Nvidia Reports Today — But Louie Just Made a Surprise Buy

Louisie just made a surprise stock buy this week. He's got a number on Nvidia nobody's saying out loud and auto stocks are stuck in a standoff that could hit your portfolio. Let's get into it. Welcome back to Navier Market buzz. Auto stocks sold off hard on the tariff threat. Is this a buying opportunity or a real earnings risk heading into next year? Well, I don't recommend the auto stocks, but GM and Ford have had very good results. I think near-term they're probably good buys, but this whole tiff we have with Canada is probably going to have to be negotiated by the auto industry. The reason there's such a big supply chain from Canada is their energy is cheaper and aluminum takes a lot of power to make. So, somebody like Ford is very dependent upon Canada for the aluminum body panels on the F-150, the aluminum engine blocks, and this is a disaster. I mean, they have to fix this. Now, it looks like Mark Carney, who's the the prime minister of Canada, is trying to influence the midterm elections, to be cand upset about this up there. And Doug Ford, who's the premier of Ontario, has even threatened to cut off America from electricity. You know, that has to be the stupidest thing ever because what are they going to do with it? There's nowhere else to send it. I mean, they can just let the rivers flows because the the reason they have so much electricity is all the hydroelectric they have. But Ontario is going to be the big loser here. If this persists, that means that the US auto industry will look for other supply chains. Now, as I understand it, the 50% tariff threat wouldn't kick in till January. So, it's just a threat. But this is stupid, okay? And I can't fix stupid. And obviously we don't get along with a with a Canadian prime minister. Obviously Doug Ford, the Ontario premier is very aggressive and this is all very sad. So hopefully cooler heads prevail and this gets worked out. And I can't imagine that if the auto industry approaches the Trump administration with more onshoring, I can't imagine a deal doesn't get done. But this seems to be very political at this moment. But if someone's holding on to auto names right now, are they writing this out or is there a level where you'd actually trim? No, >> I wouldn't trim. I think for GM have very very good earnings and if I had low basis in foreign GM, I wouldn't panic. Uh you know, they they make so much money on trucks that you know these companies are very well managed at this moment. >> Okay, so tariffs are a margin story, not just a headline. Speaking of margins, Nvidia's dealing with its own pricing story right now. There are reports that Nvidia may be raising GPU prices. What is the market reaction going to be? >> Well, that's been out there for a while and that just means that Nvidia is going to be able to sustain even more spectacular earnings growth. But yeah, Nvidia apparently contacted its biggest customers and told them there's going to be a price increase of about 15%. We'll learn more about this on Wednesday after Nvidia announces and obviously I'm expecting spectacular results. Sales are forecast to be up 97. earnings are forecast to be up 99. But as always, it'll always be about the guidance and you know, Nvidia is a very powerful company. It's 14% of our GDP last I look. So the fact that they're raising prices just means stronger earnings. >> So with earnings happening this week, what advice would you give to our viewers? I know that last week we talked about if you had money in the market right now, you'd put it into Nvidia and Micro. >> Yeah. No, definitely. And the video did consolidate a little earlier in the week, but both these stocks are screaming buys right now. In my opinion, they don't go up as much as their earnings go up. So, the P ratios keep getting compressed. Their forecast earnings are unbelievably strong as we look out. I still think Nvidia will be $300 by the end of this year and $500 by the end of the decade. Micron's just unbelievable. The cute memory shortage is going to last for 15 to 24 months. So, that's 5 to 8 quarters. Uh, so Micron's got a lot to look forward to and I just can't emphasize how wonderful both these companies are at this time. So yeah, load up on both. Any dip is a buying opportunity. >> So earnings will be very exciting this week. But speaking of things that move markets, Jackson Hole is happening, too. Why is the Kansas City Feds Jackson Hole Conference such a big deal for markets? >> Well, because it's an international event. Everybody comes there from everywhere. So, we'll have, you know, the European Central Bank there. We'll have the Bank of Canada there. I hope Scott Besset will be there. I haven't checked if he's going to be on the attendee list, but I hope he's there. And then Kevin Worsh will give a a very powerful speech on Friday. And I believe his speech is going to be how AI is not inflationary. And so, don't worry about, you know, our robust GDP growth in America. A lot of it's coming from productivity enhancements and efficiencies. So, that's not inflationary. as Jackson approaches, you know, treasury yields are meandering lower at this moment. So, that's a good sign. Okay. I don't think they'll talk a lot about the September FMC meeting because Jackson Hole is meant to give a longer term vision and everybody's just happy there. It's a gorgeous place, you know, and uh the media is happy. It's like an annual vacation for them. So, I do think that uh it'll rub off well on the market to to put it bluntly. So, if Worsh says what people are hoping for, what actually moves? Rates, stocks, or both? >> Well, all are important, but rates are meandering lower. So, that's helping stocks near-term. It's also helping a lot of dividend stocks firm up. Uh, because as rates go down, the dividend stocks naturally appreciate. But, you know, we're at the end of earning season. Nvidia is the grand finale and Micron will be the encore. And I just think we have to sit back and pinch ourselves to realize that the S&P had 50% earnings growth this quarter. That's just unbelievable. I think looking forward it will be hard to sustain that earnings momentum. You know, earnings are going to keep going higher, but not at a 50% pace. Some of the the bears on Wall Street will pick on that that earnings are decelerating. This is like going from 180 m an hour to 160 mph. We're still going fast. We're still growing and MP ratios are still being compressed. But the first half of September between Labor Day and September 15th is a tough period because a lot of people pay their estimated taxes and a lot of people underwhel early in the year. So comes midseptember they try to catch up. So we have to get through that seasonal weakness and then of course we'll have quarter and window dressing later in the month and that's the best time to invest the last week of September. Now there are a lot of developments with Iran right now. They want the war to end. They're having a lot of problems. So that's encouraging, but you know, they still don't want to talk to America, but hopefully through intermediaries and things that situation will get much better. >> All right, let's get into what you're all asking about. Cerebras verse AMD, how do they stack up against Nvidia and Intel? Is either investable right now? >> Yeah, but let let's be clear. Cerebus makes a very powerful AI chip. AMD makes AI chips, but Nvidia has the best modular chip system and has the most people using programming for Nvidia chips. So AMD will get some second tier AI projects. Nvidia will dominate the regenerative AI. Cerebus is chip is very powerful. It sucks up a lot of energy and they don't have a lot of programmers for it. So Nvidia is still dominating this ecosystem because they dominate the programmers. They're modular. They're more energy efficient. So if you need more power, you just have more chips. You just put them in an array. So the Cerebus model is interesting, but I think it has limited applications. And I do not want to own Cerebus at this time. I do own a >> So that's the chip fight, but here's a bigger fight. What the Treasury is doing with the yield curve. Does this flatten the yield curve? What does it do to credit conditions? And what's the actual read through for stocks? Well, first of all, this whole bond vigilante fight is really a global issue. The bond vigilantes have shoved yields up higher in Japan, Britain, France, and even Germany. Germany's borrowing more money now. Uh, you know, Germany's fiscally very responsible, but they are taking on debt now. So, the fact that our Treasury yields briefly backed up is not a big deal. Obviously, the 30 years we report on market buzz hit a a pretty high level, but Scott Bestad announced that in September they're going to be buying Treasury bonds back, reducing the float, and that's helping yields come down. Now, near-term, the Treasury yield looked a little flatter, but as I talked to, yields are going down across the board. So, it's still a very, very healthy yield curve. And the main reason I like Scott Bessett so much is Janet Yellen lost control of the yield curve back in 2020. If you bought, you know, TLT, that treasury bond ETF back then, you've lost over 50% of your money. Okay? Because uh yield spiked. And Scott Bessett is much better than Janet Yellen. He's not neglecting the long end of the curve. He's trying to manage it. And Scott Bessett's a very, very powerful person. you know, he he's the guy that made Soros a billion dollars one day, betting that the Bank of England would have to undo its currency peg and that allowed him to make a lot of money. So, everybody's scared of Besset internationally. And of course, he's just imposed horrific sanctions on Iran economically. That's why there may be a successful resolution of the Iran conflict, even though it has wound down dramatically. >> And now, some of you want to know where money might be rotating. We get a lot of questions on crypto. Dad, can you share with everyone what your opinion is on crypto? >> Sure. When the treasury's under attack or gold's having a hard day, you know, crypto can have a dead cat bounce and it did have a dead cat bounce, but I just would not invest in crypto period. You know, it's not my thing. I know Hamas and Hezbollah and the Hoodies use it uh because they're trying to hide the money and where they get it from. And you know, I'm sure you can legitimately use crypto, but to me, it's tainted. The reason the US wants to control the crypto trading is I guess if they want to go seize the money, they got to know where it is and it's better to have it in America versus India or Korea, wherever it might be traded. So, but I'm not a crypto guy. They did have an invention called a stable coin, which is a crypto that matches the US dollar. And and the reason they want to have stable coins is as money becomes more digital, it might make transferring money a little bit more efficient. You know, right now we do a transfers and zel and things like that. If the stable coin that's pegged to the dollar becomes popular, then we can uh have faster transactions. But otherwise, no. Other than the blockchain and the stable coin, I'm not really crazy about anything associated with crypto. >> Okay. Off crypto, we have a few single names people keep asking about. So, let's start out with SMCI. >> Yeah, it's one of Nvidia's biggest customers and uh they make the water cooled rack systems for the data centers. Uh they're ramping up production like everybody that supplies data centers are. Uh their forecasted sales and earnings are spectacular. The reason I never sold SMCI and I've been in it now for years and I think we're up 600% or so is that I just stuck to the fundamentals and when they got attacked by Citron and other short sellers, the analysts never changed earnings estimates. So I stayed with the stock. Same thing happened with Szle. They attacked sle when it went parabolic and the short sales are trying to prick that bubble or that strength and everything looked fine in szle. They're still reporting increasing sales and earnings. So I stick to the fundamentals. I keep my head down and I don't blink. And I got in supermarket really early. Uh they do have a co-founder who's no longer there who wasn't helping the companies. A little toxic when he talks, but the people running it now are great and it's a core holding of ours. What is your prediction on the final price of SMCI? >> Well, the longer I look, the fuzzier it gets, but based on the 100 plus percent sales and earnings growth that's in the pipeline for SMCI, they gave extremely strong guidance for the next quarter. Yeah, this stock's probably going to at least double uh from here. I don't officially set price targets. I realize I did on Nvidia, but I'm trying to help people. I'm going to be raising my decade long price target in a video probably, but let it get to 300 first and then I'll assess it for looking forward. But no, it's easily a double and that's just following the earnings higher. >> Now, let me ask you about a different stock that I don't think you've mentioned before, LU. Do you think that this is a good stock longterm? >> Here's where Luma is. Their sales are forecast to decline 11.6%. Their earnings are forecast to decline 7.4%. Uh the analysts have slashed their estimates in the last 7 days from -15 cents to minus21. So the only good thing I'm going to say about Lumina is they had a 50.5% surprise last quarter. Before that they had a huge disappointment. So there seems to be a communication problem between Lumina and the analyst community. And longer term it sales are eroding. So this is not going to hit my radar because of the negative forecast sales earnings and the fact the analysts are low in their estimates. So I'm going to avoid this stock. Here's another one that I don't think we've mentioned before. What are your opinions on TTM Technologies? >> Okay, for disclosure, we own TTMI and manage accounts and I recommend it in at least one of my newsletters. Their sales are forecast to be up 49.6%. Earnings are forecasted to be up 85.8%. The analyst community in the last month has raised their estimates from A110 a share to 125. And uh it has a a good surprise history. So yeah, lock and load on this stock. Uh it's hitting all my criteria. Ranks well in eight factor fundamental model and uh has a very very steady sales and earnings growth. >> And lastly, one everybody's been asking about what's going on with Oracle. >> Well, Oracle isn't recommended by me. You know, they are borrowing in the bond market and the private credit markets to fund their data center business. I think most of it's private credit. And Oracle was going to lease out the data centers. So, instead of having, you know, these long-term contracts, it's just not as exciting as some other stocks, but their sales are supposed to grow 28.2%. Their earnings are supposed to grow 18.3%. Now, because the earnings aren't growing as fast as sales, that means their margins are under compression a bit, but the analysts have raised their estimates from a $168 90 days ago to $1.74 today. So, that's good. And they do have a good surprise history. Larry Ellison is not the most likable guy. He's my neighbor in Malipan, but uh he doesn't always get the best press. I don't think he cares, you know, and it just doesn't hit every criteria because of the margin compression. So, if they give good guidance, I take it all back and Oracle will probably recover. But right now, there's better tech stocks. >> So, those are all your questions answered. But, Dad, is there anything new that got you excited this week? >> Yeah, all the news on the folding iPhone did get me excited. And for disclosure, I did buy Apple on that news. That was an audible. Apple doesn't rank as as high as my other stocks, but it's my opinion that the folding iPhone will be a hit. Obviously, these folding displays have been out for over seven years, but based on everything I've read, it will open up to be like an iPad mini. It will have a new operating system. And uh you'll be able to have two applications open at once. So, if you want to multitask, that's good. I believe it's going to be able to use a stylus for people that want to use that. And of course, there'll be a smaller screen on the outside as well. Uh, it's supposed to only have two cameras and won't have a telephoto lens. But yeah, for people that like to lay in bed and uh, watch YouTube or other shows, I guess it's going to be very popular. So, I'm very curious about the pricing. I'm sure it's going to be at least $2,500 and maybe $3,000 if you put a lot of memory on it. The iPhone 18 that's coming out is supposed to have a $300 price increase uh, because of higher memory costs. And Apple did have to raise the price of their iPads and MacBook Pros and everything a while ago because of memory cost. And the iPhone 18, it's supposed to have a dark cherry color, supposed to have a lighter blue. And we're going to get the new president of Apple doing the presentation. So September 9th is when all this gets revealed. I believe you'll be able to order it on the 11th or 12th of September. And it'll be fascinating that the supply chain can help with folding iPhone demands be called the iPhone Ultra. So I personally think it's going to be a big hit for Apple. That's why I bought the stock and I'm pretty excited about it. >> And the other thing about the folding iPhone is that each one is going to have its own battery. So, double battery life. >> Wow. Wow. Well, there you go. These folding OLED screens have gotten better. And apparently the people examining it were very impressed with the hinge, the quality of it. You know, the reason Apple has waited so long is they don't release anything until it's bulletproof because they can't have an error in their supply chain. and they can't have recalls. Obviously, the orders will build in September into the third quarter. Results should be spectacular. >> Well, let us know in the comments if you're looking forward to this new Apple update. Thank you all so much for helping us get to almost 30,000 subscribers. Once we hit that milestone, we will be doing another book giveaway for all of our new subscribers. So, thank you all so much for watching. As always, if you have any questions, leave them in the comments below. But we'll see you this Sunday for a new