seem to be happening. >> Yeah. I see this. Look at what we're we're seeing now. Okay, we're looking at the the the yield curve basically right on your on your on your screen and the bottom 531 on the 30-year. >> Yeah. Yeah, at 5:20 when Fed Chair Worsh was giving his last news conference in what was a decidedly more hawkish event, um the market started selling off as the 30-year hit 520. We're like, "Wow, look, look at that. That that's a much more hawkish take on the Fed." And here we are, as we say, at 531. Jonathan Kinsky has a note out today said equity markets not prepared for 6%. Now, I don't know if we're going to 6%. But the point of bringing it up is to ask you at what point is that an issue? >> So it could be a temporary issue but I think it would end up being met with buying. And I spent an afternoon two weeks ago with Edard Denny and Edard Denny coined the term literally invented it bond vigilantes. He doesn't seem to be terri terribly worried about that this year. His year-end target for the S&P 500 is 8,000. Um if Ed's not worried about bond vigilantes, I'm not overly worried. I do agree though that there would be some new volatility coming into the market if people all of a sudden get spooked. But as always with these things, it's more about the rate of acceleration than the actual level itself. I'd also point out the 1990s, one of the best decades for stocks of all time. The average interest rate on the 10ear was 5%. Like we can live we can live through it because we have before. >> Well, you're saying what you said is right though. It's not the level, it's the speed in which you go from one level to to the other. Of course, you don't you don't want to see something in the bond market that shocks people, but to just talk about an abs absolute level in the absence of the the causal, you know, the reasons why we're at that level is, I don't think, helpful for investors. >> Speaking of levels, as long as earnings remain at these levels, >> Yeah. >> which are knock your socks off amazing. Everybody can agree with that. And it's no longer just a tech story. It's broadened substantially. if you look at the percentage of beats and what have you. So, as long as we remain delivering these earnings, why should the market do anything but what it's doing? >> You know, it's funny. A lot of people were complaining about the nature of the earnings growth in the 201 decade because they said, "Oh, it's it's engineered. It's buybacks. It's buybacks. It's buybacks." That's not part of the story this year. Not only is it not buybacks, but companies are actually going into debt to do even more capex spending. If you had rewound the clock and told the buyback truthers, hey, we're going to have another bull market that'll look just as good as this one, but instead of companies shrinking their float, um, we're actually going to see them go out and borrow money or issue secondary uh, shares of stock and and invest directly back into the economy. Will you be bullish then? They would all say yes, and none of them are bullish now. So when you when you look at your menu and you know where I'm going um here >> of the kind of stocks you want to have Yeah. >> you pick what you say is a porter house. It's a strategy that you have at your firm. You talk about it a lot on halftime. I don't want to take for granted that people who are watching this now know what that is. So what kinds of stocks work and make sense in this kind of environment. What is that? So our original research into the best stocks in the market, the premise was we want to stay on the right side of trends. We want to have a way where we can own the market leaders but have there be a built-in risk management function so that when leadership changes or there are whipsaws or a trend just literally comes to an end and a new trend takes over. We're not sitting with yesterday's leaders hoping for them to come back. We have that game plan and it's quantitative and it's rules-based. And um we took that idea and built the Porterhouse strategy which right now has 50 stocks in it. It's very concentrated. Um, but the goal is to be in the SanDisks, be in the Microns and the Western Digitals and the Klas, but not be in them naked, not be in them with no answer for when we sell. Um, by the same token, we also don't want to have extraordinarily high turnover because remember, we're a wealth management firm and taxes are a really big part of the net returns that investors receive. And it does no good to be whipsaw every every week or every day or reacting to intraday noise. >> So you're not afraid to play in the momentum sandbox obviously if you have the kinds of stocks that you just said but you're trying to offset it with things that are not going to be potentially as volatile as those could be frankly at any moment which is one of the characteristics of this market that we've been in. those kinds of stocks in that kind of factor have, you know, had a significant reset at points and this market has been resilient through it. >> Yeah. Because you when you have a stock that goes up 800%. It could be in a 30% draw down and still statistically be in an uptrend. This is like one of the hardest things to do if you're just sitting there manually trying to select when do I buy SanDisk, when do I sell it, when do I buy it back. So having rules in advance doesn't mean you won't lose or you won't be wrong or you won't be early, you won't be late, but it takes a lot of that sort of uh it takes a lot of sort of that um guesswork and and uh inconsistency out of out of the picture. And Sandis is a really great example. It's had massive draw downs this year and yet it's been on our list of the best stocks in the market since last year. has never come off because that longerterm picture not just technicals but the the growth rate etc has been intact. So um we traded 10 days ago so I could talk about this publicly in the porter house portfolio uh over the last month we sold out of Verdive we sold out of BWX Technologies. People that are in momentum trades or people that are playing the AI capex story they know these tickers very well. Um the long-term trended weakened short-term price action broke. They're out of the portfolio. It's not a judgment. Are these good companies or not? That's not the goal here. The goal was to make money. Uh Regent's Financial was a sale. Ford was a sale. These had been great stocks up until recently. What did we buy? Rockwell Automation, which obviously the robotics and automation theme. Oventive, East West Bank Corp. Citizens Financial. So that's an industrial and oil company and two financials. So it's not just about AI capex, it's not just about tech. um the portfolio will own stocks in every sector. And the reason that's so important in a tape like right now, 11 out of 11 sectors have beaten beginning of season growth estimates through the period that we're at in the quarter. 10 of 11 sectors are posting posting a year-over-year increase in profits. There's money being made away from AI. How do you find those stocks? How do you end up in those stocks before your friends and neighbors are talking about them at the barbecue? This is the goal. This is what we're working on specifically with that porter house sleeve and client portfolio. >> It's appropo that that we we have spent some time talking about you know the portfolio but also in general the fact that chips are having a pretty decent day at least memory names are. Oliver Renick is at SIBO in Chicago. He's tracking the options activity which is pretty substantial isn't it today. >> It's massive Scott. In fact it's been one of the most wild days for semiconductor options tradings we've seen in a while. Volumes are exploding again in favorites from the first half of the year. SanDisk, Micron all seeing massive call option volumes to the point that upside calls and some experies are multiples more expensive than the equivalent puts to the downside. DRAM the ETF is doing twice its average 30-day volume and the ratio of calls to puts in SMH is the most bullish since April. might sound familiar, but the single biggest trade in the entire market today is a gargantuan $130 million purchase of in the money 630 strike puts in the SMH. It's a synthetic short expiring in November. For perspective, that's more than a third of the entire ETF premium today in a single trade, which is almost four times bigger than the next biggest trade in the market. So basically for investors, the question here is who do you go with? the crowd where flows have been getting more bullish since the situational awareness blowup or this specific single contrarian a giant whale putting on I think what is the biggest trade I've seen in the fund all summer >> that's a great look Oliver thank you so much that's Oliver Renick okay let's bring in our panel now Merryill and Bank of America's Chris Heisy and I Capitals Chanali Basic Josh Brown of course is is still with us guys it's great to have you here um >> it's funny that Oliver mentions you know what do You do do you, you know, sort of ride with the crowd, Chris? There's there's a big crowd of bulls. Is it too big? >> There's a big crowd of bulls until something hits the tape that they don't like and they kind of walk it back a little bit. Josh hit it on before. There's been something on everyone's list every year. And we've been doing this a long time and it seemed like the list was smaller decades ago. Now it's it doesn't matter what it is. It just comes in there. And the bear camp never points to the denominator. The denominator is promo profit momentum. And that's what the crowd is following. And until that story and that narrative changes, it's going to be very hard to be a contrarian. And a some people like to be a contrarian just to be a contrarian. And they find little bits and pieces to fit that story rather than focusing on what is visible, what is working. And again, you mentioned the 5% 30-year yield. >> Mhm. >> What happens when we hit the six? They said the same thing when before we hit five. Stocks are not going to like five. Stocks are not going to like four. And Josh talked about the average 10ear yield being around 5% during the '90s. And the yield curve was pretty good steepness there. And now we survived going from 0% front end rate to five to 3 and 3/4. And yet there's still a complaint out there about oh my goodness. >> You know who likes five? >> The $9 trillion sitting in money market funds and and deposit accounts. The boomers really like five. Taking no risk earning two to three points above the rate of inflation. I think uh five is not the negative that it once was because of how much cash there is in the system. Perversely, we actually saw a rise in rates generate more spending on things like travel and second homes because that people have cash in an account they expect no return on cuz for 15 years rates were zero. All of a sudden that became a geyser of new cash. They actually don't know where to put it. So this idea that 5% was going to break the market. >> I knew at four it wasn't going to be true. I mean, the most boring thing in the world is to say that if you put your money in a high yield savings account at the beginning of the year, you're actually doing a very good job this year. But, you know, that is to your point money in the bank. Where it doesn't do well though is for highly levered companies and I don't mean the AI borrowers. I mean the host of companies that have been extending and pretending. So, I think that the flock to quality here makes sense and it's part of the reason you're seeing the broadening. >> You know, there was a note out today. I forgot who it who it was by. It's not that important. But the note itself, the crux of it was it's hard to be a bear. Sort of to to these guys point. It's hard to be a bear, but can we really continue to live up to these, you know, immaculate markets and expectations and earnings? Something's got to give >> risk management or not. Josh said it a little earlier. If you're managing your risk appropriately, then you can sleep at night while you're appreciating the upside here. Uh chasing momentum is a full man sport in my own opinion. you we for us we have a lot of people employing buffered strategies for this reason um you know structured investments that'll cap downside uh risk here but again it lets you stay invested Scott let's not forget how many people missed the last three years a tremendous amount of people in the market so nobody wants to miss the next leg but at the same time I would agree with Josh that there's other places to look besides where just the herd is going so if you can just take out your pencil and do the math there are some places in the market that still look cheap is the Is the next leg driven by the FOMO that Shinali is talking about? Maybe part of it's already here. Edard Denny calls it FOMO. >> Instead of FOMO, it's the earnings momentum that's driven uh driving the the whole thing. >> There are no signs that earnings momentum is going to shift from a slower growth rate to a substantially lower growth rate between now and mid 27. We can't think too far out after that cuz so many things can come into place. But we were talking about this before real quick. When are international stocks going to outperform? They have been. When are is value going to outperform growth? It has. When is small caps going to outperform large? Remember all those >> types of arguments >> they have. >> And and they have. So >> Russ's up 23%. Almost almost to double. >> But you but you to your point, you never hear people come back and say, "Yes, this is the thing I used to complain about. It's been cured by the market. I'm now bullish." They just move on to a new thing to complain about. So the people in 2024 who said it's all mag 7, it's all AI, it's all hyperscalers, those are the only stocks going up, it's too concentrated historically. When the S&P concentrates above 30% for the top 10 all the blah blah blah blah blah, that's over now. Those are not the leading stocks in the market. What's replaced it? Healthc care stocks, industrials, energy stocks are leading this year. We have utilities that are up double digits. We have retailers that are working. I don't know how, but it's true. >> What about the Russell? What about the ASB midcaps? >> Right. So, but do these people come back and say, remember all that concentration I was scaring the hell out of you about 40% lower? Well, it's not concentrated anymore. I'm bullish. It'll never happen. You know what they're talking about instead? Yen carry trade. What color tide did Kevin Walsh wear? They they will not come back and say that thing I told you was bad. Now it's fixed. Okay, I'm I'm happy. >> Are you a believer in the continued broadening story that's in the market? >> Absolutely. And you look around and there's still more room to run. The outperformance is recent, which means that, you know, even in the last month, the S&P equal weight still did not outperform the NASDAQ or the Socks, which tells me that it's still been relatively left behind even in recent days. >> I thought I I love I still think back to the John Waldron comments of a couple weeks ago now to Andrew. um I believe it was out in Aspen where he talked about the broadening of the earnings growth >> that now it's you know you look average by sector it's like more than 14%. >> Mhm. So it's a broadening earning story thus it's a broadening ear a broadening market performer and until that changes and maybe it even gets even better as some of these you know beneficiaries from AI show even greater earnings growth because of all the benefits that they're now getting. >> That's right. That's right. It used the argument was well there's only few that are going to benefit from the revenue side and we're bet we're betting on all these people having an ROI on what's all but spent. You cannot measure productivity today the way we used to measure productivity. You measure it in margins. And if margins stay wide, it's doing its trick. My last point here, I I'll say this. When you when you look at the broadening out and and everything, the story was small caps had bad earnings before. Negative earnings. Now all of a sudden you go from negative to positive debt. Second derivative. That's a big deal. Same thing in emerging markets. You know, they're big oil importers. They're still doing well. Um, fiscal deficits are everywhere in the world. You could look at it as a negative or you could say that's what produces 6, 7, 8% nominal growth which feeds the revenue line and that's why you have the broadening out. >> All right, we'll uh we'll leave it there. That was great. It's good to have you guys here on set. Thanks for being here. You stick around. Okay, we're going to take a break. You're not going anywhere. Don't leave. All right. Coming up next, how do you view both of these companies? This race to go public. um you know what brain drain some of the departures >> the difference between the way these two companies are perceived >> so I said last week we've never had trillion dollar startups before and as a result the level of scrutiny that these companies are getting prior to going public is something brand new is currently attending the Sam Alman School of Public Relations doesn't appear that he's having a lot of fun went through this last year Daario's turn is this here. These guys uh their messaging is not ready for prime time. It's sort of okay. We like a little bit of eccentricity in our tech geniuses. It's also sort of crazy. Here you have a guy last year starts going on podcasts and making public statements like for example 50% of all white collar jobs will disappear and then everybody should fund this thing that I'm building that's going to bring that about. So he stopped doing that. Now the debate has shifted. Gavin Baker and others are talking about, "Let me get this straight. Your pitch is that AI should be heavily regulated, but we know what happens when you do that. It creates regulatory capture and monopolies." Famously, people used to worry about Facebook because there'd be more regulation. I would come on the air and say, "No, you don't understand. The more regulation, the better because now no one can afford the compliance costs except for Meta." And as a result, you won't see any new social networks. And that's exactly how it played out. So is Anthropic pursuing this sort of public policy push where they say uh openweight models, open- source models are too dangerous. It should there should be a vetting process anytime a new model comes along. And then people will look at that and say, "Yeah, we get what you're doing. You're trying to capture the whole industry and stop startups from coming out with their own products because all the profits are in big companies paying you for access to Claude." So that's the debate right now. I think for investors it's probably not important. I think what investors should be focusing on is the news that we got today. A 14-fold increase in second quarter revenue over last year. Positive net operating income philanthropic, >> right? 11.5 billion in quarterly revenue. And anecdotally, our event future proof is next uh uh next month out in Huntington Beach, California. Anthropic is coming. They have an amazing guy running their asset and wealth management business. His name is Peter Nolan. They'll be making announcements with like lots of companies there. I don't even know who his counterpart is at OpenAI. >> What does So, what does that tell you about what they want their reach to be and where they see the multifacets of their >> bigger business going? >> Okay. The the multifacets of their bigger business are going in one direction upstream. This is uncomfortable for incumbents, but they will be making and selling software. They are not going to be a company that lives and dies based on having a model that is 1% faster than someone else's model. That's not actually a business. The actual business will be figuring out the profitability between compute and selling an enterprise product. Not everybody's going to like that. Alex Karp kind of uh rang the alarm about this on Squawk the other day, but that is 100% what will happen. And it has to happen because if you're just in the business of selling tokens, tokens are in mass deflation. Um, and and it's really the profitability will acrew to the companies that figure out what will enterprises pay for those tokens, not just who will they buy the tokens from. So the compute side of the business is going to be a little bit more industrial. The thing that Anthropic's going to do, and I think they'll do it really well, is they're going to find ways to take the power of their model, productize them, and sell them to companies. And again, that will not be popular in Silicon Valley amongst the incumbent software companies, but it's almost inevitable that this is where things are going to go. >> That was awesome. And that was a treat for us. I >> open AI needs to figure it out too, which will be the next >> that's the the next battleground will be product, not compute, not tokens, not LLM efficiency. It's going to be what will people buy? >> Don't be a stranger on this show. Okay. >> I love the show. My favorite show. >> Good having you. Thank you. >> All right. That's Josh Brown. >> All right. So, from those clips that we just saw, let's take a look at some more stocks and ETFs. There's 12 right here. And the top four start off with Amgen Healthcare Sector, right? It's in the drug manufacturers, major drug manufacturers. Here's the weekly chart. Very bullish. Broke through this 39129 level about three weeks ago. Everything was looking very bullish as far as the the indicator, the Ichimoku indicator, right? And um it's looking good on the weekly, so looking good on the daily chart. It passes the test. Certainly a stock that I would consider adding to my portfolio. Uh Merc also looks great here. Weekly chart and daily chart very bullish. Regnon Farm Inc. it's in the biotech industry healthcare. You can see here on the daily chart looking very strong up.3% today. And on the weekly chart as well it actually is holding up right above that 200 day moving average. Uh there is some resistance uh that it appears to be um finding though. Let me just go ahead and throw that trend line right there. So there's the high uh 8211. We're going to color that light blue to represent the weekly time frame. I typically color weekly levels blue and daily levels red so it's easier to identify. Um what I like about this chart is the fact that we have a higher low here on the weekly from this low. So we've got a nice uptrend going on and we just need to break that 8211 in my opinion. Um, once we get above that this prior high here, that's going to be very bullish for RGN. Here's the daily chart. Notice how price has been kind of slowing down here and just kind of moving sideways. So, we'll see what can happen. Same thing with the momentum down below the directional movement index. Like I mentioned earlier, the momentum is strong, but then when it comes close to a level of resistance, a prior high like the one I showed you, you know, price can sometimes take a little breather, you know, and collect itself before it decides whether or not it's going to continue to the upside or will it break through and uh, you know, the bears start taking control. That's what we're going to wait and see. But right now, I wouldn't be adding position here because of its it's um how close it is to the 8211. It's literally just about 2% away. You know, that's not a really good uh target. Uh XLV Healthcare looks good. It's pulled back and created a nice little bullish spinning top after the pullback. So, when we see one of these types of candles after a pullback, that's very bullish. Daily chart and here's the weekly chart. Granted, the um it did still close down 0.19%, but I'm overall more bullish than I am bearish with XLV. The rest of these did not get a blue flag, meaning there's something technically wrong. Let's take a look at Cisco. Yeah, it's entered. It gapped down back on uh what day was that? Thursday, last week, August 13th, and it's still inside the cloud. I would hold off on Cisco, obviously. EM is the emerging markets ETF. That one came up to this 6815 level. Well, it goes back to this date here, May 11th, that prior high. And it's interesting how it came close and then created a gravestone dogee. That's what they call that specific candle right there. Let me see if I can find it. That's right here. You see this pattern? It's basically when you see, let me go ahead and draw it on here. Um, a wick and a flat body at the at the bottom. If you see a flat body, what that represents is that the opening price and closing price basically are the same level. Okay? Uh with the understanding candles here, the opening price on a green candle is down here. The body of the candle, that's the opening price at 9:30. And over here, it's at 4 p.m. That is the um uh closing price. The wick represents how high price moves throughout the day, the upper wick, and the lower wick represents how low price went. Okay? And so if it's a green candle, obviously the opening was here and this was the closing. If it's a red candle, the opening was is at the top and then it closed down here. And but it's the wicks still represent the low of the day and the high of the day. All right, quick little mini lesson there on candlesticks. You know, there's a lot of people here that are never even heard of Japanese candlesticks. I I I get it. You know, there was a time I didn't know anything about it. But let me let me say this. They are a visual representation of what's happening behind the scenes between the bulls and the bears, you know, the basically the buyers and the sellers. So there's a battle taking place every single day and someone wins and price is either going to be to move up or it's going to move down. And we can see it visually. You can also see the prior days where the history of price movement spit, you know, and you can do the same thing here on the weekly chart. That's that represents the, you know, if you're looking at a weekly chart, you know, 9:30 Monday, 400 p.m. Friday. Okay, does that make sense? Over here in this red one, 9:30 on on a Monday. Here on a Friday, it closed down. So, that was a a a bad week, obviously. And then we've got patterns that can form like the bearish engulfing pattern here that led to this decline. That's when you, for example, see, you know, this like small little bullish candle followed by a large red candle that engulfs it, right? And then price, you know, there's a higher probability that price is going to pull back when an event like that happens because basically what happened in this scenario is price moved up. It, you know, moved up, it gapped up in fact, but then the bears took control and pushed the price down. Okay. Okay. And then the next day the same thing. It drops some more and then it moves sideways, drops some more. And then of course this is where the Ichimoku indicator comes into play because we can observe how price is is reacting to the actual moving averages like the 26. Notice how it's just sitting. It it keeps on closing above the red line. That's a bullish signal. When you also see a long wick at the bottom of a candle, that's also bullish. That represents a lot of buying that took place that week. and then it just continued to the upside. Now, right now on the weekly chart, we only have Monday. So, this candle is very very there's not a whole lot of data. So, Friday, you'll have a better understanding uh of where we're at with EM, but I would certainly wait a little bit longer obviously on this one. There's the weekly chart and there's a daily chart. You can see the the cloud is still bearish. It's basically telling you you know it's not not all elements of the Ichimoku are perfect. If you're looking for perfection, if you're looking for all the elements to be in the correct order on both the weekly and the daily time frame, it's the top four higher probability trades basically. All right, let's look at Ford. Ford is under the cloud. Skip that one. Okay, I wouldn't be interested in that. IDU, this is the utility sector index fund ETF. It's under the cloud. No on that one. ROS, no on Ross Stores, Inc. It's a power storage. Look at it. Declining four down 4.11%. Everything started to go bad when price got under the nine period right there. Okay. If you look over here, the red line crossed on above the green line. That's that was also another negative signal. So, that's not good. Uh, but it's pulling back. Let's look at the weekly on this one. Still holding up. So, there's a higher likelihood now that we're getting closer and closer to the 9 period on the weekly chart that maybe price will stall and create another new leg to the upside potentially. But while it's in the process of declining, I wouldn't be adding positions. I want to wait for something like this to happen right here where price starts to reverse, moves up, breaks above the nine period. Now we've got another new leg up just like we did over here. Just like we did over here. Look at that nice move right there where price got under the nine period and then from that point to that point it moved up 42.8. Wow. Let me hold on. Sorry. Let me measure that to that closing price. It moved up 42.8%. in approximately 6.9 months. Then we had a bullish engulfing pattern. It continued to move up. But my point is it can help you to sort of identify places to exit positions. Uh and you can make you know listen there's there's so many different um ways to trade the Ichimoku as far as you know some people like to add a position when there's a um a you know the moving averages are crossing you know above each other like the green line crossing above the red line. they they may not even take into account whether price is under the cloud or inside the cloud or you know there's different ways to trade it. Uh I look for the optimal way. I found that using the traditional method uh seems to work best at least for me. Here's TJX. Right now it's kind of stagnant. It's basically in a consolidation stage where it's moving sideways. I'd hold off on TJX. It's also under the moving averages. That's the weekly chart. Here's the daily chart under the cloud. Here's Walmart inside the cloud. Showing a little bit of strength recently. Um, but it's still under the 200. It's still inside the cloud. I'd hold off on that. Utilities XLU also underto the cloud. No on that one. All right. Let's take a look at the indices next because this can help give us some gu some, you know, introspection and guidance into the entire markets, right? So, the QQQ ETF, for example, broke recently above this trend line. remember uh on Thursday last week, August 13th, and it's holding up above it even though it's down.16%. I like QQQ right now. It still has a blue flag. Looks good on the daily and on the weekly chart. Still holding up. Russell 2000, which is IWM on the weekly chart. Looks good. Above 30272 on the daily chart, also above that level. I like IWM ticker symbol. Okay. I like FEZ, the Euro stocks 50. want to have some exposure to Europe. This one is still looking good. It's been sort of slowing down a little bit right here, but the ADX is still showing momentum is increasing. It's not moving sideways yet, which is good. That's a good sign. Uh let's take a look at the weekly. Yeah, I like the momentum here. Even though it's down 26%, it's not a big deal. Uh S&P 500, the SPY. Here it is on the weekly chart holding up. I like the weekly chart. Nothing negative to say on the weekly but on the daily chart today it actually price actually closed under the 9 period. What does that mean? It means that and so it it lost its blue flag from last week where it was above um there seems to be a higher favorability for this smaller midcap like the Russell 2000 and the technology stocks which is it's a lot of technology stocks in the QQQ and same thing with FEZ the Euro stocks. So the spy and the Dow which represents large cap companies, they're not doing as good, right? You can see the difference in the percentage drops here too. And let's look at the Dow Jones DIA. The Dow has been under the N period for a couple of days now. And but on the weekly chart, overall still holding up. It's not like they're breaking down significantly. There's not like a huge, you know, decline happening here. We're we're still in a nice strong uptrend overall. uh the VIX uh was up 6.46% 46% you know probably fears of what's going on in the straight of hormuz I'm guessing and as a result gold was also up 1% today so here's a weekly chart you can see the last 3 weeks gold has been moving up steadily remember this is a falling wedge and this is actually a bullish pattern guys a falling wedge let me show you this pattern right here on that cheat sheet that I showed you earlier so once you're on this page make sure you'll see a little arrow here click on that whoop and as you can see with the sound effect. It basically pops up these uh patterns. Now, where is that falling wedge? It's right up here in the top corner. Falling wedge. Bullish. Bullish. It's when we have price. It it typically you would think this is a bearish pattern because price is creating lower highs, right? and lower lows, but they're very very the way to look at it is if it's a very tight consolidated drop like that and price breaks through and then comes down even and then retests that trend line and continues up, that's even more um positive. And so that's a bullish variant. On the bearish variant, you can see it here. Okay, it's basically making higher highs, higher lows in a tight consolidated triangle, but then it breaks under and so that is something to keep in mind. So that's what we've had here. See that tight little consolidation is it's not consolidation. It's a tight pullback. All right. And now it's breaking through. Look at that candle. That breakout candle. I like that breakout candle. So my my my uh intuition is telling me and this this many years of trading is telling me like, okay, gold is probably going to start taking off soon. it's still inside the cloud. Chico spin a cylinder price. I personally have positions in specific in certain gold stocks and um you know right now they're doing quite well. So if you guys want to learn more about the positions that I'm that I have in my portfolio, you can become a member. So there's two different ways to support this channel. Uh let me just tell you real quick. If you go to my channel here, BlueCloud Trading, there's there's two ways. One, you can subscribe. It's free. free to hit that subscribe button and notification bell so that you know when I'm putting out a new video. This is timesensitive. I would recommend that you hit that notification bell. Secondly, okay, click the join button. Now, under this one, yes, there is a cost. Um, right now there's actually a promotion here, 100% off for the BlueCloud supporter. Under this level, you can request a stock or ETF be analyzed on an upcoming video. All right. under BlueCloud Trader. This is where you get access to the member onlyly videos that I do each weekend. They're usually about an hour long. I go over my entire portfolio. Okay? So, you can see the trades that I placed throughout the week. I added the stocks I closed out of. I sum, you know, do a quick sum like a summary of everything. And then I also provide new stock ideas for the upcoming week based on the strongest sectors and industries. So, I do a top- down approach. And then if you want even more BlueCloud Legend, maybe you want to get updates on my trades daily, like today for example, I posted um you know my trades, okay? BlueCloud Legend. All right. And once you become um BlueCloud Legend level member, all you need to do is just go to the posts tab, click on that, and that's where you'll find my daily posts. All right. All righty. Let's get back Let's get back to the charts. So GLD I like SLV I mean when I say I like I like what's happening here with this pattern. I like the fact that it's moving up. Um it's your decision you know would I be adding this particular ETF? No to my portfolio. Not at this point because it's still inside the cloud and I do like to adhere to my rules for entry. So, but I would say that there's a higher probability it's going to move up. And you could certainly start looking at stocks that are within GLD, right? And you know, if you're using TC2000, by the way, there's also a link for this for with a $25 coupon, it will be in the description segment section. Um, if you like the software that I'm using here, look, you let's say that I type in GLD and this pops up and I want to see what stocks are within GLD. this little thing right here right to the side. Component watch list. Actually, that one did not show up. Um, but okay, for whatever reason, I'm not sure why that didn't, but SPY, for example, if I click on the spy and it pops up, there's the 500 plus stocks in there that show up when you click on the component watch list. But you can just also look up gold stocks under the um there's a thing called the drill down segment uh section where you can go look for a sector the industry within it under basic materials you can find it there. All right. Um so we talked about gold. Silver is still you know under this 6037 level but it was up 1.86%. Okay. It's still under the cloud but it's starting to it certainly found it seems to have found a floor here. And then Bitcoin IBIT ETF also looking okay I suppose because it's holding up above this 3530 but it's under the cloud under the 26 period and the Chica spin is under price. I would hold off on Bitcoin. All right it was up 2.22%. Let's look at the daily chart. You can see it's entered the cloud. That's always a good thing when it's you know when price is under the cloud and re-enters the cloud. That's a bullish signal, but it's not a buy signal in my opinion. It's just showing that hey, the bulls are starting to to like show a little bit more and more strength. Basically, Ethereum was up 1.45%. That's this too has been sort of, you know, was under the cloud, has basically entered the cloud and has just been moving sideways, right? Um, so here we get that consolidation going on. By the way, I don't know if you guys know this, but Tom Lee's BMR holds about 5% of all Ethereum coins. Let's take a look at BMR. I'm just kind of curious to see where it's at right now. How's that doing? Oh, that's interesting. So, BMR, Bit Mine Emerion Technologies. Remember Tom Lee is the uh what is his title there? Chairman of BMR as of June 30th 2025. So, right now it's been in uptrend. And it's moved up about 44 point what is that? 44.9%. 44 46.26. Okay. From this low June 30th of this year. It's moved up quite a bit. But it also had a big pullback right as you can see right there. Um all right. So that was Ethereum and BMR. Let's take a look our members request. We've got four ERO copper. So this is the one stock that actually has a uh uh that has a blue flag because if we look at the weekly chart, what you'll notice is price is above the cloud. Price is above the moving averages. The faster moving average, the green line crossed above the red one today or this week. Um the cloud itself, the future cloud is bullish. The chica span, the white line is above price. Okay, all that is happening. So, I like what I'm seeing. I would say that there is going to be some resistance coming up right there. The high of that candle is 3980. Whoops. Double check that. 3980. So, let's make sure we get that correct amount in there. We'll color it light blue for the weekly. There we go. How far are we from there? We're about, you know, we're about 11.7% or so. So, that's good. I mean, that's not a bad target. Um, ADX is moving up. Uh, there's the weekly, there's a daily chart. And what I like about this particular pattern that you're seeing here, this is what they call a a bull flag pattern. So, price has been moving up. Whoops, wrong thing. Let's see here. Price has been moving straight up and then built a little flag right there. Okay. And so I like that and the fact that we gapped up today and continuing up and was up 3.28 tells me there's a higher probability tomorrow it's going to move up as well. So this is a nice one. Uh ELF ELF beauty incutor which is not a really strong sector but this particular stock on the daily chart looks pretty good here. I like the daily it just re popped back above the tenken here. It was under this morning and then boom, a gap basically continued up. It actually looks like it's higher probability for a bullish trade tomorrow because of what I'm seeing here. And uh what about the weekly chart still under the cloud? So you don't have confirmation on both time frames and that's that can be an issue because you know it's it's hitting its head right there at that cloud and that is a natural level of resistance like it was here. You see the pullback. So after that move up there, touch the cloud, came close to it and then dropped. So so far it's starting to look a little bit bullish as the week begins at up 2.45% but it needs to break through that cloud. Uh in my opinion against above the weekly and above the 200 honestly that's about 13% away from where we are. If you don't want to hold off, you know, hold that long, you know, you really just have to monitor this very closely and what use the daily chart. Maybe also use a two-hour chart to help with entry and exits as well. Right now, you can see on the 2 hour, it's just kind of pulling back a little bit, but it's above the cloud. P A, which is um an EMR silver. Okay. Under the gold indust um industry, but it's I think it's a combination of gold and silver if I remember correctly. Um so, let's look at this one on the weekly chart. Here it is. It's inside the cloud. inside the cloud. So, Chica spin is under price. The cloud is starting to potentially turn bearish here, but then the directional movement index is still bullish. So, we're getting multiple, you know, not a lot of confirmation here on the weekly. And then if you look at the daily chart, it pulled back. It's under the 200. Uh, this is something I wouldn't be adding a position in, but it certainly is something that is showing a little bit of strength because it's holding for the last 3 days above that 26 period. It's also still inside the cloud. There's a, you know, there's a good chance that it could uh move up since it was up 1.52% today. What about PATH UI path in the software infrastructure? Well, it was down just slightly 06%. But if you look at the cloud itself, that's bullish. The green line is above the red line. Chico spin is above price. Price is above the 200. Okay, we've broken through a very long consolidation from going back to 20 like February here of 2026. See that consolidation? So, we're above it and it's expanding now on the daily. Let's look at the weekly. On the weekly chart, it broke through the cloud uh last week on Friday. It it also for two three weeks now or two and a half weeks now we're above the 200. problem is the cloud is still bearish but you know it's it takes a little time for that cloud to uh to turn bullish. It's it want it's looking for more confirmation and it's based on specific mathematical equations like using the moving averages for the single span A. I've talked about it in the previous video if you want to check that out and the single span B. So um but I like what I'm seeing overall with PATH weekly and dailies looking pretty bullish. Um, it's relatively close to the tenants and it's not too far away from the moving average here. So, I don't see a fear of this thing like, you know, um, pulling back necessarily. So, we'll see what happens with PATH. Um, and guys, that's going to do it for this video. Again, thanks for supporting the channel. Hit the like button, the subscribe button, share this video with someone if you'd like, and uh, find out about my channel here. You can click on 10 more links or if you click on more you can read about me, my channel, all the links here. This is another link to join to become a member to get access to the portfolio and videos. Uh over here the $25 coupon for TC2000. A link for the Finn Viz Elite. My Twitter page is right there as well. If you click on this link for the 20 um TC2000, you'll this will pop up. You enter your email here and you'll see that uh you can receive a $25 coupon towards your TC2000 service courtesy of BlueCloud Trading as long as you haven't used it in the last 12 months. All right. And then there's the pricing here. Software plans, basic, premium, premium plus. If you select monthly, it's $24.99. So, you can try the basic out for free or you can upgrade to the premium for more features by paying an additional, you know, $25 because it's $49.99 a month. If you end up liking it, my suggestion would be to switch to a buy annual. Why? Because it brings down the price significantly. Um, if you pay for it two years in advance, it goes from $49.99 to 37.49 a month for the premium. Okay, well that's going to do it. Thank you guys. I will catch you all in the next video. The ichimoku guiding light. Blue cloud traing through the night. Heat. Heat.