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Now, one of the groups I would continue to pick up is those AI infrastructure stocks. These would include everyone along that AI picks and shovels play. The direct beneficiaries of all that spinning like Nvidia, ticker NVDA
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These would include everyone along that AI picks and shovels play. The direct beneficiaries of all that spinning like Nvidia, ticker NVDA Broadcom AVGO Marll Technologies, MRVL
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The direct beneficiaries of all that spinning like Nvidia, ticker NVDA Broadcom AVGO Marll Technologies, MRVL, which just got a huge deal with Google last week
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Marll Technologies, MRVL, which just got a huge deal with Google last week, Arista Networks, A&E, a leader in the networking space, and Micron Technologies, MU.
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Another group that can actually benefit from these higher rates is the financial sector stocks especially insurers, brokerages and select banks. Their insurers can reinvest their maturing bonds at the higher yields gradually increasing that investment income while brokerages earn more on that customer cash and the interestbearing assets. Banks can benefit as well when that higher long-term rates support those loan yields and the net interest margin. ... In this group, I would be looking to stocks like the insurers chub, ticker CB, and progressive PGR along with Charles Schwab, ticker SCW.
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Now, one of the groups I would continue to pick up is those AI infrastructure stocks. These would include everyone along that AI picks and shovels play. ... Cloudflare ticker NE, Soundhound AI, ticker SU and Alibaba ticker BABA.
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In this group, I would be looking to stocks like the insurers chub, ticker CB, and progressive PGR along with Charles Schwab, ticker SCW. A Schwab is one of the cleaner brokerage plays earning interest on client cash, margin loans, others other interestbearing assets.
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The bigger banks can also win here including JP Morgan Chase ticker JPM generating $95 billion in net interest income last year and a massive lowcost deposit base along with Bank of America ticker BAC which is one of the more rates sensitive than JPM and could benefit from those higher rates.
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The bigger banks can also win here including JP Morgan Chase ticker JPM generating $95 billion in net interest income last year and a massive lowcost deposit base along with Bank of America ticker BAC which is one of the more rates sensitive than JPM and could benefit from those higher rates.
Transcrição Completa
Bond yields are surging and it could completely reshape the stocks you want to own. Two massive forces, trillions in government borrowing and an explosive AI spending boom are competing for investment dollars pushing interest rates higher and crushing some companies under the weight of their own debt. That is the next big shock. Nobody is looking that far ahead and it could trigger the next stock market crash. I know this is all kind of economics nerd level, but I'm going to break it down for you along with the seven stocks you need to be buying ahead of this turn in the stock market. Understand that Treasury bond yields, the interest rate on government debt, have surged to their highest since before the 2008 crash. The rate on the 10-year Treasury is up 3/4 of a percent since March to 4.7%. And if that doesn't sound like much, it is a giant move in interest rates. In fact, the interest rate on that 10-year Treasury is as high as it's been since 2007, just before the global financial crisis that almost pushed us into a depression. That matters because Treasury rates help set the cost of borrowing, the other interest rates for both consumers and businesses. And that amount of interest the government has to pay on its $40 trillion in debt. When Treasury rates rise, mortgage rates, corporate borrowing that fuels growth and rates across the entire economy go higher, slowing down borrowing and the economy. But then it's worse than that because the two biggest factors pushing interest rates up are not going to stop. And it's going to cause the first domino default that could trigger a bigger stock crisis. That's because behind all the inflation fear, it's really just two factors driving interest rates higher. Massive government spending deficits not just in the US but governments around the world borrowing trillions of dollars to fund that spending. US national debt passed $40 trillion this week with 20 trillion of that just in the last 10 years. The US government is forecast to increase its spending to $7 trillion this year. A historic deficit of 6% of the entire economy and that will all need to be financed by borrowing more. Nobody in Washington is talking about cutting spending anymore. That train wreck isn't slow motion anymore. Now, the second factor here is the trillions of dollars being spent to build out AI infrastructure and data centers. Just the five major hyperscalers, that's Amazon Microsoft Alphabet Meta and Oracle are expected to spend a trillion dollars next year. And that number could be underestimated by as much as $3 trillion. While some of that spending is coming from their cash flows, the Journal reported that every one of those companies is borrowing money through what's called offbalance sheet entities. That's a way to borrow money that doesn't show up on your own financial statements until much later. That little accounting trick has helped raise trillions of dollars in funding without making the companies look as risky in debt as they actually are, but it is going to have a big effect on interest rates. So, folks, not only is the government borrowing trillions of dollars, but now you've got the AI boom pouring trillions more of bonds into the market and just basic economic supply and demand. When that supply booms, then investors pay a lower price for the bonds and the interest rate surges. Now remember, bond prices and yields or those interest rates move in opposite directions. When investors demand a lower price to buy all this new debt from the government and hyperscalers, that automatically means a higher interest rate. Again, a deeper analysis than maybe you want to go into, but there is a hidden threat here that nobody is talking about. That borrowing by governments and the AI hyperscalers isn't going to stop. Google isn't canceling Gemini because somebody in accounting noticed that that the 10-year Treasury hit 4.8% interest rate. So, what I'm trying to do here with you, what I want you to do is if you follow this through, you see the interest rates are only going to continue to run higher. Now, as long as the big tech companies continue to spend, that AI spending might not cause a full-on stock crash, but it is going to hit almost every other part of the economy. The housing market is already busted with mortgage rates topping 6.6%, 6% the highest they've been in more than a year and also at the point we're just before the 2008 housing crash. New home construction plunged 12% in July and the housing market is having its worst year since 2011 with rates just too expensive for buyers. Now higher rates also create a massive crowding out for businesses and the rest of the economy. GDP grew just 1 and a.5% last quarter and dipped into negative territory last year. AI tech companies are in an arms race that is going to keep borrowing no matter what the cost. But other companies just cannot do it. Interest rates are getting so high that companies across nearly every sector are pulling back on their financing growth, postponing expansions, even cutting payroll and further weakening this economy. Basically, folks, you've got the federal government and five of the biggest companies on earth standing in front of the bank line saying, "Hey, we'll take everything you've got, and good luck to everyone else standing behind them." So now, even if this doesn't cause a recession, and that is a big if, and even if AI hyperscalers continue to borrow supporting those tech stocks, it is going to crush two groups of stocks that I want to highlight so you can avoid them. Then reveal the stocks that are going to hold up as the market shakes out from this higher rates. Before I show you those stocks though, first though, if you haven't yet, use the special invite link below to join me on the Blossom Investing app and see every stock in my portfolio. It's totally free to download and use and helps support this channel, so I appreciate that. You're also going to see what over 500,000 investors are talking about in the social feed. So, look for that invite link below or just scan the QR code here. Now, one of the biggest dangers and this is going to destroy a lot of investors portfolios is companies already buried in debt and they get hit on both sides here as rates slow in the economy as sales weaken, especially for those consumer-driven companies. At the same time, every dollar in debt they're refinancing comes back at a much higher rate, eating into their profits and just leaving a cash flow nightmare. Craft Hind is a good example here. Even after paying down some of its debt, it still saddled under $19 billion in debt. The stock has rebounded 5% this year after a crushing 30% loss over the last 5 years. But this is a company seeing sales shrink by over a percent per year. Profits expected to fall by 21% this year and paying nearly a billion dollars just in interest expense. Now, what happens with so many of these highly indebted companies is the stock starts to suffer as Wall Street looks ahead to those mounting problems and the slowing growth. The stock falls, but investors not thinking it through, start buying on that dip. They buy in at 35, then they double down at 30, and then they buy more at 25 and buy $20 a share. They've been cut so many times by this falling knife that they just panic sell and give up. Now, some of these stocks never recover. Some have a quick bounce like Craft Hind, but all of them are traps for investors. looking for those cheap stocks and will get hit over this next year. This is something I'm watching very closely in my own portfolio because I have made this mistake in the past as well, thinking that a stock on sale means a good value. In this kind of market, folks, before I even look at valuation, I want to know how much debt the company owes and how big of a problem this is going to be. One way to check this for each of your stocks with a high amount of debt, go to the balance sheet, those financial statements, find the net debt. Now, that's the amount of interestbearing debt minus how much cash the company has on hand. For example, for Craft, we add up the current portion of long-term debt in these current liabilities. That's $1.38 billion plus the long-term debt of 17.6 billion. Then minus out that $2.68 billion in total cash for a net debt of $16.3 billion. Then what you're going to do, you're going to go to the income statement and find this IBIDA, which is the earnings generated before taxes and depreciation. here $5.5 billion for craft hinds over the last year. Now if you can't find IBIDA you can use this operating income for a quick check but here you want to find the net debt to IBIDA or net debt divided by IBIDA which is that $16.3 billion in debt divided by the 5.5 billion for craft or about 2.96 times net debt to IBIDA. As a general rule anything under two times is healthy between two to three times net debt to IBIDA it's kind of a caution a yellow sign. Anything above that three times or especially four times, that's when you start to need to seriously be rethinking this stock because debt is out of control. Now, again, folks, I know this is a lot of accounting nerd talk and probably deeper into the analysis than you want to go, but you need to be doing this because this is going to be happening. Those interest rates are not coming down. They're probably going only higher. And all of these companies with a massive amount of debt on their balance sheet, it is going to come back and bite them in the ass. And it's going to bite their investors, too. Now, the other group I would be extremely careful with this is on dividend stocks because those higher bond yields create a direct competition for income investors. Folks, if you can earn an almost 5% yield on government guaranteed 10-year bonds and even more, 5.3% on the 30-year bond, that stock yielding 3 to 4% dividend income becomes much less attractive. In fact, just let me know in the comments if you could get a 5% guaranteed yield from treasuries. What dividend yield would a stock need to pay you before before you take that extra risk in the shares? 6% 8% maybe, maybe higher. Let me know in the comments below. So, in these dividend stocks, investors are going to be demanding a higher dividend yield, which also means a lower share price. Add in the fact that a lot of these high yield dividend sectors are like utilities, REITs, and telecom stocks are also ones with the highest amount of debt, and you get pressure on both sides. that higher borrowing costs hitting earnings and the higher treasury yields holding down the stock valuation. Now, before I cover the stocks that will benefit from this, that surge in treasury yields, I don't think this necessarily means a stock market crash this year or maybe even next. Higher yields will slow the economy and squeeze dividend stocks. But as long as that massive spending spree by tech companies keeps on going, that's going to support economic growth and the overall market. Those trillions in AI spending contributed more than a 1 and a.5% to total economic growth last year. Almost all of that 2% total growth rate in GDP. The bigger risk here does come next year because what eventually breaks this market is is clearly that AI capex spending. And companies are in an allout arms race right now, but eventually they either build out all of what they need and can slow down what they're spending or that sales growth just fails to justify the spending. Even a slowdown in that AI spending is going to be like a gut punch to investor mood and those high-flying tech stocks holding up the market could collapse. Now again with the arms race and AI spending we likely don't see that kind of a scenario for probably at least another 8 to 12 months. So one of the groups I would continue to pick up is those AI infrastructure stocks. Now, these would include everyone along that AI picks and shovels play. The direct beneficiaries of all that spinning like Nvidia, ticker NVDA Broadcom AVGO Marll Technologies, MRVL, which just got a huge deal with Google last week, Arista Networks, A&E, a leader in the networking space, and Micron Technologies, MU. Also though to the second order beneficiaries of that AI boom like Cloudflare ticker NE, Soundhound AI, ticker SU and Alibaba ticker BABA. Another group that can actually benefit from these higher rates is the financial sector stocks especially insurers, brokerages and select banks. Their insurers can reinvest their maturing bonds at the higher yields gradually increasing that investment income while brokerages earn more on that customer cash and the interestbearing assets. Banks can benefit as well when that higher long-term rates support those loan yields and the net interest margin. The key here is targeting those financially strong companies because the weaker banks can still get crushed if the higher rates eventually cause loan defaults and credit losses from customers. In this group, I would be looking to stocks like the insurers chub, ticker CB, and progressive PGR along with Charles Schwab, ticker SCW. A Schwab is one of the cleaner brokerage plays earning interest on client cash, margin loans, others other interestbearing assets. Net interest revenue was already up 16% in the first quarter of this year. The bigger banks can also win here including JP Morgan Chase ticker JPM generating $95 billion in net interest income last year and a massive lowcost deposit base along with Bank of America ticker BAC which is one of the more rates sensitive than JPM and could benefit from those higher rates. If you're still looking for stocks to buy, I got you covered with a video on the right here. Click through and see the stocks I'm buying right now. 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