Bitcoin Explodes 25%: Is Crypto Bear Market Finally Over? | Ran Neuner

What a crazy week. First, on the 19th of August, we had the Treasury announced that they would double bond buybacks. On that day, Bitcoin started rising and it didn't stop rising. It went from 60,000 to now 77,000 in a matter of a couple of days, up about uh almost 20%. So, what's happening? And by the way, just yesterday, uh Trump announced that they would uh he would impose 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports. But that's not the focus today. The focus is whether or not the crypto bull market is back. Crypto winter is it dead? Ron Neoer, founder of crypto banter is back with us to answer exactly that. Ron, welcome back. Good to see you. >> Nice nice to see you, R. How's it going? >> Just a lot of events to cover this week. Busy, my friend. So, good to see you. I woke up this morning to uh this very encouraging post. I don't know if it was encouraging or discouraging. Ron Niner warning us that we're going to get so rich we're gonna spend all our money's spend all our money on sports cars and waste it on mansions and go bust in the next bear cycle. Most people I know bought sports cars, mansions and watches and the bull literally went bust in the bear houses and cars repossessed watches sold at discount and worse they lost relationships that were based on sports cars and bottles at central bank clubs. Okay, we are going into a new cycle. That's this is the key here. We are going into a new cycle. You will make tons of cash this time. Think twice about what you do with it. Okay, this is >> Yeah, I mean, let [laughter] me give you >> let me give you the background cuz actually maybe it's read a little bit out of context, right? >> Actually, it was that post was written because I heard that another friend of mine who in the bare market went in the previous bull market bought Lamborghinis Ferraris Bugattis etc. Uh was liquidated. uh whereas I liquidated was was insolvent and his house repossessed and his car is repossessed and whatever else. And um I think it's a it's a crypto thing where the money comes really really really easy in the bull markets and people that have never seen money before what they land up doing is they land up spending it on sports cars on fancy clothes on Louis Vuitton on prowers um on bottle service in Sanrope clubs and walking walking out with $30,000 $30,000 uh bills. And ultimately what I've seen is that everyone who did that in the bare market basically went bust or is is scr is scrging around for money. Now the reason why I say the part at the end is because in a crypto bull market it's very difficult not to make money. Everyone makes money and makes a lot of money. The problem is though that they either spend the money on garbage as I've just mentioned or they they hold too long and they roundtrip the gains and land up with nothing. And so, you know, I think we're going into a bull market. In fact, my thesis is that we're going into a bull market. And I think that's what we're going to talk about today. Um, and I just, you know, just a friendly reminder that, you know, have respect for money. And, uh, and just make sure that that you that you Exactly. I think that the bottom line is have respect for money. I mentioned in that tweet that, um, I come from, you know, a very humble background, but, before this, I built and sold a company that I sold for over $150 million, and I've made a lot of money in crypto. I've never bought a sports car. I've never set foot in Louis Vuitton. I've never set foot in Prada. I've never ever gone to a Sanrope club and spent €30,000 on bottle service and whatever else. And ultimately, it is because I went broke twice before that. And I have huge respect for money. I I never ever ever want to be broke again. Um and so I think that's where that that tweet actually came from. >> Right. Well, uh personal finance advice aside, I'm Thank you for that um reminder. Um hopefully we're going to be in a position in this market to be able to afford those things and not do it. But um this is this is the chart in front of me that we're discussing today. This is what prompted you to write this kind of tweet and um and we're going to be talking about this chart movement. Now, let me before we analyze the charts and what moved Bitcoin and why it's moving, let me just make a controversial statement that maybe you can help us um decipher here. Crypto is dead. Okay, there's no new bull market. I mean, yeah, Bitcoin went up in a vertical line in the last two days, but this that's it, okay? Um, there's no new bull market. This is everybody left to go on prediction markets or AI stocks and and and and this is this is it. Um, this isn't my opinion, by the way. This is a lot of people in the community. Anthony Pompiano, I interviewed him a couple months ago at the same conference I interviewed you in Miami. He said crypto is dead. Those were his words. So, um, if it's dead, it's not coming back. there's no re I don't believe in reincarnation. So I don't believe in reincarnation to markets either. Examine can you evaluate that? >> So um I if if you let me share my screen let me show you a couple of charts and I think that'll give you so I don't blame Anthony Pompiano or actually anyone who believes that that crypto is dead. Uh specifically I think if you look at my chart if you look at the period before what happened here it was a downtrend that happened from the 6th of October. In that downtrend, we dropped about 52%. And the previous 80 days, so 77 days or let me give you give you the exact number. Previous 80 days, 78 days, crypto was in a range of between 60 and $64,000. There was no interest in crypto. There was no volume in crypto. There was no social volume in crypto. And everyone declared crypto dead. And then I tweeted something and I said in the tweet I said I have a feeling that this bare market is going to be cut short um and that we're going to get caught by surprise. I didn't say it as directly as that. In fact, I'll quickly call up the tweet for you because you know I I always believe in in in receipts. Um so let me just uh show you the receipts. Um I literally went back. Let me go just a little bit further back. Anyway, there was a tweet that I said and I said, um, yeah, it's coming up now. Yeah. I said, I think this market is about to trick us. Everyone is expecting one more leg down and a bottom in October. I think it'll either last a lot longer into early mid next year or it'll spike soon out of nowhere. That was, if you look at the at the date there, that was um 8 August 18th. Now, what happened the next day, that is I think uh August 19th. Here we So, August, August 20th, we got the big or August 19th, we got the big green candle up. Now, I'll tell you what my data points are and why I think that this bare market's actually over. So, everyone knows that or everyone knows that crypto goes through what they call the four-year cycles. And the four-year cycle basically says that in October of the post-h havinging year, we usually get a correction. And the correction usually lasts about a year. Um, give or take. Today, we're probably about 11 or 10 and a half months into the correction. The thing with these corrections is that if you look at if you look at at the corrections and specifically if you look at around the 200 week moving average what you realize is that when you look at the Bitcoin cycles the in 2017 and 2018 the low was the 200WE moving average. In the 2021 and 20202 market the low was just under the 200E moving average. We stayed there for quite a while. We stayed we stayed there for a couple of weeks. I think it was like 40 weeks or something like that and then we went back up above the 200E moving average and so a lot of people expected that we follow that cycle as opposed to the the first cycle. I always said look when your sample size is two then you could follow the first cycle you could follow the second cycle or you might not follow any of the cycles at all. That said anytime that an asset uh flirts with its 200E moving average that's usually a good time to buy. That's usually when the risk return is better on the on the long side than on the short side. The second data point that I had was that Bitcoin had been coiling up for 70 for 71 days with zero volatility. Now, if you look at the Ballinger bandwidth with and I'll see if I can actually get you get us a good indicator that actually shows the Ballinger band width. Here we go. If you look at the Ballinger bandwidth, it basically shows that when we got here, the Ballinger bands were so depressed or so compressed. And Ballinger bands measure volatility. And usually when there's no volatility and they compress, we get an explosive move either to the upside or to the downside. Now, what I noticed was that we had been lower than we had ever been before. In fact, not ever, but certainly lower than we had been in in recent history, so to speak. And so I thought look a move has to come. Now the move could have come up or could have come down. I was swayed more towards the upside because I because we were on the 200E moving average. And so that's exactly exactly how how it played out. And now we're in the midst of a very violent move. Now I'll be the first to admit that a lot of this move is because crypto was a a hated asset class and a lot of people were very short. And if you look at what happened in the first part of the of the move, um try and find your little data point somewhere. Um I should have a data point somewhere here. But ultimately the first part of this was definitely definitely definitely a short squeeze. You can see that that is the the shorts that were liquidated. The red bar here shows the shorts that were basically liquidated. It was the biggest liquidation event since the big liquidation event on the 10th of the 10th last year. and it was the biggest short liquidation on Bitcoin ever. Okay, so a big part of this move is a short liquidation. Um, but I want to also draw your attention to the following. If you look at the previous Bitcoin bare market and the beginning of the bull market, so this is a very similar period where you had a sideways chop. This is uh it started off in June 2022 and you had a sideways chop uh up until March 2023. Quite quite a long sideways chop. Let's just quickly go back to today's chart. You had a chop from Feb 2026. Remember the other one started in Mar in June or something. And you had a sideways chop until August. Now what you'll what you'll realize is that here that that date is around the 10th of March. So if if you go into daily that that date is around the 10th of March. What happened around the 10th of March 2023? Around the 10th of March 2023, Silic uh SVB Bank Silicon Valley Bank went bust. And what the Fed and the Treasury did in response is they came out and they said they just said today we're taking decisive action points to protect the US economy by strengthening our public confidence in the banking system. this step will ensure that. So basically they came out and they said we will backs stop the banks in the event that similar things happen and depositors deposits deposit depositors will be backstopped by the US treasury. That was a license that was the equivalent of adding more liquidity into the system that with Bitcoin gave Bitcoin a short squeeze. You can I mean it doesn't look like a very big candle now, but if I remember living through it, it was a very big candle. That's the That's the candle over there. We got a massive short squeeze the following week, which took us up about 30%. Then we slightly consolidated and that began a bull market where Bitcoin did where Bitcoin did a 5x. So it went from from that point from 20,000 all the way up 22,000 all the way up to 124,500. So the similarities here are uncanny, right? We had the big sideways chop. We touched the 200WE moving average. And then the reason why Bitcoin started moving is because Scott Besson came out and said we're doubling. And in fact, he said we're doubling, but it could be even more than doubling uh our Treasury by our longdated Treasury buybacks, which effectively means that they they they backstopping and they're putting in more liquidity to make sure that the Treasury market remains solid. >> Before we continue with the video, let's talk about your most important asset, your personal privacy. Now, you've probably never voluntarily handed your personal information to a data broker, but they have it anyway. Your name, home address, phone number, even details about your family are collected and sold to whoever is willing to pay for it. That's why today's sponsor, Delete Me, is a service I use to cut that down. Setup takes a few minutes, and after that, their team does all the work. They find where your information is listed, verify it, and submit removal requests to hundreds of data broker websites around the internet. Then they keep checking because these listings tend to come back. Since June 2024, they've been reviewing my listings, and my most recent report showed 335 listings reviewed last month alone. Scan the QR code here on the screen or go to joindeme.com/david, link down below, and use the code davidin for 20% off. take back control of your privacy today. Now, back to the video. There's the debate here. Uh I've read both sides. One, Bitcoin moved because of exactly what you said. The back the Treasury is backto stopping um outflows in the bond market and preventing yields from going higher. And Bitcoin did move on August 19th. And interestingly, it continued to move even after yields went back up the next day. We'll talk about that in more detail. But the other side says Bitcoin is just front running the Clarity Act. Some people in the no know that the Clarity Act is going to get passed and so it moved up on that day. Kind of a coincidence that it moved up on the same day the Treasury made that announcement. What's more likely to you? >> Okay. Well, let's talk about it. So, the first thing is right now as you can see on my screen, Poly Market suggests that there's a 25% chance that the Clarity Act will be passed into law. I've spoken to multiple people and they all believe that the chance is lower than 25%. That the clar that that the Clarity Act will be passed. Um regardless of that, even if the Clarity Act is passed, it has no effect on Bitcoin. So >> why is so low by the way? Why is that chance so low? I mean, isn't isn't >> because they need to get a certain number of votes >> in the certain number of votes, they need to switch 10 Democrats. So they all the Republicans and 10 Democrats. The problem is that there's three or four Republicans that have indicated that they're going to oppose the bill and they don't have the Democrats on sides. Now, look, it's been tabled for the 15th of September. I personally believe that it will pass because a lot of people are incentivized to make sure it passes and because there'll be a lot of negotiations as they normally are in US politics before the time and ultimately it could get passed. That said, even if so, nothing happened to make the Clarity Act go as high to make Bitcoin go as high as that. Also, the Clarity Act doesn't affect Bitcoin at all because remember there is clarity around Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a commodity. It's it's it's it's it doesn't need any more regulation. The Clarity Act is much more a crypto legislation which deals with all the other cryptos except Bitcoin. And so, this was not, you know, if you look at the big red the big green candle on Bitcoin, you know, and it came out 2 hours after the the announcement or one and a half hours after the announcement, the Scott Bessent announcement, gold started running and Bitcoin started running. And that's I think why why it happened here. >> Yeah. And I'm looking at my uh screen here. It's uh let me just allow uh my screen and I'll switch back to yours. So this is Zcash also moved up uh same day 19th of August. Right. This is all pointing to on 19th of August which confirms a theory that this is a move that is broad-based ac across cryptos that are reacting that the move is reacting to the treasuries announcement and um and movements in the bond market Ethereum as well. Um what is interesting to me uh which is the point I alluded to earlier is that uh Bitcoin and and to to an extent other cryptos did not come down when the US 10-year yield went back up the following day. Recall that on August 19th, uh the yields went down. The long end of the curve went down significantly and uh what happened was um everything went up. Okay. Then the next day, actually this is not a good chart, but the next day uh the yields went back down because uh sorry, the yields went back up and bond prices went back down because um markets just corrected. And on that day, stocks went down. So this was the 20th. >> Let me let me break it down for you. Let me break it down for you. It's pretty simple what happened there, right? >> Look at this interview that Scott Besson did with CNBC and he did this on let me just give you the exact date. I want to make it's the August 20th. >> So tell talk us through what you were trying to do here by announcing the increased size of the buybacks. Yeah, the we're trying to signal that we think that this is a thimly traded area of the market that we're we're in August and uh there's been a lot of corporate issuance that's influenced the market and you know we we believe that there are many underlying factors in ter that the market is not looking at and you know we we are going to make a market the in these we routinely do buybacks and we're going to increase the size of the buyback and you know Sarah I would note that it could be more than the 4 billion per issue. >> So he realized that he was fighting a battle against the bond vigilantes, right? And remember that remember what Scott Bass Besson's history is. I mean this is a guy that sat in George Soros's office and participated in in multiple he probably the smartest guy in the world to execute something like this right and so now he's basically gone out and he said remember the Fed don't have to do anything except talk the book and that's what he's basic the Fed and the Treasury and that's exactly what he's doing right now he's going out and he's talking the book and he's sending out a very clear message to say we are going to do whatever it takes to bring down the long end of the curve whether it means 4 billion or 8 billion he basically said it in nertain terms there's we're going to get the long end of the curve down. That's what he said. Um, and so that's the first thing. The second thing which I think you need to pay attention to is you need to pay attention to the fact that if something is not working, it doesn't mean that they're going to abandon it. It means that they're going to double down on it. And that's why Bitcoin didn't retreat. Because Bitcoin loves liquidity. Bitcoin loves this kind of action. That's what Bitcoin was created for. This was literally the use case that Bitcoin was created for. And when they throw 2 billion and it doesn't work and they throw 4 billion and it doesn't work and they may have to threaten to go all the way up to 8 billion or 10 billion 12 billion or whatever it is then Bitcoin loves that. That's music. That's music to our ears and that's why Bitcoin didn't retreat. So I read this tweet which was very similar from a company called Coinbird said this is not good. The US government's emergency move is already fading. Well, if you're a Bitcoin holder, it's the best news. If you're a gold holder, if you're a silver holder, it's the best news you've ever heard because they ain't going to retreat. And because they ain't going to retreat, the prices are just going to continue to go up. I want to show you something else. I want to show you something else. Um, you know, you mentioned that crypto was dead, and I always said that crypto was dead until you get one green candle, and then all of a sudden, everyone realizes just how underexposed they are to the asset class. And I want to actually show you the data around that. Right? So the first thing is let me show you the ETF data. This is the ETF data for in the last couple of weeks or this is from the 7th of August. So 100 in, 140 out, 7.8 in, 61 out, 131 out, 56 out. Okay. 297 in, 189 in, 517 million in, 66 million in, 307 million in. just those days alone are 1 and a half to two billion flowing back into the ETFs, right? And so, you know, it started off as a short squeeze and then people realized, hold on a second, the stock markets have run and they are at all-time highs. Gold's had a run. It's granted not at alltime highs. Crypto is the most beaten up asset class. It's been completely neglected. It's it's back at its 200E moving average and now everyone's piling into crypto. The ETFs are are piling into the the ETF investors are piling in where they can. They bought Bitcoin, but they bought much more Ethereum. So, let me show you another chart, which is the ETH BTC chart, which basically shows you on a relative basis how much more Ethereum is going up than Bitcoin. And let me just quickly give you a daily chart. I think it just shows it a bit better. And let me just get rid of some of our indicators here because we have too many indicators. Uh let's get rid of we don't need that. Um okay, that's the ETHBTC chart. And what you can see here is that the ETHBTC chart has also gone up by about 10% which means that ETH is outperforming Bitcoin by about 10% so far. And so ultimately it's not only a Bitcoin thing, it's a crypto thing. Um it's a crypto thing. And there are a lot of other crypto assets that have had explosive explosive moves. One of the ones that we we called very early and and have been riding for a long time is Zcash. You I think mentioned it earlier on today. Um um so try and get us a clean chart here somewhere. >> Yeah, Zcash went up in a straight line as well. It's a it's a liquidity story, isn't it? >> Well, no, Zcash is a little bit more interesting actually to be honest. So that's that's Zcash. Um you know, we called this very early. We've been holding it for a long time. um probably one of my biggest holds. And the reason why it's my biggest hold is because Zcash is really similar to Bitcoin. It works in the same proofof work algorithm. It has the same 21 million coins. The only difference between Zcash and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin is is um transparent and Zcash is anonymous. Now, the reason why I'm so excited about it is because the same people that got me into Bitcoin all those many years ago, the Vinklvos brothers, um, Naval Ravik and Barry Silbert, all of them are now cheering on Zcash. And the the moves in Zcash remind me very much of the early Bitcoin days. The same people are in the same explosive moves, the same fights. In fact, there's now the first Zcash ETF which starts trading on the 25th of August. on Tuesday, the first Zcash ETF starts trading. Um, and now, so that means Wall Street investors will now have access to Zcash. So Zcash, one of our one of my biggest and and most prominent positions at the moment. >> So going back to my um question, is this a liquidity story for all of cryptos to move? It's clearly not a Bitcoin story as you just demonstrated. It's Bitcoin, Ethereum, Zcash. We can keep going down the list, but we're not going to do that. There's there's hundreds of cryptos. I'm sure a lot of them move, some of them probably didn't move. This the point is right now we have a situation which as you said the treasury is trying to do everything they can. We're signaling to the market they're doing everything they can to prevent interest rates from going up. Risk assets love that. And so why in particular do you think capital will continue rotating into cryptos and not into high beta small cap AI stocks or something like that? >> I mean I think that that that money will definitely flow into high beta small cap AI stocks but I just want to show you something. So, this is the this is the Oh, let me just try and find us an ETF an ETF chart. Um, this is the Russell 2000. This is, you know, I guess the the 20,000 most investable stocks in the US, alltime high. This is the NASDAQ. I'm sure all your viewers know this chart, but, you know, for those that don't, that's the NASDAQ chart at all time highs. Had a parabol is on a parabolic run. And you compare that to the price of Bitcoin and you say, "Hold on a second. Where do you think that right now there's more return? Right, a depressed market that's just started an uptrend or a market that's hovering at all-time highs with very very high RSIs and kind of like very unhealthy charts. Now, I'm not a naysayer. I'm an in I am an investor in the S&P. I also own gold. I also own silver. But I I I a few weeks ago I reduced my AI and NASDAQ exposure and I put more money into crypto. And my investment team said, "You must be absolutely crazy." And I said, "No, I'd rather be buying the depressed asset class, not the one that's in in peak exuberance." And so, um, I think right now the risk return of being in crypto, and when I say crypto, it's, as you can see, this run is not just a Bitcoin run, it's a crypto run. Um, Bitcoin is the leader. Bitcoin will respond to extra liquidity and the rest of the crypto market respond to um to Bitcoin moves. And I'll just show you, this is the chart of the last week in crypto. Some of the big coins I'm talking to like big coins. Pump Fund up 100%. Athena up 100%. Zcash up 70%. Hyperlquid up 40%. Lighter which is an hyperlquid competitor up 40%. I mean the Trump meme coin I don't I don't want to get into meme coins. XRP up 50%. Now, tell me where you think investors are going to go if this carries on for another week. Cuz I think we both know why investors are going into the small AI companies cuz they're looking to make 94% a week and 71% a week and 59% a week. If this carries in cryp if this carries on in crypto for another week or two, then we get an explosion in crypto and we get we get back back into the bull market basically. >> Jesus. You know, I I was looking at uh charts earlier before our conversation, and it's not like Bitcoin and and cryptos haven't seen this kind of move before, but it's actually quite uncommon, correct me if I'm wrong, it's actually quite uncommon for these kinds of moves to happen so quickly within a matter of days. And and >> so actually scary. >> Actually, you're wrong. And I'll tell you that why you're wrong. >> You know, there's the old adage that says time in the market beats timing the market. And ultimately it means that you should stay invested because the majority of the returns actually come on very few days. So specifically in Bitcoin the majority of the return 5% of the days give you 42 42% of the entire gain. That's in the history of Bitcoin. 5% of the days give you 42% of the entire gain. That's a chart of what those gains are right. So this gain which was 100 a 90% gain was 23 days and then it went down for like probably another 23 days and then it went up another 100%. Then there was this move which was a 50% move was 10 days. This move was in a 15% a 15-day move 65%. So the moves up in Bitcoin of violent bull market bare market the moves up are violent and so so the problem is that most investors get sidelined because you know they they give up here and they give up here or they give up here or they give up after long chops but then you get an explosive move upwards. Now again I say I'm not sure that the bull market is the bare market is completely over. I think there's a very very very good chance but I do want to highlight that we have had periods in the bare market where in 20 days Bitcoin went up 42% and that was in 2023 in March 2023 the one that I showed you we went up 50% or 43% in 10 days. We then reversed some of the the the move but we then landed up it landed up being the beginning of a very very very aggressive bull market. Right. So, in Bitcoin, you shouldn't try and time the market. I've tried it. I've been a trader and I ultimately realized that Bitcoin has a very, very, very cruel way of giving you all the apps in just a matter of days. And if you get sidelined for the first two, three days, you've missed the entire run. >> So, basically, uh, going back to your, uh, the screen earlier, 5% of the moves happen in what? 143. Was it 143? 5% of the moves give you 42% of the gains in this sample size. >> 40. Yeah. 5% >> 70 trading days. 70 trading days out of 1,365 days gave you all all the returns. >> 5% of the days. Yeah. I'm looking at that stat and without knowing any other context. My first question is did we just miss this? Because if if it's only 5% of the days it gave you 42% of the gains. Um and everything just went up 50%. I I just did we just miss this? Well, let's I think the the best way to look at that is to actually go back and say, okay, well, let's take the move that we've had, which has been it's just been a oneweek move. It's a 7-day move, right? And in that 7-day move, we've moved up 20 23%. Okay? Now, if you go historically and you say, you know, first of all, if it was a 7-day move, it would be the shortest move ever, right? And if it was 20 something%, it would be one of the smallest moves ever, right? Now, I mean, it can happen. I'm just giving you what the data has told me about the historical moves, right? This is um a really interesting dilemma because on the one hand you've got um you're is it fair to say that this rally in order for it to stay we have to trust that Scott Besson and his friends are going to continue to put pressure on the bond market. Uh because if he doesn't do that then we're back to we're back to where we were a month ago. >> Do you see any way that they backtrack from what he's just done? I mean, he's just come out aggressively both in action and in words. I I showed you one interview, but there's multiple interviews that he's done during the week where he's basically reiterated the same message. Now, what would happen if he if he backtracked on that message? Oh, we're not going to support it anymore. I'm not sure that I'm not sure that that's a Scott Bessant uh that's the Scott Bessant way. I think we both know Scott Bessant. He is astute. He is credible. He has intent and he's basically told you what he's going to do and every other time that he's told you what he's going to do, he's followed through. >> Why do you think the government, specifically Bessim, went on a bunch of media and announced this publicly? He could have just done it and not made it a big media point. Yeah. >> Because the one has a cost and the one is just words. If you look at what they did in 2023 around Silicon Valley Bank, they did nothing. They just said that they were ready to backs stop the banks and they extended credit lines for longer if required. That's it. No action required, no spend required. Right? So remember at that level words are extremely powerful as a policy tool because just your words and your reassurance can basically summarize them can can actually basically uh uh uh uh move the market. So I think I think it was very smart and I think they were very smart putting Scott Bessent there because the market knows that Scott Bessant if anyone is going to do what they say they're going to do it's Scott Bessant. They didn't say they didn't put out Wash. Why? Because a it's not really his division but also the market doesn't know him and trust him yet right. He's not he doesn't have that the market buying and the credibility. He's been playing a game of cats and mouse with the market saying I'm not going to tell you anything. You're going to work it out. you must you must work out the data. We don't even know what our inflation metrics are. We're not going to tell you anything. Scott Besson, on the other hand, is known as a person that follows through, right? And he's also known as a person who's very astute in the management of currencies. I mean, he made his money on the collapse of of multiple currencies with Soros. I mean, this guy knows what he's doing, >> right? Uh if someone were to ask you then based on how things have moved in the past, how you think this revival, if you want to call a revival of the crypto markets is going to play out. In other words, if this is truly the start of a new cycle, like you alluded to, where does this go? I mean, look, I don't want to sell you and stuff like that, but I'll just give you the data. The data says that every time we go, we we beat the previous all-time high, right? Like it's happened. the charts up and to the right. And so, you know, you can kind of say, well, we're never going to go up into the right. The last high was 125,000, which is about 80% from here. Um, so I mean, you know, where do you go from there? 150, $200,000. Ultimately though, I think that Bitcoin is, to be honest, the least exciting instrument in the next cycle because I think that the in the previous cycles, it was all about getting acceptance and Bitcoin was the king, etc., etc., But now you have actual protocols in crypto that are making a lot of money and are paying dividends to their investors, right? So like they're paying dividends by buying and burning tokens on the open market as opposed to actually sending them dividend checks in the mail, right? And you know in the previous cycles there were very few protocols that actually had usage but now there's a lot of protocols and the protocols actually have a lot of usage and um the protocols actually have a lot of usage and they're actually making a lot of money for investors. I mean, I'll give you one one of them, which is Pump Fund. Pump Fund is, you know, the memecoin launchpad. They make a million dollars a day, right? And they burn half a million dollars a day worth of Pump Fund stock or or or tokens. Hyperlid Hyperlquid also making millions of dollars every single day and burning half of that. Um, so and there's multiple of these. I've just given you two examples, but there's multiple of these. And so I think that you finally got product market fit. you finally got crypto protocols actually being used and generating and making real money which is by the way a lot more than I can say for a lot of the AI companies and um these crypto assets are depressed and I think to be honest if we do get the clarity act then I think it's like you know the one thing that could slow us down and again I say slow us down because the clarity act is priced to not be passing and the SEC and the CFTC have basically come out and said look if the clarity act doesn't pass. We're taking matters into our own hands and we're going to we're going to regulate this thing through rules. It's not it's not ideal because ultimately if the Democrats win the next election or if they win the House or whatever whatever they you know whatever happens then the SEC's rules may be changed when they put in a new SEC chair that could happen. But you know if it does pass then I think it's it's you know as as they say in crypto it's up and to the right up into Vajala. >> Can you take uh this chart that you have on the screen and just zoom out a little bit? Um, I'd like to ask you if you think $60,000 is the bottom. And the reason is, I think I've mentioned this to you in the past. I've just noticed that in the previous two bull cycles, the trough was where the bottom, sorry, the trough of that cycle of the uh bare cycle, the subsequent bare cycle after a top was the top of the previous bull cycle. So, um, if you look at 2023, for example, it bottomed around 17K. That was the top in 20 uh uh 18 2017 late 2017. Yeah. And so now I'm >> That was the top. Yeah. That was So then that would have been the top for us which was 68,000 more or less give or take. And we and we got down to like 58,000. So it's it's give or take. >> I'll tell you that there's no rules. And I say why there's no rules? Because the sample size is very small, right? >> The 200E moving average is a good line. So here you can see in 2017 it just bounced off a 200 day moving day moving average. 200E moving average. You then have it. This was co and we just dropped below the 200E moving average. Here we dropped below for 40ome weeks and we went down about 30%. So that's the 200E moving average. That's the bottom 26%. And if I show you the duration of the number of weeks, we broke below it and we ultimately landed up spending 40 weeks under it before we broke back above it. So there's no rules but suffice to say that if you're buying on the 200E moving average there or thereabout then I think that you know the risk return the riskreward basically is very much skewed in your favor and so I think we don't try and pick bottoms because you know you never pick a bottom it never works but I think you just got to buy in the right vicinity and to me I'm not telling everybody to start buying like crazy now but I think it's time to DCA back into crypto before the masses get you >> great and uh in terms of how uh the rest of the markets will perform. You said that Bitcoin is probably one of the least least interesting things in this bull market. Um are you so you're assuming that dominance is going to peak around 60%. We're at 59.59 now. Bitcoin dominance. Um everything else is going to start picking up. There was an era in the last couple years where uh Bitcoin became the institutional play and everything else kind of got sidelined a little bit in terms of growth. >> Yeah. But remember now Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset and to move a $2 trillion asset you need a lot more capital inflows versus ETH which is a you know a much smaller asset. Show you something else. Um again I'm looking at this app called Banter Bubbles. We to be honest we actually own it. We we own one called cryptobubbles and banter bubbles. You can see stocks and crypto portrayed as as as bubbles. What I'm going to do now is I'm going to change the base currency to be against Bitcoin. So this I'm going to just quickly make all the coins against Bitcoin and I want to show you what happened in the first week of the run. In the first week or even the first month of the run, what you can see the green bubbles are the ones that outperform Bitcoin and the number is the the amount that they outperform Bitcoin by. What you can see is a lot of them actually outperformed Bitcoin by a lot. Pump Fun outperformed Bitcoin by 136%. Athena outperformed Bitcoin by 62%. Uh VVV which is Venice token outperformed by 16%. Generally what happens in the beginning of a bull run is people wait for Bitcoin to run and to get confident that the market's actually coming back and then once that happens so you said will 60 be the top for dominance I actually I'm not sure and the reason is it depends how aggressively Bitcoin moves up and how quickly cuz generally people wait for the market for Bitcoin they wait for confidence in Bitcoin and then the money flows down down the risk curve to ETH uh and to all the other ones and So, and so I don't know. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if we went back up to 61 and maybe even 62. And that wouldn't be a bad thing because dominance increasing while price of Bitcoin increases means people are not running into Bitcoin from altcoins, but they but they're coming from outside into Bitcoin. Dominance increasing while the price is decreasing means people are running away from altcoins and going into Bitcoin. And that's not what's happening here. So, I'm I'm pretty okay with dominance going up because that's what actually always happens. If you look at 2023 because that's the one we've been looking at. Notice what happened in 2023. Look at the the dominance chart, right? Yeah. Dominance chart went up all the way up to 12th of July 2025. >> Let's go back to a Bitcoin chart. Trying to show you what that means. Bitcoin USD. 12th of July 2025 is here, right? So that's 12th of July 2025. As you can see, Bitcoin Bitcoin um uh uh topped over here and there was a very small period where the altcoins actually outperformed Bitcoin. It was a tiny period over there. So a increasing dominance in a bull market is actually not a bad thing. >> Okay. So when we're asking ourselves how do we pick which subsector or types of coins to go into if let's say everything else is going to be higher beta than versus Bitcoin. Um where do we go is the question in this bull cycle. How would you how would you how would you answer that question? What's the thought process? >> Pretty simple. Pretty simple. Um I think that if you look at crypto you need to have Bitcoin in your portfolio because that's just the base asset. You then need to have layer ones in your portfolio. Now when I say layer ones, the layer ones are the the the the blockchain rails that all the other applications are built on. I think the winners of the block of that have been already selected. I think it's Ethereum. I think it's Salana and then there's a far chance that Sooie might be one. Then it's all about the actual applications that generate money and have a mechanism to give money back to their users. Right now a good example of that is Hyperlquid. Hyperlquid is a derivatives platform and ultimately they make a lot of money on trading fees and they give money back to their their users by buying and burning the tokens. That's a great app. Pump Fund, the same thing. Ultimately now you're looking for revenue generating networks that have network effect and have a mechanism to give revenue back to their token holders. And if you've got those three criteria, that's probably a good investment. And if not, then you're you're throwing dots at the dot board. And remember, in crypto, very little money can move prices a lot. So, I'm not saying you won't make money. I'm just saying that in the long term, you won't manage to keep the money. >> Yes. Excellent. Well, thank you very much, Ron. By the way, where can we go to follow uh well, not follow you in general, but also the uh the bubbles, the banter bubbles and the crypto bubbles. It's a very good tool. >> So, there's an app. It's on the app store on iOS, on uh on Apple. CryptoBubbles or Banter Bubbles. The difference between the two is that Banterbubbles also has stocks. So if you if you also do stocks, then you should probably get Banterbubbles. Uh if not, you can use CryptoBubbles. Um uh you can find me at Cryptoman Run on on Twitter and also on Banter, Cryptobanter on YouTube. I do a daily show, one of the biggest uh shows in crypto. I do a daily show and I do weekend shows. I'm doing a show just after this. So yeah. >> Very cool. Well, I appreciate your hard work and appreciate you updating us on uh this current event. very very uh important move. So let's follow uh Ran links down below and uh stay up to date. I think he um talks about this every single day. So follow follow him links down below. Thank you Ran. We'll speak next time. Take care for now >> Dave. Thank you very much. >> Thank you for watching. Please do like and subscribe.