Why The Government WON’T Let OpenAI Fail | Chris Camillo

This is literally the entirety of my life is to try to get every human on Earth into the investor class, and it's actually starting to happen. So, I invite it. I invite the criticism, but I also want people to understand that the majority of investors right now, they're just paying attention to noise. They're all part of the herd. Right? Like that's not how you generate alpha, right? That's not how you knock it out of the park. You have to be an independent thinker. Everything I see on X right now is noise. Like the easiest trade right now is just not to pay attention to the noise and just actually try to assess the ground truth in something, anything. If you can figure out the ground truth in anything and place a bet on it, you're going to win. >> I want to show you this tweet that went pretty viral on X. This person retweeted, "Admittedly, well, pissing my pants as my account was hemorrhaging. Those are the hardest trades you'll ever make, but could be the most rewarding." Please, people, don't get into a trade that makes you piss your pants. This is high-risk stuff, belongs in the sports betting {slash} prediction market bucket. Entertaining, sure, and it worked for Chris, but you're far better off just buying and holding great companies using an amount of money that won't make you lose sleep at night or piss your pants. Don't >> tell people what their account objective is or what their level for risk is. In my account that has an objective to generate outsize returns by taking concentrated levered bets on high-conviction trades, there are going to be moments where I have high conviction and I feel that the probability is high that I'm going to win, but there is some probability that I'm going to get wiped out on that trade. And in those situations, I'm a human and I'm nervous, okay? And I'm going to get nauseous, I might throw up, I might piss my pants, whatever, right? Like that is the reality of someone that manages a high-risk, high-reward account that makes high-concentration levered bets on high-conviction calls. That's not everyone, but it's me. And it's not just me. There are a lot of people out there that choose to have a separate account or a portion of their account where they want to take levered, concentrated, high-risk bets on things they believe in that they put the work in on, that they believe will end up with a good outcome, but know, because they're smart enough to know that it's far from a guarantee. And it's okay to be nervous. It's okay to crap your pants for a second, okay? While you're waiting for that earnings report to come out. Like, I don't see that as bad, but again, it's because of the type of account that I manage, okay? It's my objective. It's my risk tolerance. It's not yours, it's not that guy's, but there are a lot of people that want to do that. And like, we're allowed to, and it's not a bad thing. And then when we turn tens of thousands of dollars into tens of millions of dollars in a high-risk, high-reward account because we put in the work, hundreds and hundreds of hours on these trades, and I've been doing this for 18 years, if you don't agree with it, don't agree with it. I'm not asking you to do it. But there are a lot of people like, Chris, I would like to start with a little bit of money and put in a lot of work and take risk with a designated account, not my kids' college education, not my retirement account, right? I want to do it the right way, and I'm willing to take on that risk. And I'm it's going to bleed to some scary moments, dude. Like, there's no way of getting around that. There's just not. It's like, we're human. >> Do you worry that a small subset, or maybe actually a larger than small subset, they're not smart enough to make that nuanced decision of hey, this is a high risk bucket. And they're just going to full port into like what is Chris in that Oh, he's buying this. All right, let's go all in and they lose it. >> Yeah, I mean there's like a million ridiculous things that a person could do in the world from actual gambling on sports casinos yoloing your money on option bets. There's a bunch of imbeciles that are just will tell you to do that, right? If you're one of those people, you're likely to find them and do it, okay? And I hope you learn your lesson the hard way. It's It's not likely to be cuz they're And if they if they do it because of they're following me, I don't know what to tell you, man. You're going to If it's not me, it's someone else, right? Like But again, take even 5 minutes to do your research on me and understand who I am, why I do this, how I do it, how I frame risk, high risk, high reward in a designated account. Like dude, I'm not going to apologize for it. Like there are every one of me, there's like a million people that are doing the stupidest things in the world. Like you just can't We're We're adults, guy. I mean We're adults. If we lived our entire life worried about, you know, the degenerate gambler that's going to misinterpret something that they see out of context, then none of us should be on X talking about anything. None of us should ever talk about anything cuz someone might read one line out of context and do something crazy or stupid. And by the way, hopefully they If they do that, they learn their lesson. They don't do it 100 times over. You know, like I'm I'm not their parent, guys. Like I'm not going to stop sharing my life with the world. Like I I share what I do for a reason. I don't make money off it. We all know that. I don't have I don't do anything. I don't have courses. I don't even take sponsorships. I don't do anything. I literally share my thought patterns for the world to like poke holes in and then take his ideas, take the ideas, do their own homework, risk management, like do what they want with it. But like I don't tell people what to do with their accounts and I don't want anyone tell me what to do with my account or what I should be writing on X. >> So what's something that you see on X that is objectively noise that a lot of people believe but you were able to find the ground truth about and how did you find the ground truth? >> I think the best example of this is the CapEx story. Like it's been driving me nuts all year. So this is wild to me that we're even having this conversation cuz it it like at no other time in my life would you have companies coming out and saying we are so blown away by the demand that we are signing, contractually signing, multi-year demand for this product that we are going to go out and leverage the entirety of our balance sheet and then on top of that we're going to borrow debt because this is the biggest opportunity we've ever seen in the history of our company to compound returns on our money over the next few years. And then the And by the way, these aren't just random startups. These are like the biggest, most well-run companies in the world by teams that have historically been highly conservative when it comes to CapEx. And they're telling you this. And then you have these numbskulls who work at sell-side banks and like rando retail investors freaking out because the company is reducing their cash flow. Like that's not what these companies are supposed to be doing. Like the entire purpose of capital markets is to invest your money into entities that can take your money and do something bigger and better with it, right? That's why we're investing in these companies, right? Because they have an edge, they have access to resources and distribution and knowledge and and like that other companies don't have. Like they're they're basically leveraging their alpha right? To compound returns for us. So, we want them to do this. Like it's called a growth company for a reason. They they basically borrow money at this rate and they make money at this rate. I mean, like this is how it's always been until this year. Like it's just wild to me. So, you're saying that these people that don't know a thing about their business, they're not in these meetings where they're signing multi-year contracts with essentially every one of their companies >> they do business >> do business with, right? Like that we know that these random investors know more than Jassy knows about his own business? Like I'm going to take that bet all day long. So, it's like but here's the problem. That negativity is what goes viral on X. It it it drives all the engagement, right? And then there's all these guys with newsletters and guys like Burry that are out there for engagement and selling money with newsletters and they're just like it's sickening to watch all these retail investors get pulled into that. Nothing that I did with Amazon was special. Like I did not see anything None of my research resulted in me finding like a needle in the haystack that no one else could see with Amazon. It's all very obvious stuff. That's so crazy. It's like it's not like I did something special here. It's just that I'm not getting caught up in the noise. It's just right in front of our face. Is there an anomaly that could potentially impact Amazon in a negative way? Of course there is. >> And really quick, every business is asking themselves the same question. How do we make AI work for us? The possibilities are limitless, but guessing is too risky and sitting on the sidelines is not an option because one thing is certain. If you're not doing it, your competitors are already making their move. And that's where our sponsor NetSuite by Oracle comes in. It's the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses to manage everything from financials and inventory to commerce, HR, and CRM all in one unified system. When all of your data is in one place, your AI becomes a lot smarter. It doesn't just guess, it knows. NetSuite intelligently automates routine tasks, delivers real-time insights, and helps you make fast, confident decisions that actually help drive growth. And it's not just an add-on, it's AI that's literally built right into the system that runs your business, helping you cut costs, improve accuracy, and stay ahead of the competition. Whether your company's making millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite gives you visibility and control to keep moving forward. Honestly, if I were building a business of this size, NetSuite's the only company that I have 100% confidence in. So, if your revenues are at least in the seven figures, get our completely free business guide demystifying AI at netsuite.com/clips. Again, the guide is free for you at netsuite.com/clips. netsuite.com/clips with the link down below in the description. >> Is there an anomaly that could potentially impact Amazon in a negative way? Of course there is. But that would be the anomaly. People are acting like the anomaly is that what Amazon is saying is the truth. And and and by the way, like there is some degree of like concentration risk with a lot of the compute demand coming from Anthropic, coming from OAI, right? People just are worried that they're not going to make good on their compute contracts. So what? Like in the event that OAI did blow up, which again, if OAI and Anthropic blow up, there are so many things that could happen, right? First of all, the government can backstop them. >> And they will. >> They probably will. Like how did we forget too big to fail? >> That's what happened, by the way, 2008. You have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac taken over by the government. They would not let them fail. >> I think these retail kid investors are too young to really to have lit If you live through too big for fail to fail, you really understand it, right? Like it is highly likely. I mean, there's been nothing more important that I can remember in the last 25 years than AI right now to like solve sovereignty. Like you see what's happening with China? Do you really think that our government is going to let OAI OAI and Anthropic fail? Not because we care about those two companies, but the avalanche that would happen after them, right? So what would happen? They would come in and they would backstop stop them, and they would help negotiate a deal to transfer that to other entities that have the technical infrastructure and the balance sheets to take them over, right? And those new entities, however many are involved in that deal, would take over the compute contracts, right? It's It's just that simple. And I think everyone is also concerned. I mean, there's there's a lot of concerns. And this is where the opportunity is, right? Cuz like no one understands AI in in the financial world. The world of finance has become so short-sighted and like ADD that I don't think anyone does deep research anymore. Neopal does. I I there are a few people that do deep research. But, most of the research I see getting printed is just copy and paste. It's very surface level. Or people are just going for engagement and clicks. But, like if you do the research, it is it's it's like so clear that it would be an anomaly for the value of compute to just go away quickly anytime in the near future while these contracts are meaningfully important for these hyperscalers.