MASSIVE NEWS for the Stock Market... (MUST WATCH)

Just when you thought the markets couldn't get crazier, we have big news to share with you in today's video. Some exciting news as well that will be moving the markets coming tomorrow morning and potentially offset some of the negative news we got around well the new trade war with Canada. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a lot to get into today. The only thing that I ask you to do on this channel ever is to hit the like button for the YouTube algorithm to help push this video out to more people that need to see it. And if you guys want to come join the trading community where we are looking for opportunities that Wall Street is ignoring, one of the only advantages you have as a retail investor is you're not trying to keep your clients with monthly or quarterly profit statements. You can go out and make decisive investments and massively outperform the markets. We are up 95 a.5% year to date by beating Wall Street to the opportunity. If you guys want to come join us, obviously not financial advice, not a recommendation. Future returns are not guaranteed. All I'm doing is pointing out opportunity. That link is down below in the description of today's episode. Okay, so we got a lot to get into, guys. First and foremost, Iran's top politicians urgent end to the war. President and parliament speakers say Thran needs to negotiate an exit and shore up its economy while it has leverage. And a lot of this has to do with the Iranian realale that crashed to a new all-time low against the US dollar. This currency, Iran's currency, has lost around 97.5% of its value in just one year. And obviously just like every other government around the world, they want to stay in power. So if you're just getting economically slaughtered, that is the biggest motivation in the world to end the conflict because what happens if people can't feed their families? They will cause an uprising, they will get you out of power and that's not what Iranian leadership wants to happen. Well, also in the news today, following that news, the Trump administration has reportedly asked Pakistan to send a proposal to Iran to keep the back channel open as surging oil prices and the November midterms increase pressure on Donald Trump to find a way out, per Iranian outlets, Reuters and Iran's foreign ministry. Pakistan's army chief field marshall is set to visit Thran Monday for highlevel talks. An Iranian source told Reuters he will discuss peace under Islamabad'sou Trump's sanctions threat request to Iran to go back to the negotiating table, the Pakistan, Turkey Saudi agreement and the Houthi issue with Iranian leaders. Trump needs lower oil prices and political relief before November. Iran however appears unwilling to provide either without major concessions. Thrron has consistently refused to reopen the strait or return to negotiations unless the US meets its conditions. 300 billion in compensation, the liftings of sanctions, the release of frozen assets, and the end of the naval blockade, which we know that Donald Trump a couple of weeks ago said he would be willing to walk away from the Iranian conflict if the straight of her moose opened without fees or tolls. And again, this is because of the midterms. I I don't want you guys to hang your hats on this. I don't want you to leverage your portfolio to this idea, but you guys have to understand from a political perspective, voters vote with their pocketbooks, okay? They don't vote based on who has the best policies. They don't vote with logic. They never have. People vote by how they feel around the economy, their jobs, can they buy a house, can they buy a car? That's what moves the needle in voter turnouts. And I know you're probably a logical person. You're investing in your future. You're trying to get rich. You're trying to make as much money as possible in a very logical way. That's why you're watching this video. That's why you're invested into the stock market. But average people, they don't care about promises. They care about how their checkbooks are feeling today. And the objective truth is it is harder to buy a house today than it was two years ago. It is harder to finance a vehicle today than it was 2 years ago. There is more job in security today than there is than there was two years ago. Electricity bills and living costs are higher today than they were 2 years ago. Republicans are going to get smoked in the midterms if gas prices are over $4 a gallon heading into November. I am not political. I hate really I really just hate all government. I'm really just very anti-government. Politicians will never help you. That's that's my it's kind of how I feel about it. Okay. So, I don't say this as loving or hating either side. Everyone obviously has their their preferences at the end of the day. Some are better than others from a capitalistic perspective, but if Trump does nothing, Republicans lose the midterms in an awful way. Well, that leads me to believe that Trump probably wants to get some deescalation before the midterms. And that is good if you are investing in the stock market. But again, I want to be very clear about this because there's levels to this game. The markets are not all created equal. Yes, the Iran war ending, oil falling, the Fed no longer threatening to hike rates, that is a uniformal positive on the market. There is zero negative impacts from the Iran war ending. It's all positive. But some areas will benefit a lot more than others. And if we break down how the markets are structured, if you look at the S&P or the NASDAQ, that is heavily weighted towards MAG 7 and semiconductors. Well, think about it like this. If oil goes to a hundred plus dollars a barrel again, who is benefited? Not necessarily benefited, but who is impacted less by that? Mag 7 and semiconductors. Who really cares, right? If I'm investing in Google, I could kind of care less what happens to oil. If I'm invested in Nvidia, I could kind of care less what happens to oil. So if the Iran war ends, it's not as big of a positive for the broader indexes like areas that that control the indexes, mag 7 and semiconductors, but it's a really good positive development for areas like cyclicals, smaller communication services, nonAI industrials, consumer defensives, nonAI financials, maybe software and other related areas. So long story short, while I think the Iran war or any deescalation there is good for the broader markets in general, it is much better for the broadening trade and nonAI areas of the market. Iranian president says the memorandum of understanding with the United States is the best means available to Iran to break out of the state of deadlock in the war. Iran's top leaders push to end the war, shoring up economy as hardliners demand defiance. The signal is significant. President of Pakistan and Parliament Speaker Galabof are publicly prioritizing an end to the war publicly, key words, an economic stabilization, reflecting growing pressure from sanctions, the blockade, and a sharply deteriorating domestic economy. Iranian president says we cannot attract investments under the current state of stagnation. And Iranians president Iranian president says former Supreme Leader Ali Kummani wanted to end the conflict with the US through peace talks before he was assassinated. And it was also reported today that Iran discovered tens of billions of dollars worth of gas like natural gas in an oil field in the Fars region. So that's also motivation to likely end this. Iran just found a payday and they have no way to exploit that. And this comes as we are going to get our press conference from Treasury Secretary Scott Besson tomorrow announcing economic devastation and sanctions measures against Iran and countries who help them. Scott Besson recently said, quote, "Any remaining tie to Thrron will hasten a nation's economic obliviation, whether that tie be purposefully constructed or willingfully ignored." Now, that is a double-edged sword. Okay? So, we might get some form of deescalation before this press conference Monday. That's kind of how it sounds. At the same time, you know who's going to get sanctioned? China. China buys about 90% of Iran's exported oil. So yeah, that's that's a problem the markets don't exactly need at this point. That is a risk as of now. And also in the news today, quote, Iran is losing its grip on Hormuse. Straight traffic explodes nearly 400%. Axios reported that 16 million barrels of oil have moved through the straight of Hermoose overnight. Moving into separate news over this weekend. Look at this. Q3 was one of the sharpest hedge fund degrossing periods over the last decade. Prior ones occured near market bottoms. We may get near-term turbulence, but odds are elevated for a multi-month rally. This chart is from Goldman Sachs. And you can see in Q3 you had massive deleveraging. In fact, about 8 percentage points, which is quite a lot. I mean, you can see the only other um period where there was more degrossing was literally COVID, the COVID crash, which was the most violent crash in history. I mean, if you were investing during COVID, it was it was insane. I remember one day, I think it was March 13th or March 20th, can't remember one of those days, the markets opened down 7%. You got a circuit breaker. markets closed for 15 minutes and then they opened within five minutes you were down 12%. You got a second circuit breaker. You were down 15%. And a lot of people thought you were going to fall 20% and the markets were going to close for the whole day. I mean that was insane. And I mean this was the second biggest degrossing event since at least 2018. And this is a big reason why I've been telling you guys to be careful of AI hardware. I think some hardware stocks will do well and execute well, but hedge funds and institutions, they're not going to be rushing back into AI hardware stocks. And that trade is effectively over with at this point. They're kind of like just really high elevated expectations, just normal stocks at this point. Like there's nothing exciting about AI hardware. As I've explained to you guys, the new AI trade is robotics, automation, AI software, and cyber security. That is where the next tenbagger lives. And also in the news today, it says here from the Financial Times, Enthropic's best AI model struggles to attract users as cheaper tools thrive. I came across this post as well from over this weekend from Chad here. He works uh with Palenteer and he says quote I think 90% of the conversations I'm having with executives in the last two weeks. They have told me they are reducing spend on tokens and moving to openweight models. So, I just took a screenshot of that uh post that I just shared you and asked Gemini, "How could this trend of companies lowering token spend at Frontier Labs and using cheaper models instead help or hurt the AI trade?" And it says here, "Frontier Lab revenue squeeze. Top closed model providers rely heavily on enterprise API revenue. Right fitting models routing 80% of routine workflows to two openweight tiers and leaving only complex logic to $25 frontier models erodess the high margin revenue base of companies like OpenAI and Enthropic and it uh highlights the deflation of the AI enterprise bubble. The original thesis assumed enterprises would blindly pay whatever it took to access frontier capabilities. CFOs actively enforcing capital discipline and demanding clear links between token spend and production features indications that the initial brute force check checkbook phase of corporate AI adoption has peaked does actually say that this could be a massive boost to hardware demand but I would really push back on that. I think Gemini is uh not understanding this correctly because Enthropic and open open AAI are some of the two biggest um contractors of data center contracts, right? Like Enthropic alone is spending tens of billions of dollars per year to lease some of XAI's, you know, data centers, right? If Anthropic starts their growth begins to slow down, some of the future contracts that are being, you know, talked about and actively signed to be in some of the new data centers, those are going to be under problems which are going to affect hardware. So while Gemini says this is bullish for hardware, I don't think the number one number two AI companies if their revenue begins to slow that's good for hardware. So Gemini made a little bit of a mistake here. But it says the enterprise integrators this is bullish for them like a palenteer value shifts away from the base model towards workflow automation, orchestration and data security. So, this is one reason I still really like the AI software trade because look, enterprises, they're not going to vibe code their own AI software tools. That was a gimmick sold to, you know, novice investors. That's that's never going to happen, right? That's like Walmart. If Walmart tried to replicate like a Service Now, it's going to cost them 5 to 10 times their subscription price to do that. The only world imaginable that that actually makes sense for Walmart to vibe their own Service Now, you know, alternative is if they're selling that to other businesses. No business is going to, you know, replace their Service Now subscription with a Walmart vibecoded alternative. Really, who buys that? I I I don't buy that for a second. So the AI software stocks, the orchestration names, they are going to benefit from this. And Gemini clearly says the Frontier Labs, this is uh bearish for them. And again, it's just one other reason why you want to be careful of the AI trade as we know it today, the hardware trade, right? And this is a again a big reason why I think we're moving into the new AI trade. Robotics, automation, AI software, cyber security. These are long-term big winners, durable AI winners that Wall Street hasn't figured out yet. But again, keep in mind throughout all of this good news and bad news and events for this upcoming week during midterm election years, September has historically been the S&P 500's worst month and you tend to fall almost 2%. Before October and November are really strong months and that probably happens again. I do expect you you are going to get more volatility and again keep in mind like you tend to get the volatility before the midterms but October is a really strong month November is a really strong month. December can be a little bit on the weaker side at least in the beginning of the month but you really want to be thinking about the next year. The next 12 months after a midterm election tend to be uniformally strong. And Carl here, he is a CNBC uh contributor for a very long time. U he shared this uh post from the Financial Times where it says best AI model struggles to attract users as cheaper tools thrive and says quote this breaks a pattern of corporate users defaulting to the most powerful models. If sustained, the shift could radically alter the business model of Frontier Labs. So again, we have a lot of moving parts. The markets are a bit weird right now between the Iran conflict, the implications for the Fed and still pricing in rate hikes over the next 6 to 12 months, between the new trade war with Canada, the looming D-Day, economic D-Day with Iran and what implications that could have for China, what's going on with the AI trade, just all of these things. There's a lot going on in the markets right now, but I would really encourage you guys again to think out here for the next three months or six months or 12 months. Where do you think the markets will be then and position for that right now? And that is basically what we do in the trading community to find those opportunities before Wall Street even has a chance to think about them because Wall Street they are focused on keeping their clients keeping their fees right staying in business by putting up monthly or quarterly profit statements. And that's why big money they all crowd into the same trades. They're all chasing the same trades until they don't work anymore. If you can identify the new trades and the new trends before Wall Street FOMOs into them, you're gonna make a killing in the stock market. So, ladies and gentlemen, I hope this video helped you. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, get a jumping start on Wall Street, really leaps and bounds um ahead of Wall Street. That link is down below in the description of today's episode. Hit the like button and subscribe to the channel on your way out of today's video. Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next