you might want to be a buyer over the next couple months
Contexto
Now, if you don't own Dicks, you dodge a bull today. But based on the last time the stock fell apart, you might want to be a buyer over the next couple months
The only one I wanted to say is that you is a winner.
Contexto
No, unless unless it's URI. This business is too hard. I've already screwed up on a couple of rental companies. I'm not going to recommend another rental company. The only one I wanted to say is that you is a winner.
You're going to take half of it out. Half. And then you're going to let the rest run.
Contexto
Listen to me. Milwaukey's famous. That's it. Listen to me, slits, man. You're going to take half of it out. Half. And then you're going to let the rest run.
Contexto
I do not get my kicks from super micro. All right. Absolutely not. And I got I don't love super micro in the spring, summer, winter, or fall because as far as I'm concerned, it's got accounting problems.
Contexto
I happen to like Netflix. I talked about that this morning, very morning. And I think Reddit is such a buy at 166, it's ridiculous.
Transcrição Completa
My mission is simple, to make you money.
I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull
market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money.
Welcome to Cra America. I'll be with my friends. I'm just trying to make a
little bit of money here. My job is not just to entertain, but it's also to
teach. Call me 1800 743 CNBC. Tweet me at your quiver. I wish Nvidia weren't so darn important
to this market. That way, the company could just do a great job when reports
tomorrow night and not be subject to insane inane absurd levels of scrutiny.
In that case, tomorrow could be another ordinary day like today. Dow gain 160
points as it be advanced.32%. NASDAQ climbed 66%. But tomorrow won't be
ordinary because Nvidia's truly become anything but ordinary. It's all
important and it is the ultimate battleground. Why are the stakes so high? Simple.
Never before has there been a company with so many tentacles in so many
segments of the economy. Nvidia so big that many money managers actually spent
today positioning for tomorrow night's call. I don't like having to give you
what when I was a sports writer amounts to a pre, that's a slang name for a
story that sets the stage for the big game, usually the night before. But you
need one. You deserve one. Especially uh longtime watchers, especially you club
members who most likely own some Nvidia because for years my mantra has been own
it, don't trade it. And I haven't changed my tune at all. If you believe,
as many of us do, that AI represents a new industrial revolution. Then Nvidia is the loom, the steam
engine, and the computer all baldled up into one. We often hear that other
companies have something better or that Nvidia makes Lamborghinis when we need a
Ford F-150. I say if you're going to be part of the AI revolution, you got to go
with the best. Elon Musk has at times wish Nvidia wasn't so expensive, but
he's going all in on their chips with SpaceX and he even wants to put them in
orbit. I'm getting it right with Musk. Of course, arch rival AMD's efforts
can't be dismissed. Today, OpenAI announced its first custom interference
chip named Jalapeno that it says serves the purposes better than Nvidia's. They
want to wean themselves off Nvidia's pricey hardware. Be my guest. Maybe they
can. Maybe their big hat no cattle. Google and Amazon have been have been
making competing chips of their own. But they've also been doing plenty of
business with Nvidia and speak incredibly highly of the product. Think
of it this way though. If you leave the comfortable world of Nvidia, you leave
the platform that most engineers want to write on, most young companies want to
write on. Their chips aren't expensive. The chips, look, they're expensive.
Okay? They're expensive for a reason. And it's no coincidence that the
companies I've mentioned are a huge part of the Nvidia story. Hence why it
dominates all option trading night after night after night. It's just too big not
to. All that said, we can't discuss Nvidia's dominance without addressing
the critics. Because if the bears are right, the stock will tumble regardless
of what reports are. Let me lay them out so you're ready. First and foremost,
Nvidia's made a huge number of multi-billion dollar investments in AI
from Anthropic to OpenAI to Marbell Tech and Coherent and so many others. really
too too numerous to mention. Many of these investments have already yielded
large profits at least on paper, but Nvidia sells almost nothing that's
invested in. They're letting the let's say the bets ride. I think these
investments allow the companies involved to soar. Nvidia gives them a chance to
experiment, manufacture the wares better. Thanks to these moves, Nvidia is
it's the sun in what seems like an endless AI solar system. I think that's
tremendous. Companies always want to dominate. Why shouldn't Nvidia use it
profits to help ensure that it remains on top? It's not like they're doing
anything anti-competitive. Nvidia invested 30 billion in OpenAI and OpenAI
is downright gleeful about inventing this new chip jalapeno that can compete
with Nvidas. Word to the wise for Open AI. I grow jalapenos. Don't touch them
and put your hands to your eyes. It's a nightmare.
Now, these investments come in many forms. convertible preferred stock like
Marbell, straight out common like coherent, cash and warrants like
Corning, backs stops and guarantees for many others. To me, Nvidia's creative in
picking these deals and creative in designing them, but not all agree. The
critics say these are circular deals where Nvidia gives someone money and
then they spend that money on Nvidia product. I call them lazy Susan deals
for that weird spin thing that was on my mom's dining room table. Just this
morning, for example, the Wall Street Journal painstakingly laid out the case
against Nvidia. Not that we haven't heard it before, suggesting that these
investments pump up their sales numbers could lead to obligations that the
company can't meet if the AI edifice comes crashing down. It's very dire.
They mentioned Lucid once upon a time a huge company telco that did tons of
circular deals during the docom era. Lucen was accused of massive accounting
for it. Then the journal said to be sure Nvidia isn't Lucid. To which I say, wait
a second, if it isn't Lucid, why bring it up? Comparisons, as my mom has said,
are odious. Another Nvidia permutation, the data center. You peer inside a data
center, you see plenty of the video. But what if a data center growth gets
restricted by politicians? Who's seen the polling and don't want to antagonize
your voters. The mob has spoken and the mob hates the data centers.
To me, there shouldn't be a mob. We need people talking to each other about what
each community needs. Conversations between prospective data center builders
and towns people that will end the controversy. But the controversy keeps
building. And when it does, it drives the stock of Nvidia down. That had been
the trajectory for eight days. Today's small gain did little to bring the stock
back to where it was. It seems there really isn't any end of tech that Nvidia
doesn't touch. Last week we were in Boise, Idaho, taking uh we were talking
with Sanjay Brochi. He's the CEO of Micron memory chip maker. They're trying
to build a fab to produce DRAMs which are in very short supply. You got
workers toiling long hours six days a week from the top of the structure.
Looks like they're just ants running all over the place. Thousands of them. This
isn't one of these construction sites where a couple people are standing
around smoking and someone else is trying to get a forklift to work. This
is brrawn might and incredibly important Nvidia as a shortage of high bandwidth
memory. That's the stuff that makes costing them sales. Finally, it's
geopolitical. Nvidia was hoping to be able to sell chips into the massive
Chinese market which would probably for perhaps forestall China's efforts to
develop its own high-end GPUs. Maybe it would, maybe it would. The US government
said no huge sales loss. Now video wants to develop the best open weight interf
uh inference ships in part to keep the Chinese from beating us to you might say
hey to who to what I mean we don't what does it mean to be beaten I don't know
we don't want to be beaten so tomorrow night we'll see if Nvidia can withstand
the close scrutiny the withering interstitial fire
sharpen and order amount in advance that takes the stock to 235 that's the
alltime high set may of the year or perhaps it'll just slink back into some
dark place where no one wants to go Or maybe, just maybe, it's a nothing burger
with a positive spin. Possible? No, I don't think so. Here's the bottom line.
There's no such thing as a nothing burger about the largest stock in the
world. It's always going to be bold, challenging, inventive, and dazzling,
befitting the greatest business businessman of our time. Yes, business
person. I'm sorry, Jensen W. Let's go to Charles in Maryland. Charles,
>> how you doing, Jim? >> I am good, Charles. How are you?
Yeah, my question is about Under Armour. I understand that Kevin Fant's planning
on coming back or come back. See how that's going to do for the company or
the stock. >> Yeah, you know, Under Armour is such a
tough thing and I'm a big fan of Kevin Plank, but frankly, they're not ready.
Uh not with Nike struggling, not with on struggling, not with Hogus struggling. I
don't see how Under Armourers are struggling. So, I'm going to say not
yet. Satan. Let's go to Will in >> Will in Colorado. Will
>> Hey, Will. >> Will's breaking up a tad.
>> Oh, okay. I was saying >> I'm I'm down with that one. But, um,
>> what what do you think about BJ's Wholesale, Jim? They uh,
>> you know, look, BJ's real good. I'm a I'm a Costco guy. I mean, sometimes what
you have to do is you have to say, "Okay, listen. I am a certain person. I
mean, I'm a dollar store. Dollar Tree. I like dollar stores, okay? But I really
only like Dollar Tree. I don't like Dollar General when it comes to uh
clubs. I like Costco. I don't like BJ's. It's just a It's, you know, it's a
preference. It's a preference. And I prefer Dollar Tree. I prefer Costco. All
right. Look, there's no such thing as a nothing burger when it comes to Nvidia.
And the greatest business person of all time, Jensen W. Uh tomorrow we're going
to see how much Wall Street really cares about this really amazingly important
stock on man tonight. Dick Sporting Goods just saw its worst one day decline ever
after a dismal quarter. So what's next for the retailer? Hey, don't miss my
analysis and I'm an open-minded fella. Then oil prices dipped today on news
about the Middle East, but today they have further to fall. I'm going off the
charts to find out. And Intuit is on the move after reporting earnings. But what
direction? I'll talk to the CEO. Stick with Kramer. Don't miss a second of MadMoney. Follow
Jim Kramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer #madmentions.
Send Jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1800743CNBC. Miss something? Head to
madmoney.cnbc.com. All right. What the heck is going on
with the stock of the export sporting goods? I mean, this retailer reported
this set of numbers this morning. Saw the stock punch $55, 31% for its worst
day ever. Can you imagine if you owned it? I know. And consolidation. I want to
console the people who did because it's a pretty good company. It used to be a
solid growth stock, but it spent the last couple years doing nothing of note.
Thanks to the flag and sportsware market and then my instrument's controversial
acquisition of food lock foot locker remember that one closed almost a year
ago Foot Locker was a dog still the stock was trading water until late June
when it started falling from $244 all the way down $179 as of last close kind
of looked attractive to me but during that decline I kept wondering what the
heck is going wrong here the previous quarter was pretty solid there didn't
seem to be any company specific news dragging went down JB realized those
sellers were pressure and now we need to figure out if tick is a broken stock or
a broken company. I want to start with the numbers which were suboptimal from
top to bottom. Now, Dicks put up 2.1% same store sales growth. Wall Street was
looking for 4%. That's disappointing. Revenue came in a little late. Gross
margin and operating margin were both down dramatically. The earnings per
share came in at $353, down nearly 20% year-over-year and representing a 23
cent miss versus expectations. That's nasty. When the Cord Dicks uh sporting
goods brand isn't doing great, the real pain coming from the Foot Locker
acquisition. Foot Locker same sales were down 3.6% and expecting a.9% increase.
Meanwhile, Dick Sporting Goods itself. It was in line. We saw the same thing
with the margins. Foot Locker is like an open wound. It's a breathtaking
disappointment. Still though, it's not really enough to
justify the catastrophic decline. What really did it was the guidance. While
Imagine reiterated their outlook for same source sales at the Dicks brand,
that's legacy dicks. They slashed their outlook for Foot Locker. They're now
talking negative -2% to flat instead of uh up 1.5 to three as they previously
said. They also slash their fullear sales forecast. Again, all Foot Locker.
Now, Dick says it should earn 11 to 12 per share this year, uh down from 1350
to $14. And that is a major guidance cut. So, now we got to say like what
what really went wrong here? On the conference call, chairman Ed Stack, who
I've known for years, got right to the point, explaining that consumer
preferences shifted during the quarter, and inventory started to build up,
particularly in retro sneakers and certain apparel brands. That in turn led
to aggressive promotional environment. Promotional means they had to slash
prices to get rid of the inventory, and that's exactly what they had to do. They
wanted to defend their market share. These issues were much worse for Foot
Locker than they were for the Court Dick Sporting Goods banner, which had more
strong categories to offset the weakness in athletic footwear and apparel. Now,
Foot Locker is also more dependent on sneaker launches, and there were very
few big launches in the quarter, most of which was disappointing. Worse, it
turned out that Foot Locker is doing particularly badly in Europe and Middle
East and Asia. EMIA as we like to call it. Looking forward, STAX said the
company's taking action to shift its mix toward in demand brands. And they expect
a quote here, the launch calendar to be more favorable in the back half of the
year. Quote, end quote. Still, he said he expects quote the broader promotional
environment to remain challenging end quote. That's awful. And that's through
the end of the year, which is why Dicks plans to continue defending its market
share with price cuts, hence the savage cuts to their earnings forecast. So,
what should we think about all this? Is it a disaster unmititigated? Well, when
I saw these results from Dix's this morning, my first thought was that's a
it's a brutal time for athletic footwear and apparel. We know Nike's been
struggling, and Dix confirmed that when they talked about weakness in sneakers
with legacy silhouettes. That's code for Nike. But we've also seen disappointing
results from challenger brands like on which just had a weak quarter of its own
earlier this month. That was great growth stocks at one time. Decker's hoca
talk about growth stocks. Brand is still doing okay but it growth has slowed
significantly uh from 20% a year ago to 8% in the most recent quarter. So while
this quarter was very bad they're not wrong that this is an industrywide
problem. That said a lot of this is self-inflicted because nobody put a gun
in their head and force them to buy foot locker the company that was not a good
business when it was bought. It's trying to see management so taken by surprise
here. I think that's what really did it. Just one quarter ago, they'd raised
their fullear forecast for Foot Locker, same sort of sales. Man, could you could
you ever be that wrong? They had to cut cut it by 300 basis points. Clearly,
they're having trouble turning this business around. It shouldn't come as a
surprise to anyone who watched the performance of Foot Locker stock before
the takeover bid. We owned it for the char trust and we got out. We took a big
loss. That said, I'm not so sure we should give up on thick sporting goods.
Not after today's decline. The stock's now trading at less than 11 times the
midpoint of management's lower earnings guidance, though it only matters if they
can hit the targets. Dicks looked cheap last night, too. But it turned out to be
a value trap, as the estimates were just classically too high. On the other hand,
DKS pays a nice dividend, which now yields about 4%. For what it's worth,
we've seen this movie before. DIX had a huge single day meltdown almost exactly
three years ago when the stock fell 24% also in response to a bad quarter. At
the same time, the c the stock took a couple of months to bottom, but after it
found its footing in October of 2023, it's like a coiled sprint. Dicks ran
from 100 250 over the course of the next 15 months. In the end, as much as I
don't like the Foot Locker deal, I believe in Dick Sporting Goods. This
company's really the last man standing in the sporting goods space. While the
next quarter or two seem like they'll be tough, the the expectations now been
totally reset and thus they should be beatable. Plus, the industry wide
inventory glut that ruined this quarter. It's likely to be clear by the time next
year's rolls around, but Nike's inventory cleanup took a very long time.
Let me give you the bottom line because you're probably tempted to buy it. Dick
Sporting Goods turned in a terrible quarter that led the stock to its worst
one day decline ever. Given the scale of the miss and the guidance cut, I don't
blame anyone for getting out of dodge. Still, I don't want to give up on Dick
Sporting Goods at these levels. In the long run, call me a believer because
this is the only remaining sporting goods retailer with genuine scale in
this country. Even if it's also joined at the hip with struggling foot locker.
I mean, they could always close it. It just might take a few months before the
sporting goods footwear and apparel space clears that excess inventory and
starts bouncing back. Usually can't be done in a single quarter, though. Now,
if you don't own Dicks, you dodge a bull today. But based on the last time the
stock fell apart, you might want to be a buyer over the next couple months
because this company's had a history of coming back from the dead. Management
will pivot. dicks will be addressed. Uh they they will they will take a hard
look at Foot Locker. Uh it's us like this. There tends to be still one more
uh day when analysts cut their uh ratings. That should be tomorrow. I
expect that uh by Monday we can see a bottom as all the big accounts would
have fled. After that you just have to hold it until the story comes together
which I expect will happen in January after tax loss selling and one more weak
quarter. They have money back. Coming up, while the Iran war has sent
oil soaring, it might be hitting its ceiling. Kramer's checking the charts to
see next. All right, posit. How is it that despite
all the conflict with Iranians, the price of oil still floating in the 80s?
Remember when they shut the the the strainer moves down first? Most of Wall
Street assumed we'd have tripledigit oil prices for as far as the I can see.
Well, $82 a barrel isn't exactly cheap. It's a lot lower than you'd expect. All
the supply from the Persian Gulf was blocked off, right? So, what's going on
here? To answer that question, we're going off the charts with a resident
commodities expert Carly Garner. Now, she's a brilliant technician. She's
senior commodity strategist, broker to Carly Trading, as well as being the
author of the Darly Perspective newsletter.
She points out that there's a lot of subpar data circulating in the commodity
markets, particularly when we're talking about outside of the US. Why? Because
much of this data is collected or reported by parties with skin in the
game. And Garner thinks we're seeing this in the Persian Gulf. People are
massaging the data. Of course, the situation of straight moves makes the
whole process more murky. Even if you're standing on the shore of the straight,
you probably wouldn't know how much oil's coming through. According to US
energy officials, it's 8 to N million barrels per day. In Gartner's view, that
figure is probably too optimistic. But then again, the visible ships crossing
the street with trackers represent a pretty small percentage of the total.
Keep in mind, we're talking a war zone here. When most ships try to cross the
straight, they go dark and they turn their trackers because they don't want
to get blown up. Some estimates suggest that 80% of traffic through the straight
is dark. So far more oil is leaking through the straight than the initial
data suggests. To garner, this is obvious because if the official ship
count were accurate, the price of crude would be much, much higher than it is
right now. Remember, not too long ago, most of Wall Street figured that Iran's
shutdown of the straight would force prices into the triple digits. Come on,
you kept reading that, right? Steadily pushed them closer to 200. I read that
endlessly. That hasn't happened in part because we're getting extra oil from
these ships that go door. At the same time, Gerard points out that markets get
tired of war headlines. When Russia invaded uh Ukraine in 2022, Russia got
stopped with tons of sanctions. And because they're a big source of oil and
gas, the prices skyrocket. Didn't even take a year for them to pull back,
though, even as the war and the sanctions, well, they continue. More
recently, Ukraine has attacked Russia oil infrastructure at least 30 times the
last month. And Russia's crude production is the lowest in six years.
Yet, West Texas intermediate crude is still consistently making lower highs.
Wall Street is brushing it off at this point. That's what it's saying. How does
that apply to Iran? Okay, we know that this war continues to linger even though
our military seems to be running low on missiles. I I don't know how that came
out. I mean, it doesn't make sense that came out, but anyway, President Trump
has stepped up the sanctions Iran. Remember, he's going for a outcast
there. And yesterday, we learned he'll apply secondary sanctions to anyone who
does business with the Iranians. So far, our government seems to have no
intention of deescalating this war. YEAH. WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AFTER the
announcement of increased sanctions? Price of oil dropped two bucks. Today I
fell another couple of bucks. A few months ago, this might have caused a
10-point spike in crude. Now, nobody cares. Big yawn.
With all these headlines about the war, Garner points out that we keep
forgetting about OPEC. There was this time when OPEC cartel controlled oil
prices. Those days are long over. There's slowly been bleeding additional
supply to the market with very little fanfare. From a fundamental perspective,
American recounts have been on uptrend for over a year and a half despite some
stabilization recent weeks. Plus, the oil market has been in persistent
backwardation, meaning oil prices get cheaper the further you go into the
future. Given that speculators mostly play with the front end of the futures
curve, while institutions and hedgers go further out, backwardation, well, what
does it mean? It usually means the most sophisticated operators are betting on
lower prices. At the same time, Garner points out that both the OPEC and the
Energy Information Administration, EIA, are predicting an annual decline in oil
demand decline for the first time since 2020. On top of that, the US dollar
collapsed last week on those Treasury buyback announcements, which matters
here because most oils are still priced in greenbacks. A weaker dollar typically
means higher oil. So, let's do some charting here. Let's look at the chart,
a daily chart of the dollar index, okay, which measures the dollar against a
basket of foreign currencies. Garter notes that even with this recent
breakdown, the dollar is maintaining its 200 day moving average. So, there's
still a chance of a rebound. When Besson announces longdated Treasury buybacks,
the dollar index got slammed as it should be, but it seems to have found
its uh its footing at this point, and the primary trend line remains intact.
In the end, Garn doesn't expect a wipe out here, which means it probably won't
do much to artificially boost the price of crude. Remember the crude crude is
priced in greenbacks. All right. How about the daily chart of what we care
the most? Oil futures. Down at the bottom, you can see this is the RSI or
relative strength index. All right. An important momentum indicator. It's been
making lower highs, which is also what we've seen from oil
itself. Garner suspects the pattern is going to continue. Even if the price of
crude keeps bouncing, she's betting it will be contained between 88 and 91.
There's the the containment. And if it breaks down, she sees major floor
support at 72 and then uh it's a 200 day moving average. But the general
direction is bearish because more oil is sneaking through the straight of her
moves than we think. This thing could have much lower prices. Now, when you
look at the weekly chart of the oil futures, you can see that the bull
wounded. Garter says the current pattern looks very similar to what happened in
2022. Oh boy. um after the market got used to Russia's
invasion of Ukraine. Once the price of oil declined below the black pivot line,
it acted as a ceiling. If that pattern continues, hold garnly's oil rallies
will be reversed in the low 90s and it wouldn't shocker. Are you ready ski
daddy for this to come down ultimate to the 60s or even the 40s? Oh my god, that
would be ugly. Remember, everybody's got a lower got a lot riding on lower oil,
especially the bond market. Now, I want you to check out this chart of the oil
futures in black versus the third year. This is definitive proof, okay? The, you
know, this is in other words, so you're looking at bonds versus oil. Every time
oil spikes, remember that's this, the dark, okay? Every time it spikes, what
happens? Treasury prices come down. That pushes up long-term interest rates. And
when long rates sore, the stock market takes a beating. That right here, this
is the locust of what happens with oil. That's why I say the opposite occur. If
oil goes to the 40s, you're going to see a big big spike uh in bond prices and
lower interest rates. Here's the bottom line. If Carly Garner's right, the price
of crude is likely to come down. Then we'll be up against a much more positive
backdrop. If oil really does fall in the 40s, I say look out above because the
market will be headed much higher. As I don't know another soul in the world
who's thinking oil could go so low. I I want to take some questions.
Just kind of do. Let's go to Robert in New York. Robert,
>> Jim, I'm so happy to be on the show tonight and I've got to tell you, I have
got the greatest story for you. We got to make this quick because we got to
make the listeners money. But I was out for lunch today and I'm meeting there
with my friend Nome. He's a great guy from Israel. And we're sit Oh, great
guy. So, we're having lunch and he's telling me he bought this beautiful
house in Jupiter, but he said, "I put this beautiful generator in and this
thing works like a charm." He said it was so reasonable. And here's the deal,
Jim. This company is based about it's about $200 a share with a market cap of
12.15 billion. And they signed some really big deals to supply backup power
to hyperscale data centers for nearly 700 million in 2027. Now they announced
that they will invest 250 million through the end of 2027 to upgrade
factories and expand production of massive commercial generators tailored
for hypers scale data centers. Now Jim, you made me back and let's go
to the vide tape. April 2025 yours truly told me this was an excellent company
and I bought it at $111 $113 a share. It ran to $296
a share. I am nibbling away at this baby because the CEO Jack Feld the name of
the company is Gener. >> Generrack. YEAH. GNOME AND JUPITER GAVE
YOU THAT ONE. GNOME and Jupiter probably got a good deal. I mean I know him is
like Jupiter. First you said Jupiter. I was thinking like Venus and Mars. I said
we put a man on Jupiter. He must have Elon Musk. Um okay. So Generrack is been
down lately because people feel we're not going to build the data centers. And
I totally get that. But you know what? I think you're doing the right thing. Trim
to 290. buy a little here. Uh then wait then wait like 25 more points just in
case the data center pure gets even even more heated and uh you know what I think
Gnome he can call into I Jupiter's it's it's not a foreign country the charges
interpreted by Carly Garner suggest that oil prices are on their way down if
that's true we're looking at a much better backdrop for stocks aren't we now
much more mid money including my post earnings exclusive with into it then
these hyperscalers are getting on the bad side of small town America I've got
some advice to help some correct. And you know what? They're going to listen
to it. I'm telling you, they're going to listen to it. They're going to copy me.
And they're never going to give me any credit. And I don't care. And all your
calls rapid fire tonight. Seriously, the lighting around. Stay. Okay. All right. What do you make of the
numbers of Intuit? The software company behind QuickBooks, Mailchimp, Turboax,
Credit Karma. Stock's been a bit of a pain for most of the year because it's
enterprise software and Wall Street assumed that this whole group would be
eaten alive by artificial intelligence. But we've now gone through an entire tax
season with these AI models widely available. So far, we haven't seen many
people switching to clawed to handle their taxes at least. Instead, Intuit's
been incorporating AI into their own products. Now, after the close today,
Inuit report a strong set of numbers with not so hot guidance. So, that's
what we have to look into. So, let's check it in with Sassang Gadars. He's
the chairman CEO of Intuit to figure out what's going on. Mr. Garzi, welcome back
to Mad Money. >> Hey Jim, thank you. Thanks for having
me. >> Okay, so S, I see a bunch of numbers
that are low single digit for a business that used to grow hot uh I would say
faster. I'm not saying much faster. I see a franchise that is unassalable that
you think isn't growing fast enough. and I see you taking action and I'm trying
to figure out whether the sellers realize you're taking action or are they
just saying, you know what, maybe there's just no growth here and we
should move on. >> Yeah. Well, first of all, uh Jim, uh we
are all about serving our customers and all about growth. I mean, there's a
couple of dynamics at play. One is we've really been building out our agentic
platform uh so that for consumers we can help them build credit to building
wealth and for businesses is to really help them from getting leads to cash
flow and in that context we've allocated a lot of our capital to three big areas.
One is assisted tax. Uh second is really money being at the center of everything
that we do for consumers and businesses. And third it's mid-market. That's now
30% of the company growing over 34% which is why we just crossed the 20
billion dollar mark and it's why we guided topline nine to 10% but our EPS
gap and non-GAAP we guided well over 22%. With that as context there's two
areas that I'm not happy with. One is I believe we need to grow faster and take
more market share in DIY tax. And two, I believe we need to take more market
share and grow faster with entrepreneurs that are uh becoming new entrepreneurs
and coming into business. And those are uh that's the area where we've taken
action. So looking ahead, when you think about our guidance,
>> I want to make sure that we are competitively positioned to to drive
long-term growth. And so not only do I want to scale our bets that I just
talked about, >> I also want to increase our market share
and increase our customer growth. And I think we're very well positioned to do
that. And that's really the plans I just laid out on earnings.
>> Okay. But you know, I don't want to play devil's advocate, but Turboax was not
expensive and I went on it today and now it's down to $150. Were people taking I
know it had been 300. Were people coming underneath that? Because that's not a I
I thought that was kind of a bargain. >> Yeah. Well, there if you think about the
tax market, Jim, I would almost uh frame it in two different categories. One is
those that go to somebody else to get their taxes done. Uh which is the
assisted segment. That's an area where we're growing 38%. We have a virtual
expert platform where we can help do your taxes for you virtually from
>> I know and that's the one I'm so excited about but it's just seems to be not big
enough. I heard you 30% but it's just not big enough to overcome what people
say it is too slow growth but it's the future.
>> It is the future and it's several billion dollars growing at nearly uh
40%. At the same time, I want to make sure that we are winning do-it-yourself
customers. And this year, we actually lost some good quality customers. And
this is where we're changing our price to value equation so that we can be
competitive on entry points because, by the way, as we win the tax customer,
those that choose to do it themselves, we're able to deliver benefits across
our platform, money, uh, financial products like credit cards and personal
loans, and to monetize across the platform. So we want to continue to grow
the assisted tax segment but be very competitive on DIY tax because that sets
us up for a durable growth model as we look ahead. So I'm quite excited about
how this position >> understood. Now Mailchimp is now being
uh moved away. It's not a discontinued operation or will it end up being
because the Mailchimp uh growth is non-existent and and I know that was a
$12 billion acquisition but it does seem like I can do on Claude what Mailchimp
does. I'm just saying it because I did it today.
Yeah, in essence what we've done with Mailchimp is we're very focused on
maximizing customer value and shareholder value. So we it is a
separately reported segment and we're very focused on profitability and cash
flow while continuing to deliver uh for our customers because our growth engines
is mid-market. It is assisted tax. It's our money portfolio. So we wanted to
separate where our growth engines are from where we need to maximize
shareholder value. >> Okay. So I want to be able to understand
this. uh if you separate it next quarter, do you not have to report on
it? I mean, I I don't want to get confused.
>> No, no, we absolutely do. >> Okay.
>> No, no, we absolutely do. We just uh the way to think about our segments is we uh
report Turboax separately, we report Credit Karma separately, we report our
global business unit separately, and now we've separated out uh Mailchimp so you
can actually see what the standalone growth rate of that segment is. That's
really the purpose of it. We'll continue to report out on its performance.
>> Okay. Now, uh, Turboax is growing at 2 to 3%. Now, that is a fantastic product.
Why isn't that growing faster? Well, these decisions that we made, Jim,
are exactly to position us to grow faster in the future. So, if you look at
the assisted part of the the segment, it's several billion dollars and growing
at 38%. Right? the do-it-yourself segment. We had a number of customers
that actually upgraded to the assisted segment, but we lost share in
do-it-yourself tax and and we lost share to lowcost providers. And so what I'm
doing this year is repositioning our product, repositioning our pricing and
packaging, so I can actually increase my market share. While that's 2 to 3%
growth this year, it positions us for future growth because I want to make
sure we have a durable business that people
>> and I know I'm dwelling on that if only just because I've used the product. I
think the product's really great and I would have paid more for the product,
but obviously that's not happening and I think it's great that you're addressing
that. Now, on the conference call, a question was asked, what gives in to it
the confidence that you're at the bottom of the J curve rather than evidence of
structural change caused by AI? I thought this was a legitimate question
because the J curve is, you know, at a certain point you you're going to break
out. I don't see the breakout yet. >> Yeah. I mean, I think the the thing to
take away from the decisions that that I conveyed today on earnings is we're
coming at this from a position of strength. Our big bets, which are 30% of
the company, they're growing at 34%. >> At the same time, I also made decisions
to make sure that we can increase our market share and accelerate new customer
growth because we have a real opportunity to ensure that we are
competitively positioned for durable growth in the future. So if you put that
in context of our guidance, 9 to 10% growth for the year, these decisions
position us for faster growth beyond this fiscal year. And that was really
the essence of the decision. >> Well, we got to hold it to you. You
know, you know, we got to hold hold you on this one because we've liked the
company, but obviously this was tough guidance, but I believe you'll come
through and I want to thank you for coming on because you come on in good
times a bit and that's that's a terrific sign. That's Sassan Gdari. He's the
chairman and CEO of Inuit, which is down. You have to read the com. You have
to make decisions yourself if you want to be able to catch it while it's down.
Everybody's back after the break. It is time. It's time for the light bro. And then the light round is over. Are
you ready to keep that tongue light? Let's start with Nick in Texas. Yeah.
>> Triple Booya Jim versus >> Triple Booya. Right back at you,
partner. >> All right.
>> All right. Uh, Grab Holdings, ticker G R A B. Is this a This good?
>> I don't know. It's a holding company. You can't even find anything about this
thing. This is a All right. This is one of those where you should be glad stock
at zero. It's at three and a half. All right. So, you got a good chance of not
losing three and 3/4 here. Let's go to Rich in New Jersey. Rich,
>> hello. >> Hello.
>> Hi. >> How are you?
>> I'm pretty good. How are you? >> My question is my my question is uh is
it safe to buy uh some SpaceX? >> You make it sound like it's Marathon
Man. Um okay. Now, here's the problem. There's a short-term view, which it says
to me, h longer term view says, "Yeah, put it away. Give it to your kids." I'm
not kidding. I mean, people say like, "Oh, he's being he's being facitious."
I'm not. Put it away and give it to your kids. Let's go to Chip in Wisconsin.
Chip. >> Hey, Chip. I mean, hey Jim, Chip from
Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Sorry. Hey, Chip. >> My sock is about service now. I bought
some at 98. I sold a little bit at 129. >> Okay. Okay. Listen to me.
>> Listen to me. Milwaukey's famous. That's it. Listen to me, slits, man. You're
going to take half of it out. Half. And then you're going to let the rest run.
Okay. And you know like you got a good pitcher in that Milwaukee team. He beat
us. That guy is like exceptional. But yeah, I want you to sell half and then
let the rest run. I need to go to Maninder
in Texas. Mininder. >> Hi Jim. This is Maninder from Texas. I
love your show and watch it daily. I for solar FSLR ticker.
>> This stock I'm going to tell I'm going to tell you about First Solar. This is
probably I mean there's always been stocks I used to talk but my ex-wife
Karen. Okay. Hey X. Wow. What a joker. What was what was the matter there? I
don't know. First solar. She used to say stay away from first solar. It's just
too hard. It's too hard. And I love that Karen would she we worked together for
years and she stay away from first solar. This ties too long. First solar.
And I so I my answer is stay away from it. That's is something she told me 30
years ago and it's still right. Let's go to Jason in Georgia. Jason,
>> Mr. Kramer, it is an honor to be talking to you.
>> Well, thank you, Jason. I think I deserve it after what I've been through
in the last seven minutes. What's happening?
>> Listen, listen. I've watched you for years and I've wondered how the callers
get on and the next day I'm on. So, this is awesome. Well, there you go.
>> Hey, man. I know. And there's people in the phone room. The people in the phone
room, they should get Academy Awards. >> Absolutely. So there's been a lot of
talk about construction obviously these data centers and uh SpaceX and all of
this. Uh the other the other big part of that business is the construction rental
industries. So Sunbell Rentals wanted to get your uh opinion.
>> No, unless unless it's URI. This business is too hard. I've already
screwed up on a couple of rental companies. I'm not going to recommend
another rental company. The only one I wanted to say is that you is a winner.
That's it. Now we're going to go to Dan in Indiana. Dan,
>> super big boo Jim from Peru, Indiana, just south of Mexico. Home of Cole
Porter, one of your Harvard law lums. >> I loved Cole Porter.
>> I do. >> I'm asking about Super Micro Computing
Inc. I' I have dollar cost average from 52 to 32. It's sitting in the middle of
its 52- week highs. Every every time I have a big position, something shocks it
like Ernstston Young a couple years ago or this year the controversy about the
the chips being smuggled to China. So what do you think I should do?
>> Okay. I think that you know you want to go cold porter. I think it's sun at
supermicro. Anything goes and that's the problem. I don't like anything goes.
Okay. I do not get my kicks from super micro. All right. Absolutely not. And I
got I don't love super micro in the spring, summer, winter, or fall because
as far as I'm concerned, it's got accounting problems. It didn't matter.
There's bad accounting problems. It goes up three today. That's what's called a
short squeeze. I don't want to own Super Micro. Okay,
let's go to Let's go to Truman in California. Truman.
>> Hey Jim, it's Truman from California. long time, many times, but I'm calling
for the very last time >> as you've made a very you've made a very
lonely little credit union quant dream come true.
>> Compounding from May 2008 to February 2021, money I couldn't even dream about.
Uh, I've left the grind and I started my own home office in Boca Raton free and
clear just by keeping your just expanding on your styles, rules, and
policies. You can go home, hug your wife and said, "You made a man's dream come
true." Jim will she would come home, I would do it.
But that's great. >> It's a mitzvah. Maybe it's a mitzvah
that she >> It's a mitzvah. It's a mitzvah. David
talked about a bar mitzvah. Someone's stock was a bar mitzvah stock yesterday.
I don't know. Um, but that's very nice of you. It made my day because there's a
tough tough business that I'm in. Thank you. Y go ahead.
>> Yeah, I'm in it now. Now to the business at hand. Uh, love this stock. It's a
great social type of uh company. I think it's got synergies with another company.
Not even looking for a merger. I own both of them. But it's a twofer. It's
Reddit. And if Netflix could have synergies with it. Think about it before
you answer it. >> Okay. First of all, I I'm going to do
something really easy. I happen to like Netflix. I talked about that this
morning, very morning. And I think Reddit is such a buy at 166, it's
ridiculous. So, with or out, without synergy, you've got what I regard as
>> by that's how I feel. And thank you for the
kind comments. It kind of changed my view of today. And that, ladies and
gentlemen, is conclusion of the LIGHTNING ROUND.
>> The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. There's a right way and a wrong way to
do everything. So far, most of the data center builders have been doing it the
wrong way. You don't get hated so universally if
you're being smart about what it takes to build one of these warehouses full of
servers. Now that many states are rolling out new, maybe in some cases
arous regulations to slow down the data center buildout, it looks like the
companies that are building these things on spec will wither on the vine. So
let's go over how a modern trillion dollar hyperscaler should go about
building one. First, you have to take a page out of the new core playbook, the
largest steel company in the country. As hated as data centers might be, they're
not that disruptive to anything other than energy prices. Comparatively, it's
much worse to live next to a new core steel mill. Yet new has no trouble
citing them. People love them. Why? They pick down trout in places that really
need them with sky-high unemployment rates and thanks to de
de-industrialization there really feels like there's no hope. They go into these
towns and has to speak to people in authority to sit down with them. They
get the buy in of a whole town before they move in. It's a conversation.
Nothing by fiat. Oh, and they they come with money. The era where data center
builders can get incentives. That's over.
This is now an era where you got to be you you got to buy people off, okay? The
way oil companies do when they want acorage. Accept it. Consider it mineral
rights. Offer some that's reasonable to a city leadership, too, which can be
used to lower residents property taxes or fund other infrastructure. If they
ask for too much, okay, go to another town. At the same time, stop selling a
data center. Start selling a package. Most down and out towns recognize the
value of an education more of a two-year than a four-year. Why not create a
school? Yes, an actual school that goes for accreditation and have your data
center adjoin it for people to go from the school to help build the data
center. You pay people wages to go to the school. Most people think there are
no jobs once the data center is done. You prove them wrong by promising to
keep the school open for as long as the data center is in operation and use
those graduates at the next site. Electric bills. Uh, everyone within a
certain radius gets electricity for free. Full stop. Believe me, the
hyperscalers can afford it. Water. Okay, we all know that multiple companies have
the technology to solve this problem from the get-go. It is a canard, people.
Data centers don't even need to use water for cooling. It's just cheaper
than the alternatives. If they're starting to go with the alternatives, if
the locals don't believe you, move on. We saw water recycling with our own eyes
in Boise for Micron. It can be done. It really will be their loss if you turn if
they turn you down. That's how you have to think. You see, that's what the
hyperscalers need to do. Make an offer so good that the locals can't refuse.
Finally, get in a room. Hash out a code of conduct. Please make sure every tech
titan subscribes to it. Stop making fools of yourselves. As a final straw,
if you're willing, you can always take your bat and ball and go to Caretro in
Mexico where the hyperscalers are already uh doing a lot of building.
Amazon stand there big time. Great town, Caretro. Nice airport, good history.
Love it. Or you can continue to build out in poor towns on the border and just
skip America entirely. I bet the story will be quite different if you already
know that Mexico will welcome you with open arms. This time it isn't the
companies that are pulling up stakes and going to Mexico. It's the American towns
that are forcing the companies south of the border. Right at the border, you can
build them. Let them regret it, not you. But they'll only regret it if the
hyperscalers actually offer these communities something worth having. They
deserve it. Give it to them. I like to say there's always more market summary
pal just for your main money. I'm J members. See you tomorrow. >> All opinions expressed by Jim Kramer on
this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions
of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously
disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You
should not treat any opinion expressed by Kramer as a specific inducement to
make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an
expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he
considers reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates or subsidiaries warrant
its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To
view the full MadMoney disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney
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