Stock Investors, We Now Have 24 Hours (Brace Yourselves)

Well, stock investors, the 24-hour countdown has now officially begun as we are just one day away from the Nvidia earnings report, which will take place on Wednesday after the market closes. And trust me when I tell you, this is going to be a big one. Because in a market that is already being shaken by geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict, the China tariffs, the Canada tariffs, the Japan unwinding, bond yields flying, and midterms looming, which is generally a bit of a weird time here in the market, we're going to see the stock market looking for its largest player to provide some hope, provide some optimism. And it's in my belief that whatever it is that Nvidia says tomorrow on Wednesday is either going to add fuel to this fire of uncertainty, or it will provide a bit of relief in a very very big way. And so, because this is going to be such a massive event and such an important moment for the stock market, in today's video, I'm going to walk you through everything. We're first and foremost going to break down the entire report from earnings to guidance to the investor call so that you know exactly what it is to be looking for and listening for as they go through all of their data. Then we're going to dive into the charts. I'm going to walk you through historically what has happened when Nvidia reports their earnings and what I'm expecting to happen moving forward as a result of this earnings. Because we are actually getting some pretty interesting signs that I think you're going to want to see. And towards the end, what I'll actually do is walk you through my own personal game plan in my portfolio, letting you know what I'm doing in my own in my own positions and my own stocks as a result of this massive event. And my goal is that you leave today's video feeling as prepared as humanly possible for one of the largest events of the year. So, we have a good bit to get into today, and I don't want to keep you too long on a Tuesday, folks. So, let's go ahead and let's begin. So, remember, when it comes to earnings reports, it is always broken down into three pieces. The earnings, the guidance, the investor call. Many people make the mistake of only looking at the earnings headline numbers or hearing about what they say about guidance or just listening to the investor call. And I guess if you only listen to the investor call, you're probably getting all this information anyway. But generally speaking, I find it very important that if you own stock in a company, you look at all these things. Look at their earnings data, break it down, actually dive into the details, listen and look into the guidance. What do they say about the future? And then listen to the investor call. Because each one of these different data sets will provide you with information that is very valuable for the asset that you hold. So, with that in mind, and when it comes to Nvidia's earnings, let's start off with the headline earnings numbers. So, when it comes to the earnings, what Wall Street is expecting is a $92 billion release of revenue, meaning that they're expecting Nvidia to have generated over the last 3 months $92 billion. If this is the case, based on assumed expenses, this would put Nvidia's EPS or earnings per share at roughly $2.08. Now, although this is what Wall Street is expecting, I need to be honest with you. This is not what would make Wall Street happy. You see, over the course of Nvidia's history, if we look at the different earnings reports in which they've released, even if we just look at the last one, Nvidia almost always beats earnings by anywhere from 1 to 5% with an average of 3%. If we look at the previous earnings, they beat revenue by 3%. The one before that, 3%. The one before that, 3.7%. The one before that, 1.5. The one before that, 1.6, 3.2, 5.76. So, on average over the last six, seven reports, they have gone in and beat expectations by roughly 3%. And so, realistically, although Wall Street is expecting 92 billion and $2.08 of EPS, I think it's more likely that the number that would at least somewhat satisfy Wall Street is is 95-ish billion dollars of revenue and $2.14 and higher in earnings per share. One mistake that so many people make is thinking, "Okay, the numbers that Wall Street is expecting are the numbers we want to see." No, no, no, not in the AI trade. In the AI trade, you're always looking for some sort of outsized performance. You always want to see a beat because this is an over-leveraged market right now, especially in the AI sector. Okay? Now, in addition to just the headline numbers, we're also going to want to dive a bit deeper into some of the specifics. And one of the specifics that is going to be very important that's not being talked about enough right now is Vera Rubin. So, as many of you know, Blackwell is today's cash cow. This is the technology in which they are currently deploying, of course, to create their chips. Vera Rubin is the next one. Vera Rubin is the successor platform that's ramping into production right now with its first systems shipping this fall, like like right now, essentially. And management at Nvidia expect that Blackwell and Rubin together will drive a trillion dollars in cumulative revenue through 2027. And so, when you see this earnings data coming in, you're going to want to also look for those line items. What's going on with Vera Rubin? Is that on track? Because any hint of a delay would absolutely spook not only Nvidia investors, the entire AI trade. Now, this also may fall in line with the investor call. You might need You might not see anything about Vera Rubin, realistically, on the actual earnings data, but again, this is something I want to put here because this is a part of their earnings that will be incredibly, incredibly important for the future of Nvidia. Because great, Blackwell is doing great right now, but remember, the world of agentics is going to be a whole different beast. The world of robotics, a whole different beast. And Vera Rubin is going to be a massive component of that new beast that's going to be around the corner. And we need to make sure that they are on track to deliver as expected because that's sort of perfect price action or performance from the company with Vera Rubin is already priced into current price action. Okay? So, it's going to be very important that you look for Vera Rubin. In addition to that, you're also going to want to look at their margins. Because one mistake that people make all the time when they're looking at these earnings are they're looking at revenue. They're looking at EPS, but they're not peeling back that onion a little bit and looking at the one thing that actually matters the most at this scale, and that's their margins. A company like Nvidia, if you see their margins collapse, guess what? The whole company collapses in terms of um financial performance or safety, security. And I would actually go to say that at this point that they're at, already becoming one of the largest companies in the world and now currently the largest company in the world, margins might be the most important metric to look at. And what we can see is that Nvidia guided about 75% gross margin, but that was their guidance before we saw memory and component costs start climbing as much as they were. And Nvidia actually came out and warned their customers that a 15-plus percent price increase on some AI servers next year could be in play. So, if some of those increased prices already have started to impact their services, there's a world in which we see that margin number start slipping a little bit and the market is going to notice that really, really quickly, okay? I don't think that's super likely, but it's one of those wild cards that you always want to watch. And so, not only are you going to want to go in and watch just the basic numbers, right? Revenue at 3% earnings per share at 3%, but you're going to want to see what they say about Vera Rubin. You're going to see want to see what their margins are. Where are they at with gross margins? 75% minimum. Minimum. Ideally, 3% higher. Every time, you're just always looking when it comes to Nvidia, add that extra 3%. That's what's going to make the market higher. And I'm not saying that, you know, puts them um in a safe spot to where the the stock price can't come down, but at least it is in alignment with these kind of unrealistic expectations that the market has. Okay? So, when it comes to earnings, one more time, 92 billion plus 3%, let's call it 95 billion. Earnings per share, $2.14 or higher, roughly. What do they say about Vera Rubin and what are their margins? Are they at 75% or higher? Those are the details you're looking for when it comes to their earnings report. Now, when it comes to their guidance, Wall Street wants to see Nvidia guide Q3 revenue toward or above $100 billion for the first time ever. But, remember, add that 3%. So, Wall Street is currently looking for Nvidia to release somewhere around $103 billion in Q3 revenue. If they do that, that means that Nvidia is still on the same track that they said that they would be and things are going as expected. Now, personally, I think they're going to do this with ease and it wouldn't shock me whatsoever to see them guide 105 to 108. And if that is the case, that would put their year-over-year growth well into 84, 85, 86%. 100 billion puts them around 81% and that's a bare minimum, in my opinion. Remember, they're going to give about a range and you just want to make sure that that midpoint of that range, probably the bottom of that range, clears $100 billion in Q3 guided revenue. Now, one thing to remember, one thing to consider, is that this does exclude China, okay? But, there was that recent release in which they could, in some way, start kind of dealing with China, but not really. But, their previous guidance did exclude China. So, there could be a bit of a There could be a bit of a wild card in play here, but time will tell. We'll We'll focus on that when the time comes, okay? Now, there are three scenarios of how this plays out. Let me make this very clear, okay? There's There's only three ways that this plays out. Scenario number one is that the guidance comes in above $100 billion. That's great. It means that we are seeing revenue re-accelerating, the AI boom is still clearly intact, and the stock could likely see a pop over the mid-term. Maybe not immediately because it doesn't usually see a pop over the mid-term or over the short-term, but I could see some sort of pop over the mid-term. The second scenario is that the guide lands right at $100 billion. If we see the guide coming at $100 billion, it almost doesn't matter what their previous quarter revenue was, I think that we are going to see Nvidia's price slip. It's either going to have a muted move or we're going to see a sell-the-news move because the market is already pricing in the idea that they're going to guide $100 billion, right? So, coming in at expectations is just not good enough in this market, and it wouldn't shock me to see the price falling, okay? Now, let's quickly discuss what happens if they guide under $100 billion, okay? If that bottom of that range or even the top of that range is under $100 billion. Um that would be really, really, really bad. I'm just going to be 100% transparent with you. It's going to be really bad. Does it mean that the whole entire stock market is going to crash forever? Probably not because this market often times just does the opposite of what you would expect it to do, but in general, when it comes to investor sentiment regarding the AI trade, then them coming in with a deceleration of expected revenue would be really, really, really bad. Now, I don't really see a world in which that happens. I would be genuinely shocked if that happens considering the financing that they've been getting from these big institutions and banks, considering the increase in CapEx coming from high hyperscalers, considering their exclusive um you know, provision of services and uh components to major players such as SpaceX, I don't see a world in which their revenue isn't climbing, and I think it's extremely unlikely that that happens, but if for some reason, some reason, we see Nvidia guide under $100 billion, it's going to be bad. If you know, you know. Now, with that in mind, let's move on to the final piece, the final component, which is the investor call. The investor call is actually one of my favorite parts of the earnings report because it provides all the context. It provides all the data, all the information, you know, you can read through the earnings report, you can read through the guidance and gather some information, but there's something different about hearing them talk. There's something different about hearing them talk. Hearing them get questions about pieces of the report that they released and having to answer those questions on the spot that can really give you some information about how confident they feel or how, you know, um what their expectations are from a more raw perspective, not like this script written perspective, right? And so, on the investor call, we're going to want to listen very closely for many hot topics, right? Hyperscalers, China, SpaceX, financing, all these sorts of things. If I'm going to kind of overview that, when it comes to hyperscalers, we want to hear them talk about what sort of impact that big tech spending or is expected to have on their revenue. We already know that there is roughly $720 billion in AI spending allocated this year from the hyperscalers, which is a 77% increase year over year. What do they say and how are they feeling? Do they expect that number to continue to climb? In addition to that, does Jensen say anything about that $500 billion financing deal that's coming from Wall Street, some of these major institutions like Blackrone and Blackrone? Did I say Blackrone? Blackrock, Blackstone, we know Goldman Sachs is in on that as well, right? Do they say anything about this? Maybe that jumps to 1 trillion at some point, maybe 2 trillion, we'll see. Not not this earnings report, but maybe eventually, we'll pay attention. The China situation. Remember, China's left out of guidance completely, but with limited H200 approval starting, any positive commentary here could be pure upside. There is no upside being factored into their current guidance and expectations from China. So, any potential upside or any sort of positive commentary could actually add something that the market hasn't priced in yet. That could give you a nice little pop. That could be good. And finally, are there any new customers, right? You We all heard it. SpaceX came out and said that they were going to be basically dropping AMD and focusing specifically on Nvidia's um products because they're the best in the world. Do they mention that any new customers are coming around? That could be pure upside play, right? So, we want to listen for these sorts of things. We want to listen for all of those different components and all of those different pieces because as you start to unpeel this onion, you recognize that it's very, very deep and each layer matters to build the big picture that AI is still here and that it's strong and that it's accelerating, that it's growing and it will do what they say it will do. So, as you can see here again, this one is deep and there is a lot riding on this report. There's a lot of moving pieces. There's numbers. There's the guidance. There's the investor call. It's it's going to be a good bit and unfortunately, I do have a bit of bad news for you guys. I'm actually not going to be here. I'm not going to be live for this one. I'm going to be out of town. I have a trip for my wife with for her birthday, so I'm not going to be here for this call. I kind of mistimed this trip and when I planned it, but it is what it is, right? Got to got to do what you got to do. All good. All good. So, because I'm going to be gone, what I did is I made a quick overview sheet for you. What I want you to do is screenshot this. Hold on. Let me move myself. There we go. I want you to give this a bit of a screenshot. What this does is it breaks down the revenue you're looking for. Remember, always a little bit higher, 3% higher. Revenue, earnings per share, gross margin. For the guidance, $100 billion plus. Do we get above, at, or below? And then here are some of the key elements to watch. There's Vera Rubin, there's margins, there's China, hyperscalers, SpaceX, and that $500 billion deal. These are some of the key elements that you're going to want to pay attention to. And so, although I'm not going to be able to be live for you, you can still use this little card and as you're diving through those earnings and stuff or listening to other streams, you can pull some of this information from it, okay? So, that's what you're going to be on the lookout for. And if you do have a good grip on all of these things, I think you'll do a really good job at being able to dissect this earnings report and see if it's good or not. And if you're not certain, guys, go to YouTube, type in Amit Investing. He's got to be live, I'm sure. Go see whatever he says. He's like one of the goats. And then I'm also going to make a video as soon as humanly possible when I get like 30 minutes after this report drops to break down what happened for you, to feed you the information you need. So, I'll be there nonetheless, but I'll at least try to use this bad boy if you're able to, okay? So, that's what we're looking at from a fundamental perspective. Now, let's jump into the technical side of things. Let's jump to the charts because the charts are actually painting a very interesting picture. And I will say we're getting some decent signs. We're getting some decent signs and signals from the chart, and it doesn't feel like it right now, okay? So, let me start off with the signals and signs that we're getting right now that I think are pretty decent. And then I'll You'll be able to kind of see when I jump through history why they're decent. So, heading into this earnings report, Nvidia's price has been pulling back pretty substantially. As you can see here, Nvidia saw a pullback from $228. They're currently around $208 at the time of recording, which is about an 8.6% pullback, okay? Now, you may look at that and go, "Well, that's bad, right? I mean, people must not be very confident in Nvidia going into this earnings, and so we're seeing its price pulling back even through some of these key zones. That's not a good thing." But the reality is that it's actually a bit of the opposite. History has shown that in the moments in which Nvidia's price is already pulling back and it's not overextended to the top side going into earnings, it actually has a much more muted response and usually does find itself working itself back upwards much sooner than later. For example, if we go look at what happened in these two earnings reports right here, the one from November of last year and then the one from February of this year, you can see exactly what I mean. As we went into the earnings report on November 18th of 2025, Nvidia's price was already sliding a bit, right? And so after that earnings report released, although Nvidia did beat earnings, we did see its price start coming down. But realistically, from the time that that day closed all the way to the bottom of this move, we saw Nvidia fall about 5.6% before going sideways for the next few months. Whereas, the next time that the earnings report happened and we saw Nvidia's price pumping into the earnings report, slightly climbing higher, what we can see is that from that close to the bottom of the post earnings dump, we saw Nvidia fall about 15.16%, which was roughly a three times worse correction here than we saw right here. And I think one of the key kind of indications that this one wasn't going to be as bad as this one or that this one could be worse than this one was because we saw a pullback heading into earnings here, which we didn't see here. And so, in a moment in which we see a pullback already starting and we're not already super overextended to the top side, I think it's more than reasonable to assume that as long as everything goes right and Nvidia reports earnings and beats on guidance and has an optimistic call like I think they're going to, I think there is still very, very clearly a world in which Nvidia can pull back, but I don't think it's going to be nearly as bad as people are expecting. I see a lot of people calling for Nvidia's price to pull back, you know, 16 to 20% towards 160 to 170 bucks. I don't personally see that happening, at least not in the month of August, and not through the rest of this month. I think that would be a slow, steady sort of thing like this. I just don't really imagine we're going to see a big capitulation unless they miss earnings or under report on guidance. Then that is much, much, much more likely a scenario, right? If they do what they're normally going to do, which is beat earnings, raise guidance, I do think that even though a pullback is what normally happens, maybe you see Nvidia coming back down somewhere around, you know, 4, 5, 6%, somewhere back towards the bottom side of this massive ascending structure that it's been in. That seems to be a more likely response to me. Or hey, maybe there's a world in which Nvidia shocks everyone and starts to reverse and it starts to try to climb back to the top side. I mean, we've seen it before, or you know, there have been some moments where it's happened. We saw Nvidia back in May of 2025 have a bit of a pullback before earnings, start rallying into it and getting a pump afterwards. And we actually did see a time back here, a couple of times actually, back in 2024, where it did pump after its earnings. We saw a pump after this earnings, we saw a pullback going into earnings, and then a pump after earnings. We saw a little tiny pump after earnings there, and a pump after earnings there. I do think we are in a completely different environment right now than we were in 2023 and 2024. And as a result, you can see that earnings does typically have a much more negative impact on the price, which makes it much more likely that it does pull back here because it is being priced for perfection already. But again, nonetheless, maybe there is a world in which since we're already seeing a bit of a pullback, potentially we see Nvidia holding up well. But one way or another, look, I'm not going to try to guess. I'm not going to try to speculate as to what's going to happen cuz I don't know, and no one knows. But what I do personally believe is that since we're getting a pullback going into earnings, Nvidia is going to have a better response than many people are expecting, and I think it's going to be a lot more muted or positive than people are expecting, which is a good thing. And so, my current game plan going into this earnings report is to actually go in and buy the dip. If we see Nvidia's price pulling back towards the bottom side of the structure, or possibly even falling below it to around 190 bucks, I am going to start buying um buying the dip here. I think that pullback is going to bring down the entire S&P 500. I'll go into my S&P 500 position and start buying the dip on that. I will also go in and start buying the dip on my hyperscalers if they start pulling back as a result of it as well, going in and buying things like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. And what I will do, potentially for the first time in a very long time, is accumulate a bit of Nvidia in my retirement account. You guys know that I was buying Nvidia in my retirement account for a brief period, for about 6 months back in 2023, and I haven't really done much purchasing since then. But when I'm looking at Nvidia right now, and I'm seeing how its price is performing, and I'm looking at Look, let me let me pull this up really, really quickly for you guys. And I'm looking at Nvidia, you know, on an NTM of 18.74 PE, or a 2027 PE of $23.10, or a current PE of 31, knowing that the current average PE ratio in the S&P 500 is around like 29 or so right now, it looks kind of appealing. Like the next 12 months, it looks kind of appealing and it makes me go, "You know what? Yeah, I might be willing to buy a bit of Nvidia if we do see a pullback cuz I don't think that pullback will be as bad as people are expecting. So, if we do see a dip from Nvidia, if we do see a dip from the market, if we do see a dip from the hyperscalers as a result of this earnings report, I'm going to go in and I'm going to do a little bit of buying in all of my portfolios. And that is a part of why I do have my cash ready because I would like to capitalize on that opportunity. And so, nonetheless, that's kind of my thoughts and that's my game plan. Remember, I'm just guessing, guys, and no one really knows how this is going to play out. You see so many people on there who are like running all of these mathematical equations and saying that this is for sure going to be a pullback from Nvidia. Listen, at the end of the day, anything can happen. You never know what Nvidia is going to say. And re- remember, the market doesn't respond to facts, it responds to how it feels about facts. So, you can't really put a quantitative metric, qualitative or quantitative, but mostly, you can't put a quantitative metric on emotions, realistically. And you don't know how people are going to respond. You don't know if people are going to be excited about something that they say, or going to be upset about something that they say. Google announced that they were going to be increasing their capex and they dumped. Amazon announced that they were going to be increasing their capex and they pumped. It's all a game of just what happens happens, right? So, I'm not going to try to sit here and try to convince you what is or isn't going to happen. All I'm saying is I think that Nvidia is going to perform a bit better than people are expecting. So, I'm going in and I'm going to buy the dip as a result of it if that dip comes. And listen, hopefully it doesn't. It'd be really damn cool if Nvidia just doesn't dip and it does rally and it catches the market off guard cuz it will bring a ton of life to the semiconductors. It'll bring some life to Micron, SanDisk, AMD, many of these ones. And they need it right now. As they're coming back down and they're trying to actually reestablish brand new trends up, they need it right now. And I think they will get that sort of strength and momentum if we get an Nvidia pump. So, hopefully we see it happen. But, I'll update you as it of course all does play out and I'll try my best to cover it from start to finish. But, that's everything that you guys are going to be looking for, okay? From start to finish really quickly, in terms of the earnings, $92 billion in revenue, $2.08 EPS at 3%. We're looking at let's call it 95 billion, let's call it $2.14 of EPS or higher. Is Vera Rubin on track and are their margins sustaining at 75% or higher? When it comes to guidance, we're looking for a 103 to 100 billion dollars in my opinion. If it comes in at over 100 billion, let's call it 103, I think the market will be very happy about that. At 100 billion, the market's going to go and you'll probably see a bit of a pullback. Anything under 100 billion, which is very unlikely, would be real bad, okay? It's going to be bad for the Nvidia price and for the market as a whole. So, that's what you're looking for. Don't forget to go ahead and grab a little screenshot of this bad boy right here, this little scorecard that you can use because I am unfortunately going to be out of town, but going to be celebrating my life and that's going to be a good time. I'm actually really looking forward to it. So, I hope this video was helpful. If I missed anything, please do let me know down in the comments below. As you guys know, I am bringing in a whole bunch of information and data, so sometimes I miss stuff. So, if I missed anything, please do put it in the comments down below. I'll give it a little pin to make sure that everyone is prepared for it. I still do have a bit of content that is planned for you guys over the next few days even while I'm out of town. I'll be recording from the hotel. So, stay tuned for that. Don't forget to turn on your notifications. And hey, if you do want to see a little bit more behind the scenes of my life, I got an Instagram down in the description. Go follow me on Instagram. But, with that, I think that's everything I had for you guys today. So, I will see you all in the next one. Peace out everybody.