When I look at cake I see a consistent business model of growth, right? I see stable gross margins just under 80%. I see a company that's uptick in their net margins and I see a company that's earnings per share set to boom for years to go in the future, right?
Contexto
"When I look at cake I see a consistent business model of growth... I see a company that's earnings per share set to boom for years to go in the future."
Transcrição Completa
The flapjacks are being flipped all over the place. So, in all seriousness, folks, we have some big stuff going on in the market that I got to share with you in this video here today. And I mean big stuff going on. So, you're looking at a day like today. SanDisk stock down 9%. MU Micron down 7%. Meta got hit hard today. AMD's back into the 400s once again, down over four percentage points here today. You have a 30-year Treasury that is just absolutely on fire right now. new 52- week high for the 30-year Treasury here today. Meanwhile, you have other stocks out there that are just redot, right? Look at ELF on a shelf. ELF's on the highest shelf. Okay, this stock is up 65% the past 3 months. It is just just booming, right? And it's incredible because you got some stocks that are just incredibly weak and then other stocks that are just incredibly strong. Look at Service Now. Service Now up 21% the past 3 months. That's an incredible move. Shopify no longer getting Shopified. The stock's up about 48% in the past three months. Talk about hot. But there's one king has always got to be a king. And the king is Cheesecake Factory. Look at that threemonth move. 80 percentage points, ladies and gentlemen. Cheesecake Factory is up 80% the past three flipping flapjacking months. Holy smokes. Is that ain't no dang joke. Okay, four core subjects I want to talk about here today. What's going on in this market? We have some big things that are happening beneath the market that I need to explain what's going on there so everybody understands where the market is headed from here. Okay. Second thing we're going to talk about in this video is Meta. Meta is a stock that is very divisive and there's not a lot of people that can really give it to you both sides. I'm here to do that here today. As somebody that's been a meta shareholder on and off for the longest time, like pretty much since the company went IPO, I want to give you a perspective on the stock here today that I think is going to be very important and talk about the bearish points with the stock, the bullish points with the stock, and really get you to understand this company on a little deeper level. So, if you're looking at it and you see the stock at a 500 something, you're trying to figure out is this a good deal? Is this a bad deal? What's going on here? Why is the stock not rallying? People thought the stock was going to be good this year and it's not, right? So, we'll talk about it. Third subject up here, I'm going to give you some stocks that are positioned very well regardless of what happens in the market from here. Okay. Fourth subject we'll get in here today is I want to explain why Cake stock has gone so insane cuz people look at that and like how is that like the greatest stock ever, right? 80% the past 3 months. It's outperforming like anything you pretty much think of over the past 3 month span. Like what is going on there? There's some fundamental changes I need to explain what's going on there so everybody can understand that on a higher level. Okay, I appreciate you all for joining me. One thing, one thing only I need from you. If you have not already done so, I need you to smash the like button as the sign in my garage says. That's all I need from you. Okay? Make sure to subscribe to the channel obviously so you can see more of my content and my videos in the future. Description area down there. I don't know if you guys know this, but the description area, I got a bunch of goodies in the description area. If you're looking to apply, join my private group, I got that link down there. If you're looking to join my Patreon, I got that link down there. If you want free workshops, I recorded for you guys on teaching you a bunch of different subjects. I got that down for there for you. And if you want to follow me on Instagram or X, I got those down there for you as well. All righty, ladies and gentlemen. Let's get rolling. Let's talk the market first. Listen, we have corporate debt getting more expensive. Now, this is just really the tip of the iceberg from what we're about to get into here today, but it is important to understand that corporate debt is basically about a half a percent more expensive right now than it was a year ago. Right? The AI capital expenditure boom, the capex boom. Massive tech companies like Amazon, Google, McDougall, Meta are borrowing heavily to build data centers and finance artificial intelligence infrastructure. US corporate bond issuance has reached a staggering $1.68 trillion through July alone, up nearly 27% year-over-year. The this heavy supply of corporate paper forces companies to offer slightly higher yields to attract selective investors. Now, this is an interesting dynamic where you have the 30-year continue to go higher, right? And you also have this dynamic where companies are basically having to offer higher yields as well. And so, it started to become a fight for money, right? But this is really just a tip of the iceberg to understand. I just want you guys to understand like corporate debt is at the end of the day, it's getting more expensive. Okay? But this is just tip of the iceberg. Okay? Look at this. Nvidia, you would think Nvidia is arguably the most solid great company in the stock market right now, right? Look at the revenue growth, look at the profitability, look at the profit growth, look at the margins, look at the income statement, look at the balance sheet, look at, you know, Jensen in the way he runs the company, right? And you would think there's no higher quality company than something like Nvidia, right? Nvidia 5-year credit default swaps are borderline blowing out. Now, at this point in time, Nvidia 5-year credit default swap CDs uh spread has more than doubled over the past few months, surging from a low of around 35 to 40 basis points in late May to a current peak of 80 basis points. Because a a a credit default swap effectively acts as insurance policy against corporate default or financial distress. This sharp increase indicates that credit traders are actively pricing higher risk into Nvidia's balance sheet. While Nvidia remains highly profitable and nowhere near default, Wall Street credit desks are flashing yellow lights due to few highly specific developments. Right. And there's a lot of circular financing going on where Nvidia like invests into this company. Oh, we're investing $5 billion in this company and that company buys like $5 billion in Nvidia chips right back. It's it's a whole situation, right? And if you know I don't want to even talk about that subject if you're well versed in the stock market, you know what's going on in regards to all that circular financing stuff, right? But the fact that a company like Nvidia, which is arguably the most highquality company out there, their spread has more than doubled just over the past few months for credit default swaps. It should be something that says, "Oh, that's that's a little suspect there, right? That's a little suspect." And keep in mind, when we talk about things like credit default swaps, this is something that only the most sophisticated investors and funds participate in, right? This isn't like uh people are trading these you know really on Robin Hood and things like that right so then you say okay let's go tear down from here right what about a company like Oracle Oracle is facing a flow a full-blown financial storm in the credit markets with its 5-year credit default swap spread skyrocketing 200 basis points up from just 40 basis points a year ago this means in ensuring Oracle's debt against default has roughly quintupled It has pushed Oracle's implied cumulative default probability over 16% making it the single most stressed investment grade technology borrower. That's crazy to even think about a 16% probability of default on a company like Oracle. Oracle we're talking about here, right? And uh this company's free cash flow is a complete disaster, right? I mean they're talking about guiding capex to explode even higher to, you know, 90 95 billion. I mean, this is crazy, right? I'm showing you now. Look at this. Look at this. This is thousandx.com. This is our charts feature. Oracle's free cash flow gotten so bad. It went off the charts. Trevor, Andre, team, developers, can we fix this chart, please, for Oracle? But that's how insane this got. I've never seen it before where a company's free cash flow got so bad that it broke thousandx socks home. It literally broke our charts feature. It went through the bottom. That's how bad it's gotten. Look at that. The free cash flow per share. Look at that. That's dramatic in regards to Oracle. Right now, you can say, well, maybe it's just an Oracle situation. I mean, Oracle is a huge company. It's a $400 billion market cap and the stock's down massively from its all-time high, right? But look further. look to more quality, right? And we're going to see a very worrying trend. Look at Meta's free cash flow at this point in time, right? It topped a long time ago and is clearly trending down, right? Free cash flow per share from Meta. Same exact thing. But I want to give you even a more real illustration because what we're focusing on here is trilling 12 month. If you look on a quarterly basis, it's really ugly. Look at the free cash flow of Meta. Oh my gosh, do we have a problem. Oh my gosh. Right now, additionally, it's not just free cash flow that's a problem. It's earnings per share. Right? If you look at the latest quarterly numbers for Meta when it comes to EPS on a quarter-over-quarter basis, EPS is down over 40% and a year-over-year basis, down 13%. I mean, Meta used to be the company you could always count on coming through with bigger and bigger EPS numbers, and now we're talking about EPS going down for this company, right? And remember, the capex numbers aren't stopping. It's not like all of a sudden they're like, "Oh, we're not spending any." No, it's going to get worse before it gets better for these companies as I've been explaining, right? What about my lovely amazing on Amazon stock, right? Look at free cash flow that was piling up. Their free cash flow was exploding at Amazon, right? And now it's gone into the negatives and it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. That's the thing you got to understand. it, you know, it' be one thing if it's like, okay, that's it. You know, we're heading back up from here. It's not, and it's not anytime soon. Like, it's going to get a lot worse for at least a year or two, but it's also debatable if it's going to be three or four years of the cash flow getting worse and worse and worse. Now, you get to see what's going on here. Right? This is free cash flow per share. Oh my gosh, look what has happened at the great old amazing zone. Right? So then that leads us to what dictates whether the S&P 500 goes up, what dictates whether the NASDAQ 100 goes up, the Q's, right, which are the indexes that really everybody looks at nowadays, the Dow Jones, you know, no one really looks at that nowadays, the Russell 2000, unless you're super into the stock market. You're not looking at the Russell 2000. What everybody actually pays attention to the NASDAQ, the Q's, and the S&P 500. Okay? And so we have a phenomenon now where you got to say what dictates whether this S&P 500, the stock market goes up, people make money or lose money. Well, I'll tell you what dictates it. It's these 12 companies and or really 11 companies in front of your eyes right here. Okay. Nvidia, Apple, Mr. softy Microsoft, Amazing Zon, Google, McDougall, SpaceX, Broadcom Meta Tesla Masla Micron and Walmart, right? Those 11 companies right there. Now, you have issues with almost every single one of those stocks, right? You say Nvidia, people are clearly scared about Nvidia. Their credit default swaps are are piling, you know, they're going insane. Like that's people are scared of Nvidia because they say so much circular financing. What happens when there's a pullback in capex? Whether that's a year out, two years out, three years out, that's scary, right? And what does that mean for Nvidia's pricing power? What's that mean for their margins, right? That's a big big concern out there. Apple, Apple has valuation concerns. The, you know, P ratio, 4 P ratio for Apple's, you know, deep in the 30s. So that has valuation problems, right? Microsoft has capex problems. And remember, when we talk about these companies spending all this money on capex, it's not just, oh, they're spending so much money, so they can't do share buybacks. They can't buy out other companies, things like that. It's they're spending so much money, you have to depreciate those chips over five to six years. So that hurts your earnings per share massively. And your free cash flow goes bye-bye. And that's what everybody used to buy these stocks for. Everybody bought these stocks because it was like, these companies have the most insane free cash flow. They buy back a ton of shares and their profitability just goes up and up and up. You can't you can't count on any of that now. It's gone the opposite way. So now your case is well revenue growth. Amazing on capex problems. Google McDougall capex problems. Uh SpaceX that's a spec stock. So you know the fact that it's even in grouped in with these stocks is just ridiculous. But yeah, I don't even want to speak on that. It's just a spec stock. So that's a joke. Uh Broadcom is kind of a me. They might be the most decently positioned story stock out of these bunch just because people might look at a Broadcom as that's a play on potentially saving money on chips, right, versus buying the highest end stuff from Nvidia. Meta is a capex problem. Uh Tesla's a laugh out loud. Uh Micron is another scared stock. People are like, "Oh my gosh, Micron's making so much. They're going to make so much next year." But what about in 2028? What about in 2029? What about in 2030? Right? It's another scared stock just like an Nvidia situation. And then Walmart, you actually have valuation problems with that stock. So, okay, what we got? You know, that that's a mess. That's a mess at the top of the market. And the mark, this is what runs the stock market, right? And so, that's something to kind of keep in mind here, right? So, I'll put it to you like this. If we're talking the short term, right? It's like imagine we got this great party going on and at first the party was so much fun. Like, we were all having a great time, right? And that's what it was, you know, over the past few years. Like these companies were upping their capex, but they were keeping them at realistic numbers and the profitability was increasing these companies and free cash flow was still banging and it was great. And now it's not like that anymore. Now Nvidia, you know, really over the past year, it's just gotten messier and messier, right? Nvidia is having to invest in all these customers. So then they go buy their chips back and you got all these companies just went so crazy with the capex. They're now free cash flow negative, right? And it's like, you know, everybody drank too much at the party. They all drank too much of the party and now people are getting ready to throw up and people are getting ready to fight, right? That's like that. That's what happened, right? And so that's what we have going on in the short term. But you got to also take that away from the long term, right? Because the long term, we're going to have a lot more parties in the future. Yeah, this party is starting to get messy. Yeah, people are starting to throw up at this party and you know, people are starting to fight, but there will be more parties again. We'll clean up this party, right? And we will have fun in the future. But in the short term, the next, I think, one to two years, it's messy, man. We got a mess. Um, that doesn't mean all stocks are going to be bad. There's going to be some stocks that give incredible gains over the next couple years, but top of the market is a mess. It really, really is. Right now, the other thing I want to say here, very important to say this. Listen, what you're looking at here, right here, that's the seven figure club award, right? We've given that out to probably 200 plus private group members over the past few years, right? You get to seven figures plus, and we're coming out with an eight figure club here soon. you get to seven figures plus in the stock market, eight figures plus, but I focus on the long term. This mess we have in front of us for the next year or two, it's just another mess. It's just another mess. We'll get it cleaned up and we'll get out to the other side as we do with all the messes. And so, every time you get into a sticky situation, the market, I always want to say this is the end. This is the one we're not coming back from, right? And we always come back stronger, better than ever before, right? But every single time you you're getting put into a messy situation, they always say this time's different. This is the one you don't recover from, right? And we do always. And so it's getting messy out there. I think it's going to get messier, but there's going to be a lot of money to be made in certain stocks over this next few years, and there's going to be incredible gains to be had over the long term in so many of these companies. And so don't let the party that's starting to go south here, don't let that clout the 5year, 7year, 10 year, 20 year visions of where you need to grow, where your portfolio needs to get to, right? Because remember, you're not building a portfolio for 2026. You're not building a portfolio for 2027. You're building a portfolio for the 2030s, right? We're trying to build our wealth for the 2030s and the 2040s. And so the short term will be what the short term is. Okay. All righty. Next up here, let's talk some meta. Then we'll talk about some stocks that are insanely well positioned regardless of this market and should head head a lot higher. And then we'll talk about why cake has gone a sign. Okay, Meta. So Meta's front page news here today. Uh you know, they got a trial going on. Okay, this trial's another messy situation for Meta. Investor keeping a close eye on opening arguments in a Meta child privacy case that starts Tuesday. A group of 29 states have filed suit against Facebook and Instagram parent arguing that Meta violated federal child privacy act various consumer protection statutes and fostered addictive behavior in teens and children. Attorneys for Meta said the company could be on the hook for as much as $1.4 trillion. Oh my gosh, that's insane. The lawyers representing states told a judge last week that 200 billion is a more realistic number. No matter what, those numbers are crazy, right? Those are crazy. Now, also, this could affect algorithm in the future and how they do their algorithm. So, it's a whole situation, right? So, Meta, I'll put it to you like this. And keep in mind, this is a stock. The first time I ever bought Meta Stock was a few months after it went IPO, and the stock had crashed like 50%. I bought some shares, and you know, I was kind of still in my first few years of investing at that time. And I made some quick money on Meta and I flipped out of it for like I don't know 10 20% gain or something like that. Right. And then I started buying in very heavily around what was that 2017 2018 I think it's 2018 into 2019. Then I bought incredibly heavy in like 2022. But you got to understand with Meta listen Meta goes through these hurricanes I call them. And if you were around back in the 2022 days when I was buying Meta stock very heavily, I was telling you guys like Meta's in a hurricane, right? And so Meta's in another hurricane, okay? And this hurricane is it's a big one and it's not going to go away short term. And when Meta gets in these hurricane situations, it's not like they'd have just one problem. They end up having like a multitude of problems. That's why I call it a hurricane. It' be one thing if they only had this trial and that was it. They got a bunch of problems coming from a bunch of angles now. So, first off, we got what just happened there, right? The states are after them. They're trying to seek 1.4 trillion, 200 billion. Who knows what the number ends up being, but don't be surprised if Meta has to end up changing some algorithms. Don't be surprised if Meta has to come out of pocket billions of dollars. Like, we'll see what happens, but it's not it's not a good situation, right? And it's not good from a branding perspective as either, right? So, that's a big issue. But then we have capex concerns, right? They're spending silly amounts of capex and they're probably going to spend even more next year and they got a massive lawsuit they're going to have to fund as well, right? Then it's not just that they're spending so much, it's that they're the one company that no one is sure if they're even going to get an ROI on this capex. Everybody else is like confident that you're going to get at least some return on investment. It might not be a great one, but at least people will say, "Amazon, you're spending so much. We get it because AWS growth has taken off, right? Same thing with Google with Google Cloud and they also have a chips business as well, right? Um, even Microsoft with their open AI investment and so those companies get a pass for their ROI and obvious obviously Microsoft also with their cloud business as well. Meta people like I don't know like Meta's talking about maybe doing a cloud business and maybe doing this, maybe doing that, but even if they do that, we we don't even know if they're going to be successful at it. And additionally like it's going to grow from such a small base like the numbers won't be meaningful to Meta for years because it's such a large company. So it's not like when am when AWS growth takes off it's huge for Amazon because the raw numbers are so big for for AWS, right? Same thing with Google and their cloud business. Same thing with Azure and Microsoft's product, right? If Google if micros if meta's grown from like a base of nothing and they grow to a few billion dollars, it's nothing, you know, it's a rounding error for for for Meta over the next few years. And so that's a big question like what what are we getting on all all this capex spend? Then you have free cash flow is done for Meta for the next several years. Like just mathematically it's done. And then earnings per share is likely going to continue to shrink for the next few years for Meta. So, we're in a hurricane. I don't know another way to put it. We're in an absolute hurricane. And none of this is being cleaned up in the next like few weeks, the next few months. This is going to take a year minimum, but likely several years to clean up this mess. This hurricane is it's real. It's real regarding Meta. And I'm telling you, when it when when it hits, it's it's ugly. It's category five. when we're talking Meta, right? And so when I look at Meta stock, right, it's a stock that's an important position for me. It's over half million dollar position, the public count. I look at it as just a hold. I really do. Um, it's the messiest of the mag seven outside of Tesla, but it's hard for me to get excited about Meta. I think the earnings per share is going down next year, and I think it's going down more than next year. And so, you look at a forward P of Meta and you're like, "Oh, looks so good." I don't think it looks good. their free cash flow is likely going to get worse before it gets better. And then we got this massive uh lawsuit situation. It's a mess, man. It's really a mess. It's a company I want to hold for the long term. I want it to continue to be a core position, but I'm not bullish about Meta in the short term. If it runs, I I think it's a rangebound stock, and I've said this many times. I think it's a rangebound stock. I think every, you know, nice bounce you get in the stock where it's like, oh, Meta is coming back. It just gets sold off. And I think that will continue to be the situation. But I'm willing to hold my money in a stock that is dead money shortterm for the long-term upside there, right? And so what you you know, what would it take me to say, "Oh gosh, I got to go add more meta shares. Woo. I need either the mess starting to get cleaned up and I can see some ending or ultimately, listen, I need the stock price a lot lower than where we're at. I'm talking 300s, right? 300. So, that's something to keep in mind there. Okay. All right. Now, let's talk about some stocks that are actually positioned well, and then we'll talk about why Cake has gone insane and where that stock's headed from here. Okay? All righty. So, the first one up here is Netflix. Netflix is such a clean undervalued stock and this is a very clean story here in in regards to Netflix. You know, if you look at a lot of these, I mean, almost all these QQQ top positions, they're all questionable, right? None of them have clean stories. Netflix is a one clean story. You know, they're going to come in with subscriber growth. It's just question of how much. You know, they're going to be able to slightly go up on plans here and there over time. You know, they're going to continue to grow their ad business, right? you know, they're going to continue to expand international and you know roughly what their capex numbers are, right? So, it's just a clean company. It's undervalued. The forward P in the stocks likely low 20s right now. So, it's clean. It's $77.77. That's a good sign also, by the way. But yeah, it's clean. It's undervalued. Netflix, I think, is going to get more and more attractive to big money because if you're big money, you're looking out there and you're like, what do you want to buy? Do you want to buy Nvidia right now? You want to buy Meta right now. You want to buy Amazon and their capex numbers right now. You you look out there and you're like the one stock that just is very clean and undervalued is one of Wall Street's favorite stocks is Netflix. And so I think that one is uh in a great position regardless of what happens in the market. I think Netflix is positioned very very well. And Netflix is a stock that any dip in that stock you can easily buy. Right? So that's Netflix. Next one up here. This is a super small company. Honest HNST on this one, right? This is also a very clean story now at this point in time. Organic revenue has nice, you know, singledigit growth there. Margins continue to uptick for this company. Profitability continues to get in a better and better place for this company. Free cash flow continues to get in a better place for this company. The balance sheets outstanding. I mean, this little teeny company has like over hund00 million cash now with no debt, right? And so that's just a clean undervalued company regardless of what happens in the market. It really doesn't fluctuate like the like the S&P could go down 20%. And I don't think it even really like affects Honest. If anything, I think Honest goes up regardless of what happens in the market, right? And they sell needs based products. That's the other best thing about them, right? Like, you know, they sell diapers and wipes and and you know, beauty products and things like that. like the type of products people are going to buy regardless of the S&P 500's going up or going down. And so Honest is a very clean undervalued stock there. Next one, Celsius Holdings. I think Celsius Holdings is now incredibly clean now at this point in time, right? The stock is heavily discounted. It's in the 20s, right? It's a very simple story now at this point in time. The Lonnie acquisition is is, you know, well integrated into the company now at this point in time, right? The only not clean part is this recent situation regarding the Rockstar CEO and him buying a bunch of shares and he wants to try to be CEO of the company. They might be able to clean that up if they could sell off Rockstar to him or something like that. Maybe if they could pull off something like that, they could probably get a nice cash infusion from what they could sell Rockstar to him for. And then he if he wants to run Rockstar, help yourself. Go go go run Rockstar, right? So because at the end of the day, like you're you're investing if you buy Celsius stock, you're buying this company for the Celsius brand and for the Alani brand. You're not buying this company because of Rockstar and they're like 1% market share, right? That's a historical brand that tried to compete w with Monster and Red Bull and they just weren't able to get the job done, right? like you're investing in Celsius because of Celsius and because of Alani in those two very successful brands in their continued expansion over the coming years, right? And so the way I look at it, my hope is they could maybe end up and I don't know how all the Pepsi contracts work and I don't know if Pepsi would have an issue with this, but I would love it if they could just sell Rockstar for I don't know $300 million, $500 million, whatever, right? sell it off to this guy, get his situation done and out of there, right? Then we don't have any messiness, and then they could use that 300,500 million, whatever they get for Rockstar and invest that back in the Celsius brand, Alani's brand, right? Or buy back the shares in the 20s, do a huge share buyback. So yeah, but the moral of the story is outside of that CEO situation, it's actually pretty clean now at this point in time and heavily discounted. And so I think Celsius continues to set up very very well. Next one up here, ELF is so far in the shelf. This one is incredibly clean now at this point in time. Right. Right. The road acquisition is well done. So that integration's you know well done now at this point in time. Right. This company had to go through a ton of tariff drama over the past few years with the tariffs and then you know price increases and then price decreases and margins moving around. The tariff drama's ah pretty dead now at this point in time, right? T-Man's moved on to other battles and he's got a lot of other battles going on out there, right? And so the tariffs were situation. It was a serious situation that ELF had to deal with. It affected their margins substantially. It affected they were going up on price, then they had to go down on price and it was just it was a mess, right? And and and all at the same time of the road acquisition was all going on. And so this just messy situation that's all cleaned up now. The tariff drama is done. the road acquisition's well done and so now it's just clean and so that's why ELF you can continue to see that stock have momentum I mean you could have bought those shares for 49 bucks a share you know back in early June was it June 5th 49 bucks it was there for you right now it's 92 and I think this stock exits this year worst case scenario in my opinion 100 best case scenario 140 and that's exiting this year right so there's still significant upside between now and the end of the year in my personal opinion in regards to ELF and so Those stocks are all positioned very well regardless of all the drama and the capex and the chip cycle and overspending, underspending, and credit default swaps in the top of the market, blah blah blah. These companies are very well positioned. Okay. All right. Next up here, let's talk about Cake. What I'm going to do with this stock and why this stock has gone so insane, right? Because I don't think people understand it, but there's been a fundamental change in Cake's business model. So, this stock's done very well. Up $213,000 in the public account. does not include dividends received from the stock. Right? What a banger. What a banger. But if you know me and you know Cake and I've talked about the stock for the last several years, you know, I explain it like this. I break the company down very simple. They have the Cheesecake Factory concept. It's an ATM machine. They don't grow a lot of locations of Cheesecake Factory nowadays. It might be a few a year, but it's an ATM business model and they just make bang from the Cheesecake Factory, right? One of the most successful restaurant concepts we've ever seen. But they have two concepts they're expanding all over the United States of America over the next you know we can call it half dozen a dozen years right one is North Italia Italian concept and the other is flowerchild right and then they have several other concepts that they're expanding into more and more cities and states around the United States right but if you know what I talk about in regards to Cheesecake Factory the biggest opportunity is right here it's a company named Flowerchild right it's a brand they own here this is the opportunity by a mile. The company's talking about they have the potential for 700 domestic locations over time. Currently, this particular brand only has 44 locations. Now, the other beautiful thing with this company is the margins set up to be phenomenal for this company, right? And you have a significant amount of the business is to go business, right? So, great margins, a lot of to-go business. 44 locations. Right now, they're talking about going to 700 over time, right? But the newest fundamental game changer that happened for Flower Child was in this most recent quarter. They reported comp sales of 13% growth on a year-over-year basis. Now, it comes after a 5% number the same time last year. The 13% is a gamecher. The you haven't seen many companies ever put up that sort of comp. The only company that you I can even think of in my 18 years of being in the stock market that could put up 13% type comps was Chipotle. Chipotle. Chipotle. And look at how special Chipotle obviously was, right? And now they have what? Thousands of locations of Chipotle all over the place, right? And obviously one of the best restaurant concepts we've ever seen from a profitability standpoint, uh, from a margin standpoint, from a revenue standpoint, right? It's been amazing what they were able to achieve. Chipotle. Now that story is just, you know, it just put up their numbers, right? It's nothing special anymore cuz they ran their course, but what a what a stock that was to be in over the last, you know, 15, 20 years. like what a stock because they had massive inter you know expansion of locations but then they also had like this these banger comp sales that they would do where they put up 8% comp restaurant sales 9% 13% 10% incredible numbers and then we're starting to see that from Flowerchild 13% number that's that's insane insane that they put up that number coming off of a 5% comp that you know the same time last year like that's insane right so when I look at cake I see a consistent business model of growth, right? I see stable gross margins just under 80%. I see a company that's uptick in their net margins and I see a company that's earnings per share set to boom for years to go in the future, right? Additionally, look at the free cash flow and the free cash flow per share. This is going the way we want to see it go, right? Unlike the other companies, the big techs that used to be like this, like Cheesecake really does it, right? They really do it. And so we're pouring off more and more and more money from this company which then they can invest into more and more locations, right? And do share buybacks and increase dividends and all those sorts of things. Right now the might be the only push back for cake is the valuation has definitely risen in regards to stock P ratios now in the mid20s. Right? Listen, that's not bad in my personal opinion. That's not bad at all when you consider the safety of the business model because of the Cheesecake brand and the ATM of that. Right? When you consider they got two concepts are expanding all over the United States of America with several concepts in testing phase, right? And when you consider Flower Child's the most exciting concept to the restaurant category in my opinion since Chipotle, like you know, the only concepts I can think over the past 20 years that have been as exciting as Chipotle or not not as exciting, but like up there that you could at least put in the same sentence is really flower child opportunity here in Cava Cava Cabba Cava Cava. Right? That's it. I can think of anything else that is like, "Oh, that was like huge right here. That's going to be huge." And so, look at the operating cash flow, all-time highs for this company. So, cheesecake, incredible company, right, folks. Lot going on short term. There's going to be a lot more. It's going to be flapjacks all over the place. Focus on building your portfolios brick by brick. You know what I do every week? I buy the best opportunities I can possibly find in the market. I keep it simple. I look out there and I say, "That's messy. That's messy. That's messy." That's fine. I see other opportunities I love, right? And it's different stocks at different times. 2022 historic buying opportunity for Meta Stock, right? Historic buying opportunity. Like, wow. Meta stock for under $100. Incredible, right? Meta Stock, I don't look at it as a historic buying opportunity. It's way too much of a mess, right? But there's other stocks that I look at that I'm like, I think that's a historic buying opportunity. That stock over there, that's a historic buying opportunity, right? And so I deploy capital into those stocks, right? AMD couple years ago, historic buying opportunity in that stock. You get the shares for 100 bucks, right? I look at that stock and I don't I don't see a historic buying opportunity in AMD. Doesn't mean it's a bad buy and I would take AMD over Meta certainly for, you know, at least the next year or two, but you know, just focus on where you can find the best opportunities at a particular time for the next 3 to 5 years and invest your capital there. And it's going to be different stocks at different times, right? And um you know, if Meta goes down to 300, I'm I might feel very different about that company. You might see me starting to gobble up shares left and right, but I'm going to put my money where it has the best chance to grow. And it it has the best riskreward. And that's what you just focus on week after week, month after month, year after year. And you'd be shocked at the size of the portfolio you can build over time, right? Look at the public account. Public count's, you know, deep in the $4 million now, right? as a portfolio we really got up and running in like 2018. And so now think about the public account in 2028, right? Think about the public account in 2032. Let's say I keep running the public account for years and years. Where do you think the public account's going to be in 2036? You see that portfolio today fourome million. Where do you see that portfolio in 2036? $12 million, $20 million, $30 million, think bigger. Okay. All righty, guys. Appreciate you joining me as always. Thanks so much for being here. Once again, the description area down there is if you're looking to apply to your own private group, you want to take your knowledge up to a much higher level. You want access to all my course curriculums, access to thousandx.com, the private Discord chat, the community of six, seven, and eight figure members, all that good stuff. That will be the first link. Second link is if you want to join my Patreon. Third links if you want to grab free workshops that I recorded for you guys. And the last links there are if you want to follow me on Instagram or you want to follow me on X. I've always post a lot of stuff on X and I post a lot of Instagram stories. All right, guys. Much love as always and have a great
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